Nigeria is about to enter into a new phase in its history. Scarcity will soon become the word most commonly used by us starting from 2024.

We already have scarcity of cash in banks, foreign exchange scarcity, rice scarcity and job scarcity is about to kick in with several multinational companies voting with their feet. Procter & Gamble, P&G, being the latest to shut its gates and send Nigerian hopes of rapid industrialisation crashing at the dawn of Renewed Hope.

Unilever, formerly Lever Brothers Nigeria Limited, was the first company to establish large-scale manufacturing in Nigeria on April 11, 1923. A century after, the company, which is still expanding globally, diversifying and evolving into new areas of consumer products, has started winding down its business in Nigeria.

Scarcity of some of its products has started to show in supermarkets and open markets. Prices, subsequently, have skyrocketed of

VASELINE, LUX etc. We are lurching gradually back into 1984/85. Those old enough to remember, would recall that those were the years the term Essential Commodities, Essenco, entered our national vocabulary. People, mostly women, had to go on queues to buy ordinary bath soap, detergents, even milk for babies, sugar, sardine, etc.

Buhari’s soldiers were waiting for them. Women, including grandmothers were brutally whipped by Buhari’s young recruits in the most heartless manner imaginable. General Buhari was proud of the carnage too!!!

It has been necessary to remind those alive then and those too young to know that Buhari’s brutality resulted from acute scarcity of almost everything; and that we are closer to another round of inhuman treatment of citizens
than we think. Let me discuss them one at a time because of the ultimate implications.

ANOTHER ROUND OF CASH SCARCITY

“Banks ration cash as naira scarcity worsens.” Vanguard, December 12, 2023. Other Nigerians might have been surprised that cash scarcity has returned so soon.

VANGUARD’s Editorial staff were not. As far back as March this year, while the rest of the nation was reeling under
the assault of the first cash scarcity, we warned the nation that another round would occur any time soon. The nation is in it now.
Furthermore, this second round of cash scarcity will trigger several more in 2024.

Permit me not to elaborate now on why 2024 promises to be a year of cash scarcity – unless the FG and CBN rethink their strategies on monetary and fiscal policies. Right now, we are heading for another bleak Christmas and New Year.

FOREX SCARCITY AND THE DISASTERS AHEAD

“$792M TRAPPED FUNDS: Foreign airlines at breaking point, may exit Nigeria’s airspace.” Report, December 11, 2023. “Manufacturing s e c t o r bleeds as forex loss rises 400% to N466bn.”

Report, December 11, 2023. Try as the FG and CBN might, the present and the short term prospects for Nigeria are bleak.

Tinubu can be airborne 365 days in 2024; meet with Presidents and Prime ministers promising to help Nigeria. It will be in the national interest and his, if it is understood that not all politicians’ promises are ever redeemed. And, he is running around with a beggar’s bowl;

meeting other politicians like himself. The solution to our forex debacle is not outside but inside Nigeria. A nation lacking sufficient foreign exchange to drive the vital sectors of its economy has no business sending 422 or 1,141 delegates to COP28.

DIVESTMENT AND SCARCITY OF JOBS AND PRODUCTS “GSK, P&G:

Over 20,000 direct jobs lost to divestment, NECA cries out”. Re port, December 10, 2023.

My e x p e r i e n c e working in a manufacturing drug company, BOOTS COMPANY NIGERIA LTD, which was the darling of investors in the Stock Exchange in the 1970s; and with NORTH BREWERY LTD , Kano, proved beyond reasonable doubt that the closure of a manufacturing and marketing company results in more job losses than many people realise.

The loss of income by people is even more staggering. For instance, given Nigeria’s high dependency ratio, meaning one worker supports at least five jobless or non-working individuals, the 20,000 job losses will lead to loss of income by at least 120,000 directly.

The numbers increase as we add the losses suffered by contractors, suppliers and others associated with the company closing down.

The closure of BCN, after I left the company, was an eye-opener. I was there when we started local manufacturing of some brands.

We signed on suppliers of chemicals, packaging materials (bottles, caps, blister packs, etc), transporters and advertising agency.
They, in turn, relied on suppliers of inputs. Everybody was happy until Boots UK decided to pull out of the Nigerian market.

Manufacturing came to a halt first; and all the calamities associated with it. One printer supplied all the body labels; and he drove a Mercedes Benz. Boots’ business was enough for him; the orders flowed in. In one day, his business crashed – when he was called by the Purchasing Manager to be told the bad news. He was not alone.

The lives ruined by Boots closure were less than those demolished when NBL(K) ground to a halt. At least 1,500 big, small and microenterprises, domestic and international, are linked to a brewery. Thus, each time a brewery went down in Nigeria, uncountable number of jobs vanished. P&G and GSK represent the sort of foreign manufacturing companies a country is fortunate to have.

Incidentally, I also worked for SmithKline and French, SKF, in Nigeria, before the merger with Glaxo to form GSK. Drug manufacturers, with several products are divine gifts to domestic suppliers of raw materials, spare parts, components, packaging materials, fuel, vehicles, banking services, etc. They provide many jobs directly and indirectly. The challenge nations have increasingly is keeping them.

The unfortunate thing for a country experiencing mass exit by foreign manufacturers is the domino effect of such departures.

