Nigeria’s manufacturing activity pulled off a sharp growth last month, shaking off successive contractions in the two months preceding April.

The growth was recorded as the squeeze resulting from the central bank’s push to wean Africa’s largest economy off dependence on physical cash softened.

The country’s Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) came in at 53.8 for the month on increased production level and improvement in new business, according to newly issued factory activity data.

A reading higher than 50 points to growth, while any below that threshold implies a shrinking in PMI, which assesses the overall direction that business condition in the manufacturing industry is headed.

Hiring was restrained and employment consequently slowed as companies still grappled with uncertainty in some way, following the crisis.

“The easing of the cash shortage challenge in April saw improvement in both output and consumer demand,” Muyiwa Oni, Head of Equity Research West Africa at Stanbic IBTC Bank, said.

Stanbic IBTC Bank works alongside S&P Global and Nigeria’s statistics office every month to provide the data.

“While the easier access to cash caused business activities to expand across key sectors (Agriculture, manufacturing, services and wholesales and retails sectors), firms however maintained caution in increasing staff head count,” Oni further stated.

His optimism for activity in the near term is measured, considering that sentiment remains relatively weak and given the signals that access to cash will be steady, not dramatic.

The document highlighted a steep jump in input costs for manufacturers in April, not altogether unanticipated as Nigeria’s inflation climbed to 22 per cent in the preceding month, closing in on its 18-year peak.

Even though firms passed on the increased cost to customers, that was done sensitively in order to attract them, leading to the slightest rate of selling price increase in three years.

“Business sentiment remained subdued in April, despite a slight pick-up from March. In fact, optimism was among the lowest seen since the survey began in January 2014,” the report said.

PT

Registrar of Teachers Registration Council of Nigeria, (TRCN), Josiah Ajiboye, says 70 per cent of teachers in private schools in the Southwest are unqualified.

Speaking on Thursday in Abuja at the signing of the Memorandum of Understanding between the council and INSTILL Education on bringing in new dynamics into the profession, Ajiboye revealed that contrary to several speculations about the southwest and its teachers in private schools, 70 per cent were discovered not qualified.

While lamenting that 70 per cent of the unqualified teachers lacked the prerequisite to be registered by the Council, the TRCN boss stated that a large number of teachers in Nigeria have never been exposed to training and have been using outdated equipment for illustration.

“A large number of teachers in private schools in Nigeria today are not qualified. We wanted to use a consultant to get revenue from teachers in private schools. When we carried out a survey, we observed that 70 per cent of teachers in the Southwest were not qualified,” he said.

According to him, they are not registrable with the TRCN and that is to say there is a big gap.

“These people do not possess the requisite qualification to register with the Council, and so there’s a big gap. So we are looking into the future to fill up that gap like it’s done in South Africa,” he said.

He said signing the MoU marks a milestone in the proposed collaboration between INSTILL Education and TRCN which is aimed at equipping Nigerian teachers with 21st century skills that will ultimately support teachers’ professional development and learning outcomes in Nigeria and Africa in general.

He noted that the Council has 2.3 million teachers in its database, and developed the Policy on Career Path for the profession and the Professional Standards for Nigerian Teachers (PSNT) which have been domesticated by Sierra-Leone and adopted by the Africa Union (AU) for implementation in Africa.

“The major component of this MOU is to service the in-service teachers. How do we go about capacitating them and up-skilling them? Many of these teachers have never been exposed to a single training programme since they were employed and have been doing the same thing the same way, whereas there are dynamics if the classroom and things are changing with regards to the classroom,” he said.

Ajiboye added, “So these teachers need to be exposed to new ways of doing things and that’s what INSTILL is coming with. They are experts who are working with expertise, technology and will help us to do this type of capitation for our teachers.”

Daily Trust

Unidentified gunmen on Thursday attacked a police checkpoint located along the Umunze-Ihite Road in Orumba South Local Government Area of Anambra State.

The attack resulted in the death of three police officers who were on duty at the checkpoint. Reports suggest that the gunmen arrived at the scene in large numbers and began firing on the officers. Although some officers managed to escape, three were killed on the spot. An eyewitness, who lives near the checkpoint, said that the gunmen came in a commando-like manner and fired shots in the air to scare residents.

As a result of the attack, the community has become deserted, with shop owners closing their shops, and people fleeing or remaining indoors in fear of another attack.

A video clip circulating on WhatsApp shows the bodies of the slain officers at the scene of the attack. One body was found lying on the road, while the other two were discovered at the corner of a nearby building.

The state police command spokesman, Tochukwu Ikenga, confirmed the incident, describing it as a high price paid by security officers in the line of duty. He added that the police are not deterred by the attack and have deployed reinforcements to the area to hunt for the assailants.

Heavy fighting in Khartoum; Sudan's children caught in conflict, UN says

Fierce fighting persisted in Sudan on Thursday despite a truce agreement as U.S. intelligence said rival forces were trying to gain the upper hand ahead of possible negotiations and the U.N. warned of the violence's devastating toll on children.

Despite multiple ceasefire declarations, the two sides appeared to be battling for control of territory in the capital Khartoum ahead of proposed talks, though the leaders of both factions have shown little public willingness to negotiate after more than two weeks of fighting.

The Sudanese army on Thursday sought to dislodge the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) paramilitary force from its positions near central Khartoum in intense battles.

"Both sides believe they can win militarily and have few incentives to come to the negotiating table," U.S. Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines told the Senate Armed Services Committee in Washington.

With fighting having continued despite ceasefire deals, the White House said it may sanction those responsible for destabilising Sudan.

The sudden collapse into warfare has killed hundreds, triggered a humanitarian disaster, sent an exodus of refugees to neighbouring states and risks dragging in outside powers, further destabilising an already restive region.

"The situation in Sudan is teetering toward catastrophe, and children are increasingly caught in the crossfire," Catherine Russell, executive director of the U.N. children's agency UNICEF said in a statement. "For the sake of Sudan’s children, the violence must stop."

