WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Ukraine's Zelenskiy warns of 'difficult defence' in east as cold sets in

Ukrainian troops face "difficult" defensive operations on parts of the eastern front with bitter winter cold setting in, but forces in the south are still conducting offensive actions, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Wednesday.

Russian troops launched offensives on different sections of the front line in Ukraine's east this autumn, trying to advance on the devastated town of Avdiivka and in the northeast between the towns of Lyman and Kupiansk.

"Difficult weather, difficult defence on the Lyman, Bakhmut, Donetsk and Avdiivka fronts. Offensive actions in the south," Zelenskiy said on Telegram messenger.

The Ukrainian general prosecutor's office said one man died when Russian forces shelled Avdiivka, another in an attack on Chasiv Yar to the north and a third in the southern city of Kherson. In the town of Sedylove in the east, a third body was pulled from rubble after a hospital was struck on Tuesday.

Operations could be complicated by cold weather, with daytime temperatures of minus 5 degrees Celsius (23 degrees Fahrenheit) expected to dip as fighting moves to an attritional phase.

Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022 and now controls nearly a fifth of its territory. A Ukrainian counteroffensive, under way since June, has made no major breakthrough.

The front line has changed little in Avdiivka since fighting erupted in 2014 between Kyiv and Russian-backed militants, but the town has faced waves of attacks since mid-October, followed by temporary lulls, according to the Ukrainian military.

After one such lull the day before, the head of the "Tavria" military command said on Wednesday that Russian troops had "dramatically increased" the number of assaults and airstrikes.

"Our defenders are steadfastly holding the defence in the Avdiivka direction," Commander Oleksandr Tarnavskyi said on Telegram. Ukrainian forces continued the offensive on the southeastern Melitopol front, he added.

In its evening report, Ukraine's General Staff said 22 Russian attacks had been beaten back in and around Avdiivka.

Military analyst Oleksandr Musiyenko told NV Radio that Ukrainian forces had launched counterattacks near Avdiivka in the past week and "managed to push the enemy back from previous positions".

In an earlier battlefield report, the General Staff said troops were holding bridgeheads secured on the eastern side of the River Dnipro occupied by Russian forces in the early days of their invasion.

In his nightly video address, Zelenskiy said the latest gathering of military officials from Western countries helping Ukraine had set up a "coalition to develop air defence" led by France and Germany. Kyiv sees improving air defences as critical to its drive to evict Russian troops.

In its account of the fighting, Russia's Defence Ministry said its troops had struck Ukrainian troops and equipment near Bakhmut, another devastated town north of Avdiivka.

Reuters could not independently verify frontline reports.

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

Ukraine feeling Western ‘conflict fatigue’ – FT

Kiev is “nervous” that Ukraine is losing Western support after the failure of this summer’s counteroffensive and urgently needs the US and the EU to double down on sending it money, weapons and supplies, editors of the Financial Times urged on Wednesday.

Russian President Vladimir Putin “may feel for now that the odds have shifted in his favor in his gamble that he can outlast the West,” the editorial said.

“The counteroffensive that Ukraine had hoped would begin to drive out Russian troops — and convince its allies that they were backing a winner — has not produced the hoped-for breakthrough,” the editors acknowledge. 

According to the FT, Ukraine faces a series of problems. The EU can’t seem to unblock its “peace facility” funding. In the US, the White House is having a hard time getting Congress to pass another aid bill. Meanwhile, the West’s attention – and resources – have been diverted by the Israel-Hamas war.

However, the outlet insisted that “support for Ukraine remains solid” in both the US and the EU, though it called the possible return of Donald Trump to the White House an “alarming” prospect for this policy.

Arguing that “in wartime, perception can be as important as reality,” FT editors proposed a series of measures the West could take “to convince Ukraine of their engagement for the long term,” from sending Kiev more money and weapons to a promise of EU membership.

The EU “must quickly find a way” to implement the €50 billion ‘Peace Facility’ funding, and “fast-track plans” to send Ukraine the profits from interest earned by frozen Russian assets, and invite Ukraine to start membership talks, according to the British outlet. 

FT also demanded more and better sanctions against Russia and more military production in Europe, so as to meet General Valery Zaluzhny’s “useful shopping list of the high-tech tools” needed by the Ukrainian military.

“On the military front, allies need to speed up the supply of fighter jets, and training of Ukrainian pilots, to provide vital air cover to ground forces. They need a more systematic approach to the supply of arms — rather than simply donating stocks of surplus and outdated weapons,” FT editors declared.

