New military government seeks help from Wagner mercenaries against ECOWAS intervention, according to a report.

Niger’s coup generals have asked for help from the Russian mercenary group Wagner as the deadline nears for it to release the country’s removed president or face possible military intervention by the West African regional bloc, a news report says.

The request came during a visit by a coup leader – General Salifou Mody – to neighbouring Mali, where he made contact with someone from Wagner, Wassim Nasr, a journalist and senior research fellow at the Soufan Center, told The Associated Press.

Three Malian sources and a French diplomat confirmed the meeting first reported by France 24, Nasr added.

“They need [Wagner] because they will become their guarantee to hold onto power,” he said, adding the private military company is considering the request.

Niger’s military government faces a Sunday deadline set by the regional bloc known as ECOWAS to release and reinstate the democratically elected President Mohamed Bazoum, who has described himself as a hostage.

Defence chiefs from ECOWAS members finalised an intervention plan on Friday and urged militaries to prepare resources after a mediation team sent to Niger on Thursday was not allowed to enter or meet with military government leader General Abdourahmane Tchiani.

After his visit to Mali, run by a sympathetic military government, Mody warned against military intervention, promising Niger would do what it takes not to become “a new Libya”, Niger’s state television reported.

Niger has been seen as the West’s last reliable counterterrorism partner in a region where coups have been common in recent years. Military leaders have rejected former coloniser France and turned towards Russia.

Wagner operates in a handful of African countries, including Mali, where human rights groups have accused its forces of deadly abuses.

‘It’s all a sham’

Some residents rejected the military’s takeover.

“It’s all a sham,” said Amad Hassane Boubacar, who teaches at the University of Niamey.

“They oppose foreign interference to restore constitutional order and legality. But on the contrary, they are ready to make a pact with Wagner and Russia to undermine the constitutional order … They are prepared for the country to go up in flames so that they can illegally maintain their position.”

Niger’s military leaders have been following the playbook of Mali and neighbouring Burkina Faso, also run by military governments, but they are moving faster to consolidate power, Nasr said.

“[Tchiani] chose his path so he’s going full-on it without wasting time because there’s international mobilisation.”

One question is how the international community will react if Wagner comes in, he said. When Wagner came into Mali at the end of 2021, the French military was removed soon afterwards after years of partnership. Wagner was later designated a “terrorist” organisation by the United States, and international partners might have a stronger reaction now, Nasr said.

And much more is at stake in Niger, where the US and other partners have poured hundreds of millions of dollars of military assistance to combat the region’s growing security threat.

No details on possible intervention

It’s unclear what a regional intervention would look like, when it would begin, or whether it would receive support from Western forces. Niger’s military government has called on the population to watch for spies, and self-organised defence groups have mobilised at night to monitor cars and patrol the capital.

“If the junta were to dig in its heels and rally the populace around the flag – possibly even arming civilian militias – the intervention could morph into a multifaceted counterinsurgency that ECOWAS would not be prepared to handle,” said a report by the Hudson Institute.

While some in Niger are bracing for a fight, others are trying to cope with travel and economic sanctions imposed by ECOWAS after the coup that have closed land and air borders with ECOWAS countries and suspended commercial and financial transactions with them.

Residents said the price of goods is rising and there’s limited access to cash.

“We are deeply concerned about the consequences of these sanctions, especially their impacts on the supply of essential food products, pharmaceuticals, medical equipment, petroleum products and electricity,” said Sita Adamou, president of Niger’s Association to Defend Human Rights.

Aljazeera

Algeria is categorically against any military intervention in Niger, Ennahar TV said late on Saturday citing President Abdelmadjid Tebboune.

"A military intervention could ignite the whole Sahel region and Algeria will not use force with its neighbours," Tabboune said in an interview with local media.

Reuters

A West African bloc has given Niger’s military junta until Sunday to step down or face a possible military intervention. If such an operation were to happen, NatSec Daily has been told to expect one of two general outcomes.

The first is the “shit show” scenario, as described by former NSC director for African affairs CAMERON HUDSON. He argues that military moves by the Economic Community of West African States would lead to a conflict between inexperienced and relatively weak forces.

“ECOWAS has no recent experience undertaking this kind of operation. It’s not something they even train for,” Hudson added, noting that a country like Nigeria is still struggling to defeat the Boko Haram terrorist group inside its borders. There’s also the possibility of Mali and Burkina Faso intervening to help — not combat — the coup’s perpetrators. “An intervention now has all the makings of a regional war,” Hudson said.

The second scenario is still bad, but not as dire. J. PETER PHAM, a former top U.S. diplomat for the Sahel now at the Atlantic Council, contends the junta-aligned countries have militaries that would struggle even getting to Niger. Burkina Faso’s forces have seen nearly two-thirds of the nation’s territory taken over by insurgents, while Mali’s military only has one transport plane, he said.

Both those nations, per Pham, “will have trouble fighting their way out of the bag that they’re in.”

What he suspects instead is ECOWAS aims to pressure Niger’s military to root out the junta. After all, the coup leaders and their followers are a fraction of the Nigerien forces, meaning that the rest of the military would outnumber and overpower those holding ousted president MOHAMED BAZOUM — although doing so without endangering his life and family is another matter.

“The best armed and trained units are the special force battalions the U.S. has trained and the French have trained,” said Pham, adding many of them aren’t in the capital, Niamey, because they’re out in the countryside fighting insurgents and terrorist groups.

KEN OPALO, a Georgetown University professor of African politics, said ECOWAS should prioritize non-military options. “They’d be much better off working on a face-saving off ramp through an African Union process,” he said, such as defining a fixed timeline for the return of civilian rule. “It’s a terrible situation and there are simply no good options on the table.”

The Biden administration is signaling it doesn’t want to see an uptick in fighting, though it considers any questions about a future intervention as a hypothetical scenario. “Nobody wants to see anybody get hurt, and certainly we don’t want to see any resolution of this that would result in violence of any kind,” NSC spokesperson JOHN KIRBY told reporters Thursday.

There are growing worries about what’s to come. Paris announced today that it has evacuated more than 1,000 French and other nationals from Niger. On Wednesday, the U.S issued an ordered departure for much of its embassy personnel in Niamey, with the State Department saying the mission had “suspended routine services.”

The Biden administration has yet to call the military takeover a coup, claiming there’s still room for diplomacy to put Bazoum back in charge. Just today, on Niger’s independence day no less, President JOE BIDEN said “the Nigerien people have the right to choose their leaders…I call for President Bazoum and his family to be immediately released, and for the preservation of Niger’s hard-earned democracy.”

Bazoum’s been on the phone with many foreign officials, including several calls with Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN. Still, the Biden administration hasn’t announced any such call by the president.

Politico

Nnamdi Kanu, leader of the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB), has directed Southeast residents to set aside Mondays as empowerment days in the region.

