For visitors to Lagos, the gentle plea begins with immigration officials at the airport and is echoed across the streets of Africa’s most populous city: “Show me love.”

It is a familiar request for tips in a city of omnipresent hustle, but residents say the requests have intensified in the last year as people struggle under the crushing weight of Nigeria’s underperforming economy.

Wednesday marked the completion of the first year in office of the president, Bola Tinubu, after the disputed election of February 2023. It was also the 25th anniversary of Nigeria’s return to democracy, a promising point in a region where six out of eight coup attempts since 2020 have been successful. Official ceremonies were restrained, and on the eve of the landmark date, the national mood in the capital, Abuja, was far from celebratory.

Overall economic progress since 1999 has been hard to measure due to the many periods of growth and decline, said Bongo Adi, a professor of economics and data analytics at Lagos Business School. “The economy has moved in different directions over this period,” he said. The best era of economic welfare and sustained employment, however, was in the early 2000s under the former president Olusegun Obasanjo, he added.

Last year, Nigeria lost bragging rights as Africa’s largest economy when it dropped behind South Africa. The International Monetary Fund has already projected a further slip to fourth place behind Egypt and Algeria.

Data from the Nigerian Bureau of Statistics put the economy as growing slightly by 2.98% in the first quarter of 2024. But unemployment remains high in a country where more than 2 million people join the workforce annually.

In 2019, the monthly minimum wage was increased from N19,000 (£10) to N30,000 (£16), but many say that amount is nowhere close to enough. Workers nationwide say their living expenses have rocketed as food inflation – already in double digits – continues to rise. Electricity tariffs have surged by at least a hundred percent in the last year.

In 18 months, the price of bottled water has gone from N50 (3p) to N100 to N200. In some markets outside the big cities, yams are now also sold in huge slices, for those who cannot afford the whole vegetable. The cost of making the staple dish jollof rice has tripled in the last three years.

As a coping mechanism, analysts say young people are increasingly turning to sex work and cybercrime in small towns, especially in the south.

“The cost of living wants to kill the living,” one Nigerian lamented during a call-in show on national television.

‘Everything is really hard’

On 29 May 1999, as Nigeria transitioned from military rule to civilian leadership, Tinubu, now the president, was taking the oath of office to be the third elected governor of Lagos.

His supporters say he went on to lay the groundwork for transformation of the city’s economy and infrastructure in two four-year tenures. Today, his aides say he remains passionate about fixing Nigeria’s economic challenges.

The number of poor Nigerians “is totally unacceptable to the president … that is why it is perhaps his No 1 priority to tackle poverty, and he has a programme to stabilise and grow the economy in general,” Wale Edun, the finance minister, said last October at the launch of a welfare programme to give N75,000 (£42) across three months to each of the country’s 15 million low-income households.

From his first day in office, Tinubu began announcing textbook reforms that economists and policymakers had suggested for years: currency devaluation and cutting off a fuel subsidy that had fanned corruption for decades.

However, the changes have squeezed the economy – the naira is still fluttering and the subsidy cut tripled petrol prices – and have not been rolled out without controversy.

“Economy does not obey orders, not even military orders,” said Obasanjo, the president from 1999 to 2007, in Abuja last week, adding that the reforms were necessary but had been wrongly implemented.

In January, Betta Edu, the humanitarian affairs minister, was suspended while an investigation was launched into the alleged diversion of N585m (£329,000) in funds related to the welfare scheme. Edu has denied any wrongdoing.

A group of oil dealers and a prominent ruling party member have also claimed that the subsidy cuts have been reversed, although the junior petroleum minister, Heineken Lokpobiri, has denied this.

Tinubu’s critics have also pointed out that he has yet to appoint ambassadors but has named advisers for mundane things like national values and a personal assistant for teleprompter usage. Sources in the presidency say a cabinet shuffle could be announced in the coming days in what is being interpreted as a sign of his discontent with the current cast’s performance.

On Monday, he visited Lagos to open a controversial coastal highway stretching to Calabar, a port city in the oil-rich Niger Delta, close to the border with Cameroon. A few miles away from where he stood promising that the project would boost 30m businesses, traders in the Oniru market went about their day unexcited about the present and their future.

Chidi Obi, a 40-year-old owner of an electrical shop within the market who remembers being thrilled as a teenager in 1999, said he was “not feeling the democracy of Nigeria today” and accused unions of not doing enough to challenge the government.

“Look at fuel prices today, nobody is talking … people are dying,” he said. “The money you make in a day, one plate of food collects it all and you’re still going home to your wife and children and family. Everything is really hard.”

A refinement process

Across West Africa, there have been raging debates about whether democracy has lifted living standards as support for coups surges in Nigeria’s neighbours such as Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso.

Oge Onubogu, director of the Africa Program at the Washington DC-based thinktank Wilson Center, said citizen frustrations with democracy can, in fact, help strengthen the democratic system as long as leaders respond to them by pushing for more inclusive governance.

“For the first time in a long time, we are seeing citizens question the status quo, the state-society relationship,” she said. “People are saying it can no longer be business as usual. Citizens are rising up and questioning the way things are being done,” she added. “Isn’t that democracy itself? So maybe this provides that opportunity for us to even begin to think about how we reset.”

For many years, Nigeria was seen as the police officer of West Africa, given its outsized financial and military contributions to enforcing rule of law and fostering democracy within the Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas).

Tinubu, the current chair of Ecowas, has been pushing for a return to civilian administration in Niger where a 30 July 2023 coup ignited a split within the bloc. Yusuf Tuggar, Nigeria’s foreign affairs minister, argues that democracy offers better outcomes for everyday people.

“We’re not saying that everybody has to adopt our own style of democracy or another country’s style of democracy, but at least let’s have constitutional governance,” he said on Tuesday in Abuja.

“The reason why we’re emphasising constitutional governance is it’s easier to have policy predictability, property rights, effectiveness of contracts when your system is predicated on some sort of constitution … it’s easier to tackle some of the challenges that we’re facing like terrorism.”

Still, within Nigeria, people like Obi, the electrical shop owner, remain sceptical that democracy fulfils its promise. “Military should just take over and fix the economy. We are tired.”

The Guardian, UK

The National Executive Council of Afenifere, the Yoruba socio-political group, issued a strongly worded communique at the conclusion of its regular monthly meeting, held on Tuesday in Lagos. The meeting reviewed the state of the nation under the APC-led Federal Government, particularly focusing on the first year of President Bola Tinubu's administration.

Afenifere expressed deep concern over the current state of Nigeria, describing it as one of pervasive hardship, unremitting insecurity, runaway inflation, and massive unemployment. The group lamented that the people are worse off now than at the beginning of Tinubu's tenure. They accused the President of continuing the legacy of economic distress and pauperization started under his predecessor, Muhammadu Buhari.

The communique highlighted instances of what Afenifere termed "profligacy and reckless expenditure" by the Tinubu administration, citing specific examples:

- N90 billion as a subsidy for intending pilgrims to Hajj.

- N15 billion for building a new mansion for the Vice President.

- N40 billion for renovating the National Assembly complex.

- N70 billion as payment for outgoing National Assembly members.

- N70 billion as a welcome package for incoming National Assembly members.

- Innumerable billions for bullet-proof SUVs for National Assembly members.

- N10 billion for renovating the Presidential Lodge at Ribadu Road, Lagos.

Afenifere also criticized the Tinubu administration's international conduct, citing incidents where claims of investment deals and bilateral agreements were refuted by foreign entities, including MAERSK, the Qatar Government, and the UAE.

The group expressed shock over the government's handling of the Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway project, criticizing the lack of budgetary provision and the improper sequence of awarding the contract before conducting an Environmental Impact Assessment.

Afenifere accused the government of employing diversionary tactics to distract the public from its governance failures. They pointed to the re-introduction of the old National Anthem and the controversial legal maneuvering regarding the powers of the Federal Government over local government creation.

In other matters, the meeting approved Justice Faloye as the new National Publicity Secretary and noted a television station's error in confusing the name of Professor Ayo Banjo with that of Afenifere leader Pa Ayo Adebanjo, who chaired the meeting and thanked God for his continued life.

