Super User

Super User

Amnesty International has reported that at least 24 protesters were killed and 1,200 others arrested during the recent #EndBadGovernance protests in Nigeria. The nationwide demonstrations, which lasted from August 1 to August 10, were driven by widespread frustration over the country’s economic hardship and governance issues.

The protests, initially peaceful, turned violent in several regions, with security forces reportedly using teargas and live ammunition against demonstrators and journalists. Cases of looting and vandalism of both public and private property were also reported, particularly in some northern states.

In a report titled “Bloody August: Nigerian Government’s Violent Crackdown on #EndBadGovernance Protests,” released on Thursday, Amnesty International accused Nigerian authorities of engaging in acts of torture and other forms of ill-treatment against protesters. The organization criticized the government for failing to uphold the right to freedom of expression and peaceful assembly.

“The Nigerian authorities killed at least 24 protesters and arrested over 1,200 during the nationwide protests,” the report stated. “Many of those arrested have been subjected to unjust trials based on fabricated charges, highlighting the government’s ongoing efforts to criminalize dissent and suppress protests.”

Speaking at the report’s presentation in Kano, Isa Sanusi, Amnesty International’s Country Director, revealed that among the victims were two children and 20 young adults. He described the protests as a period of severe lawlessness, with security forces allegedly firing live rounds at close range.

Sanusi also highlighted the physical and emotional toll on survivors. “Two protesters sustained gunshot injuries to their arms and legs, while others were suffocated by the indiscriminate use of teargas,” he said, adding that the actual death toll might be higher due to alleged efforts by authorities to conceal the extent of the violence.

He called on President Bola Tinubu to launch a thorough and transparent investigation into the human rights violations committed during the protests.

“Peaceful protest over government policies has become a matter of life and death in Nigeria,” Sanusi said. “The government must ensure that those responsible for these violations are identified and held accountable through fair and impartial trials. Victims and their families deserve justice and effective remedies.”

The British government earned over N40 billion processing visas for Nigerian nationals between June 2023 to the same month in 2024.

According to Marc Owen, director of visa, status and information services at UK visas and immigration, at least 225,000 UK visa applications from Nigeria were processed in the period under review.

Owen spoke at the launch of Africa’s biggest UK visa application centre (VAC) in Lagos.

“In the year to June 2024, we processed more than 225k UK visas for Nigerian nationals across all categories and this new partnership demonstrates our continued commitment to ensuring our visa services are accessible, efficient and meet the needs of all applicants,” the British High Commission in Lagos quoted Owen as saying in a statement.

“I’m delighted to be here in person as we celebrate this important moment together with our customers and partners.”

Although Owen did not reveal the exact figures of visa applications, an analysis using the UK six-month standard visitor fee of $150 against the 225,000 Nigerians cited as the least figure, shows that the UK realised over $34 million from processing.

Using an average exchange rate of N1,200 between June 2023 and June 2024, this would amount to over N40 billion.

Visa application fees are non-refundable even if processing turns out unsuccessful.

NIGERIA RECORDED HIGH REJECTIONS

Earlier this year, data from the British government showed that Nigeria was among five countries that saw a rise in study visa rejection rates in the second half of 2023.

In Q4 2022, Nigeria saw one in 31 applications rejected, while in Q4 2023, around one in eight were declined.

Vietnam, Indonesia, and Saudi Arabia also saw high visa rejection rates, albeit at smaller accruals.

India was the only country where declined application numbers trumped Nigeria’s.

The data showed that issuances to Nigerians were down by 63 percent when juxtaposed with the last three months of 2022.

The increase in rejections came amid tightened visa restrictions for immigrants in the UK.

The British government said changes to policies on dependent visas stirred negative sentiments in both countries, following tweaks to the graduate route post-study work visa.

Many Nigerians are now turning to the United States for succour.

In the 2023/2024 academic year, Nigeria was the seventh largest source of international students globally and the highest in Africa, with 20,029 enrollees in the US.

The enrolment figures for Nigeria amounted to a 13.5 percent increase from the previous year for the country.

Editor’s note: This story has been adjusted to reflect the average exchange rate of the period — N1,200 to $1. 

 

The Cable

Israel and Hezbollah trade accusations of ceasefire violations

The Israeli military said its air force struck a facility used by Hezbollah to store mid-range rockets in southern Lebanon on Thursday, after both sides accused each other of breaching a ceasefire that aims to halt over a year of fighting.

Israel said it also opened fire on Thursday towards what it called "suspects" with vehicles arriving at several areas in the southern zone, saying it was a breach of the truce with Iran-backed armed group Hezbollah, which came into effect on Wednesday.

Hezbollah lawmaker Hassan Fadlallah in turn accused Israel of violating the deal.

"The Israeli enemy is attacking those returning to the border villages," Fadlallah told reporters, adding "there are violations today by Israel, even in this form".

The Lebanese army later accused Israel of violating the ceasefire several times on Wednesday and Thursday.

The exchange of accusations highlighted the fragility of the ceasefire, which was brokered by the United States and France to end the conflict, fought in parallel with the Gaza war. The truce lasts for 60 days in the hope of reaching a permanent cessation of hostilities.

Israel's airstrike on Thursday was the first since the truce took effect on Wednesday morning. Lebanese security sources and the Al Jadeed broadcaster said it took place near Baysariyah, north of the Litani River.

The ceasefire deal stipulates that unauthorized military facilities south of the Litani River should be dismantled, but does not mention military facilities north of the river.

Earlier, Israeli tank fire hit five towns and some agricultural fields in southern Lebanon, state media and Lebanese security sources said, saying at least two people were wounded.

All the areas lie within 2 km (1.2 miles) of the Blue Line demarcating the border between Lebanon and Israel, in an area the Israeli military has announced as a no-go zone along the border, even after the deal was agreed.

The Israeli military said in a statement it had identified several suspicious activities that posed a threat and breached conditions of the ceasefire agreement.

"Any deviation from this agreement will be enforced with fire," said Chief of the General Staff Herzt.

Later on Thursday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he had directed the military to be prepared for intense fighting if the ceasefire is violated.

"We are enforcing powerfully," Netanyahu said in an interview with Israel's Channel 14. "But if needed I gave a directive to the IDF - be prepared in case there is a violation of the framework of the ceasefire, for an intense war."

Lebanese families displaced from their homes near the southern border have tried to return to check on their properties. But Israeli troops remain stationed within Lebanese territory in towns along the border and Reuters reporters heard surveillance drones flying over parts of southern Lebanon.

The Israeli military on Thursday renewed a curfew restricting the movement of residents of southern Lebanon south of the Litani river between 5 p.m. (1500 GMT) and 7 a.m.

CEASEFIRE TERMS

The agreement, a rare diplomatic feat in a region racked by conflict, ended the deadliest confrontation between Israel and the Hezbollah militant group in years. But Israel is still fighting its other arch foe, the Palestinian militant group Hamas, in the Gaza Strip, in response to the deadly Hamas-led raid on southern Israel on Oct. 7, 2023.

