WESTERN PERSPECTIVE
Ukraine is now struggling to cling on, not to win
“After 970 days of war,” said Lloyd Austin, America’s defence secretary, visiting Kyiv on October 21st, “Putin has not achieved one single strategic objective.” And Mr Austin offered confidence: “Moscow will never prevail in Ukraine.” In private, however, his colleagues in the Pentagon, Western officials and many Ukrainian commanders are increasingly worried about the direction of the war and Ukraine’s ability to hold back Russian advances over the next six months.
Ukrainian forces have managed to hold on to Pokrovsk, an embattled town in the eastern Donbas region—an embarrassment for Mr Putin. But elsewhere along the front, Russia is slicing its way through Ukrainian defences. In Kupiansk in the north, its troops have cut Ukrainian formations in two at the Oskil river. In Chasiv Yar in the east, they have crossed the main Siverskyi Donets canal, after six months of trying. Farther south, Russian troops have taken high ground in and around Vuhledar, and they are moving in on Kurakhove from two directions. In Kursk, inside Russia, Ukraine has lost around half the territory it seized earlier this year.
The problem is not so much the loss of territory, which is limited and has come at enormous cost to Russia—600,000 dead and wounded since the start of the war, on American estimates, and 57,000 dead this year to October alone, according to Ukrainian intelligence. It is the steady erosion in the size and quality of Ukraine’s forces. Ukrainian units are under-strength and overstretched, worn thin by heavy casualties. Despite a new mobilisation law that took effect in May, the army, outside a handful of brigades, has struggled to recruit enough replacements, with young men reluctant to sign up to tours of duty that are at best indefinite and, at worst, one-way missions. Western partners are privately urging Ukraine’s leaders to lower the mobilisation age floor from 25 to increase the potential pool of recruits. But political sensitivities and fears over an already alarming demographic crisis stand in the way of any change.
In a recent essay, Jack Watling of the Royal United Services Institute, a think-tank in London, identifies several reasons for Ukraine’s declining fortunes. One is a shortfall in its air-defence interceptors, allowing Russian reconnaissance drones to establish what he calls “continuous and dense surveillance”. These in turn cue up ballistic-missile and drone strikes against Ukrainian artillery in the rear and glide bombs against troops at the front, allowing Russia to make slow but steady advances in small units, often using motorcycles because tanks are too easy to spot. Ukraine’s limited stock of shells—Russia currently has a two-to-one advantage in shellfire, according to Ivan Havrilyuk, Ukraine’s deputy defence minister—as well as tanks and armoured vehicles compounds that problem. The less firepower and armour are available, the greater the reliance on infantry and the greater the casualties.
Russia is not without its own serious problems. Next year it will spend a third of its national budget on defence, starving the civilian economy in the process. Inflation is perhaps double the official annual rate of more than 8%. In 2025 ordinary Russian families will begin to feel the economic pain for the first time, says a European intelligence official, adding that there are early signs of war fatigue among those closely connected to the conflict, such as mothers and other family members.
On the battlefield, Russia still relies on crude tactics that result in massive casualties. The decision to borrow thousands of North Korean troops, who are thought to be bound for the Kursk front, shows that Russian units are also stretched. Russia’s general staff and defence ministry have put “heavy pressure” on the Kremlin to mobilise more men, says the European official. “Russia now doesn’t have sufficient forces to mass,” says a senior NATO official. “If they achieved a breakthrough they could not exploit it.” There is little short-term risk of Russian troops streaming west to Dnipro or Odessa.
But the crisis in Russia’s war economy is likely to play out over a longer period. Russia’s defence industry depends in part on the refurbishment of Soviet-era stocks, which are getting low in critical areas such as armoured vehicles. It is nonetheless far outperforming Western production lines. The EU claims to be making more than 1m shells per year; Russia is making three times as many, and is also boosted by supplies from North Korea and Iran. “I just don’t know we can produce enough, give enough,” says a person familiar with the flow of American aid, though a recent $800m commitment to boost Ukraine’s indigenous drone production is welcome. “We have no more to give them without taking serious risks in other places.” On manpower, too, Russia remains solvent. Its army is recruiting around 30,000 men per month, says the NATO official. That is less than government targets, but is still enough to cover even the gargantuan losses of recent months.
Russia cannot fight for ever. But the worry among American, European and Ukrainian officials is that Ukraine’s breaking point will come first. “Moscow seems to be wagering that it can achieve its objectives in the Donbas next year,” writes Mr Watling, “and impose a rate of casualties and material degradation on the Ukrainian military high enough that it will no longer be capable of preventing further advances.” That, he warns, would give Russia leverage in any negotiations that follow.
The gloomy mood is evident in a shift in America’s language. Senior officials like Mr Austin still strike a confident note, promising that Ukraine will win. Those involved in the guts of planning in the Pentagon say that, in practice, the ambitions of early 2023—a Ukrainian force that could take back its territory or shock Russia into talks through a well-crafted armoured punch—have given way to a narrow focus on preventing defeat. “At this point we are thinking more and more about how Ukraine can survive,” says a person involved in that planning.
RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE
Russian forces liberate Voznesenka community in Donbass region over past day
Russian forces liberated the community of Voznesenka in the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) over the past 24 hours in the special military operation in Ukraine, Russia’s Defense Ministry reported on Thursday.
"Battlegroup Center units kept advancing deep into the enemy’s defenses and liberated the settlement of Voznesenka in the Donetsk People’s Republic," the ministry said in a statement.