As everybody knows from experience, by the time you notice three-bed bugs, several hundreds are in the room. By the same token, by the time three big multinationals pack their bags, others are probably seriously considering the same decision or have already
reached the same conclusion: “time to go”. OTHERS TOO…

“Nigeria’s oil sector hit by exodus of foreign companies.” Financial Times. Thus, the announced departure of some companies in the manufacturing sector is occurring against the background of our nation’s increasing loss of economic competitiveness and hostile operating climate. Capital is always a coward. When demand and profits in constant dollars are shrinking; profits cannot be repatriated at will and there is no definite date for the transfer, then the exit door looks extremely inviting.

Today, foreign companies which are required to source a certain percentage of their inputs locally are stuck three ways. They cannot find forex to import inputs, they cannot find sufficient local raw materials e.g food and beverage sector and they can’t get their money out. What are they doing here?

Vanguard

That text message about your package could be a scam. 

One of the biggest scams you need to watch out for is coming from your phone. 

In “smishing” ― a term that combines “SMS” and “phishing” ― bad actors try to get your personal and banking information through unsolicited text messages on mobile devices. They do it by pretending to be government agencies, companies that you might have done business with, or a package delivery service. They’ll say something to get your urgent attention like a text about a free gift that you have to pay a small “shipping fee” to receive or they will send a warning about suspicious activity on your account.

“We see a lot of it with people posturing banks, saying ‘This is Chase Bank, there is a hold on your account due to a security breach, click here to verify your information,’” said Amy Nofziger, the director of fraud victim support with AARP. 

The Federal Trade Commission reports that Americans lost $330 million from smishing scams in 2022, with a median loss of $1,000. 

These kind of texting scams have an easier time at fooling us because our phones train us to pay attention to them. “We have our devices with us, 24/7. And when we hear that little ‘Ding!’ we automatically look at it. Whereas we don’t do that as much with our email anymore,” Nofziger said. 

In package smishing scams, the suspicious message can seem innocuous and read: “USPS: Since your package address does not have a house number, we are unable to arrange home delivery for you. Please update online,” the FTC shared as an example. But once you click, you’ll be asked to pay a “redelivery fee” to trick you into giving up your credit card information.

“Especially around the holidays and this time of the year, we are, on a more frequent basis, ordering packages. So it might not be out of the norm to get an email from a shipping company saying that there’s a delay,” Nofziger said. That’s why she advises consumers to get into the habit of writing down what you ordered, where you ordered it from, and what company will be the package delivery service. 

When in doubt, call the source instead of relying on a text message. “If you do think that there’s a problem with your shipping, your package, your item, your bank account ― just call the company at the number you have for them. And just check that way,” Nofziger said. 

“It is better to contact the company from their original website or phone number than to provide account information and login and password information from a bogus link,” said Stephanie Benoit-Kurtz, lead cybersecurity faculty at University of Phoenix College of Business and Information Technology.

How To Spot A ‘Smishing’ Message

A “smishing” message can seem like any other text message, but there are a few telltale signs that will warn you that something’s off. Here’s what to keep an eye on:

Look to see how many people also received your text. 

If your text about a free gift or suspicious activity was also sent to multiple people, be suspicious. “That’s an immediate red flag, and you should absolutely delete it and block that number right away,” Nofziger said.

Be wary of unsolicited messages that ask for your information. 

A regular solicitation will tell you information that you signed up to receive, while a spam message is more likely to ask for it, Nofziger said. “When they are then asking you to go off of that platform or asking you for personal information, that should be your No. 1 red flag. Nothing is as important as your personal and financial information,” she said. 

Be suspicious of any action you have to do right away.

Bad actors want you to not have time to think, so make sure to take a breath and really think about what you are being asked to do. “The sense of urgency is ‘right now,’ and they are looking for you to wire a check, purchase and provide information from gift cards, or log in to an account from this link,” Benoit-Kurtz said. 

What You Can Do To Block ‘Smishing’ Messages

Once you spot a “smishing” message, don’t just leave it in your messages folder. Take these actions to prevent future issues:

Block or filter unsolicited messages.

You can filter messages from unknown senders on Apple phones by going to Settings, then Messages. Scroll down until you see Filter Unknown Senders and select it.

On Android phones, go to Settings, then Blocked numbers. Turn on the Unknown option to block private or unidentified numbers from contacting you. 

Nofziger said that filtering out these messages is “a great tool that people can use to give yourself a little red flag ... ‘Well this person is not my contacts list, because it didn’t come in my regular folder. So let me take a moment, calm down, pay attention to what this message is asking.’”

Report smishing. 

USPS advises attaching a screenshot of the text message showing the phone number of the sender and the date sent, and sending that to This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it..

For unsolicited messages on iPhones that are not in your contacts, tap the Report Junk option that will appear, then tap Delete and Report Junk. On Android phones, click the person you want to block, then click More options, From there select “Block & report spam.”

In general, you can forward the suspicious message to 7726 (SPAM). That way, your wireless provider can learn to block similar spam messages for you. You can also report it to the FTC at reportfraud.ftc.gov.

What If I’ve Already Been ‘Smished’?

If you fell for the “smishing” scam, don’t panic. There are still steps you can take to mitigate losses.

If you click a link you think is suspicious, get your computer immediately checked for malware, Nofziger said. And ignore any follow-up texts the person may be sending you, even if they seem friendly.

“Stop the communication, because at some point, they’re going to ask you to go to a link or to help you with your device,” Nofziger said.

