WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Germany's Scholz calls Putin, ending Western isolation over Ukraine

Chancellor Olaf Scholz spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday for the first time in nearly two years as the German leader gears up for a snap election and Europe waits to hear Donald Trump's plan for ending the war in Ukraine.

In a phone call that was swiftly criticised by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, Scholz urged Putin to pull his forces out of Ukraine and begin talks with Kyiv that would open the way for a "just and lasting peace", the German government said.

The Kremlin said the conversation had come at Berlin's request, and that Putin had told Scholz any agreement to end the war in Ukraine must take Russian security interests into account and reflect "new territorial realities".

The call opened a "Pandora's box" by undermining efforts to isolate the Russian leader, Zelenskiy said. He and other European officials had cautioned Scholz against the move, according to sources familiar with the matter, who believed it was more for domestic consumption.

Facing a snap election on Feb. 23, Scholz's Social Democrats are coming under pressure from Russia-friendly populist parties on both sides of the political spectrum that argue the government has not deployed enough diplomacy to end the war.

"The chancellor urged Russia to show willingness to enter talks with Ukraine with the aim of achieving a just and lasting peace," a German government spokesperson said in a statement.

"He stressed Germany's unbroken determination to back Ukraine in its defence against Russian aggression for as long as necessary," the spokesperson added.

Ukraine said however that phone conversations with Putin brought no added value on the path to achieving a "just peace" in Ukraine but just help him weaken his isolation.

"Now there may be other conversations, other calls. Just a lot of words," said Zelenskiy in his evening address. "And this is exactly what Putin has long wanted: it is extremely important for him to weaken his isolation and to conduct ordinary negotiations."

The call comes in the week after Trump was elected as the next U.S. president. He has suggested he could put a swift end to the war, without explaining how, and repeatedly criticised the scale of Western financial and military aid for Kyiv.

"It sends a bad signal especially after Trump’s election," said one Western diplomat, noting their country had told Berlin it was not a good idea.

"My hope is that Scholz can now say to his electorate 'look, I have done it, and it’s a waste of time as Putin isn’t open to anything'. But of course, (it is a) question about how Russia spins it."

French President Emmanuel Macron does not have any talks scheduled with Putin, a source in his entourage said.

SCHOLZ TO BRIEF ALLIES

The Kremlin said Putin had told Scholz Russia was willing to look at energy deals if Germany was interested. Germany was heavily reliant on Russian gas before the war but direct shipments ceased when pipelines under the Baltic Sea were blown up in 2022.

Scholz plans to brief Zelenskiy, Germany's allies, partners and the heads of the European Union and NATO on the outcome of Friday's call, German officials said. Putin and Scholz agreed to stay in contact, they added.

Ukraine is facing increasingly difficult conditions on the frontlines in its east amid shortages of arms and personnel, while Russian forces make steady advances.

A separate German government official said Scholz had told Putin the deployment of North Korean troops to Russia for combat missions against Ukraine was seen as a serious escalation and expansion of the conflict.

Zelenskiy says North Korea has 11,000 troops in Russia and that some have suffered casualties in combat with Ukrainian forces which are currently occupying territory in Russia's southern Kursk region.

Germany has given Ukraine a total of 15 billion euros in financial, humanitarian and military support since the start of the full-scale war, making it Kyiv's second-largest backer after the United States.

The future of U.S. aid to Ukraine is unclear following Trump's election victory.

Scholz and Putin last spoke in December 2022, 10 months after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, plunging relations with the West into their deepest freeze since the Cold War.

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

Kremlin confirms call with Germany’s Scholz

Russian President Vladimir Putin and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz spoke by phone on Friday, their first direct contact in almost two years, the Kremlin has confirmed, saying that the Ukraine crisis was the primary topic of the conversation.

According to the Kremlin statement, Putin and Scholz last spoke directly in December 2022. During Friday’s call, which Moscow said was initiated by the German side, the two leaders held a “detailed and frank exchange of views on the situation in Ukraine.”

Putin told Scholz that the current crisis was "a direct result of NATO’s long-standing aggressive policy aimed at creating an anti-Russian bridgehead on Ukrainian territory, while ignoring our country’s interests in the field of security and trampling on the rights of Russian-speaking residents,” the Kremlin said.

Discussing the prospects for a political and diplomatic resolution to the conflict, the Russian president said Moscow has never refused to hold peace negotiations with Kiev and remains open to relaunching talks, which had previously been shut down by the Ukrainian side.

Putin noted, however, that any potential settlements between Moscow and Kiev should take into account Russia’s interests in the sphere of security, as well as the new territorial realities, and “eliminate the root causes of the conflict.”

