WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Ukraine's top commander says Russia aims to capture Chasiv Yar by May 9

Ukraine's top commander said on Sunday Russian forces aimed to capture the town of Chasiv Yar by May 9, setting the stage for an important battlefor control of high ground in the east where Russia is focusing its assaults.

The fall of the town west of the shattered city of Bakhmut by the date Moscow marks the Soviet victory in World War Two would indicate growing Russian battlefield momentum as Kyiv faces a slowdown in Western military aid.

Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi, who warned this weekend that the situation in the east had deteriorated, said Russia was focusing its efforts west of occupied Bakhmut to try to capture Chasiv Yar before moving towards the city of Kramatorsk.

Chasiv Yar in the Donetsk region lies 5-10 kilometres (3-6 miles) from Bakhmut, the devastated city captured by Russian forces in May last year after months of bloody fighting.

Kyiv's brigades were holding back the assaults near Chasiv Yar for now and had been reinforced with ammunition, drones and electronic warfare devices, he said in a statement on the Telegram messenger.

"The threat remains relevant, taking into account the fact that the higher Russian military leadership has set its troops the task of capturing Chasiv Yar by May 9," he said, without elaborating.

Ukrainian Defence Minister Rustem Umerov, writing on Facebook, said he visited Ukrainian units on the eastern front on Sunday and described the situation as "tense", with Russia trying to make headway in areas west of Bakhmut.

"Despite the numerical superiority of the enemy, we effectively disrupt these plans thanks to the courage, training and professionalism of the defenders," he wrote.

Russia marks May 9 with a big military parade on Red Square overseen by President Vladimir Putin who won a new six-year term in the Kremlin in March.

ATTACKS ON THE ENERGY SYSTEM

The war has escalated in recent weeks with Russia staging three massive air strikes on Ukrainian power plants and substations, raising fears over the resilience of an energy system that was hobbled in the war's first winter.

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy told Ukrainians in his nightly address on Sunday: "The situation at the front during such a hot war is always difficult. But these days - and especially on the Donetsk front - it's getting harder."

The Ukrainian leader has warned the Kremlin may be preparing to launch a big offensive in late spring or summer.

It is unclear where that attack would come, but Russia has focused its attacking efforts in the Donetsk region.

Ukraine has this year tried to find a pressure point to strike back against the Kremlin, using domestically-produced long-range drones to bomb oil facilities deep inside Russia.

Ukraine now faces manpower challenges and artillery shell shortages.

Rob Lee, a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, a think-tank in Philadelphia, said on X that Chasiv Yar would likely prove an important battle.

"Chasiv Yar is located on defensible high ground. If Russia takes the (town), they could potentially increase the rate of advance deeper into Donetsk (region) as part of an expected summer offensive," he said.

"Russian forces will still have to cross the canal to take the (town), but they have now reached the canal southeast of the (town). Immediate increased deliveries of ammunition could prove critical."

 

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

Russian Armed Forces hit IRIS-T air defense system launcher, Ukrainian ammunition depot

Over the past 24 hours, the Russian Armed Forces hit a launcher of the IRIS-T anti-aircraft missile system, the Russian Ministry of Defense said.

"The launcher of the German-made IRIS-T anti-aircraft missile system and an ammunition depot were destroyed," the ministry said. The personnel and equipment of the Ukrainian Armed Forces were also defeated in 129 districts.

The Russian Armed Forces also shot down 41 unmanned aerial vehicles, three Hammer and JDAM guided bombs, as well as one HIMARS MLRS shell of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the ministry said. "Over the past 24 hours, air defense systems shot down 41 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles, 3 Hammer guided aerial bombs made in France and a JDAM made in the US, as well as a missile of the US-made HIMARS multiple launch rocket system," the ministry said.

At the same time, units of the Russian North group of forces hit the personnel and equipment of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the regions of Kharkov and Sumy in the Belgorod direction. "In the Belgorod direction, units of the North group of troops, with the support of aviation and artillery, hit the personnel and equipment of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the areas of the settlements of Ternovaya, Gatishche in the Kharkov region and Radyanskoye in the Sumy region," the ministry said.

 

Reuters/Tass

I never thought I could attend the Eid prayer held on 10th April, a day after I clocked the definitive age of 60: I have now joined the senior citizens' rank. Not being confident I could attend the Eid prayer seems an understatement; for actually, in February, the way I was feeling within me, it was looking to me that I would not witness Ramadan, not to talk of participating in the Eid marking its end.

I easily get exhausted from the littlest of tasks, making me always gasping for air to fill my lungs. It reached a stage where I could not walk ten metres without bending down, holding my knees and inhaling from both my mouth and nose.

It all came to a head when the news of the death of my mother reached me in the early hours of January, 8. I could not walk at the Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport, Abuja which made the flight authorities move me in a wheelchair to the base of the plane, where I climbed the stairs with great effort, stopping at the plane’s entrance to gather myself.

The same routine was enacted when our plane landed at the Malam (don’t know why they spelt it MALLAM with a double l) Aminu Kano International Airport, where I had to be wheeled to the vehicle that conveyed me to Potiskum. To ease my difficulty, I had to be injected intravenously with bronchodilators on the three-hour journey.

Throughout the week I was at Potiskum for her seven-day prayers, I was ensconced in my room and couldn’t be at the family house where the main gathering took place. And I became dependent on my wives for many things a healthy person would do for himself.

And it is not as if I had not sought medical attention. God knows I had always advocated for our leaders to attend hospitals at home. I did the same. Some seven years ago I went to the Asokoro General Hospital where an x-ray was done for me. They said there was nothing wrong, but I knew something was wrong with me. Even then, I started feeling exhausted because I could not do what I normally did easily. And it had nothing to do with ageing.

I did some tests in some private laboratories, and the results were normal. Then I went to NISA Hospital in Abuja where I was looked after by a pulmonologist, James Agada. It is not a run-of-the-mill hospital and not cheap, moreover, I paid for VIP treatment. Yet, my case kept deteriorating till I became almost an invalid.

Then I had an opportunity to visit my governor, Mai Mala Buni, over an issue that needed some clarifications and he saw my condition. He became alarmed and sought to know what happened. I explained what I could to him, including my voyage to hospitals here that were quick to give me a clean bill of health that I knew was not true.