The communique, dated May 28, 2024, was signed by Alade Rotimi-John, Deputy Secretary General, on behalf of the National Executive Council of Afenifere.

Ekperikpe Ekpo, minister of state for petroleum resources (gas), has inaugurated a 5.2 million standard cubic feet per day (mmscfd) compressed natural gas (CNG) and autogas station in Lagos.

The inauguration ceremony themed ‘From Gas to Prosperity: CNG for All,’ was held in Lagos on Thursday.

Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited, in partnership with Transit Gas Nigeria Limited (TGNL), a subsidiary of Axxela, built the facility.

The CNG station is expected to fill about 3,700 cars or 600 trucks and buses per day.

Inaugurating the facility, Ekpo said the event represents a significant milestone in the nation’s journey towards energy security, accessibility, and affordability for Nigerians.

“As the nation continues to take giant strides in the adoption of CNG as a sustainable alternative to PMS and AGO, we are resolute to bring the benefits of CNG adoption closer to the Nigerian people, and projects like this are major milestones in achieving this objective,” he said.

“CNG, as we know, is cheaper, cleaner, more eco-friendly, and safer than traditional liquid fuels and will enhance the nation’s efforts to meet its nationally determined contributions (NDCs) obligations to the Paris climate change agreement.”

By harnessing the potential of the country’s natural gas resources, Ekpo said NNPC is not only driving economic growth but also paving the way for a more sustainable and prosperous future for all Nigerians.

‘NNPC: CNG STATION TO BE REPLICATED ACROSS GEOPOLITICAL ZONES’

Also speaking during the event, Mele Kyari, group chief executive officer (GCEO) of NNPC. said the station is the largest CNG facility of the NNPC, adding that it will be replicated in the six geopolitical zones.

Kyari said NNPC is building massive infrastructure in-country to ensure that gas reaches every corner of Nigeria and to build the volume required for economic growth.  

“This plant is a 5.2 million mmscf gas facility. And of course, not just that, it can actually fit 30 kits in a day. And also it has a possibility of providing gas to industries around this place and around Lagos in addition to the ability to fill cars or trucks when they come into the station,” he said

According to Kyari, the CNG station has the capacity to fill over 3000 cars every day. 

“Yes, we are converting our cars and a number of stations across the country. And this is the beginning. We are going to roll out a number of our stations across the country in our fuel stations so that people can have access to it,” he said.

“We also know that the private sector are doing many things in collaboration with us and we will also integrate that. We believe that these collaborations are within sight. It is being delivered so that in a year’s time, people will say ‘we don’t have to drive into fuel stations to buy PMS’.

“Needless to say, as of today, this is the largest facility we have for CNG in the country. And we’re going to replicate this across the six geo-political zones. We have selected locations.” 

He said the CNG station will be built in locations that allow for ease of delivery to other states.

Kyari thanked Axxela and other partners of NNPC for believing in the company. 

In August 2023, NNPC also partnered with NIPCO Gas Limited to construct 35 CNG stations across the country.

The Cable

In a tragic incident on Thursday, at least four soldiers were killed and one seriously injured when gunmen attacked a military checkpoint in Aba, the commercial hub of Abia State in Nigeria's South-east region.

The attack occurred around 8:00 a.m. at Obikabia Junction, with the assailants numbering about 15. The gunmen were reportedly enforcing a sit-at-home order declared by the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) to mark Biafra Day, an annual observance in the region.

A witness, identified only as Marvelous, recounted the scene: "Four of the soldiers were killed. The other soldier sustained serious gunshot injury. I am not sure he will survive it." Marvelous added that the attackers arrived in a black Highlander SUV, and some civilians also sustained gunshot injuries.

Video Evidence

Video clips of the attack, which have been circulating on social media platforms such as Facebook, show masked gunmen dressed in black firing sporadically at the checkpoint. PREMIUM TIMES counted over ten gunmen in the footage. The clips also depict a military patrol truck set ablaze and fear-stricken residents fleeing for safety.

In one video, an armed soldier, apparently the only survivor, is seen surveying the area after the attack. A voice in the background states, "This army man is the only surviving person here. He was the only person that ran away."

Another clip shows youths carrying a young man who had been hit by stray bullets. His blood-stained clothes indicate the severity of his injuries, and the youths are seen seeking a motorcycle to transport him to a medical facility.

Army's Response

The Nigerian Army has yet to officially comment on the incident. Efforts to reach Lieutenant Innocent Omale, spokesperson for the 14 Brigade in Ohafia, and Lieutenant Colonel Jonah Unuakhalu, spokesperson for the 82 Division, were unsuccessful. Both officers did not respond to calls and messages seeking confirmation and details of the attack.

Background

The sit-at-home order, announced by IPOB earlier this month, was intended to commemorate Biafra Day on May 30. Emma Powerful, IPOB's spokesperson, stated that the observance was to honor IPOB members who died "in the fight for freedom."

However, Simon Ekpa, a pro-Biafra agitator and leader of the IPOB faction Auto Pilot, announced a conflicting sit-at-home order spanning three days, from May 29 to 31. Ekpa, who is based in Finland, claimed the extended observance was to allow "Biafrans to vote for the Liberation of Biafra." He also called for the rescheduling of the West African Examination Council's Senior School Certificate Examination during this period in the South-east.

Security agencies in the South-east have vowed to resist the separatist-imposed sit-at-home orders. The ongoing unrest highlights the region's volatile security situation and the challenges faced by authorities in maintaining order.

Israel reopens Gaza food sales as Rafah raid chokes aid

The Israeli military has lifted a ban on the sale of food to Gaza from Israel and the occupied West Bank as its battlefield offensive chokes international aid, according to Palestinian officials, businessmen and international aid workers.

Army authorities gave Gazan traders the green light to resume their purchases from Israeli and Palestinian suppliers of food such as fresh fruit, vegetables and dairy goods this month, days after Israeli forces launched an assault on the enclave's southernmost city of Rafah, the people said.

The offensive against Rafah, a key gateway into Gaza from Egypt, has effectively halted the flow of U.N. aid to the devastated Palestinian territory. Israel is coming under mounting global pressure to ease the crisis as humanitarian agencies warn of looming famine.

"Israel phoned Gazan distributors who had been purchasing goods from the West Bank and Israel before the war," said Ayed Abu Ramadan, chair of the Gaza Chamber of Commerce. "It told them it was ready to coordinate the pick-up of goods."

Reuters, which interviewed more than a dozen people familiar with the development, is the first news outlet to report on the details and impact of this resumption of commercial food deliveries bound for sale in Gazan markets and stores.

The shift marks the first time any goods produced inside Israel or the West Bank, an Israeli-occupied Palestinian territory, have been allowed into Gaza since war erupted in October last year, according to the Palestinian officials, traders and residents.

Asked by Reuters about the resumption of deliveries, COGAT, the branch of the Israeli military responsible for aid transfers, said it was looking at ways to boost humanitarian aid and increase the amount of food for sale in Gaza.

"Allowing for the private sector to bring some food into the Gaza Strip is part of those efforts to increase the amount of food that's coming in," spokesperson Shimon Freedman added.

Aid workers have urged Israel for months to allow more commercial deliveries to enter Gaza so fresh food can supplement international aid, which mostly contains non-perishables like flour and tinned food.

The reopening is no panacea, though.

The flow of deliveries, conducted via the Kerem Shalom border crossing between southern Gaza and Israel, has been erratic, according to Palestinian officials who said anywhere between 20 and 150 trucks - each carrying up to 20 tonnes of food - have entered per day depending on how many Israel allows in.

That is well short of the 600 trucks a day that the U.S. Agency for International Developmentsays is required to address the threat of famine, even when adding the roughly 4,200 trucks of food aid - about 190 a day - that Israeli officials say have entered Gaza since the beginning of the Rafah assault on May 7.

Before the war began on Oct. 7, when Palestinian group Hamas attacked southern Israel, an average of 500 aid and commercial trucks entered Gaza each day carrying all the goods needed in the enclave from food and medical supplies to farming equipment, according to U.N. figures.

