RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

Zelensky reveals cause of counteroffensive failure

Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky attributed the delay and lackluster results of his military’s much-hyped counteroffensive to insufficient weapons and training from Kiev’s Western allies in an interview with CNN’s Fareed Zakaria on Sunday. 

“We did have plans to start [the counteroffensive] in spring. But we didn’t, because, frankly, we had not enough munitions and armaments and not enough brigades properly trained in these weapons,” Zelensky explained, adding that holding the training outside Ukraine further contributed to the delays. 

It was this delay, he said, that allowed Russia to “mine all our lands and build several lines of defense,” forcing upon the Ukrainian military “a slower pace of our counteroffensive actions.” 

“We don’t want to lose our people, our personnel,” Zelensky said, adding, “our servicemen didn’t want to lose equipment because of that.”  

Zelensky gave similar excuses at the Aspen Security Forum on Friday, explaining that Ukraine had wanted to launch the counteroffensive in the spring but decided against it due to a lack of ammunition and training. However, he implied that victory was imminent as soon as the military finished removing the mines that Western stinginess had allowed Russia the time to plant.  

While Pentagon officials have stressed that it is too early to write the counteroffensive off as a “failure,” the US has refused to supply Ukraine with long-range ATACMS or F-16s, explaining with regard to the latter that there simply is no time or money to train the Ukrainians to fly and maintain the aircraft in time to make a difference in the conflict.  

Even the Western media has acknowledged the counteroffensive’s lackluster performance. The New York Times reported earlier this month that Ukraine’s military had lost 20% of its weapons in the first two weeks of the operation alone, losses Zelensky also blamed on the insufficient generosity of his Western allies. The Financial Times and Washington Post have both reported this month that the West and US, respectively, are concerned about Ukraine’s lack of progress in the counteroffensive they had promised would deal a decisive blow to Moscow.   

While NATO has pledged to prop up Ukraine’s military for “as long as it takes” to defeat Russia, the alliance stopped short of inviting Kiev to join during its summit in Vilnius earlier this month. This incensed Zelensky, who called the bloc’s behavior “unprecedented and absurd.”  

Ukraine has received a massive amount of military aid from NATO members in the last 18 months, with $46.6 billion coming from the US alone. However, Kiev’s allies are running critically low on ammunition, while the publics in Western countries are questioning the wisdom of what is increasingly seen as an open-ended proxy war with a nuclear power.

** Demining Ukraine will take 757 years – WaPo

The conflict with Russia has turned Ukraine into the “most mined country”in the world, the Washington Post reported on Saturday, citing data from the nation’s government and several non-governmental humanitarian mine clearance groups.

Almost one-third of Ukraine’s territory has been affected by heavy fighting and will likely require intense demining operations, the media outlet said, adding that over 67,000 square miles (173,529 square kilometers) have been contaminated with unexploded ordnance, according to Slovakia-based think tank GLOBSEC. That’s more than the size of Florida and roughly equivalent to Uruguay.

“The sheer quantity of ordnance in Ukraine is just unprecedented in the last 30 years. There’s nothing like it,” Greg Crowther, the director of programs at British NGO Mines Advisory Group, told the Washington Post.

According to UN data, almost 300 civilians, including 22 children, died in Ukraine in incidents linked to unexploded ordnance between February 2022 and July 2023, the Post reported. Mines and other unexploded munitions also resulted in 632 civilian injuries over the same period, it added.

Both sides of the conflict actively use mines in their operations, the media outlet noted. The US also contributed to the mining of Ukrainian territory by supplying Kiev with 155-millimeter artillery rounds that create temporary minefields, although their submunitions are technically supposed to self-destruct, the Washington Post reported. Another US-made ordnance that was sent into Ukraine was the M21 anti-tank mine, which does not self-destruct, it added.

Washington’s decision to provide Kiev with US-made “cluster munitions, which are known to scatter duds that fail to explode, can only add to the danger,” the media outlet said.

According to some estimates, it could take 757 years to clear all of the unexploded ordnance scattered around the country, even if 500 demining teams were tasked with the mission, the Washington Post reported. World Bank estimates show that the cost of these operations could reach $37.4 billion in just the next ten years, it added.
Washington has so far committed just around $95 million to demining operations in Ukraine, according to a 2023 State Department report.

On Friday, UN Under Secretary General for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs Rosemary DiCarlo warned the UN Security Council that huge swathes of Ukrainian territory have been covered in mines and cluster bombs that will “continue to pose danger to civilians for years to come.” 

Earlier this week, Russia’s ambassador to the US, Anatoly Antonov, blasted Washington for turning Ukraine into a “burial ground” for lethal waste.

** West knew Ukraine wasn't ready for counteroffensive – WSJ

Western military officials knew earlier this year that Ukraine lacked the supplies and training necessary to launch a successful counteroffensive against Russian forces, but allowed Kiev to launch its disastrous operation regardless, the Wall Street Journal reported on Saturday.

Nearly two months since it began, Ukraine’s counteroffensive remains stalled. By attempting to advance through Russian minefields without air support or adequate anti-air weapons, the Ukrainian military has lost 26,000 men and more than 3,000 pieces of hardware, according to the latest figures from Moscow. In return, Ukraine has captured only a handful of hamlets and villages, while failing to penetrate Russia’s multi-layered network of defensive trenches and emplacements.

The US and its allies knew that such an outcome was inevitable, according to the Wall Street Journal. Citing leaked Pentagon documents, the newspaper claimed that US military analysts counted a “tiny number” of Ukrainian weapons capable of hitting Russian aircraft, and determined that Kiev would face an “inability to prevent Russian air superiority.” 

“America would never attempt to defeat a prepared defense without air superiority, but [the Ukrainians] don’t have air superiority,” John Nagl, a retired US Army lieutenant colonel, told the paper. “It’s impossible to overstate how important air superiority is for fighting a ground fight at a reasonable cost in casualties.”