The two leaders also discussed Russian-German relations, with Putin saying that their"unprecedented degradation" was the result of "unfriendly policies" implemented by Berlin. Moscow, meanwhile, has always adhered to both its treaty and contractual obligations in the energy sector and remains ready for mutually beneficial cooperation, Putin said.
The leaders also discussed tensions in the Middle East and efforts to find peaceful resolutions to the crisis in the region, the Kremlin said. Following their conversation, Putin and Scholz agreed to remain in touch, it added.

German officials also confirmed the talks, reporting that during the phone call, Scholz urged Putin to end the Ukraine conflict and “withdraw his troops.”
According to German government spokesman Steffen Hebestreit, the Chancellor “insisted on Russia’s readiness to negotiate with Ukraine in order to achieve a fair and lasting peace” and spoke of Berlin’s “unwavering determination” to support Kiev “as long as necessary.”

Reuters/RT

Has it ever occurred to you that you are after all just one person? As the great humorist and philanthropist extra-ordinary MKO Abiola used to say: “No one is a ‘four-man” [foreman]. “It is sheer flattery to call a man ‘four man’” he used to quip.

And really and truly, no one is ever more than one.

People who hold offices and find themselves surrounded by retinue of servants and hangers- on get so carried away that they hardly ever have time to reflect on their positions in life. When a man gets down from his car and about a dozen people jostle to carry his handbag, he thinks that he is greater than the rest of the world put together. He gets so swollen headed and gets himself puffed up like a balloon. In that circumstance, he imagines himself to be more than what he really is: one person!

This piece has become necessary in view of the nauseating display of opulence by the privileged few in the society, who believe, wrongly though, that life is a straight line and there would never be fluctuations in their life situation.

People elected into offices or appointed into positions get so carried away that in their daily dealings with their subordinates they exhibit an air of ‘I know it all’. In discussions on any subject under the sun, they parade themselves as if they are masters of all disciplines. A governor, who was a school drop-out a few years back, would be talking about aviation as if he was professor of aeronautical engineering.

A governor would be talking down members of his cabinet which may include professors and Senior Advocates as if he was an authority on electricity, engineering, medicine, hydro-dynamics and even molecular science. At that point in time, the governor sees himself as a compound of all those disciplines. He no longer sees himself as one person limited by the natural matter of being just a human being. One person!

Traditional rulers who see themselves as representatives of Deities on earth really behave as if they are individually more than just one individual. No single person is 2 persons whatever the enormity and scope of the powers possessed by that individual. The case of traditional rulers is very peculiar in the sense that but for a serious misdemeanour, a King knows that he may hold his inherited position for life. And because he is blind to a consideration that his exalted position may change, he continues to behave as if he is more than one person. In fact, because he is addressed in the third person, he himself is deluded to the extent that he uses the plural noun or pronoun for himself. In speeches he talks of himself as ‘We’.

I believe it is important for every mortal to carry out the following simple exercise every morning: Go into your bathroom and strip yourself naked. Look around you. What do you see? If there is a giant mirror in your bathroom, for those who worship vanity, look at every anatomical detail in your physique. Look at your belly. Look at your buttocks. Look at your legs that are either swollen or are like the legs of mosquito. Look at the structure of those legs. Now you know you are alone with your two eyes and two lobes of ears. See how lonesome you are. See how much alone you are. In that moment, you are stripped of power and importance. You are just a lump of flesh mounted on a collection of bones architecturally put together by the Almighty Supreme Intelligence. It is just you. The lone you. Let your mind quickly race through what you have done in the last 24 hours and what you intend to do in the next 24 hours. Remember how you came into the world stark naked. Remember how you are pulled out of the womb or got pushed out by your mother’s powerful breath. What do you see?

At the end of the day, that is all you are. One person in his natural ordinariness.

Nothing brings forth the reality of just being one person than the situation a 4-star General in the Military finds himself when he is retired or retires from active service. A once dreaded, heavily moustached fire-spitting top Military officer is now a powerless individual queuing up in the bank or at a gas station like every other common individual. At the time he was in service, he saw himself as a battalion. In fact if he was a General Officer commanding a Division, he might equate his power and his person to the entire officers and men of the Division.

It was like the situation of some Emperors of old who considered themselves to be the State. To them, they were the State, and the State was them.

But this was a false and self-serving idea. And by the time such Emperors crashed, it was too late for them to come to terms with the reality of their absurdity. Either they got their heads chopped off or got seriously disgraced and humiliated as they were cut to size.

There is eternal wisdom and attendant joy in realising that we are actually not more than what Nature meant us to be. Power, position, influence and affluence are mere decorations to the body. They are all temporary acquisitions that are not skin deep. They do not make a person to grow into two persons, left alone to make he feel that he is bigger than a whole city, community or country.

All those parading the corridors of power and those who actually occupy the bed-room of power should bear in mind at all times that the power they hold and wield is a mere gown which can be removed from their bodies by the same process that put the garment on them. And when the garment is removed, it is the naked lonesome man in the bathroom that you are.

