The most accurate way yet of identifying who will get dementia has been developed by British scientists.

Researchers say the new dementia risk score "strongly predicts" the chances of people over the age of 50 developing the debilitating disease within 14 years.

And they say that having diabetes, depression and high blood pressure can triple the risk of developing the condition.

The system, created by Oxford University researchers following a long term study published in BMJ Mental Health, draws on 11 mostly modifiable risk factors to identify people most at risk from middle age onwards.

The new UK Biobank Dementia Risk Score (UKBDRS) outperformed three other widely used dementia risk scores originally developed in Australia (ANU-ADRI), Finland (CAIDE), and the UK (DRS).

Up to 50 million people worldwide are thought to be living with dementia, with the number projected to triple by 2050.

But scientists say targeting key risk factors, several of which involve lifestyle, could potentially avert around 40 percent of cases.

Several risk scores have been devised to try and predict a person’s chances of developing dementia while preventive measures are still possible.

But those scores have proved unreliable, and some rely on expensive and invasive tests, precluding their use in primary care.

To try and get round those issues, the Oxford team drew on two large groups of 50 to 73-year-olds participating in two long term studies - one group for developing the new risk score (UK Biobank study) and one for validating it (Whitehall II study).

A total of 220,762 people from the UK Biobank study, with an average age just under 60, and 2,934 from the Whitehall II study, average age 57, were included in the final analysis.

The research team compiled a list of 28 established factors associated with a higher or reduced risk of developing dementia, to which they applied a statistical method designed to identify and discard the least relevant factors.

That produced 11 predictive factors for any type of dementia: the UK Biobank Dementia Risk Score (UKBDRS).

The 11 factors were: age, education, history of diabetes, history of/current depression, history of stroke, parental dementia, economic disadvantage, high blood pressure, high cholesterol, living alone and being a man.

The APOE gene, which is involved in the production of a protein that helps carry cholesterol and other types of fat in the bloodstream, is a known risk factor for dementia.

Its carriage was known for 157,090 participants in the UK Biobank study and 2,315 of those in the Whitehall II study and added to the risk score (UKBDRS-APOE).

Within 14 years, nearly two percent of people in the UK Biobank group and just over three percent of participants in the Whitehall II group developed dementia.

The predictive values of UKBDRS with and without APOE were compared with that of age alone; and the three other widely used risk scores.

UKBDRS-APOE produced the highest predictive score, closely followed by the UKBDRS, and then age alone, followed by DRS, CAIDE, and finally ANU-ADRI.

The researchers suggest that the accuracy of their risk score could be further improved by adding cognitive tests, a brain scan, and a blood test for indicators of neurodegeneration.

But as those are expensive or time intensive they may not always be available.

Lead author Raihaan Patel said: "The UKBDRS may best be used as an initial screening tool to stratify people into risk groups, and those identified as high risk could then benefit from the more time intensive follow-up assessments described above for more detailed characterization."

Co-author Sana Suri said: *“It’s important to remember that this risk score only tells us about our chances of developing dementia; it doesn’t represent a definitive outcome.

“The importance of each risk factor varies and given that some of the factors included in the score can be modified or treated, there are things we can all do to help reduce our risk of dementia.”

She added: “While older age, 60 and above, and APOE confer the greatest risk, modifiable factors, such as diabetes, depression, and high blood pressure also have a key role.

"For example, the estimated risk for a person with all of these will be approximately three times higher than that of a person of the same age who doesn't have any.”

Patel, of Oxford's Department of Psychiatry, added: “There are many steps we would need to take before we can use this risk score in clinical practice.

“It’s well known that dementia risk, onset, and prevalence vary by race, ethnicity and socio-economic status.

"Therefore, while the consistent performance of UKBDRS across these two independent groups boosts our confidence in its viability, we need to evaluate it across more diverse groups of people both within and beyond the UK."

 

Talker

After an Indonesian groom disappeared on his wedding day, his father assumed responsibility and married the bride just so the expensive event would not be canceled.