Israeli strikes on Lebanon have killed at least 3,961 people and injured 16,520 others since October 2023, the Lebanese health ministry said on Thursday. The figures do not differentiate between civilians and combatants.

Hezbollah strikes have killed 45 civilians in northern Israel and the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. At least 73 Israeli soldiers have been killed in northern Israel, the Golan Heights, and in combat in southern Lebanon, according to Israeli authorities.

Under the ceasefire terms, Israeli forces can take up to 60 days to withdraw from southern Lebanon but neither side can launch offensive operations.

Netanyahu waged the offensive against Hezbollah, saying Israelis in the north of the country should be able to return after being evacuated because of rocket fire from Lebanon.

Some 60,000 people evacuated from homes in the north have still not been directed to return.

Hezbollah has said its fighters "remain fully equipped to deal with the aspirations and assaults of the Israeli enemy" and that its forces will monitor Israel's withdrawal from Lebanon "with their hands on the trigger".

The group has been weakened by casualties and the killing of its leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah and other commanders by Israel.

Announcing the Lebanon accord on Tuesday, U.S. President Joe Biden said he would now renew his push for a ceasefire agreement in Gaza and urged Israel and Hamas to seize the moment. Months of efforts to negotiate a ceasefire have yielded scant progress.

Israeli military strikes killed at least 21 Palestinians across the Gaza Strip on Thursday, medics said, as forces stepped up their bombardment of central areas and tanks pushed deeper into the north and south of the enclave.

 

Reuters

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

Oreshnik missiles could be used to strike Kiev – Putin

The Russian military is selecting targets in Ukraine for further possible strikes using the country’s new Oreshnik hypersonic ballistic missiles, President Vladimir Putin warned on Thursday.

Potential targets for the missiles could be “decision making centers” in Kiev, the Russian leader warned, during a meeting with Moscow’s key regional allies in Astana, Kazakhstan.

Military facilities could also be targeted, along with defense and industrial enterprises – “especially since the Kiev regime has repeatedly attempted to strike at facilities of national importance in Russia,”Putin explained.

Moscow already has several Oreshnik missiles at its disposal and has begun the large-scale production of the advanced weapon system, he added.

Addressing his counterparts from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), Putin reiterated that the first Oreshnik launch last week had been Moscow’s response to Western countries granting permission for Kiev to fire long-range weapons deep inside Russia. This made NATO member states directly involved in the conflict, he added.

Last night, Russia launched around 90 missile and 100 drone attacks against military targets in Ukraine, he said. It came in response to Kiev’s continued attacks using Western weapons. More Oreshnik strikes may follow, he warned.

“Oreshnik has no counterparts in the world, of course, and I believe none will appear anytime soon,” he said.

“[The system has] dozens of homing warheads that attack their targets at Mach-10 speed… Their temperature reaches 4,000 degrees,” the president added. “Anything located in the strike center is obliterated into elemental particles, reduced to dust.”

Oreshik can destroy highly fortified targets buried deep underground, Putin said. A massive strike with such missiles would be comparable to a nuclear strike in its force, he added.

We have several units ready for use now. Certainly, should the strikes with Western long-range weapons on our territory continue, we will respond, including by launching more combat tests of Oreshnik systems.

Speaking at the CSTO meeting, Putin compared Russian systems with similar specifications to US ATACMS missiles and French/British SCALP/Storm Shadow missiles, which Kiev has used against Russia. Moscow’s weapons are superior in some aspects, and the country produces significantly more of them that the entire NATO bloc can, he claimed.

 

WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Russia hits Ukrainian energy facilities, Kyiv sees 'despicable escalation'

Russia unleashed on Thursday its second big attack on Ukraine's energy infrastructure this month, triggering deep power cuts across the country.

President Vladimir Putin said Moscow had struck in response to Ukraine's strikes on Russian territory with U.S. medium-range ATACMS missiles. He said Russia's future targets could include "decision-making centres" in Kyiv.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy accused Russia of a "despicable escalation", saying it had used cruise missiles with cluster munitions.

Later in his nightly video address, Zelenskiy said he was speaking to Western leaders, including NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, to forge a response to "Russia's attempt to make the situation more unbearable and drag out the war".

"Now is the time to strengthen our positions - the position of Ukraine and our partners," he said.

U.S. President Joe Biden condemned the Russian attack as "outrageous," saying in a statement that it serves as a "another reminder of the urgency and importance of supporting the Ukrainian people in their defense against Russian aggression."

Over 1 million people lost power in the immediate aftermath of the strikes, and millions more had their existing schedule of rolling power cuts intensified.

Ukraine's air force said Russia used 91 missiles and 97 drones in Thursday's attack. It said 12 of those had hit their targets, most of which were energy and fuel facilities.

"The enemy is using a large number of missiles and drones. Their massive use in certain areas often exceeds the number of means of (air defence) cover," the air force said in a statement.

Infrastructure facilities were damaged in nine regions, Ukraine's Interior Ministry said.

POWER CUTS DURING WINTER

The attack reinforced fears of long power cuts during the winter months as temperatures hover around zero.

Officials said it was the 11th major strike on the energy system since March. Russia has knocked out about half Ukraine's available generating capacity during the war, damaged the distribution system and forced authorities to impose long blackouts.

The air force said it had shot down 79 missiles and downed 35 drones, while 62 drones were "lost", meaning it was likely they had been disrupted by electronic warfare.

A source in the energy sector said Ukraine had disconnected all nuclear power units from the grid before the attack to protect them. Ukraine gets more than half of its electricity from nuclear plants.

Ukraine's state grid operator Ukrenergo announced deep power cuts across the country because of damage from the attacks, warning of at least 12 hours without electricity for some consumers.

All missiles or drones aimed at the capital Kyiv were brought down, officials said.

THERMAL AND RADAR DECOYS

The air force said Russia was using thermal and radar decoys to trick Ukrainian air defences, and putting electronic warfare devices on its missiles.

"All this significantly complicates the operation of Soviet-made anti-aircraft missile systems ... Western systems work much more effectively in such conditions, but Ukraine does not have enough to reliably cover hundreds of critical infrastructure facilities," it said.

It said foggy weather conditions also made it harder for machine gunners to spot drones.

More than 33 months after Russia invaded Ukraine, Russian ground forces are advancing at their fastest pace in two years.

Russia fired a new hypersonic intermediate-range ballistic missile at Ukraine this month after the United States allowed Kyiv to strike Russian territory with advanced Western missiles.

"Putin does not want peace. We must force him into peace through strength," Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said, reiterating Kyiv's call for more air defence and long-range capabilities from Western allies.

In western Ukraine, Lviv regional governor Maksym Kozytskyi said Thursday's Russian strikes had cut off electricity to about 523,000 people. Power was also cut to nearly 500,000 people in the Volyn and Rivne regions, their governors said, and disrupted in the Khmelnytskyi and Zhytomyr regions.

State oil and gas firm Naftogaz said its facilities had been attacked in the morning airstrikes.

Officials across Ukraine said they were turning on generators to ensure emergency heat and water supplies to hospitals, schools and other critical facilities during bitter winter weather.