Since the hostilities with Russia escalated in February 2022, Ukraine has burned through most of its original tanks and armored vehicles, relying on donations of mothballed Soviet hardware from NATO members – and eventually NATO equipment like Leopard tanks and Bradley IFVs – to replace them. The US and its allies have largely run out of stockpiled ammunition and are struggling to ramp up new production, falling short of the deliveries they promised. 

Even if the West somehow managed to supply Kiev with all the weapons it wanted, Ukrainian officials told Time Magazine earlier this month, Ukraine would lack the manpower to operate them. According to Russian estimates, Kiev has lost more than 100,000 troops since its counteroffensive began in early June.

Reuters/RT

Sometimes you hear a fact that makes you think, "There's no way that can be true." And yet — it is.

Redditor u/BlackAfghaniRose recently asked the people of Reddit, "What’s a fact that sounds like a conspiracy theory?" Yes, sometimes truth really is stranger than fiction:

1. "JFK's brain was removed during the autopsy and stored in an archive. Its current whereabouts are unknown."

—u/AdMaterial9419

2. "The Church of Scientology had members secretly infiltrate US government agencies in order to destroy unfavorable documents and investigations into them."

—u/TripleThreatTua

3. "Ernest Hemingway suffered from ongoing paranoia that the FBI were surveilling him, which was thought to be a key factor in his suicide. Most chalked it up to mental illness at the time. Decades later, his file was released, proving he was under investigation for his ties to Cuba, his phones were tapped, and he was right all along."

—u/allbitterandclean

4. "In the spring of 1968, US President Lyndon Johnson announced that he would not seek election to a second full term. He gave no explanation, and everyone assumed that it was because of Vietnam and his resulting unpopularity, but it was far from the full story. Concerned that males in his family tended to die young, and having barely survived a heart attack in the 1950s, in 1967 Johnson had commissioned an actuarial study to determine his likely lifespan. The actuaries concluded that Johnson was unlikely to survive to age 65. Johnson realized he'd have a very short retirement if he ran and won in 1968, as he'd be 64 at the end of the term. This led him to decide against running. The actuaries were right, as Johnson died at 64. Had he served a second full term, he would have died less than 24 hours after the end of the term."

—u/prosa123

5. "Tax service companies such as Intuit spend millions of dollars a year lobbying to make sure the IRS does not make it easier to file your taxes."

—u/ktappe

6. "In the lead-up to the 1968 Summer Olympics in Mexico, the country was embarrassed by massive protests. At one of the large protests in Mexico City, they put snipers in some tall buildings near a large government building guarded by a line of police officers. When the protesters made it to the line of police officers, they continued to peacefully protest. The snipers opened fire on the police, making it appear that the protestors were shooting at the cops. The cops retaliated, mowing down countless protestors, thinking they were defending themselves. Protestors were killed and fled the scene. The government was ready, rushed in, and immediately cleaned up the scene. To this day, they have no idea how many people were killed at the scene, and no one knew about the plot to instigate the massacre of the protestors until years later. It worked, though — there were no more protests."

—u/BigMax

7. "In the 1960s and 1970s, thousands of Native American women were sterilized without their consent as part of a practice to sterilize poor and minority women to 'help their financial situation and their family's quality of life' by preventing unwanted pregnancies in poor communities. Some were not informed at all and had it done to them completely without their knowledge; others were threatened with having their healthcare taken away if they did not agree to have it done to them. Some studies estimate that as many as 25%–50% of Native American women were sterilized in the 1970s, representing tens of thousands of victims. This was essentially a modern day genocide in the United States."

—u/SendMeNudesThough

8. "Project SUNSHINE — in which the US government, in the wake of dropping atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, ordered a major study to better understand the effects of radiation exposure and nuclear fallout on the human body. So an international network of agents was recruited to locate recently deceased children and steal body parts from them to use for testing."

—u/likelyadvancement

9. "There was ONE recorded homicide in New York City on September 11, 2001. The people who died because of the attacks weren’t considered part of the homicides for that day because a very high number like that is a statistical outlier that would throw off accurate record numbers. The one person who was murdered was a Polish immigrant named Henryk Siwiak, who was nowhere near the attacks. He was killed in the Bedford Stuyvesant area of Brooklyn at around 11:40 p.m."

—u/SuperdudeKev

10. "COINTELPRO is straight up conspiracy theory-sounding, but 10,000% true. They even sent letters to MLK telling him to commit suicide. No wonder people believe that the US government is probably doing other shady shit — because they probably are."