What was supposed to be the happiest day in one Indonesian woman’s life quickly turned into a humiliating nightmare after her husband-to-be disappeared right on their wedding day. The young woman, identified only as SA by Indonesian media outlets, hails from the village of Jikotamo, South Halmahera, and was said to have been in a long-term relationship with the groom.

However, on August 29, on the day of their wedding, the man ran away, leaving her to explain to the guests that the wedding was off. This was apparently considered inconceivable by both families, as the wedding preparations had cost a small fortune, and the dowry had already been settled, so the groom’s father stepped in and married SA.

In a video that has been doing the rounds on Indonesian social media, the groom’s and the bride’s fathers can be seen taking part in the bizarre wedding ceremony, only one of them is actually playing the groom.

“The guests had already arrived to attend the wedding. The man’s family then informed us that their son was missing and couldn’t be found,” the bride’s brother, Wisto Ahmad, told reporters, confirming that the eloped groom’s father had married SA.

Although the bride’s family was apparently deeply humiliated by the groom’s disappearance, the spending of approximately 25 million rupiah ($1,700) on wedding preparations was apparently their main concern. Losing that money by canceling the event was out of the question, so the groom’s father stepped in.

Reactions to this unusual wedding on Indonesian social media have been mixed, with many making fun of the situation and others bemoaning the young bride’s fate.

“My father’s wife is my ex-girlfriend,” one person commented, imagining the groom’s description of his new stepmother.

“25 million in losses? Your daughter will be “trapped” in a marriage she doesn’t want for the rest of her life,” a person criticized the bride’s family.

 

Oddity Central

Nigeria's main opposition candidates will appeal a tribunal ruling that affirmed Bola Tinubu's victory in a disputed presidential election in February that they claim was marred by irregularities, their lawyers said.

Atiku Abubakar of the People's Democratic Party and Labour Party's Peter Obi, who came second and third respectively, had asked the court to cancel the election, alleging everything from vote fraud to failure by the electoral agency to post results electronically. They wanted Tinubu to be disqualified.

But the Presidential Election Petition Court on Wednesday dismissed their petitions point-by-point in a judgment that lasted more than 11 hours.

The ruling followed a pattern in previous election years in Africa's most populous country, where no legal challenge to the outcome of a presidential election has succeeded since Nigeria returned to democracy in 1999.

"I am therefore here to tell you that, though the judgment of the court yesterday is respected, it is a judgment that I refuse to accept. I refuse to accept the judgment because I believe that it is bereft of substantial justice," Atiku said at press conference on X, formerly called Twitter.

"Consequently, I have asked my lawyers to activate my constitutionally guaranteed rights of appeal to the higher court, which, in the instance, is the Supreme Court."

At a press briefing in his home state of Anambra on Thursday, Obi said while he respects the views of the tribunal, he disagrees with the judgement and will immediately appeal.

"It is my intention as a presidential candidate and the intention of the Labour Party to challenge this judgment by way of appeal immediately," he said.

"Our legal team has already received our firm instruction to file an appeal against the decision. I shall not relent in the quest for justice, not necessarily for myself but indeed for our teeming supporters all over the country whose mandate to us at the polls was regrettably truncated," Obi said.

An appeal at the Supreme Court should be filed within 14 days from the date of the tribunal ruling. The apex court then has 60 days to hear the case and make its ruling.

 

Reuters

At least 30 persons have lost their lives in a landslide reportedly triggered by activities of illegal miners in the Kuje Area Council of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Abuja.

Nineteen persons were also abducted in Bwari Area Council of Abuja on Thursday.

The council area chairman disclosed this during a meeting between FCT Minister, Nyesom Wike, and six Area Councils Chairmen.

Expressing shock over the developments, Wike said he would meet with the Director of Department of State Services (DSS) in Abuja as well as the Commissioner of Police to receive adequate briefings on the kidnap and facilitate rescue operations.

He also directed the council bosses to set up surveillance task force in their areas to monitor mining activities.

Wike promised  to meet with his counterpart in Solid Minerals, Dele Alake, to tackle illegal mining in the FCT.

Speaking on the challenges confronting the councils, Kwali Area Council chairman, Danladi Chiya appealed to the Minister to come to their aid.