And make sure to call your bank about fraudulent transactions or security breaches, so they can investigate.

“If you think you are a victim of a scam, make sure to report it to the financial institution or the organization right away. You can also contact the state attorney general’s office to report the issue,” Benoit-Kurtz said. 

Buzzfeed

Director-General, Debt Management Office, Patience Oniha, disclosed on Monday that the Federal Government borrowed N7.04 trillion locally in 2023, adding that the figure was the FG’s domestic target for the year.

She revealed this while speaking to CNBC Africa on the sidelines of the discussions for the establishment of the African Debt Managers Initiative Network spearheaded by the African Development Institute of the African Development Bank in Abuja.

Oniha said, “I am happy to say that in 2023, the new domestic borrowing was N7.04 trillion, and as we speak, that has been raised in full.

“So, I don’t need to explain how we raised it, but it has been raised. When you compare it to the N3.5 trillion of last year. It tells you that the market has debt for us to raise money.”

She noted that several of the investors in the securities issued were institutions whose balance sheets were growing including asset managers, fund managers, pension funds, insurance companies, and banks.

She added, “We still had an auction this week. Subscription levels have been good, and the rates have been very responsible below the monetary policy rate, so it just tells you that there is liquidity.”

As of the second quarter of 2023, Nigeria’s total public debt rose to N87.38 trillion according to the DMO.

It said, “Nigeria’s total public debt stock as of June 30, 2023, was N87.38 trillion ($113.42 billion). It comprises the total domestic and external debts of the Federal Government of Nigeria, the thirty-six states, and the Federal Capital Territory.

“The major addition to the Public Debt Stock was the inclusion of the N22.712 trillion securitised FGN’s Ways and Means Advances.”

Punch

The United Nations migration body, the International Organisation for Migration (IOM), has disclosed that more Nigerians migrated abroad in 2023.

The IOM Chief of Mission in Nigeria, Laurent De Boeck, disclosed this during a media parley on Monday in Abuja.

According to him, no fewer than 260,000 Nigerians approached the IOM for assistance to leave the country in 2023.

“This 2023 number is the highest number we have ever had. We know now that those people have requested visas but they did it in a regular way which is positive.

“The UK is the number one destination for those 260,000 who came to us. It represents 80 per cent. The rest is the United States, Canada, Australia and some other European countries,” he said.

De Boeck said the IOM was in a discussion with Italy which had expressed an interest in developing regular pathways for qualified Nigerians who can fill up certain positions in the country.

He added that there were plans for discussions with Spain, Belgium, France and other countries as well.

The IOM Chief however predicted a decrease in the number of Nigerians leaving for America and Europe in 2024 as a result of strict policies being adopted by some countries.

“We expect that the number may decrease next year because of some decisions taken by some states,” he said, adding that Canada had effected new regulations for migrants from 2024, while the UK had also reduced the number of people entering the country.

“We expect that from 2024, there will be a decline in capacity to enter some countries in Europe because of the elections”, he added, saying politicians were campaigning to reduce migration to their respective countries.

Meanwhile, De Boeck has raised the alarm that more Nigerians were migrating from Kano irregularly.

“We have seen an increase of migrants in Kano which was a creation of the pressure from the people displaced from Kano itself or the region and we have found some youths coming from Taraba who ended up in Kano.

“There are some active smugglers and traffickers in Kano”, informing that the IOM was ready to combat them while also talking to the youth on employability and skills acquisition as alternatives to irregular migration.

“That is why we are developing what we call a ‘regular pathway’ to ensure that people if they want to migrate, can use the regular way,” he said.

Daily Trust

Nyesom Wike, minister of the federal capital territory (FCT) and Siminalayi Fubara, governor of Rivers state, have agreed to end the political feud between them.

According to the resolutions reached at the end of a meeting held with President Bola Tinubu at the State House of Monday, all parties to the crisis in Rivers have agreed that all matters instituted in courts should “immediately” be withdrawn.

In the eight-point resolution signed by Fubara, Wike, and other Rivers stakeholders, it was agreed that all impeachment proceedings against the governor should be dropped “immediately”.

They also agreed that Martin Amaewhule should be recognised as speaker while the 27 lawmakers who defected should be taken back as members of the assembly.

“The remunerations and benefits of ALL members of the Rivers state house of assembly and their staff must be reinstated immediately and the Governor of Rivers State shall henceforth not interfere with the full funding of the Rivers state house of assembly,” the agreement reads.

“The Rivers state house of assembly shall choose where they want to sit and conduct their legislative business without interference

and/or hindrance from the Executive arm of government

“The governor of Rivers state, Fubara, shall represent the state budget to a properly constituted Rivers State House of Assembly

“The names of all commissioners in the Rivers state executive council who resigned their appointments because of the political crisis in the state should be resubmitted to the House of assembly for approval.

“There should not be a caretaker committee for the local governments in Rivers state. The dissolution of the local government administration is null and void and shall not be recognised.”

THE RIFT

Over the past few weeks, there has been tension in Rivers over the feud between Fubara and Wike.

In the wake of the crisis, the Rivers house of assembly commenced impeachment proceedings against the governor.

Fubara’s loyalists kicked against the impeachment moves.

Thereafter, 27 lawmakers defected from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to join the All Progressives Congress (APC).