 

RT/Reuters

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

Oreshnik missiles could be used to strike Kiev – Putin

The Russian military is selecting targets in Ukraine for further possible strikes using the country’s new Oreshnik hypersonic ballistic missiles, President Vladimir Putin warned on Thursday.

Potential targets for the missiles could be “decision making centers” in Kiev, the Russian leader warned, during a meeting with Moscow’s key regional allies in Astana, Kazakhstan.

Military facilities could also be targeted, along with defense and industrial enterprises – “especially since the Kiev regime has repeatedly attempted to strike at facilities of national importance in Russia,”Putin explained.

Moscow already has several Oreshnik missiles at its disposal and has begun the large-scale production of the advanced weapon system, he added.

Addressing his counterparts from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), Putin reiterated that the first Oreshnik launch last week had been Moscow’s response to Western countries granting permission for Kiev to fire long-range weapons deep inside Russia. This made NATO member states directly involved in the conflict, he added.

Last night, Russia launched around 90 missile and 100 drone attacks against military targets in Ukraine, he said. It came in response to Kiev’s continued attacks using Western weapons. More Oreshnik strikes may follow, he warned.

“Oreshnik has no counterparts in the world, of course, and I believe none will appear anytime soon,” he said.

“[The system has] dozens of homing warheads that attack their targets at Mach-10 speed… Their temperature reaches 4,000 degrees,” the president added. “Anything located in the strike center is obliterated into elemental particles, reduced to dust.”

Oreshik can destroy highly fortified targets buried deep underground, Putin said. A massive strike with such missiles would be comparable to a nuclear strike in its force, he added.

We have several units ready for use now. Certainly, should the strikes with Western long-range weapons on our territory continue, we will respond, including by launching more combat tests of Oreshnik systems.

Speaking at the CSTO meeting, Putin compared Russian systems with similar specifications to US ATACMS missiles and French/British SCALP/Storm Shadow missiles, which Kiev has used against Russia. Moscow’s weapons are superior in some aspects, and the country produces significantly more of them that the entire NATO bloc can, he claimed.

 

WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Russia hits Ukrainian energy facilities, Kyiv sees 'despicable escalation'

Russia unleashed on Thursday its second big attack on Ukraine's energy infrastructure this month, triggering deep power cuts across the country.

President Vladimir Putin said Moscow had struck in response to Ukraine's strikes on Russian territory with U.S. medium-range ATACMS missiles. He said Russia's future targets could include "decision-making centres" in Kyiv.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy accused Russia of a "despicable escalation", saying it had used cruise missiles with cluster munitions.

Later in his nightly video address, Zelenskiy said he was speaking to Western leaders, including NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, to forge a response to "Russia's attempt to make the situation more unbearable and drag out the war".

"Now is the time to strengthen our positions - the position of Ukraine and our partners," he said.

U.S. President Joe Biden condemned the Russian attack as "outrageous," saying in a statement that it serves as a "another reminder of the urgency and importance of supporting the Ukrainian people in their defense against Russian aggression."

Over 1 million people lost power in the immediate aftermath of the strikes, and millions more had their existing schedule of rolling power cuts intensified.

Ukraine's air force said Russia used 91 missiles and 97 drones in Thursday's attack. It said 12 of those had hit their targets, most of which were energy and fuel facilities.

"The enemy is using a large number of missiles and drones. Their massive use in certain areas often exceeds the number of means of (air defence) cover," the air force said in a statement.

Infrastructure facilities were damaged in nine regions, Ukraine's Interior Ministry said.

POWER CUTS DURING WINTER

The attack reinforced fears of long power cuts during the winter months as temperatures hover around zero.

Officials said it was the 11th major strike on the energy system since March. Russia has knocked out about half Ukraine's available generating capacity during the war, damaged the distribution system and forced authorities to impose long blackouts.

The air force said it had shot down 79 missiles and downed 35 drones, while 62 drones were "lost", meaning it was likely they had been disrupted by electronic warfare.

A source in the energy sector said Ukraine had disconnected all nuclear power units from the grid before the attack to protect them. Ukraine gets more than half of its electricity from nuclear plants.

Ukraine's state grid operator Ukrenergo announced deep power cuts across the country because of damage from the attacks, warning of at least 12 hours without electricity for some consumers.

All missiles or drones aimed at the capital Kyiv were brought down, officials said.

THERMAL AND RADAR DECOYS

The air force said Russia was using thermal and radar decoys to trick Ukrainian air defences, and putting electronic warfare devices on its missiles.

"All this significantly complicates the operation of Soviet-made anti-aircraft missile systems ... Western systems work much more effectively in such conditions, but Ukraine does not have enough to reliably cover hundreds of critical infrastructure facilities," it said.

It said foggy weather conditions also made it harder for machine gunners to spot drones.

More than 33 months after Russia invaded Ukraine, Russian ground forces are advancing at their fastest pace in two years.

Russia fired a new hypersonic intermediate-range ballistic missile at Ukraine this month after the United States allowed Kyiv to strike Russian territory with advanced Western missiles.

"Putin does not want peace. We must force him into peace through strength," Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said, reiterating Kyiv's call for more air defence and long-range capabilities from Western allies.

In western Ukraine, Lviv regional governor Maksym Kozytskyi said Thursday's Russian strikes had cut off electricity to about 523,000 people. Power was also cut to nearly 500,000 people in the Volyn and Rivne regions, their governors said, and disrupted in the Khmelnytskyi and Zhytomyr regions.

State oil and gas firm Naftogaz said its facilities had been attacked in the morning airstrikes.

Officials across Ukraine said they were turning on generators to ensure emergency heat and water supplies to hospitals, schools and other critical facilities during bitter winter weather.

 

RT/Reuters

Donald Trump's election overshadowed Kemi Badenoch's emergence as the leader of the Tory Party of Britain. Yet, no one gets the worst political job in one of the world’s oldest political parties and walks away quietly.

This is especially the case when the candidate is a straight-talking, ideological woman and a child of an immigrant in a largely conservative society.

It was not a mistake that a section of the British press framed the last contest for the Tory leadership as one of the worst match-ups in recent times, if not in its history. 

Here was Badenoch, a black woman (who doesn’t like to be described in racial terms), in a contest against three men, two of them white, and the last man standing, Robert Jenrick, was snow white. Still, all, including Badenoch, were caricatured as the miserable, surviving heirs of a once-illustrious political party.

Like Trump like Kemi?

Some have compared her with Trump, which is nonsense. The only way she resembles Trump is in her plain speaking, which is a rare quality in politics. Comparing Badenoch to Trump for depth, intellect, or character is a disservice to demagoguery for which Trump has no equal.

Although she had only been in the House of Commons for seven years, her rise was forged in the extraordinary turmoil of British politics in the last decade. She held junior cabinet positions under Boris Johnson, Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak. She has been in politics since she was 25 and unsuccessfully contested a seat in the London Assembly in 2012.

Two years ago, after Johnson's fall, Badenoch contested the Tory leadership position but lost to Truss, whose eventual reign was as brief and chaotic as her competence. In love, as in politics, familiarity ultimately undermines affection. That partly explains why the Tories lost the last general election long before Labour won. However, the killer punch for the Tories was not this natural course of affairs but the rise of Johnson and his succession by Truss, two of the most incompetent Tory leaders in decades.