In public, American officials told a different story. “We believe that the Ukrainians will meet with success in this counteroffensive,” White House national security advisor Jake Sullivan told CNN on the eve of the operation. Several months earlier, Dan Rice, an Iraq War veteran who now serves as an adviser to the Ukrainian armed forces, declared that the counteroffensive would “shock the world” with its success.

European leaders were similarly optimistic. Polish President Andrzej Duda, who has been one of Kiev’s most fervent backers, announced in early June that the operation would lead to “the ousting of Russian military forces from all occupied territories.”

Western officials have since downgraded their expectations, and are privately “alarmed” at the lack of results on the battlefield, according to recent media reports. Western governments are therefore at a crossroads, and will soon need to decide whether to commit the massive amounts of arms, equipment, and money necessary to support Kiev in a longer conflict, the Wall Street Journal explained, citing anonymous diplomats.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has described Ukraine’s counteroffensive as “suicidal.” In a public address on Friday, he pointed out that despite the“colossal amounts of resources,” and “thousands of foreign mercenaries and advisers” that Kiev has received from the West, its counteroffensive has still resulted in failure. 

WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Ukraine has recaptured 50% of the territory that Russia seized, Blinken says

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that while Ukraine has recaptured half the territory that Russia initially seized in its invasion, Kyiv faced "a very hard fight" to win back more.

"It's already taken back about 50% of what was initially seized," Blinken said in an interview with CNN on Sunday.

"These are still relatively early days of the counteroffensive. It is tough," he said, adding: "It will not play out over the next week or two. We're still looking I think at several months."

Late last month, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy was quoted as saying that the counteroffensive's progress against Russian forces was "slower than desired."

Ukraine has recaptured some villages in the south and territory around the ruined city of Bakhmut in the east, but has not had a major breakthrough against heavily defended Russian lines.

When asked if Ukraine will get U.S.-made F-16 fighter jets, Blinken said he believed it would. "And the important focus is on making sure that when they do, they’re properly trained, they’re able to maintain the planes, and use them in a smart way."

A coalition of 11 nations will start training Ukrainian pilots to fly the F-16 fighter jets in August in Denmark, and a training center will be set up in Romania.

Ukraine has long appealed for the Lockheed Martin-made (LMT.N) F-16s, but U.S. National Security adviser Jake Sullivan, said last month there was no final decision on Washington sending the aircraft. U.S. officials have estimated it would take at least 18 months for training and delivery of the planes.

The United States has given Ukraine more than $41 billion in military aid since Russia invaded in February 2022.

RT/Reuters

Clashes flared in parts of Sudan on the 100th day of the war on Sunday as mediation attempts by regional and international powers failed to find a path out of an increasingly intractable conflict.

The fighting broke out on April 15 as the army and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) vied for power. Since then, more than 3 million people have been uprooted, including more than 700,000 who have fled to neighbouring countries.

Some 1,136 people have been killed, according to the health ministry, though officials believe the number is higher.

Neither the army nor the RSF has been able to claim victory, with the RSF's domination on the ground in the capital Khartoum up against the army's air and artillery firepower.

Infrastructure and government in the capital have fallen apart while fighting has spread westwards, particularly to the fragile Darfur region, as well as to the south, where the rebel SPLM-N group has tried to gain territory.

Over the weekend, the RSF moved into villages in Gezira State directly south of Khartoum, where the army conducted air strikes against them, according to witnesses.

In Nyala, one of the country's largest cities and capital of South Darfur, clashes have continued since Thursday in residential areas, according to witnesses. At least 20 people have been killed, medical sources said. The United Nations says 5,000 families have been displaced, and residents have reported looting of key facilities.

"Bullets are flying into homes. We are terrified and no one is protecting us," said 35-year-old Salah Abdallah.

The fighting gave way to ethnically targeted attacks by Arab militias and the RSF in West Darfur, from which hundreds of thousands of people have fled to Chad.

Residents have also accused RSF soldiers of looting and occupying wide swathes of the capital. The RSF has said it would investigate.

Late on Sunday, the Sudanese army said nine people died, including four military personnel, when a civilian Antonov plane crashed due to a technical failure at Port Sudan airport in the east of the country. A young girl survived the accident, the army added in a statement.

While the two warring sides have shown openness towards mediation efforts led by regional and international actors, none has resulted in a sustained ceasefire.

Both sides have sent delegations to attempt to re-start talks in Jeddah that have yielded often-violated ceasefires.

But the Sudanese foreign minister said on Friday that indirect talks had not begun seriously.

The leaders of the army and RSF headed a joint council since the ouster of former ruler Omar al-Bashir in 2019 and diverged over plans for a transition to democracy.

Civilian political groups as well as the RSF have accused the army of turning a blind eye to appearances by wanted Bashir loyalists in recent days.

The Forces of Freedom and Change, the main civilian coalition, said on Sunday it was holding meeting in Egypt, which offered itself as a mediator in the conflict.

Reuters

Last week, the federal government, through the Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission (FCCPC), banned two loan app banks, permanently removing them from Google Play Store and initiating the process of deleting their respective apps.

The culprits, Sycamore Integrated Solutions Limited and Orange Loan and Purple Credit Limited, along with their apps, Getloan and Camelloan, were permanently delisted due to their illicit practices and for their harassment of Nigerians.

They were also accused of duplicity and illegal activities when they were discovered to be using APKs to attract borrowers, which is both illegal and unregulated.

The truth is that loan apps have taken over our cyberspace and instead of bringing succour to the people - as they want all to believe - they steal the peace in homes and communities.

Perhaps most, if not all, of the about a hundred loan apps threatening not to give us a breathing space may be owned by the same Chinese people. The moment you just view any of them online, a plethora of others inundate your screen, and there are a lot. You have XCROSS, Jumia app, Easy-buy, Palm Credit, Palm Pay, Easy Cash, Loan Book, etc. Some have turned into mushroom microfinance banks with offices and mean staff. They christen them “Debt Collectors”.

With no collateral, they promise you instant cash, but they get access to all the relevant information from your phone. This allows them to know much about you and have access to your contacts, granting them a mighty stranglehold on your jugular.