—u/Ksan_of_Tongass

11. "There are government-built bunkers dotted around the US that hold a total of 1.4 billion pounds of cheese. The government was buying excess milk to prop up the dairy industry, turning it into cheese and shoving it underground since the end of Prohibition up until the Reagan administration."

—u/DevinMeister

12. "Some time after World War II, the US was doing some pretty wild experiments, including trying to see if they could teach dolphins to talk. They believed this was only achievable by full immersion, so they built a house and filled it with water and had a researcher live with the dolphin."

—u/Skootchy

13. "Whistleblower Edward Snowden revealed in 2013 that the US National Security Agency was conducting mass surveillance on citizens, collecting data from internet communications, phone calls, and other sources."

—u/Euphoric-Beat-7206

14. "Everyone, even from Roman times, knew asbestos was bad for your health."

—u/the-software-man

15. "In two-thirds of all US states, EMS is NOT considered an essential service. As such, it receives next to zero government funding or support."

—u/Boogaloogaloogalooo

16. "The Pentagon has never been able to account for more than half its budget."

—u/Dune1008

17. "In 1919, the manufacture, sale, and transportation of alcohol was prohibited. But instead of plummeting, alcohol sales soared. Speakeasies opened everywhere, and people in some neighborhoods were drinking even more than before. In 1926, the authorities asked manufacturers to add toxic substances to their alcohol. In New York alone, 1,200 drinkers were poisoned, and 400 died. A wave of deaths would eventually sweep across the country. This 'poisoning policy' was not stopped until December 1933."

—u/Mrnoword

18. "Operation Northwoods. The US government proposed having the CIA commit terrorist attacks in major US cities so we could blame them on Cuba and go to war. The proposals called for CIA operatives to both stage and commit acts of terrorism against American military and civilian targets, blaming them on the Cuban government, and using it to justify a war against Cuba. The possibilities detailed in the document included the remote control of civilian aircraft which would be secretly repainted as US Air Force plane, a fabricated 'shoot down' of a US Air Force fighter aircraft off the coast of Cuba, the possible assassination of Cuban immigrants, sinking boats of Cuban refugees on the high seas, blowing up a US ship, and orchestrating terrorism in US cities. The proposals were rejected by President John F. Kennedy."

—u/ThePresidentPlate

And finally...

19. There's a psychological reaction called 'The Backfire Effect' which essentially means that people, after they're given proof that what they think they know is absolutely wrong, will believe misconceptions or misinformation even more deeply."

—u/ZorroMeansFox

These entries have been edited for length and clarity.

Buzzfeed

The most emotionally intelligent people have the rare ability to acknowledge not just their own emotions, but also the emotions of others. They use this information to engage the people around them and bring everyone together.

As the author of “Emotional Intelligence Game Changers: 101 Ways to Win at Life & Work,” I’ve spent 20 years studying the habits of emotionally intelligent people. To grow and develop meaningful relationships, you have to communicate and read body language effectively.

Here are eight things people with high emotional intelligence never do when talking to others:

1. They don’t focus just on themselves.

Everyone appreciates being acknowledged for something they did well and have pride in.

Doing this with sincerity ensures that you will be remembered in a positive light — putting you in a category above all the people who haven’t seemed to notice.

2. They don’t force their opinions onto others.

When you argue with someone or make them feel coerced, they will naturally become defensive and erect barriers. This will work against your persuasive efforts.

Instead, allow the other person to feel that they are in control of the situation by inviting them to talk while you actively listen.

3. They don’t say, “It’s not my responsibility.”

Exceptional employees will not walk past a problem or something they could help with just because it’s not in their job description.

They’re always willing to share their time and knowledge. They view their role as a key part of larger whole and often look for ways to contribute to the organization.

4. They don’t waste their time with just anybody.

Mentally tough and self-aware people hang out with other positive-thinking individuals with whom they share common goals and aspirations. They support one another and celebrate each other’s achievements.

Negative people, on the other hand, will only drain your energy. When you’re around them, do your best to tune out the noise and limit your interaction.

5. They don’t let anything distract them when others are speaking.

Have you ever spoken with someone who was distracted, glancing at other people in a crowd, or checking their watch while you were speaking? You likely felt you were not important to that person.

Make others aware that you are focused by facing them squarely, smiling and making eye contact.

6. They don’t forget the little details.

When you meet someone for the first time, repeat their name and sprinkle it throughout the conversation.

Remember things that are important, such as the names of their partner, children, pets or favorite vacation spots. By doing so and mentioning them at appropriate times the next time you see them, you’ll stand out.