The average number since then is below 140 trucks a day, according to a Reuters tally of Israeli military statistics, even as Israel has laid waste to the enclave in it mission to eradicate Hamas, sending aid needs through the roof.

The food coming in is also expensive, and scant replacement for international aid that has already been paid for by donor countries and organizations, said four aid workers involved in coordinating deliveries to Gaza. They requested anonymity to speak freely about sensitive matters.

Three Gazan residents interviewed said they had seen Hebrew-labelled produce in markets, including watermelons from an Israeli settlement, but that it was often being sold at prices too high for cash-strapped and displaced families.

"I bought two eggs for 16 shekels ($5), just because my kid, three years old, cried for eggs," said Abed Abu Mustafa, a father-of-five in Gaza City.

"Normally I could have bought 30 eggs for less."

VETTED BY ISRAELI MILITARY

Israel launched its assault on Rafah on May 7, defying warnings from its closest ally the United States that the offensive would cause more civilian casualties and from aid agencies who said it could upend efforts to deliver food to Gazans.

A week later, said Abu Ramadan of the Chamber of Commerce, the Israeli military began contacting traders in Gaza saying they could resume taking deliveries of food from Israel and the West Bank.

Under the arrangement, all suppliers and goods have to be vetted by the Israeli military, according to Wassim Al-Jaabari, head of the West Bank food and industry union.

The Gaza distributors meet the trucks sent by suppliers at the Kerem Shalom crossing on Gaza's southern border where the military examines the goods before allowing the distributors to take them into the enclave, the two Palestinian officials said.

A copy of a COGAT list seen by Reuters showed that on May 22, 127 trucks carrying watermelons, lemons, eggs and milk as well as spices, rice, pasta, sugar and other items had been ordered by Gazan distributors. The list showed that most of the supplies came from the West Bank, though Reuters couldn't determine if that was representative of deliveries more broadly.

Jaabari and Abu Ramadan said no free goods or charitable donations were allowed in from the West Bank or Israel, only products for sale.

None of the five interviewed businessmen involved in the trade would disclose exactly what they charge for a full shipment, but said their prices were what it normally cost to sell in the West Bank. Transport prices, however, push the cost up as trucks often have to spend a long time on the road near Kerem Shalom waiting for inspection and are sometimes ransacked by Israelis protesting the entry of goods to Gaza, they said.

Two distributors inside Gaza declined to say how much they bought and sold goods for. They pay the West Bank suppliers by bank transfer and take cash from sellers in local markets.

The goods have also been distributed unevenly, with few of them making it to northern Gaza where fears of famine are most acute.

"There is plenty of flour here but little else," lamented Abu Mustafa, the father-of-five in Gaza City. "And whatever else there is, most people can't afford."

Reuters

WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Biden allows Ukraine limited use of US arms to strike inside Russia, say US officials

President Joe Biden quietly has authorized Kyiv to launch U.S.-supplied weapons at military targets inside Russia that are supporting an offensive against the northeastern Ukrainian city of Kharkiv, four U.S. officials said on Thursday.

The decision marks a policy shift by Biden, who had steadfastly refused to allow Ukraine to use American weaponry for strikes inside Russia.

Russia's embassy in Washington and Russia's mission to the United Nations in New York did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The U.S. officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Biden's decision applies only to targets inside Russia near the border with the Kharkiv region, where an offensive launched by Moscow on May 10 has overrun some villages.

"The President recently directed his team to ensure that Ukraine is able to use U.S.-supplied weapons for counter-fire purposes in the Kharkiv region so Ukraine can hit back against Russian forces that are attacking them or preparing to attack them," said one U.S. official.

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Russia is building up forces near the northern part of the region, but it lacks the troop numbers to stage a major push, Ukraine's top commander said on Thursday.

Kharkiv, Ukraine's second largest city, is 19 miles (30 km) from the border with Russia.

It is the second time this year that Biden has quietly relaxed his policy on weapons supplies for Ukraine, bending to calls to send long-range missiles known as ATACMS to Kyiv.

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"The Biden administration has come a long way from their hypersensitivity to and misunderstanding of the risk of escalation," said Alexander Vindman, a retired Army lieutenant colonel and former director for European affairs at the White House National Security Council under the Trump administration.

He applauded the shift in Biden's policy, which he said "unties Ukraine's hands."

"Of course it's the right move," Vindman said.

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The U.S. is the biggest supplier of weapons to Ukraine in its battle against the full-scale invasion launched by Russian President Vladimir Putin in February 2022.

The officials said that U.S. policy would continue to prohibit the Ukrainian military from using ATACMS, which have a range of up to 186 miles (300 km), and other long-range U.S.-supplied weapons for deep strikes inside Russia.

Biden's decision also does not mean the U.S. now approves of drone attacks that Ukraine has been launching against Russian petroleum facilities, they said.

Some NATO allies and U.S. lawmakers have been calling on Biden to relax the restriction on U.S. weapons to allow Ukraine to strike missile launchers and other military sites inside Russia that are backing Moscow's drive toward Kharkiv.

Russia jetfighters flying inside Russia out of reach of Ukrainian air defenses have been supporting the offensive by loosing highly precise glide bombs at Ukrainian defense lines and into Kharkiv, where they have caused numerous civilian casualties.

Putin on Tuesday warned NATO membersagainst allowing Ukraine to fire their weapons into Russia and he raised anew a risk of nuclear war.

Some experts dismissed his remarks as bluster. They noted that Putin has failed to act on similar threats in the past and already has committed the bulk of his conventional forces to Europe's biggest land war since World War Two.

"I don't think we can or should be bullied by Vladimir Putin," said U.S. Representative Gerry Connolly, a Democratic member of the House of Representatives Foreign Affairs Committee. "Is he really willing to risk nuclear war and a conflict with NATO?"

Connolly co-signed a May 20 letter with Representative Michael Turner, the Republican chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, and other lawmakers urging the Biden administration to allow Ukraine to use U.S. weapons to hit strategic targets inside Russia.

For some time, critics have urged NATO allies to relax restrictions on use of their weapons against military targets inside Russia. Those voices have grown within the alliance since Russia launched the Kharkiv offensive.

Countries that have called for relaxing restrictions or done so for their own arms sent to Ukraine include Britain, the Netherlands, Sweden, the Baltic states, Finland, Denmark, Germany and France.

Biden faced the potentially embarrassing prospect that as he hosts a NATO summit in July, Russian forces would be advancing on Kharkiv and in Ukraine's east as the alliance marks its 75th anniversary, analysts said.

** Life on Ukraine’s front line: ‘Worse than hell’ as Russia advances

The artillery fire begins just before dawn. A soldier steps into a darkened trench and lights a cigarette, carefully cupping the flame with his free hand. A boom and crackle of outgoing fire sound in the distance.

Viktor, the infantryman, ducks his head under a canopy of camouflage netting and looks up at the brightening sky. The incessant buzz of a drone sounds overhead, moving a dozen meters from one end of the trench to linger just above him.

Viktor swallows. A moment later, the buzzing sound moves on.

“One of ours,” the 37-year-old soldier says, bringing the cigarette back up to his lips.

The sun finally rises and the noise of war picks up. For weeks, Viktor has barely slept as Russian drones and artillery continually target his position. During the day, he watches for any attempts by Russian troops to cross a minefield that separates the two sides. At night, he picks up a shovel to dig and fortify his trench.

“They’re constantly firing, constantly probing,” he says. “We have to survive somehow and we have to hold the line.”

It is the start of another draining day on Ukraine’s eastern front line. Monitoring his scratchy radio, Viktor will try to move as little as possible in a trench less than 800 meters from where Russian soldiers are amassed. For seven months, Viktor’s unit has held this sector of the front, repelling a relentless onslaught of Russian assaults.

Now in the third year of full-scale war, Ukraine’s top military leaders openly admit that the battlefield situation on the eastern front has deteriorated. Two years of war have sapped Ukraine’s ammunition and manpower, while the country’s failed counter-offensive last year sank morale.

As Reuters traveled along the eastern stretch of Ukraine’s 1,000-kilometer front line in April, soldiers in infantry, artillery and drone units all expressed exhaustion. They spoke of an acute shortage of ammunition and an urgent need to replenish troops. A new push by Moscow earlier this month near Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, is likely to further divert precious ammunition and personnel from other sections of the front, stretching Kyiv’s military thin at a critical moment in the war.