Saying attacks had limited its ability to provide aid to children across the country, UNICEF said it had received reports of 190 children killed and 1,700 injured in Sudan since the conflict erupted on April 15. Firm numbers were difficult to obtain due to the intensity of the violence, it said.

Sudan said on Tuesday that 550 people had died and 4,926 people been wounded.

UNICEF called on the battling factions to ensure children were not caught in the line of fire, including by stopping attacks on health centres, schools and water stations.

FOOD AID LOOTED

The conflict has dealt a crippling blow to the heart of the country's economy in the capital Khartoum, disrupted internal trade routes, threatened imports and triggered a cash crunch.

Across swathes of the capital, factories, banks and shops have been looted or damaged, power and water supplies have been failing and residents have reported steep price rises and shortages of basic goods.

Several large markets have been destroyed, said Saddam Siddig Bashasha, who runs a solar energy and generator business in Khartoum. "These torched markets supported poor workers and farmers. Thousands of them lost their jobs, which will make conditions really difficult," he said.

The fighting results from a power struggle between two rival factions, the army and RSF, that had shared power after a coup in 2021, derailing efforts to bring democracy and civilian rule after a 2019 popular uprising that unseated strongman Omar al-Bashir.

U.S. President Joe Biden called the violence a betrayal of the Sudanese people's demands for civilian government and said the U.S. stood ready to offer humanitarian assistance "when conditions allow".

The sound of bombardment and clashes rang out in Khartoum and its adjoining cities of Omdurman and Bahri on Thursday in violation of the latest, seven-day, truce agreement. The army was trying to push the RSF from positions around the presidential palace and military headquarters.

"Since yesterday evening, and this morning, there are air strikes and the sounds of clashes," said Al-Sadiq Ahmed, a 49-year-old engineer speaking from Khartoum.

"We've got into a state of permanent terror because the battles are around the centres of residential neighbourhoods. We don't know when this nightmare and the fear will end."

The United Nations, meanwhile, pressed the warring factions to guarantee safe passage of aid after six trucks were looted.

U.N. aid chief Martin Griffiths said he hoped to have face-to-face meetings with both sides within two to three days to secure guarantees from them for aid convoys.

The World Food Programme (WFP) on Thursday estimated that $13 million to $14 million worth of food destined to people in need in Sudan had been plundered so far.

About 100,000 people have fled Sudan with little food or water to neighbouring countries, the U.N. says.

The civilian toll has been exacerbated by the warring sides' use of explosive weapons including tanks, artillery, rockets and airstrikes in populated areas, Human Rights Watch said on Thursday, accusing them of reckless disregard for civilian life.

Reuters

WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Drones attack Ukrainian capital, Moscow says US behind Kremlin drone

Russian drones attacked the Ukrainian capital Kyiv on Thursday evening, the fourth assault in as many days subjecting residents to spasms of gunfire and explosions, and at least one drone was shot down.

City authorities had declared an alert for Kyiv and the surrounding area. Residents who had gone to air raid shelters said the drones arrived more quickly than usual after the alerts were declared. Reuters witnesses heard gunfire and repeated heavier explosions near the city centre.

The attacks started just after 8 p.m. (1700 GMT) and lasted around 20 minutes. Ukraine's air force said in a statement that it had destroyed one of its own drones after the drone lost control over Kyiv region, probably because of a technical failure. It wasn't clear how many drones in total were destroyed.

Russia said on Thursday that the United States was behind a purported drone attack on the Kremlin aiming to kill President Vladimir Putin. Washington and Kyiv denied involvement.

Putin will head a scheduled meeting of Russia's Security Council on Friday and the Kremlin incident could be on the agenda, TASS news agency reported.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, speaking in The Hague after visiting the International Court of Justice, said Putin must be brought to justice over the war and that Kyiv would work to create a new tribunal for this purpose.

In other diplomacy, U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield said on a visit to Brazil that she encouraged the government to include Ukraine in any attempt to negotiate an end to the war. She was referring to President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's comments calling on the West to stop arming Ukraine to allow peace talks to start.

There are currently no peace talks to end the war, which has devastated Ukrainian towns and cities, killed thousands of people and driven millions from their homes.

FRONTLINE ACTION

Nearly 50 Russian attacks were repelled along the main sectors of the front line in eastern and southern Ukraine, the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces said on Thursday evening. The heaviest fighting is still in Bakhmut and in Maryinka, further south in Donetsk region, it said.

Russian forces also launched 66 air raids and engaged in 33 shelling episodes on Ukrainian positions and on towns and villages, causing casualties and damaging infrastructure, the report said.

Reuters was not able to verify the battlefield accounts.

MOSCOW CITES 'US ORDERS'

Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov, without providing evidence, said Ukraine had acted on U.S. orders to attack the Kremlin citadel in the early hours of Wednesday.

White House national security spokesperson John Kirby dismissed Russian "lies" and said there still was no conclusive evidence as to the authenticity of a video showing the drone at the Kremlin.

"Attempts to disown this (attack on the Kremlin), both in Kyiv and in Washington, are, of course, absolutely ridiculous. We know very well that decisions about such actions, about such terrorist attacks, are made not in Kyiv but in Washington," Peskov told reporters.

Peskov said an urgent investigation was under way and that any response would be carefully considered and balanced.

Russia has increasingly accused the United States of being a direct participant in the war, intent on inflicting a "strategic defeat" on Moscow. Washington denies this, saying it is arming Kyiv to defend itself and retake illegally seized land.

KYIV, ODESA TARGETED

Earlier on Thursday, Russia fired two dozen combat drones at Ukraine, hitting Kyiv and also striking a university campus in the Black Sea city of Odesa. There were no reports of casualties. Russia denies targeting civilians in Ukraine.

Diplomats, meanwhile, are still working to keep a package deal for Ukrainian and Russian agricultural exports alive beyond May 18. Technical personnel from Turkey, Russia, Ukraine, and the United Nations will meet on Friday to discuss the deal, Turkish Defence Minister Hulusi Akar said.