As your relationship deepens, consider taking note of important dates (e.g. their birthday or anniversary), and then send cards or call on those dates.

7. They stay away from offensive or tasteless jokes.

Simply put, if there is any possibility that someone may find a joke offensive, don’t say it. It is one of the quickest ways to turn people off, because it indicates a huge deficit of awareness and sensitivity.

8. They don’t do all the talking.

Emotionally intelligent people try to listen and discern more about a situation.

They ask questions that allow the other person an opportunity to better express themselves and understand how he or she is acting and feeling.

Your questions might open a pathway for more meaningful conversation and resolution.

** Harvey Deutschendorf is an emotional intelligence researcher and author of “Emotional Intelligence Game Changers: 101 Simple Ways to Win at Work & Life.” He has worked in the field of EQ for more than 20 years and is an active member of the ManKind Project and Toastmasters. 

CNBC

Service Chiefs on Tuesday in Abuja appeared before the House of Representatives at plenary on a sectoral debate for MDAs, recounting activities aimed at combating the surging insecurity challenges in the country.

Those present included the Chief of Defense Staff, Christopher Musa; Chief of Army Staff, Taoreed Lagbaja; and Chief of Naval Staff, Emmanuel Ogala.

Others were the Chief of Air Staff, Hassan Abubakar, and the Inspector General of Police, Kayode Egbetokun.

In his submission, Chief of Defence Staff (CDS), Musa blamed the judiciary for releasing arrested Boko Haram suspects after being arrested by the military.

“I have been in the Northeast; there were a lot of Boko Haram elements that have been captured. We have kept them for five/six years. We the armed forces can arrest but cannot prosecute.

“Some of them have been found wanting, but no prosecution.

“We are keeping them for this lengthy period, everyone is accusing the armed forces in keeping them against their human rights, but we cannot prosecute.

“Another aspect of the judiciary is that you use all your efforts to make an arrest, you hand them over, and before you enter your vehicle, the man has been released on bail.

“Now you have risked yourself in doing that; by the time he is released, he goes to tell the people the person that arrested him. Now your family members or you are at risk,” Musa disclosed.

He said it was getting to a state where the security forces would not want to make any effort.

”We have the issue in the South-south, the last ship that was arrested, was arrested 10 years ago; the ship went and changed its name, changed its colour and came back again.

”By the time they handed over the ship and before you know it, it is released.” He said that this is an area that must be looked into.

“We must have a special court to look into it. That is why we arrest and destroy them because the longer we keep them, it becomes a problem,” said the CDS.

Musa said they often come under pressure to release them.

He said that at the moment, about 140,000 terrorists have surrendered and are awaiting disarmament, assuring that there is no single territory currently being occupied by Boko Haram insurgents.

Musa said activities of Simon Ekpa, spokesperson of the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) currently hiding in Finland, were doing a lot of damage to the Southeast region of the country.

He alleged that Finland was protecting Ekpa, adding that there is a need for the government to engage the government of Finland and possibly invite its ambassador to Nigeria.

Musa said that while the military and other security agencies in the country were doing their very best to ensure peace in the Southeast region, comments and activities of Ekpa were sabotaging such efforts.

Lagbaja, highlighted some of the challenges facing the Nigerian Army, which include funding, logistics, and manpower.

On his part, Abubakar, said the major challenges facing the Nigerian Air Force in the conduct of air operations include the rising cost of aviation fuel.

Others include delay in funding release, targeting complexity, porous borders and manpower disposition.

Ogalla, urged the House of Representatives to ensure adequate appropriations for the service to acquire resources to enable it to achieve its mandate.

Ogalla said the resources were basically required in terms of fleet renewal, aircraft and support facilities.

“The Navy is just about 30,000 for now. We are making efforts to expand the size of the navy and train them adequately to be able to meet its objectives.

“With adequate support, we should be able to tackle activities of oil theft, pipeline vandalism and illegal refineries, irrespective of the weather. “

Speaker of the House of Representatives, Tajudeen Abbas, had earlier said they are focusing on security given the unprecedented challenges of the past decade.

Abbas said that over the last few years, the country has made significant progress in tackling insecurity through improved investment by the federal government.

He commended the gallantry and professionalism of servicemen and women while saluting the courage of the armed forces and law enforcement personnel.

The speaker emphasised that an appearance in person by all invited heads of MDAs was required throughout this sectoral briefing.

He added that the House would not accept proxy representation for any reason whatsoever, adding that notices were sent well in advance to forestall any excuses.

NAN

Former President Olusegun Obasanjo has faulted verdicts of the Nigerians judges on the electoral disputes, saying three to five judges should not overturn decisions made by millions of voters during an election.