He said, “When we heard about your appointment, we were happy because you have been a Council Chairman and therefore understand our challenges.

“Our challenges are inadequate funding of the local government system. We have the major challenge of insecurity across the six Area Councils. Just today (Thursday), about 19 people were kidnapped in Bwari Area Council. I just received about five in my council who were in captivity for about six days.

“The next is the development of satellite towns. The issue of sanitation is one of the major challenges confronting us.

“There is also no efficient transport facility. The Abuja Urban Mass transit buses are no longer functional.

“Then there is the issue of land allocation. You sit in your council, and your backyard will be allocated to someoje you don’t even know. Your graveyards and worship centres would be allocated and we are saying that we should be carried along in terms of land allocation.

“The responsibility of primary school teachers is on the local governments. The UBE’s payment of salaries lies on the council which by law is supposed to be the 60-40 percent. We are pleading that you help us so that this issue can be looked into”.

Kuje Area Council Chairman, Abdullahi Sabo, lamented the menace of illegal miners.

He said: “The issue of illegal mining in the FCT. There is indiscriminate mining licences given out and this has led to insecurity. They give letters of consent to Chinese people.

“Just few days ago, there was a land slide that took the lives of 30 people as a result of activities of illegal miners. We appeal to you to engage the Minister of Mines to stop mining in the FCT”.

“On sanitation, we have a problem. Sanitation is a big issue. It is the duty of the council not just to collect the fees but to dispose refuse. We have to sit down and work together on this by adopting a common template.

“On illegal mining, I will talk to the minister. Ordinarily, I would say you should also form your own surveillance taskforce as Chief Security Officers of your councils and make arrests and we will support you. However, I will meet with the minister.”

Reacting, Wike promised to address the issues, saying as a former council boss, he understood their predicament.

According to him; “I am here to work for the FCT, not to work for any political party. I am here to support the administration of Tinubu to realize the dreams of the founding fathers. It doesn’t matter your political affiliations or religion, I am here to serve all.

“We cannot achieve anything without support from the Councils. We are not struggling for power and so we have to collaborate. It is in your interest as council chairmen to work for the people and that you can do by collaborating with us. What affects you affects me and so I will not be anywhere and allow Area Councils to be shortchanged.

“I will want to advise that we manage what we have but we will work to ensure that what you are supposed to get, that you get it and nobody will shortchange you.

“Insecurity is a major problem all over and those of you who are outside the Municipality, you have to work hard. Information is key. The incident of kidnap you talked about, nobody has reported that to me. It is a serious issue and we need to call an emergency security meeting. I have to call the Director of SSS and the CP now to give me more details because it is every embarrassing to me. Though, I am happy you said the SSS official and the DPO in the affected council are informed and on the situation.

“On sanitation, we have a problem. Sanitation is a big issue. It is the duty of the council not just to collect the fees but to dispose of refuse. We have to sit down and work together on this by adopting a common template.

 

Daily Trust

Federal Airports Authority of Nigeria (FAAN) says flight operations have been moved from the old terminal of the Murtala Muhammed International Airport in Lagos, to the new one (terminal two).

In a statement on Thursday, the agency also urged travellers to arrive at the airport three hours before departure.

This, FAAN said, would allow the check-in process to be done in time.

“This is to inform the travelling public that flight Operations have been moved from the Old Murtala Muhammed International Airport terminal (TI) to the new terminal (T2),” the statement reads.

“FAAN uses this medium to appeal to passengers to always get to the airport ‘At least three hours’ before their departure time to ensure that check-in activities are concluded in good time.”

The announcement comes one week after Festus Keyamo, the minister of aviation and aerospace development, 

directed all airlines to vacate the old terminal from October 1, 2023.

Keyamo said the relocation was necessary to give room for total maintenance work at the airport.

Meanwhile, a fire incident occurred at the airport on Wednesday morning.

The fire was said to have gutted a section of the old terminal and affected a section of the administrative office of FAAN.

 

The Cable

Three months after he left Nigeria on medical leave, Governor Rotimi Akeredolu of Ondo state has returned to the country.