Russia has a list of demands it wants met for continuation of the Black Sea grains pact, which the U.N. said helps tackle a global food crisis aggravated by Russian forces invading neighbouring Ukraine in February 2022.

Zelenskiy has vowed to drive all invading Russian forces back to the borders set in 1991 following the collapse of the Soviet Union. He said on Thursday the whole of Ukrainian society was preparing for a counteroffensive, which he said would be successful against what he called a "demotivated" Russia.

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

Washington responsible for attack on Kremlin – Moscow

All of Kiev’s decisions are ultimately dictated by Washington, including which targets to hit and by what means, Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov claimed on Thursday. His comments came after two Ukrainian drones unsuccessfully attempted to strike the Kremlin in the early hours of Wednesday morning.  

“Such decisions – the definition of goals, the definition of means, and so on – all this is dictated to Kiev from Washington, and we are well aware of this,” Peskov told reporters. 

The spokesman for President Vladimir Putin dismissed attempts by US and Ukrainian officials to “disown” Wednesday’s attack as “laughable,” insisting that “we know full well that decisions to carry out such terrorist actions are made not in Kiev, but in Washington.”  

Peskov asserted that it is important that the US “clearly understands” that Russia is aware of its involvement in Ukraine and “how dangerous such direct involvement is.” 

The spokesman said that Kiev’s attempted drone strike on the Kremlin is being thoroughly investigated, but did not provide estimates on when any conclusions would be officially announced. 

Peskov reiterated that Moscow reserves the right to respond to the attack with “a variety of steps.” Although declining to specify what those measures might be, the Kremlin official insisted they would be carefully considered and “in line with Russia’s interests.” 

Putin’s office reported on Wednesday that two Ukrainian UAVs had been disabled by air defenses while trying to strike the president’s Kremlin residence in Moscow in the early hours of the morning. Putin was not in the Kremlin at the time of the incident and no one was hurt, the statement added.  

Russia described the failed drone strike as “a pre-planned terrorist act” and an attempt on Putin’s life perpetrated by Kiev.  

Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky has denied his country’s involvement in the attack, while US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has said that Washington could not “in any way validate” Russia’s claims.

US National Security Council spokesman John Kirby responded to Peskov’s comments by insisting that Washington was in no way involved in the incident. “We don’t do that and we had nothing to do with it,” he told MSNBC.

The Kremlin has vowed that Moscow will retaliate to the raid “anywhere and anytime it deems necessary,” while senior Russian lawmaker Vyacheslav Volodin has called for the use of “weapons capable of stopping and destroying the Kiev terrorist regime.”

** Russian forces strike command posts of two Ukrainian army brigades

Russian forces struck command posts of two Ukrainian army brigades and a special operations center over the past day during the special military operation in Ukraine, Defense Ministry Spokesman Lieutenant-General Igor Konashenkov reported on Thursday.

"In areas near the settlements of Novoandreyevka in the Zaporozhye Region, Belogorovka in the Lugansk People’s Republic and Nestryga Island in the Kherson Region, the command/observation posts of the Ukrainian army’s 128th mountain assault and 54th mechanized brigades and the special operations forces center were struck," the spokesman said.

In the past 24 hours, operational/tactical and army aviation, missile troops and artillery of the Russian group of forces struck 103 Ukrainian artillery units at firing positions, manpower and military hardware in 118 areas, the general reported.

Russian forces destroy Ukrainian artillery ammo depot in Kupyansk area

Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian artillery ammunition depot and roughly 30 enemy troops in the Kupyansk area over the past day, Konashenkov reported.

In the Kupyansk direction, operational/tactical and army aviation and artillery from the western battlegroup struck the enemy units in areas near the settlements of Novosyolovskoye in the Lugansk People’s Republic, Pershotravnevoye and Novomlynsk in the Kharkov Region, the spokesman said.

"As many as 30 Ukrainian personnel, two armored combat vehicles, three motor vehicles and a Gvozdika motorized artillery gun were destroyed. In the area of the settlement of Volchansk in the Kharkov Region, an artillery ammunition depot of the Ukrainian army’s 67th mechanized brigade was destroyed," the general said.

Russian forces neutralize six Ukrainian subversive groups in Kupyansk area

Russian forces neutralized six Ukrainian subversive groups in the Kupyansk area over the past day, Konashenkov reported.

"In the Kupyansk direction, in areas near the settlements of Stelmakhovka in the Kharkov Region, Kislovka, Sinkovka, Timkovka and Ivanovka in the Lugansk People’s Republic, the activity of six Ukrainian subversive/reconnaissance groups was thwarted," the spokesman said.

Russian forces eliminate 70 Ukrainian troops in Krasny Liman area

Russian combat aircraft and artillery struck Ukrainian army units in the Krasny Liman area, eliminating 70 enemy troops and one tank over the past day, Konashenkov reported.

"In the Krasny Liman direction, operational/tactical and army aviation and artillery from the battlegroup Center struck the enemy units in areas near the settlements of Terny and Serebryanka in the Donetsk People’s Republic, Nevskoye and Chervonaya Dibrova in the Lugansk People’s Republic," the spokesman said.

The strikes eliminated as many as 70 Ukrainian troops, one tank, two infantry fighting vehicles, two pickup trucks and a Msta-B howitzer in that direction in the past 24 hours, the general specified.

Russian forces destroy 255 Ukrainian troops in Donetsk advance

Russian forces destroyed roughly 255 Ukrainian troops in their advance in the Donetsk area over the past day, Konashenkov reported.

"As many as 255 Ukrainian troops, two armored combat vehicles, six motor vehicles, two D-20 howitzers and a Gvozdika motorized artillery system were destroyed in that direction during the last 24-hour period," the spokesman said.

In addition, Russian forces obliterated an ammunition depot of the Ukrainian army’s 54th mechanized brigade near the settlement of Belogorovka, the general added.

Russian assault teams destroying Ukrainian troops in Artyomovsk

Russian assault teams captured two urban areas and kept destroying enemy forces in the western part of Artyomovsk over the past day, Konashenkov reported.