Subsequently, Edison Ehie, factional speaker of the Rivers assembly, declared the seats of the lawmakers who defected vacant.

The Cable

Pope Francis has formally approved allowing priests to bless same-sex couples, with a new document explaining a radical change in Vatican policy by insisting that people seeking God’s love and mercy shouldn’t be subject to “an exhaustive moral analysis” to receive it.

The document from the Vatican’s doctrine office, released Monday, elaborates on a letter Francis sent to two conservative cardinals that was published in October. In that preliminary response, Francis suggested such blessings could be offered under some circumstances if they didn’t confuse the ritual with the sacrament of marriage.

The new document repeats that condition and elaborates on it, reaffirming that marriage is a lifelong sacrament between a man and a woman. And it stresses that blessings in question must be non-liturgical in nature and should not be conferred at the same time as a civil union, using set rituals or even with the clothing and gestures that belong in a wedding.

But it says requests for such blessings for same-sex couples should not be denied full stop. It offers an extensive and broad definition of the term “blessing” in Scripture to insist that people seeking a transcendent relationship with God and looking for his love and mercy should not be subject to “an exhaustive moral analysis” as a precondition for receiving it.

“Ultimately, a blessing offers people a means to increase their trust in God,” the document said. “The request for a blessing, thus, expresses and nurtures openness to the transcendence, mercy, and closeness to God in a thousand concrete circumstances of life, which is no small thing in the world in which we live.”

He added: "It is a seed of the Holy Spirit that must be nurtured, not hindered.”

The document marks the latest gesture of outreach from a pope who has made welcoming LGBTQ+ Catholics a hallmark of his papacy. From his 2013 quip, “Who am I to judge?” about a purportedly gay priest, to his 2023 comment to The Associated Press that “Being homosexual is not a crime,”Francis has distinguished himself from all his predecessors with his message of welcome.

“The significance of this news cannot be overstated,” said Francis DeBernardo of New Ways Ministry, which supports LGBTQ+ Catholics. “It is one thing to formally approve same-gender blessings, which he had already pastorally permitted, but to say that people should not be subjected to “an exhaustive moral analysis” to receive God’s love and mercy is an even more significant step.”

The Vatican holds that marriage is an indissoluble union between man and woman. As a result, it has long opposed same-sex marriage.

And in 2021, the Vatican’s Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith said flat-out that the church couldn’t bless the unions of two men or two women because “God cannot bless sin.”

That document created an outcry, one it appeared even Francis was blindsided by even though he had technically approved its publication. Soon after it was published, he removed the official responsible for it and set about laying the groundwork for a reversal.

In the new document, the Vatican said the church must shy away from “doctrinal or disciplinary schemes, especially when they lead to a narcissistic and authoritarian elitism whereby instead of evangelizing, one analyzes and classifies others, and instead of opening the door to grace, one exhausts his or her energies in inspecting and verifying."

It stressed that people in “irregular” unions of extramarital sex — gay or straight — are in a state of sin. But it said that shouldn’t deprive them of God’s love or mercy. “Even when a person’s relationship with God is clouded by sin, he can always ask for a blessing, stretching out his hand to God,” the document said.

Offering such a blessing isn't legitimizing anything. But at the same time, the church shouldn't judge, he said.

“Thus, when people ask for a blessing, an exhaustive moral analysis should not be placed as a precondition for conferring it,” the document said.

The Rev. James Martin, who advocates for a greater welcome for LGBTQ+ Catholics, praised the new document as a “huge step forward” and a “dramatic shift” from the Vatican's 2021 policy.

The new document “recognizes the deep desire in many Catholic same-sex couples for God’s presence and help in their committed relationships,” he said in an email. "Along with many Catholic priests, I will now be delighted to bless my friends in same-sex marriages.”

Traditionalists, however, were outraged. The traditionalist blogger Luigi Casalini of Messa in Latino (Latin Mass) blog wrote that the document appeared to be a form of heresy.

“The church is crumbling,” he wrote.

AP

US envoys work for new hostage release deal, scale-down of Israel-Hamas war but say no timetable

The head of the CIA jetted to Europe for talks with Israeli and Qatari officials Monday, sounding out the potential for a deal on a new cease-fire and the release of hostages in Gaza, as the U.S. defense secretary spoke to Israeli military leaders about scaling back major combat operations against Hamas.

Still, there was no sign that a shift in the war was imminent after more than two months of devastating bombardment and fighting. Fierce battles raged in northern Gaza, where residents said rescue workers were searching for the dead and the living under buildings flattened by Israeli strikes.

Pressure is growing, as France, the U.K. and Germany — some of Israel’s closest allies — joined global calls for a cease-fire over the weekend. Israeli protesters have demanded the government relaunch talks with Hamas on releasing more hostages after three were mistakenly killed by Israeli troops while waving a white flag.

U.S. officials have repeatedly expressed concern about the large number of civilian deaths in Gaza. But after talks with Israeli officials Monday, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said, “This is Israel’s operation. I’m not here to dictate timelines or terms.” The U.S. has vetoed calls for a cease-fire at the U.N. and has rushed munitions to Israel.

The U.N Security Council delayed a vote to Tuesday on an Arab-sponsored resolution calling for a halt to hostilities to allow unhindered access to humanitarian aid. Diplomats said negotiations were taking place to get the U.S. to abstain or vote “yes” on the resolution.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has insisted that Israel will keep fighting until it ends Hamas rule in Gaza, crushes its formidable military capabilities and frees hostages still held in Gaza since the deadly Oct. 7 attack inside Israel that ignited the war. Militants killed some 1,200 people and abducted 240 others in the attack.

