In a bid to address the pressing issue of widespread hunger in Nigeria, the Bola Tinubu-led federal government has recently announced a controversial policy to import food. While the intention to provide immediate relief is commendable, this approach may prove to be a double-edged sword, potentially causing more harm than good in the long run.

The government's plan includes suspending duties, tariffs, and taxes on the importation of essential food commodities such as maize, husked brown rice, wheat, and cowpeas for 150 days. Additionally, the government intends to import 250,000 metric tons each of wheat and maize. These measures, while seemingly providing a quick solution to food shortages, raise serious concerns about their long-term impact on Nigeria's agricultural sector and economy.

Akinwumi Adesina, President of the African Development Bank Group, has voiced strong opposition to this policy, warning that it could "destroy Nigeria's agriculture." His concerns are well-founded and highlight several critical issues:

Firstly, the massive influx of imported food threatens to undermine local agricultural production. Nigerian farmers, who have been working tirelessly to increase domestic food supply, may find themselves unable to compete with cheaper imported goods. This could lead to a significant setback in the country's efforts to achieve food self-sufficiency and may discourage further investment in the agricultural sector.

Secondly, the policy is likely to exert additional pressure on the already struggling Naira. Increased demand for foreign currency to finance these imports will likely lead to further devaluation of the national currency, exacerbating Nigeria's economic challenges.

Moreover, the low value of the Naira relative to the currencies of neighboring countries presents another risk. There is a high likelihood that a substantial portion of the duty-free imported food will be smuggled across borders, mirroring the fate of subsidized petroleum products. This not only defeats the purpose of addressing domestic food shortages but also results in a loss of potential revenue for the government.

Instead of relying on imports, the government should focus on addressing the root causes of food insecurity in Nigeria. Priority should be given to tackling the security issues that hinder farmers from producing at full capacity. Efforts should be made to stabilize the value of the Naira and provide essential agricultural inputs and machinery to boost local production.

Furthermore, the government's plans to ramp up production for the 2024/2025 farming cycle, including support for smallholder farmers, agricultural mechanization, and irrigation improvements, are steps in the right direction.

While the immediate need to address hunger is undeniable, it is crucial that short-term measures do not compromise long-term food security and economic stability. As Adesina rightly pointed out, "Nigeria cannot import its way out of food insecurity." The nation must strive to feed itself with pride, focusing on boosting local production, creating jobs, and reducing dependence on foreign imports.

In conclusion, while the government's intentions are noble, the food importation policy risks undermining Nigeria's agricultural sector and economic stability. A more balanced approach that prioritizes long-term sustainability over short-term relief is essential. Only by fostering domestic production and addressing underlying issues can Nigeria truly achieve lasting food security and economic resilience.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

Nigeria and the United Arab Emirates reached an agreement allowing for the resumption of travel between the two countries, Nigeria's information minister said on Monday.

The UAE stopped issuing visas to Nigerians in 2022 after Dubai's Emirates Airline suspended flights between the countries due to an inability to repatriate funds from Nigeria.

Nigeria's central bank has since cleared a backlog of around $137 million in foreign exchange owed to international airlines.

Information Minister Mohammed Idris said the deal includes the resumption of visa issuance to Nigerian passport holders for travel to the UAE, effective from Monday.

"This agreement includes updated controls and conditions to facilitate obtaining a UAE visa," Idris said in a statement.

In May, Emirates said it would resume flight schedules to Nigeria in October, ending a nearly two-year halt to flights.

Reuters

Controversial Islamic cleric Ahmad Gumi has urged Nigerians to engage in peaceful protests as a means of conveying their grievances to the government, emphasising that protests are a crucial tool for driving change.

"Politicians are very stubborn, it is mass protests that only disturb them," he said.

Addressing concerns over comparisons with past protests in countries like Sudan, Lebanon, and Liberia, Gumi highlighted Nigeria's unique diversity. 

"In Sudan and Liberia, the conflicts were like family feuds, which are very dangerous. But Nigeria is different, with diverse ethnicities, religions, cultures, tribes, and sects," he explained, noting internal tensions even within religious sects like the Izala in Nigeria.

Gumi expressed optimism that peaceful protests would convey the public's demand for good governance and development. 

"Protest is the only language the government understands," he asserted, urging authorities to heed the calls for reform and improvement.

Highlighting past political actions, Sheik Gumi criticised the government's response to protests, contrasting it with previous protests led by current officials. 

"In 2015, Muhammadu Buhari and other top All Progressives Congress (APC) officials came out to protest that the previous government had spoiled Nigeria. Then, protest was legal but now it's illegal," he pointed out, lamenting the inconsistency in how protests are viewed and treated.