Russia’s Battlegroup North inflicts 80 casualties on Ukrainian army in Kharkov area
Russia’s Battlegroup North inflicted roughly 80 casualties on Ukrainian troops and destroyed two enemy armored vehicles in its area of responsibility in the Kharkov Region over the past 24 hours, the ministry reported.
"Battlegroup North units inflicted losses in the Kharkov direction on formations of the Ukrainian army’s 71st jaeger, 113th and 120th territorial defense brigades in areas near the settlements of Volchansk and Liptsy in the Kharkov Region," the ministry said.
The Ukrainian army’s losses in that frontline area over the past 24 hours amounted to 80 personnel, two armored combat vehicles and seven motor vehicles, it specified.
Russia’s Battlegroup West inflicts 570 casualties on Ukrainian army over past day
Russia’s Battlegroup West inflicted roughly 570 casualties on Ukrainian troops and destroyed three enemy ammunition depots in its area of responsibility over the past day, the ministry reported.
"Battlegroup West units improved their tactical position and struck manpower and equipment of the Ukrainian army’s 14th, 60th and 116th mechanized, 25th air assault, 119th and 241st territorial defense and 1st National Guard brigades near Terny in the Donetsk People’s Republic, Zagryzovo, Lozovaya, Boguslavka, Kovsharovka and Petropavlovka in the Kharkov Region and in the area of the Serebryanka forestry. They repelled two counterattacks by formations of the Ukrainian army’s 14th and 28th mechanized brigades," the ministry said.
The Ukrainian army’s losses in that frontline area over the past 24 hours amounted to 570 personnel, an infantry fighting vehicle, a US-made M113 armored personnel carrier, seven motor vehicles, two 122mm D-30 howitzers, four Anklav-N and Kvertus electronic warfare stations and a Plastun radio-electronic surveillance station, it specified.
In addition, Russian forces destroyed three field ammunition depots of the Ukrainian army, it said.
Russia’s Battlegroup South inflicts 655 casualties on Ukrainian troops over past day
Russia’s Battlegroup South inflicted roughly 655 casualties on Ukrainian troops and destroyed three enemy tanks in its area of responsibility over the past day, the ministry reported.
"Battlegroup South units improved their frontline positions and inflicted casualties on formations of the Ukrainian army’s 30th, 33rd, 56th and 81st mechanized, 56th motorized infantry, 46th airmobile, 79th air assault and 116th territorial defense brigades near the settlements of Zaliznyanskoye, Druzhkovka, Dyleyevka, Orekhovo-Vasilevka, Reznikovka, Kurakhovo, Annovka and Seversk in the Donetsk People’s Republic," the ministry said.
The Ukrainian army lost 655 personnel, three tanks, an infantry fighting vehicle, an armored personnel carrier, 13 motor vehicles, a British-made 155mm Braveheart self-propelled artillery system, a Polish-manufactured 155mm Krab self-propelled artillery system, a 155mm M777 howitzer and a 105mm M119 artillery gun of US manufacture, two 122mm D-30 howitzers and a Croatian-made RAK-SA-12 multiple rocket launcher, it specified.
In addition, Russian forces destroyed two Anklav-N electronic warfare stations, a Plastun radio-electronic surveillance station and two ammunition depots of the Ukrainian army, it said.
Russia’s Battlegroup Center inflicts over 485 casualties on Ukrainian army in past day
Russia’s Battlegroup Center inflicted more than 485 casualties on Ukrainian troops and destroyed a German-made combat vehicle in its area of responsibility over the past day, the ministry reported.
Battlegroup Center units "inflicted losses on manpower and equipment of the Ukrainian army’s 33rd, 53rd, 100th and 109th mechanized, 95th air assault, 5th mountain assault, 142nd infantry and 101st territorial defense brigades near the settlements of Zelyonoye Pole, Leonidovka, Druzhba, Dzerzhinsk, Sukhaya Balka and Dimitrov in the Donetsk People’s Republic. They repelled 11 counterattacks by formations of the Ukrainian army’s 53rd and 117th mechanized and 152nd jaeger brigades, 49th and 425th assault battalions, 35th and 38th marine infantry brigades," the ministry said.
The Ukrainian army’s losses in that frontline area over the past 24 hours amounted to more than 485 personnel, a German-made Marder infantry fighting vehicle, five Kozak armored combat vehicles, a Turkish-made Kirpi armored fighting vehicle, five motor vehicles, a US-made 155mm M777 howitzer, a 152mm D-20 howitzer, two 152mm Msta-B howitzers, a 122mm Gvozdika motorized artillery system and two 122mm D-30 howitzers, it specified.
Russia’s Battlegroup East inflicts 145 casualties on Ukrainian army over past day
Russia’s Battlegroup East repulsed two Ukrainian army counterattacks and inflicted roughly 145 casualties on enemy troops in its area of responsibility over the past day, the ministry reported.
"Battlegroup East units improved their frontline positions and inflicted casualties on formations of the Ukrainian army’s 128th mountain assault, 127th and 128th territorial defense brigades near the settlements of Velikaya Novosyolka and Oktyabr in the Donetsk People’s Republic and Temirovka in the Zaporozhye Region. They repulsed two counterattacks by assault groups of the 123rd territorial defense brigade," the ministry said.
The Ukrainian army lost as many as 145 personnel, a tank, three armored combat vehicles and six motor vehicles in that frontline area over the past 24 hours, it specified.
The Economist/Tass