Many people, a good number knowing they had no means of paying back, get trapped in a vicious cycle where they continue obtaining such easy loans to pay an earlier loan from another loan giver. And so the cycle goes on.

In a country where the masses do not have any form of social security or insurance coverage, some loans go into issues like feeding the family, seeking medical care, paying school fees for kids and such stuff.

However, the problem is that these Shylock loan givers have nasty ways of collecting their monies from defaulters. Some are extremely embarrassing that can lead to the clients losing face in the community while they crudely blackmail their victims. Whatever they can do to have their pound of flesh is fair game to them.

Mrs Adeogun, a former member of staff of one of these loan sharks, disclosed that an “unprecedented embarrassment” befalls anyone who fails to pay back such borrowed monies on time. She said, “If you refuse to pay them back at the set date, you will be treated like trash. They will embarrass you in a big way, in a manner that your children will forever be ashamed of. I know what I am saying; I used to be a member.”

I have received several text messages from these debtors telling me to “talk to” some people in my contact list to pay them. These people may not be close to me in any way, but an SMS will come telling me that those people have made me their guarantor when collecting the loan and that I should press them to pay.

Another most embarrassing and libellous one came to me regarding a lady who was a neighbour. They sent me a message that she was diagnosed with HIV but she had run away from a medical facility to infect people and that she should be reported when seen.

She told me it was them and that they cooked that up to get at her for a loan she took from them.

Her case is even minor compared to those who lost their lives because of the pressure from these Shylocks who must always get their pound of flesh if not more.

In July 2019, 41-year-old Shakirat Rasheed, in Apete, a suburb of Ibadan, rather than face the embarrassment from such people, committed suicide after a friend she stood as surety for fled with the loan.

This year, too, has witnessed some deaths because debtors prefer to take that extreme route rather than face harassment from such unscrupulous loan sharks.

One woman simply identified as Mama Dada burnt herself in her rented apartment over her inability to repay a loan of ₦70,000 she took from one of such microfinance banks, popularly known as LAPO.

LAPO is well-known for lending money to traders and other small-business owners with specific repayment plans.

The woman sent her little son to buy petrol, discharged him on another errand, locked the door and set herself ablaze. She was burnt beyond recognition as the entire building in Abeokuta’s Oke-Keesi, Itoko area, was destroyed in the process.

Even management staff are not exempt; in June this year, the manager of SEAP Microfinance Bank in Saki, Oke-Ogun area of Oyo State, Sola Ogungbe, also committed suicide over loan facilities he granted to some of his customers which they failed to repay.

Families of debtors, too, sometimes suffer collateral damage. Vivian Omo died during an encounter with four officials of one Zefa Microfinance Bank, Ifo, Ogun State.

On May 10 this year, the bank, situated at Abule Ijoko Lemode area of Ifo Local Government of the state, visited the victim’s house in search of her husband, who was said to be their debtor.

The bank’s enforcers, Badmus Olalekan, Ajibade Oludare, Eniola Aduragbemi and Femi Oloko, had gone there to request the money borrowed by the man, but they were told by the deceased’s wife that her husband was not at home. The debt collectors were not buying it, so they tried to take away some electronics, but the woman resisted.

While the deceased was struggling with the bank’s staffers, one of them pushed her and she fell to the ground and passed out. At the hospital, the doctor on duty confirmed her dead.

With the removal of fuel subsidies and the attendant pressure on pockets and purses, expect more and more Nigerians to go a-borrowing. And a-sorrowing, of course.

But who will save them from these Shylocks?

** Hassan Gimba is the Publisher and Editor-in-Chief of Neptune Prime.

A new body of research on Africa reveals that knowledge, expertise and founder commitment are what makes or breaks commercial businesses. Drawing data from across the continent, the team of researchers at African Scalecraft identified attributes indicative of a private company’s probable success.  

The research project sets out to understand the contexts, barriers, enablers and future pathways necessary to scale commercial ventures in Sub-Saharan Africa. 

On the subject of leadership, the researchers write: “Internationally…founders of high-growth ventures are often highly educated and exhibit prior industry and leadership experience, if not necessarily prior entrepreneurial experience. High-growth ventures are also usually managed by larger leadership teams.”

Drilling down into the publicly available data on African founders and their leadership teams, the team found a correlation between founders who have raised finance and their external success, which may be underpinned by demographic and/or experience factors.

The research aimed to identify whether particular attributes are associated with venture-building success. While diversity is mainly implicit in African founding teams, research from Professor Tim Weiss suggests three types of founders:

• Domestic entrepreneurs – Born and educated in Africa, equipped with deep local knowledge, like access to domestic networks and resources.
• Returnee entrepreneurs – Diaspora entrepreneurs who bring new knowledge that informs the recipe they manage their ventures by.
• Expatriate entrepreneurs – Equipped with privileged access to knowledge, networks, and resources, these entrepreneurs lack context-specific knowledge/networks.

Weiss states that combining local and international expertise in leadership teams can help catalyse scaling. 

“Drawing together access to specific knowledge, resources and contacts from certain capital-rich markets is likely to have positive impacts, especially if combined with deep knowledge of local institutional infrastructure,” note the researchers.

The power of two

According to Scaling In Africa, 80% of startup deals on the continent are signed by startups with two co-founders or more. “Data from Africa: The Big Deal suggests roughly half of the deals in Africa are signed by a founding team duo. This is true regardless of the deal size, deal type, sector, gender diversity of the founding team or CEO or geography.”

Unsurprisingly, as deals grow in size, so does the size of the founding team. Single-founder startups make up 27% of small deals (less than US$1 million), but this proportion is just 13% for bigger deals (over US$10 million).

A troubling statistic – in 95% of cases, when a lone founder raises US$1 million or more, this founder is a man. Conversely, lone female entrepreneurs get very little funding. To remedy this, women founders who have already been successful are now entering the VC space and specifically target female-led startups.

