Saturday, 17 June 2023 04:38

What to know after Day 478 of Russia-Ukraine war

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WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Zelenskyy urges African leaders to press Putin on release of political prisoners

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy appealed to a group of African leaders to ask his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, to free political prisoners from Crimea and beyond — saying it could be an important part of their trip to Russia on Saturday.

Seven African leaders — presidents of Comoros, Senegal, South Africa and Zambia, as well as Egypt’s prime minister and top envoys from the Republic of Congo and Uganda — visited Ukraine on Friday as part of a self-styled “peace mission” to both Ukraine and Russia to try to help end their nearly 16-month-old war.

The African leaders were traveling to meet with Putin on Saturday in the Russian city of St. Petersburg.

The mission to Ukraine, the first of its kind by African leaders, comes in the wake of other peace initiatives such as one by China, and it carried extra importance for the African countries: They rely on food and fertilizer deliveries from Russia and Ukraine, whose war has impeded exports from one of the world’s most important breadbaskets.

“This conflict is affecting Africa negatively,” South African President Cyril Ramaphosa said at a news conference alongside Zelenskyy and the four other African heads of state or government, after the leaders met for closed-door talks Friday afternoon.

Ramaphosa and others acknowledged the intensity of the fight and the animosity between Russia and Ukraine, but insisted all wars must come to an end — and that the delegation wants to help expedite that.

“I do believe that Ukrainians feel that they must fight and not give up. The road to peace is very hard,” he said, adding that “there is a need to bring this conflict to an end sooner rather than later.”

The delegation, including Senegal’s President Macky Sall and Presidents Hakainde Hichilema of Zambia, represents a cross-section of African views about the war.

South Africa, Senegal and Uganda have avoided censuring Moscow for the conflict, while Egypt, Zambia and Comoros voted against Russia last year in a U.N. General Assembly resolution condemning Moscow’s invasion. Many African nations have long had close ties with Moscow, dating back to the Cold War when the Soviet Union supported their anti-colonial struggles.

The tenor of the press conference soured when Comoros President Azali Assoumani floated the idea of a “road map” to peace, prompting questions from Zelenskyy who sought a clarification and insisted he didn’t want “any surprises” from their visit with Putin.

Zelenskyy then urged them to help free political prisoners from Crimea, which Russia illegally annexed in 2014.

“Would you please ask Russia to liberate the political prisoners?” Zelenskyy said. “Maybe this will be an important result of your mission, of your ‘road map’.”

Zelenskyy expressed thinly veiled frustration about their trip, saying they would have “conversations with the terrorists” on Saturday.

International human rights organizations claim Russia has targeted the Crimean Tatar ethnic group with arbitrary detentions and unjustified prosecutions since Russia annexed Crimea in 2014. Many have been sentenced to lengthy prison terms.

“The Russian Federation misuses its legislation for political purposes, in particular to suppress the nonviolent struggle of the Crimean Tatars and their protest against the occupation of Crimea,” the Crimean Tatar Resource Center said in a statement last year.

Ramaphosa, who laid out 10 priorities to help pave the way to ending the war, said he planned to have a bilateral meeting with Putin in part to discuss the Russian leader’s possible attendance at a planned August summit, hosted by South Africa, of the so-called “BRICS” countries, which also include Brazil, China and India.

The International Criminal Court in March issued an international arrest warrant against Putin over Russian abductions of Ukrainian children, which could complicate any trip by Putin to South Africa. Ramaphosa said he alone would decide whether to invite the Russian leader, saying it was still “under consideration.”

Before meeting with Zelenskyy, the African leaders went to Bucha, a Kyiv suburb where bodies of civilians lay scattered in the streets last year after Russian troops abandoned a campaign to seize the capital and withdrew from the area.

The delegation’s stop in Bucha was symbolically significant, because the town has come to stand for the brutality of Moscow’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The Russian occupation of Bucha left hundreds of civilians dead, with some showing signs of torture.