Obasanjo described the powers vested in the hands of a few judges as “totally unacceptable.”

The former President spoke in wake of the ongoing judgements of the Court of Appeal on the electoral disputes arising from 2023 elections in Nigeria.

Only last week, three governors were sacked in separate judgements delivered by the judges of the Court of Appeal.

The affected governors are, Dauda Lawal of Zamfara State, Abba Yusuf in Kano, and Caleb Mutfwang of Plateau State.

The decisions have triggered reactions, earning the judiciary more knocks than kudos.

Speaking at the high-level consultation on Rethinking Western Liberal Democracy in Africa held at Green Resort Legacy, Olusegun Obasanjo Presidential Library, Abeokuta, Ogun State, Obasanjo faulted what he labelled “cathedral pronouncements” by the judges.

Obasanjo said “I believe whatever form of democracy we have or whatever system of government we have, three or four men in the judiciary should not be able to overturn the decisions of millions that have voted. Now, we have to find a way to handle that. I don’t know what the way will be but, for me, I think it’s totally unacceptable that millions (of votes), maybe 10m on one side, maybe 9million on the other side. Then, you have five people sitting down, three of them agree, two disagree. And you come up and make cathedral pronouncements that cannot be changed, I believe that should not be accepted.

“How do we do it? I don’t know. But whatever form of democracy we have, we should look at how to handle this. If you say ‘go again for election,’ then, what happened to the previous election? I don’t know.

“So, I personally feel strongly about it. It does not matter what you say about the judiciary, but in fact only five people or seven will sit down. If they are five, three may agree, two may not agree, and the decision of three will be final. All that you have done comes to the decision of three or decision of four.”

Daily Trust

Nigerian and German companies on Tuesday signed two accords in Berlin that include a $500 million renewable energy pact and a gas export deal, further strengthening economic ties between the two nations, a presidential spokesperson said.

Union Bank of Nigeria and Germany's DWS Group signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) on renewable energy. The agreement seeks to harness $500 million in investment in renewable energy projects across Nigeria, mostly in rural communities, spokesperson Ajuri Ngelale said in a statement.

A second MoU on gas export partnership was agreed between Riverside LNG of Nigeria and Germany's Johannes Schuetze Energy Import AG. Under the accord, Nigeria will supply 850,000 tons of natural gas to Germany annually which is expected to rise to 1.2 million. The first deliveries will be in 2026, Ngelale said.

The deal will help process about 50 million cubic feet per day of natural gas that otherwise would have flared.

Nigeria holds Africa's largest gas reserves of more than 200 trillion cubic feet, but flares, or burns off, about 300 million cubic feet daily due to inadequate processing facilities.

President Bola Tinubu, who is attending the G20 Compact with Africa conference in Berlin, welcomed the deals, Ngelale said.

On Monday German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said Germany will invest 4 billion euros in green energy projects in Africa until 2030, noting these could in turn help Europe's largest economy achieve its own transition to carbon neutrality.

Germany will need to import large quantities of green hydrogen going forward, including from Africa, if it is to achieve its goal of net zero emissions by 2045, he said at a German-African business forum in Berlin.

The forum preceded the G20 Compact with Africa summit that aims to drum up investment in the world's poorest but fast-growing continent by coordinating the development agendas of reform-minded countries and identifying business opportunities.

Reuters

Federal government has revoked 1,633 mining licenses due to default in payment of stipulated service fees by operators.

In a statement on Tuesday, Dele Alake, minister of solid minerals development, said the revocation became necessary after the expiration of a 30-day notice to defaulters — as stipulated by sections 11 and 12 of the Nigerian Mineral Mining Act (NMMA), 2007.

Alake, in the statement issued by Segun Tomori, special assistant on media to the minister, said the ministry began the process of revoking 2,213 titles on October 4, 2023.

“In compliance with the law, the Mining Cadastral Office (MCO) on October 4, 2023 began the process of revoking 2,213 titles,” he said.

“These included 795 Exploration titles, 956 Small Scale Mining Licences, 364 Quarry licences, and 98 Mining Leases. These were published in the Federal Government Gazette Number 178, Volume 110 of October 10, 2023 with the notice of revocation for defaulting in the payment of Annual Service Fee.

“The mandatory 30 days expired on November 10, 2023. Only 580 title holders responded by settling their indebtedness.

“With this development, the MCO recommended the revocation of 1, 633 mineral titles as follows: Exploration Licence, 536; Quarry Licence, 279; Small Scale Mining Licence, 787 and Mining Lease, 31.