A source in the state government confirmed his return on Thursday afternoon.

Context

Akeredolu began a 21-day leave on 7 June and immediately embarked on a medical trip to Germany.

The governor, according to a letter to the state House of Assembly, was expected to return on 6 July but had remained abroad.

His prolonged stay triggered numerous controversies in the state as his officials and family members jostled for control of government.

On 15th July, the governor requested through a letter to the state’s lawmakers that his deputy, Lucky Aiyedatiwa, should take over in an “acting capacity.”

Arrival

According to our source, the governor arrived in Ibadan early on Thursday and will take some more rest at his private residence before heading to Ondo State.

The source pleaded anonymity because government and the family of Akeredolu are yet to make an announcement.

He added that some members of the cabinet were already on their way to welcome him back

However, Akeredolu’s wife, Betty Anyanwu-Akeredolu, has posted a photograph of him in a chopper on her Instagram account, under the caption “homebound.”

 

PT

WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Ukraine reports some successes in counteroffensive against Russian forces

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Thursday singled out military units in the east and south for their actions against Russian troops and other officials reported some breakthroughs in a counteroffensive to reclaim Russian-occupied territory.

The general staff of Ukraine's armed forces described a "partial success" near the eastern city of Bakhmut, long a focal point of fighting. And it said Ukrainian troops were making gradual progress in their southward advance to the Sea of Azov.

Russian accounts of the fighting said their troops had beaten back Ukrainian attacks near Bakhmut.

Reuters was not able to verify battlefield reports of either side.

Ukraine began its counteroffensive in June and has focused on retaking Bakhmut, seized by Russian troops in May, and capturing clusters of villages in the south. They face Russian troops that are well dug in and have benefited from extensive mining operations.

Ukraine has bristled at what critics in the Western media have described as the campaign's slow pace and questionable tactics. But U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken hailed "very, very encouraging progress" during talks in Kyiv on Wednesday.

Zelenskiy, in his nightly video address on Thursday, provided few details of operations.

"Thank you soldiers for very, very effective results in destroying the occupiers," Zelenskiy said. "And results are precisely what Ukraine needs now from everyone."

One national guard unit fighting in the east and two in the south he mentioned included the 12th brigade, which has soldiers of the Azov brigade who last year defended the Azovstal steel works in the city of Mariupol. Military analysts said they had been holding Ukrainian positions in the northeast.

The general staff report said: "As a result of its assault operations, the defence forces have achieved a partial success south of Bakhmut, pushing the enemy out of and reinforcing their own positions."

Deputy Defence Minister Hanna Maliar told national television that Ukrainian forces were pressing their drive near southward from the village of Robotyne, captured last week.

Maliar said that on the southern front, where Ukrainian forces are trying to sever a land bridge established by Russia between the Crimean peninsula Russia annexed in 2014, and the occupied east, "events are developing rapidly."

Russia's Defence Ministry, in its reports on the fighting, said Moscow's forces had repelled nine attempted Ukrainian advances near Klishchiivka, a village on heights south of Bakhmut seen as critical to securing control of the city.

 

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

Musk ‘the last adequate mind’ in America – Medvedev

Former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev has praised billionaire Elon Musk for refusing to allow Ukraine to use his Starlink satellite communications network for attacks on a Russian naval base in Crimea. The statement came after CNN published excerpts from Walter Isaacson’s book about Musk, where he detailed the rationale behind the businessman’s decision. 

“If what Isaacson has written in his book is true, then it looks like Musk is the last adequate mind in North America,” Medvedev, who is currently deputy chair of Russia’s Security Council, wrote on his English-language account on X (formerly known as Twitter) on Thursday.

“Or, at the very least, in gender-neutral America, he is the one with the balls,” the official added.

According to excerpts from Isaacson’s book, quoted by CNN, Musk secretly ordered his engineers to disable Starlink service near Crimea last year to sabotage a planned Ukrainian attack on Russia’s Black Sea Fleet. “Starlink was not meant to be involved in wars. It was so people can watch Netflix and chill and get online for school and do good peaceful things, not drone strikes,” Musk reportedly said.