Scapegoats and guardian angels

More than any leader in modern British history, these two dragged the Tory party to the left at the expense of its traditional base, giving ground to right-wing clowns like Nigel Farage and others. But the besotted press did not see that—or they pretended they didn’t—until, despite Rishi Sunak’s best efforts at Tory house cleaning, the party suffered one of its worst defeats from years of accumulated rot. 

It’s to Badenoch’s credit that, despite that setback and criticisms of her political views – some deserved – she gave it another shot and has emerged as the first black leader of one of the world’s oldest political parties. 

But her foes in the culture brigade and the furious guardian angels of the Tory legacy won’t let her sit before fetching the long knives. They are upset. How did the party of the durable Winston Churchill, whose leadership saved his country and the world from Hitler, fall this low? 

What has become of the party of Margaret Thatcher, who transformed the UK economy with her free-market policies and laid the foundation for the most extended spell of Tory rule? How can Badenoch, a poor imitation of Thatcher’s ideals, even if she claims her an icon, save the Tories from what looks like a long winter?

‘Kemikaze’

In a baptism of fire after Badenoch’s second Prime Minister’s Question Time (PMQT), John Crace of The Guardian wrote that she is “turning out to be the gift that keeps on giving…to the Labour party…Behind her rather patronising, condescending façade, there’s a largely empty interior. 

“She is riddled with levitas. Her self-confidence is in inverse proportion to her abilities. She’s not nearly as bright as she thinks she is, and quite where she got the idea she is a brilliant performer in the Commons is anyone’s guess. It’s Liz Truss levels of delusion.”

Yet, this was the same Badenoch who, two months before she was elected Tory leader, was described by Andrew Marr, author and respected UK political journalist, as “scorchingly clever.” This quality, which is supposed to be her strength, is why she has attracted some of the most scathing criticisms, with some describing her as someone who can start a fight in an empty room

What she stands for

Badenoch is something of a shock to a largely conservative society where reticence, class and race play big. She doesn’t believe in being identified by race, for example, and has argued that identity politics only scratches the surface of why nations fail. 

She argues that just as the cloak does not make the monk, to say someone is black or white, gay or straight, does not explain who they are, but lazy politicians stoke race and identity because it saves them the real work of fixing society.

She doesn’t believe in “multiculturalism” either, insisting that cultures make sense not in their numbers or variety but in what each contributes to building and advancing a society. Many would find Badenoch's position unsettling, being the child of an immigrant herself and for a country like Britain, which has prided itself on being Europe’s melting pot and multicultural capital.

Still on Sowell

I can't entirely agree with Badenoch that multiculturalism and social cohesion are mutually exclusive, that denial of identity politics wishes it away, or that, as she loves to argue, Britain didn’t profit from colonial rule. Interestingly, in Migrations and Cultures: A World View, Thomas Sowell, one of those Badenoch claims shaped her political views, makes a strong point about the role of migrations and relocations in redistributing skills, knowledge and development worldwide. 

Whatever Donald Trump and the new right are teaching the world, migration by conquest, treaty, geography, or the sheer human desire for a better life is a fact of history. The unlikely rise of Badenoch to power—a Nigerian girl who, at age 16, returned to Britain, where she was born—proves that migration works. However, she might argue that the problem is not migration per se but the unwillingness to integrate with host communities.

My disagreement with the new Tory leader on this point does not suggest even remote support for the vicious attacks she has received from a section of the press in Britain or those in her native country who think she must bend a knee to those who want to exploit her Nigerian heritage before she has even settled down.

Not as brittle as they think

As I wrote, when Sunak emerged as Tory leader (and closet xenophobes may be squeamish all they want), the rise of a racially diverse and unconventional crop of politicians, not only in terms of cultural background but also the ideas they represent, is a good thing for politics – whether in Britain or elsewhere.

Sunak lost to Keir Starmer, not necessarily because Labour was very popular—Starmer won with less than 20 percent of eligible voters’ votes—but because the particularly catastrophic years of Johnson and Truss had eroded trust in politics. 

Badenoch has a lot of work ahead of her, but she has the competence, character, and energy to do it despite the snippers at home and abroad. You don’t get this far in the furnace of British politics by being a levitas. 

** Ishiekwene is Editor-In-Chief of LEADERSHIP and author of the new book Writing for Media and Monetising It.

 

 

Australians reacted on Friday with a mixture of anger and relief to a social media ban on children under 16 that the government says is world-leading, but which tech giants like TikTok argue could push young people to "darker corners of the internet".

Australia approved the social media ban for children late on Thursday after an emotive debate that has gripped the nation, setting a benchmark for jurisdictions around the world with one of the toughest regulations targeting Big Tech.

The law forces tech giants from Instagram and Facebook owner Meta Platforms to TikTok to stop minors from logging in or face fines of up to A$49.5 million ($32 million). A trial of enforcement methods will start in January, with the ban to take effect in a year.

"Platforms now have a social responsibility to ensure the safety of our kids is a priority for them," Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said on Friday

"We're making sure that mums and dads can have that different conversation today and in future days."

Announcing the details of the ban earlier this month, Albanese cited the risks to physical and mental health of children from excessive social media use, in particular the risks to girls from harmful depictions of body image, and misogynist content aimed at boys.

In Sydney on Friday, reaction to the ban was mixed.

"I think that's a great idea, because I found that the social media for kids (is) not really appropriate, sometimes they can look at something they shouldn't," said Sydney resident Francesca Sambas.

Others were more scathing.

"I'm feeling very angry, I feel that this government has taken democracy and thrown it out the window," said 58-year-old Shon Klose.

"How could they possibly make up these rules and these laws and push it upon the people?"

Children, meanwhile, said they would try to find a way around the ban.

"I feel like I still will use it, just secretly get in," said 11-year-old Emma Wakefield.

WORLD FIRST

Countries including France and some U.S. states have passed laws to restrict access for minors without a parent's permission, but the Australian ban is absolute. A full under-14s ban in Florida is being challenged in court on free speech grounds.

The legislation was fast-tracked through the country's parliament in what is the last sitting week of the year, to criticism from social media firms and some lawmakers who say the bill has lacked proper scrutiny. It passed through the country's lower house of parliament on Friday morning in a procedural hearing.

A spokesperson for TikTok, which is hugely popular with teen users, said on Friday the process had been rushed and risked putting children into greater danger.

"We're disappointed the Australian government has ignored the advice of the many mental health, online safety, and youth advocacy experts who have strongly opposed the ban," the spokesperson said.

"It's entirely likely the ban could see young people pushed to darker corners of the internet where no community guidelines, safety tools, or protections exist."

Albanese said on Friday passing the bill before the age verification trial has been completed was the correct approach.

"We are very clearly sending a message about our intentions here," he said.

"The legislation is very clear. We don't argue that its implementation will be perfect, just like the alcohol ban for under 18s doesn't mean that someone under 18 never has access, but we know that it's the right thing to do."