"God willing, the protest will proceed peacefully, and the government must understand and respond positively to the language of protest," Gumi concluded, calling for constructive dialogue and meaningful reforms for the benefit of all Nigerians.

Gumi's comments coincide with growing discontent in northern Nigeria, where some people are planning protests to voice their concerns about the economic situation, including rising inflation and poverty, under President Bola Tinubu's administration. 

Sahara Reporters

Kenya braced for more anti-government protests as talks proposed by President William Ruto to help end the nation’s political crisis appeared to stall.

Activists have called for demonstrations across the East African nation on Tuesday over the government’s failure to prosecute security forces suspected of killing at least 41 people protesting against plans to raise taxes over the past month. Ruto announced last week that a so-called national dialogue would begin on Monday to defuse tensions in the country.

Kenya’s main opposition Orange Democratic Movement said it’s unclear about when the talks — which seek to bring together political parties, civil society groups and professional associations — will take place.

“We haven’t received any invitation,” ODM Secretary-General Edwin Sifuna said by phone. “When called, we’ll go because we are keen on getting broad-based reforms.”

A spokesperson for the presidency said parliamentary leaders were in charge of the planned talks. National Assembly majority leader Kimani Ichung’wah didn’t respond to request for comment.

Protests began in Kenya in mid-June over Ruto’s plans to increase taxes on everything from bread to diapers to raise more than $2 billion the government needs to reduce its budget shortfall. The demonstrations forced Ruto to scrap the proposal. Last week, he took the drastic step of firing almost all of the members of his cabinet in a bid to address public anger of its performance.

As a result of the decision to scrap the revenue-raising measures, the government expects its budget deficit to widen to 3.6% of gross domestic product in the current fiscal year, compared with a previous projection of 3.3%. Moody’s Ratings last week downgraded Kenya’s rating by a step to Caa1, or seven notches into junk, in a sign of the country’s worsening fiscal plight.

Ruto on Saturday vowed to hold to account those responsible for killings in the country. On Monday, he called on the Ford Foundation, a private entity that promotes civic engagement, to “explain its role in the recent protests.”

The foundation didn’t respond to an emailed request for comment.

Bloomberg

Kidnappers have reportedly abducted five residents of Yangoji in the Kwali area council of the Federal Capital Territory, shooting a chieftain of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Musa Majaga.

A resident of Yangoji simply identified as Abdullahi, said the incident happened on Monday, around 12:23 am when the kidnappers invaded the APC chieftain’s house.

He said the kidnappers destroyed the burglary windows of the Majaga’s house, entered the room and shot him. They were said to have abducted two of his children.

“After they had picked two of his children, they went into another apartment and abducted three other neighbours,” he said.

A vigilante member, who spoke to our reporter during a visit to the area on Monday, said the kidnappers took advantage of lack of cartridges in vigilantes’ guns.

“You know the kidnappers took advantage after they got information that vigilantes were short of cartridges. They then struck and abducted five people. We have not witnessed any attack by kidnappers in the past five months here in Yangoji,” he said.

He said the APC chieftain, who was shot on the leg, had been taken to a private hospital at Gwagwalada for treatment.

The spokesman of the FCT Police Command, Adeh Josephine, asked our reporter to give her time to find out about the incident. She was yet to get back as of the time of filing this report.

Daily Trust

The driver and 18 passengers of a Port Harcourt-bound Akwa Ibom State Transport Corporation bus were on Wednesday, last week, abducted by yet-to-be-identified gunmen.

The incident, our correspondent gathered, occurred along the Azumini boundary between Akwa Ibom and Abia states.

It was gathered that the bus had left its Uyo terminal passing through Iwukem in the Etim Local Council Area before the passengers were intercepted by their abductors in the Azumini area of the road.

A source who pleaded not to be mentioned told our correspondent that the gunmen stopped the bus driver after shooting into the air while others came out from the bush and joined in the shooting spree.

The source added that all the passengers were ordered to come out of the vehicle or be killed if they did not oblige.

“The driver was the first person to come down. Other passengers were ordered to follow suit immediately. The kidnappers moved all of them to the bush and escaped with them. The whereabouts of the passengers are not known for now,” the source said.

The Akwa Ibom State Police Public Relations Officer, Timfon John, who confirmed the incident while speaking with journalists on Monday, said the police were still monitoring the situation.

“That incident happened along the Azumini area of the road after the Etim Ekpo Local Government Area. All I can say is that the police are still monitoring the situation now,” the PPRO said.