While in Bucha, the visitors placed commemorative candles at a small memorial outside a church near where a mass grave was unearthed.

On their way back to the capital, air raid sirens went off in Kyiv — prompting them to briefly return to their hotel as a “precautionary measure,” Ramaphosa spokesman Vincent Magwenya said.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba tweeted: “Russian missiles are a message to Africa: Russia wants more war, not peace.”

The Ukrainian air force said it shot down six Russian Kalibr cruise missiles, six Kinzhal hypersonic ballistic missiles and two reconnaissance drones. It gave no details on where they were shot down.

Germany will deliver another 64 Patriot missiles to Ukraine, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said Friday, to help shield it against Russia’s relentless aerial attacks.

Officials who helped organize the delegation’s talks said the African leaders not only aimed to initiate a peace process but also to assess how Russia, which is under heavy international sanctions, can be paid for fertilizer exports that Africa desperately needs.

They are also set to discuss the related issue of ensuring more grain shipments out of Ukraine, and the possibility of more prisoner swaps.

“Life is universal, and we must protect lives – Ukrainian lives, Russian lives, global lives,” Zambian President Hakainde Hichilema told The Associated Press. “Instability anywhere is instability everywhere.”

The African peace overture comes as Ukraine launches a counteroffensive to dislodge the Kremlin’s forces from occupied areas, using Western-supplied advanced weapons in attacks along the 1,000-kilometer (600-mile) front line. Western analysts and military officials have cautioned that the campaign could last a long time.

China presented its own peace proposal at the end of February. Ukraine and its allies largely dismissed the plan, and the warring sides look no closer to a cease-fire.

Ukrainian troops have recorded successes along three stretches of the front line in the south and east, Andriy Kovalev, a spokesman for the General Staff of Ukraine’s armed forces said in a statement Friday.

According to Kovalev, Ukrainian forces moved forward south of the town of Orikhiv in Zaporizhzhia province, in the direction of the village of Robotyne, as well as around Levadne and Staromaiorske, on the boundary between Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk province further east.

Kovalev said Ukraine’s troops also advanced in some areas around Vuhledar, a mining town in Donetsk that was the site of a key tank battle.

It wasn’t possible to independently verify the claims.

Russian shelling on Thursday and overnight killed two civilians and wounded two others in southern Ukraine’s flood-hit Kherson region, where a major dam was destroyed last week, according to the region’s governor, Oleksandr Prokudin.

Russian forces over the previous day launched 54 strikes across the province, using mortars, artillery, multiple rocket launchers, drones, missiles and aircraft, Prokudin said.

Floodwaters in the Kherson region have continued to recede, with the average level in flood-hit areas standing at 1.67 meters (about 5 feet) — down from 5 meters (16 feet) last Tuesday, the Ukrainian presidential office said.

** 'From Ukraine with love:' The elite night-time drone units bombing Russian military

The small screen on the soldier's remote control, the only light source allowed, illuminates his piercing stare while his drone, miles away, is moments away from dropping a 35-pound (16kg) explosive on a Russian position.

"This moment we call 'from Ukraine with love,'" his senior officer says.

This secretive night-time strike is being carried out by an elite unit comprising elements from the Security Service of Ukraine -- commonly known as SBU -- and the country's Patrol Police.

The operation was green-lit after the Ukrainian military reported the presence of a launch site from where Russian forces were firing Kornet rockets, missiles intended for use against tanks, towards their troops.

"We know this target relatively recently, it was discovered literally today," an SBU senior officer, who goes by the call sign Bankir, explains.

During the day, the drone unit spent hours scoping out possible night-time launch sites for their mission, as well as figuring out the exact coordinates of their target.

The comprehensive preparation involves flying different surveillance drones toward Russian positions, but also relying on additional intelligence from other Ukrainian units until they have a complete picture of the target.

"Reconnaissance has revealed the enemy's firing position, which is used to destroy the equipment of the defense forces of Ukraine," Bankir explains. "It will be destroyed today," he adds.