The ban could strain Australia's relationship with key ally the United States, where X owner Elon Musk, a central figure in the administration of president-elect Donald Trump, said in a post this month it seemed a "backdoor way to control access to the Internet by all Australians".

It also builds on an existing mood of antagonism between Australia and mostly US-domiciled tech giants. Australia was the first country to make social media platforms pay media outlets royalties for sharing their content and now plans to threaten them with fines for failing to stamp out scams.

 

Reuters

Oil marketers have outlined the conditions that will make them patronise the newly rehabilitated Port Harcourt Refinery Company in Rivers State.

PHRC, under the management of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited, must dispense its refined petroleum products below the prices of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, the dealers stated.

But the NNPCL, in reaction to claims on Wednesday that its petrol price was about N1,045/litre, stated that the refinery had yet to release its prices, as products from the plant were currently dispensed to only NNPCL stations.

The oil firm’s spokesperson, Olufemi Soneye, revealed that the company was still reviewing its prices and had yet to commence bulk sales, as its purchasing portal remained closed.

Meanwhile, it was also gathered on Wednesday that oil marketers imported 105.67 million litres of petrol into the country in five days.

Marketers confirmed that NNPC was selling petrol at N1,045/litre, stressing that they may be compelled to opt for petrol importation as a means of meeting local demands.

A total sum of 78,800 metric tonnes representing 105.67 million litres of petrol was imported into the country in the last five days spanning November 23 and November 28.

On Tuesday, the 60,000-capacity Port-Harcourt refinery resumed operations after years of inactivity, drawing initial praise from Nigerians and industry stakeholders.

The NNPC said the newly rehabilitated complex of the old Port Harcourt refinery, which had been revamped and upgraded with modern equipment, is operating at a refining capacity of 70 per cent of its installed capacity.

NNPC added that diesel and Pour Fuel Oil would be the highest output from the refinery, with a daily capacity of 1.5 million litres and 2.1 million litres, respectively.

This is followed by a daily output of Straight-Run Gasoline (Naphtha) blended into 1.4 million litres of Premium Motor Spirit (petrol), 900,000 litres of kerosene, and low-pour fuel oil of 2.1 million litres.

It was stated that about 200 trucks of petrol would be released into the Nigerian market daily.

However, claims that the national oil firm’s PMS price was higher than that of Dangote triggered diverse reactions from marketers.

The National Publicity Secretary of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria, Chinedu Ukadike, told one of our correspondents that though NNPC had yet to release any price for the products from the refurbished Port Harcourt refinery, a high price would discourage marketers.

Dangote currently sells his petrol at N970/litre, while imported petrol is around that price.

Ukadike, however, noted that there was the possibility that the NNPC would review its prices downward when the Port Harcourt refinery comes fully on stream.

He confirmed that the state-owned oil company sells a litre of PMS at N1,040 or N1,045 while the Dangote refinery just reviewed its price from N990 to N970 for marketers buying a minimum of two million litres.

Ukadike did not mince words when he said independent marketers would only buy from the NNPC if its price is cheaper than that of Dangote or vice versa.

“With the Port Harcourt refinery now working, we are anticipating that any moment from now, NNPC will give us its price. Once NNPC releases its price, we will start loading from NNPC. That is subject to if it is cheaper than that of Dangote.

“The last NNPC price was N1,040 and N1,045 per litre. But I know there will be a review of prices because there has been a crash in prices globally. So, we are expecting a review. Once that review is done, I will be able to give you the actual price. I know they are reviewing it. They are on top of the matter,” the IPMAN spokesman said.

The latest development also indicates that oil marketers may commence the importation of fuel if the prices set by both domestic refineries surpass their profit margins, thereby making it more financially viable for them to rely on imported fuel rather than locally produced stock.

The National Public Relations Officer of the Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria, Joseph Obele, had earlier said NNPC petrol was N75 higher than the N970/litre offered by Dangote refinery.

However, PETROAN’s President, Billy Gillis-Harry, in a statement denied the claim, stressing that no price has been released by the national oil firm.

He explained that members of the association bought PMS based on the old pricing structure and are still waiting for the updated prices.

The statement read, “The National Headquarters of Petroleum Products Retail Outlet Owners Association of Nigeria, PETROAN Abuja would Like to Inform the media and the general public that no new price for PMS has been released by the NNPC port Harcourt refinery.

“Members of PETROAN only bought PMS with the old pricing template awaiting

new prices. We are excited that the production and loading of refined petroleum products have commenced at the Port Harcourt Refinery and we are expectant that soon the price of PMS will be stated by NNPC to the benefit of Nigerians.”

NNPC reacts

But in a message sent to journalists on Wednesday night, the NNPC spokesperson said the national oil firm had not started selling its products from the Port Harcourt refinery to other oil marketers.

He was reacting to an earlier claim by the Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria that the newly rehabilitated Port-Harcourt refinery was selling at N1,045/litre to oil marketers.

He noted that only NNPCL retail stations are receiving products from the refinery.

He said, “We have not yet commenced bulk sales, and we have not yet opened the purchase portal as we are still finalizing the necessary processes.”

He further stated its current stock was procured from the Dangote Refinery and includes fees and levies.

“At present, the products we are selling are what we bought from the Dangote Refinery, which includes NMDPRA fees. The product from PH is currently for our retail stores. Our prices are regularly reviewed and adjusted as required.”

PMS imports

Meanwhile, fresh findings by The PUNCH have revealed that a total sum of 78,800 metric tonnes representing 105.67m litres of petrol have been imported into the country in the last five days spanning November 23 and November 28.

The product was conveyed in four vessels with the latest to be received today (Thursday, November 28, 2024), according to documents obtained from the Nigerian Ports Authority on Wednesday.

An analysis of the document showed that 38,500 metric tonnes of petrol imported on Monday, November 25 berthed at the Lagos Apapa port (Bulk Oil Plant).

Similarly, a Bedford ship conveying 10,000mt of PMS will berth at the Ebughu jetty, Calabar port in Cross Rivers on Thursday, November 28.

Two vessels that arrived on Saturday, November 23 is still waiting to berth. The ships are carrying 30,300mt of fuel.

It also revealed that 11,000 metric tonnes of base oil was imported while the 20bn Dangote refinery received crude oil worth 133,986 metric tonnes on Monday, November 27, 2024.

Last week, oil marketers and the NNPCL had stated plans to stop the import of fuel to focus on off-taking from domestic sources.

This was a fallout from a high-level meeting organised by the NNPC Group CEO Mele Kyari, and the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority. In attendance were representatives of the Major Oil Marketers Association of Nigeria, Depot and Petroleum Products Marketers Association of Nigeria, and key stakeholders from companies such as 11 Plc, Matrix, and AA Rano, among other stakeholders at the NNPCL towers in Abuja.

The meeting was in growing confidence in Dangote Refinery’s ability to meet the nation’s domestic fuel demand and the need to cut fuel imports.

 

Punch

On a quiet July night in 2020, Moshood Lawal woke up feeling pain in his abdomen. It was sharp, relentless, and spreading from the right side. As a long-time ulcer patient, this was not like the pain he was used to.