"In the Donetsk direction, the assault teams captured two urban areas and continued destroying the enemy in the western part of the city of Artyomovsk. Operational/tactical and army aviation and artillery from the southern battlegroup struck units of the Ukrainian army’s 60th, 93rd and 54th motorized infantry brigades near the settlement of Krasnoye, the southwestern outskirts of Artyomovsk and Grigorovka," the spokesman said.

Russian Airborne Force units kept thwarting the enemy’s attempts to counter-attack from the flanks. In the past 24 hours, Russian combat aircraft flew six sorties and artillery of the southern battlegroup accomplished 57 firing objectives in that area to support the assault teams, Konashenkov reported.

Russian forces destroy 30 Ukrainian troops in southern Donetsk, Zaporozhye areas

Russian forces destroyed roughly 30 Ukrainian troops in the southern Donetsk and Zaporozhye areas over the past day, he said.

In the southern Donetsk and Zaporozhye directions, assault and army aviation and artillery from Russia’s battlegroup East struck the Ukrainian army’s units in areas near the settlements of Ugledar, Vodyanoye and Velikaya Novosyolka in the Donetsk People’s Republic, Chervonoye, Kamenskoye, Novodanilovka and Malaya Tokmachka in the Zaporozhye Region, the spokesman specified.

"The enemy’s losses in those directions in the past 24 hours amounted to 30 Ukrainian personnel, two armored combat vehicles, three motor vehicles, two D-30 howitzers and a Gvozdika self-propelled artillery gun," the general reported.

Russian forces destroy 35 Ukrainian troops, two howitzers in Kherson area

Russian forces destroyed about 35 Ukrainian troops and two howitzers in the Kherson area over the past day, Konashenkov reported.

"In the Kherson direction, as many as 35 Ukrainian troops, six motor vehicles, a Gvozdika motorized artillery gun and D-30 and Msta-B howitzers were destroyed as a result of damage inflicted by firepower," the spokesman said.

Russian forces wipe out Ukrainian army’s fuel depot near Kirovograd

Russian forces destroyed a fuel depot of the Ukrainian army near Kirovograd over the past day, Konashenkov reported.

"In the area of the city of Kirovograd, a fuel depot belonging to a Ukrainian battlegroup was destroyed," the spokesman said.

In the area of Slavyansk, Russian forces obliterated an ammunition depot of the Ukrainian army’s 66th mechanized brigade, the general added.

Russian air defenses intercept nine rockets, down 14 Ukrainian drones

Russian air defense forces intercepted nine rockets of the HIMARS, Uragan and Smerch multiple launch rocket systems and destroyed 14 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles over the past day, Konashenkov reported.

"During the last 24-hour period, air defense capabilities intercepted nine rockets of the HIMARS, Uragan and Smerch multiple launch rocket systems. In addition, they destroyed 14 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles in areas near the settlements of Novoprokofyevka in the Zaporozhye Region, Lyubovka, Kamenka, Lebyazhye and Kirillovka in the Donetsk People’s Republic, Lisichansk, Krivosheyevka and Chervonaya Dibrova in the Lugansk People’s Republic," the spokesman said.

In total, the Russian Armed Forces have destroyed 416 Ukrainian warplanes, 230 helicopters, 3,949 unmanned aerial vehicles, 421 surface-to-air missile systems, 8,967 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 1,095 multiple rocket launchers, 4,728 field artillery guns and mortars and 9,949 special military motor vehicles since the beginning of the special military operation in Ukraine, Konashenkov reported.

Reuters/RT/TASS

We have a measurement problem eloquently illustrated in a Yoruba tale about a Mecca has-been. The fellow in this tale had just returned from a pilgrimage to Mecca, apparently the first to do so in his community. Upon his return, folks were understandably curious and wanted to know about the Holy Land.

Thinking of what would best illustrate the majestic splendour of Mecca, the sojourner decided to use a native fowl as an example.

“You all know our native fowl?,” he began. 

“Of course!,” his curious, attentive listeners chorused.

“The fowl in Mecca is as big as a cow, if not bigger!,” he told them.

“Oh no!,” one rather incredulous listener said, amidst the rapturous gasps of h-e-n-e-n-h-e! “Big as a cow or big as a goat?”

“Ok,” the sojourner replied, “Let’s say it’s as big as a goat!”

“Oh no!,” the incredulous interlocutor reposed again. “Big as a goat or as big as a rabbit?”

This encounter continued until the sojourner, lowering his hand each time he was challenged, grudgingly lowered it until the point where nearly everyone finally concluded that the size of the fowl of Mecca was not significantly different from the size of the local one.

The tale of the fowl of Mecca is a metaphor of our census dilemma. We have spent nearly 60 years counting ourselves and yet, the answer to Nigeria’s census question is: it depends on whose hand is at play.

The Nigerian Population Commission (NPC) estimates that Nigeria is 218 million; the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) puts the figure at “over 200 million”; while the UNFPA and the World Bank estimate Nigeria’s population at between 216 million and 218 million, or thereabouts. 

Former President Goodluck Jonathan even said at a recent event that Nigeria is not 200m. “Far from it,” he reportedly said on April 14. “We should be about 150m.”

As things stand, Nigeria is in the company of Afghanistan, DR Congo, Uzbekistan, Madagascar, Eritrea and Lebanon as countries without a census population. The only thing certain about the Lebanese population, for example, is that there are more Lebanese in the Diaspora than at home!

The recent attempt to have another count in Nigeria, already overdue by 17 years, has been postponed indefinitely. After a hasty meeting on Friday night between President Muhammadu Buhari and the Chairman of NPC, Nasir Isa Kwarra, the Federal Government announced that it had decided to let the incoming administration handle the census. 

The postponement did not surprise me. After years of doing nothing, the Board of 36 commissioners and a relatively unknown chairman have become so used to pay and prestige without work that getting any serious census off the ground was always going to be a tough job. 

Ten years ago, former Managing Director of Nigerian Breweries Plc and Chairman of NPC, Festus Odimegwu, was forced to resign his position because he said Nigeria could not have a meaningful census except certain fundamental changes were made. 