Before the launch they drive in complete darkness, turning off their headlights and using night-vision goggles to see the road, and reach a designated launch site.

"We try, we strive," Bankir says. "This has to happen under all of these conditions."

They hide their vehicles and proceed a few hundreds of meters on foot, while Ukrainian and Russian forces trade artillery salvos. Relying only on red light — which they say, is harder for Russian drones to spot from afar, especially when they're not looking — they illuminate the way.

"Go, go, go," one soldier says. The others make a dash for cover.

It's all carefully choreographed to hide their tracks and guarantee their position remains concealed from Russian surveillance and artillery, while they carry out their strike.

On site they prepare the drone -- a large, Ukrainian-made quadcopter — and the explosive they are dropping on the Russian position. The device can carry a payload of up to 45 pounds, but this evening they're making an improvised explosive -- using a shell left behind by Russian forces when they pulled out of Kherson.

"We 3D-printed these fins, and this [pipe] is from a hardware store," a senior officer with the call sign Marat, from the Patrol Police, explains as his men glue the whole thing together. "Now we finish our preparation, the bomb is ready, and we are ready to go."

An offensive in the dark

Night-time missions similar to this one have so far been a defining feature of the initial stages of Ukraine's counter-offensive, especially in the southern part of the country. Ukrainian strikes can shake buildings as far as the city of Zaporizhzhia and explosions light up the skies, despite the city being around 30 miles (48 km) from the frontline.

Ukraine has remained coy about the counter-offensive and is even more reserved when it comes to the tactical details of its probing and pushing operations along the frontlines. But on the Russian side, there is a clear belief Ukraine has a distinct advantage in this area.

"Why is the war happening at night? It's as clear as day," Russian military blogger Vladimir Sladkov wrote on his Telegram channel. "(Western) equipment has excellent night optics."

The Russian-installed head of Zaporizhzhia civil-military administration, Vladimir Rogov, shares a similar view.

"There are several reasons (why Ukraine is attacking at night)," he posted on his Telegram. "The first is to reduce the efficiency of our aviation; the second is to avoid losses from accurate hits by the shock company of kamikaze drones of our 42nd division; and the third is to make the most of the advantages of using Western-supplied equipment and instruments."

The United States has been supplying Ukrainian forces with night-vision technology since at least 2018, which is not usually available to most regular Russian soldiers.

Recently donated armored vehicles -- such as Leopard 2 tanks and M2 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles -- also have advanced night-vision capabilities, in most cases better than those available on older Soviet equipment still employed by Russian forces.

A successful hit

As the Ukrainian drone approaches its Russian target, the mission enters its most critical phase. The device is loud and once it closes in on Moscow's soldiers, they'll be able to hear it, even if they may be unable to see it.

Moments later, text messages intercepted by Ukraine's SBU reveals Moscow's soldiers have caught on. "Enemy bird spotted," one soldier texts. "Understood!" another responds.

Knowing a drone is in the air means Russian soldiers will try to bring it down. "They're firing at it," Marat says. "They cannot see the drone, but they're shooting towards the sound."

T he unit also expects Russian forces to try and take them out, launching flares into the air to illuminate the entire surrounding area.

"They try to see any anomalies and our presence here, now, is an anomaly. If they have a clear picture of that area, they will see that something has changed. Cars appeared, there was some movement," Marat explains. "If they see us, they will try to get us."

Luckily, on this occasion, the unit was not spotted, but there have been times where they have come under intense Russian artillery fire.

"It happens very often," Marat says. "Therefore, we try to change the place of launch, time, frequency of the radio signal every time."

Thorough planning means they have only lost four drones since the beginning of Russia's full-scale invasion last year -- far fewer than other units, which in some cases burn through several devices a day -- and they have yet to lose a single team member.

"Team safety comes first," Marat adds. "Then, the safety of the drone."