Though Congress finally greenlit a long-delayed $60 billion U.S. military package in April, analysts say that a severe worldwide shortage of artillery shells means Ukraine will likely be outgunned by Russia for the remainder of the year as Kyiv’s allies ramp up production. Reuters could not independently establish how much of the new U.S. weaponry has made it to the front line. On a visit this month to Kyiv, Secretary of State Antony Blinken assured Ukraine that the delayed aid was “now on the way” and some had “already arrived.”

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said recently there were no reports of artillery shortages. But in an interview last week with Reuters, he called on Western allies to speed up aid, saying every decision they’ve made on military support for Ukraine has been “late by around one year.”

With the possibility of Donald Trump, who has questioned American military aid to Ukraine, returning to the presidency later this year, many Ukrainians fear the continued support of their most powerful ally hangs in the balance.

Russia, meanwhile, has continued to batter Ukraine with seemingly endless resources.

President Vladimir Putin, riding high as he begins his fifth term, has redoubled his war effort. In 2014, Russian-backed separatists staged a battle to control the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine. Since 2022, Putin has made clear his aims to annex the entirety of the area, known as Donbas. To that end, Russian forces have made steady advances in recent months. In February, they captured the eastern city of Avdiivka.

Now, Russia is trying to seize Chasiv Yar, a strategic hilltop city that, if captured, would allow its troops to more easily advance toward the remaining cities of the Donetsk region. Russia’s recent incursions in Kharkiv have distracted the world’s attention from the heavy battles being waged in the Donetsk region, Zelenskiy told Reuters.

The Ukrainian armed forces and the Russian defense ministry did not respond to questions for this story.

Fighting to hold the line

In recent months, Russian forces have made modest but steady gains along Ukraine’s eastern front.

Before Russia launched its full-scale invasion two years ago, Viktor, the infantryman, was working as a window framer outside of Uman, a city in central Ukraine. His wife had just given birth to a baby daughter. They lived with his parents in his childhood home built on a small hill overlooking verdant forests and fields that changed color with the seasons. (Like all of the Ukrainians profiled in this report, Viktor asked to be identified by his first name only, in keeping with military protocol.)

Viktor received his mobilization notice four months after the beginning of the war. He was quickly sent to an area in northern Ukraine that borders Russia to dig trenches and fortifications. Later, he was transferred to Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine, where mercenaries from Russia’s Wagner group were fighting to capture the city. Last September, Viktor was handed a Browning machine gun and taught how to clean and maintain the weapon. A week later, he was transferred to the front in Donetsk without having fired a single practice round.

When Viktor’s infantry unit first arrived here, thickets of oak and birch trees lined the grassy fields. There were still birds in the trees then and the leaves were just starting to change color. The soldiers dug trenches into the tough black soil but had no time to cover them with wooden planks before the Russian bombardment started. Through winter, the Russians’ near-constant shelling reduced the trees and fields to ashes, leaving only a tangle of charred stumps.

In winter, temperatures in Viktor’s trench fell as low as minus 26 degrees Celsius. On warmer days, shin-high water pooled at the bottom of the canal, mixing with the earth to turn into slushy mud, soaking everything. All the while, Russian drones flew overhead, hovering above the open trench and dropping grenades.

At the beginning of this year, Russian forces attempted yet another assault, driving an armored personnel carrier into a field just meters from Viktor’s position. He fired at the vehicle with his machine gun and diverted it to a minefield, where it detonated a mine and exploded.

Several of the Russian soldiers died in their vehicle, say Viktor and his commander. Others survived with serious injuries and tried to crawl through the minefield back toward the Russian positions. One of them, a former convict from Russia’s Buryatia region, was taken prisoner, Viktor says. Immediately afterward, Russian attacks on Viktor’s position intensified.

“So of course the Russians were angry. They lost equipment, lost people, so of course they started shelling with everything they have,” Viktor says.

In the heat of battle, all you can do is pray, he says. Around his neck, Viktor wears silver medallions of the Virgin Mary and the crucifix. But when the situation is truly dire, he will pray to every God he knows.

After Russia’s failed assault, their drones started dropping gas canisters into Viktor’s trench. A colorless, odorless gas would quickly fill the trench as Viktor and his partner fumbled in the dark for their gas masks. Coughing and sputtering, Viktor would crawl into a hole dug into the side of the trench just tall enough for him to crouch in and grab his phone. There, using candlelight, he would flick through photos and videos of his now two-year-old daughter on his phone.

The Ukrainian military says Russia has ramped up its use of riot-control chemical agents to clear trenches on the front line. The U.S. State Department says Russia is deploying a choking agent called chloropicrinagainst Ukrainian troops, in violation of the international chemical weapons ban. The U.S. allegations were unfounded, the Russian foreign ministry said this month.

When spring finally came, nothing flowered. All Viktor sees now are the outlines of blackened tree trunks on the horizon.

His exhaustion is palpable – the result of months spent holding the line against an enemy with seemingly endless manpower and weaponry. Death and injury are constant and every day is a reminder of the asymmetry of the war.

A declassified U.S. intelligence report in December assessed that Russia had lost as much as 90% of the personnel it had at the start of the 2022 invasion, with 315,000 soldiers killed or injured. Despite the losses, Russia is still estimated to have almost 500,000 servicemen in Ukraine, according to Ukraine’s military intelligence agency, and has continued to replenish its troops, recruiting heavily from prisons and from the general public. Ukrainian officials say Russia is planning to add another 300,000 soldiers in time for its summer offensive.

Russia’s new defense minister said this month there were no plans for a new mass call-up of troops. Russian officials also say Western estimates of Russian losses are inaccurate.

Zelenskiy recently signed off on a long-debated mobilization law to bolster Ukraine’s armed forces, which number around 800,000. The law, passed in April, lowers the draft age to 25 from 27. The government hasn’t said how many new conscripts the law would yield, and how soon they can reinforce the troops already on the front line.

“It’s not like how it looks on a map, with all these pretty lines and arrows,” Viktor says. “I see my friends, what’s happened to them, what we’re fighting. It’s hell. It’s worse than hell.”

In February, the constant Russian assaults, sleep deprivation, and fear finally got to Viktor. He woke up one morning frozen with terror, physically unable to go to his position.

“I couldn't calm myself down,” he says. “Not even that I didn’t want to go, but I couldn’t go. I was physically and mentally tired.”

Viktor was paralyzed by anxiety. What if he failed to do his job properly, what if something went wrong with his gun, what if he let down his comrades, whom he calls his “brothers” and considers his second family?

He shared his concerns with his company commander. Despite a severe shortage of soldiers on the front, the commander gave Viktor a few days of rest and time to talk with a psychologist. That short reprieve saved him and helped reframe his fear of death.

The face of war

Soldiers injured on the front lines are taken to medical stabilization points for treatment.

In the past, he used to think of death as a distant possibility. “But in a war, you’re completely unprotected,” he says. “Death can come at any moment. I’m starting to get used to the idea of death … that it can happen, and you can’t escape it.”

“The psychologist said that a person who has faith understands that in death the spirit leaves the body and only a shell remains on earth.”

Viktor’s ideas are blurrier when it comes to what follows death, but he knows, with certainty, that there is no salvation for the Russian soldiers who marched into Ukraine.

“I think they’re churning in hell,” he says.

Viktor’s eyes suddenly flick up. The whistle of incoming artillery makes him duck for cover.

“Get in the hole!” he yells, his voice drowned out by a shattering boom as he flattens himself against the dirt floor of the trench. Another whistle, this time closer, then a sound of impact, of metal meeting earth. The dirt walls of the trench vibrate. Then all is quiet for some time.

A little while later, the exhausted voice of a Ukrainian soldier crackles over the radio, asking for help. The soldier’s position, a few hundred meters away from Viktor’s trench, has been hit by what appear to be Russian suicide drones, which smash into their targets laden with explosives.

“One 200, three 300s,” the soldier says over the radio, using military code: one dead and three wounded.