Punch

Israel allows UN to bring in more equipment amid Gaza lawlessness

The United Nations said on Monday that it will start bringing in more armored vehicles and personal protection equipment for its humanitarian aid operations in the Gaza Strip after receiving approval from Israeli authorities.

The approval was in response to a U.N. letter sent to Israel last month on safety and security in Gaza, said Scott Anderson, deputy humanitarian coordinator for the Occupied Palestinian Territory, as the war between Israel and Palestinian militants Hamas enters its tenth month and law and order has broken down.

The U.N. has long complained of obstacles to getting aid into Gaza - Israel inspects and approves all trucks - and says it is also struggling to distribute aid amid "total lawlessness" within the enclave of 2.3 million people, where a global hunger monitor last month said there is a high risk of famine.

Anderson said the U.N. was due to start bringing more armored vehicles and protection equipment into Gaza on Tuesday.

"Some communications equipment has also been approved," he told reporters, like hand-held radios, but added that discussions are still continuing on a U.N. request for stable internet access.

The U.N. has said it wants communications that did not rely on cell phone towers because they were not reliable. However, Israeli authorities have security concerns about what Hamas could do if it accessed satellite internet service.

'CRIME FAMILIES'

Anderson said the U.N. needed to bring in aid in the right quantity and quality, but several factors "continue to stand in our way." He listed problems including restrictions on movement, aid worker safety, unpredictable working hours, communications challenges and a lack of fuel.

"And we've seen a complete breakdown of law and order and we've seen essentially what are crime families preventing the free movement of aid into Gaza to assist people," he said.

"The truck drivers that we use have been regularly threatened or assaulted ... they've become less and less willing, understandably, to move assistance from the border crossings to our warehouses and then onto people that are in need," Anderson said.

He said the U.N. was getting between 25 and 70 aid trucks a day into northern Gaza, but there was no commercial access.

Anderson said in southern Gaza "we've been barely able to hit 100 trucks on a good day over the last week because of law and order problems," but that commercial deliveries were doing a little better "but they pay essentially protection money to the families in the south and they also have armed guards."

Aid officials say about 600 trucks of humanitarian and commercial supplies are needed in Gaza daily to meet the needs of the population.

He said the U.N. was "in talks with everybody about trying to get some sort of police force established" and in the meantime was working with the families that are hindering aid deliveries to try and address the problem.

"It's a few families that are trying to take advantage of this opportunity and that's why I'm confident if we get police back at work that they can address the issue," Anderson said.

Reuters

WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Ukraine's mobilisation campaign picks up despite faltering enthusiasm

Seeing the military patrol handing out call-up papers on the outskirts of Kyiv, one man slipped into a nearby store. Another refused to even stop for the officers. Others, however, quietly obliged.

While men may be coming round to Ukraine's ramped-up mobilisation drive to replenish troop numbers more than 28 months since Russia's invasion, they are less eager to fight than before, said a draft officer, who uses the call sign "Fantomas".

"Now, as far as I know, most of the queues (at draft offices) are people who want to obtain some sort of exemption (from fighting)," said the 36-year-old, who was accompanied by Reuters on a recent draft patrol in the Ukrainian capital.

The combat veteran is on the front lines of the effort to redouble the draft despite waning public enthusiasm for wartime service as military analysts describe regenerating troop manpower as one of Kyiv's central battlefield challenges.

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy lowered the draft age to 25 from 27 in April and signed off on an overhaul of the mobilisation process that entered force in May, obliging men under 60 to renew their personal data at draft offices or online.

Though recruitment numbers remain shrouded in wartime secrecy, some political and military officials have said the changes, including a campaignto increase voluntary recruitment, have got the mobilisation effort back on track after two months.

The Ukrainian military told Reuters in a written statement that the conscription rate had more than doubled in May and June compared to the previous two months, without providing the figures.

Spokesperson Bohdan Senyk described that as a "positive trend". The average age of a mobilised soldier remained unchanged at around 40.

DEMOBILISATION

Strengthened by long-delayed Western aid, Ukraine's forces have struggled for months to hold the line against Russian troops inching forward in the east.

Many weary troops are desperate to be replaced after more than two years of virtually non-stop service with no clarity on when they will be demobilized from an armed forces of around 1 million.

Asked about a figure of 200,000 additional troops cited in a German newspaper, Roman Kostenko, secretary of parliament's national defence committee estimated that the military could enlist that many by the year's end if the process continued at its current pace.

That, he said, could allow Ukraine to consider legislation to demobilize some troops, though the interior minister warned doing so without replacing a proportional share of them could weaken the front.