After the CNN story appeared online, Musk took to X to explain that he had denied Kiev’s “emergency request” to activate Starlink all the way to the port city of Sevastopol, which hosts a Russian naval base. “If I had agreed to their request, then SpaceX would be explicitly complicit in a major act of war and conflict escalation,” Musk wrote.

The businessman donated around 20,000 Starlink kits to Ukraine after Russia launched its military operation in the neighboring state in February 2022. Musk has since advocated for a peaceful resolution of the conflict, drawing ire from both Ukrainian and Western officials.

 

Reuters/RT

A rising great power fills the ports of a decaying empire with its merchants and goods. Its ambassadors mock the diplomatic and political traditions of their hosts and refuse to be bound by them. Soon, the great power is openly allowing poisonous drugs to be pushed on the old empire’s streets, refusing to do anything to stop their spread. China in 1839? Or Britain and America in 2023? 

A century and a half on from Britain’s wicked traffic in soul-destroying drugs, ruthless imperial commerce is wreaking its revenge on the West. Britain’s primary motive in the Opium Wars was of course profit, but one can wonder if British leaders were happy to pump sedatives into Chinese veins, rendering a once formidable civilisation easy prey for economic exploitation. 

The modern version of this grim imperial politics is played out in many of the old ways of course — China’s always lacklustre cooperation with US counter-narcotic operations ceased in 2020 — and China has been a major source of the synthetic opioid fentanyl in America, contributing to 80,000 opioid overdose deaths in 2021 alone. 

But as well as more prosaic poisons, China has been happy for the social media platform TikTok to explode into the Western internet — even as it remains inaccessible within China itself. Although TikTok (like many Chinese-based tech services) is seen by some, including US Cyber Command, as a cybersecurity risk, it is the content, not the potential snooping, that poses the greatest danger. 

TikTok takes all the most destructive tendencies of social media and pushes them to the extreme. Heavily targeted at children, it has created an audience that reports experiencing stress at videos longer than a minute in length. One third of users watch TikTok videos at double speed. The algorithm operates on an especially marked feedback model — the “garbage in, garbage out” approach.

Start to watch highly sexualised content, videos featuring self harm, suicide, eating disorders or gender dysphoria, and you will soon be fed more videos on these topics. The process is also highly memetic, playing on our most basic instinct to copy what we see.

Last month, tourists and shoppers were horrified by the sudden appearance of hundreds of teenagers attempting to loot businesses on Oxford Street. The mystery was soon solved — the robbery was inspired by messages on TikTok. This was civil disorder by flashmob. Organising hundreds of people to break the law at once is an effective way to get away with theft, but it’s often just as much about performativity. Mizzy rose to notoriety in his pursuit of social media stardom.

But more disturbing than the destruction is the self-destruction inspired via TikTok. Apart from spreading eating disorders and depression by social contagion, it has spread far more improbable mental illnesses. Thanks to “awareness-rasing” content and influencers, there are now thousands of teenagers self-diagnosing with ADHD, autism, Tourettes, multiple-personality disorder and other rare conditions. Other TikTok influencers promote the “child-free” lifestyle, turning the choice not to reproduce into a mix of political movement and spiritual ideal. Proponents range from the idiotic but innocuous (one woman went viral boasting about being able to sleep in) to the sinister and anti-social — with one user celebrated in the leftwing press for promoting “child-free” public spaces.

TikTok may not be snorted, smoked or injected, but it’s just as spiritually lethal to Western culture as any drug. Especially targeted at children, it promotes mental illness, self-harm, infertility, triviality and despair. It makes us victims of our worst instincts. If Western countries don’t want our own century of humiliation, it’s time we chucked the whole horrible platform into the sea — or its nearest digital equivalent. 

 

The Telegraph

It’s more than one year to the next governorship election in Edo State, which prides itself on being the “heartbeat of the nation”. But in a maelstrom that has forced the state’s heart to beat faster than is good for it, you would be forgiven to think the election is tomorrow.