As the pain intensified, the 64-year-old pharmacist knew something was wrong. Before dawn, Lawal was already admitted to the National Hospital in Abuja, where doctors revealed the source of his pain to be kidney stones.

“After the diagnosis, I was given two options; either go for surgery or try an advanced technology to break the stones into particles I could urinate out,” Lawal told PREMIUM TIMES.

Although he initially chose the non-invasive procedure at a private facility in Abuja, he eventually underwent the surgical procedure on 15 August 2020, after which he was placed on antibiotics as part of post-surgery prophylaxis. However, complications set in when the kidney stones led to fluid retention in his kidney.

“They had to put a stent between my kidney and bladder to drain the liquid that had gathered. About three and half months later – on 21 November 2020 — the stent was removed following an X-ray that showed no more water in the kidney,” he narrated.

At this point, Lawal thought he was done with all medications, he had no idea he was beginning a long battle with antibiotic resistance – a type of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) that has become one of the top global public health and development threats.

Public health threats

The World Health Organisation (WHO) said AMR occurs when bacteria, viruses, fungi, and parasites no longer respond to antimicrobial medicines.

As a result of drug resistance, antibiotics and other antimicrobial medicines become ineffective and infections become difficult or impossible to treat, increasing the risk of disease spread, severe illness, disability, and death.

According to WHO, the emergence and spread of AMR is accelerated by human activity, mainly the misuse and overuse of antimicrobials, including antibiotics, to treat, prevent or control infections in humans, animals and plants.

Over the last two decades, the health body has repeatedly flagged AMR as a global health priority and one of the leading public health threats of the 21st century.

In 2019, estimates for 204 countries and territories, published in the Lancet, show that AMR is now a leading cause of death worldwide, higher than HIV/AIDS or malaria, with the worst impacts in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC).

It is estimated that bacterial AMR was directly responsible for 1.27 million deaths in 2019 and contributed to 4.95 million deaths. If unchecked, this number could rise to 10 million global deaths annually by 2050, 4.1 million of them in Africa.

Nigeria ranked 19th highest in AMR-related mortality out of 204 countries surveyed. In 2019 alone, there were 64,500 deaths attributable to AMR and 263,400 deaths associated with AMR in the country.

Also, a new report by Africa CDC warns that AMR is becoming a more significant threat to Africa than HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis (TB), and malaria, with children and vulnerable groups most at risk.

According to the report, these three diseases combined now account for fewer deaths than AMR, which has a mortality rate of 27.3 deaths per 100,000 people, making it the highest in the world.

“AMR is a silent threat disproportionately affecting the continent’s most vulnerable population,” Jean Kaseya, director-general of Africa CDC, said in reaction to the report.

A case of resistance

Lawal’s ordeal with kidney stones and subsequent complications marked the beginning of microorganisms in his body developing resistance to medications.

Barely 48 hours after the stent removal, he developed a cold and a high fever. Suspecting malaria, he took anti-malaria medication, which provided temporary relief, but the symptoms returned within days.

A laboratory test later confirmed he had both malaria and typhoid, requiring a minimum of 10 days antibiotic course.

“I started an antibiotic for typhoid and also changed my ACT to another combination for malaria. Sadly, around the eighth day of taking the drugs, the symptoms came back even stronger,” he recounted.

His doctor switched him to a different antibiotic, but the problem persisted. Further tests of his urine revealed a heavy growth of Escherichia coli (E. coli), a bacterial infection that is commonly found in the gut of humans and warm-blooded animals.

“The infection was sensitive to a particular antibiotic of which I bought the best brand and used as prescribed. However, even this treatment offered only short-term relief as my symptoms returned while I was on the second pack,” he said.

In December 2020, his condition took another turn when he tested positive for Covid-19. He was taken to the Covid-19 isolation centre at Asokoro, Abuja, Nigeria’s capital territory. However, his case could not be handled so he was transferred to the National Hospital, where he spent seven days on oxygen and was given a mix of medications, including antibiotics.

“By this time I was on over 22 different drugs, morning and evening,” Lawal said, reflecting on the physical and emotional toll of his condition.

While in isolation, he continued to test positive for E. coli, indicating that the bacteria had developed resistance to yet another antibiotic. After his Covid-19 symptoms improved, he was discharged, only to find the E. coli infection still lingering.

Lawal’s case shows that the bacterial infection he attempted to treat many times failed to respond to various antibiotics medications prescribed.

More survivors

After multiple abdominal surgeries for bowel perforation due to ruptured diverticulitis at a private hospital in Lagos, 77-year-old Blessing Sunday was transferred to Lagos State University Teaching Hospital (LASUTH) after developing an infection.

As of 14 November, Mrs Sunday had been admitted to the hospital’s Critical Care Unit (CCU) for about four months. The hospital said she initially did not respond well to treatments due to multiple resistance to medications.

The hospital’s Director of Clinical Services and Training, Bamidele Ayodele, gave PREMIUM TIMES approval to conduct interviews.

Ibrahim Dada, a doctor at LASUTH, provided details about the case. “The patient presented with a significantly elevated white blood cell count. Despite initial treatment, she developed multi-resistance. We have had to adjust her antibiotic regimen repeatedly to address her susceptibility to various infections.”

According to Mr Dada, the hospital often encounters patients with antibiotic-resistant infections, particularly those with sepsis, septic shock, or post-surgical complications.

“Some patients develop resistance after prolonged bed rest or multiple surgeries,” he said. “In such cases, we employ alternative antibiotics like Cilastin or Colistin, sometimes combining them to achieve desired results.”

“When faced with complex cases, we consult clinical microbiologists for guidance on effective treatment strategies. Their expertise helps us navigate the complexities of AMR. Unfortunately, we have lost several patients to AMR due to underlying comorbidities and critical conditions,” he added.

Speaking with PREMIUM TIMES, Mrs Sunday’s son, Emmanuel Sunday, acknowledged the hospital’s efforts but expressed limited awareness about his mother’s condition.

“I told them to do everything in their power to make my mom get better, and they are doing that. So I don’t think they are giving me information on all the antibiotics they are using, the ones she’s resistant to, or the ones she’s responding to,” Mr Sunday said.

Similarly, a young woman identified simply as Ruth was diagnosed with TB in 2021 at the age of 17. Her symptoms started with a persistent cough that lasted for weeks, accompanied by weakness and weight loss.

Despite being placed on medication, Ruth’s condition showed no significant improvement. She described the period as challenging for her and her family. “The treatment I was receiving at the early stage of diagnosis was not working well. I was very ill and almost unrecognisable.”

After several months without progress, Ruth was referred to Abubakar Tafawa Balewa University Teaching Hospital (ATBUTH) in Bauchi State. There, she was diagnosed with Drug-Resistant Tuberculosis (DR-TB), a more severe and complex form of the disease.

Although the diagnosis was devastating, Ruth’s doctor assured her that recovery was possible with proper medication. “The doctor and other persons there at the time mentioned that I was the first patient to be placed on a particular type of TB treatment, and they assured me of recovering fully,” she said.