Spokesperson of IPOB, Emma Powerful, disclosed this in a statement on Saturday.

Powerful said Kanu gave the directive as a follow-up to his earlier cancellation of the controversial sit-at-home usually enforced by a faction of the IPOB on Mondays.

He did not, however, mention when the IPOB leader gave the directive.

“Economic Empowerment Day connotes a day set aside for mass mobilisation of Biafrans to devote their resources and means towards reversing the sharp and unprecedented decline in the economic needs of our people occasioned by the prolonged sit-at-home,” Powerful said.

Continuing, he said, “During this exercise, Biafrans are encouraged to embark on massive deployment of their resources for their empowerment of the educationally disadvantaged and poverty-ridden population of our people.

“Through education, employment, health services, a sense of identity and community, our people and indeed, the Eastern region, can begin to thrive and grow.”

The IPOB spokesperson said the decision was in response to an urgent need to reclaim the lost glory of the Southeast residents by empowering them with the resources they need to live beyond “mere subsistence.”

He pointed out that the people had long been noted for their hard work, resilience and greatness.

“Also, the implication of this Economic Empowerment Day, is that Biafrans are expected to devote significant time to adhere to their routine calendar schedule template strictly and uninterruptedly to make up for humongous time lost to the activities of misguided enforcers of the unsanctioned Monday sit-at-home order,” he added.‘Nnamdi Kanu’s letter authentic’

Kanu in late July, via a handwritten letter given to Aloy Ejimakor, his special counsel, had ordered Simon Ekpa, a pro-Biafran agitator, to stop issuing sit-at-home orders in the region.

But Ekpa, who has been issuing sit-at-home orders in the region, described the letter as “fake,” and maintained that the civil action would go on until Kanu speaks to him directly in Finland, a North European country, where he (Ekpa) resides.

Speaking on the issue, Powerful stressed that the handwritten letter from Kanu ordering the cancellation of all sit-at-home orders in the region was authentic and that it was not written “under any duress, compulsion or influence of any kind.”

The IPOB spokesperson said the State Security Service cannot influence the IPOB leader on what to do or say.

“Anybody questioning the authenticity of the handwritten letter suspending further Monday sit-at-home is patently dishonest and not worthy to be called a Biafran.

“Anybody who claims to know Kanu will also know that nobody will be courageous enough to coerce him to do anything that will jeopardise the restoration of Biafra,” he stated.

PT

WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Ukraine seeks progress towards peace at Saudi Arabia talks

Senior officials from some 40 countries including the U.S., China and India held talks in Saudi Arabia on Saturday that Kyiv and its allies hope will lead to agreement on key principles for a peaceful end to Russia's war in Ukraine.

The two-day meeting is part of a diplomatic push by Ukraine to build support beyond its core Western backers by reaching out to Global South countries that have been reluctant to take sides in a conflict that has hit the global economy.

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, who hopes to agree principles for a summit of global leaders that he is seeking on the issue in the autumn, said it would be important to hold bilateral talks on the sidelines of the Jeddah meeting.

Speaking on Saturday, he acknowledged there were differences among the countries attending, but said the rules-based international order must be restored.

"Different continents, different political approaches to world affairs. But all are united by the priority of international law," he said.

Russia is not attending, though the Kremlin has said it will keep an eye on the talks. Ukrainian, Russian and international officials say there is no prospect of direct peace talks between Ukraine and Russia at present, with the war raging.

A European Union official said there would be no joint statement after the meeting, but that the Saudis would present a plan for further talks, with working groups to discuss issues such as global food security, nuclear safety and prisoner releases.

The official described the talks as positive, and said there was "agreement that respect of territorial integrity and (the) sovereignty of Ukraine needs to be at the heart of any peace settlement".

The world's top oil exporter Saudi Arabia, which has maintained contacts with both sides since Russia invaded Ukraine last February, has played a role in convening countries that did not join earlier meetings, Western diplomats have said.

China, which did not attend a previous round of talks in Copenhagen, is sending Special Envoy for Eurasian Affairs Li Hui, Beijing said on Saturday. China has kept close economic and diplomatic ties with Russia since the conflict began and has rejected calls to condemn Moscow.

"We have many disagreements and we have heard different positions, but it is important that our principles are shared," he said.

Indian National Security Adviser Shri Ajit Doval has also arrived in Jeddah for the talks, the Indian embassy in Riyadh said on social media on Saturday. Like China, India has kept close ties with Russia and refused to condemn it for the war. It has ramped up imports of Russian oil.

Of the other countries in the BRICS group with Russia, China and India, South Africa has sent President Cyril Ramaphosa's security adviser Sydney Mufamadi, and Brazil's top foreign policy adviser, Celso Amorim, will join by videolink.

SAUDI DIPLOMACY

Western officials and analysts said Saudi diplomacy had been important in securing China's presence at the talks.

Under de facto ruler Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, known as MbS, the kingdom has sought a bigger role on the world stage and has pushed to expand ties with major powers outside the old framework of its relationship with the U.S.

Riyadh has worked with Moscow in recent years on oil market policy and, along with Turkey, it helped mediate a prisoner swap between Ukraine and Russia last year. Zelenskiy attended an Arab League summit in Saudi Arabia last year where MbS voiced readiness to help mediate in the war.

Saudi Arabia has also built a closer relationship with China over the past year, giving an effusive welcome to Chinese President Xi Jinping when he visited Riyadh in December, and seeking to join the China-led Shanghai Cooperation Organization.

In March, Beijing brokered a resumption of ties between Saudi Arabia and its arch regional foe Iran.

Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, Middle East fellow at Rice University's Baker Institute, said China's attendance sent a signal of support for Saudi Arabian diplomacy that built on other areas of recent Chinese-Saudi cooperation.

"Chinese participation in the talks is a boost to the Saudi narrative that their convening power and ability to leverage relationships is qualitatively different to Western parties," he said.

However, China's presence does not indicate it will ultimately agree to the results sought by Ukraine and its allies, said Yun Sun, director of the China programme at the Stimson Center in Washington.

"Participating in a meeting only suggests the willingness to listen and discuss. It by no means suggests that China has to agree to anything in the end," Sun said.

** Ukraine hits Russian tanker with sea drone near Crimea Bridge

A Ukrainian sea drone full of explosives struck a Russian fuel tanker overnight near a bridge linking Russia to annexed Crimea, the second such attack in 24 hours, both sides said on Saturday.

No one was hurt, but the Crimean Bridge and ferry transport were suspended for several hours, according to Russian-installed officials in Crimea, which Moscow seized from Ukraine in 2014.

A Ukrainian intelligence source told Reuters that the drone with 450 kg of explosives hit the SIG vessel as it transported fuel for the Russian military in Ukrainian territorial waters.

"The tanker was well loaded with fuel, so the 'fireworks' were seen from afar," the source said, of the joint operation by Ukraine's navy and security service.