“In line with the powers conferred on me by the NMMA 2007, Section 5 (a), I have approved the revocation of the 1,633 titles.

“I hereby warn the previous holders of these titles to leave the relevant cadaster with immediate effect as security agencies shall work with the Mines Inspectorate of the Ministry to apprehend any defaulter found on any of the areas where titles have been revoked.”

Alske said efforts are ongoing to sanction other operators defaulting in payment of royalties, taxes amongst others.

According to the minister, revoking the licences of operators shortchanging government is an ongoing process which he said will create space for serious prospective investors to come on stream.

Addressing illegal mining in the country, Alake read the riot act to culprits, saying that their days are numbered.

Alake said illegal miners will be dealt with by the government should they continue their unauthorised mining activities.

He said President Bola Tinubu is committed to sanitising the mining sector.

On the issue of insecurity, Alake said plans for the establishment of mine police are underway.

The minister said the military will conduct initial clearance operations to pave the way for the deployment of the mine police.

The Cable

Israeli government debates deal for release of Gaza hostages, truce

Israel's government met into the early hours of Wednesday to consider a deal for Palestinian Hamas militants to free some hostages in Gaza in exchange for a multi-day truce and the release of a greater number of Palestinian prisoners in Israel.

Officials from Qatar, which has been mediating negotiations, as well as the U.S., Israel and Hamas have for days been saying a deal was imminent.

Qatar Foreign Ministry spokesperson Majed Al-Ansari said the proposal on a hostage release deal was delivered to Israel in the early hours of Tuesday.

"The State of Qatar is awaiting the result of the Israeli government's vote on the proposal," he said.

Before gathering with his full government, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met on Tuesday with his war cabinet and wider national security cabinet over the deal. Hamas is believed to be holding more than 200 hostages, taken when its fighters surged into Israel on Oct. 7, killing 1,200 people, according to Israeli tallies.

The Israeli prime minister said the intervention of U.S. President Joe Biden had helped to improve the tentative agreement so that it included more hostages and fewer concessions.

But Netanyahu said Israel's broader mission had not changed.

"We are at war and we will continue the war until we achieve all our goals. To destroy Hamas, return all our hostages and ensure that no entity in Gaza can threaten Israel," he said in a recorded message at the start of the latest government meeting.

If agreed, the accord would see the first truce of a war in which Israeli bombardments have flattened swathes of Hamas-ruled Gaza, killed 13,300 civilians in the tiny densely populated enclave and left about two-thirds of its 2.3 million people homeless, according to authorities in Gaza.

A U.S. official briefed on the discussions said the deal would include 50 hostages taken from Israel, mostly women and children, in exchange for 150 Palestinian prisoners and a pause in the fighting of four or five days.

The pause would also allow for humanitarian aid into Gaza.

Israeli media including Channel 12 news said that if the deal was approved, the first release of hostages was expected on Thursday. Implementing the deal must wait for 24 hours to give Israeli citizens the chance to ask the Supreme Court to block the release of Palestinian prisoners, reports said.

Hamas has to date released only four captives: U.S. citizens Judith Raanan, 59, and her daughter, Natalie Raanan, 17, on Oct. 20, citing "humanitarian reasons," and Israeli women Nurit Cooper, 79, and Yocheved Lifshitz, 85, on Oct. 23.

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The armed wing of the Palestinian militant group Islamic Jihad, which participated in the Oct. 7 raid with Hamas, said late on Tuesday that one of the Israeli hostages it has held since the Oct. 7 attacks on Israel had died.

"We previously expressed our willingness to release her for humanitarian reasons, but the enemy was stalling and this led to her death," Al Quds Brigades said on its Telegram channel.

HOSPITAL ORDERED TO EVACUATE

As attention focused on the hostage release deal, fighting on the ground raged on. Mounir Al-Barsh, director-general of Gaza's health ministry, told Al Jazeera TV that the Israeli military ordered the evacuation of the Indonesian Hospital in Gaza City. Israel said militants were operating from the facility and threatened to act against them within four hours, he said.

Hospitals, including Gaza's biggest Al Shifa, have been rendered virtually inoperable by the conflict and shortages of critical supplies. Israel claims that Hamas conceals military command posts and fighters within them, a claim that Hamas and hospital staff deny.

On Tuesday, Israel also said its forces had encircled the Jabalia refugee camp, a major urban flashpoint and Hamas militant stronghold.

According to the United Nations, most Palestinians in Gaza are registered as refugees because they or their ancestors were displaced by the 1948 war of Israel's creation.