Investment case for AMR

Data from the study on the economic case for AMR investment requested by the Global Leaders Group (GLG) on AMR shows that the already staggering human toll of AMR will be compounded by a catastrophic hit to the global economy unless bolder and more urgent action is taken. 

The study shows that without a stronger response, there would be an average loss of 1.8 years of life expectancy globally by 2035. It also estimates that AMR would cost the world $412 billion a year in additional healthcare costs and $443 billion per year in lost workforce productivity.

The GLG in a report titled “Towards Specific Commitments and Action in the Response to AMR” said some low- and low-middle-income countries would see life expectancy fall by 2.5 years within the same period.

The report indicates that committed financing from domestic and external sources, particularly for the LMICs that bear the highest burden of drug-resistant infections and deaths, would also help the implementation of National Action Plans on AMR.

The report notes that while 90 per cent of countries have developed National Action Plans, only 25 per cent have funded them.

“We have the tools to mitigate the AMR crisis and this data point to a devastating future if we do not take bolder action now,” GLG on AMR Chair Mia Mottley, who is the Prime Minister of Barbados, said.

Speaking at a recent event, Laxmikant Chavan, the coordinator for One Health, WHO, explained that AMR is already common in Nigeria, and is similar to the outbreaks of diphtheria and fungal infections resistant to multiple treatments.

Mr Chavan explained that AMR could push an estimated 28 million people into extreme poverty globally and exacerbate existing socio-economic challenges.

“The economic toll of AMR for Nigeria and other LMICs could lead to a reduction in GDP of up to four per cent by 2030,” he said.

“LMICs like Nigeria stand to suffer the most, where healthcare costs could skyrocket and millions of people could be pushed into extreme poverty.”

Drivers of AMR, need for One Health approach

According to Ifeyinwa George, AMR programme manager at Dr Ameyo Stella Adadevoh (DRASA) Health Trust, an organisation founded in honour of Nigerian Ebola heroine, the major drivers of AMR in Nigeria are the “overuse and misuse of antimicrobials in human, animal, and food sectors.”

Ms George noted that environmental contamination from hospital, pharmaceutical, and agricultural effluents, as well as limited access to essential antimicrobials and diagnostics, also contribute to AMR.

She emphasised the importance of adopting a One Health Approach to tackling AMR, citing its ability to spotlight the interdependence of human, animal, plant, and environmental health.

“It highlights the benefits of proactive cross-sectoral collaboration and partnerships,” she said.

“Basically, adopting a one health approach is a faster route to achieving sustainable AMR containment as it addresses the full spectrum of disease control.”

The AMR programme manager at the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC), Ridwan Yahaya, said the major drivers of AMR are behavioural issues. He said irrational drug prescription without diagnostic tests makes those organisms resistant, especially to antibiotics.

He said Nigeria is adopting the one health approach in addressing AMR.

“As a country, we have identified AMR as a priority and in 2017, Nigeria joined the global community and agreed to develop a National Action Plan for a five-year period to address AMR,” Mr Yahaya said.

“The action plan, which was developed with other stakeholders, encompasses animal health, environment and human health. For the five years, we achieved an implementation rate of 44 per cent across the five strategic areas and across the three sectors.”

He said the government has also developed National Action Plan 2.0 with almost the same strategic objective but now to include “how to strengthen governance, leadership and coordination to ensure that all multi-sectoral stakeholders are carried along.”

Antibiotic misuse, abuse

Rashidat Salawu, 35, was drenched in sweat as she laid on the floor inside her shop located in Kubwa, a suburb of Nigeria’s capital city, Abuja.

Mrs Salawu, a mother of one, disclosed that she had been grappling with illness for about a week.

When questioned by PREMIUM TIMES about the nature of her ailment, she said it was “fever and maybe infection”. She said her husband had already purchased some medicines from a local patent store, commonly known as ‘chemist’ located just around the corner of their home.

“My husband explained my symptoms to Baba, the store owner, and he gave me these drugs to take,” she said.

Mrs Salawu is one of many Nigerians who rely on patent stores to get quick remedies to tackle their symptoms, a habit health experts describe as ‘dangerous’ to human health.

According to experts, this habit is one of the major factors fuelling antibiotic resistance.

Many other Nigerians have the habit of not completing their full course of treatment, a trend that has proven to be dangerous to human health and also leads to AMR.

Ngozi, residing in Mararaba, Nasarawa State, said she could not remember ever completing her antibiotics doses. “I don’t think anybody ever completes their doses. Once you feel better, you just move on,” she said.

Health experts said this is rampant because many people are unaware of the danger of microorganisms’ resistance to medications.

Knowledge gap

Despite being a critical public health concern, AMR awareness lags behind other health issues, various studies suggest.

A 2020 study conducted across six Nigerian states – Lagos, Ebonyi, Delta, Plateau, Borno, and Jigawa – illustrates this knowledge gap.

The study analysed responses from 482 individuals (242 females, 240 males) and revealed concerning trends. Nearly 67 per cent (322 respondents) had taken antibiotics in the preceding six months, with 31.3 per cent obtaining them without a prescription. 26.1 per cent believed completing the full dosage was unnecessary once symptoms subsided.

Although 56.5 per cent recognised the term “antibiotic resistance,” only 8.3 per cent demonstrated a comprehensive understanding of AMR.

Notably, a majority (76.6 per cent) believed that they were powerless to stop the spread of AMR.

The study concluded that respondents have a poor overall understanding of AMR and proper use of antibiotics.

Mr Yahaya, the AMR programme manager at NCDC, said everybody has a role to play in combating AMR, “at the individual level, community, organisational and societal level.”

He said there are strategic objective areas in the National Action Plan 2.0 that emphasise more awareness.

“What it means is that when people are aware of the dangers of AMR, they make informed decisions. In doing that, we piloted the community AMR stewardship programme where we engaged Patent Medicine Vendors, school children, and individual adults on the dangers of misusing Antibiotics.”

Promoting awareness

Mr Chavan, the WHO technical officer on AMR, said it is important to carry out more holistic public enlightenment programmes to increase awareness of AMR and promote responsible use of antibiotics.

He said the theme for the 2024 World AMR Awareness Week (WAAW) “Educate. Advocate. Act now.” emphasises the importance of increased awareness in the fight against AMR.

WAAW is a global campaign to raise awareness and understanding of AMR and promote best practices among the public, One Health stakeholders, and policymakers to reduce the emergence and spread of drug-resistant infections.

The week is celebrated annually from 18-24 November.

Mr Lawal was initially unaware of the cause of failed antibiotic medications against bacteria infections, emphasising the need for increased awareness of AMR.

After months of ineffective treatments against E. coli, Mr Lawal turned to research to get answers on his path to recovery.

“As a pharmacist, I brought out my books and started reading. I googled a specific antibiotic, which became my saving grace. I discovered it was targeted for multi-drug-resistant E.coli,” he said.

“I contacted a pharmacy to confirm the availability of the drugs and my consultant also gave me the go-ahead. There was improvement after the first day of taking the drug, more improvement on the second day, and by the third day, I was completely free.”