Kyiv says destroying Russia's military infrastructure inside Russia or on Russian-controlled territory in Ukraine is crucial to its counteroffensive after the February 2022 invasion.

Another sea drone attack on Russia's navy base at Novorossiysk damaged a warship on Friday, the first time the Ukrainian navy had projected its power so far from its shores.

And a Ukrainian government agency warned on Saturday that six Russian Black Sea ports - Anapa, Novorossiysk, Gelendzhik, Tuapse, Sochi, and Taman - were in "war risk area".

FUEL FOR TROOPS

The SIG tanker had been supplying oil to Russian troops in Syria, according to Vladimir Rogov, a Russian-appointed official in Ukraine's southeastern region of Zaporizhzhia.

The United States imposed sanctions on the tanker and its owner, St. Petersburg-based Transpetrochart, in 2019 for helping provide jet fuel in Syria.

Vasyl Malyuk, head of Ukraine's SBU security service, did not directly confirm the latest attack but said any incident with Russian ships or the Crimean bridge was "an absolutely logical and efficient step towards the enemy".

"Moreover, such special operations are conducted in the territorial waters of Ukraine and are completely legal," Malyuk said on the Telegram messaging app.

Russia's Novorossiysk Maritime Rescue Coordination Centre was quoted by the RIA news agency as saying there was no fuel spill from the SIG, as the ship had been carrying only technical ballast. Recovery work was underway with two tugboats nearby.

Rogov posted an audio clip on Telegram in which the SIG requested a tow. He also posted pictures of what he described as shattered fixtures and equipment inside the vessel.

"The SIG tanker ... received a hole in the engine room near the waterline on the starboard side, preliminarily as a result of a sea drone attack," Russia's Federal Marine and River Transport agency said in a statement on Telegram.

The Moscow-installed authorities in Crimea said the bridge, which was completed by Russia in 2018 and has come under serious attack twice in the war, was not targeted.

** Russia official blames Ukraine cluster shells for Donetsk fire

A university building in Donetsk in eastern Ukraine was in flames late on Saturday following Ukrainian shelling, the Russian-installed mayor of the city said.

"As a result of the latest attack on Donetsk, the first building of the university of economics and trade is on fire," Alexei Kulemzin, the Russian-installed mayor, said on Telegram.

He said preliminary information indicated the cause of the fire was an attack by Ukrainian forces using cluster munitions. Reuters could not verify details of his account.

Ukraine, which received supplies of cluster munitions from the United States last month, has vowed to use them only to dislodge concentrations of enemy soldiers.

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

Medvedev hints at more attacks on Western Ukraine

Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has suggested more devastating attacks on Ukraine’s western regions in response to a string of drone strikes against Moscow’s ships and civilian vessels in the Black Sea.

Medvedev, who is deputy chairman of the Russian Security Council, made his comments on Saturday after a sea drone damaged an oil tanker off the coast of Crimea. The ex-president blamed the attack on Ukraine, saying it was meant to trigger an environmental disaster in the Black Sea, and he called for Moscow to follow up on recent port attacks that came in response to last month’s Ukrainian drone strike on the Crimean Bridge.

“Scumbags and freaks understand only cruelty and force,” Medvedev said in a social media post. “Apparently, the strikes on Odessa, Izmail and other places were not enough for them.”

He also suggested that Russian retaliation for the drone attacks would eliminate any chance of reviving the grain deal that had enabled Ukraine to ship its grain exports through the Black Sea. “If the Kiev scum want to create an ecological disaster in the Black Sea, they should get one on the part of their territory that will soon fall to Poland and that will stink for centuries after that. That will be the final judgment on the grain deal,”Medvedev warned.

Ukrainian sea drones also targeted civilian ships and their Russian naval escorts earlier this week, and attacked the Black Sea Fleet base at Novorossiysk on Friday. Kiev also has stepped up aerial drone attacks on civilian targets in Russian territory, including Moscow’s financial district.

Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu has claimed that Ukrainian drone attacks on civilian targets are attempts to distract from Kiev’s faltering counteroffensive in the Donbass region.

** Zelensky fears peace pressure from West – NYT

Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky is reportedly worried that Western nations may ramp up pressure to negotiate a peace agreement with Russia, ending a bloody conflict that has killed tens of thousands of Kiev’s troops in just the past two months.

“As furious battles raged across the front lines of Europe’s bloodiest war in decades, Zelensky told his ambassadors on Wednesday that things would grow even more difficult as pressure was likely to build in the coming months to find a negotiated path to peace,” the New York Times reported on Saturday.

The Ukrainian president described Wednesday’s gathering in Kiev with diplomats as an “emergency strategy session” heading into this weekend’s Ukraine peace summit in Saudi Arabia, the newspaper said. “The meeting is the starting point of what is expected to be a major Ukrainian diplomatic push in the coming months to try to undercut Russia.”

Zelensky told his ambassadors that they must use every available tool – “official and unofficial, institutional and media, cultural diplomacy and the power of ordinary human sincerity” – to convince both allies and neutral nations that “the only road to a lasting peace is complete Russian defeat,”according to the report.

However, many of the nations attending the summit in Saudi Arabia have resisted US pressure to take sides in the crisis, seeing the conflict as a “contest between superpowers” in which they want no part. “This is not only a conflict between Russia and Ukraine,” said Celso Amorim, an adviser to Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. Speaking remotely on Saturday at the Saudi-hosted summit, he added: “This is also a chapter in the longstanding rivalry between Russia and the West.”

Russian officials have argued that Kiev’s Western backers are only prolonging the bloodshed in Ukraine by continuing to send billions of dollars’ worth of weapons to the former Soviet republic. More than 43,000 Ukrainian troops have been killed since Kiev began a counteroffensive in the Donbass region in early June, the Russian Defense Ministry said on Friday.

Russian and Ukrainian negotiators were reportedly near a peace deal at talks hosted by Türkiyein March 2022, a little more than a month after the conflict began. “After we pulled troops back from Kiev, as we promised,”Ukrainian leaders “threw it all away, into the garbage dump of history,”Russian President Vladimir Putin said at a meeting with African leaders in July.

Reuters/RT

It all began as a roadside rumour before blasting its way to the front pages of Nigerian newspapers, and the talking points of the electronic media. Now it has become a news item discussed with torment and trepidation by many Nigerians still struggling to cope with the political dysfunctionalities, socio-economic problems, and numerous anxieties of present Nigerian life.

The ‘subject of discourse’ is the coup d’etat in Niger, our neighbour to the north, and the present plan by ECOWAS, under your leadership, to force the restoration of democratic governance in that beleaguered country. What has got many Nigerians talking – and wondering – is the inclusion of military action in the cocktail of options under consideration by the ECOWAS leaders. And this is also the cause of my worry and grave apprehension. Military force to reverse the occurrence of rule by force in West Africa, with you, President Bola Tinubu, the current ECOWAS president,  as leader of the pack? I am both astonished and alarmed that a group of people, least of all, leaders of the West African region would contemplate the viability of military intervention as the solution to the present problem in Niger.