He said at the time, “If the current laws are not amended, the planned 2016 census will not succeed.” By that, of course, he meant laws that make the population of states a basis for the sharing of oil revenues and political representation. 

His comment ruffled feathers. President Jonathan who already had his back to the wall sacked Odimegwu to appease deeply offended interests in the North who thought the NPC chairman could not be trusted to conduct a credible census.

It turned out, however, that Jonathan’s sacrifice was neither enough to secure him Northern sympathy in the 2015 election nor did the census hold as planned in 2016. His successor, Muhammadu Buhari, after promising to hold the census in May 2023 has now kicked the can down the road, with no shortage of excuses.

The most obvious one was the shift in the date of the governorship and state house of assembly elections. The NPC said the shift in state elections from March 11 to 18 complicated its original plans to have the census between March 29 and April 2. 

That is potentially true, but mainly false. The shift by one week may have momentarily affected NPC’s planning and execution, but only momentarily. The Commission was not ready, simple. Apart from those in its glass-panelled offices in Abuja and a few staff in the states, NPC has been very busy talking to itself.

It was not the shift in election dates by a week that complicated NPC’s problem. Its unseriousness was worsened by widespread complaints about the failure of the Independent National Electoral Commission’s (INEC) bimodal verification system. NPC was deeply worried by the prospects of a flawed count piling on the unresolved BVAS mess.

Another sign of unpreparedness was the questionnaire – the basic instrument for the 2023 census. On April 14, NPC Director of Public Affairs, Isiaka Yahaya, was quoted to have said in Kano that the Commission would not ask questions about religion and ethnicity in the census!

Why not? What is it about respondents’ religion and ethnicity that NPC is so afraid of that it desperately wants to expunge from the questionnaire? 

If there was anything that needed a review, it is the often-weaponised “state of origin” which could have been replaced with “state of residence,” for example. But to pretend that it’s OK to strike out religion/non-religion and ethnicity and make us a bunch of aliens is, well, largely alien to population census. I don’t know where this idea is coming from or what NPC hopes to achieve. 

But none of the countries I have searched turned up this demographic insanity. Not India, the world’s largest multi-ethnic democracy, where everything from caste to mother-tongue and migration status is required; not South Africa or Kenya; and certainly not Ghana, Nigeria’s neighbour.

Yet, what these countries have in common, but which Nigeria lacks, is significant degree of reliability in primary data on births, deaths, school enrolments, migrations and so on, managed in secure systems and regularly updated. Without reliable primary data, any census conducted — whether every five, seven or ten years — is a waste of time. And without this data also, no reliable planning or forecast is likely.

It would seem that the real elephant in the room, though, is that the NPC knows the Bola Tinubu government would reject the outcome of a census rammed down the country’s throat with only days before President Muhammadu Buhari’s administration leaves. 

They’re dealing with a familiar customer. It was Lagos State, under Tinubu, that dragged the Federal Government to the tribunal over the 2006 census, on grounds that the state’s population had been underreported by nearly half its size. 

The current Lagos Deputy Governor, Femi Hamzat, who was the Commissioner for Science and Technology at the time, produced a book on behalf of the state, entitled, “Errors, Miscalculations and Omissions: The Falsification of Lagos Census Figures,” which essentially said that instead of the 9.1 million which the NPC had awarded the state, its own shadow census showed the state actually had a population of 17.6 million.

Nothing much came out of the legal challenge, but Odimegwu’s complaint seven years later re-echoed the sentiments of Lagos and significantly explains the scramble, this time, to nick the census before May 29.

If Kwarra and his commissioners are deceiving themselves, Buhari knows that Tinubu’s government will not accept any census result under the current circumstances. That is why the census was postponed.

Yet, given the current structure of the country, especially the conservatively dominated National Assembly, it would be difficult to have a credible census, even under Tinubu, without a review of the law that makes population the basis of sharing oil money. 

Under the “horizontal sharing” formula of 26.72 percent of revenue in the federation account, for example, population accounts for 30 percent. This figure could be cut to 10 percent; while internal revenue which currently gets 10 percent could be increased to 30 percent.

Appeals not to politicise the census is empty, self-serving noise. Politicians will not relent, unless there is also a countervailing legislation that ties the extent and scope of Federal intervention in states to the taxes or royalties collected from the states and, fundamentally, to how much wealth the states themselves create.

Nothing short of a drastic action will cut the politics of our census fowl to its true size.

** Ishiekwene is Editor-In-Chief of LEADERSHIP

Dramatically improve the customer service at your business by emulating the great hotels, including The Ritz-Carlton, Four Seasons and Michael Dell's newest ultra-luxury property.

As a customer service consultant and trainer, I'm the guy business owners ask to turn their company into "The Ritz-Carlton of Industry X" (retail banking, fintech, automotive retailing, B2B enterprises or whatever) or, nearly as often, "The Four Seasons of Industry Y."

In other words, companies in every sector of the economy look to the hospitality industry, especially the great luxury hotel brands, as the exemplar of exceptional customer service.

If you want your company's customer service to be so phenomenal that you're considered The Ritz-Carlton or Four Seasons of your industry, here are five powerful secrets to get you there.

1. Whenever an employee fields a customer request, they need to own it

One of the things that makes staying at a luxury hotel such a pleasure is that when you ask for something, the employee owns it. You'll never hear, "You'll need to call Lost and Found" or "You'll have to call our restaurant directly. Instead, you'll hear, "Absolutely. I'll take care of that right away."

What a breath of fresh air this is for a customer to hear, and what a powerful change in framing this is for your employee as well, who knows they are empowered to follow through from start to finish.

Emulate this in your own business. It's a powerful way to let customers know you'll always take good care of them, whatever that involves — and do it with minimal friction. And when customers realize that you and your people will never pass the buck, why would they go anywhere else?

2. Obsess over finding the right language to use with customers

Whenever I take on the task of customer service transformation for a company, one of the first steps I get them to take is to do what great hotels do: Stop taking language for granted, but instead engage in "language engineering," which is thinking through which words and phrases are likely to displease customers, and what they should be replaced with for better results.