The war has killed more than 19,000 Palestinians and demolished much of the north into a moonscape. Some 1.9 million Palestinians — nearly 85% of Gaza’s population — have fled their homes, with most packing into U.N.-run shelters and tent camps in the southern part of the besieged territory.

HOSTAGE TALKS

In an apparent sign that talks on a hostage deal were growing more serious, CIA Director William Burns met in Warsaw with the head of Israel’s Mossad intelligence agency and the prime minister of Qatar, a U.S. official said.

It was the first known meeting of the three since the end of a weeklong cease-fire in late November, during which some 100 hostages — including a number of foreign nationals — were freed in exchange for the release of around 240 Palestinians held in Israeli prisons.

National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said the talks were not “at a point where another deal is imminent.”

Aiming to increase public pressure on the Israeli government, Hamas released a video showing three elderly Israeli hostages, sitting in white T-shirts and pleading for Israel to bring their immediate release.

The comments were likely made under duress, but the video signaled Hamas wants to move on to discussions of releasing sick and elderly men in captivity. Israel has said it wants around 19 women and two children freed first. Hamas says the women include soldiers, for whom it is expected to demand a higher price in terms of prisoner releases.

Hamas and other militants are still holding an estimated 129 captives. Hamas has said no more hostages will be released until the war ends.

SCALING DOWN THE WAR

Austin, who arrived in Israel with Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. CQ Brown, said he and Israeli officials exchanged “thoughts on how to transition from high intensity operations” in Gaza and how to increase the flow of humanitarian aid.

American officials have called for targeted operations aimed at killing Hamas leaders, destroying tunnels and rescuing hostages. U.S. President Joe Biden warned last week that Israel is losing international support because of its “indiscriminate bombing.”

Speaking alongside Austin, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said only that “the war will take time.”

Israeli military spokesman Daniel Hagari said the Israeli chief of staff met with Austin and Brown and presented “plans for the continuation of the battle in the coming stages.”

European countries appear to be losing patience. “Far too many civilians have been killed in Gaza,” EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell posted on X.

Under U.S. pressure, Israel provided more precise evacuation instructions earlier this month as troops moved into the southern city of Khan Younis. Still, casualties have continued to mount and Palestinians say nowhere in Gaza is safe as Israel carries out strikes in all parts of the territory.

Israel reopened its main cargo crossing with Gaza to allow more aid in — also after a U.S. request. But the amount is less than half of prewar imports, even as needs have soared and fighting hinders delivery in many areas. Israel blocked entry off all goods into Gaza soon after the war started and weeks later began allowing a small amount of aid in through Egypt.

MORE DEATH AND DESTRUCTION

At least 110 people were killed in Israeli strikes Sunday on residential buildings in the urban Jabaliya refugee camp in northern Gaza, Munir al-Boursh, a senior Health Ministry official, told Al Jazeera television.

Fierce fighting continued Monday in Jabaliya and the Gaza City districts of Zaytoun and Shijaiyah, where tens of thousands of Palestinians remain trapped, crowded in homes or schools.

In Jabaliya, first responders and residents searched the rubble of many collapsed buildings. “They use their hands and shovels,” said Amal Radwan, who is staying at a U.N. shelter there. “We need bulldozers and above all the bombing to stop.”

More than 19,400 Palestinians have been killed, according to the Health Ministry, which has said that most are women and minors and that thousands more are buried under rubble. The ministry does not differentiate between civilian and combatant deaths.

Israel’s military says 127 of its soldiers have been killed in the Gaza ground offensive. It says it has killed thousands of militants, without providing evidence.

Israel blames civilian deaths on Hamas, saying it uses them as human shields. But the military rarely comments on individual strikes.

REGIONAL TENSIONS

In Bahrain early Tuesday, Austin said that the U.S. and other nations have created a new force to protect commercial ships passing through the Red Sea from attacks by Yemen’s Houthi rebels. The Houthis say their attacks aim to end Israel’s offensive in Gaza, and their campaign has prompted a growing list of companies to halt operations in the major trade route.

“This is an international challenge that demands collective action,” Austin said in statement.

Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah have traded fire along the border nearly every day since the war began. And in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, over 300 Palestinians have been killed since the start of the war, including four overnight during an Israeli military raid in the Faraa refugee camp, according to the Palestinian Health Ministry.

This has been the deadliest year for Palestinians in the West Bank since 2005. Most have been killed during military raids, which often ignite gunbattles, or during violent demonstrations.

AP

WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Ukraine's top general criticizes president's firing of recruitment chiefs- media

Ukraine's top general on Monday issued his strongest criticism to date of a previous presidential decision to fire regional military draft office chiefs, Interfax Ukraine reported.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy fired all of Ukraine's regional military recruitment heads in August in a corruption crackdown.

He said at the time a state investigation into centres across Ukraine had exposed abuses by officials ranging from illegal enrichment to transporting draft-eligible men across the border despite a wartime ban on them leaving the country.

Asked by reporters on the sidelines of an event on Monday about whether the decision affected mobilisation levels, Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief Valeriy Zaluzhnyi bemoaned the recruitment chiefs' sacking.

