The Dangote Group, Africa’s largest conglomerate, is exploring the sale of a 12.5 percent stake in its newly commissioned refinery as it grapples with liquidity concerns, according to the Global rating agency, Fitch Rating.

In 2021, Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) acquired a 7.25 percent stake in the Dangote refinery’s project entity for $1.0 billion, with an option to purchase the remaining 12.75 percent stake by June 2024.

“Since the option has not been exercised, the group plans to divest a 12.75% stake in DORC in 2024,” Fitch Ratings said in its latest note.

Fitch added, “The group intends to service its significant syndicated loan maturing in August 2024 from the equity divestment. However, timely divestment and meeting the imminent maturity is highly uncertain in our view”.

Fitch noted that Dangote has immediate debt servicing requirements related to the syndicated loan raised to finance the construction of the refining company.

“Further delays in meeting the funding requirements would significantly increase the likelihood of financial restructuring or default and lead to further rating downgrade,” Fitch explained.

The company’s oil refinery operated at about 50 percent capacity in the first half of the year, at 325,000-375,000 bpd, Fitch said, while Dangote’s fertiliser business was hindered by inadequate gas supply.

“The EBITDA contribution from the refinery has been far below our previous projection as the facility is ramping up and optimizing production,” Fitch Rating said.

“We expect gradual improvement in EBITDA contribution from DORC going forward following the initiation of gasoline production in Q3 this year,” the rating agency added.

Fitch said Dangote group has senior secured debt raised at subsidiary levels amounting to $2.7 billion at end-2023 representing 49 percent of total group debt.

“The debt structure also includes an on-demand shareholder loans from its ultimate parent Greenview plc, amounting to $2.3 billion representing 43 percent of total debt,” Fitch said.

“We view the shareholder loans as subordinated debt. The company has also raised senior unsecured debt amounting to N350 billion with long-dated maturities in 2029 and 2032 to finance capex requirements,” Fitch added.

Two months ago, Aliko Dangote, the founder of Dangote Group revealed that he has paid off $2.4bn of the $5.5bn loan for his $19bn Lagos-based refinery.

“We borrowed the money based on our own balance sheet. I think we borrowed just over $5.5bn. But we also paid a lot of interest as we went along, because the project was delayed because of a lack of land, also the sand-filling took a long time. Almost five years or so we didn’t do anything.

“We actually started in 2018. We borrowed that much. We have, of course, paid interest and some principal, about $2.4bn. We’ve done very well. We now have only about $2.7bn left to be paid. So we’ve done very well for a project of that magnitude,” he said.

Businessday

The Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX) on Tuesday, extended its previous day losses declining by N371 billion as investors continue to react to the volatility in the global stock market. The benchmark All-Share Index (ASI) dropped by 653.89 basis points or 0.67 per cent, closing at 96,928.52 basis points from its opening value of 97,745.73.

Consequently, market capitalisation fell, ending the day at N55.00 trillion compared to N55.404 trillion at the start while Year-to-Date (Ytd) gain moderated at 30.5 percent. Experts warn that the ongoing volatility and domestic unrest could further affect investor confidence on the local bourse, although the global tension saw some stability at the close of Tuesday’s trading session as some indices showed signs of recovery.

Meanwhile, Tuesday’s negative performance on the NGX were driven by sell-offs in key stocks, including BUA Cement, Fidelity Bank, GTCO, Transcorp and 21 others. Despite the negative trend, trading volume and turnover showed improvement with a total of 449.2 million unit of shares valued at N6.74 billion changing hands in 9,381 deals. Compared with the previous NGX trading day, the data shows a 39 per cent improvement in volume, eight per cent improvement in turnover, but four per cent decline in deals.

The session saw 120 equities participating, with 30 gainers and 25 losers. National Salt Company (NASCON) and Academy Press led the gainers with a 10 per cent share price increase each, closing at N32.45 and N2.20 per share respectively. They were closely followed by a 9.89 percent gain in Oando closing at N30.55 per share.