Dear President Tinubu, did you and your colleagues think long and deep before including this option? Did you contemplate the hazards of the action and the possible catastrophe of the consequence? Given the historical, geographical, cultural, and economic proximity between Nigeria and Niger (a Siamese closeness inherent even in the very nomenclature), how can you do this without devastating collateral damage to Nigeria, especially its northern flanks? In a region where national borders only exist on a misbegotten colonial  map, how will your ECOWAS bullet select its casualties without including Nigerians, the people you have sworn to serve and protect? Will the present human traffic and trade routes between the two countries still continue after the ‘war’? What about the possibility of a multiple-front war, considering the solidarity already announced by a ‘league’ of other countries in the region, such as Mali and Chad and Burkina Faso? To how many fronts will the ECOWAS forces train their guns?

For the avoidance of doubt, let no one take my position in this brief intervention as toleration or condonement of military coups and their barbarous assault on human freedom. As a Nigerian victim of about half a dozen coups d’etat in a single lifetime, I know first-hand how brutal soldier-despots are, and how drastically they deplete our very humanity. This is why I believe military juntas have no place in a civilised polity. This is why I also believe and affirm that genuine democracy is the sure antidote to military misrule – a democracy engendered and sustained by respect for human dignity, human and environmental rights, rule of law, liberty, unvarnished  integrity of the electoral  process, holistic equity, and the right to life that is full, free, and abundant. These virtues are the true and efficacious coup-killers. Not military-contra-military interventions and their thoughtless prosecutions and ceaseless carnage.

So, Mr President, go back to the drawing board – you and your ECOWAS colleagues. Think hard. Think well. Think up whatever measures could be devised to restore genuine, lasting democracy by getting the military dictators back to their barracks. Probe the cause, course, and symptoms of the present resurgence of military coups in West Africa. Find a cure for this pandemic. More important, find a cure for the plague of political and socio-economic injustices responsible for the inevitability of its recurrence. Remember the present brutish anarchy in Libya and the countless repercussions of the destabilisation of that once blooming country for the West African region.

Military action in Niger may only end up complicating the Nigerien fiasco. Remember: a little fire often spirals into an uncontrollable blaze. You may know the beginning of a war; but you can never foretell how it will end. A powerful man may start a war, but it takes a hero to devise a dignifying way of avoiding it.

Right now, the Nigerian people have more than enough to worry about, with so much hunger in the land and so many Internally Displaced Persons (IDP) from all manner of bandit attacks. We cannot afford to add war refuges to these crowds. You have promised to reduce the people’s burden. Avoid taking any action that will only add to it.

Domestic security is the inevitable foundation for foreign campaigns. Let your charity begin at home, though  we know it must never end there.

Your Concerned Compatriot,

Niyi Osundare.

One of Africa’s foremost poets and academics, Niyi Osundareis Emeritus Distinguished Professor of English, University of New Orleans. 

Yoruba have a way with the Sigidi, whose closest modern translation is the robot. So when the Sigidi – a moulded clay effigy – at the height of its self-destruct, asks that it be taken to the river to swim, Yoruba say a catastrophe is in the offing. They render this as, Sigidi nse’re ete, o ni ki won gbe’hun l’odo lo we. Just as the modern robot is credited with the power to take some human actions, the Sigidi too, in the belief of the Yoruba, could. It was one of the insignias of operation of the babalawo. It is puttied all over by clay that is easily dissoluble in water. So, for the Sigidi to ask to be taken to go swim is an invitation to destruction.

Those days when African military generals prepared to embark on war expeditions, they began to manifest queer, supra-human and impenetrable behavior. They recoiled from the world and its realities, wore frightening, fearsome visages and immersed themselves in huge pots of metaphysical liquid preparations Yoruba called agbo ogun. Natives then sang songs to scintillate their bloodthirsty bellicosity. One of such was a song meant to nourish the warmongering inclination in them, rendered as, O npa’le ogun mo, Edumare ma je o t’enu mi jade…

Today marks the expiry of President Bola Tinubu’s ultimatum to the coup plotters of Niger Republic. Against the run of play, when Tinubu, last Friday, wrote the Nigerian Senate seeking its support for military intervention against the junta in Niger Republic, his sabre-rattling bore similar features with those of 17th, 18th and 19th century warlords. Like the Ekitiparapo war which was fought from 1877 to 1893, most wars are triggered by, most times, mundane issues which are however a burst of deep-seated resentments and animosities. This war was regarded as one of the greatest of all wars among the Yoruba, in fact its bloodiest and the most unforgettable in history. It was a war renowned for its varied nomenclatures.

In its rendering as Kiriji War, that appellation was got from the onomatopoeic vibrations of Kirijiji! Kirijiji!! Kirijiji!!! which accompanied the booms of cannons and modern artillery munitions of the said war. When it is rendered as the Ekitiparapo War, it is in reference to the alliance of Ekiti-speaking Yoruba who gathered their ljesa, Igbomina, Egba, ljebu, Ilorin and allied enemies of Ibadan to fight them. Ibadan had by then become so pompous and belligerently oppressive to other parts of Yoruba. As War to End all Wars, it was in reference to the war being the last major war in the 19th century in Yorubaland; and finally, when rendered as The Sixteen Years War, that war’s notoriety for having been prosecuted for 16 consecutive years non-stop is the reference.

While Tinubu’s lure for this war is, on the surface, to protect the ravishing beauty called democracy that may be raped to death in Nigeria’s neighbouring Niger Republic, the bait of the Ekiti Parapo War was Falola, the pretty and delectable wife of warlord, Prince Fabunmi Abe Adesoye of Igbo-Odo, a town later to be known as Oke-Mesi. Falola was a victim of the libidinous rascality of an Ajele (Resident) imposed on the town by Ibadan conquistadors. Tinubu, as Chairman of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), and his allies are bent on rescuing democracy, the damsel that General Abdourahmane Tiani, leader of the putschists in Niger coveted. Niger’s democratically elected president, Mohamed Bazoum, had been toppled due to what was referred to as an obscure personnel dispute within Niger’s presidential guard. On a market day in 1876, Oyepetun, the Ibadan Ajele stationed at Imesi-Igbodo, infamous for his avarice, wickedness and general impression that he was one of the most irreverent and badly behaved Residents (Ajele) sent by the Ibadan to Ekiti land, had seized Falola right there in the marketplace, in fact at the front of the Oba’s palace.