“What are my instructions?” he asks, panting slightly. The soldier is ordered to hold his position and not attempt to cross the minefield.

“Plus plus,” he sighs, acknowledging the order.

A few minutes later, the same soldier’s voice returns to the radio.

“What are my instructions?” he asks again, audibly out of breath.

“He’s concussed,” Viktor says, noting the soldier’s confusion and slurred speech, signs of possible head trauma.

He slumps against the white sandbags that line the walls of his trench and takes off his helmet. “They’re not going to be able to rescue them until dark.”

Over the radio, the injured soldiers are told to wait until nightfall – more than eight hours – for a medevac team to extract them. From there they could be taken to a stabilization point, a medical facility close to the front line where wounded soldiers receive emergency aid. The commander says another group of men will be transported to hold the position at the same time.

“Do not leave your post,” he tells the soldier on the radio, instructing him to drink water and stay awake.

Several more explosions are heard from the injured men’s position.

“They’re trying to finish them off,” Viktor says, as the radio crackles again with the voice of the soldier. Several more Russian drones are swooping on their position and dropping munitions.

Viktor takes another drag of his cigarette. He’s lost count of the soldiers he’s seen injured or killed. There was a cheerful soldier in his twenties he shared a trench with last fall. He was killed in a heavy mortar attack while Viktor was away from the position for a few days of rest.

Asked for the young soldier’s name, Viktor hesitates and squeezes his eyes shut.

“I can’t even remember,” he says after a pause. “I can’t even remember where he was from.”

More than anything, Viktor wishes he could go home, but he says the chances of another soldier replacing him soon at his front-line position are slim.

The final mobilization law passed in April did not include a provision in an earlier version that would have rotated out soldiers who had already served 36 months of duty. Ukraine’s defense ministry is now considering a new law that will address demobilization.

Even with the mobilization push, many young Ukrainian men do not want to be sent to challenging front-line trenches like Viktor’s, soldiers and officers in his brigade say.

“No one will trade with us,” Viktor says. “Who would want to come here?”

So, he stands guard at his Browning, listening and watching. For hours, the radio crackles on as the injured soldiers wait for the skies to darken. Viktor, ever alert in his trench, looks up at the midafternoon sky. A deeper buzzing sound can be heard approaching, a sound that resembles a larger drone carrying a heavier payload. The sound comes closer, then hovers, suspended above the trench.

Viktor strains to hear against the wind. The buzzing moves away, towards the Russian position.

“Ours,” he says.

‘Nobody’s safe’

A few dozen kilometers away in a demolished village in the southern sector of Donetsk region, another soldier stares at a bank of computer monitors in the dark basement of a command observation point. Roman, a 38-year old commander of a fire support platoon, squints at the screens, a cherry-flavored cigarette hanging from the corner of his mouth. On one screen is a grid of thermal images, including one showing a tree line in his sector of the Donetsk front.

There is no movement. But Roman knows there are Russian dugouts under the trees. He leans back in his leather armchair and scratches behind the ears of his dog, Marcel, a mixed breed he found in the destroyed village. Another soldier, one of the men in Roman’s drone unit, coughs in his sleep as he shifts on an army cot set up in the room.

Drones have been used in wars before, but their use has exploded in the war in Ukraine. Russian and Ukrainian forces are now racing to develop and deploy a variety of unmanned aerial vehicles, or UAVs, that can carry out precision attacks, destroying everything from dugouts to multi-million dollar tanks.

Ukrainian soldiers and commanders say aerial vehicles initially gave them an edge over Russia. They now say Moscow is far outpacing their ability to produce them, in particular the lower-cost first-person view drones, or FPVs, which can be laden with explosives and crashed into targets.

Like thousands of other Ukrainians, Roman volunteered to fight in 2022. At the time of Russia’s full-scale invasion, he had been living in Marseille, after almost eight years working and living abroad. He grew up in a working-class village outside of Kyiv with a single mother and left Ukraine to search for a better life. In Marseille, he met his French wife, opened a small pizza restaurant with friends, and spent his free time walking his dog and swimming in the brisk waters of the ocean.

“I was really living my dream, it was everything I wanted after struggling for so long,” he says.

When war broke out, his wife and mother begged him not to return to Ukraine. But Roman felt he wouldn’t be able to look himself in the mirror if he didn’t volunteer. He quickly joined up with Ukraine’s police task force, which has fighting units, first heading to the southern Ukrainian cities of Mykolaiv and Kherson before moving to Bakhmut in Donbas.

In December of 2022, Roman formally joined the military. Last year, he was assigned to accompany one of Ukraine’s deadliest snipers, Vasya, who has more than 440 kills, according to the press officer of Roman’s brigade. Vasya has been given the prestigious “Hero of Ukraine” title, a presidential award usually bestowed posthumously, although he is still alive. Roman, who has combat lifesaving training, was tasked with protecting Vasya and keeping him alive as they stalked Russian soldiers in the thick of the Kreminna Forest.

In his new role, Roman oversees 32 soldiers in the 58th Motorized Brigade who are fanned out across mortar and drone positions in the Donetsk region.

Roman’s war is now waged almost entirely on monitors.

“It looks like a fucking video game,” he says, toggling between the different windows on his screen.

A few kilometers closer to the front, three soldiers in Roman’s unit sit in a cramped dugout, waiting for Roman’s orders to launch the drone. Denys, a drone pilot and youngest of Roman’s platoon at 21, sits in the corner vaping as another soldier teases him for being too green and stupid.

“He’s senile, don’t listen to him,” Denys says, pointing to the older soldier, who is in his 30s. “They’re so desperate for fighters they’re recruiting from homes for the elderly.”

The two soldiers banter on. Serhii, their explosives expert, listens with a smile. Unlike artillery and other longer-range drone teams, units like theirs need to sit closer to Russian positions because their reconnaissance drones normally have a shorter range. Day and night the soldiers sit underground, waiting for an order to fly the DJI Mavic, a quadcopter that they use to surveil the sector and drop bombs on Russian targets.

Roman’s voice comes over the speaker of Denys’ phone and the men spring into action. Denys balances the drone controller on one leg, while Serhii attaches a freshly charged battery to the Mavic.

Once in the air, the drone sweeps over a field pockmarked by artillery rounds. The soldiers watch its video feed on a small screen: It ascends higher as it flies over two Russian heavy vehicles destroyed by mines. On the horizon, a line of trees appears.

“Denyska, climb higher, you’re flying for reconnaissance,” Roman can be heard telling his drone pilot.

“I’m climbing,” Denys says.

“Higher. Fly sideways,” Roman orders.

As the tree line comes closer, Denys scans for movement on a small monitor.

“No, there’s nothing,” he says.

“Okay, come back, I’ll watch everything on streams,” Roman says, referring to the live feeds from other reconnaissance drones, as he searches for targets.

The next day, one of the reconnaissance flights spots a Russian soldier standing under a thick cover of trees.

“He doesn’t see the drone so he thinks he’s safe,” Roman says in his bunker, looking at the Russian man in fatigues on his screen. “But nobody’s safe.”

Mouth still wet from brushing his teeth, the Russian soldier squints as he tries to make out the soft whirring sound. He turns to say something to his partner, then spots the Ukrainian drone. He dives into a hole under the trees, just as Denys drops a homemade bomb right on top of it.

“Fucking great! Good boy!” Roman exclaims, staring at a plume of dust and smoke rising from the hole.

Denys asks Roman to repeat the praise.

“I told you you're great, do you need anything else?” Roman jokes.

Leaning back in his armchair, Roman taps the tip of an unlit cigarette on the back of the pack. Marcel, the dog, trots over to him to lean against his legs.

“The idea is – let them be scared. We want them to sit in their holes and not even pop their heads up. If any time you see movement you throw something at them, you throw FPV, you fly a drone, you hit them with artillery, you shoot them with a machine gun, they’ll be scared even to go to the toilet,” says Roman.

Drone race

Ukrainian and Russian forces are racing to develop and produce unmanned aerial vehicles, which can target everything from trenches to state-of-the art equipment on the battlefield.