Skyway Aviation Handling Co. also gained 9.80 per cent closing at N22.40 while RTBRISCOE added 9.78 per cent and ended the day’s trade at N1.01 per share.

Conversely, BUA Cement experienced the most significant decline, with a 9.99 per cent decrease to N128.90 per share, followed by Thomas Wyatt Nigeria losing 8.52 per cent to close at N1.61 per share while Champion Breweries lost 7.97 per cent and closed at N2.77 per share.

United Bank for Africa was the most active stock trading 62.8 million units of shares valued at N1.3 billion while exchanged 36 million shares at N1.1 billion.

Sun

Hamas names Oct 7 mastermind Sinwar as leader after Haniyeh assassination

Hamas named its Gaza leader Yahya Sinwar as successor to former political chief Ismail Haniyeh, who was assassinated in Tehran last week, the group said on Tuesday, in a move that reinforces the radical path pursued since the Oct. 7 attack on Israel.

Sinwar, the architect of the most devastating attack on Israel in decades, has been in hiding in Gaza, defying Israeli attempts to kill him since the start of the war.

"The Islamic Resistance Movement Hamas announces the selection of Commander Yahya Sinwar as the head of the political bureau of the movement, succeeding the martyr Commander Ismail Haniyeh, may Allah have mercy on him," the movement said in a brief statement.

News of the appointment was greeted with a salvo of rockets from Gaza from the bands of militants still fighting Israeli troops in the besieged enclave.

Sinwar, who spent half his adult life in Israeli prisons, was the most powerful Hamas leader left alive following the assassination of Haniyeh, which has left the region on the brink of a wider regional conflict after Iran vowed harsh retaliation.

Israel has not claimed responsibility for the assassination but it has said it killed other senior leaders, including Hamas deputy leader Saleh al-Arouri, who was killed in Beirut, and Mohammed Deif, the movement's military commander.

Born in a refugee camp in the southern Gaza city of Khan Younis, Sinwar, 61, was elected as Hamas' leader in Gaza in 2017 after gaining a reputation as a ruthless enforcer and an implacable enemy of Israel.

He was formerly head of the Al-Majd security apparatus which tracked, killed and punished Palestinians accused of collaborating with Israel’s secret service before he was jailed.

Reuters

WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Zelenskiy says Ukraine deployed more drones than Russia in July

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Tuesday that Ukraine was making good progress in manufacturing and employing drones and had used more of them last month in combat than had Russia.

Speaking in his nightly video address, Zelenskiy thanked all Ukrainian servicemen for their efforts in combat "in particular, all those soldiers and commanders who make good use of our possibilities with drones.

"Our Ukrainian defence forces are already leading the way in this regard, and in July our forces used more drones than did the occupiers," he said.

"This must become a sustainable trend at the front - across all types of drones that are in our units."

He said drones, including long-range versions, "are already affecting the war in strategic terms".

Ukraine is boosting its production capacity with help from its Western partners and the country's manufacturers will exceed over the course of 2024 contractual plans to produce one million drones, the president said.

Zelenskiy and other officials have long stressed the need for increased drone production and Ukrainian forces have increased long-range attacks on targets inside Russia, including oil refineries and other infrastructure.

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

Russian security chief estimates Ukraine’s military losses this summer

The Ukrainian military has lost more than 115,000 servicemen in the conflict with Moscow over the past two months, Russian Security Council Secretary Sergey Shoigu has claimed.

Some 3,000 units of equipment and more than 3,000 cars operated by Kiev’s troops have also been destroyed since June 14, he told journalists on Tuesday.

During the same period, the Russian military was able to capture 420 square kilometers (162 square miles) of territory from the Ukrainian forces, added Shoigu, who was Russia’s defense minister until a government reshuffle in May.

"All this could have been stopped if the demands set out by our president had been met [by Ukraine]. Therefore, our position is clear – the troops are moving forward,” he said.