General Tiani had exhibited same audacious belligerency. Persuaded that this was an affront of the highest order and a final denouement to the continued desecration of Ekitiland by the Ibadan, Prince Fabunmi stormed the home of the Ajele and beheaded him, alongside all his band of invaders. Another account of what led to the war claimed that rather than Oyepetun sexually abusing Falola, Fabunmi's wife, Oyepetun’s men forcefully took food and palm wine from a woman who was friend to Fabunmi's wife, leading to a fight. In retaliation, Aare Latosa, without giving his proposed expedition a second thought, angrily sent one of his military commanders, Ajayi Ogboriefon, to Igbo-Odo with a single expedition – decapitate Fabunmi and bring his head to Ibadan in a white calabash.

Like Latosa who did not subject the likely scenario in Ekiti to rigorous examination and the probable negative effects of his pugnacious decree, Tinubu too, riled by the temerity of General Tiani, is seeking the Nigerien soldier’s head on a platter. Eventually however, not only did Latosa’s post-hate sabre-rattling become a huge calamity to befall Yorubaland, the Ekitiparapo war, which was one of the most belligerently prosecuted wars in Yorubaland, with variety of munitions, became a massive albatross to the people, hampering integrationist efforts among the people and becoming one of the ancient fault lines of divisiveness among the people. Its capital intensiveness hampered the people’s economy due to the then sophisticated armaments deployed for the prosecution of the war. For the first time, warriors witnessed the usage of costly breech-loading rifles and sophisticated weapons like Winchester, Martini Henri, Sniders, Mauser.

Apart from negatively impacting the socio-economic and political history of Yoruba nation of the 19th century, the war also inflicted huge human losses, leading to the death of hundreds of thousands of people. It also opened Yorubaland to the covert invasion of British colonial penetration. In the same vein, it inflicted significant and far-reaching consequences that led to the opening of the routes to the eventual loss of Ilorin to Alimi’s Fulani. Following from this is its encouragement of the eventual loss of other Yoruba kingdoms to aliens. Historians locate the unending atrocious relationship between the Ife and Modakeke to this peremptory order for the head of Fabunmi by Aare Latosa.

That fractious relationship was later responsible for the hundreds of deaths in the 2000s war between Ife and Modakeke. Modakeke, in the prosecution of the Ekitiparapo war, found themselves allies of Ibadan, deployed to fight the war while their Ife neighbours, fought alongside the Generals of Ekitiparapo. The war also led to Ibadan losing its erstwhile panjandrum role in Yorubaland as a result of this hasty decision by Latosa. Eventually, all Ibadan erstwhile dependencies were severed and granted autonomy by the colonial government who sneaked in on the pretext of seeking armistice. Eventually the Ibadan/Oyo forces that dared the Ekiti had to withdraw. Ogboriefon himself died in the thick of the war.

Last Friday, Tinubu sought the backing of the Nigerian parliament to fight war in Niger. It is alleged that some of the actions on which Tinubu sought senate approval had already been effectuated. For instance, the highly authoritative Wall Street Journal said that even before going to the parliament, he had ordered for Niger to be hit by total darkness. This was done by disconnecting the main transmission lines that provides 75% of Niger’s electricity from Nigeria, thus plunging the Nigerien presidential palace, towns and villages into blackouts. Even the deposed President Bazoum’s cell phone, said the journal, though still remained charged as at the time of the report, stood the risk of running out, leading to him being incommunicado. It is however gladsome that the senate refused this request to invade Niger by the Nigerian president.

The Ekitiparapo War was one of the wars that signified the ambivalent nature of wars. It perhaps was what led to the famous statement that it is only the beginning of a war that is known; no one knows its end. Like the American war against Afghanistan primed to last a few months but which eventually elasticized from 2001 to 2021, ending with the Taliban offensive overthrowing the Islamic Republic and establishing an Islamic Emirate, the Ekitiparapo war also frustrated all strategic permutations, just as the Afghan war did. That war became the longest in US’ military history, even lasting longer than the 20-year-old Vietnam War.

But why, like Aare Latosa, would Tinubu precipitate a war that he has no scientific binoculars to foresee where and when it was heading for? When Ibrahim Babangida, on August 24, 1990, began similar deployment of 3,000 West African troops into the Liberian capital, Monrovia, as part of the ECOWAS Peace Monitoring Group, (ECOMOG) he too never had an idea of the number of persons he would propitiate to the god of leadership ego that suddenly seized him, nor the billions of dollars of Nigeria’s patrimony that would be sunk into the expedition. Envisaging that ECOMOG operation in Liberia would last for just six months, it later lasted for seven years, even expanding its frontiers into neighbouring Sierra Leone.

Till today, the justification given for ECOWAS’ intervention in the Liberian war has been variously faulted and became largely controversial. Some claim that Babangida merely got Nigeria and other African countries to help fight a war to keep his friend, Samuel Doe of Liberia, in office. While the ECOWAS community hung on to Article 16, of the 1981 Defence Protocol, which said that “the Head of State of the member under attack may request action or assistance from the Community,” it was said that Doe never requested the intervention of ECOWAS but merely demanded Babangida’s help. There was also no consensus to intervene, especially from Francophone African states. Indeed, countries like Cote d`Ivoire and Guinea, which were sympathetic towards and even actively supporting the NPFL, were miffed at the ECOMOG intervention. Cote D’Ivoire had always been Nigeria’s regional rival. Thus, while Doe was Babangida, Nigeria President’s bosom friend, Nigeria was to pay heavily through Charles Taylor’s killing of about 1,000 of her nationals in Monrovia in 1990, a list that included journalists Kris Imodibe and Tayo Awotunsin. So, while Nigeria was sympathetic to Doe, Taylor received support from Cote d’Ivoire and Burkino Faso as well as from France and Libya.

As the Babangida friendship war in Liberia dragged on, the operation became progressively dangerous, costly and protracted. By the time ECOMOG pulled out of Liberia in October 1999, Western powers didn’t seem to be aware and stood away from this former American colony. At a reception held in Abuja on the arrival of the last Nigerian ECOMOG soldiers in 1999, President Olusegun Obasanjo said that Nigeria had lost at least 500 of its soldiers, several hundreds were wounded and a staggering sum of US $8 billion was wasted to the peacekeeping operation in Liberia. Obasanjo had concluded, “We will never know the number of Nigerian civilians who lost their lives in the crisis in Liberia.”

From his friends and foes, questions are being asked on why Tinubu suddenly acquired this sudden bellicosity and the reason he is prepared to commit Nigeria to another needless prosecution of war. Could the decision be an outcome of a sudden pounce on him, like the self-revelatory spirit that triggered the removal of subsidy on the day of his inauguration? Explaining his off-the-cuff, unscheduled and unprepared-for severance of the subsidy, the president had said, “I got to the podium, I was possessed with courage, and I said, ‘subsidy is gone’”. Was it the same possessing spirit that is responsible for this ominous throwing of Nigeria into another round of war? 