He undertook the process to reverse the ailment and give me back some lost health. He got in touch with an agent, Shettima Alkali, a kind-hearted professional, who got me a visa to Saudi Arabia. Buni, a man of faith, said: “To be there, drinking the holy Zamzam water and praying at the Ka’aba itself would do you wonders.”

And so began my journey in search of health.

I left Nigeria on 12th February from the Malam Aminu Kano International Airport via Air Peace. I will talk about Air Peace and its wonderful, friendly crew another day.

As had become the norm, I was wheeled into the plane from Abuja to Kano to board the Saudi flight and at the Kano airport too I was wheeled into the plane. It was the same procedure at Jeddah Airport until I reached the apartment where I was to stay. Once there I found it easier and more convenient since I had my son, Abubakar Sadik, a big, strong fella to do the wheeling.

In Saudi Arabia, one goes through the healthcare system from the Primary Health Care Centres except if one wants to go straight to a private hospital. To conserve funds and also see how their system works, I started from the former despite my almost desperate condition.

However, if you are an Umrite (my coinage for one undergoing the Umrah), you have an inalienable right to be accepted and diagnosed in government hospitals free of charge, even though there are fee-paying options.

Relying on that right, I started by going to the Jeddah East General Hospital where various tests were carried out on me: blood tests, electrocardiogram (ECG), x-rays, computerised tomography (CT) scans, etc., and the results were good. With all health issues eliminated, everything pointed to problems to do with pulmonology.

Still, I went to a Primary Health Centre this time around. Their primary health centres are as equipped as our general hospitals, if not better. Being the entry point to the health system, every General Hospital has a PHC that refers patients to it. And so this one referred me to King Abdul Aziz General Hospital, Jeddah, where the same tests conducted at Jeddah East were repeated with the same conclusion.

With the certainty of what my ailment was, I left Jeddah for Madinah, arriving at Makkah the next day. I searched online for a good pulmonologist and each search result had one Egyptian, Hebatullah Kamal Taha of Saudi-German Hospital, Makkah, coming up tops. She also comes a bit more expensive than the others. I then booked and paid for an appointment with her for the next day.

At exactly 10 am the next day, accompanied by my wife, Aminat Zakari, and son wheeling me, I was ushered into Heba’s office. A petite, friendly, middle-aged woman. After analysing the results from the two General Hospitals we went to in Jeddah, she made us do a test to ascertain the level of oxygen in my blood and then prescribed some drugs, telling us to return after five days.

** Hassan Gimba is the Publisher and Editor-in-Chief of Neptune Prime.

 

Generative AI is getting better every day. We now have ChatGPT4, Claude 3, Gemini, Perplexity, and whole gamut of specialized GenAI tools that await your discovery. And people are using these tools in creative ways.

For example, UNICEF now explicitly states that they will not accept job applications that use Generative AI. I wonder how they would know when 70% of job applicants use GenAI today. Maybe if  the application was an obvious copy/paste or careless applicants included “as of my last knowledge update” in their documentation. In that case, the application should be trashed because it’s a bad application, not because the applicant used GenAI.

Which brings me to today’s question: “Should it matter if a proposal is written using Generative AI?”

How Is Generative AI Different?

We are already using different types of AI to write everyday correspondence. I know you used AI in your proposal process, even if you didn’t think of it as artificial intelligence. For example:

• Autocomplete is a simple AI automation program.
• Spellcheck and Grammar Check are pattern recognition AI.
• Google Translate is AI interpretation.

Generative AI is using probabilistic algorithms – a fancy way of saying it guesses at the next most common associated word or phrase, versus “knowing” anything – to create plausible text that may or may not be based on a known reality. It still takes human cognition to understand if the text is factually correct and edit it to make sense in the context of the full document.

3 Ways GenAI Can Improve Proposal Writing

I liken Generative AI in proposal writing as using a good assistant. It can help, but it’s not going to generate a perfect proposal for you on the first try. At least, not yet. I see three ways that we can use GenAI in the proposal process today. I’m sure you can think of more – add them in the comments!

1. Understanding Requests for Proposals

I already use the Ask Your PDF Research Assistant custom ChatGPT tool to summarize long documents and highlight key themes. This is especially useful when reports don’t have a strong executive summary.

Most donor RFPs have many pages of rules and regulations that crowd around a few select pages of technical explanations of what the donor really wants. I remember a USAID RFP that was 175 pages long, with only 12 pages detailing what was to be done. GenAI tools can cut through the clutter and pull out specific action items.

2. Developing Strong Win Themes

Once you know what you want to do, GenAI can build on proven responses – both from within an organization’s past experiences and from the greater corpus of development knowledge.

For example, DevelopMetrics has created DELLM, a GenAi tools that makes the Development Clearinghouse Exchange useful. It uses DEC entries, tagged and coded by development experts, to find which interventions were the most effective in different sectors and countries. That’s beyond the ability of any single human, but GenAI can do it easy-peasy.

3. Writing Compliant Submissions

I do feel sorry for local organizations trying to compete with traditional implementing partners. The 15 pages of certifications and representations required in many RFPs can be overwhelming even for me – and I’m a US citizen, Native American English speaker, and have 20+ years experience reading bureaucratic forms.

There is no way a 20-person NGO with 10 years of deep local connections that USAID wants, can ever hope to submit a compliant proposal when English is the 2nd or 3rd language learned – unless they use GenAI. That’s one reason I created the ADAIR and ADS Bots, tested GenAI on the FAR, and I am building a FAM/FAH Bot. We need more and better tools for local firms if we’re ever going to increase localization.

If you think GenAI isn’t ready to write proposals yet, then check out Grant Assistant – an LLM designed specifically to co-create proposals with human editors that include strong objectives, complaint activities, and buzzword usage that will be indistinguishable from (or better than) proposals solely written by humans.

What Are Generative AI Downsides?

Fake Quality: A good proposal put through Generative AI tools can become a great proposal, even a winning proposal. Hence, there is a risk that a subpar proposer could use GenAI tools to win a contract and then be unable to implement a successful project in compliance with the donors regulations.