The Palestinian news agency WAFA said 33 people were killed and dozens wounded in an Israeli air strike on part of Jabalia, a congested urban extension of Gaza City where Hamas has been battling advancing Israeli armoured forces.

In southern Gaza, Hamas-affiliated media said 10 people were killed and 22 injured by an Israeli air strike on an apartment in the city of Khan Younis.

Reuters could not immediately verify the accounts of fighting on either side.

Reuters

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

Ukraine has lost over 13,000 troops this month – Moscow

Ukraine has lost over 13,700 troops and approximately 1,800 tanks and other heavy weaponry so far this month, Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu told his government colleagues on Tuesday during a ministerial meeting.

Russian forces have been actively thwarting Kiev’s attempts to breach their defensive lines and continue to reduce Ukraine’s military capacity, the senior official said. He claimed that Ukrainian soldiers were surrendering in droves after realizing the futility of their counteroffensive.

The minister issued his last assessment of Ukrainian casualties in late October, when he said they had surpassed 90,000 since the start of Kiev’s ill-fated counteroffensive in early July. During this week’s meeting, Shoigu described the cost paid by Ukrainian soldiers in the conflict as “colossal.”

Valery Zaluzhny, Ukraine’s top general, previously said that the conflict with Russia had reached a “stalemate” and that his armed forces would likely not achieve a breakthrough in the confrontation anytime soon. President Vladimir Zelensky has disputed the assessment, claiming that progress was still being made in his nation’s attempt to return Ukraine to its pre-2014 borders.

On Monday, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin visited Kiev to meet Zelensky and announce Washington’s latest package of military assistance, worth some $100 million. The Pentagon, however, has warned that it is running out of money authorized by Congress to be spent on Ukraine.

The funding has become contentious on Capitol Hill; the conservative wing of the Republican party opposes further aid. Critics of the White House’s pledge to support Kiev for “as long as it takes” have complained about a lack of transparency and argued that the US has more important priorities.

Some GOP lawmakers have described the Zelensky government as a problematic recipient of aid, in light of a string of graft scandals this year, including in the Ukrainian Defense Ministry. 

On Tuesday, the Ukrainian leader welcomed more foreign dignitaries in the capital, including German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, European Council President Charles Michel and Moldovan President Maia Sandu. The country is commemorating the 10th anniversary of what Kiev calls the “Revolution of Dignity,” the mass protests and armed overthrow of Ukraine’s democratically-elected government that ultimately led to the current confrontation with Russia.

Moscow has described the Ukraine conflict as part of a US-led proxy war against Russia, in which Ukrainians are used as “cannon fodder.” Anatoly Antonov, Moscow’s ambassador to Washington, called the latest package of aid “a sedative pill” for the Zelensky government, as it edges closer to complete collapse.

WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Ukraine's tank repairmen deal with damage inflicted by Russian drones, artillery and mines

Reuters) - In a nondescript warehouse in the eastern Ukrainian region of Kharkiv, a crew of repairmen work tirelessly to fix Ukrainian tanks damaged by Russia's vast arsenal of mines, drones and artillery.

“The most common causes why vehicles are brought here are because they either drove over an enemy mine or came under artillery shelling,” said 30-year-old Oleksandr Fedorenko, the deputy head of weaponry of the 4th Tank Brigade.

Another problem are Lancets, the Russian kamikaze drones that Ukrainian soldiers say has been a menace on the battlefield this year.

“We get vehicles that were hit by Lancet or by unmanned guided rockets. It happens often. On average there are five to ten vehicles brought in here each month,” Fedorenko said.

Throughout the war, hundreds of videos online show Ukrainian and Russian tanks being struck by shells or drones, or being incapacitated by landmines. Both sides have lost significant amounts of machinery.

Although exact numbers are kept secret, Ukraine started the war with fewer tanks than Russia, which invaded 21 months ago and has a vast military-industrial complex.

"We have no time to relax, we understand very well the enemy's forces by far exceed ours," Fedorenko said.

In his November 7, 2023 New York Times newsletter, the economist Paul Krugman asks a good, albeit belated, question: Why did so many economists get the inflation outlook wrong? After all, the near-consensus among mainstream economists in recent years was that inflation would persist – and even accelerate – and that this justified substantial interest-rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve. Yet the quasi-inflation of 2021-22 proved transitory.

