Wednesday, 19 July 2023 04:55

What to know after Day 510 of Russia-Ukraine war

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WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Russia carries out air strikes for second night on Ukraine's Odesa port - governor

Ukrainian air defence systems were engaged in the early hours of Wednesday in repelling a Russian air attack on the southern port of Odesa for a second consecutive night, the region's governor said.

Russia struck Ukrainian ports on Tuesday, a day after pulling out of a U.N.-backed deal for safe Black Sea grain exports, a decision that raised concern primarily in Africa and Asia of rising food prices and hunger.

"Do not approach the windows, do not shoot or show the work of air defence forces," Odesa governor Oleh Kiper said on the Telegram messaging app.

All of the eastern part of Ukraine was under air raid alerts, starting soon after midnight on Wednesday.

In other battlefield reports, Moscow and Kyiv gave vastly different accounts of fighting in northeastern Ukraine on Tuesday.

Six weeks since Ukraine launched a counteroffensive in the east and south, Russia is mounting a ground offensive of its own in the northeast. Moscow says the Ukrainian assault has failed.

A Russian Defence Ministry spokesman said its forces had advanced by up to 2 km (1.2 miles) in the direction of Kupiansk, an important railway junction in the northeastern Kharkiv region.

But Ukrainian Deputy Defence Minister Hanna Maliar said the initiative in the area had switched to Ukrainian forces.

She said Ukrainian forces made new gains near Bakhmut in the east, a town that was captured by Russian forces in May after months of battles.

Valery Shershen, a spokesperson for Ukrainian troops on the southern front, reported heavy fighting around the village of Staromayorske. "We have made advances through the streets," Shershen told the Espreso TV online outlet but said Ukrainian forces did not have complete control of the village.

Russian Defence Ministry accounts said Moscow's forces had hit groups of Ukrainian soldiers around Staromayorske.

Reuters could not independently verify the battlefield reports of either side.

Since Ukraine began its counteroffensive last month, its forces equipped with billions of dollars worth of new Western weapons and ammunition have yet to attempt a major breakthrough across heavily defended Russian lines.

UN WORKS ON IDEAS FOR GRAIN EXPORTS

At the United Nations on Tuesday, U.N. spokesman Stephane Dujarric said there were a "number of ideas being floated" to help get Ukrainian and Russian grain and fertilizer to global markets. Moscow's decision raised concern primarily in Africa and Asia of rising food prices and hunger.

The Black Sea deal was brokered by the U.N. and Turkey in July last year to combat a global food crisis worsened by Russia's February 2022 invasion of Ukraine and its blockade of Ukrainian ports. The two countries are among the world's top grain exporters.

For Ukraine's part, "we are fighting for global security and for our Ukrainian farmer" and working on options to keep commitments on food supply, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said in his nightly video address on Tuesday.

Moscow spurned calls from Ukraine to allow shipping to resume without Russian participation, with the Kremlin openly saying ships entering the area without its guarantees would be in danger.

"We're talking about an area that's close to a war zone," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. "Without the appropriate security guarantees, certain risks arise there. So if something is formalised without Russia, these risks should be taken into account."

Russia says it could return to the grain deal, but only if its demands are met for rules to be eased for its own exports of food and fertiliser. Western countries call that an attempt to use leverage over food supplies to force a weakening in financial sanctions, which already allow Russia to sell food.

 

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

US believes Western warplanes won’t help Ukraine – WaPo

Even if Ukraine receives modern Western-made jets, they will be of little use because of Russia’s powerful air defenses, the Washington Post reported on Tuesday, citing unnamed US officials.
Amid a Ukrainian counteroffensive that Moscow claims has failed to gain any ground, officials in Kiev have stepped up requests for advanced aircraft, particularly US-designed F-16s, arguing they could play a key role in countering Russian air power.
While Kiev’s Western backers have announced a training program for Ukrainian pilots to fly the jets, they have yet to greenlight their delivery.
According to the Washington Post, Ukrainian officials have rebuked their Western counterparts, claiming that if they were in the same situation as Kiev, they would never have pressed ahead with a large-scale offensive without air support.

“So, to say that it [the offensive] is slow or too fast is at least ridiculous to hear from those who have no idea what it is,” the commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s armed forces, Valery Zaluzhny, told the paper.