One of the most potent weapons in the war has been FPV drones. They have made it almost impossible for both Ukrainian and Russian troops to move on the battlefield without being spotted from above. These drones, which carry explosives, can be guided to a target kilometers away, and cost as little as $500 to produce. Russia, like Ukraine, aggressively targets soldiers’ positions and equipment with FPVs. Doctors and staff working at medical stabilization points in Donbas now say most of the battlefield injuries they treat are from such drones.

There are no reliable estimates of how many FPV drones Russia is able to manufacture every month. Ukraine plans to produce a million FPVs this year, but soldiers and commanders in drone units say they need to double or triple this number if they hope to keep up with Russian troops.

To more quickly supply Roman’s brigade with drones, former jewelers and mechanics sit in a village house near the front line, soldering parts for FPVs that can immediately be deployed. Brigades also collect downed Russian drones, which are then taken apart and examined by army engineers who are desperate to keep up with the pace of development on the Russian side.

Roman’s phone rings and he picks up, switching to French. His wife is calling from Marseille to ask about Marcel the dog and the vaccinations he will need for a short leave that Roman is planning to France. The couple married just before Roman enlisted to fight, and in his final week in France he drew up a will to make sure she would be taken care of if he died at war.

Like many Ukrainians, one of his best friends from childhood was killed in the fighting two years ago. Afterward, Roman had the words “hate” and “revenge” tattooed above his knuckles, a reminder of the emotions that keep him fighting.

But drone warfare, unlike the close-quarter fighting he conducted in the forests, does not always provide the gratification he seeks. Video clips of the bomb drops, often edited by the soldiers themselves with a hip-hop soundtrack and shared on social media, have an artificial, almost unreal quality about them.

“If I see someone is dead, if we’ve killed someone, I have zero moral satisfaction, it’s just like a video game,” Roman says. Often, he wonders what will actually satisfy the anger and sadness that he feels.

“So your friend is gone. How many invaders do you have to kill to avenge him? 10? 100? 1,000? You’re not going to get your friend back,” he says.

Soldiers in Ukraine clearly delineate life before and after the war.

Even Roman, who has a background in martial arts and easily fits his new role of commander, never dreamed of becoming a soldier. A look at his social media photos from just a few years ago reveals a different man: carefree and smiling on a messenger bike, eating pizza with his friends, posing in a rice paddy in Bali.

Another soldier describes that sense of disconnect as missing the person you once were and not recognizing the new person you’ve become. When there’s a lull in his work, Roman lingers on such thoughts.

“My wife is constantly asking, ‘When is it going to be over?’ And I say I don’t have a fucking answer,” he says. At first, he thought he might be away from home for a year or two. Now, he thinks the war will continue for at least a few more years.

Though he’s not interested in demobilizing and leaving his men behind, Roman agrees that Ukraine needs a way to help fighters rest. Some of Ukraine’s most motivated men and women were the first to volunteer in 2022. Now, so many of them are dead, injured, or exhausted. It’s not enough just to draft more people to take their place, Roman says; they need to be properly prepared and trained.

“You can’t keep the same people constantly on the front line.”

But the decision of Ukrainians like him to continue fighting isn’t really a choice, he says. It’s a question of life or death for his people and his country. And if Russia prevails in Ukraine, he’s convinced no one in Europe will be safe.

“For Europe and the whole world, we’re on the front lines defending it,” Roman says. “Because this motherfucker will never stop just in Ukraine,” he adds, referring to Putin. “If you let him get away with it, he’s not going to stop over here.”

Sitting in the windowless basement in front of the monitors, Roman loses track of time. Outside, above the destroyed rooftops of village houses, the night sky is full of stars.

III

‘It’s endless’

In an area north of Roman’s command center, artillery units defending Ukraine’s eastern front waited for new deliveries of ammunition to arrive.

Ukraine’s shortage of artillery shells has become a decisive factor in its struggle to repel Russian advances. Russia’s new offensive outside of Kharkiv in northeastern Ukraine is likely to put further strain along the eastern front, where artillery units have been carefully prioritizing targets and rationing shells. In an April interview, Zelenskiy said that Russia was firing shells at a ratio of 10 to one to those of Ukraine.

One of Russia’s targets is Kupiansk, a northeastern city in the Kharkiv region that was captured by Russia in early 2022 and retaken by Ukrainians later that year. Today, Russian forces are about 10 kilometers away. Oleksii, a soldier in an artillery unit in the 57th Motorized Brigade, is preparing to return to his position in the city after spending a few days resting in a nearby village house.

Oleksii, 27, volunteered to fight five years ago after Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea. Since then, the town in the Zaporizhzhia region where he grew up has been reduced to rubble. His comrades are all motivated and want to fight, he says, but their biggest concern is the acute shortage of shells.

“When you work and when you have enough shells, you can work and you understand you are destroying the enemy,” Oleksii says. In 2022, one artillery installation could fire 40, up to 100 shells a day. Now, the number has been reduced to two or three shells a day, maybe a dozen on a busy day, he says.

In February, Zelenskiy said Ukraine had received just 30% of the one million shells the European Union promised to deliver by March. The European Commission did not respond to questions about the shell delivery.

By the time Oleksii arrives at one of the brigade’s artillery positions, a spring storm has started. Rain is falling and thunder cracks overhead. The hulking 2S1 Gvozdika, a self-propelled howitzer, sits hidden under a cluster of branches and khaki netting, while soldiers take shelter in a dugout nearby.

The unit commander, a slim man with dark hair named Yurii, boils water on a camping stove as his men wait for an order to fire on a column of Russian infantry.

Stirring a cup of tea, one of the soldiers says the months-long shell shortages have made Ukrainian forces on the front lines exceedingly vulnerable. Without shells, artillery units like theirs are unable to cover for infantry on the front lines.

“If the Americans had passed the package sooner, Russians wouldn’t have gotten so close to Chasiv Yar,” says Yurii, the 53-year-old commander. “They wouldn’t have taken so many villages and we wouldn’t have to fight to take back these villages.”

Russians have factories across their country where they can produce all manner of weapons and ammunition, Yurii says, while Ukraine is largely reliant on the goodwill of Europe and the United States.

“Russians can shoot their artillery like it’s a machine gun,” the commander says. “It’s endless.”

As the wind picks up outside, the men argue over the U.S. election in November and what Trump’s possible return would mean for the war.

“But he won’t win!” exclaims one of the soldiers.

“Even if he did, he’ll still have to help Ukraine,” another says. “When he’s president he won’t be able to ignore the opinions of his people.”

Trump campaign spokesman Steven Cheung told Reuters that the former president would make negotiating an end to the war “a top priority” in a second term, and that European nations need to pay “more of the cost of the conflict.”

The problem, Yurii says, is that even after all of the horrors of the past two years of war, there are still so many people in Europe and the U.S. who do not accept all that Putin and the Russian military are capable of.

The horrific images of civilians slaughtered in Bucha after its occupation, the pulverized cities of Mariupol and Bakhmut. The tens of thousands killed, the endless portraits of dead Ukrainian soldiers shared on Facebook and Instagram, the never-ending funeral processions for fathers and brothers, the videos of children draped over their coffins.

“It’s not possible, I guess, just by looking at the photos” to comprehend the horrors of this war, Yurii says.

But Oleksii, the soldier in the artillery unit, says Ukrainians have little choice but to keep fighting.

“For our entire history we’ve been fighting,” he says, rubbing the dust out of his eyes.

The men fall quiet. They sit side by side on narrow military cots, taking sips from their cups. Suddenly, the radio comes alive with an order. The soldiers dash out of their dugout and prepare to fire.

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

‘Paranoid’ Zelensky lashing out at US – FT

Vladimir Zelensky has instructed Ukrainian officials to publicly criticize US President Joe Biden for not attending the upcoming “peace summit” in Switzerland, the Financial Times has reported, citing documents from Kiev.

Neither Biden nor his VP Kamala Harris is scheduled to attend the gathering in Lucerne, where Kiev hopes to win non-Western countries to its “peace formula” for resolving the conflict with Russia. 

According to FT, the Ukrainian leader specifically instructed MPs and officials in a May 26 memo to “pile public pressure” on Biden, as well as Chinese President Xi Jinping, for not attending the summit.