Already, it is said that the military government in Niger had signed or is in the bid to sign an agreement with Russia’s Wagner PMC for the supply of Specialized defense services to repel Tinubu’s threat of military intervention. Wagner is said to have units in Libya, Mali, and Central African Republic and these military units will proceed to Niger, a republic with a population of 27,294,785, immediately with its 12,000-13,000 Wagner fighters. As diplomatic relationship stands now, Niger has reportedly severed ties with Nigeria and Togo. Rumours have it that Algeria and Egypt, reputed to possess the strongest military strength in Africa, as well as Guinea, Burkina Faso, Libya, Chad, and Mali, are ready to stand with Niger, making this war a perfect replica of the Ekitiparapo War and bonding of allies. 

So, why is Tinubu angling for a war? There is this claim that Tinubu, in the bid to seek the west to legitimize his rule, especially with the judgment of the Presidential Election Court (PEPC) that may “bring anarchy” to Nigeria, is ready to be the lickspittle of the west, anyhow. Indications are rife that the US and the European Union needed an African front to carry their can and Tinubu is a ready tool for this. A military action from ECOWAS may stop Niger’s gravitation towards Russia. Uranium-rich Niger, in 2022, was responsible for 25.38% of EU’s supply, after Kazakstan, which owns world’s largest ounce of uranium. With the Russian uranium export suffering due to sanctions, France and the EU, with huge dependence on nuclear energy, need the sustenance of Niger Republic’s uranium to keep afloat.

The danger for America, which has spent about $500 million to arm and equip Niger’s military, said the Wall Street Journal, is that it may unwittingly be allowing Russia to pick up some of its most treasured drone bases, which are used to fly missions across the Sahara between Libya and Nigeria. Niger had been the centerpiece of America and Europe’s fight against the contagious spread in Africa’s Sahel of Islamic State and al Qaeda, through a spool spin. This spin is “across 3,000-mile semi-arid territory on the southern shore of the Sahara that also includes Burkina Faso, Mali and Chad.” If Tinubu fights their war, sacrificing thousands of Nigerian soldiers in the process, EU and America would in turn rub his back by sustaining his life-long ambition to be Nigeria’s president. Don’t forget that the Tinubu government exhibited palpable fright when the EU cavalierly removed the legitimacy rug off his feet through the damning report it brought out on the election that ensured his presidency.

Unfortunately for Tinubu and his ECOWAS, the coup plotters of Niger have tremendous home support. Tinubu doesn’t have same at home on this war-baiting plan of his. Already, a group of northern senators in a release issued on Friday and signed by Suleiman Kawu Sumaila dissociated itself from Tinubu’s bellicose pursuit. While condemning the Niger coup, the group said it took exception to use of military force because “the consequences will be casualties among the innocent citizens who go about their daily business… (in) the seven northern states who share border with Niger Republic, namely Sokoto, Kebbi, Katsina, Zamfara, Jigawa, Yobe and Borno.” The group thus covertly urged its colleagues in parliament, “to observe due diligence in invoking section 5 sub section (4) (a) and (b) of 1999 Nigerian Constitution as amended,” ostensibly by not giving go-ahead to Tinubu to prosecute the war.

As the senators said, geographically, seven Northern states share borders of 1,608 kilometers with Niger Republic. Shehu Sanni also recently reminded Tinubu that about 3,000 escapees from Boko Haram onslaughts are taking refuge in Nigerien refugee camps. If they could issue their own release too, the Nigerian Army, expected to prosecute the Tinubu war, would openly rebel against it. This is because a huge number of Nigerian military personnel, from headship to the recruits, are believed to share consanguinity with Niger, with their family members and relations based in Niger Republic. Indeed, many of our senators and House of Reps members are suspected to be citizens of Niger Republic. Ex-President Muhammadu Buhari never hid his consanguinity with Niger. Due to the porous borders and filial bonding between the two countries, a Nigerien boy who walks into, say Kano, schools therein and enters the civil service or the military, duds his actual citizenship and easily meshes into Nigeria.

For French-speaking Africa, the fight against France is a war of liberation. A respondent told the Wall Street Journal that “What happened in Niger is nothing other than the struggle of the people of Niger with their colonizers.” Like Nigeria, Niger and other French-speaking African countries had been tied to the apron strings of their colonial masters. Unlike Nigeria, they have made up their minds to exit the servitude. Back here in Nigeria, the ground Tinubu is standing to declare this war is suffering a seismic shake.

The Tinubu declaration of war against Niger could be indicative of two, or even three, things about his presidency. One is that it could be yet another symptom of a peremptory, off-the-cuff, kick-and-follow governance that gives less consideration to the rigour of critical interrogation of issues. The Niger war declaration bears same hollow texture with the fuel subsidy removal. Second, the war may be Tinubu’s Sigidi signaling catastrophe for his government and for our dear country. Unless Tinubu beats a retreat and sticks to shuttle diplomacy with the Niger Republic junta, the war, which he has lost ab initio, even without firing a single bullet, will negatively define his administration. It is a calamity in the making. On a second thought, knowing the stuff that these Lagos politicians are made of, could the flaunt of bravado over Niger Republic, the request to the senate, the rejection and the protests in Niger Republic be a stage-managed choreography, part of the machinations of the Lagos boy to show the west that he tried his best, but his people rebelled against it? Curiouser and curiouser! 

For thus saith the LORD, That after seventy years be accomplished at Babylon I will visit you, and perform my good word toward you, in causing you to return to this place. For I know the thoughts that I think toward you, saith the LORD, thoughts of peace, and not of evil, to give you an expected end ~ Jeremiah 29:10-11.

Introduction

Of a truth, God is always present with us. Albeit, there are spectacular times of supernatural visitation when God formally stops over and spends time with His people purposely to grant them heightened manifestations of His love and power.

Divine visitation describes that sweet experience of supernatural appearance, which effectively culminates in our individual manifestations and accomplishments. It’s the unfailing answer to every form of trouble, frustration and cruel famine (Ruth 1:1-6). Certainly, God does not step into any situation unannounced!

Whenever God shows up, He terminates satanic activities in the lives of His people, especially in situations that have been long standing and have defied all human solutions. When He formally steps in, He provokes for us heaven-on-earth experiences.

When He paid Solomon a formal visit, Solomon became blessed with an unusual wisdom, a long-life of peace, and staggering wealth of an unprecedented magnitude (1 Kings 3:5-13).

Concisely, divine visitation always puts broad smiles on the faces of the visited. God’s visitation doesn’t leave any man on the spot where He meets him. As He visits you this season, may He leave behind in His wake testimonies of loud accomplishments in your life, in Jesus name.

God could visit you no matter the situation (Matthew 8:6). He could visit you no matter who failed in that case before now (Mark 9:17-27). He could even visit you no matter how late it appears. If you doubt this, please ask from Lazarus and his sisters, Mary and Martha (John 11:1-44).

Indeed, when God steps into any situation, no matter how difficult it is, His glory turns it around, and His mighty wonders become inevitable. Even bitter tears are wiped away by the Dayspring from on high (Luke 7:11-16).