In June, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that Moscow would immediately open peace talks with Kiev if it withdrew its troops from the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics, and the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions, which officially became part of the Russian state in the fall of 2022. According to Putin, Ukraine must also commit to maintaining a neutral status, “demilitarization,” and “denazification” as part of a possible deal.

Vladimir Zelensky instantly rejected the Russian president’s offer, describing it as an “ultimatum” and unacceptable. NATO, which is backing Kiev in the conflict, also described the proposal as “not serious.”

Shoigu stated that “every day of delay in making such a decision [on negotiations] results in the loss of control [by Kiev] over another part of territory that the Ukrainians consider theirs, and, most importantly, the loss of thousands of human lives.”

The Ukrainian people are “paying a high price”for the “illusion” of Zelensky and his associates that “the Europeans will organize another beautiful peace summit for Kiev, at which all their internal problems will resolve themselves,” he added.

"The window of opportunity for Ukraine is narrowing. The choice is up to the Ukrainian people,” the secretary of the Security Council warned.

Zelensky, who previously outright rejected the possibility of peace talks with Moscow, has recently changed his tune of the issue. He wrote on X (formerly Twitter) on Monday that his administration was aiming to work out a basis for a “just end” to the conflict with Russia this year.

However, he again insisted on implementing his so-called ‘peace formula’, which demands that Russia withdraw its troops from all territory claimed by Ukraine. Moscow has previously dismissed this plan as “detached from reality.”

In June, Putin said Ukraine was losing five times more troops than the Russian military, according to Moscow’s estimates.

Reuters/RT

Warren Buffett, one of the most successful investors in the world, has a reputation for his simple financial wisdom. His advice is certainly worth listening to, especially if it helps you avoid making money mistakes.

According to Buffett, here are 10 things poor people waste money on and what he does instead.

Low-Value Investments

“The most important investment you can make is in yourself,” Buffett has said, according to Inc. “That’s how knowledge builds up. Like compound interest.”

One of Buffett’s most famous tips, known as the Buffett formula, is to go to bed smarter each day.

According to Inc., Buffett recommends reading. He spends about 80% of his day reading, and he suggests that anyone hoping to achieve success should read 500 pages per day.

If you’re investing in something other than yourself right now, it might be time to rethink your strategy.

Credit Card Debt

Buffett is also very against credit card debt. He prefers to rely on cash instead of using a credit card. “I’ve got an American Express card, which I got in 1964,” Buffett told Yahoo Finance. But I pay cash 98% of the time.”

Quantity Over Quality

“It’s far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price,” Buffett wrote in his 1989 letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders.

Buffett won’t invest in something just because it’s cheap. Although he’s talking about investing in businesses, this can be applied to everyday life. When you prioritize quantity over quality, the short-term gains may not mean much (and it could cost you more) in the long run.

Unnecessary Spending

Buffett doesn’t care about having the latest technology or designer labels. According to AP Moneywise, he used a $20 flip phone for several years before upgrading to an iPhone in 2020.

His advice? “Do not save what is left after spending, but spend what is left after saving,” according to Moneywise.

New Cars

Cars are depreciating assets. According to Kelley Blue Book, most new vehicles have a 20% drop in value in the first year.

So instead of buying a new car, Buffett prefers to buy used vehicles at reduced prices.

“The truth is, I only drive about 3,500 miles a year, so I will buy a new car very infrequently,” he said, according to Forbes.

Full-Price Purchases

Even Warren Buffett looks for good deals. Years ago, Buffett once treated Bill Gates to a meal at a fast food restaurant and used coupons to help pay for the meal.

“Remember the laugh we had when we traveled together to Hong Kong and decided to get lunch at McDonald’s? You offered to pay, dug into your pocket, and pulled out … coupons!” Gates wrote in his and now-ex-wife Melinda’s 2017 annual letter.

“Melinda just found this photo of me and ‘the big spender.’ It reminded us how much you value a good deal,” Gates wrote, using the anecdote to segue to a discussion about the value of philanthropy.