“It is unlikely that the world will understand President Biden and President Xi if they do not join in the realization of such undeniably just goals and [in] bringing peace closer,” said the memo, as quoted by the outlet.

While China has shown understanding for Russia in the conflict, the US has been one of Ukraine’s most prominent supporters. According to FT, however, there have been “many points of friction” between the leadership in Kiev and Washington lately, as Russian troops have continued to advance on the battlefield. 

Zelensky recently sacked several government and military officials that the US was “working closely” with, without much of an explanation. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s recent visit to Kiev, during which he lectured Zelensky on corruption and played rock music on stage at a club, also reportedly rubbed the Ukrainian leadership the wrong way.

One senior Kiev official described the feeling in Zelensky’s office as “paranoia” and said the Ukrainian leader had “deep anxiety” about both the military situation and the peace summit, which is scheduled for mid-June in Lucerne.

Another Ukrainian official told FT that Zelensky has become more “emotional and nervous”over the situation at the front, convinced that the US is eager to start talks with Russia because Washington wants the conflict “to go away before the [US] election.” Polls currently show Biden losing support as he faces a rematch with former US President Donald Trump in November.

Zelensky is “very irritated” with Biden, said one member of his government, noting that many Ukrainian officials are worried about Kiev “openly provoking” the White House.

“What do you say in America? Do not bite the hand that feeds you,”a fourth Ukrainian government official told FT.

Zelensky has infuriated Washington before. His social media rant last July, after NATO did not formally invite Ukraine to join, reportedly almost causeda backlash from the White House. In the end, however, the US and its allies continued to fund Kiev’s war effort.

Reuters/RT

For the deposed Kano Emir, Aminu Bayero, it was not a matter of if but when. The moment the Supreme Court upheld Governor Abba Yusuf's election in January, Bayero knew the governor would need the throne to pay his debt. 

During the campaign, the governor promised that if he were elected, he would revoke the sharing of the Kano Municipal Emirate between two Bayeros among the four new emirs and restore the throne’s singular pre-eminence.

Of course, he won. But before the ruling of the Supreme Court in January affirming his election, two lower courts had ruled in favour of the APC candidate, increasing the probability that Yusuf might not get it.

But Yusuf defied the trend and got it. Since then, Aminu Ado Bayero has taken his case to virtually all notable traditional rulers in the country, begging them to beg President Bola Tinubu to save him. His last visit was to the Awujale of Ijebuland, Oba Sikuru Adetona. Neither the Awujale, the Sultan, nor any other traditional rulers he had visited could help.

The throne would be used to pay a debt foretold.

Nearly there 

But the re-instated Emir of Kano, Sanusi Lamido Sanusi, is not sitting pretty yet. Not even one side of his royal buttocks is hugging the throne in the main palace yet. He’s currently in a holding room, besieged by orders and counter-court orders about what should happen next.

A young man genuinely surprised by the drama in Kano asked what the fuss was about. Why should the country almost come to grief over who of two cousins – with ties and friendships that run deep – would become the emir? It’s a fair point. 

There was a time in this country when the business of chiefs, obas, emirs—or any traditional rulers, by whatever description or name—was the concern of local governments.

How they were appointed, kept or removed was local. Their relevance or longevity depended mainly on how their communities perceived their compliance with the customs and traditions. 

Burden of a legacy 

Colonial rule exploited and undermined the system. However, the more significant damage was inflicted by the long years of military rule, which emasculated the states and local governments through a centralised system of administration that left the units bereft. Successive politicians have only paid lip service to federalism.

After the civil war and the national trauma that followed it, the military recruited traditional rulers, amongst others, to help heal the country and deepen their own legitimacy. They courted the institutions, propped them up, and invested them with responsibilities that made them more prestigious, prominent, and powerful.

A number of soldiers, especially from the North, where the traditional institution had grown from colonial rule to become something of a vital centre of political and religious authority, soon took traditional titles to reinvent and perpetuate their control, complete with the feudal and anachronistic levers of power.

Game of Thrones pro-max

A young man born into a modern world of merit, innovation and competence is right to question the sense in a country that advertises itself as a republic but is still obsessing over a wayward, neo-medieval concept called monarchy. The only thing that imitates what is happening in Kano is the fantasy TV series, “Game of Thrones”, based on George R. R. Martin’s book, A Song of Ice and Fire.

But that’s precisely the point about the pathology of the monarchy. Throne rule may be extinct in France and parts of Europe where monarchs paid for feudalism with their heads hoisted on spikes by wild mobs or it may be seriously challenged in a few remaining bastions like Britain, but the drama, the complex themes of power, loyalty and betrayal, remains a reality of our daily existence. That’s why Kano obsesses.

Powers behind the throne 

Sanusi and Bayero fancy themselves as the centre of the drama. They’re not. Both men and their supporters are grist in a vast and complex power mill grinding through the heart of the politics of 2027 and beyond in the North. Whoever wins now will still yield the throne to pay a future debt.

It's not Sanusi v Bayero. Or some karmic payback either way. It’s the leader of the NNPP Rabiu Kwankwaso v Abdullahi Ganduje and a few key members of the Tinubu’s cabinet who want to lead the North in 2027. 

One insider described what is happening as a “skirmish”, insisting that the battle, which obviously consumed former Kaduna State Governor Nasir El-Rufai, is only just beginning.

Coming war

After President Muhammdu Buhari's catastrophic tenure and former Vice President Atiku Abubakar’s serial futile attempts at taking the presidency, the North has been asking itself if this is indeed the best it can offer. That soul-searching is at the heart of the jostling to produce credible leadership that can rally the region, if not for the next four years, then certainly for the next general election cycle.

In this coming battle, any potential contender who shows his hand early on may not be politically alive to tell the story. But that will not stop politicians from trying to succeed where El-Rufai was ambushed.

Kwankwaso is one such politician. With the victory at the governorship polls, he regained his political footing in Kano, the largest vote bank in the North-West, where his successor betrayed him. He has been trying, without much success, so far, to trash Ganduje, the chairman of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). 

What Kwankwaso may need to reinforce his grip as the potential pre-eminent political leader in the North, is to secure control of the Kano emirate. Whether given Sanusi’s own volatile history Kwankwaso would find him serviceable in this task is another matter. What is clear is that of the two devils, one is preferred.

Once the emirate is settled, Kwankwaso will return to the immediate task of worming his way into the ruling party. Why would he prefer the ruling party to the prospects of a mega-merger of PDP, LP and others? Because it’s a joke that offers no serious pathway to power, and those mooting the idea know it. Kwankwaso, too, knows it.

Why this skirmish matters 

But he also knows that the only thing more combustible than having FCT Minister Nyesom Wike and Rivers State Governor Simi Fubara in one room is having Kwankwaso and Ganduje in one room. The combatants, with the referee and spectators, are guaranteed a bloody ending. That’s why, after lining his political and monarchical ducks in a row, Kwankwaso's next stop is Abuja.

Ganduje knows that this is a fight for his political life. And even though forces around the president detest Ganduje, they are united on the matter of blocking any potential leader from the North who is currently outside Tinubu’s inner circle. There’s no guarantee they would succeed but they won’t fail for lack of effort.

As it was in the “Game of Thrones”, expect more surprises, more twists and turns, more convenient alliances, treachery and betrayals. The monarchy may be damaging itself either from within or from outside pressure, but the lessons it teaches about power, about its absolutism and ephemerality, remain for all who have eyes to see.

** Ishiekwene, Editor-In-Chief of LEADERSHIP, is the author of the new book Writing for Media and Monetising It.

An unforgiving industry means you have to plan that much more.

Restaurants that open within the first year have a high failure rate, and they're extremely risky investments. Truth be told, I didn't fully grasp why this was until I researched restaurants for a college assignment. 

I quickly learned that the restaurant industry is extremely challenging. A restaurant's success depends on more than its ability to prepare quality meals and serve them on location.

A restaurant's success is influenced by many factors, and many of them are not simply related to the food's amazing quality and freshness. I recently spoke with restaurateurs of successful restaurants, and they revealed some of their tips and tricks for opening successful restaurants.