"These were professionals, they knew how to do this, and they are gone," Interfax Ukraine cited him as saying.

Zaluzhnyi's frank assessment of battlefield realities in a November essay published in The Economist are in stark contrast to the unwavering optimism of Zelenskiy's public speeches.

Ukrainska Pravda, a major Ukrainian media outlet, recently reported of a long history of growing tensions between the two men, citing several anonymous officials.

Asked by reporters to comment on the Defence Ministry's recent plan to boost military recruitment, Zaluzhnyi said the old system should be brought back.

"It is still a little early to evaluate recruiting. As for mobilization issues, it is not necessary to strengthen it, but to return it to those boundaries (and) to those frameworks that worked before," Interfax Ukraine quoted him as saying.

Ukraine, which initially saw tens of thousands of eager volunteers queue up to fight off Russia's invasion, is now trying to conscript more men to replace those currently at the front.

Angry social media posts have abounded in recent weeks purporting to show army recruiters turning up at gyms and resorts to hand out draft notices.

Zaluzhnyi's remarks come a day after it was publicly revealed that an information gathering device had been found in an office that he had been due to move into, with the domestic security service launching an investigation.

** White House plans one more Ukraine aid package, then up to Congress

President Joe Biden is planning one more military aid package in December for Ukraine in its war against Russia, the White House said on Monday, then further assistance to Kyiv will require an agreement in Congress where prospects for a deal were uncertain.

"When that one's done ... we will have no more replenishment authority available to us and we're going to need Congress to act without delay," White House national security spokesperson John Kirby said.

The White House has warned that U.S. aid will run out by the year's end for Ukraine's fight to retake territory occupied by Russian forces since it invaded in February 2022.

Talks continued on Monday in the Senate, where Democrats have a slim majority, on a deal that would include aid for Ukraine and Israel as well as new measures to improve security at the U.S.-Mexico border.

Republicans have insisted that improved border security be part of any deal on Ukraine aid, although it was unclear whether senators had enough time to clinch an agreement in the days remaining before leaving for a holiday break.

Senate Republicans earlier this month blocked an emergency spending billwith $50 billion in new Ukraine aid, demanding tougher steps to control immigration at the U.S.-Mexico border.

"Over the past week, Democrats and Republicans have made important progress towards an agreement on the national security supplemental," top Senate Democrat Chuck Schumer said on Monday. "While the job is not finished, I am confident we're headed in the right direction."

However, Schumer's Republican counterpart, Mitch McConnell - whose support would be needed to pass such a bill - said it will "require some time" to reach a deal.

Another top Senate Republican, John Thune, sounded a similar note, telling reporters: "Obviously we are not going to get this done this week. We all know that now."

Even if the Senate were to reach an agreement and pass a bill this week, the Republican-controlled House of Representatives - where a significant number of Republicans have voiced opposition to additional Ukraine aid - is not due to return to work until Jan. 8.

Last week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy visited Washingtonbut received a skeptical reception from key Republican lawmakers, including House Speaker Mike Johnson.

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

Russian air defense shot down two MiG-29, Su-25, 91 drones over day

Over the past 24 hours, Russian air defense systems shot down two MiG-29 aircraft, one Su-25, and 91 unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense.

"Over the day, air defense systems shot down two MiG-29 and one Su-25 aircraft of the Ukrainian Air Force in the areas of the settlements of Elizavetovka in the Nikolayev region, Druzhkovka and Dobropolye in the Donetsk People’s Republic. <…> In addition, 91 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles were destroyed during the day ", the ministry said.

Two HIMARS MLRS shells and a JDAM guided munition were also intercepted, the Ministry of Defense added.

The Russian Armed Forces destroyed the command post of the 47th mechanized brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, a HIMARS MLRS launcher, as well as aircraft fuel depots. "Operational-tactical aviation, unmanned aerial vehicles, missile forces and artillery of groupings of troops of the Russian Armed Forces destroyed the command post of the 47th mechanized brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. In addition, in the area of the settlement of Konstantinovka in the Donetsk People's Republic, a launcher of the HIMARS multiple launch rocket system was hit and fuel depots for aircraft of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were destroyed at the Kanatovo airfield in the Kirovograd region and Starokonstantinov in the Khmelnytsky region," the statement said.

The Russian Armed Forces also repelled nine attacks by the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kupyansk direction over the day. "In the Kupyansk direction, competent actions of units of the Western Group of Forces, air strikes, artillery fire and heavy flamethrower systems repelled nine attacks by assault groups of the 115th mechanized and 95th air assault brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the areas of the settlements of Sinkovka and Terny in the Kharkov region. Losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces consisted of over 50 military personnel, an infantry fighting vehicle, and two armored combat vehicles," the statement said.

According to the ministry, two Gvozdika self-propelled artillery mounts and two D-30 howitzers were hit during the fight.

Units of the central group of the Russian Armed Forces in the Krasny Liman direction repelled an attack by a special forces brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. "In the Krasny Liman direction, units of the Center group of troops, with the support of artillery, repelled an attack by the 12th Special Forces Brigade of the National Guard of Ukraine southeast of the village of Kuzmino, Lugansk People’s Republic," the statement said.