How would that be any different from a subpar organization hiring a great proposal writer to create a winning proposal? Or donors not doing enough due diligence before awarding funding?

Overwhelming Volume: GenAI tools also make it easier to create proposals, allowing more organizations to submit more proposals using the same resources. Hence there is a risk that donors could be overwhelmed by too many quality proposals to judge properly under existing grading schema.

Might that really say that donors should have better RFPs? Or have different submission and grading criteria? Or just use GenAI themsevles to make proposal assessment easier?

Of course this all portends a day when machines will write proposals for other machines to review and reward – kinda like product review sites and Google Search today.

This is a 100% handcrafted post. Though how would you know if I used GenAI in its production – or not?

 

ICTworks

Iran launched a swarm of explosive drones and fired missiles at Israel late on Saturday in its first-ever direct attack on Israeli territory, risking a major escalation as the United States pledged "ironclad" backing for Israel.

Sirens wailed and Reuters journalists in Israel said they heard distant heavy thuds and bangs from what local media called aerial interceptions of explosive drones. Authorities said a 7-year-old girl was critically injured.

Israel's military spokesperson Daniel Hagari said Iran launched dozens of ground-to-ground missiles at Israel, most of which were intercepted outside Israeli borders. They included more than 10 cruise missiles, he said.

The Iranian salvo amounted to more than 200 drones and missiles so far, Hagari said, and had caused light damage to one Israeli military facility.

The Israeli military said later that it was not advising any residents to prepare to take shelter, revising an earlier alert in what appeared to signal the end of the threat.

Israel's Channel 12 TV cited an unnamed Israeli official as saying there would be a "significant response" to the attack.

Iran had vowed retaliation for what it called an Israeli strike on its Damascus consulate on April 1 that killed seven Guards officers including two senior commanders and said its strike was a punishment for "Israeli crimes". Israel has neither confirmed nor denied responsibility for the consulate attack.

"Should the Israeli regime make another mistake, Iran's response will be considerably more severe," the Iranian mission to the United Nations said, warning the U.S. to "stay away". However, it also said Iran now "deemed the matter concluded".

United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres condemned Iran's attack, saying he was "deeply alarmed about the very real danger of a devastating region-wide escalation."

The U.N. Security Council aims to meet at 4 p.m. ET (2000 GMT) on Sunday, a diplomat said on condition of anonymity, after Israel requested it condemn Iran's attack and designate the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps a terrorist organization.

U.S. President Joe Biden, who on Friday had warned Iran against an attack, cut short a weekend visit to his home state of Delaware. He returned to Washington and met national security advisers, including his secretaries of defence and state, in the White House Situation Room. He pledged to stand with Israel.

"Our commitment to Israel’s security against threats from Iran and its proxies is ironclad," he said on X after the meeting.

The Gaza war between Israel and Hamas, now in its seventh month, has ratcheted up tensions in the region, spreading to fronts with Lebanon and Syria and drawing long-range fire at Israeli targets from as far away as Yemen and Iraq.

British maritime security company Ambrey said in a statement that drones were also reportedly launched against Israel by Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthi group.

Those clashes now threaten to morph into a direct open conflict pitting Iran and its regional allies against Israel and its main supporter, the United States. Regional power Egypt urged "utmost restraint".

While Israel and Iran have been bitter foes for decades, their long feud has mostly unfolded via proxy forces or by targeting each other's forces operating in third countries.

U.S. and British warplanes were involved in shooting down some Israel-bound drones over the Iraq-Syria border area, Channel 12 reported. Two U.S. officials said the U.S. military had shot down dozens of drone aircraft headed for Israel.

ESCALATION

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whose official jet took off shortly after the attack began, convened the war cabinet at a military headquarters in Tel Aviv, his office said.

Israel and Lebanon said they were closing their airspace on Saturday night. Jordan, which lies between Iran and Israel, had readied air defences to intercept any drone or missile that violated its territory, two regional security sources said.

Residents in several Jordanian cities said they heard heavy aerial activity.

Syria, an ally of Iran, said it was putting its ground-to-air defence systems around the capital and major bases on high alert, army sources there said.

The European Union, Britain, France, Mexico, Czechia, Denmark, Norway and the Netherlands all condemned Iran's attack.

Israel had been bracing for an Iranian response to the Damascus consulate strike since last week, when Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said Israel "must be punished and shall be" for an operation he called equivalent to one on Iranian soil.

Iran's main ally in the region, the Lebanese Shi'ite group Hezbollah that has been exchanging fire with Israel since the Gaza war began on Oct. 7, said early on Sunday it had fired rockets at an Israeli base.

 

Reuters

Nigeria has become the first country in the world to roll out the "revolutionary" new Men5CV vaccine against meningitis, the World Health Organization (WHO) said.

Nigeria is one of the hotspots of the deadly disease in Africa. Last year, a 50% rise in annual cases was reported across 26 African countries regarded as meningitis hyperendemic countries, according to the WHO.

“Nigeria's rollout brings us one step closer to our goal to eliminate meningitis by 2030," Tedros Ghebreyesus, WHO Director General, was quoted as saying in a statement.

Between last October and mid-March this year, 1,742 cases were suspected in the country, with 153 deaths recorded in seven states in Nigeria, data from the WHO shows.

The new vaccine is reported to protect against the five major strains of the disease that are prevalent in Nigeria, unlike the initial vaccine that works against only one strain, said the WHO.

 

Reuters

Security officers have arrested 16 “gunmen” suspected to be members of a group identified as Oodua nation agitators for invading the state secretariat at Agodi, Ibadan, Oyo. 

A source told NAN that the gunmen who were more than 10 blocked the secretariat, Total Garden road, to make way for other members of the group to force their way into the secretariat complex.

The gunmen, who were said to be dressed in military camouflage, were subdued with the arrival of security personnel.

The security personnel were able to arrest some of the gunmen while others took to their heels and were pursued into the nearby bushes and forest.

Sources said the gunmen were heading to the Oyo state house of assembly premises located within the secretariat when they were repelled.

They were also said to have removed the Nigerian national flag in the secretariat and replaced it with their “Oodua nation flag”, before the intervention of the security personnel.