This reality may even be made more pungent when you pay a visit to the mortuary. It is in the mortuary that you are confronted with the sight of great men and women of yesterday being tossed up and down in the frozen cubicles they are confined to in their lockers. Alone. Dead alone.

Now, the breath of life is still going in and out of your nostrils. You think you are god. You think the whole world is at your feet. And you behave as if you are a million persons rolled into one.

When power leaves you, and position relocates to the man next door, you will discover to your chagrin that the multitude milling round you, and which made you think that you were more than what you were, would disappear.

Have you seen some former Presidents lately? Have you seen some once powerful boxing world champions? Have you lately run into some former Military Governors? Have you run into some past richest men in their communities?

What did you see? One man or ‘four man’?

Overview of the Ruling

The Supreme Court of Nigeria has delivered a landmark judgment dismissing a challenge by 19 state governments against the constitutional validity of federal anti-corruption agencies - the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), Independent Corrupt Practices Commission (ICPC), and Nigerian Financial Intelligence Unit (NFIU).

Key Legal and Constitutional Issues

The States' Arguments

1. Constitutional Challenge

   - The states argued that the establishment of these agencies violated Nigeria's federal structure

   - They cited a 2004 Supreme Court precedent requiring international conventions to receive majority approval from state assemblies

   - The argument centered on the UN Convention against Corruption, which influenced the EFCC Act

The Court's Response

1. Constitutional Validity

   - The Court upheld the federal government's authority to establish anti-corruption agencies

   - Reaffirmed that state laws cannot override federal legislation in this domain

   - Referenced existing precedent (AG Ondo v. AG Federation) supporting federal anti-corruption powers

Implications for Nigerian Federalism

Balance of Power

1. Federal Supremacy

   - The ruling strengthens federal oversight of corruption matters

   - Establishes clear hierarchical relationship between federal and state anti-corruption laws

   - Reinforces the principle that states cannot legislate to diminish federal anti-corruption powers

2. State Authority

   - While states retain legislative powers, these must align with federal anti-corruption frameworks

   - The ruling limits states' ability to shield officials from federal investigation

   - Creates a more unified approach to fighting corruption

Impact on Anti-Corruption Efforts

Strengthened Framework

1. Institutional Authority

   - Validates and protects the operational mandate of EFCC, ICPC, and NFIU

   - Removes legal uncertainty about their investigative powers

   - Prevents potential balkanization of anti-corruption efforts

2. Political Implications

   - The Court's characterization of the suit as "selfish" sends a strong message

   - Demonstrates judicial support for centralized anti-corruption efforts

   - May deter future attempts to weaken federal anti-corruption agencies

Notable Political Fallout

1. Internal State Discord

   - Benue State's suspension of its Attorney General highlights political sensitivities

   - Multiple states withdrew from the suit, suggesting shifting political calculations

   - Reveals tensions between state executives and their legal officers

Conclusion

The Supreme Court's ruling represents a significant victory for Nigeria's anti-corruption framework. By dismissing the states' challenge and explicitly rebuking attempts to weaken federal oversight, the Court has:

- Reinforced the federal government's constitutional authority to fight corruption

- Protected the operational independence of anti-corruption agencies

- Demonstrated judicial commitment to maintaining strong anti-corruption mechanisms

- Created a clearer legal framework for federal-state cooperation in fighting corruption

The judgment strikes a balance between federalism and the need for coordinated anti-corruption efforts, ultimately strengthening Nigeria's institutional capacity to combat corruption.

The Federal Government of Nigeria has proposed a N47.9 trillion budget for 2025, marking a substantial increase from the N28.7 trillion approved for the 2024 fiscal year.

During a press briefing following the Federal Executive Council (FEC) meeting chaired by President Bola Tinubu, the Minister of Budget and Economic Planning, Atiku Bagudu, unveiled the Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) for 2025-2027. The new proposal represents a 67% increase from the 2024 budget, reflecting the government's expanded fiscal projections.

Key parameters for the 2025 budget include a crude oil benchmark price of $75 per barrel and projected oil production of 2.06 million barrels per day, compared to the 2024 budget's $77.96 per barrel and 1.78 million bpd. The significant change in exchange rate assumptions—from N750/$1 in 2024 to N1,400/$1 for 2025—reflects recent currency market realities.

The government's ambitious GDP growth target of 6.4% for 2025 shows increased optimism compared to the 3.76% projected for 2024. This comes as the administration continues to implement various economic reforms initiated in 2024, including fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate unification.

Nigeria's state oil firm NNPC said on Thursday it had increased oil production to 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd), with the possibility of getting to two million bpd by year-end.

Oil production at Africa's top crude exporter was estimated at 1.3 million bpd in October, according to producer group OPEC's latest report. Nigeria often counts condensate production of around 250,000 bpd as part of its production.