Reuters/Tass

When Francis Fukuyama published his famous 1989 essay, “The End of History?,” he captured the mood in many Western capitals at the time. Not everybody agreed with him that “the endpoint of mankind’s ideological evolution” had been reached, but few could deny the resonance of his message. In anticipating “an unabashed victory” for “economic and political liberalism,” he was channeling both the emerging policymaking consensus and what had already become the standard approach in much of academia.

This late twentieth-century consensus rested on two distinct but synergistic pillars: political liberalism and economic liberalism. In the political domain, democratic institutions had the wind behind them and seemed to be taking root inexorably.

Humanity had been subjected to authoritarian despots and outright lawlessness for much of its existence. But ever since democracy had been “invented” in its modern form, the idea had been spreading around the world. Following the exhaustion of the alternatives (absolutism, fascism, communism) in the twentieth century, many Westerners concluded that their model would ultimately triumph everywhere, even in places with little or no democratic history, such as the Middle East. Ordinary people would demand a voice, and even iron-fisted autocrats would not be able to resist the implications of this “Western idea.”

To be sure, the process would not unfold seamlessly. Fukuyama and the many others who shared his outlook understood that the triumph of democracy would take decades. It would involve rebellions, revolutions, civil wars, and large-scale disruptions to entire societies. Nonetheless, the arc of history was unmistakably bending toward democracy.

The proponents of this view drew heavily from the “modernization theory” of the 1950s and 1960s. Adherents to this school believed that democracy followed naturally from economic growth, and that once a democracy had grown rich enough, it could never be dragged back into authoritarianism. These conclusions also bolstered the old Kantian supposition that democracies do not go to war against other democracies. Thus, a world of democracies would create the conditions for international peace and the establishment of a “rules-based order.”

Politically, the future looked bright, and the economic outlook was no less bullish. By the late 1980s, a kind of free-market fundamentalism had taken hold across the “triumphant” liberal democracies. After all, there was clear evidence to show that market economies vastly outperformed centrally planned ones. They seemed to be better both at fostering innovation and at providing the kinds of goods and services that people wanted. For many, it seemed a short step to conclude that the less fettered markets were, the more innovation and economic dynamism they would produce.

But such arguments conveniently ignored the fact that the United States was a heavily regulated economy when it was outperforming the Soviet Union. The US government actively supported innovation, not only by subsidizing research and development but also by setting the direction of technology. Strong unions and minimum wages helped to institutionalize a norm of reciprocity that ensured that workers’ pay tracked productivity growth, while fiscal policy kept inequality in check by redistributing from the rich to the poor and the middle class.

The Backlash

There has since been a widespread and broad-based backlash against economic and political liberalism. In the US and around the world, people are increasingly dissatisfied with democracy – particularly younger cohorts, which report a growing preference for left-wing or right-wing authoritarian regimes. On both sides of the Atlantic, it is now common to hear arguments advocating new forms of socialism or a move away from economic growth altogether.

This is a dangerous intellectual shift. The core assumptions behind such proposals are even more wrongheaded than the idea that economic and political liberalism are inevitable. As my own work shows, democracies do indeed outperform non-democracies quite consistently, both historically and in recent decades. Democracies deliver not only stronger economic growth, but also better health care and education for their citizens, notably the least well-off.

These benefits are undeniable, but they do not make the rise of democracy inevitable. Democracy takes work, and the processes that sustain it will always be contested. Democratic institutions necessarily reduce the power of elites and autocrats, who in turn will resist them. Democratic governance requires compromise, which can be a tall order in societies with a legacy of ethnic or religious conflict.

Democracy also requires an active and well-informed citizenry. But this is increasingly hard to come by when major television and social-mediachannels routinely spew falsehoods and citizens ignore civic engagement. During America’s long and costly “forever wars” in Afghanistan and Iraq, for example, the vast majority of its citizens were encouraged to go on with their lives, as if they had nothing at stake.

We also know that central planning is very seldom successful, especially when it comes to fostering innovation. History is replete with examples of economic growth being blocked because the state or powerful actors exercised too much control over innovation. In a world where poverty is still widespread, economic growth remains a moral imperative, and markets therefore remain a key part of the solution. But this does not mean that unfettered markets will reliably steer innovation in socially desirable directions. In fact, market economies work much better when they are appropriately regulated.

The seemingly simple solutions proposed by extremists – be it unfettered economic liberalism or some enlightened form of socialism – will not work. But until we have a new paradigm for thinking about the future, they will have a powerful influence on public opinion and policy debates.

In Search of a Roadmap

New paradigms are built collectively, gradually, and through sustained efforts by many stakeholders. But honing our analysis and enriching our thinking in five areas would facilitate the process.

For starters, despite its widespread benefits, democracy will not vanquish autocracy anytime soon. In an age of new disruptive technologies, rising inequalities, and globalization, the “narrow corridor” (specific conditions) in which democratic governance can thrive is likely to become even narrower. Bolstering democratic institutions thus will require even greater efforts than in the past.

To navigate this narrowing corridor, we must abandon the conceit that all our biggest challenges can be understood as engineering problems, as if we can solve everything with the right technologies. The last two decades have provided ample evidence that technology itself is undermining the functioning of democratic institutions, and empowering autocrats to brainwash and control their populations. And yet we currently have neither a good understanding of how new communication technologies disrupt democratic processes, nor a principled strategy for regulating them.