Mathieu Boulègue, a defence analyst for the Washington-based Center for European Policy Analysis, said the 200,000 estimate was encouraging but that the more critical task would be training them and distributing them to the front correctly.

Ukraine needs to "invest human capital smartly and efficiently where it is needed. Because in as much as you can get anyone to drive a truck or clean toilets, you can't get effective warfighters that easily," he said.

Russia, meanwhile, is recruiting around 30,000 troops per month for its war effort while suffering "very high" losses, a senior NATO official said on Tuesday. He added that Moscow lacked the munitions and troops to start a major offensive.

PUBLIC MISGIVINGS

Since the mobilisation overhaul, some draft offices have struggled to cope with the influx of men who have come to register or update their data by the July 16 deadline.

"More people are coming than we are able to accept," said a deputy head of the draft office where Fantomas works. "Sometimes processing drags on to 1 o'clock at night."

The official, who requested anonymity, echoed Fantomas and said a "very, very big" portion of men were seeking exemptions, though he insisted things were on track.

"We're fulfilling our assigned tasks. I wouldn't say to 100%, but not bad."

Reports of draft corruption and social media footage of scuffles between recruiters and citizens soured the public mood in the lead-up to the springtime rule changes.

In an April survey commissioned by public broadcaster Suspilne, around 50% of Ukrainians said they believed mobilisation was going poorly, and 60% said they had a negative perception of draft offices.

Facing public opposition, lawmakers stopped short of pushing through more severe sanctions against draft-dodgers as part of the overhaul.

Fantomas, who was wounded in eastern Ukraine last year, said 70% of his interactions with people he approaches on the street are positive.

He and other military officials have said conflicts such as those captured on film are rare, often torn out of context and exploited by pro-Russian accounts to discredit recruiters, but have been successful in blunting enthusiasm.

He admitted he had once been attacked on patrol, but said he refused to fight back for fear of being caught on camera.

"The one part where I would be defending myself would make it into a video, and only that would be made to go viral."

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

Russian air defenses down Ukrainian MiG-29 fighter jet, 36 UAVs over past day

Russian air defense forces shot down a Ukrainian MiG-29 fighter jet and 36 unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) over the past day in the special military operation in Ukraine, Russia’s Defense Ministry reported on Monday.

"Air defense capabilities shot down a Ukrainian Air Force MiG-29 aircraft, 36 unmanned aerial vehicles and five rockets of the US-made HIMARS multiple launch rocket system," the ministry said in a statement.

Russia’s Battlegroup North strikes four Ukrainian brigades in Kharkov area over past day

Russia’s Battlegroup North repelled a Ukrainian army attack and inflicted casualties on four enemy brigades in the Kharkov area over the past day, the ministry reported.

"Battlegroup North units inflicted damage on manpower and equipment of the Ukrainian army’s 92nd assault, 82nd air assault, 36th marine infantry and 13th National Guard brigades in areas near the settlements of Volchansk, Liptsy, Tikhoye and Volchanskiye Khutora. In addition, they repelled an attack by two assault groups of the Ukrainian army’s 71st jaeger brigade," the ministry said.

The Ukrainian army’s losses in that frontline area over the past 24 hours amounted to 200 personnel, three tanks, two pickup trucks, two US-made 155mm M777 howitzers, a US-manufactured 155mm M198 howitzer, a US-made AN/TPQ-64 counterbattery radar station and a Nota electronic warfare system, it specified.

Reuters/Tass

The current pace of advances in generative artificial intelligence makes it difficult to forecast how the technology will affect the economy, business, and society. Nonetheless, it already seems clear that the new AI applications will produce a narrow cohort of winners and lead to a smaller workforce, confronting governments with big policy challenges.

Consider how AI will affect the three key components of growth: capital, labour, and productivity. In terms of capital, the massive volume of investment required to power AI innovations ensures that there will be a smaller, more concentrated set of winners. Big Tech firms with monopolies in their respective markets are the only ones that can afford the enormous costs associated with developing, training, and powering large language models (LLMs).

Most of these costs come from running high-end graphics processing units (GPUs), and from powering and cooling enormous data centers. Sam Mugel, the chief technology officer of Multiverse, estimates that training the next generation of LLMs will soon cost at least $1 billion. In 2023 alone, the Magnificent Seven – the top technology companies in the United States –allocated a combined $370 billion to research and development. That is roughly equal to the European Union’s total R&D budget (counting both businesses and the public sector).