The NNPC said the increase was a result of collaborative efforts with its joint venture operators and its partners on production-sharing contracts, alongside security agencies and the government.

"The team has done a great job in driving this project of not just production recovery but also escalating production to expected levels that are in the short and long terms acceptable to our shareholders," NNPC CEO Mele Kyari told a press briefing.

Nigeria has been battling crude theft in its Niger Delta production region, sabotage, and local unrest, which has hampered output growth.

In June, NNPC set up a 'war room' to coordinate efforts of oil partners, the government and private security personnel to stem crude theft. Since then, several vessels used in stealing crude have been destroyed and some illegal refiners arrested.

Kyari said the interventions across every segment of the production chain, supported by rigorous pipeline monitoring from security agencies, had been critical to the recovery.

Reuters

MultiChoice Group Limited has written off $21m deposited in Nigeria’s Heritage Bank following the financial institution’s liquidation earlier this year.

This disclosure was contained in the company’s interim financial statements for the half-year ending September 30, 2024.

The sum was classified as irrecoverable after the Central Bank of Nigeria revoked Heritage Bank’s operating licence, effectively shutting down the institution.

The financial statement document read, “Following the revocation of Heritage Bank’s banking licence by the Central Bank of Nigeria on 3 June 2024 and its subsequent liquidation, the group wrote-off its receivable relating to the cash held with the bank.”

MultiChoice’s decision to write off the funds underlines the difficulties faced by businesses navigating Nigeria’s financial sector, particularly amidst an unstable economic climate.

Nigeria remains a challenging terrain for MultiChoice, with the group grappling with soaring inflation, and a continuously depreciating naira.

The company also reported lower cash remittances from Nigeria, extracting only $65m during the period under review, compared to $91m in the same period last year.

Exchange rate losses further compounded the financial strain on the group’s operations in its largest African market.

It noted, “The further depreciation of the naira against the US dollar has resulted in further foreign exchange losses on non-quasi equity loans (on the USD-denominated intergroup loan from MultiChoice Africa Holdings B.V. to MultiChoice Nigeria Limited), contributing to the ZAR2.1bn (1H FY24: ZAR2.4bn) recognised in the condensed consolidated income statement.

“The group extracted USD65m from Nigeria in the period (1H FY24: USD91m) at an average rate of NGN1,516:USD (1H FY24: NGN794:USD), incurring extraction losses of USD1m or ZAR20m (1H FY24: USD28m or ZAR518m) in the process.

“The group held USD11m in cash in Nigeria at period-end, down from USD39m at end FY24, a consequence of consistent focus on remitting cash, the impact of translating the balance at the weaker naira and the write-off of the USD21m receivable relating to the cash held with Heritage Bank before its license was revoked and the bank was liquidated.”

The firm also noted that Nigeria accounted for 63 per cent of the MultiChoice Group’s subscriber losses in its Rest of Africa segment since FY23.

The decline, largely driven by severe economic pressures including inflation and the weakening naira, highlights Nigeria’s substantial contribution to the overall reduction in the subscriber base.

From FY23 to 1H FY25, active subscribers in the Rest of Africa dropped significantly, with Nigeria showing a net loss of 1.1 million.

Multichoice Group, owners of DSTV, had earlier said that it had an account balance of N31.6bn with Heritage Bank, before the bank’s liquidation.

Nigeria Deposit Insurance Corporation announced plans to sell off properties and assets belonging to the defunct Heritage Bank in a bid to recover funds for uninsured depositors.

This move, which the NDIC describes as crucial, is part of its statutory mandate as the liquidator of failed banks under Section 62(1)(d) of the NDIC Act, 2023.

The exercise, scheduled to begin on December 4, 2024 will involve competitive bidding for the bank’s landed properties and chattels located at 36 sites nationwide.

Punch

“After 970 days of war,” said Lloyd Austin, America’s defence secretary, visiting Kyiv on October 21st, “Putin has not achieved one single strategic objective.” And Mr Austin offered confidence: “Moscow will never prevail in Ukraine.” In private, however, his colleagues in the Pentagon, Western officials and many Ukrainian commanders are increasingly worried about the direction of the war and Ukraine’s ability to hold back Russian advances over the next six months.

Ukrainian forces have managed to hold on to Pokrovsk, an embattled town in the eastern Donbas region—an embarrassment for Mr Putin. But elsewhere along the front, Russia is slicing its way through Ukrainian defences. In Kupiansk in the north, its troops have cut Ukrainian formations in two at the Oskil river. In Chasiv Yar in the east, they have crossed the main Siverskyi Donets canal, after six months of trying. Farther south, Russian troops have taken high ground in and around Vuhledar, and they are moving in on Kurakhove from two directions. In Kursk, inside Russia, Ukraine has lost around half the territory it seized earlier this year.