The bad blood between Governor Godwin Obaseki and his deputy, Philip Shaibu, is so bitter and so strong it has spilled beyond Osadebe House in Benin, splattering as far as Abuja courts, and daily smearing the front pages of newspapers. 

Reports last week said the governor, fed up of seeing his deputy’s face, is preparing an isolation centre an for him in the precincts of the Government House, but far enough to keep him out of sight.

One cynical way to look at it is to say Shaibu is getting what he deserves for trying to do what Napoleon could not do. In Nigeria’s 24 years of unbroken civilian rule there are few examples of deputy governors who have succeeded their bosses by election, and only two of them – Mahmud Shinkafi (Zamfara); and Abdullahi Ganduje (Kano) – did so by mutual consent. The others, whether in Bayelsa, Kaduna, Sokoto, Ebonyi, Yobe or Oyo, were either by default or defiance. 

Except Shaibu intends to make his luck, which will not only include raiding the vote bank in Edo South, but also subverting the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) structure in the state, and overthrowing Obaseki's ego, history is not on his side. 

Making his luck? 

How can Shaibu make his luck when he is throwing everything into battle at once, the very opposite of Napoleon’s famous manoeuvre sur les derrie ‘res or the strategy of inferiority? He doesn’t even enjoy support in his Edo North home base, where the rival All Progressives Congress (APC) could have thrown him a lifeline.

Adams Oshiomhole, APC leader in Edo and Shaibu’s former staunch backer, has told him that APC has no room for internally displaced politicians (IDP) in search of a rehabilitation camp. That may sound harsh, but I’m sure that Shaibu knows he deserves his current misery. Loyalty is not a virtue in politics, sadly. But if Oshiomhole is dressing Shaibu down, he has earned the right to do so. 

Of course, Oshiomhole’s snake may have its hand buried in its womb, but it was this man, for all his hubris, that extended a helping hand to Shaibu, a former Prisons Service officer, after an electoral defeat in his early political career in 2003 nearly left him for dead. 

That helping hand, which he would later turn round to bite, was the hand that paved the way for him not only to later become the majority leader in the Edo House of Assembly, but also to represent Estako Federal Constituency in the House of Representatives in 2015. 

According to one account, in the good old days of comradery conviviality, the infernal idea of inaugurating a minority House of Assembly of 10 members in 2019 after which the majority of 14 (APC) were locked out for entire four years was suggested by Shaibu, who was House Leader between 2009 and 2015. It was a coup that benefited all the plotters.

Yet, however deserving he may be of his current misery, it would be unfair to ignore the circumstances under which Shaibu parted ways with Oshiomhole in 2020. Oshiomhole who was then party chairman of the APC had supervised shambolic primaries in a number of states. 

Things fall apart 

The primaries in Edo were obviously meant to settle scores with his protegee, Obaseki, who had developed a mind of his own. Shaibu joined the train of “conscientious objectors,” ostensibly led by Obaseki, who were obliged to part ways with the APC, taking refuge under PDP’s umbrella provided by the former Governor Rivers State Governor, Nyesom Wike. 

But Obaseki, the other significant party in this pathetic drama playing out in Edo, is a man of infinite contradictions, whose chameleonic gifts are matched only by his ruthless deployment of power. Against the run of fair play, Oshiomhole imposed him as his successor in 2016, in a self-aggrandising bid to copy the Tinubu-Fashola model in Lagos; he being the Tinubu of Edo, and Obaseki, the former stockbroker from Afrivest, Edo’s Fashola.

The experiment turned out to be a catastrophic fiasco. Barely two years after take-off, the falcon began to defy the falconer and the monster created in the process now threatens not only the creator but also the supplicant who has dared to challenge it.

Birds of a feather

Obaseki and Shaibu deserve each other. And Oshiomhole, the father of this incorrigible pair and high priest of their shenanigans, must be sorry at what his experiment has brought upon the people of Edo. In all of this, my heart goes out to the people who must now endure 12 months of a government in disarray, hampered by in-fighting and back-stabbing.

The deputy governor has been stripped of his responsibilities of monitoring and reporting the collection of Internally Generated Revenue and also benched from supervising the Sports Ministry.