With respect to labour, it is too early to anticipate the winners and losers, or how the gains and losses associated with AI will be distributed across the economy. While a 2023 report from Goldman Sachs estimated that AI could “expose the equivalent of 300 million full-time jobs to automation,” a World Economic Forum survey of 803 companies points to a much lower net loss, owing to job creation related to investment in the green transition and climate-change adaptation.

In any case, many fear that AI will contribute to long-term structural unemployment, creating a jobless class that will include both skilled and unskilled workers. But while the projections above provide a baseline of what might occur, there is ample scope to refine our thinking on the issue. After all, the scale of the problem will depend on which jobs are lost at different points of the AI value chain.

We have not yet seen what job losses at one link in the chain will mean elsewhere in the technology sector, let alone the broader economy. The impact on jobs could vary widely as we move from chip manufacturers, AI infrastructure, and AI applications to sectors such as health care, education, and telecommunications – all of which are poised to benefit from AI innovations. At the technology’s base, there is already enormous growth and job creation as chip manufacturers (such as Nvidia) build fabrication facilities and invest in the production capacity that will drive the AI revolution.

It is less clear how many jobs will be created or lost elsewhere, because no one can predict all the ways a new technology will be used, or what knock-on effects it may have. Early indications of AI’s impact on long-term efficiency and productivity gains are encouraging – at least for those workers who will still have jobs. For example, a 2023 studyof 5,000 workers by Erik Brynjolfsson, Danielle Li, and Lindsey R. Raymond found that AI tools boosted worker productivity by 14%, on average, and by 34% for new and low-skilled workers.

Technological advances have a long track record of enhancing global connectivity in trade and telecommunications, expanding access to public goods like health care and education, driving innovation, improving living standards, and ultimately powering broad-based economic growth. There is no reason to think that AI will not do the same.

Moreover, AI will likely diffuse across the wider economy faster than previous technologies did, which means that AI-related productivity and efficiency gains could happen sooner rather than later. Earlier general-purpose technologies (such as the steam engine, electrification, and personal computers) required vast outlays to build the underlying infrastructure. It took more than 40 years for electricity to become widely accessible in the first half of the twentieth century, and it took roughly a decade for smartphones to surpass 90% adoption in the 2010s. AI, by contrast, can be deployed through existing digital platforms and devices.

The upshot is that the AI super cycle will likely drive productivity gains and stronger economic growth – to the tune of $16 trillion globally by 2030, in PwC’s forecast. But these gains will accrue largely to the owners of capital, and less so to a potentially shrinking labour force. In an era of less labour-intensive growth, many companies and industries will adapt their business models – namely, by increasing the ratio of capital to employment – and governments will need to reassess tax and welfare policies.

If greater economic gains are flowing to the owners of capital, taxes will need to change accordingly. For example, a much higher corporate tax rate may be necessary to capture the excess profits generated by automation and a smaller workforce. With respect to welfare, the threat of rising structural unemployment from AI will reinvigorate debates about hitherto radical proposals such as a universal basic income.

We must reflect on AI’s effect on inequality both within countries – between capital and labour – and among countries. A widening gap between technology leaders, such as the US and China, and the rest of the world – particularly the poorest economies – bodes ill for an already-fraught geopolitical environment.

Project Syndicate

The final minutes of a job interview — when the interviewer is done with their questions and opens up the floor — is time you don’t want to waste. 

Asking smart, thoughtful questions can give you an edge over other candidates and help you decide whether a role is the right fit for you. 

There’s one question, in particular, that you should “always” ask in a job interview, says LinkedIn career expert Andrew McCaskill.

“What does success look like to you in the first 90 days of this role?” 

By asking how success is measured within the team or company, you’re demonstrating that you’re proactive, and someone who wants to learn the skills needed to excel in the role, McCaskill explains. 

The first 90 days of a new position is the most common timeframe employers use to assess your fit for the job and company culture, McCaskill adds, so it’s a helpful reference point to include — otherwise, the question might feel too broad.

“It cues to the interviewer that you’re curious, and really thinking about how you can help them solve whatever challenges they’re facing at the moment,” he says.

With this question, you’ll better understand what kind of learning curve you’ll face and how your performance will be evaluated. 

The interviewer’s response could make you feel more confident about the role or uncover some red flags. 

If the hiring manager avoids spelling out the specific tasks and responsibilities of the role or is vague about scheduling and expectations for working overtime, “those could be signs that a job is high-stress,” McCaskill explains. 

This question can also help you prepare for any follow-up interviews.

“It gives you a vantage point into what skills and traits the employer is prioritizing in hiring for this role, and what language they use to describe their ideal candidate, so you can mirror it,” says McCaskill. “It helps you get to the very heart of what they’re looking for.”

CNBC