Mr Lawal carried out a culture test of his urine, which confirmed that not a single bacterium was present. “That was how I survived both COVID-19 and antibiotic resistance,” he said.

 

PT

Still counting its dead, Hezbollah faces long road to recover from war

With the bodies of its fighters still strewn on the battlefield, Hezbollah must bury its dead and provide succour to its supporters who bore the brunt of Israel's offensive, as the first steps on a long and costly road to recovery, four senior officials said.

Hezbollah believes the number of its fighters killed during 14 months of hostilities could reach several thousand, with the vast majority killed since Israel went on the offensive in September, three sources familiar with its operations say, citing previously unreported internal estimates.

One source said the Iran-backed group may have lost up to 4,000 people - well over 10 times the number killed in its month-long 2006 war with Israel. So far, Lebanese authorities have said some 3,800 people were killed in the current hostilities, without distinguishing fighters from civilians.

Hezbollah emerges shaken from top to bottom, its leadership still reeling from the killing of its former leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah and its supporters made homeless en masse by the carpet bombing of Beirut's southern suburbs and the destruction of entire villages in the south.

With a ceasefire taking hold on Wednesday, Hezbollah's agenda includes working to re-establish its organisational structure fully, probing security breaches that helped Israel land so many painful blows, and a full review of the last year including its mistakes in underestimating Israel's technological capabilities, three other sources familiar with the group's thinking said.

For this story Reuters spoke to a dozen people who together provided details of some of the challenges facing Hezbollah as it seeks to pick itself up after the war. Most asked not to be named to speak about sensitive matters.

Hassan Fadallah, a senior Hezbollah politician, told Reuters the priority will be "the people."

"To shelter them, to remove the rubble, to bid farewell to the martyrs and, in the next phase, to rebuild," he said.

Israel's campaign has focused largely on Hezbollah's Shi'ite Muslim heartlands, where its supporters were badly hit. They include people still nursing casualties from Israel's attack on its mobile communications devices in September.

"I have a brother who was martyred, a brother-in-law who was wounded in the pager attacks, and my neighbours and relatives are all either martyrs, wounded or missing," said Hawraa, a woman from south Lebanon with family members who fight for Hezbollah.

"We want to collect our martyrs and bury them ... we want to rebuild our homes," said Hawraa, who stayed in her village until she was forced to flee by the Israeli assault in September. She declined to use her full name, citing safety fears.

The Israeli offensive displaced more than 1 million people, the bulk of them from areas where Hezbollah has sway.

A senior Lebanese official familiar with Hezbollah thinking said the group's focus would be squarely on securing their return and rebuilding their homes: "Hezbollah is like a wounded man. Does a wounded man get up and fight? A wounded man needs to tend to his wounds."

The official expected Hezbollah to carry out a wide-ranging policy review after the war, dealing with all major issues: Israel, its weapons, and the internal politics of Lebanon, where its weapons have long been a point of conflict.

Iran, which established Hezbollah in 1982, has promised to help with reconstruction. The costs are immense: The World Bank estimates $2.8 billion in damage to housing alone in Lebanon, with 99,000 homes partially or fully destroyed.

The senior Lebanese official said Tehran has a variety of ways to get funds to Hezbollah, without giving details.

Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, a close Hezbollah ally, is urging wealthy Lebanese Shi'ites in the diaspora to send funds to help the displaced, two Lebanese officials said.

The officials also expected significant donations to come from Shi'ite religious foundations across the region.

Hezbollah did not immediately respond to a detailed request for comment for this story. Iran's foreign ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

'THE RESISTANCE' WILL CONTINUE

Hezbollah has indicated it intends to keep its arms, dashing hopes of Lebanese adversaries who predicted the pressures generated by the war would finally lead it to hand them to the state. Hezbollah officials have said the resistance - widely understood to mean its armed status - will continue.

Hezbollah opened fire in support of Palestinian ally Hamas on Oct. 8, 2023. Israel went on the offensive against the group in September, declaring the aim of securing the return home of 60,000 people evacuated from homes in the north.

Despite the resulting devastation, Hezbollah's Fadlallah said the resistance put up by its fighters in south Lebanon and the group's intensified rocket salvoes towards the end of the conflict showed Israel had failed.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says its campaign has set back Hezbollah decades, eliminated its top leaders, destroyed most of its rockets, neutralised thousands of fighters, and obliterated its infrastructure near the border.

A senior U.S. official said Hezbollah was "extremely weak" at this moment, both militarily and politically. A Western diplomat echoed that assessment, saying Israel had the upper hand and had almost dictated the terms of its withdrawal.

The ceasefire terms agreed by Israel and Lebanon require Hezbollah to have no military presence in an area between the Israeli border and the Litani River, which meets the Mediterranean Sea some 30 km (20 miles) from the frontier.

Hezbollah, which approved the deal, has not declared how it intends to help implement those terms, including whether it actively hands its arms to Lebanese troops who are deploying into the south, or leaves the weapons for soldiers to find.

Israel complains Hezbollah, which is deeply rooted in south Lebanon, never implemented the same terms when they were agreed to end a previous war in 2006 war. Israel says the group was preparing for a large-scale assault into northern Israel, pointing to its military build-up at the frontier.

Andreas Krieg of King's College in London said Hezbollah had retained considerable capability.

The performance of its "core infantry fighters in southern Lebanon and rocket attacks deep into Israeli territory in recent days showed the group was still very, very capable," he said.

"But Hezbollah will be very much bogged down in the effort of rebuilding the infrastructure and also, most importantly, securing the funds to do so,” he said.

'REPAYING THE DEBT'

Hezbollah has been handing out cash to people affected by the hostilities since they began, paying $200 a month to civilians who stayed in frontline villages, and offering more as people were forced to flee the areas, according to recipients.

Since the start of the escalation in September, Hezbollah has been paying around $300 a month to help displaced families.

The group has made no secret of the military and financial support it gets from Iran, which shipped huge sums of cash to in 2006 to aid the homeless and help rebuild.

Hezbollah supporters say more will be on the way. One, citing conversations with a local Hezbollah official, said the group would cover a year of rent for the homeless in addition to furniture costs.

Addressing the Lebanese people in an October sermon, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said "the destruction will be replaced... repaying the debt to the wounded, bleeding Lebanon is our duty...".

The World Bank, in a preliminary estimate, put the cost in damage and losses to Lebanon at $8.5 billion, a bill that cannot be footed by the government, still suffering the consequences of a catastrophic financial collapse five years ago.

Gulf states Qatar, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia helped pay the $5 billion reconstruction bill in 2006, the last time Hezbollah and Israel went to war. But there has been no sign that these Sunni-led Arab states are ready to do so again.

Hezbollah conducted a lot of reconstruction work after the 2006 war, financed by Iran and using its construction wing. The project was directed by Sayyed Hashem Safieddine, a Hezbollah leader killed by Israel 11 days after Nasrallah, in a sign of the bigger challenges it will face this time round.

"For Hezbollah the priority is to guarantee the loyalty of the Shi’ite community. The destruction has been enormous and it will impact the organization," said Mohanand Hage Ali of the Carnegie Middle East Center.

 

Reuters

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