But it gets even pettier. Shaibu’s sister-in-law, Sabina Chikere, who was until recently permanent secretary of the Sports Ministry, has been redeployed to “Central Administration”, an administrative wasteland. She was lucky not to have been lynched by a politically motivated mob as she tried to retrieve her personal effects from her former office.

And to asphyxiate his deputy, Obaseki sacked media aides attached to that office in a vendetta straight out of former President Olusegun Obasanjo’s playbook during his face-off with Atiku Abubakar.

A resident, Edosa Okunbo, described the fight as “selfish, shameful and diversionary at a time when the state is bedeviled by bad roads and daily killings by rival cult gangs.” Another resident, Isaac Olamikan, said, “The people will be the worse for this in-fighting.”

Even as videos of the governor’s convoy stranded in flooded Benin roads trend, there is still something he manages to do well: calling out the Federal Government’s profligacy. How a governor can superintend over a shambles at home, call out Abuja with a straight face, and also win local elections overwhelmingly at the height of his hubris are part of the inexplicable alchemy of Nigeria’s politics. I don’t get it.

But it doesn’t matter. The emergence of Obaseki in 2016 propped by political heavyweights and supported by some of Nigeria’s high and mighty, including Aliko Dangote, must feel like an investment in junk bonds now. And the governor’s union with Shaibu, must feel like a marriage made in hell. 

I can imagine that folks in Edo Central who have been hard done by over the years must be fancying the clash between Obaseki who is from the South, and Shaibu who is from the North, with extraordinary amusement. It may well be the argument that advances their case for a shot at power in 2024.

I hope, however, for the sake of the long-suffering people of the state that the governor and his deputy will sheathe the sword, let common sense prevail and serve the people they have sworn to serve for their remaining time in office. 

I have seen what appears to be a letter of rapprochement by the deputy governor addressed to the DSS, the governor and the chief judge, on official letterhead and was pleased that Shaibu still has access to his letterhead. I hope the truce holds. As things are now, apart from the two contenders, the only people profiting from this ego-fest are political opportunists and assorted jobbers.

Edo people deserve far, far better than being spectators in a pointless, diversionary ego war. 

** Ishiekwene is Editor-In-Chief of LEADERSHIP

On Wednesday, September 6, the Presidential Election Petitions Court, PEPC, delivered judgement in the petitions filed by Atiku Abubakar and the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, Peter Obi and the Labour Party, and the Allied Peoples Movement, APM, challenging the declaration of Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress, APC, winner of the February 25 presidential poll.

It is instructive that the ruling came exactly on the day the respondent, Bola Tinubu, marked his 100th day in office as President. It is also worth noting that as the judgement was being delivered in Abuja, Tinubu who ordinarily should be in the eye of the storm, was in far-away New Delhi, India, where he is representing Nigeria on an observer status at the summit of the group of 20 most industrialised nations, G20, the premier forum for international economic cooperation, on the invitation of the incumbent chairman, Narendra Modi, Prime Minister of India.

I doubt if there is any Nigerian who was in doubt what the outcome of the case would be. Before he left Nigeria for India on Monday, Tinubu’s spokesman, Ajuri Ngelale, told Nigerians that his principal was “not worried” about the outcome of the court matter. The braggadocio of the Tinubu loyalists in the week leading up to the judgement day pointed to the fact that they were sure of the outcome.

As the PEPC was delivering its judgement on Wednesday, a friend of mine, a senior lawyer, sent me a text enquiring if I was watching it on television. He said the judges couldn’t even have done a better job as defence attorneys. I asked him if the judiciary can ever be redeemed and his answer was a categorical No!

I was saddened. Make no mistake about it. I have never believed that Nigerian courts are capable of delivering justice particularly in matters of high-octane political value like this one. So, I was not saddened because I was disappointed. No! But to realise that many lawyers are increasingly losing faith in the ability of the courts to deliver justice is a bad omen.

I have had discussions in recent times with many politicians who have been in courts either defending their “mandates” as declared by the electoral umpire or trying to retrieve their alleged “stolen mandates”. It has been a tale of woes on both sides. The only determinant factor is money – loads of money.