The problem is not so much the loss of territory, which is limited and has come at enormous cost to Russia—600,000 dead and wounded since the start of the war, on American estimates, and 57,000 dead this year to October alone, according to Ukrainian intelligence. It is the steady erosion in the size and quality of Ukraine’s forces. Ukrainian units are under-strength and overstretched, worn thin by heavy casualties. Despite a new mobilisation law that took effect in May, the army, outside a handful of brigades, has struggled to recruit enough replacements, with young men reluctant to sign up to tours of duty that are at best indefinite and, at worst, one-way missions. Western partners are privately urging Ukraine’s leaders to lower the mobilisation age floor from 25 to increase the potential pool of recruits. But political sensitivities and fears over an already alarming demographic crisis stand in the way of any change.

In a recent essay, Jack Watling of the Royal United Services Institute, a think-tank in London, identifies several reasons for Ukraine’s declining fortunes. One is a shortfall in its air-defence interceptors, allowing Russian reconnaissance drones to establish what he calls “continuous and dense surveillance”. These in turn cue up ballistic-missile and drone strikes against Ukrainian artillery in the rear and glide bombs against troops at the front, allowing Russia to make slow but steady advances in small units, often using motorcycles because tanks are too easy to spot. Ukraine’s limited stock of shells—Russia currently has a two-to-one advantage in shellfire, according to Ivan Havrilyuk, Ukraine’s deputy defence minister—as well as tanks and armoured vehicles compounds that problem. The less firepower and armour are available, the greater the reliance on infantry and the greater the casualties.

Russia is not without its own serious problems. Next year it will spend a third of its national budget on defence, starving the civilian economy in the process. Inflation is perhaps double the official annual rate of more than 8%. In 2025 ordinary Russian families will begin to feel the economic pain for the first time, says a European intelligence official, adding that there are early signs of war fatigue among those closely connected to the conflict, such as mothers and other family members.

On the battlefield, Russia still relies on crude tactics that result in massive casualties. The decision to borrow thousands of North Korean troops, who are thought to be bound for the Kursk front, shows that Russian units are also stretched. Russia’s general staff and defence ministry have put “heavy pressure” on the Kremlin to mobilise more men, says the European official. “Russia now doesn’t have sufficient forces to mass,” says a senior NATO official. “If they achieved a breakthrough they could not exploit it.” There is little short-term risk of Russian troops streaming west to Dnipro or Odessa.

But the crisis in Russia’s war economy is likely to play out over a longer period. Russia’s defence industry depends in part on the refurbishment of Soviet-era stocks, which are getting low in critical areas such as armoured vehicles. It is nonetheless far outperforming Western production lines. The EU claims to be making more than 1m shells per year; Russia is making three times as many, and is also boosted by supplies from North Korea and Iran. “I just don’t know we can produce enough, give enough,” says a person familiar with the flow of American aid, though a recent $800m commitment to boost Ukraine’s indigenous drone production is welcome. “We have no more to give them without taking serious risks in other places.” On manpower, too, Russia remains solvent. Its army is recruiting around 30,000 men per month, says the NATO official. That is less than government targets, but is still enough to cover even the gargantuan losses of recent months.

Russia cannot fight for ever. But the worry among American, European and Ukrainian officials is that Ukraine’s breaking point will come first. “Moscow seems to be wagering that it can achieve its objectives in the Donbas next year,” writes Mr Watling, “and impose a rate of casualties and material degradation on the Ukrainian military high enough that it will no longer be capable of preventing further advances.” That, he warns, would give Russia leverage in any negotiations that follow.

The gloomy mood is evident in a shift in America’s language. Senior officials like Mr Austin still strike a confident note, promising that Ukraine will win. Those involved in the guts of planning in the Pentagon say that, in practice, the ambitions of early 2023—a Ukrainian force that could take back its territory or shock Russia into talks through a well-crafted armoured punch—have given way to a narrow focus on preventing defeat. “At this point we are thinking more and more about how Ukraine can survive,” says a person involved in that planning.

Lebanese ceasefire efforts inch ahead as Israel keeps up fierce bombardment

Diplomacy aimed at securing a ceasefire in Lebanon showed tentative signs of progress on Thursday as Israel pounded its northern neighbour including heavy airstrikes on the stronghold of armed group Hezbollah near Beirut.

Pressing its offensive against the Iran-backed group, Israel hit Beirut's Hezbollah-controlled southern suburbs, carrying out intense attacks there for a third consecutive day.

Plumes of smoke rose over the suburbs known as Dahiyeh, where Israeli strikes destroyed five buildings, sources familiar with the damage said. “We say God help us," said Ayat, a 33-year-old Lebanese woman.

The Israeli military said its fighter jets targeted weapons warehouses, military headquarters and other Hezbollah sites.

In addition, Israeli strikes in the eastern city of Baalbek killed at least 20 people while 11 died in Israeli aerial bombardment of towns in southern Lebanon, authorities and Lebanon’s National News Agency said.