Regular Nights Out

Buffett has a very simple diet and doesn’t like to go out much. In Buffett’s biography, “The Snowball: Warren Buffett and the Business of Life,” author Alice Schroeder quoted him as saying, “I like eating the same thing over and over and over again. I could eat a ham sandwich every day for fifty days in a row for breakfast,” Mashed reported.

Wasted Opportunities

In his early years, Buffett picked up side hustles and made money by delivering newspapers, selling used golf balls and buffing cars, as previously reported by GOBankingRates. He also looked for new opportunities, and when he couldn’t find any, he’d create them.

Gambling

At a 2007 Berkshire Hathaway shareholders meeting, Buffett called gambling “socially revolting,” according to The Motley Fool.

“I’m not a prude about it, but to quite an extent, gambling is a tax on ignorance,” he reportedly said, referring to the tax revenue generated by gambling.

“A government shouldn’t make it easy for people to take their Social Security checks and [waste them pulling] a handle.”

If you have extra money, don’t waste it on gambling.

Living Beyond Their Means

When you’re shopping and see something you like, ask yourself whether you really need it or just want it.

During a 2009 meeting at Emory University, Buffett said something to the effect that his goal is “not to make people envious.” He also said you can’t buy health or love and warned the audience not to confuse the cost of living with the standard of living, according to meeting notes from a student who attended, which appeared on the student’s Underground Value blog.

GOBankingRates

Key Developments

1. Protests Continue Despite Presidential Address

Despite President Bola Tinubu's national broadcast on Sunday calling for protesters to suspend their actions and engage in dialogue, demonstrations continued across several Nigerian states on Monday. The protests, now in their fifth day, are focused on demanding economic and political reforms to address the rising cost of living and other governance issues.

2. Arrest of Protest Leader in Abuja

Michael Lenin, a prominent organizer of the #EndBadGovernance protests, was reportedly arrested by the Department of State Services (DSS) in Abuja around 2 am on Monday. However, the DSS later denied having Lenin in custody, creating confusion about his whereabouts and the circumstances of his alleged arrest.

3. Protests in Ibadan and Osun

Demonstrations continued in Ibadan, led by activists who stated that Tinubu's broadcast did not address the protesters' concerns. In Osun State, protesters moved from Nelson Mandela Freedom Park to major streets in Osogbo, causing traffic disruptions.

4. Violence and Looting in Kaduna

Kaduna saw some of the most intense protest activity, with thousands of demonstrators marching through major streets. Reports indicate incidents of looting and breaking into private residences. Notably, protesters were seen waving Russian flags, expressing a desire for Russian intervention similar to recent events in Niger.

5. Curfews Imposed in Multiple States

In response to the unrest, 24-hour curfews were imposed in several areas:

- Kaduna State: Curfew in Kaduna and Zaria metropolis

- Plateau State: Curfew in Jos North and Bukuru metropolis

- Bauchi State: Curfew in Katagum Local Government Area

6. Government and Security Response

- Tinubu postponed a Federal Executive Council meeting to hold talks with security chiefs.

- The military leadership warned against calls for a coup and the hoisting of foreign flags, describing such actions as treasonable offenses.

- Security agencies have been deployed to maintain order and prevent further violence.

7. Concerns Raised by Northern Elders Forum

The Northern Elders Forum expressed disappointment that Tinubu's speech did not address the issue of banditry, which they claim has caused significant harm in northern regions.

8. Ongoing Demands of Protesters

Protesters continue to demand economic relief, including a reduction in fuel prices, and broader political reforms. Some groups have called for resignation of President Tinubu.

9. International Attention

The use of Russian flags by some protesters, particularly in northern states, has drawn international attention to the demonstrations and raised concerns about foreign influence.

10. Casualties and Violence

While the protests have been largely peaceful in many areas, there have been reports of violence and casualties in some states. Amnesty International has reported at least 13 deaths related to the protests, although this figure is disputed by police.