However, according to unnamed US officials interviewed by the Post, “Western jets would have little utility” for Ukraine in the current circumstances because of Russia’s “extensive air defenses.” Instead, one source argued that Kiev’s best tactic would be to rely on a “combined-arms approach.” 

Another US official told the paper that while Washington has trained Kiev’s troops how to conduct offensive maneuvers and has provided them with mine-sweeping equipment, they are still struggling to overcome strong Russian anti-tank defenses and drone strikes. “We don’t underestimate or under-appreciate that it’s a very tough situation,” the source added.

Citing F-16 pilots, Bloomberg reported in May that while the jets would definitely help Kiev, they would not be a “game changer” because their radars and missile systems are inferior to modern Russian equipment. That would mean using the warplanes either defensively or as part of high-risk operations.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned that if the West proceeds with F-16 shipments to Ukraine, the aircraft “will burn” just like other hardware. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has said that F-16 deliveries would be an escalatory move as they can carry nuclear weapons.

** US pressuring Ukraine for ‘decisive breakthrough’ – WaPo

US officials are reportedly concerned that Ukraine is not making enough progress in its much-lauded counteroffensive, the Washington Post reported on Tuesday citing anonymous sources.

According to the outlet, Washington is urging Kiev to commit to a decisive breakthrough as Ukrainian commanders have yet to employ the large-scale offensive tactics they were taught by Western instructors.

An unnamed US official explained to the Washington Post that the West had trained Ukrainian forces in integrated offensive maneuvers, as well as provided mine-clearing equipment, and stressed that it was “paramount”that Kiev’s troops quickly apply those capabilities to breach Russia’s defenses.

Western officials have reportedly criticized Ukraine’s military for embracing an attrition-based approach aimed at firing artillery and missiles at command, transport and logistics sites at the rear of Russian positions instead of using Western-style “combined arms” operations that involve large-scale maneuvers featuring tanks, armored vehicles, infantry, artillery, and air power, the outlet said.

Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War have pointed out that Ukrainian commanders have chosen to embrace more low-profile advances involving groups of 15 to 50 soldiers in order to preserve manpower. The Washington Post also noted that Kiev has so far only fielded “four of a dozen trained brigades in the current campaign.”

Kiev’s attempts to breach Russian defenses have so far been met with “overwhelming artillery, anti tank missiles, loitering munitions and helicopter fire” which have caused significant losses. Russia’s extensive use of drones has also presented a challenge that “not even American forces – for all their combat experience in recent decades – have faced on this scale,” the Post said.

Experts have said that while advances on foot would likely reduce the attrition sustained by the Ukrainian army, such tactics would be much slower and be much less likely to provide an opportunity for a rapid breakthrough.

Ukrainian officials, in turn, have rebuked demands from their Western counterparts to speed up the operation and have instead stressed the need to avoid unnecessary losses and complained about the lack of air support. 

Kiev has repeatedly pleaded with its Western backers provide its forces with US-designed F-16 fighter jets, arguing that they would play a key role in countering Russian air power. 

Western officials, however, have reportedly insisted that the jets would not be a “game changer,” while Russia has responded by saying  the aircraft would be destroyed like any other foreign military equipment in Ukraine.

** Russian air defenses destroy 43 Ukrainian military drones over past day

Russian air defense forces destroyed 43 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles and intercepted three rockets of the US-made HIMARS multiple launch rocket system over the past day in the special military operation in Ukraine, Defense Ministry Spokesman Lieutenant-General Igor Konashenkov reported on Tuesday.

"During the last 24-hour period, air defense capabilities intercepted three rockets of the HIMARS multiple launch rocket system," the spokesman said.

In addition, Russian air defense systems destroyed 43 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles in areas near the settlements of Tavolzhanka and Zhovtnevoye in the Kharkov Region, Novodruzhesk, Berestovoye and Zaliman in the Lugansk People’s Republic, Krasnaya Gora and Podgornoye in the Donetsk People’s Republic, Novogorovka, Rabotino, Gulyaipole and Mirnoye in the Zaporozhye Region and Geroiskoye in the Kherson Region, the general reported.

 

RT


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