Second, democracy’s future cannot be separated from the global context. We must abandon the idea that trading freely with authoritarian countries will “promote freedom” within their borders or make their governments any friendlier to democracy (as US President George H.W. Bush once claimed). Of course, this observation raises many more questions than it answers. How should democratic criteria influence economic ties and international diplomacy? Should democracies avoid supply chains that rely heavily on non-democratic countries? How should they think about technology transfers, joint research, and related issues? Neither academics nor policymakers have clear answers to such questions.

Third, it can no longer be assumed that economic growth will inexorably create shared gains. The US and the rest of the Western world have enjoyed significant technological progress and productivity growth over the past four decades, but workers, especially those without college degrees and specialized technical skills, have scarcely benefited. Textbook economic models generally suggest that productivity growth should ultimately translate into wage growth, but that has not been happening.

What the standard models usually miss is that the source of productivity growth matters very much, and the manner in which wages are set matters even more. Using machines to do what workers used to do may improve productivity, but it will not automatically bring shared prosperity. When output increases, employers and managers may choose to keep more of the gains for themselves, using automation to undercut workers’ bargaining power whenever the institutional framework allows. Shared prosperity thus depends not only on productivity growth but also on the right composition of technology, institutions, and norms.

After Market Fundamentalism

We also need to rethink innovation policy. Yes, we in the West owe our prosperity, health, longevity, and modern conveniences to the three centuries of technological progress that never would have happened without market incentives. But the necessity of markets for driving innovation does not make them sufficient for producing social benefits. Markets direct investment toward technologies that will generate greater profits, which are not always the same as those that would foster growth or improve welfare.

In health care, for example, high-tech procedures and drugs targeting cures are more profitable than innovations to bolster public health and disease prevention, even though these could bring more social benefits. The market excessively favors the former, leading to underinvestment in the latter.

Similarly, left to its own devices, the market will continue to channel investment to fossil fuels. Taxation, regulation, and societal pressure are all necessary to direct more capital toward renewables. I have also argued that the market may be driving overinvestment in automation, at the expense of the social and economic benefits that would come from improving worker productivity. In all these cases, we must move away from market fundamentalism in designing innovation policy. And yet, once again, much more research is needed to design better alternative frameworks.

Lastly, abandoning market fundamentalism means rethinking some of the key pillars of our regulatory regimes. A common approach in economics is to allow market processes to unfold before stepping in to consider whether there is too much poverty or inequality in the outcome. The standard fiscal tools of redistribution – direct transfers and safety-net programs – are thus considered to be sufficient. But this assumption needs to be questioned.

A new regulatory framework must recognize the systematic distortions that can accompany market processes. Recent research shows that, contrary to the conventional academic wisdom, highly egalitarian countries like Sweden have not achieved more equitable outcomes solely through tax-transfer schemes. No less important is that their pre-tax income distributions are far more equal than in countries like the US. This reflects the more equal distribution of skills among Swedish workers, and that wage negotiations and the broader institutional framework are geared toward ensuring that workers receive a fair slice of the economic pie.

We have entered rough seas without a clear map of how to reach calmer waters. But there is much we can learn from new social-science research and intellectual innovation to help us navigate the way.

Project Syndicate

No matter who you are, you won’t become successful overnight — and the sooner you internalize that, the better, says film director Spike Lee.

“One of the worst lies that’s been told to young people is that there’s a thing called ‘overnight success.’ That’s done a lot of damage to people,” Lee, 66, said at the 2023 LinkedIn Talent Connect Summit in New York earlier this year. “It’s not like you’re just out there, and the hand of God is going to come down from the heavens and say, ‘You are the next one.’ That is BS.”

For even the luckiest people, success is usually preceded by a lot of work, said Lee — even if it doesn’t seem apparent on the surface. His message: If you’re simply waiting around for the right opportunity or spotlight, but not doing anything to prepare for it or hasten its presence, you probably won’t achieve what you want.

In Lee’s case, he’s a longtime popular filmmaker with an Oscar, two Primetime Emmys and numerous other award nominations. But he had to “claw” to be taken seriously at first, he told LinkedIn editor-in-chief Daniel Roth in an interview last month.

“When I graduated from Morehouse College [in 1979], I knew I wanted to go to film school,” Lee said. “But that whole thing of ... moving out to LA and working your way up from the mailroom, that don’t work for Black people.”

Lee was rejected from film schools at the University of Southern California and the American Film Institute, but accepted at New York University — based on the quality of his work, rather than his results on standardized tests like the GRE, he said.

Lee’s story isn’t uncommon, across most industries. Mark Cuban, a billionaire tech entrepreneur and investor, started cutting his teeth as a salesman at age 12 — but didn’t feel “successful” for the first time until age 28, or become a billionaire until age 40.

Most of the world’s biggest companies similarly took years of struggle and tight budgets to get off the ground, from tech giants like Microsoft to apparel behemoths like Nike.

Often, an “overnight success” only seems that way because you didn’t see the work that went into it — especially in today’s digital age, where highlights and wins on social media are more prolific than the full stories behind people’s triumphs. That trend contributes to poor mental health and low self-esteem in young people, studies show.

You can address that by embracing the ebbs and flows of your journey, and getting rid of the notion that your dreams will come true instantaneously, said Lee.

“It’s not going to happen overnight. There are going to be times where you want to cry and you want to quit,” he said at the LinkedIn summit. “You can’t quit. You’ve got to keep going!”

CNBC