The situation remains fluid, with protests continuing despite government appeals and security measures. The coming days will be crucial in determining the trajectory of the demonstrations and the government's response to the protesters' demands.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

The Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited has launched the Utapate crude oil blend, a new grade of crude oil, into the international market. According to a statement released on Monday by NNPC spokesperson Femi Soneye, the first cargo of this new blend departed for Spain in July.

The Utapate crude oil blend is sourced from Oil Mining Lease (OML) 13, which is fully operated by NNPC Exploration and Production Limited (NEPL), the upstream subsidiary of NNPC. Located offshore Akwa Ibom State, Nigeria, the Utapate blend currently produces 28,000 barrels per day, with potential to increase to 50,000 barrels per day. The new crude grade has a sulphur content of 0.0655%.

Spanish oil company Repsol won the tender for the initial cargo of 950,000 barrels of the Utapate blend, which is comparable to the highly sought-after Amenam crude. Additionally, Gulf Transport and Trading, another leading crude oil dealer, has secured tenders for the Utapate cargoes for August and September.

Last year, during the Argus European Crude Conference in London, NNPC Ltd announced the launch of the Nembe crude oil, produced by the NNPC/Aiteo operated Oil Mining Lease (OML) 29 Joint Venture. Similar to the Nembe grade, the Utapate crude oil blend features low sulphur content and a low carbon footprint due to flare gas elimination, aligning with the specifications of major European buyers.

Soneye highlighted that this development demonstrates NNPC's commitment to increasing Nigeria’s crude oil production and expanding reserves through the development of new assets.

Former President Olusegun Obasanjo has warned that those profiting from fuel importation will likely try to undermine the Dangote Petroleum Refinery. This statement comes in response to allegations by Aliko Dangote, President of the Dangote Group, about efforts by certain "mafias" to sabotage the $20 billion refinery project.

In an interview with the Financial Times, Obasanjo highlighted the significance of the Dangote refinery, describing it as a venture that should inspire investment in Nigeria from both locals and foreigners. “Aliko’s investment in a refinery, if it goes well, should encourage both Nigerians and non-Nigerians to invest in Nigeria. If those who are selling or supplying refined products for Nigeria feel that they will lose the lucrative opportunity, they will also make every effort to get him frustrated,” Obasanjo stated.

Officials from the Dangote Group have recently complained that international oil companies are hindering the refinery by refusing to sell crude oil or by selling it at a premium of up to $6 above the normal price. They also accused the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) of issuing licenses to import substandard fuel. The NMDPRA denied these claims, arguing that Dangote diesel is inferior compared to imported products. NMDPRA Chief Executive Farouk Ahmed stated that the country would continue importing fuel to prevent a monopoly by the Dangote Group.

Obasanjo further criticized Nigeria's heavy reliance on oil, neglecting gas and agriculture. "I believe we made a very, very deadly mistake. We put all our eggs in one basket of oil. We even ignored gas. We were flaring gas, which is a very important commodity. We ignored agriculture, which should have been the centerpiece of our economic development," he said.

Reflecting on his presidency, Obasanjo recounted how he invited Shell to manage the country’s refineries, but the company declined due to the sector's corruption and poor maintenance. “When I was President, I invited Shell and I said, look, come and take equity participation and run our refineries for us. They refused. They said our refineries have not been well maintained. We have brought amateurs rather than bringing professionals. They said there’s too much corruption with the way our refinery is run and maintained. And they didn’t want to get involved in such a mess,” he explained.

Obasanjo questioned the repeated promises to fix government refineries, noting that the problems have only worsened. “How many times have they told us that? And at what price? Those problems, as far as the government refineries are concerned, have never gone away. They have even increased. So if you have a problem like that and that problem is not removed then you aren’t going anywhere,” he said.