For example, you never want to tell a customer, "To be honest with you"; what were you doing up to that point, lying to them point blank? Similarly, there is the "no problem" problem. While this colloquial phrase might be all right reassuring a customer after they've done something to inconvenience you (spilled their soda on the floor, for example), It's never the right thing to say when a customer goes out of their way to thank you — and you'll never hear it uttered at a Five Star hotel.

Why? It belittles the customer's kindness in giving you thanks, and it brings up the specter of a "problem" in the first place — not a concept you want hovering in the air. There are also multiple synonyms for telling a customer, in effect, "You're wrong." That should be avoided as well. Perhaps the customer is wrong, but it doesn't do you any good to make them feel wrong, especially before the issue has been explored. So, avoid, "That's not what happened," "We would never do that," "I beg to differ," and the like.

Instead of reflexively throwing one of these "you are wrongs" at your customer, listen attentively as the customer explains what (they feel) happened, and then gently probe to find where the disconnect may be, using language like "alternatively" and "perhaps."

3. Become fantastic at working with (and turning around) upset or disappointed customers

In the early days of The Ritz-Carlton Hotel Company, they were so good at customer service recovery (appeasing and ultimately delighting unhappy guests) that they were rated #1 of all luxury brands at that time, even though their "defect rate" (the number of issues a guest experienced) wasn't much different from that at other hotels.

You, similarly, need to get fantastic at service recovery. Because things will go wrong at every business every day of the week. If you don't already have a service recovery framework in place, I suggest my well-known MAMA method.

The magical thing about service recovery is what's called "the service recovery paradox": the proven psychological principle that a customer who experiences a problem that you then resolve to their satisfaction is more (not less!) likely to become a loyal customer and advocate for a business than the customer for whom nothing ever went wrong. So there's tremendous power in getting this right.

4. Strive to always default to yes

A grand hotel is one of the few businesses that follow the principle that "The answer is yes; I just need to hear what your question is." And this attitude permeates these customer-focused hospitality organizations. Guests, as a result, can sense right away that whatever they're looking for, requesting, demanding, or even the hotel's answer is going to be yes, regardless of what that involves.

This is a night-and-day contrast with the attitude customers encounter at so many other businesses, where employees are ready to throw the policy book at the customer and often explain why the answer needs to be no.

The newest Michael Dell-owned luxury property, The Boca Raton, offers a good example of applying the default of "yes" in the case of a guest who wants to have breakfast in the restaurant long after it's officially closed. They will set up a special corner of the restaurant for the guest or, if that's impossible, they'll set up breakfast for the guest at some other choice location on the property — outside to enjoy the sunny Southern Florida weather or inside by a cozy fireplace.

So, while you can't always say yes, never say no without providing one or more reasonable alternative yeses. It's a powerful way to up your customer service level across the board.

5. Give your customers the personal recognition they desire

One thing I've learned in my many years as a customer service consultant is that customers are loyal to businesses that recognize them as valuable human beings. Think how well great hotels (and their onsite restaurants) follow this principle when you arrive in the lobby (or at your car) and you're greeted by name. Or when the owner or chef takes the time to visit your table and thank you for your business.

As in a great hotel, do everything you can at your own business to never leave a customer unrecognized and feeling unappreciated. Because even though no customer will sidle up to your service counter and proclaim, "I demand that you provide attention and recognition to me as the unique individual I am," most customers are hoping for this. And if you provide it, it becomes a powerful force in driving repeat business and even loyalty for life.

Entrepreneur

The capture of democratic political systems by private power networks is arguably the greatest threat to civil liberties and inclusive development in Africa. That’s the conclusion of two new reports that address the issue of threats to democracy on the continent.

The first report is published by Ghana’s Centre for Democratic Development. It focuses on the capture and subversion of democratic institutions in Benin, Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique and Nigeria.

These case studies reveal that even in more democratic states such as Benin and Ghana, ruling parties can “hijack” democracy and appropriate its benefits. They do this by capturing the institutions of democracy itself. This includes electoral commissions, judiciaries, legislatures and even the media and civil society.

The net effect is to undermine transparency and accountability. This in turn facilitates the abuse of power, especially in more authoritarian contexts.

The second report was curated by Democracy in Africa and takes a slightly different approach. It looks at how unelected networks can infiltrate and subvert state structures.

In particular, it maps the emergence of shadow states in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe. These case studies show that networks of unelected businessmen, civil servants, political fixers and members of the presidents’ families wield more power than legislators.

By mapping how these networks are organised across different groups and countries, the report reveals how influential and resilient certain groups have become. It also shows how many shadow states have been integrated into transnational financial and – in some cases – criminal networks.

This is not an “African” issue. Similar processes have been identified in a number of different countries and regions. These include Bangladesh, Brazil and the US. But this does not mean that the need to recognise and confront these issues is any less pressing.

States with higher levels of democracy capture are prone to becoming more authoritarian, corrupt and abusive.

Democracy capture and the shadow state

According to politics professor Emmanuel Gyimah-Boadi, democracy capture occurs when

a few individuals or sections of a supposedly democratic polity are able to systematically appropriate to themselves the institutions and processes as well as dividends of democratic governance.

In other words, democracy capture expands the idea of “state capture” to include all political institutions and democratic activities including civil society and the media.

The term is widely used in South Africa to refer to the undue influence of special interest groups over state institutions.

Indeed what is striking about this process is the well-structured networks that encompass a broad range of individuals from government to the security forces, traditional leaders, private businesses, state-owned enterprises, and their family members. According to a separate study by South African academics Ivor Chipkinand Mark Swilling, what distinguishes these actors is their privileged “access to the inner sanctum of power in order to make decisions”.

One helpful way of conceptualising these networks is the idea of shadow statesdeveloped by the influential political scientist William Reno.

For Reno, a shadow state is effectively a system of governance in which a form of parallel government is established by a coalition of the president, militias, security agencies, local intermediaries and foreign companies. In extreme versions such as Sierra Leone real power no longer lies in official institutions of government such as the legislature.

