Nigeria, Africa's largest economy, is facing a dire poverty forecast according to the World Bank's latest Africa's Pulse report released during the ongoing Spring Meetings in Washington, DC. The report paints a troubling picture of Nigeria's position as a global poverty epicenter, with current conditions expected to deteriorate further over the next few years.
The World Bank projects that poverty in Nigeria will increase by 3.6 percentage points through 2027, bucking the trend of poverty reduction expected in non-resource-rich African countries. Currently, Nigeria accounts for a staggering 19% of sub-Saharan Africa's extremely poor population—translating to over 106 million Nigerians living on less than $2.15 per day. This represents approximately 15% of the world's poorest people, underscoring the severity of the crisis in Africa's most populous nation.
Sub-Saharan Africa remains the global center of extreme poverty, hosting 80% of the world's 695 million extremely poor people in 2024—roughly 560 million individuals. Within the region, half of these impoverished people are concentrated in just four countries, with Nigeria leading, followed by the Democratic Republic of Congo (14%), Ethiopia (9%), and Sudan (6%).
The report highlights that resource-rich, fragile countries like Nigeria face particularly challenging prospects for poverty reduction due to structural economic issues, slowing oil prices, and weak fiscal structures. "This follows a well-established pattern whereby resource wealth combined with fragility or conflict is associated with the highest poverty rates—averaging 46% in 2024, which is 13 percentage points higher than in non-fragile, resource-rich countries," the report states.
Despite some recent gains in Nigeria's economic activity, particularly in the non-oil sector during the last quarter of 2024, these improvements have not translated to meaningful poverty reduction. The country's persistent poverty reflects deep structural challenges including high inflation, naira depreciation, insecurity, and widespread unemployment. PwC projects that an additional 13 million Nigerians will be pushed into poverty in 2025 alone due to these economic headwinds.
The continental outlook is equally concerning, with the number of extremely poor people in sub-Saharan Africa expected to increase by 90 million between 2022 and 2027, pushing the total from 576 million in 2025 to 589 million by 2027.
To address these challenges, the World Bank recommends that Nigeria focus on improving fiscal management and building a stronger fiscal contract with citizens to promote inclusive economic development and sustainable poverty alleviation.