“It was in the process of leaving the assembly complex that we started hearing gun shots and everyone began running for safety,” NAN quoted an eyewitness as saying.

The gunmen were said to have arrived in an ash-coloured Toyota Hiace bus and two motorcycles, which have now been seized and taken to the state police headquarters.

Adewale Osifeso, spokesperson of the Oyo police command, confirmed the incident.

The arrested suspects have been moved to the police headquarters at Eleiyele, while security personnel were stationed at the secretariat gate.

 

The Cable

Not fewer than 10 persons have been killed in an attack in Mandung-Mushu and Kopnanle villages of Bokkos Local Government Area of Plateau State.

The attack began at about 10pm on Friday after the villagers had retired for the day.

It lasted for about two hours. A source told our correspondent that the attack has created tension in Bokkos town and environs as some of the victims and those with gunshots wounds were brought to Cottage Hospital in the town.

The source said five members of one family were killed in the attack, adding that similar attack last week led to the death of his brother’s pregnant wife.

In a statement, Bokkos Cultural Development Council (BCDC) Vanguard condemned the attack, saying the attackers targeted innocent, unarmed, and peaceful residents as they slept.

The statement signed by Chairman of BCDC Vanguard, Farmasum Fuddang, said the unfortunate incident happened despite security presence nearby.

“This brazen attack, which predominantly targeted children, appears to be part of a calculated effort to instill fear and perpetrate further displacement within our communities.”

“Just hours before this tragedy unfolded, BCDC Vanguard submitted a petition to the Department of State Services (DSS), challenging a leaked memo that falsely accused our people of planning violence against Fulani residents. We unequivocally stated that the intelligence behind the memo was fabricated and defamatory.

“Despite our efforts to rectify these falsehoods, the security apparatus failed to protect our community from the very threats we highlighted. The timing of this attack, following closely on the heels of the DSS’s erroneous warning of an impending assault on Fulani communities, raises serious concerns about collusion or deliberate neglect.

“Should the authorities fail to provide satisfactory explanations within the shortest possible time, we are prepared to pursue legal recourse. Enough is enough—we will not allow our people to be targeted and vilified while those responsible for our safety turn a blind eye,” the statement read.

Confirming the attack, Plateau State Governor, Caleb Mutfwang, described it as unfortunate and unacceptable.

The governor in a statement by his Director of Press and Public Affairs, Gyang Bere, said the needless occurrence also happened at a time the government was facilitating the return of displaced persons to their homes, and warned perpetrators of these dastardly acts to desist forthwith.

 

Daily Trust

ISRAEL’S REPORTS

IDF: IDF fighter jets destroyed launchers containing rockets ready-to-launch toward central Israel; the 162nd Division continues precise operations in the central Gaza Strip

Following the sirens that sounded yesterday in the Sderot area, three launches that crossed from the Gaza Strip were successfully intercepted by the IDF Aerial Defense Array. IDF artillery struck the area from which the launch was carried out.

IDF fighter jets struck and destroyed three launchers containing 20 rockets that were ready to fire toward central Israel.

The 162nd Division continues precise operations against terrorist operatives and infrastructure in the central Gaza Strip.

Throughout the past day, IDF troops from the Nahal Brigade destroyed Hamas terrorist infrastructure, including a weapons storage facility, and seized additional military equipment belonging to the terrorist organization.

Simultaneously, during precise operations in Beit Hanoun in the northern Gaza Strip, IDF troops used a drone to locate several armed terrorists operating in the area. An IAF aircraft struck the terrorists and eliminated them.

Throughout the past day, in several precise series of strikes, IDF fighter jets struck over 30 terror targets throughout the Gaza Strip, including terrorist infrastructure, military compounds, and anti-tank missile launchers.

Attached is a video of the strikes on the launchers that were ready to fire toward Israel: https://bit.ly/3Jfxlmu

Attached is a video of IDF strikes in the Gaza Strip: https://bit.ly/49BQeLt

Attached are photos of IDF operational activity in the Gaza Strip: https://IDFANC.activetrail.biz/anc13042024685165415

** IDF: Over the last few hours, confrontations between Israeli civilians and Palestinians took place in several locations in the area of Judea and Samaria, during which rocks were hurled and shots were fired. Dozens of Israelis and Palestinians were injured to different degrees.

Numerous IDF and Israel Border Police forces were positioned in the area and the forces deployed riot dispersal means. As of now, all of the incidents have concluded.

In addition to the forces currently stationed in Judea and Samaria, it was decided to reinforce the area with several IDF companies and additional Israel Border Police forces.

Security forces are continuing to pursue the terrorists who murdered Israeli civilian Binyamin Achimair.

** IDF: Repairing a water line in the Khan Yunis area and opening the new “Northern Crossing”; efforts continue to enable the entry of humanitarian aid to residents of the Gaza Strip

The IDF, via the Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories (COGAT), continues efforts to facilitate the entry of hundreds of trucks containing food supplies and humanitarian aid to the residents of Gaza.

Since the beginning of the war, over 22,700 trucks containing 428,000 tons of humanitarian aid have passed through through the Kerem Shalom and Nitzana crossings into Gaza following security checks. In addition, in recent months, over 6,250 food packages have been airdropped in 72 airdrops to distribution points throughout the Gaza Strip, as part of the humanitarian effort.

Last week (April 7 - April 13), approximately 1,866 humanitarian aid trucks were checked and entered through the crossings. 1,463 food packages were dropped in 12 airdrops.

Furthermore, this week, the Coordination and Liaison Administration for Gaza of COGAT, together with the Southern Command, coordinated the entry of 267 trucks carrying humanitarian aid into the northern Gaza Strip. On Thursday, a new crossing from Israel into northern Gaza - the ‘Northern Crossing’ - began operating as part of efforts to increase aid routes to the northern Gaza Strip.

In addition, the Coordination and Liaison Administration for Gaza coordinated works to repair a main water line in the Gaza Strip - Bani Suheila for the Khan Yunis region.

The IDF will continue its efforts to allow humanitarian aid to enter the Gaza Strip by land, air and sea in accordance with international law.