Michael and Kwini Reed are the owners of two wildly successful restaurants "Poppy + Rose" and "Poppy + Seed" located in Los Angeles and Anaheim, CA. Michael Reed, the chef behind both restaurants' modern twists on various cuisine styles has over 20 years of experience in the industry.

Bernard James is a gourmet celebrity chef and 25-year culinary and restaurant industry veteran. Originally from Guyana, he has been preparing authentic gourmet Caribbean cuisine since adolescence and owns Taste of the Caribbean in Los Angeles.

My own experiences and these discussions have enabled me to highlight four factors that entrepreneurs should consider before opening a restaurant.

1. Location

Significant factors to consider when choosing the right location for your restaurant are your target customers, accessibility, visibility, competition in the area, and the size or space you require to properly serve your ideal customer base. 

Once you know your target audience, you can find the appropriate location for the demographic of people you intend to serve. Choosing the right location also requires consideration of accessibility and visibility. 

The majority of restaurant chains are located near areas with plenty of foot traffic or highways as their visibility and accessibility are greatly enhanced. You will also need to consider the local competition and the size and space of your desired restaurant location. 

Selecting the wrong restaurant location can kill your restaurant if you do not properly evaluate the competition. Avoid choosing a location that is near a successful competitor offering similar cuisine. When it comes to restaurant location, size matters. 

How a restaurant is run and the overall customer experience can be impacted by its size. Customers are less likely to stay and dine in an area that feels cramped. Choose a location that reflects the experience you want to give your customers.

2. Funding

The vast majority of restaurants are in a financial deficit at their inception. The expenses associated with location, equipment, staff, ingredients, and marketing will likely result in most restaurants having more expenses than income at the start. 

Some restaurateurs seek breathing room by utilizing available business loans or credit cards to cover their growing expenses, but this is a short-term fix. Given these circumstances, cash flow is imperative to successful restaurant operations as the primary goal is to turn a profit as quickly as possible. 

Having a clear insight into your restaurant's finances is important. You can start with a cash flow statement to determine how much money you make and spend each month. A cash flow forecast can be created once your cash flow has been determined. 

Using one, you will be able to forecast future sales based on the past months or year(s), as well as ongoing operating costs, such as salary, rent, food, and capital expenses, such as taxes. According to Kwini Reed of Poppy & Love and Poppy & Seed, maintaining a cash flow forecast is vital. 

"You need to consider cash flow when starting a restaurant. Moreover, you should establish a forecasting system to determine your requirements and create a budget that includes working capital, salary, food costs, and liquor costs. 

These types of things are going to be recurring expenses each month. You want to have at least 3-4 months of operational cash flow in the bank, but 6 months is ideal. Normally, in the restaurant world, it's only feasible to have 3 months of operational cash flow."

3. Marketing

Social media has become a great tool for restaurants to advertise their businesses since it enables restaurateurs to reach their desired customer base and audience. 

Whether you are paying for social media ads or setting up your own pages and marketing your business, you must focus on social media marketing. Featuring regular food content on your restaurant's social media pages will help to attract more customers. 

Your restaurant's social media pages are also a great way to communicate with guests, not only about opening hours and contact information, but also about menu additions, events, and promotions.

In discussing social media marking with Michael Reed of Poppy & Love and Poppy & Seed, he shared, "Social media puts a face to the name, essentially. It allows us to visually demonstrate our craft to our customer base and show them who we really are. 

It provides customers with the opportunity to showcase reviews during actual restaurant service, share honest feedback directly with business owners, and connect with us on a more personal level. 

The faster pace of social media, compared to traditional marketing, works well with restaurants who change their menu offerings frequently with the seasons, like Poppy & Seed, so we can inform customers in real-time."

4. Inimitable

You can make your restaurant hard to rival by offering a well-chosen menu and excellent customer service. It may seem obvious, but the menu is one of the most powerful tools you can use when opening a restaurant. 

If the above conditions are properly met, a well-crafted and priced menu can drastically increase restaurant profits and ensure longevity. In order to differentiate your unique culinary vision from your competitors, your menu must be carefully designed.

Chef Bernard James shares how he keeps his food unique in his restaurant, "Taste Of The Caribbean LA differs from other Caribbean restaurants in that we incorporate ingredients from various Caribbean countries into our recipes and dishes. We work meticulously to ensure everything at our restaurant is fresh and authentic to capture the essence of Caribbean culture and it is evident in our food."  

An establishment's success can depend on the quality of customer service it provides. Satisfied customers share their positive experiences via word-of-mouth or online, and this generates more revenue. Exceptional customer service should accompany a thoughtfully well-crafted menu.

Inc

One year after President Bola Tinubu came to office, investor excitement over his reforms has faded, with some saying they’ll reconsider their positions if Nigeria stabilizes its currency and enacts more change.

“We are likely to add to local currency bonds once FX volatility declines, but the timing of that remains up in the air,” said Kevin Daly, a portfolio manager at London-based Abrdn Investments Ltd. “It will require a combination of factors such as further foreign portfolio flows, and more importantly some de-dollarization as the central bank can’t be the sole provider of FX liquidity for the market,” he said.

Since succeeding Muhammadu Buhari in late May 2023, Tinubu has instituted reforms to woo investors and boost dollar liquidity. They include scrapping costly fuel subsidies, replacing central bank governor Godwin Emefiele with ex-Citibank executive Olayemi Cardoso, who has pledged a return to orthodox central banking, clearing a foreign-exchange backlog, and overhauling the country’s exchange-rate policies — effectively devaluing the naira.

While the initial steps enthused investors, increased dollar flows and led to a rally in the naira, that’s since dissipated.

Tellimer Ltd. data shows investor inflows into the foreign-exchange market declined by almost a fifth in April to a daily average of $200 million from a month earlier and were at $180 million in the first three weeks of May. The naira has lost almost 67% of its value against the dollar since June and fuel subsidies have been reintroduced after a public backlash over rising food and fuel costs.

Inflation in Nigeria Has Surged

The policy rate has lagged price growth since 2020

Other measures investors would like to see before they boost their investments is better returns.

“We have invested in Nigerian eurobonds, but not yet invested in the local currency bonds,” said Ayo Salami, chief investment officer at Emerging Markets Investment Management Ltd. “The local currency bonds are not yet attractive given that inflation at about 33.7% is still above the policy rate at 26.25%,” Salami said.

Another issue Nigeria needs to address is the repatriation of funds.

While Nigeria offers higher equity valuations and better yields, emerging and frontier market peers like South Africa, Egypt, Kenya, Turkey and Pakistan offer less repatriation risks and a more advanced policy course correction and higher credibility that policies will be sustained, Tellimer said.

“I think as long as we can be consistent and clear about policy direction, when it comes to monetary policy and the like, then I think you will see confidence return, then you will see liquidity return,” said Ladi Balogun, chief executive officer of Lagos-based FCMB Group. “That is when you will see international investors come back.”

Bloomberg

President Bola Tinubu has officially signed a bill reintroducing Nigeria’s old national anthem, "Nigeria, We Hail Thee," into law. This was announced by Senate President Godswill Akpabio during a joint session of the Senate and House of Representatives on Wednesday.

Akpabio stated that the president signed the bill on Wednesday morning. He also mentioned that Tinubu would launch the rendition of the old national anthem during the joint session of the National Assembly yesterday.

The anthem "Nigeria, We Hail Thee" had been replaced in 1978 by "Arise, O Compatriots."

However, Tajudeen Abbas, Speaker of the House of Representatives, noted that Tinubu would not deliver a "state of the nation" address as previously announced, explaining that yesterday (May 29) is not officially designated as Democracy Day. Abbas apologized for the earlier miscommunication.

The bill was swiftly passed by the House of Representatives on May 23, followed by the Senate's approval on Tuesday. Presenting the judiciary committee's report on the bill, Chairman Tahir Monguno said the committee disagreed with Attorney-General Lateef Fagbemi’s suggestion that the process to change the anthem should be subjected to a more extensive review.

During the public hearing, Fagbemi had argued that the decision to change the national anthem should not be made hastily but should involve a broader consultation process.