This kind of shadow state is characterised by the existence of private armies and a severely limited, almost imaginary, formal state.

More recently, researchers have identified manifestations of the shadow state in countries that are not in the middle of civil war and have stronger formal political systems. Good examples include Kenya and Zambia.

In these cases, the shadow state is more oriented towards hampering the activities of opposition parties and ensuring impunity for its members.

Africa is not a country

The nine case studies featured in the two reports show that the extent of democracy capture varies significantly. It is lower in states like Ghana, where robust electoral contestation among rival parties has seen multiple transfers of power. It’s much higher in states such as Zimbabwe, where the government has never changed hands.

The shape and resilience of unelected power networks also varies in important ways. In Uganda, the shadow state is run by an axis of President Yoweri Museveni’s family, a “military aristocracy” and interlocutors in the business community.

In Benin, President Patrice Talon has exploited the weakness of the legal system, the judiciary and the legislature to expand his power. Through this process he has turned one of the continent’s most vibrant democracies into a near political monopoly.

The picture is different again in the DRC. International military alliances were critical to the way that former presidents Laurent Kabila and Joseph Kabila took and held power. This led to a shadow state that has been more profoundly shaped by transnational smuggling networks and the activities of the security forces.

The situation in Zambia is also distinctive. Under former president Edgar Lungu, the security forces were less relevant than the nexus between politicians, government officials and businessmen. This led to rampant corruption and mismanagement. But it did not prevent a transfer of power in 2021.

In contrast, in Zimbabwe the government has been progressively militarised, penetrating further areas of the state and the economy. This raises serious questions about whether President Emmerson Mnangagwa – or army leaders – holds real power.

It is, therefore, important to map the shadow state on a case-by-case basis because no two networks are the same. The differences between them reveals who really holds power.

The consequences

Shadow states have a negative impact on democracy and accountability. But the damage they do goes well beyond this. It undermines inclusive development through three related processes:

• creating a culture of impunity, which facilitates corruption and diverts resources from productive investments
• manipulating government expenditure and other public resources and opportunities to sustain the patronage networks and ensure the shadow state’s political survival
• creating monopolistic or oligopolistic conditions that increase prices and enable companies with links to the shadow state to make excessive profits.

The result is that resources and investment are systematically diverted into private hands.

In Uganda, Museveni issues tax waivers to business allies in return for election support. This denies the treasury hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue.

In Zimbabwe, companies in league with the ruling party and the military have used these connections to establish near monopolies in key sectors of the economy that exploit the public. In one case, this led to severe fuel shortages that artificially inflated prices.

When added to the billions of dollars lost through straightforward corruption, theft and fraud, it is clear that these processes represent one of the most significant barriers to inclusive development in Africa. Unless these networks are challenged, they will continue to keep citizens in poverty while enriching those connected to the shadow state.

H. Kwasi Prempeh, executive director of the Ghana Centre for Democratic Development, co-authored this article

The Conversation

The ancient Romans were brilliant engineers and builders, creating a dazzling array of magnificent structures including some that have survived to modern times virtually intact like the domed Pantheon in Rome.

An indispensable material for the Romans was a form of concrete they developed that is known for remarkable durability and longevity, though its exact composition and properties have remained a mystery. A new study goes a long way toward solving this puzzle and, the researchers said, could pave the way for the modern use of a replicated version of this ancient marvel.

Roman concrete was introduced in the 3rd century BC, proving revolutionary. Also called opus caementicium, its three primary ingredients were lime, volcanic ash and water. It helped the Romans erect structures including temples, public baths and other big buildings, aqueducts and bridges unlike any fashioned to that point in history. Because the concrete could harden underwater, it also was vital for constructing harbors and breakwaters.

Many of these structures have endured for two millennia while modern concrete counterparts sometimes crumble in mere years or decades.

The researchers conducted a sophisticated examination of concrete from the walls of the ancient city of Privernum, located in Italy south of Rome. They deciphered unexpected manufacturing strategies that gave the concrete self-healing properties - chemically repairing any cracks or pores.

"The new results show that at the basis of ancient Roman concrete's self-healing and longevity could be the way Romans mixed their raw ingredients, specifically how they used lime, the key component of the mix besides volcanic ash," said Massachusetts Institute of Technology civil and environmental engineering professor Admir Masic, who headed the research published in the journal Science Advances.

"This is an important next step in improving the sustainability of modern concretes through a Roman-inspired strategy. We were able to translate some of the features in ancient Roman mortars that can be associated with self-healing into modern analogs with great success," Masic added.

Lime is a white caustic powdery substance comprised of calcium oxide, made by heating limestone.

Roman concrete contains white bits called "lime clasts," remnants of the lime used in the concrete. These features, the researchers said, appear to have resulted from a process called "hot mixing" that employs a lime variant called quicklime that reacts with water to heat the mortar mix and fosters beneficial chemistries that otherwise would not occur.

Experts long had believed the Roman concrete's durability arose from another important ingredient: volcanic ash from the area of Pozzuoli on the Bay of Naples. Some viewed the lime clasts, absent in modern concrete, as an accidental byproduct of sloppy preparation or poor-quality materials. This study identified them as instrumental in self-healing.

"Essentially it works like this: when concrete cracks, water or moisture enters and the crack widens and spreads throughout the structure. The lime clasts dissolve with the infiltration of water and provide calcium ions that recrystallize and repair the cracks. Additionally, the calcium ions can react with volcanic ingredients to reinforce the structure," Masic said.

The Pantheon, dating to the 2nd century AD, is a circular concrete building faced with brick, boasting the world's largest and oldest unreinforced concrete dome. The massive Roman Colosseum, dating to the first century AD, also would have been impossible without concrete.

"The Romans were great engineers. The fact that we can still walk around many of their structures is a testament to that. Just go to the Pantheon and see the line of people waiting to view the magnificent dome," said study lead author Linda Seymour, who worked on the research as a doctoral student at MIT and is now a project consultant with the engineering firm SGH.