From startup to scaleup

The bad news for founders in Africa is that global studies reveal that founders are eliminated relatively quickly along the scaleup journey – only 49% of VC-backed founders stayed on until an IPO, reports African Scalecraft.

“A review of over 200 US companies by Harvard Business School revealed that by the time ventures are three years old, half the founders are no longer the CEO. We are not aware of any such studies examining the longevity of African CEOs backed by investors,” add the researchers.

Age is another factor. “Antler research on African scaling founders indicates the median age of entrepreneurs launching ventures is 29, with only 20 percent being over 35. In contrast, the median age of unicorn founders worldwide, as reported in Ali Tamaseb’s Super Founders book, is 34. 

“A 2020 report found that the most successful US startups – those in the top 0.1 percent in growth in their first five years – were launched by founders with an average age of 45.”

There is much more detail on this and many other issues on the African Scalecraft website, which is self-described as the most comprehensive study on scaling on the continent. 

Editor's note: This research project was done by Systemic Innovation in collaboration with HYBR and a broad team of experts in Africa, and funded by the UK Government’s innovation agency (Innovate UK) and the Absa Group.

Inc

Governor Uba Sani of Kaduna state has described the proposed cash transfer policy of the Federal Government as a scam.

Sani stated this while speaking in an interview with Arise Television’s News Night on Friday.

The governor said, “My position has always been that, at this critical time, cash transfer should not be something that we should bring up, completely. I think that cash transfer for me, in my opinion, is a scam. Completely is a scam. I can be very certain about that, because who are you transferring the money to?

“Let me give an example, go and check the current statistics. Like I said, as the Chairman, Committee of Banking for four years in Nigeria, I oversight Central Bank, I oversight all the commercial sector of our economy for the last four years and I look at the statistics, I will be very firm on this issue and you can go and check it. 

“About 70 to 75 percent of the rural population in Northwest are financially excluded completely. You will have to go and check, these people we are talking about are important people in the society. They do not even have a bank account so who are you transferring the money to?

“Let’s try and work very hard to make sure that they are financially included, that is the most important thing and I will like to call on our development partners, the World Bank, to put more money towards bringing more people into the financial services and the vulnerable in particular.

“Let’s put more money to ensure that we open accounts for them, get them involved, if we don’t do that, no matter what we do however you do it, money will go to the wrong people, that’s the fact.”

President Bola Tinubu had earlier unveiled his administration’s plan for a monthly N8,000 transfer to 12 million of the poorest households in the country for six months, in a bid to cushion the effects of the removal of fuel subsidy.

But days after the announcement, the Federal Government said it would review the move following the public outcry it generated among Nigerians.

Vanguard

Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC) yesterday said it remitted N123 billion as interim dividend and Production Sharing Contracts (PSC) profit oil to the Federation Account in June this year.

The remittance is coming barely two months after the NNPC exited the fuel subsidy regime following the removal by President Bola Tinubu.

In a note from the national oil company attributed to the NNPC Chief Financial Officer, Umar Ajiya, the company stated that N81 billion of the amount was the monthly interim dividend and N42 billion was 40 per cent PSC profit oil.

The note stated: “In line with the provisions of the Petroleum Industry Act 2021, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited has commenced the payment of dividend into the federation account.”

“The payment of dividend by the NNPC Limited clearly shows that the company under the leadership of the Group Chief Executive Officer, Mele Kyari is moving in a positive trajectory as enshrined in the PIA” noted an NNPCL source.

The fresh information is coming against the backdrop of a release from the office of the Accountant General that the Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) shared a total sum of N907.054 billion to the federal government, states and local government councils during the period. NNPCL attributed the increase in the money shared to its June remittances.

Thisday

Presidential candidate of the Labour Party in the February 25, election and first petitioner in the ongoing case at the Presidential Election Petition Court (PEPC), Peter Obi, has replied to the threat of anarchy claimed by the All Progressives Congress (APC), the second and third respondents in the petition, President Bola Tinubu and Kashim Shetimma, who argued that if the court interprets the Electoral Act, Section 134 against them it might lead to breakdown of law and order.

It would be recalled that Tinubu’s legal team led by Wole Olanipekun had in their final address to the court at the weekend threatened that “any other interpretation different from theirs will lead to absurdity, chaos, anarchy and alteration of the very intention of the legislature.”

But Peter Obi’s lawyers led by Livy Uzoukwu and Onyechi Ikpeazu disagreed with them, saying that what would rather lead to anarchy is where the rule of law is trampled upon or truncated, pointing out that in such situations anarchy reigns supreme.

According to Obi’s legal team: “A sentence in the 2nd-3rd respondents’ address alarmed the petitioners and millions of Nigerians. The 2nd-3rd respondents went too low and abandoned discretion when they claimed as follows: ‘Our submission is that the petitioners are inviting anarchy by their ventilation of this issue of non-transmission of results electronically by INEC.’”

They noted that they found Tinubu’s outburst as “a cheap, misguided, and destructive blackmail clearly intended to target the country’s judicialism and constitutionalism. It also aims at cannibalizing our democracy.”

The legal team also noted that the careless and absurd statements of the second and third respondents intend to raise the issue of insecurity if the petitioners were to emulate the bad example of the second and third respondents, but remarked that such will never happen because of the petitioner’s discipline and peaceful disposition and belief in the rule of law.

Still underscoring the pointlessness and the supererogatory of the respondent’s threat, the legal team wondered “when has it become offensive for petitioners to canvass a ground prescribed for the challenge of an election in Section 134(1)(b) of the Electoral Act 2022?

They attributed the needless flare-up and effusion of the respondents to desperation taken too far, which they said could be extremely dangerous.

“Let the 2nd-3rd respondents know that where the rule of law is trampled upon or truncated, anarchy reigns supreme!”

Sun

Youths have stolen hundreds of bags of maize, locally processed rice and other items worth millions of naira in Jalingo, Taraba State.

The youths, who were said to be in large numbers, stormed the warehouse located not far from the 6 Army Brigade and looted the warehouse Friday midnight.