Attached is an infographic with data on the humanitarian aid that has entered the Gaza Strip since the beginning of the war: https://IDFANC.activetrail.biz/anc1304202468546485

Attached is an infographic with data on the humanitarian aid that entered the Gaza Strip last week: https://IDFANC.activetrail.biz/anc1304202468545465

Attached are photos of the repair of a water line in Bani Suheila for the Khan Yunis region: https://IDFANC.activetrail.biz/anc13042024685451654561

Attached is a related video: https://bit.ly/4aThLc5

 

HAMAS’ REPORTS

Hezbollah: We targeted with missile weapons a gathering of Israeli enemy soldiers in “Harsh Adathar”, and we hit it directly.

** Acting head of Hamas in the West Bank, Zaher Jabareen, told Al Jazeera:

- The West Bank is at the heart of the conflict and the Zionist plan, and the occupation wants to swallow up the rights of our people

The enemy government developed a plan in the West Bank in three stages, including settlement, Al-Aqsa, and our prisoners

The current occupation government took a decision to expel the Palestinians from their lands in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, and armed the settlers.

** Moments ago, there was a very violent targeting north of the Nuseirat camp in the middle of the Gaza Strip. The targeting was near Al-Mughraqa Bridge, north of the Nuseirat camp in the central Gaza Strip

** ⭕️In the name of God, the Most Gracious, the Most Merciful

Press Statement

The Hamas movement recently handed over to the mediators in Egypt and Qatar its response to the proposal it received last Monday.

We in the Hamas movement reaffirm our adherence to our demands and the national demands of our people:

A permanent ceasefire, the withdrawal of the occupation army from the entire Gaza Strip, the return of the displaced to their areas and places of residence, intensification of the entry of relief and aid, and the start of reconstruction.

We also confirm our readiness to conclude a deal

A serious and real exchange of prisoners between the two parties.

Saturday: 04 Shawwal 1445 AH

Corresponding to: April 13, 2024 AD

** Al-Quds Brigades: We took control of a Zionist drone while it was carrying out intelligence missions in the Ma’an area, southeast of Khan Yunis.

#Al-Aqsa Flood

** Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades - Qalqilya:

In response to the crimes of the occupation and its settlers against our people, with God’s help and strength, our fighters were able to target the northern Zionist checkpoint in the city of Qalqilya with machine guns, and clash with the soldiers at the checkpoint.

#Al-Aqsa Flood

** Hamas leader Osama Hamdan:

The latest Israeli card regarding the negotiations does not allow the return of the displaced to northern Gaza

- We stressed the withdrawal of the Israeli occupation in stages from the Gaza Strip, the return of the displaced, and the entry of aid without conditions

- There is no understanding with the occupation without stopping the aggression against the Gaza Strip

- Over the past three months, "Israel" has continued to bring the truce negotiations to a dead end.

 

Israel Defense Forces/Hamas Brigade al-Qassam

WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Ukraine could face defeat in 2024. Here's how that might look

The former commander of the UK's Joint Forces Command has warned that Ukraine could face defeat by Russia in 2024.

Richard Barrons has told the BBC there is "a serious risk" of Ukraine losing the war this year.

The reason, he says, is "because Ukraine may come to feel it can't win".

"And when it gets to that point, why will people want to fight and die any longer, just to defend the indefensible?"

Ukraine is not yet at that point.

But its forces are running critically low on ammunition, troops and air defences. Its much-heralded counter-offensive last year failed to dislodge the Russians from ground they had seized and now Moscow is gearing up for a summer offensive.

So what will that look like and what are its likely strategic objectives?

"The shape of the Russian offensive that's going to come is pretty clear," says Gen Barrons.

"We are seeing Russia batter away at the front line, employing a five-to-one advantage in artillery, ammunition, and a surplus of people reinforced by the use of newish weapons."

These include the FAB glide bomb, an adapted Soviet-era "dumb bomb" fitted with fins, GPS guidance and 1500kg of high explosive, that is wreaking havoc on Ukrainian defences.

"At some point this summer," says Gen Barrons, "we expect to see a major Russian offensive, with the intent of doing more than smash forward with small gains to perhaps try and break through the Ukrainian lines.

"And if that happens we would run the risk of Russian forces breaking through and then exploiting into areas of Ukraine where the Ukrainian armed forces cannot stop them."

But where?

Last year the Russians knew exactly where Ukraine was likely to attack - from the direction of Zaporizhzhia south towards the Sea of Azov. They planned accordingly and successfully blunted Ukraine's advance.

Now the boot is on the other foot as Russia masses its troops and keeps Kyiv guessing where it is going to attack next.

"One of the challenges the Ukrainians have," says Dr Jack Watling, senior research fellow in land warfare at the Whitehall thinktank the Royal United Services Institute (Rusi), "is that the Russians can choose where they commit their forces.

"It's a very long front line and the Ukrainians need to be able to defend all of it."

Which, of course, they cannot.

"The Ukrainian military will lose ground," says Dr Watling. "The question is: how much and which population centres are going to be affected?"

It is quite possible that Russia's General Staff have yet to go firm on which direction to designate as their main effort. But it is possible to broadly break down their various options into three broad locations.

Kharkiv

"Kharkiv," says Dr Watling, "is certainly vulnerable."

As Ukraine's second city, situated perilously close to the Russian border, Kharkiv is a tempting goal for Moscow.

It is currently being pummelled daily with Russian missile strikes, with Ukraine unable to field sufficient air defences to ward off the lethal mix of drones, cruise and ballistic missiles aimed in its direction.

"I think the offensive this year will have breaking out of the Donbas as its first objective," adds Gen Barrons, "and their eye will be on Kharkiv which is 29km [18 miles] or so from the Russian border, a major prize."

Could Ukraine still function as a viable entity if Kharkiv were to fall? Yes, say analysts, but it would be a catastrophic blow to both its morale and its economy.

The Donbas

The area of eastern Ukraine known collectively as the Donbas has been at war since 2014, when Moscow-backed separatists declared themselves "people's republics".

In 2022 Russia illegally annexed the two Donbas oblasts, or provinces, of Donetsk and Luhansk. This is where most of the fighting on land has been taking place over the past 18 months.