In a more hopeful sign, the U.S. ambassador to Lebanon on Thursday submitted a draft truce proposal to Lebanon's parliament speaker Nabih Berri, two senior Lebanese political sources told Reuters, without providing details.

The draft was Washington's first written proposal to halt fighting between Israel and Hezbollah in at least several weeks, the sources said.

"It is a draft to get observations from the Lebanese side," one of the sources told Reuters. When asked about the proposal, a spokesperson for the U.S. Embassy in Beirut said, “Efforts to reach a diplomatic deal are ongoing.”

PROMISING SIGNS

Hopes have been buoyed before, notably late last month when Lebanon's prime minister expressed optimism a ceasefire could be reached before the end of October.

At that time, sources said it would entail an initial 60-day truce with Israel withdrawing forces from Lebanon in the first week. A permanent ceasefire would follow based on implementation of United Nations resolutions.

In Israel, Eli Cohen, the country's energy minister and a member of its security cabinet, on Thursday said prospects for a ceasefire were the most promising since the conflict began.

He told Reuters: "I think we are at a point that we are closer to an arrangement than we have been since the start of the war".

The Biden administration is making a push for peace in the waning time before President-elect Donald Trump takes office in January.

Meanwhile, the Washington Post reported that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was rushing to advance a Lebanon ceasefire with the aim of delivering an early foreign policy win to Trump, who is expected to be strongly pro-Israel.

Months of U.S. efforts to broker a deal between Washington's ally Israel and Hezbollah have so far failed. Israel launched a stepped-up air and ground campaign in Lebanon in late September after nearly a year of cross-border clashes in parallel with the Gaza war.

In another potentially promising sign, a senior Lebanese official signalled that Hezbollah would pull its forces away from the Lebanese-Israeli border under a ceasefire.

The official, Ali Hassan Khalil, told Al Jazeera late on Wednesday that Lebanese negotiators had reached agreement on "a certain text" with White House envoy Amos Hochstein during his last visit to Beirut in late October.

Hochstein had been due to communicate this to the Israeli side and then send any remarks back to Beirut, Khalil said. "We are waiting, and God willing, soon there will be the draft that he has reached," he said.

A key sticking point for Israel, Cohen said, is ensuring it retains freedom to act should Hezbollah return to border areas. Khalil rejected this demand.

IMPLEMENTING UN RESOLUTION

He said Lebanon was ready to "precisely" implement U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701, which ended a 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah.

Its terms require Hezbollah to remove fighters and weapons from areas between the border and the Litani River, which runs about 30 km (around 20 miles) from Lebanon's southern border.

The U.S. and other powers say a ceasefire must be based on Resolution 1701.

After 2006, Israel complained Hezbollah fighters and weapons remained in the border are while Lebanon accused Israel of violating the resolution by sending warplanes into its airspace.

The United Nations would bolster its peacekeeping mission in Lebanon to support the Lebanese army during a truce but would not directly enforce a ceasefire, U.N. peacekeeping chief Jean-Pierre Lacroix said on Thursday.

Khalil said Lebanon had no objection to U.S. or French participation in overseeing ceasefire compliance.

A World Bank report estimated the cost of physical damage and economic losses due to the conflict in Lebanon at $8.5 billion - a massive price for a country still suffering the effects of a financial collapse five years ago.

According to Lebanon's health ministry, Israeli attacks have killed at least 3,386 people through Wednesday since Oct. 7, 2023.

Hezbollah attacks have killed about 100 civilians and soldiers in northern Israel, the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights and southern Lebanon over the last year, according to Israel.

Reuters

WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Ukraine is now struggling to cling on, not to win

“After 970 days of war,” said Lloyd Austin, America’s defence secretary, visiting Kyiv on October 21st, “Putin has not achieved one single strategic objective.” And Mr Austin offered confidence: “Moscow will never prevail in Ukraine.” In private, however, his colleagues in the Pentagon, Western officials and many Ukrainian commanders are increasingly worried about the direction of the war and Ukraine’s ability to hold back Russian advances over the next six months.

Ukrainian forces have managed to hold on to Pokrovsk, an embattled town in the eastern Donbas region—an embarrassment for Mr Putin. But elsewhere along the front, Russia is slicing its way through Ukrainian defences. In Kupiansk in the north, its troops have cut Ukrainian formations in two at the Oskil river. In Chasiv Yar in the east, they have crossed the main Siverskyi Donets canal, after six months of trying. Farther south, Russian troops have taken high ground in and around Vuhledar, and they are moving in on Kurakhove from two directions. In Kursk, inside Russia, Ukraine has lost around half the territory it seized earlier this year.