Immediately after the target is hit, the focus shifts to getting the drone back to base, using a previously mapped out route, hoping to avoid air defenses.

"It's coming back now," the pilot says. "It's traveling at 14 meters per second."

Minutes later it's finally out of danger. "I want a smoke," the pilot says as he sighs in relief.

As soon as it lands, the unit quickly packs everything up and moves out, leaving no trace of its presence. Drone footage recorded the following day reveals a destroyed target, another successful mission.

Still, the men say, their job is not done just yet, not while Russian forces continue to occupy Ukraine. "We really want to take revenge for all the evil they have done to us," Bankir says.

 

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

Putin predicts fate of F-16 in Ukraine

Any F-16 fighters the West sends to Kiev will be destroyed just like the tanks they have already delivered, Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Friday. In case they are based outside of Ukraine, that may lead to open war with NATO, he added.

Speaking at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF), Putin described how the much-heralded Ukrainian offensive, using Western heavy equipment delivered for the purpose, was actually going.

“Tanks are burning. Among them are the Leopards. They burn. So will the F-16s. There is no doubt,” the Russian president said.

Kiev has repeatedly demanded F-16s from the US and its allies. Ukrainian pilots are already being trained on the fourth-generation jets, though none have yet been delivered. The US-made fighter requires very specific airfield conditions, however, which Ukraine may not be able to provide. 

In case Kiev gets some F-16s and stations them at bases outside Ukraine, “we will need to look at how and where we can hit those assets used in combat operations against us,” Putin said at SPIEF. “This is a serious danger of further dragging NATO into this armed conflict.”

Moscow has repeatedly warned NATO that sending weapons to Kiev only prolongs the conflict and risks open confrontation. The US and its allies insist they are not a party to the hostilities, but only supplying Ukraine with money, weapons, ammunition, equipment, intelligence and advice in order to “defeat Russia.”

Though the F-16s do not pose a serious challenge to the Russian air force, Moscow has raised concerns with the UN Security Council over their possible deployment because the planes are capable of carrying tactical nuclear bombs. Earlier this month, one influential US think-tank advocated giving such weapons to Ukraine. 

** Russia always retaliates after Ukrainian strikes — Putin

Russia always responds militarily to Ukrainian strikes, but it seldom presents its retaliation as breaking news, Russian President Vladimir Putin said on the sidelines of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) on Friday.

"We hit military targets with high-accuracy long-range and high-yield weapons and succeed in this respect. It's enough to see arms depots, warehouses and barracks housing personnel, including foreign mercenaries destroyed. There always follows a retaliation. We just avoid presenting it as breaking news very often, but this retaliation is sensitive and the enemy knows this," Putin said.

Kiev must understand that in case of continued attacks on Russian territory, Moscow will consider creating a "sanitary cordon" in Ukraine, he warned.

"If these attacks on our adjacent territories continue, we will consider creating a 'sanitary cordon' on Ukrainian territory. They just have to realize where they are heading for," he said.

The St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF), the largest annual economic and business event in Russia, is running on June 14-17. The theme of this year's forum is "Sovereign Development as a Basis for a Just World: Joining Forces for Future Generations". The event is organized by the Roscongress Foundation.

** Conflict to remain permanent while Ukraine aspires to join NATO — Medvedev

Russia’s conflict with "Nazi Ukraine" will be permanent and if regime change occurs in Kiev, new authorities will not ask to join NATO, Deputy Russian Security Council Chairman Dmitry Medvedev said.

On his Telegram channel he reiterated remarks by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg who ruled out Ukraine joining the alliance during the conflict but stressed that doors would remain open for Kiev. "What does this mean from a practical point of view? We don’t need Ukraine in NATO. In any case, until any remnant of this country remains in its present state," he wrote.

"Therefore, for Nazi Ukraine the conflict will be permanent. And a new political regime in Kiev (if there is one) will definitely not ask for NATO membership," Medvedev asserted.

 

AP/CNN/RT/Tass


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