Ukraine has, controversially, expended enormous efforts, in both manpower and resources, in trying to hold on to first the town of Bakhmut, and then Avdiivka.

It has lost both, as well as some of its best fighting troops, in the attempt.

Kyiv has countered that its resistance has inflicted disproportionately high casualties on the Russians.

That is true, with the battlefield in these places being dubbed "the meat grinder".

But Moscow has plenty more troops to throw into the fight - and Ukraine does not.

The Commander of US Forces in Europe, General Christopher Cavoli, has warned that unless the US rushes significantly more weapons and ammunition to Ukraine then its forces will be outgunned on the battlefield by ten to one.

Mass matters. The Russian army's tactics, leadership and equipment may be inferior to Ukraine's, but it has such superiority in numbers, especially artillery, that if it does nothing else this year, its default option will be to keep pushing Ukraine's forces back in a westward direction, taking village after village.

Zaporizhzhia

This, too, is a tempting prize for Moscow.

The southern Ukrainian city of more than 700,000 (in peacetime) sits dangerously close to the Russian front lines.

It is also something of a thorn in Russia's side given that it is the capital of an oblast of the same name that Russia has illegally annexed, and yet the city is still living freely in Ukrainian hands.

But the formidable defences that Russia built south of Zaporizhzhia last year, in the correct expectation of a Ukrainian attack, would now complicate a Russian advance from there.

The so-called Surovikin Line, consisting of triple layers of defences, is laced with the largest, most densely packed minefield in the world. Russia could partially dismantle this but its preparations would probably be detected.

Russia's strategic objective this year may not even be territorial. It could simply be to crush Ukraine's fighting spirit and convince its Western backers that this war is a lost cause.

Dr Jack Watling believes the Russian objective is "to try to generate a sense of hopelessness".

"This [Russian] offensive will not decisively end the conflict, irrespective of how it goes for either side," he says.

Gen Barrons is also sceptical that, despite the dire situation Ukraine now finds itself in, Russia will automatically drive home its advantage with a decisive advance.

"I think the most likely outcome is that Russia will have made gains, but will not have managed to break through.

"It will not have forces that are big enough or good enough to punch all the way through to the river [Dnipro]... but the war will have turned in Russia's favour."

One thing is certain: Russia's President Vladimir Putin has no intention of giving up on his assault on Ukraine.

He is like a poker player gambling all his chips on a win. He is counting on the West failing to supply Ukraine with the sufficient means to defend itself.

Despite all the Nato summits, all the conferences and all the stirring speeches, there is a chance he may be right.

** Ukraine's army chief says eastern front under intense Russian assault

Summary

Russia trying to advance on Ukraine's town of Chasiv Yar

Army chief says Russia has stepped up armoured assaults

Kyiv denies losing eastern village, reports heavy fighting

Ukraine hopes stalled U.S. military aid comes through soon

Ukraine's army chief said on Saturday the situation on the eastern front had worsened in recent days as Russia has intensified its armoured assaults and battles rage for control of a village west of the devastated city of Bakhmut.

The statement by Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi more than two years since Russia's invasion reflected the grim mood in Kyiv as vital U.S. military aid that Kyiv expected to receive months ago remains stuck in Congress.

Syrskyi said he travelled to the area to stabilise the front as Russian assault groups using tanks and armoured personnel carriers took advantage of dry, warm weather that has made it easier to manoeuvre.

"The situation on the eastern front in recent days has grown considerably more tense. This is linked primarily to the significant activisation of offensive action by the enemy after the presidential elections in Russia," he wrote on the Telegram app.

Since President Vladimir Putin won a new term in a mid-March election, Russia has stepped up its attacks on Ukraine and unleashed three massive aerial strikes on its energy system, pounding power plants and substations.

The slowdown in military assistance from the West has left Ukraine more exposed to aerial attacks and heavily outgunned on the battlefield. Kyiv has made increasingly desperate appeals for supplies of air defence missiles in recent weeks.

Moscow's forces, Syrskyi said, were taking significant losses during their attacks in the east, but were also making tactical gains.

Social media channels reported the fall of Ukraine's eastern village of Bohdanivka to the west of the occupied city of Bakhmut, prompting Kyiv's defence ministry to deny them.

But it acknowledged fierce fighting in the area and said Russian assault groups had reached the village's northern outskirts overnight. "Bohdanivka is now under the control of the defence forces," it said.

The settlement lies a few kilometres northeast of the town of Chasiv Yar, a Kyiv-controlled stronghold that Russia has been trying to reach after seizing the town of Avdiivka in February to the south.

SEIZE THE STRATEGIC INITIATIVE

Russia's defence ministry said on Saturday its forces had captured Pervomaiske, a village to the south also located in Ukraine's Donetsk region where Moscow has focused its offensive operations for months.

Moscow said its troops had improved their tactical position on the front line there after capturing the village 8 kilometres (4.97 miles) southwest of occupied Avdiivka. Kyiv did not immediately comment on the status of Pervomaiske.

Syrskyi said Russian armoured assault groups were attacking on the fronts of Lyman as well as Bakhmut and using dozens of tanks and armoured personnel carriers to try to break through lines on the Pokrovsk front.

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, who has warned Russia may be preparing a big offensive push in late May or in June, inspected domestically-produced weapons at an event outside Kyiv where he presented state awards to Ukrainian arms producers.

At the event, Ukraine's military drone forces chief said supplies of drones to the front lines this year were already three times higher than the volume supplied over the course of the whole of last year, the Interfax-Ukraine news agency reported.

He also said Ukraine had strike drones capable of flying 1,200 km.

In his statement, Syrskyi said only a technological edge over Russia in sophisticated weapons would allow Kyiv "to seize the strategic initiative" from a better equipped and larger foe.

He called for better training for soldiers and in particular infantry, a clear reference to Ukraine's manpower challenges.

Ukraine's parliament passed a bill on Thursday to overhaul how the armed forces draft civilians into the ranks. Zelenskiy also signed legislation last week lowering the draft age from 27 to 25.

 

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

Ukrainian paratroopers surrender in Avdeyevka area — Russian Defense Ministry

Soldiers serving in the Ukrainian armed forces’ 25th separate airborne brigade have surrendered as a unit to the Russian military in the Avdeyevka area, the Russian Defense Ministry said.