"The Romans were savvy and adapted their materials based on a myriad of factors such as location and type of structure," Seymour added.

Reuters

An increasing number of nations are making plans to break away from the dollar's dominance of global trade and investment flows.

China has pursued the yuan in cross-border trade deals, while France's president has called for reduced dependence on the greenback. 

Here's what 10 expert voices have said about the rise of a de-dollarization trend. 

The de-dollarization movement is gathering global momentum, with an increasing number of nations from Asia to Europe and Latin America lining up plans to end the greenback's dominance of global trade and investment flows.

China and Brazil have made a deal to settle trade in each other's currencies, while French president Emmanuel Macron has urged Europe to wean itself off its dependence on the greenback. 

The acceleration of the anti-dollar drive has seen the yuan overtake its US counterpart as the most used currency for Chinese cross-border transactions. It is also Russia's most traded currency since Moscow was largely pushed out from global finance following its war with Ukraine. 

And while Goldman Sachs thinks attempts to undercut the dollar's supremacy will remain contained and constrained for years to come, other influential figures have adopted a more bearish view on the greenback. 

Here's what 10 top voices have said about the anti-dollar drive. 

Elon Musk, billionaire business magnate 

The Tesla and SpaceX CEO has warned against weaponizing currencies like the US has done with its economic sanctions, and suggested the de-dollarization trend may be linked to that. 

In a tweet on Tuesday, he responded to a video post by economist Peter St Onge, in which the latter highlighted that "de-dollarization is real and is happening fast." 

"Dollar share went from 73% (2001) to 55% in (2020). Went from 55% to 47% since sanction launched on Russia, now de-dollarizing at 10x faster than the previous two decades," Onge said. 

Musk responded: "If you weaponize currency enough times, other countries will stop using it." 

Ray Dalio, Bridgewater founder 

"Dollars are debt. In other words, when one holds a dollar — a central bank — they hold a debt asset," the Bridgewater Associates founder recently said. "So the holders of that would say, 'I'm already over-exposed to US dollar-denominated debt.' And so there's less of an eagerness to buy."

Western sanctions against Russia have frozen $300 billion worth of its central bank's assets, preventing Moscow from transacting in dollar- or euro-based assets. Those sanctions "increased the perceived risk that those debt assets can be frozen in the way that they've been frozen for Russia," Dalio said.

"So for those reasons, there's less desire to hold US dollar-denominated debt, which means yes, less US dollars," he added. "So the supply-demand picture is worsening particularly as we continue to have to sell them internationally to fund the deficit."

Emmanuel Macron, French president 

France's Macron urged that Europe must reduce its dependence on the  "extraterritoriality of the US dollar" in a Politico interview this month. 

The bombshell remarks came as the president stressed Europe should avoid getting tangled in tensions between China and the US. "If the tensions between the two superpowers heat up … we won't have the time nor the resources to finance our strategic autonomy and we will become vassals," he said.

Chamath Palihapitiya, venture capitalist

While the China's yuan in trade deals is increasing, Palihapitiya said it's unlikely to erode the dollar's dominance.

"This whole thing is a huge nothingburger," he said in a recent episode of the All-In Podcast.

"Until [the yuan] is unpacked in a free-floating currency, we will never know what the real market clearing price is," Palihapitiya said. "China has been very effectively able to manipulate this currency since they were brought into the WTO, in order to engender that trading partner status," he continued, adding that the dollar will remain the "canonical" flight to safety. 

Stanley Druckenmiller, Duquesne Capital founder

Billionaire investor Druckenmiller recently shared he is shorting the US dollar after missing out on last year's rally. In an interview with the Financial Times, he said he felt confident taking a bearish position against the greenback due to the prospect of US interest-rate cuts, a rise in non-dollar trade agreements, and the dollar's weaponization. 

"One area I'm comfortable is I'm short the US dollar," he told the outlet. "Currency trends tend to run for two or three years. We have had a long [run] higher."

Jeremy Allaire, Circle CEO 

"If we want to make the dollar safer and more competitive, we need to do two things," Allaire said in a tweet.

"Unleash it's power as a native data type on the internet, that can be openly used and integrated" and "remove the underlying bank lending IOU risk on electronic money, and separate payment tokens from lending tokens," he added. 

Goldman Sachs

De-dollarization is "lots of talk (again), not a lot of action," the bank's strategists wrote in a note.

"[P]art of the Dollar's declining share can likely be attributed to regular market forces as Treasuries fell and Asian central banks sold their Dollar holdings to counter the stronger Dollar last year," strategists said.

"While that is a clear risk if the US abuses its 'exorbitant privileges', we see no evidence of that in the data so far (for example, even Brazil's rising share of CNY reserves replaced CAD, not the Dollar), and our strong view is that there is currently no real contender," they added.

Joseph Sullivan, former White House economist

According to Sullivan, the dollar's dominance could be seriously threatened by a currency issued by Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.

"The BRICS would also be poised to achieve a level of self-sufficiency in international trade that has eluded the world's other currency unions," he said. "Because a BRICS currency union—unlike any before it—would not be among countries united by shared territorial borders, its members would likely be able to produce a wider range of goods than any existing monetary union."

"Either way, the dollar's reign isn't likely to end overnight—but a [BRICS currency] would begin the slow erosion of its dominance," he said.

Stephen Jen, Eurizon SLJ CEO and former Morgan Stanley currency guru

"The prevailing view of 'nothing-to-see-here' on the US dollar as a reserve currency seems too innocuous and complacent," Jen, who coined the "Dollar Smile" theory, wrote in a note, per Bloomberg.

"What needs to be appreciated by investors is that, while the Global South is unable to totally avoid using the dollar, much of it has already become unwilling to do so."

Anwar Ibrahim, Malaysian prime minister

"There is no reason for Malaysia to continue depending on the dollar," the country's prime minister Anwar Ibrahim said earlier this month. He added that Malaysia and China are already in talks to utilize the ringgit and renminbi for trade deals.

Business Insider