The problem is not so much the loss of territory, which is limited and has come at enormous cost to Russia—600,000 dead and wounded since the start of the war, on American estimates, and 57,000 dead this year to October alone, according to Ukrainian intelligence. It is the steady erosion in the size and quality of Ukraine’s forces. Ukrainian units are under-strength and overstretched, worn thin by heavy casualties. Despite a new mobilisation law that took effect in May, the army, outside a handful of brigades, has struggled to recruit enough replacements, with young men reluctant to sign up to tours of duty that are at best indefinite and, at worst, one-way missions. Western partners are privately urging Ukraine’s leaders to lower the mobilisation age floor from 25 to increase the potential pool of recruits. But political sensitivities and fears over an already alarming demographic crisis stand in the way of any change.

In a recent essay, Jack Watling of the Royal United Services Institute, a think-tank in London, identifies several reasons for Ukraine’s declining fortunes. One is a shortfall in its air-defence interceptors, allowing Russian reconnaissance drones to establish what he calls “continuous and dense surveillance”. These in turn cue up ballistic-missile and drone strikes against Ukrainian artillery in the rear and glide bombs against troops at the front, allowing Russia to make slow but steady advances in small units, often using motorcycles because tanks are too easy to spot. Ukraine’s limited stock of shells—Russia currently has a two-to-one advantage in shellfire, according to Ivan Havrilyuk, Ukraine’s deputy defence minister—as well as tanks and armoured vehicles compounds that problem. The less firepower and armour are available, the greater the reliance on infantry and the greater the casualties.

Russia is not without its own serious problems. Next year it will spend a third of its national budget on defence, starving the civilian economy in the process. Inflation is perhaps double the official annual rate of more than 8%. In 2025 ordinary Russian families will begin to feel the economic pain for the first time, says a European intelligence official, adding that there are early signs of war fatigue among those closely connected to the conflict, such as mothers and other family members.

On the battlefield, Russia still relies on crude tactics that result in massive casualties. The decision to borrow thousands of North Korean troops, who are thought to be bound for the Kursk front, shows that Russian units are also stretched. Russia’s general staff and defence ministry have put “heavy pressure” on the Kremlin to mobilise more men, says the European official. “Russia now doesn’t have sufficient forces to mass,” says a senior NATO official. “If they achieved a breakthrough they could not exploit it.” There is little short-term risk of Russian troops streaming west to Dnipro or Odessa.

But the crisis in Russia’s war economy is likely to play out over a longer period. Russia’s defence industry depends in part on the refurbishment of Soviet-era stocks, which are getting low in critical areas such as armoured vehicles. It is nonetheless far outperforming Western production lines. The EU claims to be making more than 1m shells per year; Russia is making three times as many, and is also boosted by supplies from North Korea and Iran. “I just don’t know we can produce enough, give enough,” says a person familiar with the flow of American aid, though a recent $800m commitment to boost Ukraine’s indigenous drone production is welcome. “We have no more to give them without taking serious risks in other places.” On manpower, too, Russia remains solvent. Its army is recruiting around 30,000 men per month, says the NATO official. That is less than government targets, but is still enough to cover even the gargantuan losses of recent months.

Russia cannot fight for ever. But the worry among American, European and Ukrainian officials is that Ukraine’s breaking point will come first. “Moscow seems to be wagering that it can achieve its objectives in the Donbas next year,” writes Mr Watling, “and impose a rate of casualties and material degradation on the Ukrainian military high enough that it will no longer be capable of preventing further advances.” That, he warns, would give Russia leverage in any negotiations that follow.

The gloomy mood is evident in a shift in America’s language. Senior officials like Mr Austin still strike a confident note, promising that Ukraine will win. Those involved in the guts of planning in the Pentagon say that, in practice, the ambitions of early 2023—a Ukrainian force that could take back its territory or shock Russia into talks through a well-crafted armoured punch—have given way to a narrow focus on preventing defeat. “At this point we are thinking more and more about how Ukraine can survive,” says a person involved in that planning.

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

Russian forces liberate Voznesenka community in Donbass region over past day

Russian forces liberated the community of Voznesenka in the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) over the past 24 hours in the special military operation in Ukraine, Russia’s Defense Ministry reported on Thursday.

"Battlegroup Center units kept advancing deep into the enemy’s defenses and liberated the settlement of Voznesenka in the Donetsk People’s Republic," the ministry said in a statement.

Russia’s Battlegroup North inflicts 80 casualties on Ukrainian army in Kharkov area

Russia’s Battlegroup North inflicted roughly 80 casualties on Ukrainian troops and destroyed two enemy armored vehicles in its area of responsibility in the Kharkov Region over the past 24 hours, the ministry reported.

"Battlegroup North units inflicted losses in the Kharkov direction on formations of the Ukrainian army’s 71st jaeger, 113th and 120th territorial defense brigades in areas near the settlements of Volchansk and Liptsy in the Kharkov Region," the ministry said.