"Servicemen of the 25th separate airborne brigade of the Ukrainian armed forces have surrendered as a unit to Russian troops from Battlegroup Tsentr (Center) in the Avdeyevka area. Nine Ukrainian paratroopers of the airborne platoon of the elite brigade of the Ukrainian armed forces seized the opportunity to surrender near Vodyanoye, turned to Russian soldiers and laid down their arms," the ministry said.

According to the Russian Defense Ministry, the POWs said that there was no professional military training and long-awaited reinforcements when such were needed. In addition, they praised good treatment of the POWs by Russian soldiers, urging their fellow servicemen to lay down arms and stay away from fighting, the Defense Ministry added.

The Russian Defense Ministry recalled that Russian servicemen had provided a special communication channel for those Ukrainian soldiers who want to stay alive. The 149.200 frequency, which can be accessed on any digital radio, is specially designated to be used by Ukrainian servicemen as a channel for communicating their intention to surrender to the Russian military, which can then locate them and take them captive safely, thus saving the Ukrainian servicemen from risking their lives crossing minefields to reach the Russian lines.

** Russian forces strike Ukrainian manpower, equipment in 112 areas in past day

Russian forces struck Ukrainian manpower and equipment across 112 areas over the past day, the Russian Defense Ministry reported.

"Operational-tactical aircraft, missile troops and artillery of the Russian Armed Forces hit manpower and equipment of the Ukrainian army in 112 areas," the ministry said.

 

BBC/Reuters/Tass

Whether real or imagined, none of the metonyms for “Lagos boy” is complimentary. The “Lagos boy” moniker once came up in the late 1980s. Olabode George, then Military Governor of Ondo State, had just been removed from office after spending two years. The African Concord magazine then did a post-mortem of his turbulent rule. Newly purchased boats for the coastal part of the state were alleged to be second-hand. By then, for analysts writing about the George years, rigor-mortis hadn’t set on another uproarious component of his time in office. It was his wife, Feyi George’s “Queendom.” So she came up for examination, too. Her Excellency was quarrelsome and garrulous, something that was strange to people in that part of the country, no matter how high they climb. In the hinterland, even if your yam seedling flourishes beyond measure, yielding a big harvest, native wisdom asks that you shawl it from prying eyes with your two palms. But Feyi was the wife of a “Lagos boy.”

Shortly after her arrival as the First Lady, Feyi met grey-haired market women, old enough to be her mother in the Erekesan Market of the state capital. Singing her praises and dancing to welcome her to their midst, Mrs. George’s Lagos spirit suddenly clambered over. Why are Lagos top-shots fond of being descended upon by spirits? Then she said; I paraphrase, “you are older than me but today, I am your mother.” Later, on an official tour, Feyi George went ahead to openly slap Mrs. Tola Ajayi, a Permanent Secretary and wife of a judge. The woman did not allow the slap thaw. She handed Her Excellency multiple hot slaps. So when George was asked what he would want to be remembered by and he said, “…that a ‘Lagos boy’ passed through this place,” African Concord summed it up that George had used “Lagos sense” for the people of Ondo State.

“Lagos sense” and “Lagos boy” connote so many things about the Lagosian. Writers like Cyprian Ekwensi drew the picture of a dreadful Lagos. The “Lagos Boy” could mean smartness, suavity, celebration of inanity, fraudulence, erecting facades on dross to make it look real, and so on and so forth. Even before the colonialists came, Lagos, once known as the “Venice of West Africa,” was dreaded by inhabitants of the hinterland. It was surely the city to make quick bucks. A city once described by Matthew Gandy (“Learning from Lagos” New Left Review, 2005) as “a smoky expanse of concrete and shanty-towns, sprawling for miles across the islands, waterways and onshore hinterland of the… Lagoon,” Lagos was home to money-doublers and soul-scarred gamblers. It was where you could make quick money through mere hubris. Some other writers have described Lagos as “a place of desperation to make it by hook or crook,” with some others giving it the fitting description of “a huge Dickensian space full of heartbreak.” Paul French, in his Lagos: Africa's capital of Noir, said Lagos had popularly been described as “the capital of crimes such as 419 and internet fraud also known as the ‘Yahoo Yahoo’”.

Lagos was and is however not all about con. It is a land of bravery and unmatched can-do spirit. Historically, it is a representation of boldness and venturesome traits. Indeed, the Ibadan cognomen as where the robber’s superior argument acquits him, at the detriment of his accuser, will seem to be more appropriate as a metaphor for the daringness on the streets of Lagos. Lagos could not stand bad rulers. This was demonstrated, first by Madam Alimotu Pelewura, the lyalode of Lagos. On December 16, 1940, Pelewura gathered over seven thousand “angry and overburdened women” who represented every branch of petty traders in Lagos to protest the Income Tax Ordinance of 1940/1941 on the female gender. The protesters closed all markets with over a thousand mobilized women milling round, particularly Broad Street, Bourdillon and Marina. Pelewura led the women to petition the office of Sir Bernard Bourdillon, Governor and Commander in Chief of the Colony and Protectorate of Nigeria. One hundred and ninety two women signed that petition drafted by lawyer and statesman, Oged Macaulay, son of Herbert Macaulay, a prominent Lagosian and nationalist known by the sobriquet, Ejo N’gboro – the snake on the Street.

Lagos’ fight of injustices and inequity was myriad. Lagosians fought the “Battle of Salt Water” called Ogun Olomiro. They rose against the king of Lagos, Oba Akitoye, for his inability to tame the monster of water scarcity. They did not mind the fact that the Oba’s own army too couldn’t get water as the soldiers drank salt water from shallow wells which they dug by hand. It led to the 1851 dismantling of Lagos by the British who deployed canons to level the city to the ground. It was also a precursor to the signing of the treaty with Oba Akitoye, as well as the ceding of Lagos to the British by Oba Dusunmu. The intransigence and daringness of Lagos are reflected in one folksong composed by indigenous Lagosians. They sang: “The British leveled Oluwole/(Oyinbo wo Oluwole); Lagos kept silent/(Eko o wi nkan); The British stylishly took over Marina/ (Won f’eso, won gba Marina); They now said they would dismantle Lagos Island/ (Won tun ni awon mi a wo Isale Eko); They must have thought we were dumb!/ (Won sebi kurumo ni wa!). Late Yoruba Fuji musician, Sikiru Ayinde Balogun (Barrister) later popularized this folksong of Lagos’ resistance to British colonial lords.

