RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

EU agrees €1 billion ammo package for Ukraine

EU members have agreed on a financing mechanism that would entail Ukraine receiving €1 billion worth of ammunition as part of the bloc’s assistance plan, the EU Council said in a statement on Friday. The package is expected to include mostly 155-mm-calibre artillery rounds and missiles “if requested.”

This comes in addition to another €1 billion worth of ammo the bloc’s members agreed to send to Kiev out of its own stocks in April.

“Together with the previous decision to swiftly provide ammunition from existing stocks, we are committing €2 billion to this purpose, bringing the total EU military support to Ukraine to €5.6 billion,” the EU's top diplomat, Josep Borrell, said.

The ammunition will be purchased and delivered by EU members, the statement explains, adding that to be reimbursed, procurement contracts or purchase orders will need to be concluded before September 30, 2023. The ammunition must only be purchased from “economic operators established in the EU or Norway,” the EU Council said.

The measure comes as part of a multi-part scheme adopted by the Council on March 20, which aimed to provide Ukrainian forces with one million rounds of artillery ammunition within 12 months.

The scheme initially prompted some disagreements among EU member states, with France reportedly demanding compensation for supplies which Kiev never even requested, according to Poland’s PAP news agency.

The bloc eventually managed to agree on the “first track” of the plan worth €1 billion on April 13. A week later, the New York Times reported that Western nations were falling short in their efforts to provide Ukraine with the necessary amounts of weapons systems and munitions.

The Times noted that most of the promised German-made Leopard tanks were still being refurbished. The paper said it would take the EU and US industries “years to catch up with the demand” of Kiev, which are “essentially limitless.”

Ukraine has also repeatedly criticized its Western backers over the delays and supposed lack of sufficient supplies.

Moscow, meanwhile, has repeatedly warned that “pumping” Kiev with arms and ammunition will only prolong the conflict and risks a dangerous escalation, potentially even a direct confrontation between Russia and NATO.

** US experts warn of ‘Russian air superiority’ over Ukraine

The Russian air force could wreak havoc on Ukraine’s armor and infantry if Kiev launches its much-anticipated counteroffensive without air cover, a prominent US military expert has told Newsweek. Another acknowledged supply problems with Kiev’s air defenses, while a third dismissed technical concerns to argue Ukrainian morale would prevail.

The Russians “have an almost overwhelming level of air superiority they have not introduced into the war yet,” Dale Buckner, a retired US Army officer who now heads the international security firm Global Guardian, told Newsweek. 

The MiG-35, Su-35 and Su-57 jets can “decimate” the counteroffensive if they can catch armor and infantry columns in the open, said Buckner. “So there’s a real tactical risk on the ground for the Ukrainians if they don’t have proper air defense and if they don't have multiple layers of air defense,” he added.

Newsweek described the Russian Aerospace Force as “the world’s second-largest,” with an estimated 900 fighters and 120 bombers.

Buckner believes that Moscow has been holding its considerable air force in reserve “for a much larger conflict,” but might deploy at least some planes if there is a belief the Ukrainian forces lack adequate cover.

Retired US Marine General Frank McKenzie was far more optimistic about Ukraine’s chances. 

“I’m not sure that we’re going to suddenly see a massive shift in the Russian approach to this war in the air,” said the former head of US Central Command who oversaw the Afghanistan withdrawal in 2021. Now at the Global and National Security Institute at the University of South Florida, McKenzie argued Russia didn’t have much “left in the cupboard” while the West was busily resupplying Ukraine.

“The heart of the people doing the conducting of those operations is a factor,” said McKenzie, arguing that the Russians lacked enthusiasm. “Part of it comes down to who can hang on the longest, who has more heart for the fight, even in a technical thing like air defense and air warfare.”

Mark Cancian of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) think tank has noted that Kiev was redirecting air defenses to frontline units from cities and infrastructure. He told Newsweek that the Russian air force has been “risk-averse” and that he did not expect them to “roam Ukrainian skies imminently.”

“If the Ukrainian air defenses continue to deteriorate, the Russians will become increasingly aggressive,” Cancian said, adding that this “will take some time.”

In recent weeks, Russian tactical aviation has begun bombing Ukrainian targets near the frontline with modified FAB-500 glide bombs, encountering almost no resistance. Ukrainian Air Force spokesman Colonel Yury Ignat told reporters on Tuesday that Kiev was powerless to stop the bombs and pleaded for the US and its allies to send F-16 fighters.

WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Russia's Wagner threatens to leave Bakhmut, Ukraine says mercenaries reinforcing

Russia's main mercenary group announced plans on Friday to withdraw from the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, but Ukraine said the fighters were reinforcing positions to try to seize it before Russia marks World War Two Victory Day next week.

Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin said his men had been starved of ammunition and would expect the army to take their place in Bakhmut next Wednesday, jeopardising what has long been Russia's main target in its attempt to carve up its neighbour.

"My lads will not suffer useless and unjustified losses in Bakhmut without ammunition," Prigozhin said in a video accompanying a written withdrawal announcement addressed to military leaders including President Vladimir Putin.

The announcement said "bureaucrats" had held back supplies despite knowing that Wagner's target date to capture the city was May 9, the day of the World War Two commemoration.

"If, because of your petty jealousy, you do not want to give the Russian people the victory of taking Bakhmut, that's your problem," Prigozhin added in the video.

State-owned RIA news agency later reported that Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu had instructed one of his deputy ministers to ensure troops had all the weapons they needed.

The battle for Bakhmut, which Russia sees as a stepping stone to other cities in Ukraine's Donbas region still beyond its control, has been the most intense of the conflict, costing thousands of lives on both sides in months of grinding warfare.

CLINGING ON

Ukrainian troops have been pushed back in recent weeks but have clung on in the city to inflict as many Russian losses as possible ahead of Kyiv's planned big push against the invading forces along the 1,000 km (620 mile) front line.

Ukraine's Armed Forces General Staff said in an evening report that Ukrainian forces repelled more than 30 attacks on the main sectors of the front line on Friday, with Bakhmut and Maryinka to the south seeing the heaviest fighting.

Pavlo Kyrylenko, governor of Donetsk region, said on the Telegram messaging app that Russian missiles had struck a heavy machinery manufacturing plant in the town of Kramatorsk and a home furnishing factory in the town of Sloviansk. He said there were no injuries in either attack.

Both towns are west of the front in and around Bakhmut.

Reuters pictures and video from Kramatorsk showed the machinery plant heavily damaged with windows blown out, facades torn off and top floors reduced to a twisted mass of metal and other building materials.

"Because of the lack of ammunition, our losses are increasing exponentially every day," Prigozhin's statement said. His fighters would be obliged to hand over their positions in Bakhmut to defence ministry units on May 10 and then withdraw to logistics camps "to lick our wounds", he added.

SMOKESCREEN?

It was not clear whether Prigozhin, who often makes impulsive comments, would proceed with the withdrawal if his men got more ammunition or if the dispute might be a smokescreen.

A senior Ukrainian official said Russia was bringing Wagner mercenary fighters from along the front line to Bakhmut to capture it by Victory Day.

"We are now seeing them pulling (fighters) from the entire offensive line where the Wagner fighters were, they are pulling (them) to the Bakhmut direction," Deputy Defence Minister Hanna Maliar said on Ukrainian television.

The Kremlin declined to comment on Prigozhin's statement.

Earlier, Prigozhin was pictured surrounded by corpses he said were his men, shouting abuse at Defence Minister Shoigu and Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov.

Prigozhin said Shoigu and Gerasimov must bear responsibility for "tens of thousands of Wagner dead and injured".

Prigozhin's vow to pull out of Bakhmut highlighted the pressure Russian forces are under as Ukraine makes the final preparations for a counter-offensive backed by thousands of Western-donated armoured vehicles and freshly trained troops.

The Russian-installed governor of Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia region, Yevgeny Balitsky, said he had ordered the evacuation of villages close to the front line with Ukrainian forces there, saying that Ukrainian shelling had intensified in recent days.

The Ukrainian counterattack is viewed as likely to take in the Zaporizhzhia region, about 80% of which is held by Moscow.

Some residents left the southern Ukrainian city of Kherson in cars and buses on Friday, and others stocked up on groceries, before the start of an unusually long weekend curfew.

The announcement of the curfew, to last from Friday evening to Monday morning, has prompted speculation in Kherson that the city is about to be used as a launch point for the counter-attack.

Speaking on return from visits to Helsinki and The Hague, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said in an address he had won "a powerful reinforcement of weapons for our soldiers - on land, in the air and at sea" as a result of talks with allies there.

Meanwhile, the pace of grain shipments from Ukraine under a U.N.-backed initiative has slowed as concerns grow over ships getting stuck if a deal is not renewed later this month, according to sources and data. Ukraine, Russia, Turkey and the United Nations failed to authorize any new ships on Friday under the deal.

Russia has suffered few direct attacks during the war, but Russian news agencies reported a second drone attack in as many days on its Ilsky oil refinery on Friday, causing a fire but no casualties. It was not immediately clear who launched it.

RT/Reuters