The Ukrainian army’s losses in that frontline area over the past 24 hours amounted to 80 personnel, two armored combat vehicles and seven motor vehicles, it specified.

Russia’s Battlegroup West inflicts 570 casualties on Ukrainian army over past day

Russia’s Battlegroup West inflicted roughly 570 casualties on Ukrainian troops and destroyed three enemy ammunition depots in its area of responsibility over the past day, the ministry reported.

"Battlegroup West units improved their tactical position and struck manpower and equipment of the Ukrainian army’s 14th, 60th and 116th mechanized, 25th air assault, 119th and 241st territorial defense and 1st National Guard brigades near Terny in the Donetsk People’s Republic, Zagryzovo, Lozovaya, Boguslavka, Kovsharovka and Petropavlovka in the Kharkov Region and in the area of the Serebryanka forestry. They repelled two counterattacks by formations of the Ukrainian army’s 14th and 28th mechanized brigades," the ministry said.

The Ukrainian army’s losses in that frontline area over the past 24 hours amounted to 570 personnel, an infantry fighting vehicle, a US-made M113 armored personnel carrier, seven motor vehicles, two 122mm D-30 howitzers, four Anklav-N and Kvertus electronic warfare stations and a Plastun radio-electronic surveillance station, it specified.

In addition, Russian forces destroyed three field ammunition depots of the Ukrainian army, it said.

Russia’s Battlegroup South inflicts 655 casualties on Ukrainian troops over past day

Russia’s Battlegroup South inflicted roughly 655 casualties on Ukrainian troops and destroyed three enemy tanks in its area of responsibility over the past day, the ministry reported.

"Battlegroup South units improved their frontline positions and inflicted casualties on formations of the Ukrainian army’s 30th, 33rd, 56th and 81st mechanized, 56th motorized infantry, 46th airmobile, 79th air assault and 116th territorial defense brigades near the settlements of Zaliznyanskoye, Druzhkovka, Dyleyevka, Orekhovo-Vasilevka, Reznikovka, Kurakhovo, Annovka and Seversk in the Donetsk People’s Republic," the ministry said.

The Ukrainian army lost 655 personnel, three tanks, an infantry fighting vehicle, an armored personnel carrier, 13 motor vehicles, a British-made 155mm Braveheart self-propelled artillery system, a Polish-manufactured 155mm Krab self-propelled artillery system, a 155mm M777 howitzer and a 105mm M119 artillery gun of US manufacture, two 122mm D-30 howitzers and a Croatian-made RAK-SA-12 multiple rocket launcher, it specified.

In addition, Russian forces destroyed two Anklav-N electronic warfare stations, a Plastun radio-electronic surveillance station and two ammunition depots of the Ukrainian army, it said.

Russia’s Battlegroup Center inflicts over 485 casualties on Ukrainian army in past day

Russia’s Battlegroup Center inflicted more than 485 casualties on Ukrainian troops and destroyed a German-made combat vehicle in its area of responsibility over the past day, the ministry reported.

Battlegroup Center units "inflicted losses on manpower and equipment of the Ukrainian army’s 33rd, 53rd, 100th and 109th mechanized, 95th air assault, 5th mountain assault, 142nd infantry and 101st territorial defense brigades near the settlements of Zelyonoye Pole, Leonidovka, Druzhba, Dzerzhinsk, Sukhaya Balka and Dimitrov in the Donetsk People’s Republic. They repelled 11 counterattacks by formations of the Ukrainian army’s 53rd and 117th mechanized and 152nd jaeger brigades, 49th and 425th assault battalions, 35th and 38th marine infantry brigades," the ministry said.

The Ukrainian army’s losses in that frontline area over the past 24 hours amounted to more than 485 personnel, a German-made Marder infantry fighting vehicle, five Kozak armored combat vehicles, a Turkish-made Kirpi armored fighting vehicle, five motor vehicles, a US-made 155mm M777 howitzer, a 152mm D-20 howitzer, two 152mm Msta-B howitzers, a 122mm Gvozdika motorized artillery system and two 122mm D-30 howitzers, it specified.

Russia’s Battlegroup East inflicts 145 casualties on Ukrainian army over past day

Russia’s Battlegroup East repulsed two Ukrainian army counterattacks and inflicted roughly 145 casualties on enemy troops in its area of responsibility over the past day, the ministry reported.

"Battlegroup East units improved their frontline positions and inflicted casualties on formations of the Ukrainian army’s 128th mountain assault, 127th and 128th territorial defense brigades near the settlements of Velikaya Novosyolka and Oktyabr in the Donetsk People’s Republic and Temirovka in the Zaporozhye Region. They repulsed two counterattacks by assault groups of the 123rd territorial defense brigade," the ministry said.

The Ukrainian army lost as many as 145 personnel, a tank, three armored combat vehicles and six motor vehicles in that frontline area over the past 24 hours, it specified.

The Economist/Tass