Krugman poses his question with impeccable diplomacy, professing “respect” for three authors of a September 2022 paper published by the Brookings Institution (which was then promoted by Harvard University’s Jason Furman) projecting that it would take at least two years of unemployment at 6.5% to bring inflation back to the Fed’s self-imposed 2% target. But inflation had already peaked before the Brookings paper appeared, and long before the Fed’s rate hikes might have been felt. Over the next year, inflation petered out, even as unemployment remained below 4%. “Team Transitory” – which once briefly included US Secretary of the Treasury Janet L. Yellen – endured two years of derision, but it was correct all along.

Krugman rightly focuses on the illogic of certain inflation “pessimists,” who “came up with new, completely unrelated justifications” for their contention that inflation would “remain stubbornly high” long after the 2021 fiscal stimulus packages had been absorbed. Since these pessimists encountered very little mainstream dissent, their doomsaying continued to dominate the discourse well into 2023.

Krugman tactfully avoids naming Lawrence H. Summers, whose “justifications” for inflation pessimism included supposedly excessive “savings,” the Fed’s “debt purchases” and forecasts of “essentially zero interest rates,” and “soaring stock and real estate prices.” Yet, aside from his worries about fiscal stimulus, this was all nonsense. As I pointed out at the time, savings cannot cause inflation, and a technical forecast has no causal power.

Adopting the persona of a naïf, Krugman then suggests that it was “almost as if economists were looking for reasons to be pessimistic.” A paragon of politesse, he declines to tell us what those reasons might have been. But two always stood out. The first was fear: if American workers retained a financial cushion from the Covid-19 aid packages, they might be “harder to boss around.” The second reason concerned power: high interest rates tend to support the dollar internationally.

Since then, various Fed officials have acknowledged both motives many times. For example, an obsession with wages permeates all of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speeches, and he has openly stated his commitment to maintaining a strong dollar. It is no surprise that mainstream economists endorse – indeed, craft – the same arguments.

But I, too, was being polite, because I omitted a third possibility: namely, that some mainstream economists might call for high interest rates to curry favor with bankers, who enjoy larger profit margins when rates are high (especially now that the Fed pays interest on bank reserves directly). A strong public stance on the matter could generate hefty speaking fees, consulting contracts, or a path to high public office. As Krugman concludes, “I’d like to see some hard thinking about how so many of my colleagues got this story so wrong and maybe even a bit of introspection about their motivations.”

That would be nice, but let’s not hold our breath. Instead, let’s turn to a larger issue. Krugman notes that all the economists he mentions “are very much part of the economics profession’s mainstream.” He means this as a compliment; yet, as Hamlet says, “there’s the rub.” Consider just how often mainstream economists get things wrong – not only small things, but very big ones. Remember their famous failure to foresee the 2007-09 financial crisis, or the woefully ill-advised turn to austerity in 2010? What about the predictably perverse effect of sanctions on Russia? The misdiagnosis of inflation in 2021-22 was merely the latest episode in a long-running series of failures.

The question we should be asking, then, is whether there is something wrong with mainstream economics. Mainstream economists should perhaps re-examine their core beliefs, or maybe we need a new “mainstream” altogether.

To be sure, Krugman notes that “one strand of argument involved parallels with the inflation of the 1970s.” But this only grazes the problem. The real issue is that most of today’s leading mainstream economists were trained in the 1970s, and their worldview – not just the facts, but the theory – was fixed back then. On macroeconomic issues such as inflation, the influences of general equilibrium theory, inflation-unemployment trade-offs, and monetarism remain strong. The legacies of Kenneth Arrow, Paul Samuelson, Robert Solow, and Milton Friedman live on.

That earlier generation’s project was partly scientific, partly political. As “social scientists,” they believed in the power of mathematics, which they borrowed from the celestial mechanics of previous centuries. Politically, they sought to defend capitalism against the Soviet challenge during the Cold War. By uniting these objectives, they fashioned the market-oriented mathematical straitjacket in which today’s mainstream economists were raised – and from which they cannot escape. Yesterday’s Wunderkinder – including Summers and Krugman – are today’s tired old men.

Notably, Krugman’s reflection on disinflation makes no mention of the economists who did not misdiagnose things, including Isabella M. Weber of the University of Massachusetts Amherst, and L. Randall Wray and Yeva Nersisyan of the Levy Institute. They correctly predicted the disinflation back in March 2022.

But economists with better ideas never get citations by name, let alone job offers from so-called top departments, mainly because so many members of the old guard want to preserve the academic, political, and media monopolies they have held since the 1970s. That means purging new ideas and belittling the people who advance them. By offering such a polite, gentle critique of his “colleagues” after their latest failure, Krugman is being diplomatic to a fault.

Project Syndicate