The warehouse is said to belong to Jugulde, a former member of the state House of Assembly and immediate past chairman of Sardauna Local Government Area of the state.

One of the guards at the warehouse, who would not like his name mentioned, told our correspondent that when the youths started gathering at the warehouse at about 11.50pm, the Nigerian Army and police were alerted.

He said before the arrival of the security agents, the youths had already broken into the warehouse and started looting.

The guard further stated that the security agents fired shots into the air to disperse the looters when they arrived at the scene.

It was learnt two persons died in the process.

Items carted away from the warehouse include hundreds of bags of maize and locally processed rice as well as agricultural inputs including fertiliser and pesticide.

It will be recalled that the same warehouse was looted during the #EndSARS protest in 2020 and items worth millions of naira stolen.

When contacted, Police Public Relations Officer of the Taraba State Command, Usman Abdullahi said he was trying to get details of the incident and get back to the reporter.

Daily Trust

WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Drone attack on ammunition depot in Crimea prompts evacuation, bridge closure

A drone attack on an ammunition depot in Crimea prompted authorities to evacuate a 5-km (3-mile) radius and briefly suspend road traffic on the bridge linking the peninsula to Russia, the region's Moscow-installed governor said on Saturday.

Ukraine said its army had destroyed an oil depot and Russian army warehouses in what it called the "temporarily occupied" district of Oktiabrske in central Crimea.

The attack caused an ammunition depot to explode, said Russian-installed governor Sergei Aksyonov, adding there was no reported damage or casualties. Footage shared by state media showed a thick cloud of grey smoke at the site.

Aksyonov later said that all rail traffic in the affected area, temporarily disrupted, was back to normal operation.

Russian news agencies quoted the Health Ministry as saying 12 people required medical assistance and four were taken to hospital.

Russia seized and annexed Crimea from Ukraine in 2014, eight years before launching its full-scale invasion of the country.

The brief halting of traffic on the Crimean Bridge, about 180 km (110 miles) to the east of the drone incident, came five days after explosions there killed two people and damaged a section of roadway - the second major attack on the bridge since the start of the war.

The 19 km (12 mile) road and rail bridge is a vital logistics link for Russian forces, and is also heavily used by Russian tourists who flock to Crimea in summer.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Friday that the bridge was a legitimate target because it was a military supply route for Russia.

"This is the route used to feed the war with ammunition and this is being done on a daily basis," he said.

Russia is on high alert for incidents at the bridge, and an official Telegram channel tells people not to panic in the event of an alarm.

In a further sign of security concerns in Crimea, Oleg Kryuchkov, an adviser to Aksyonov, warned people not to post images of critical infrastructure on the internet.

He urged people who knew the authors of such posts to report them to the interior ministry or the FSB security service.

"Remember that a video posted on the web of military or other critical facilities is work for the enemy," he said.

** War reporter's death prompts Russian outrage over Ukraine's alleged use of cluster bombs

A Russian war reporter was killed and three were wounded in Ukraine on Saturday in what the defence ministry said was a Ukrainian attack using cluster munitions, prompting outrage from Moscow.

In a separate incident, German broadcaster Deutsche Welle said one of its journalists, Yevgeny Shilko, had been wounded elsewhere in Ukraine in a Russian attack with cluster munitions that killed a Ukrainian soldier. It said his life was not in danger.

Cluster bombs are in the spotlight after Ukraine received supplies of them from the United States this month. Many countries ban them because they rain shrapnel over a wide area and can pose a risk to civilians. Some bomblets typically fail to explode immediately, but can blow up years later.

Reuters could not independently verify the use of such weapons in either incident on Saturday. Both sides have used them in the course of Russia's 17-month invasion of Ukraine.

The dead Russian journalist was named as Rostislav Zhuravlev, a war correspondent for state news agency RIA. His three colleagues were evacuated from the battlefield after coming under fire in Ukraine's southeastern Zaporizhzhia region, the defence ministry said.

Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova denounced what she called "criminal terror" by Ukraine and said, without providing evidence, that the attack appeared deliberate.

"Those responsible for the brutal reprisal against a Russian journalist will inevitably suffer well-deserved punishment. The entire measure of responsibility will be shared by those who supplied cluster munitions to their Kyiv protégés," she said.

No comment was immediately available from Ukraine on the incident.

Ukraine has pledged to use cluster munitions only to dislodge concentrations of enemy soldiers. White House national security spokesman John Kirby said this week that Ukrainian forces were using them appropriately and effectively against Russian formations.

Konstantin Kosachyov, deputy speaker of the Russian upper house of parliament, said the use of the weapons was "inhuman" and the responsibility lay both with Ukraine and the United States. Leonid Slutsky, a party leader in the lower house, called it a "monstrous crime".

Their reactions ignored the fact that Russia's own use of cluster bombs in the war has been documented by human rights groups and by the U.N.

U.S.-based Human Rights Watch said in May that Russian forces had used the weapons in attacks that had caused hundreds of civilian casualties and damaged homes, hospitals and schools.

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

Ukraine attacks Russia's Belgorod region with cluster munitions – governor

Ukraine has targeted a village in Russia’s Belgorod Region with cluster munitions, local governor Vyacheslav Gladkov has said.

At least three cluster munitions were employed by Kiev's forces during a large-scale attack on the settlement of Zhuravlevka, Gladkov wrote on Telegram on Saturday.

According to the governor, 21 artillery shells and ten mortar rounds were also fired at the village. It was also targeted by a kamikaze drone.

No casualties or damage were repoted in Zhuravlevka as a result of the shelling, Gladkov said.

He added that smaller artillery, mortar and drone attacks targeted at least a dozen other settlements in Belgorod Region on the same day.

In the village of Ilek-Penkovka, 12 households were affected by an explosion, with the facades of buildings being damaged and windows shattered, he said, but that injuries had been avoided.

The US announced the delivery of cluster munitions to Ukraine earlier this month, with President Joe Biden describing it as a stopgap measure that was necessary due to a shortage of regular artillery rounds among Kiev’s Western backers.