He also criticized President Bola Tinubu’s approach to removing fuel subsidies, arguing that the government should have considered the potential hardship and ways to mitigate it. “There’s a lot of work that needs to be done. Not just wake up one morning and say you removed the subsidy. Because of inflation, the subsidy that we have removed is not gone. It has come back,” Obasanjo stressed.

Obasanjo emphasized the need for investor confidence in Nigeria, advocating for a shift from a transactional to a transformational economy. He also expressed concern over youth unrest due to unemployment, warning that Nigeria might be sitting on a "keg of gunpowder." “Our youth are restive. And they are restive because they have no skill. They have no empowerment. They have no employment. We are all sitting on a keg of gunpowder. And my prayer is that we will do the right thing before it’s too late,” he warned.

Nigeria has suffered another nationwide blackout – the fifth time in 2024.

According to various distribution companies (DisCos), their feeders became inactive, resulting in widespread blackouts across the country.

Data from the Transmission Company of Nigeria’s (TCN’s) generation trend showed that the grid collapsed at about 1:30 pm on Monday and dropped from 3,241 megawatts (MW) to 1,255MW in an hour.

As at the time of this report, out of 21 plants connected to the grid, five generation companies (GenCos) are down while 17 are generating power.

The TCN is yet to give reasons for the collapse.

Confirming the incident, the Abuja Electricity Distribution Company (AEDC) on X, said the grid collapsed at 2.30pm.

“We understand that some of our customers are still without power due to a system failure from the national grid at 2.55pm today, 5th August 2024,” AEDC posted.

“Please be assured that the system is gradually stabilising, and we are working diligently with all relevant stakeholders to restore power to the affected areas as quickly as possible.”

The national electricity grid had suffered a collapse five times in 2024.

The first time the grid collapsed was on February 4.

The grid experienced another collapse on March 28.

The blackout also happened on April 15, and July 6, for the third and fourth time respectively.

On May 1, TCN said the number of system collapses has reducedsignificantly in the country.

According to Ndidi Mbah, TCN’s spokesperson, the grid disturbances declined by 76.47 percent in five years.

Mbah said the country recorded 20 system collapses from 2020 till May 1, compared to the 85 grid disturbances between 2015 to 2019.

Meanwhile, on April 18, the commission said it had deployed a digital system called generation dip/loss detection system (GLDS) to swiftly detect and respond to sudden drops in power generation.

The Cable

Proxy forces armed by Iran could take part in retaliation against Israel over Hamas leader's killing

As Iran threatens to respond to the suspected Israeli assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, the regional militias that the Islamic Republic has armed for decades could play a role in any attack.

Here’s a look at Iran’s history of arming militias, its allies in the region and what part they could play.

Why has Iran armed proxy forces?

Iran’s policy of arming militias took root in the aftermath of the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Before it, the U.S. provided major weapon systems including F-14 Tomcat fighter jets to the government of Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. After the revolution and the U.S. Embassy hostage crisis, those shipments and needed maintenance programs stopped. Iran’s eight-year war with Iraq in the 1980s destroyed much of its arsenal. International sanctions on Iran, including over its nuclear program, also have kept it from receiving new arms while Israel and Gulf Arab states allied with the U.S. have received advanced weapons. While developing its own missile program, Iran can’t match those sophisticated weapons. It relies on militias as an asymmetric threat to squeeze both Israel and the United States.

Who are Iran’s regional allies?

Iran’s arming began in earnest in the 1980s with Shiite forces in Lebanon fighting against Israel. They became the Hezbollah militia. The arming expanded with the 2003 U.S.-led invasion of Iraq that toppled dictator Saddam Hussein, a longtime foe of Tehran. Iran strongly backed Syrian President Bashar Assad in his country’s long war. And Iran has continued when the opportunity has arisen, even arming Sunni militants while viewing itself as the world’s defender of Shiite Muslims. Those relationships are managed by Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard, one of the most powerful armed groups in the Middle East.