For the avoidance of ambiguity, I must emphasize that all “divine visitations” are supernatural events, but not all “supernatural visitations” are divine in origin. Therefore, for our lasting joy, peace and spiritual sanity, we must strictly, solely and wholly follow the Lord and the course of His visitation.

Two Kinds of Divine Visitation!

The path to fulfillment of destiny on earth is littered with desperate traitors and wicked predators. Albeit, our Father-God still wishes that we finish strong in the race of life, and accomplish our goals very graciously. Hence, He always chooses to visit us for good, in Christ Jesus.

Whenever God visits His people for good, He releases fresh glory upon them and brings them fitting miracles in order to preserve their dignity, restore their dominion and redeem their honour (Job 10:12; Luke 1:68).

He stepped into Egypt with signs and wonders and mighty acts, and He brought Israel out of Egypt (Exodus 3:16-17). He visited Abraham, and his wife, Sarah, gave birth to Isaac (Genesis 21:1-3)! When He visited Hannah, she conceived, and gave birth to three sons and two daughters (1 Samuel 2:21).

However, in the days of the rebellion of Korah, Dathan, and Abiram, Moses spoke thus: “If these men die the common death of all men, or if they be visited after the visitation of all men; then the LORD hath not sent me” (Numbers 16:29). Very clearly, Moses was referring to two different kinds of visitation: the visitation for preservation, and the visitation for vengeance.

Understanding The Vengeance of God!

Whenever God visits His people for good, He simultaneously visits and handicaps their stubborn enemies with His vengeance (Hebrews 10:30). This is to ensure that His covenant children stay out of the reach of evil (Job 5:19).

The truth is, God doesn’t spare His enemies that reject His mercy. He doesn’t hesitate to pour out His vial of vengeance and wrath upon them, but, He readily avenges His covenant children to save them from troubles (Jeremiah 8:12; 10:15).

God’s vengeance is always swift as lightning and deadly sure, to vindicate His covenant people (Isaiah 26:13-14; 29:5-7). For instance, the rebellious three — Korah, Dathan, and Abiram — were  summarily buried alive with their entire households.

Now, the Lord’s “vengeance” must be understood in light of His full character, including His essence of justice. God would violate His own character if He overlooked wickedness, and didn’t bring it to justice: “They are vanity, and the work of errors: in the time of their visitation they shall perish” (Jeremiah 10:15).

Yes, human beings always frown at the idea of God’s vengeance; even then, none that breaks the “hedge” can escape it, except by God’s grace and mercy (Deuteronomy 32:39-43). He’s the God of mercy, but mercy requires that there be justice. That’s the reason why Jesus Christ died to pay the price for our sins, to satisfy the demands of justice (John 3:16; Colossians 2:14; Romans 3:20-26).

Meanwhile, vengeance belongs to God alone (Deuteronomy 32:35). Thus, the Bible prohibits the believers, under any guise or circumstance, from taking personal revenge upon their enemies (Leviticus 19:18; Romans 12:19). Rather, the power to execute vengeance has been divinely delegated to human governments on earth.

In conclusion, please keep in mind that divine visitation is connected to a sense of divine timing, and it draws heavily on divine promises. But, it’s provoked through supplication. Hence, God said, “Put me in remembrance: let us plead together …. that thou mayest be justified” (Isaiah 43:26).

It is your declaration of God’s promises in prayers that justifies you for His visitation. And, whenever God shows up, Satan automatically bows out. Why? Light and darkness don’t cohabit. God always shows up in the glories of His Shekinah Light — His natural habitat — and darkness in all its shades naturally disappear at His appearance!

Friends and brethren, I see God showing up in your address this season. He will visit you with land-mark miracles. He will bless and settle you, and you will have many reasons to testify. You won’t miss this, in Jesus Name. Amen. Happy Sunday!

____________________

Bishop Taiwo Akinola,

Rhema Christian Church,

Otta, Ogun State, Nigeria.

Connect with Bishop Akinola via these channels:

Facebook: www.facebook.com/bishopakinola

SMS/WhatsApp: +234 802 318 4987

According to God’s kingdom dynamics, Moses can never enter the Promised Land. God says: “The older shall serve the younger.” (Genesis 25:23). The law came first and is therefore the older. Grace came second and is therefore the younger. Therefore, grace must supersede the law.

Moses, the lawgiver, must give way to Joshua whose name is the shortened form of Jesus’ Hebrew name, Yehoshua, which means God saves. God’s providence must somehow trip up Moses, because the first, the law, cannot take anyone to God. Only the last, grace, can do so.

The law was given by Moses, but grace and truth came through Jesus Christ. No one comes to the Father except through Jesus. No one can come to the Father through Moses.

The law of sin death came first through Moses. But this has been superseded by the law of the spirit of life in Christ Jesus, which came second. The law bring death, but the spirit brings life.

The flesh came first in natural man. But the spirit came second in the born-again man. Since God says: “the older shall serve the younger,” then the flesh must ultimately succumb to the spirit in the man who is born-again. He will finally totally relinquish the sinful part of his nature on his deathbed: “For he who has died has been freed from sin.” (Romans 6:7). 

Accordingly, Paul points out that: “The body is sown in corruption, it is raised in incorruption. It is sown in dishonour; it is raised in glory. It is sown in weakness; it is raised in power. It is sown a natural body; it is raised a spiritual body. There is a natural body, and there is a spiritual body.” (1 Corinthians 15:42-44).

God’s firstborn

God says: “Israel is My son, My firstborn.” (Exodus 4:22). Therefore, Israel must become last. The Gentiles who were last must become first.

God’s firstborn must reject the gospel. Therefore, God sent Isaiah to Israel with a strange directive: “Go, and say to this people, ‘Listen carefully, but do not understand. Watch closely but learn nothing.’ Harden the hearts of these people. Plug their ears and shut their eyes. That way, they will not see with their eyes, nor hear with their ears, nor understand with their hearts and turn to me for healing.” (Isaiah 6:9-10).

Thus, when Jesus went to His hometown of Nazareth, He was rejected. “He came to His own, and His own did not receive Him.” (John 1:11). “He could do no mighty work there, except that He laid His hands on a few sick people and healed them. And He marvelled because of their unbelief.” (Mark 6:5-6).

Jesus said to His disciples when He sent them to preach the gospel: “Do not go into the way of the Gentiles, and do not enter a city of the Samaritans. But go rather to the lost sheep of the house of Israel.” (Matthew 10:5-6). 

Because the Jews are God’s firstborn, the gospel must be preached to them first. They would then reject it and became last. Thereafter, the gospel would be preached to the Gentiles, who would receive it. So doing, the Gentiles, who were last, would replace the Jews and become first. 

First became last

For this reason. Jesus points out that: “Many widows were in Israel in the days of Elijah, when the heaven was shut up three years and six months, and there was a great famine throughout all the land; but to none of them was Elijah sent except to Zarephath, in the region of Sidon, to a woman who was a widow. And many lepers were in Israel in the time of Elisha the prophet, and none of them was cleansed except Naaman the Syrian.” (Luke 4:25-27). 