The controversial shells, which contain multiple bomblets that are dispersed over a large area, have been banned in more than 100 countries. However, neither Ukraine, the US, nor Russia are signatories of the 2008 Convention on Cluster Munitions (CCM).

Washington admitted that it was aware of the increased risk posed by cluster munitions for the civilian population, but claimed that Kiev had pledged to deploy them responsibly and steer clear of densely populated areas.

On Thursday, White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby confirmed that the Ukrainian forces had begun using US-supplied cluster munitions on the battlefield. They were doing so “quite effectively,”he claimed.

Russian President Vladimir Putin noted last week that the US itself had earlier branded the use of cluster munitions “a crime,” saying this was exactly how he regarded the delivery of such weapons to Kiev by Washington.

The Russian military has a “sufficient” stock of cluster munitions, which it can also put to use in a tit-for-tat response to such weapons being deployed by Ukraine, the president warned.

** Kiev used grain deal to stock up on military supplies – Russia

Ukraine has used the Black Sea grain deal to accumulate sizable military and fuel supplies, Russian Deputy Ambassador to the UN Dmitry Polyansky told the organization’s Security Council (UNSC) on Friday. EU nations have also exploited the agreement to reap profits from cheap Ukrainian food products, he said.

Since the UN-facilitated deal was introduced a year ago, “the Kiev regime has built up significant military and industrial [supplies], as well as fuel… storage capacities in the areas near its Black Sea ports,” the diplomat said during a UNSC meeting convened after Russia’s decision to withdraw from the agreement.

A large number of Ukrainian soldiers and foreign mercenaries have also been stationed in the areas protected under the deal, he said, adding that Russia could “remedy this situation” now that it has left the deal.

The Ukrainian military did not hesitate to use the humanitarian corridors reserved for the grain shipments to launch attacks on the Russian military and civilian targets, Polyansky said, adding that neither the UN nor Western nations had reacted to such attacks in any way. “Do you just want us to put up with it?” asked the envoy.

The Russian military repeatedly reported on Ukrainian attempts to strike targets in Crimea with both aerial and naval drones, which were mostly thwarted by Russian defense systems. In May, Moscow stated that the Ukrainian forces had taken advantage of the grain corridors to stage attacks on Crimea.

The deal itself, which was initially touted as a humanitarian initiative aimed at helping the poorest nations to avoid a food crisis, was ultimately “commercialized” by the West, Polyansky said.

“Europeans, who buy Ukrainian food products at give-away prices, then process them and re-sell them as manufactured goods with high added value,” he continued, adding that EU nations are “benefiting twice” from the deal. “Tell me, where is the goal of providing the poorest nations with food here?” he asked.

Moscow has repeatedly stressed that only a tiny percentage of the grain exported from Ukraine as part of the agreement has been shipped to such nations, while the bulk of it has ended up in Europe. On Friday, Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto also stated that “95% of exported Ukrainian grain does not go to Africa.” He blamed this for rising food prices on the continent, which were “destabilizing regions that are already in difficulty.”

The US Department of Agriculture also said in its July report that almost half of all Ukrainian wheat exports ended up in the EU after the grain deal was struck. Türkiye imported almost a quarter of Ukraine’s wheat over the same period, and only roughly one-fifth went to the “rest of the world,” the report showed.

Reuters/RT

Initial applauses from Bretton Woods and some local economists that greeted the economic reforms of the Bola Tinubu presidency were deafening. The reforms were termed bold and courageous. The most surgically painful of them, which drilled deep down into the marrows of Nigerians, was the removal of fuel subsidy. In a country that is almost totally dependent on PMS, the unbearable pains of the people reached ear-shattering decibel. Cars disappeared from the roads. Costs of transportation are tearing the roof, with rife social dislocations. Rates of crime have since been on the increase, with rising matrimonial disorder figures. Local political party panegyrists and their hirelings, in response to the harrowing pains that accompanied the policies, lapped up the time-worn cliché of “Rome was not built in a day” as requests for national patience. Why not allow a window into the counterpoise of that cliché, to wit that Rome was not destroyed in a day? With my eyes of metaphor, I see an unfolding disaster of Sobia that is afflicting villagers and townsmen.

Africa developed several myths and fables in response to guinea worm. Among the Yoruba who named it Sobia, it was presumed to be the wrath of Sanpona, a dreaded deity. On the surface, Sobia’s presentation looks not dissimilar from the perceived strike of Sanpona which usually came as smallpox pestilence. Coupled with the fact that it occurred majorly in the dry season, this made the ascription of the Sobia to Sanpona deity logical. The initial clinical manifestations of guinea worm are often a constellation of symptoms. It begins with headache, body ache, fever, itching, swelling and rashes. Then, pain in a localized spot of its attack comes as forerunner of a blister. High temperature, especially accompanied by restlessness, then sets in.

Growing up, yours sincerely also suffered from Sobia. Days – epidemiologists later said it is 14 days – after returning from our oft dashes to streams with amateur hooks to catch tiny fishes, and upon contact with infected water through bathing, washing or fetching infected water, we suddenly went down with what our parents, borne out of repeated experience, immediately and magisterially diagnosed as guinea worm. Most times, the feet of the disease’s host suddenly appeared reddish and swollen. By then, said epidemiologists, adult female worms, which grow as long as up to one meter in length, develop inside the human subcutaneous tissue and when the worm releases its larvae, an ulcer develops on the host’s skin.

To combat the Sobia, native doctors found herbal remedy in the Oluganbe leaf. It is usually boiled and its water used to clean the ulcer. The leaves are then used as plaster on the burst worm site. So, as tribute to the rescue that the Oluganbe leaf provides those who suffer the strike of Sobia, a traditional Yoruba aphorism was invented as salutation to the Oluganbe. They say, ti sobia  y’o ba d’egbo, Oluganbe laa ke si, translated to mean, before guinea worm transmutes into a dangerous sore, Oluganbe is always called to the rescue. Beyond the strike of the Sobia, this wise saying has assumed a broader context as call on those who have ears, upon noticing early signals of an impending disaster, to immediately seek timely solutions to it.