But the outcome of this case should worry any well-meaning Nigerian because it impugns on our so-called democracy. For democracy to be “government of the people, by the people, for the people” as former U.S. President Abraham Lincoln, noted in his famous Gettysburg address on November 19, 1863, the votes of the people must be the sole determinant of who gets elected. That is not the case in Nigeria, as indeed it is not in many other African countries, where elections are not free and fair.

In every milieu where might is right, and those who are powerful can do what they wish unchallenged, even if their action is, in fact, unjustified, woe betides anyone who stands in their way. That is clearly the case with our dear country where a few people have totally captured the state. There is everything wrong with our democracy. In a country where there is no difference between private and public purse, swearing in “winners” of a contentious election before the final determination is made in court is injurious not only to the so-called losers but the Nigerian state itself.

All the odds are against the petitioners. Attempt by the National Assembly in 2014 to make a law that would make the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, take the responsibility of proving the conduct and regularity of elections in the country before the election petitions tribunal or the court failed. If that Bill had scaled through, the resultant Act would have placed the burden of proof on the INEC, instead of the litigants. It would have also reduced the difficulties petitioners normally face while trying to get the necessary documentary evidence in support of their petitions.

In their ruling, yesterday, the five Justices blamed the petitioners for not producing enough evidence of electoral malfeasance even when they were well aware that the Mahmoud Yakubu-led INEC blatantly refused to avail them those documents, flagrantly disobeying the Tribunal’s order. While the alleged losers who, for all I care, may indeed be the winners are further stretched financially in courts, those that have been declared winners, who may indeed be the losers, make use of public funds in defending their “mandates” in court.

Not only that, they deploy the resources of the state – human and material – maximally. As it is the case in this instant case, Tinubu has been using the enormous privileges and powers conferred on him by the office of the presidency to consolidate power and entrench himself. He sacked the Service Chiefs and appointed his loyalists. In a country where the military swear allegiance to the President rather than the Constitution, and are only interested in regime protection rather than protection of the Nigerian state, wielding the coercive powers of the state makes all the difference.

Immediately the PEPC announced the judgement date, the Department of State Services, DSS, issued an ominous warning against anyone who may have the appetite to protest the ruling. Before Tinubu jetted out to India, he had a meeting with all the Service Chiefs behind closed doors. The military top brass came out of the meeting to warn would-be “troublemakers”.

While the petitioners were finding it difficult to make a headway in the case, the President was busy making juicy appointments and dispensing political patronages. Lateef Fagbemi, a Senior Advocate of Nigeria, one of Tinubu’s lawyers at the tribunal, is now the Attorney General of the Federation, AGF, and Minister of Justice. Even presidential candidates of some political parties are seriously lobbying Tinubu for a slice of the national cake and pledging their unalloyed loyalty.

I doubt if there is any Nigerian who sincerely believed that the PEPC will sack Tinubu. And yesterday’s judgement will only be a fait accompli at the Supreme Court should the petitioners decide to go on appeal. Those who insist that what happened at the Tribunal on Wednesday is evidence that Nigeria is still groping in the dark, may not be wrong after all. Someone quipped: “After seeing this, do you still want to waste time on Nigeria’s judiciary and questionable politicians?” Some do but I don’t. Tinubu has wangled his way to the presidency and used the judiciary to legitimise his position. 

Ours is a democracy where the people have no say. As a pall of silence descends on Nigeria once again as it was the case when Yakubu declared the presidential election result in the wee hours of the morning when most people were asleep, highly distraught but subdued Nigerians will pick the pieces of their lives and move on. But I foresee danger. Aside Nigerians like myself who have vowed never to vote again in any Nigerian election and the attendant voter apathy, those who are still foolhardy to throw their hat into the electoral ring may decide that henceforth every electoral battle must be waged, won or lost at the polling booth rather than waiting for INEC to make a declaration and embark on a wild goose chase at the courts. When the judiciary wittingly or unwillingly takes the role of democracy undertakers, that is a recipe for anarchy!