Therefore, he observed that: “The stone which the builders rejected has become the chief cornerstone. This was the LORD’s doing, and it is marvellous in our eyes. Therefore, I say to you, the kingdom of God will be taken from you and given to a nation bearing the fruits of it.” (Matthew 21:42-43). 

Last became first

Jesus was unimpressed with the faith of Jews. He said to them: “Unless you people see signs and wonders, you will by no means believe.” (John 4:48).However, the Samaritans believed in Jesus without him having to perform any miracles whatsoever. (John 4:39-42). When He healed ten men of leprosy, the only one who came back to give thanks was a Samaritan. 

When Jesus found “great faith,” it was not among Jews but among the Gentiles. He said to a Canaanite woman who adamantly sought healing for her daughter despite Jesus’ feigned reluctance: “O woman, great is your faith!” (Matthew 15:28). He also commended the faith of a Roman centurion who recognised that He did not have to go physically to the sick to heal them but could decree healing from anywhere. 

The centurion said to Jesus: “Only speak a word, and my servant will be healed.” (Matthew 8:8). Jesus replied: “I have not found such great faith, not even in Israel!” (Matthew 8:10).

Following this pattern, Jesus only revealed himself as Messiah to two people in the scriptures, and they were both “outsiders.”  The one was a woman by Jacob’s well.  She was a Samaritan and, therefore. was last.  But by giving her a privileged revelation of Himself, Jesus made her first. (John 4:25-26). 

The other was a man he healed of blindness. Although that man was a Jew, Jesus only revealed Himself to him after he had been excommunicated from the synagogue. (John 9:35-38). This made him last, thereby positioning him for promotion in Christ. 

He became first through his commitment to Christ his healer, even in the face of religious persecution.

Grace in action

With Jesus, the worst sinners received the warmest welcome, while the most scrupulous law-abiders received the greatest castigation. (Matthew 23:13-36).

Jesus dined and consorted with sinners. He appointed a thief, Judas, as His treasurer. He invited another thief on the cross to be with Him in paradise. He called Matthew, a despised tax collector, to be one of His disciples. He befriended prostitutes and women of easy virtue, insisting they would enter the kingdom of God before the religious leaders. (Matthew 21:31).

This shows that in the kingdom of God, the way up is down. The only way the first in the world can be first in the kingdom is if the first in the world becomes last in the world. Then from last, it can become first in the kingdom. 

Going by these same kingdom dynamics, Christians who are now first will become last. Unbelievers, who are now last, will become first. God says prophetically: “It shall come to pass in the place where it was said to them, ‘you are not My people,’ there it shall be said to them, ‘you are sons of the living God.” (Hosea 1:10).

This is Jesus’ warning to entitled firsts: “Many will come from east and west, and sit down with Abraham, Isaac, and Jacob in the kingdom of heaven.  But the sons of the kingdom will be cast out into outer darkness. There will be weeping and gnashing of teeth.” (Matthew 8:11-12).

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While some measures of physical fitness such as athletic ability and one's strength or stamina may be difficult to ascertain right away, others are more obvious. One's resting heart rate, for instance, is easy to check and says a lot about a person's wellbeing. "Your heart rate is one of the first signs that gives your doctor insight into your overall health," says Doris Chan, DO, a cardiologist at NYU Langone Hospital in Brooklyn. "It guides us in the right direction when, and if, further testing is necessary." 

Despite the importance of resting heart rates, some people don't understand what they mean or why they fluctuate. Knowing yours can be a helpful way to identify potential health problems and gauge how healthy your heart really is. 

What is a resting heart rate? 

One's resting heart rate, or pulse, is simply the number of times the heart beats per minute while in a rested state. It's a measurement that should be taken in the absence of a stressful or exciting event and at least an hour after exercise. The American Heart Association says its best to check one's resting heart rate first thing in the morning and while still in bed to get the most accurate reading. 

Elevated heart rates can be an indication of "stress, anxiety, dehydration, health conditions or physical excursion," says Barbara Olendzki, RD, MPH, LDN, associate professor of population & quantitative health sciences at UMass Chan Medical School, though she says "its normal to have a heart rate increase from exercise." 

Other conditions can affect one's blood volume and heart rate. For example, any loss of blood "will result in a loss of blood pressure and will cause the heart rate to increase for a time to compensate," explains Viet Le, PA-C, associate professor of preventive cardiology and physician associate at Intermountain Health. Caffeine consumption, illness, medications, and electrolyte abnormalities may also temporarily impact one's resting heart rate. 

What is a healthy resting heart rate?

A commonly accepted range for a healthy resting heart rate is between 60 and 100 beats per minute, "though some argue that the resting heart rate lower limit be shifted down to 50 beats per minute," says Chan. That's because generally, the lower one's pulse is − to a point anyway, the more efficient their heart is thought to be working. Indeed, athletes frequently aim to get their heart rates down with some high endurance athletesstriving to reach a resting heart rate in the 40s.

Still, it's important to note that there are numerous exceptions to the 60-100 beats-per-minute rule and a "normal" pulse varies from person to person. As noted before, numerous external factors can temporarily affect one's resting heart rate, but some outside influences may affect one's heart rate for much longer. For example, an overactive thyroid, anemia, rare adrenal tumors, unhealthy organs, pregnancy, abnormal heart rhythms and one's age can affect resting heart rate for extended periods of time. "We expect a slightly higher heart rate in children," Le explains. Babies 12 to 24 months, for instance, "have a resting heart rate in the low 100s to mid 110s," he says, and teens commonly "have resting heart rates in the 60-90 range." 

How to check your heart rate

Checking one's heart rate is simple. Per the Mayo Clinic, simply place your index and third fingers on your neck, to the side of your windpipe, then count the number of beats from the first time you feel your pulse, continuing for 15 seconds. Multiply that number by four to calculate your beats per minute. To check your pulse at your wrist, place two fingers between the bone and the tendon over your radial artery, which is located on the thumb side of your wrist, then count the number of beats the same way.

What is an unsafe resting heart rate?

A resting heart rate below 60 is called bradycardia or slow heart rate, and one over 100 is called tachycardia, or fast heart rate. Staying too low or too high for extended periods of time without a known cause is worth looking into. "One should seek out professional attention if high heart rates are prolonged and persistent as it may cause symptoms of palpitations,skipped beats, shortness of breath, fainting or lightheadedness, excessive fatigue, or chest tightness or pressure," advises Le. 

A consultation can also help identify or rule out pre-existing conditions or other external factors that may be affecting one's pulse and lead to helpful recommendations for improving heart health. "It's important for you to learn your own body and how it responds," says Olendzki, "so ask your doctor what a healthy heart rate means for you." 

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