Until its near total rout in this century, guinea worm, with the botanical name dracunculiasis, was a dreaded tropical disease. Epidemiologists reckon that, just like its Siamese, tuberculosis, guinea worm had been with man for over 3,000 years. Evidence gathered through surviving documents from physicians of antiquities even claim that man had suffered its affliction since 1,000 BC. It was a disease that afflicted poor rural areas with no safe drinking water, from South Africa, through the Middle East and down to West Africa. During the 19th and 20th centuries, guinea worm’s widespread strike was such that it afflicted as much as 48 million people yearly. This figure nosedived to 3.5 million patients in 1980 but, through the intervention of various world agencies, this waterborne disease was in 2021 reduced to about 15 cases. Today, it can only be found in countries like Chad, Ethiopia, Mali and South Sudan.

In his 55 days in government, like that Oluganbe aphorism, we should begin to conduct initial examination of the psychology and the emerging psychosis behind the operation of this government. If we do this, we will know what lies in wait for us. For instance, searchlight on the thought process behind the subsidy removal revealed that, rather than the “prepared to rule” and the “methodical and process-inclined” man that Tinubu had been touted to be, a policy of such monumental, sweeping and lives-threatening magnitude as removal of subsidy from fuel, was taken off-the-cuff and inflicted without the rigour needed. At his inauguration on May 29, Tinubu’s prepared speech had referenced the administration’s preparedness to “phas(e) out” subsidy which he said was in tune with his “Renewed Hope 2023” manifesto. Indeed, on its page 37, it says “we shall phase out the fuel subsidy.” This is taken to mean that government’s plan in the removal of subsidy was incremental. However, all of a sudden, while the speech was being read, the president announced that “the fuel subsidy is gone.”

Tinubu has been severally praised for the courage to take this decision. In the bid to stave off criticisms against it for lacking the governmental balls, the Muhammadu Buhari government claimed it sidestepped subsidy removal because it would have heralded electoral calamity for the APC. In a subsequent trip to France, asked whether it was impudence, boldness or courage that birthed the subsidy removal, Tinubu had told the Nigerian community in Paris that, “When I got to the podium, I was possessed with courage, and I said, ‘subsidy is gone.’”

Here, we will notice the onset of Sobia. What actually possessed the president at the Eagle Square on May 29? The first thing that this venture will yield is that, we will see the glaring equivocation in his usage of the word “possess.” Courage, being a positive attribute, does not harbor the negative portent associated with “possessed.” To be possessed is to be suddenly controlled, gripped and seized by an evil spirit. Did the president mean to convey the hidden metonym of what actually seized him on that day, to wit the draconian spirit of a totalitarian or a despot?

In what has turned out an ad-lib pronouncement, which the Punchnewspaper, in a highly applauded editorial comment last week, labeled a “shoot first and ask questions later” approach, Tinubu suddenly abrogated the joy of millions of Nigerians through a kick-and-follow economic policy of subsidy removal. Great as that policy is, it apparently never went through the crucible of critical assessment or a well-itemized provision of succor to its intended recipients. That was why, when the cries of its resultant pain became unbearable, government hurriedly rolled out plan to pay N8,000 to 12 million poor households. Bayoneted on all fronts for the policy’s tenuousness, government then announced plans to have it reviewed. The Punch editorial said “emerging evidence shows that the administration neither made preparations, nor undertook a thorough diagnosis of the existing conditions in the economy” before yanking off petrol subsidy. Within this time, the CBN also floated the naira, with the two policies standing as manifestations of the president’s laissez fare economic inclination of unfettered free market economy. As the newspaper noted, “reforms and the courage to initiate and see them through require meticulous planning, preparation, and fallback measures to absorb the shocks and protect critical economic sectors, and the vulnerable sections of the polity.” Which Tinubu never had.

Now, the euphoria of election, swearing in and ancillary make-believe fripperies of the presidential office are evaporating. It is assumed that with this reality dawning on them, Nigerians will be developing the right frame of mind to take critical look at a number of actions that have been taken in Tinubu’s 55 days in office. Some of them look like an imminent guinea worm affliction which may necessitate calling on the Oluganbe.

First is the manifestation of a totalist, personalist traits of power around the president. Scholars of authoritarian and totalitarian regimes have spoken of some regime features which, if found in a new government, could be dangerous indicators. One of such is that authoritarian and totalitarian regimes try to fuse everything and everyone under their personal control. The only distinguishing feature between a military autocracy and democratic government is the legislature. They both had the judiciary. We all remember the dust provoked by Aso Rock’s struggle to ensure the election of a pliable senate president, Speaker of the House of Representatives and leadership of the National Assembly. It is not an understatement that, though we may not have the tactless pronouncement that the legislature under Akpabio would approve every request brought by Tinubu like the previous senate did, the bendable lot in parliament today will recreate the Ahmed Lawan prototype. Already, the Senate President has begun to wear the Tinubu-like cap, trying to mimic the president’s appearance. He has literally carved a graven image of the president which he worships daily. Not even Lawan, in his genuflecting senate presidency, did this. And the president seems to enjoy the drama. Because it is his turn. Emilokan.

To follow in tow is a firm grip on and an APC that is solely an appendage of the presidency. Abdullahi Umar Ganduje, the 74-year old ex-Kano State governor, whose alleged dollar bribery roulette gathered notoriety a few years ago; money said to have been stuffed inside the enveloping comfort of the babanriga, is rumoured to be the lucky fiddle. Ganduje would only be too happy to carry the president’s spittle. Having learnt the ropes from Olusegun Obasanjo’s seemingly democratic route to despotically squeezing resignation letters from PDP chairmen during his government, Tinubu was said to have walked this path too to upstage the stumbling block that erstwhile APC chairman, Abdullahi Adamu, posed to him. The road is almost totally cleared of all thorns and briers now.