The militias in Iran’s self-described “Axis of Resistance” include these:

Iraqi militias

In Iraq, Iran supported a slew of forces that mobilized in 2014 to battle the Islamic State group. Those state-sanctioned, mainly Shiite militias, known as the Popular Mobilization Forces, have grown into a powerful political faction, armed with rockets, drones and other weaponry. The International Institute for Strategic Studies puts their strength at some 180,000 fighters. Other smaller or little-known militant groups have emerged and claimed attacks against U.S. forces as well amid this Israel-Hamas war. Iran-backed armed groups attacked U.S. personnel in Iraq more than 60 times between October and Feb. 4, according to the Congressional Research Service. The deadliest came on Jan. 28, when the U.S. said a drone launched by Iranian-backed Iraqi militias hit a facility known as Tower 22 in Jordan on the Syrian border, killing three American troops and wounding dozens of others. In response, U.S. airstrikes hit more than 85 targets at seven locations, including command and control headquarters, intelligence centers, rockets and missiles, drone and ammunition storage sites and other facilities connected to the militias or the Guard’s expeditionary Quds Force.

Lebanon’s Hezbollah

Hezbollah formed in 1982 amid Israel’s occupation of southern Lebanon. Israel remains highly wary of Hezbollah, particularly over the vast missile arsenal it is believed to possess and its battle-hardened forces who also supported Assad in Syria. While Israel has sophisticated missile defenses including its Iron Dome system, a mass barrage of fire from Hezbollah and others at the same time could overwhelm the country. Estimates suggest Hezbollah has an arsenal of 150,000 rockets and missiles, including precision-guided missiles. The militia also has been blamed for suicide bombings in the past, including a 1983 bombing in Beirut that killed 241 American servicemen, though the group maintains it wasn’t behind the attack. Hezbollah also has drones and surface-to-air missile systems. Hezbollah’s forces number as many as 25,000 full-time fighters, with additional tens of thousands in reserves, according to an Israeli military assessment. Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah in 2021 said the group had 100,000 trained fighters.

Palestinian militant forces

Despite being Sunni, both the Palestinian militant group Hamas and Islamic Jihad have received weaponry and other materiel from Iran. The groups, however, have been struck hard by Israel since the Oct. 7 Hamas attack that began the war, which saw militants kill 1,200 people and take 250 others hostage. Israel’s war on Hamas in the Gaza Strip since has killed at least 39,580 Palestinians, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry, which does not distinguish between civilians and combatants in its count. Israel’s military says it has killed roughly 15,000 militants in the war.

Yemen’s Houthi rebels

The Houthis have held Yemen’s capital, Sanaa, since 2014 as part of that country’s ruinous war. They follow the Shiite Zaydi faith, a branch of Shiite Islam that is almost exclusively found in Yemen. While broadly an insurgent force, the group with Iran’s support is now able to launch drone and missile attacks that have drastically disrupted shipping in the Red Sea corridor and now even reach Israel. The U.S. Navy’s efforts at stopping the shipping attacks have led to the most intense continuous combat its sailors have faced since World War II, but has yet to end the assaults. The amount of direct command Iran wields over the Houthis, however, remains a matter of debate among experts. The Houthis’ attacks have raised their international profile while cracking down on dissent at home. The rebels claim they’ve recruited 200,000 additional fighters since launching their attacks. The rebels and their allies have a fighting force of some 20,000 fighters, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

What could any retaliatory strike look like?

In April following an Israeli attack on the Iranian Embassy compound in Syria, Iran launched 170 bomb-carrying drones, more than 30 cruise missiles and more than 120 ballistic missiles toward Israel. Israel, the U.S. and other nations shot down many of the projectiles, some of which came from Yemen. Iran could launch a similar assault, but this time Hezbollah may get involved as the militia seeks revenge for the Israeli strike last week killing senior commander Fouad Shukur. Such an assault could strain Israeli air defenses, meaning more missile strikes raising the risk of casualties — and of a further escalation experts fear could lead to a wider regional war.

AP