Travelers to Lagos, long before independence, through the petro-dollar years and even till today, are handed stern warning to be wary of Lagos and Lagosians. They are sleek, ephemeral and unreal. Perhaps because of its daily infiltration by strange persons of different persuasions, the Lagosian has come to be classified as immune to some of the traits associated with a Yorubaman. He didn’t totally represent the gentlemanly Omoluabi ethos that undergirds the value system of the children of Oduduwa. A trustworthy Lagosian is as scarce as a hen’s teeth. He would grab and run with what doesn’t belong to him. It was repeatedly said that a Lagosian would sell particle to you as an article.

Bola Tinubu is the Lagosian who occupies the highest office in Nigeria today. Ex-Senator, two-term governor of Lagos State and currently president of Nigeria, he has come to approximate the character trait of Lagos. He is the Lagos posterboy and in this case, one who personifies the “Labelabe” leaf. This leaf is a sharp-edged plant that grows by river banks. My people thus say that it is almost impossible for worshippers of the water goddess to pay obeisance to their goddess without the connivance or abetment of the Labelabe. Due to its lacerating sharp edges, the leaf is also used in preparation of potion for protection from evil doers. While chanting incantations on the potion, the reciter chants, “If anyone runs into the Labelabe leaf, they will be soaked in blood.” If Tinubu lost some votes of his Yoruba people in the 2023 presidential election, it may not be too far from the truth to say that his morally prude Yoruba kinsmen from the hinterland who believed that anything Lagos was fraud were the ones who withdrew their votes.

I went into this long epistle about Lagos to situate the recent tirade against the Tinubu government by ex-Vice President and presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in the 2023 election, Atiku Abubakar. Abubakar’s grouse is with the 700km Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway recently awarded by the Tinubu government to the president’s known friend, Gilbert Chagoury, owner of Hitech Construction firm. Atiku made us aware that Tinubu awarded the contract at a whooping sum of N15.6 trillion, an amount almost the total of all Nigeria’s 36 states and FCT budgets for 2024 of N15.91 trillion. This is against the backdrop of the known fact that the lengthiest highway in Africa, which runs from Cairo in Egypt, to Cape Town in South Africa, is going to cost $1.6 billion. The road is 1,156 kilometers. Atiku has received knocks for raising the shroud off this stinking corpse. Many people have asked whether Nigerians expected Tinubu to award the road contract to his enemies. Some equally submitted that even Atiku had promised to sell Nigeria’s refineries to his friends if elected the Nigerian president. So when David Umahi, Minister of Works, went on a converts-winning evangelism to media houses last week to seek Nigerians’ buy-in into the prudence and fidelity in the road project, the dead body he and Tinubu buried in a shallow sepulcher still left gaping tell-tales.  

Gradually, Atiku has led Nigerians by the helm of their garments to see the sickening level of the putrefaction oozing out of the project. For me, Atiku’s greatest submission on the project is that a contract of such magnitude was awarded without any competitive bidding. Where is this ever done in any sane part of the world? As much as Umahi attempted to cover it by showing that such practice was a construction custom, the minister would need to cover his face in shame for this lame defence. How can a road contract the size of the budgets of all Nigerian states be sealed without bidding? To worsen it, the contract was awarded to a known business crony of the president, a fraternity which, before his presidency, Tinubu openly gloated over. Add these two together and you get a fertile ground for grand corruption.

You may not like Atiku’s face and the constancy of his cantankerous politicking but if you are bothered about how corruption has become the necklace on Nigerian governments’ necks, Atiku’s arithmetic should worry you. He seems to be saying that, for Bola Tinubu, the monkey, a known banana glutton, was on the verge of jumping at the banana tree again. Umahi’s waffles and the ill-logics of his defence of the wobbly legs of the humongous contract are sickening and worrisome. From the Umahi waffles, it is obvious, as Atiku alleged, that government only began to think about the percentage of counterpart funding after the project award. He provided evidence. There were so many shameful anomalies that Atiku’s eagle eyes sighted on the road contract. Though Umahi deployed a number of engineering bombasts to convey the quality of the road the Tinubu government has on its hands in the 700km Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway, he couldn’t ward off the army of wriggling maggots that have made this project their dormitory.

Another very fundamental aspect of Atiku’s toothcomb examination of the N15.6 trillion project is that the Nigerian parliament was too engrossed in a slumber to know that incongruities were passing by its backyard. So when the president, a couple of weeks ago, told the world that the parliament’s “integrity is intact” and going ahead to deride “those who are talking about malicious embellishment in the budget” as people who do not “understand the arithmetic,” Nigerians can now understand the quid pro quo chemistry behind Nigeria’s executive and legislature’s dalliance. Among a litany of questions, Atiku had asked why the National Assembly approved N500m for the road project while the Tinubu administration released N1.06tn, a figure over 200 times the amount in the Appropriation Act.

If anyone thought Atiku was embarking on this verbal pugilism because he loves the Nigerian people, in the words of Americans, they have another think coming. In Nigeria, both government in power and the opposition are like the discomfiting and excessively big “Ipa”, (scrotal lymphedema) a disease that makes a man’s scrotum swell disproportionately. Yoruba will ask what good the “Ipa” does for the buttocks. Nigerians are the palm kernel and Nigerian politicians are the two stones, one underneath and the other on top, which are both attempting to access the fruit of the kernel. The two stones don’t like our palm kernel. It is a ploy to mouth the edible seed.

Some people have said that the Tinubu government is just acting true to type by aping the paterfamilias of some governments before it. It is being said that, in the so-called 

Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway, Aso Rock just wants to help its business partner link a road from Lekki to its hotel corridor. If some few billions of Naira get drowned in the process, so be it. Simplicitas. As Atiku asked, if they must piss on us, they should, at least, cover it with some pearls and sequins by calling it rain!