As showcase-worthy as the Lagos governance succession model is, critics have looked beyond this superficiality to decipher a strong tang of despotism and totalitarianism in it. It is also rumouredly flavoured by cultic abidance by the oath of fidelity to a regime of funneling of state funds into private purses. In Tinubu’s Lagos, what is called the Babasope syndrome operates. No one can wriggle into the echelon of political or governmental responsibility except the Fuhrer permits. It is a personality cult, a political buccaneer of totalitarian power.

Nigerians believe that despotic and totalitarian governments cannot thrive in their country. The collapse of the Ibrahim Babangida and Sani Abacha governments are cited to reinforce this. More importantly, despotism and totalitarianism usually occurred in military regimes. Fidel Castro of Cuba and General Alfredo Stroessner of Paraguay are rulers who personified those government types. Same for Hitler, Mussolini, Stalin and Mao. Totalitarians and despots may not, like Castro, possess accoutrements of power like fancy clothes, wealth or philandering liaisons. Under Stroessner, one of the key criteria for securing government employment was political affiliation. The Paraguayan bureaucracy under Stroessner was an enormous patronage network for loyal Colorados. Cronyism and corruption which his government symbolized were essential components of totalitarians which bound subordinates to Stroessner. Already, a group which called itself South West APC Support Group (SASG) is calling attention of the world to cells and layers of patronage for the president’s loyal Lagos cronies in what the group called Tinubu’s Lagosization of federal appointments.

Those who see Nigeria as impossible a place for a totalitarian or despotic ruler to thrive may however be engaging in mere semantic hairsplitting. This is because, even in a democracy, there are mild versions of despotism and totalitarianism. In Castro and Stroessner, the dictator is the 'moving spirit' of the totalist state. The totalitarian dictator also sees opposition, even neutrality, as treason. Godwin Emefiele and Abdulrusheed Bawa may have thus committed treason. Power is solely deployed for private ends and coloured by endemic authoritarian dictatorship. Again, national patrimony is piloted towards a huge private domain of spoils for loyalists.

Thinking in this mould of an emerging fertile ground being currently ploughed for despotism and totalitarianism may sound off-key and an over-situation of a mild issue to some people. However, we must realize that such governments creep in on the people like feral cats. By the time they mature into full-blown national challenge, it is always too late. As Rome was not built in a day, Rome was also not destroyed in a day. Rome’s destruction came by stealth; gradually. But before our Sobia becomes fluid-welling sore, we must seek the intervention of the Oluganbe leaf. We are the Oluganbe. We can tame the monster worm by being more critical of government; stop this childish Hallelujah chorus of effusive praise-singing of the people we elect and let us put our rulers on their toes.

Breakfast with Yebo Gogo, Kole Omotoso

In 2018 when news sieved in that that constellation of emeriti, Bankole Ajibabi Omotoso, had crept into Akure, Ondo State, our association, Ooye Development Initiative, (ODI) bated him like mousetrap does mice. Was Akure big enough to contain that hippopotamus-statured literary giant? I wondered. I, perhaps, was the most excited of the lot. I had read Omotoso’s works with doting wonder and imagined if he wasn’t a gnome or some genie. So, this day in September, as we drove towards the then pot-holes ridden Oda road to honour an appointment given us by the professor, I fantasized that I would meet a hippo. We waddled through a forest-like jungle into his home. We were later shocked to see that it lacked electricity but Omotoso didn’t mind.

The gate opened. Was I disappointed? Before us was a slim, dark, tall man. Since he opened the gate, was that the gateman? No. That was the Omotoso, the man whose literary fame and portraiture – literal and metaphorical – in South Africa and Nigeria, was that of a giant.

Prof was excited to see his Akure brothers – Olumide Origunloye, Sunday Falae, Abiodun Ayodele, Ayo Ajayi (Headmaster) and myself. His wife, affable in all ramifications, was there too. We hadn’t sat for long when breakfast jumped on the table. He spoke in fluent Akure and it did not take long for me to discover that in spite of his wide travels, Omotoso relished his culture jealously. One was that, he loathed the idea of anyone anglicizing his surname by adding ‘h” to his Omotoso to form an “Omotosho.” Then he took us round the expansive bungalow. What would he be doing with such “mansion”? I wondered. He explained. One of the open foyers would be an amphitheater where playwrights could come and activate their muse. He had actually come to finally settle in Akure, he said.

The reporter in me would not allow me to rest. As he took us round the house, I sought an interview appointment with him, which we fixed for the second day. We spent close to three hours on the interview. I asked him so many questions in the one and only interview I would have with the great octopus of Nigerian literature. Questions about his epic book, Just Before Dawn; relationship with Soyinka; was his house patterned after Soyinka’s middle-of-the-forest home as well?; why he studied Arabic in UI; how he became a South African; his NADECO activism; how his face became the face of South Africa, into becoming one of the most famous South Africans, adorning billboards in Jo’Burg and other cities as Yebo Gogo, so much that Nelson Mandela told him he was more famous than him, among others.

As we went into his orchard, Yebo Gogo gifted our brother, Headmaster, a plant he must have brought from South Africa. It aids memory in elderly persons, he said. Was he trying to ask Akure to etch him in its memory? I have wondered endlessly upon his passage.

Then Yebo Gogo promised to reciprocate our visit. He did and met us at Isopo, Headmaster’s home. Pleasant and unassuming.

As he left us after that evening out session, we never knew it was our last encounter with the literary dinosaur. He developed an ailment which, the best decision he took on the instant, was to leave immediately for South Africa to seek succor. He probably would have left us far earlier than the almost five years he lived after the diagnosis of the ailment. We exchanged calls and messages thereafter. When he read my column thereafter, he expressed delight that his Akure brother penned the stuffs.

Africa, Nigeria and Akure are already missing Omotoso. I just hope and pray that his remains would be brought to Akure. That is the land he cherished so much. Yes, South Africa clothed him from the usual coarse hostility that he would have received were he in Nigeria. It was still merely Omotoso’s dwelling place. It shouldn’t be his resting place.

Goodnight, our icon.