WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Russian forces in retreat near Bakhmut, Ukraine and Wagner say

The Ukrainian military and Russia's Wagner private army both reported further Russian retreats around the city of Bakhmut on Thursday, as Kyiv pressed on with its biggest advance for six months ahead of a planned counteroffensive.

Ukrainian troops near the front line said Russia was bombarding access roads to slow the Ukrainian assault, which has shifted momentum after months of slow Russian gains in Europe's deadliest ground combat since World War Two.

"Now, for the most part, as we have started to advance, they are shelling all the routes to front positions, so our armoured vehicles can't deliver more infantry, ammunition and other things," said Petro Podaru, commander of a Ukrainian artillery unit.

Ukraine's military said troops had advanced in places by more than a mile. Its forces had been on the defensive for half a year, weathering a huge offensive by Moscow that saw only slow gains.

"Despite the fact that our units do not have an advantage in equipment ... and personnel, they have continued to advance on the flanks, and covered a distance of 150 to 1,700 metres (1.1 miles)," military spokesperson Serhiy Cherevatyi said in televised comments.

Ukraine's gains have been accompanied by a deepening public split within Russia's forces between Wagner, which has led the Bakhmut campaign, and the regular Russian military.

The blasted ruins of Bakhmut, described by both sides as a "meat grinder", would be Moscow's only prize for its huge winter offensive that failed elsewhere along the front.

Kyiv says it has launched local advances around Bakhmut as a prelude to an upcoming big counteroffensive that it hopes will turn the tide against Russia's 15-month-old invasion.

Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin says his forces inside Bakhmut itself are still advancing, on the cusp of pushing Ukrainian troops out of their last foothold in the built-up area on the city's western outskirts.

But he accuses commanders of Russia's regular forces of abandoning ground north and south of the city, raising the risk of troops inside being encircled.

"Unfortunately, units of the Russian Defence Ministry have withdrawn up to 570 metres (1,880 feet) to the north of Bakhmut, exposing our flanks," Prigozhin said in his latest voice message on Thursday.

"I am appealing to the top leadership of the Ministry of Defence - publicly - because my letters are not being read," Prigozhin said, addressing Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov.

"Please do not give up the flanks."

The Russian defence ministry has acknowledged some withdrawals from positions near Bakhmut over the past week but denies Prigozhin's assertions that flanks are crumbling, or that it has withheld ammunition from Wagner.

FALLING INTO 'THE MOUSETRAP'

Ukrainian Deputy Defence Minister Hanna Maliar said Russia had pushed reservesinto Bakhmut and battles had raged in its northern and southern suburbs all day. But the Russians had been repelled and her forces had advanced, by her estimate by about a kilometre in some areas.

"We are buying time for certain planned actions," Maliar said on her Telegram channel. Reuters could not confirm her account.

Kyiv says its tactic around Bakhmut is to draw Russian forces into the city, so as to weaken Russia's front line defences elsewhere ahead of Kyiv's planned counterassault.

"Wagner troops climbed into Bakhmut like rats into a mousetrap," Oleksander Syrskyi, commander of Ukraine's ground forces, told troops at the Bakhmut front in video he released this week on social media.

"Using the principle of active defence, we resort to counteroffensive actions in some directions near Bakhmut. The enemy has more resources, but we are destroying his plans."

With Kyiv's counteroffensive looming, Russia has resumed missile and drone strikes across Ukraine this month after a near two-month lull. Waves of attacks now come several times a week, the most intense pace of the war.

On Thursday, air raid sirens sounded overnight, black smoke filled the sky over Kyiv and one person was reported killed in the southern city of Odesa. Ukraine said it shot down 29 of 30 incoming missiles. Moscow claimed to have hit military targets.

Russia has also been experiencing attacks and explosions both in Ukrainian territory it controls and in Russian territory near the border. Officials in Russian-occupied Crimea reported a freight train had been derailed overnight by "interference". Kyiv never confirms any role in incidents there.

On the diplomatic front, leaders of the G7 group of big developed countries were meeting in Japan where they are expected to unveil tighter measures to close off Russia's opportunities to bypass financial sanctions.

U.S. President Joe Biden and Japan's Fumio Kishida met for talks in Hiroshima, aiming for closer cooperation in the face of both an unpredictable Russia and ascendant China.

A U.S. Senate aide and a defence official said on Thursday the Pentagon had overvalued U.S. equipment it sent to Ukraine by around $3 billion, an error that opens up the possibility of more weapons being sent to Kyiv.

On Wednesday, Moscow agreed to a two-month extension of a deal safeguarding exports of Ukrainian grain from Black Sea ports despite the war. Russia had threatened to abandon the deal unless it received additional guarantees protecting its own grain and fertiliser exports.

However, a Ukrainian official said the corridor had not yet resumed, while Russia said more progress was needed to advance its interests.

 

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

Ukraine has ‘five months left’ to impress US – FT

Ukraine has five months to demonstrate some “advances” to the US and other Western backers, to convince them of its plans for the conflict with Russia, the Financial Times reported on Thursday, citing several European and American officials.

Washington is entering an election cycle and has to show that the massive military support the US and its allies have been providing to Ukraine has not been in vain, the paper also said.

“It is important for America to sell this war as a successful one, as well as for domestic purposes to prove that all of those aid packages have been successful in terms of Ukrainian advances,” a European official told the FT.

The polls show that public support for Ukraine is waning in the US, and President Biden’s administration has to show that the tens of billions of dollars it spent on assistance for Kiev made a major difference on the frontlines, the media outlet said.

According to FT sources, Washington believes the next five months are critical to the outcome of the conflict. “If we get to September and Ukraine has not made significant gains, then the international pressure on [the West] to bring them to negotiations will be enormous,” another source told the FT, on condition of anonymity.

September will see the UN General Assembly and G20 leaders’ summit take place one after another. Both events could be used to make the warring parties sit down at a negotiating table, FT said.

Western military support for Kiev is also about to reach its limits, the sources warned. “The message [to Kiev] is basically that this is the best you’re going to get,” a European official told the paper. “There’s no more flexibility in the US budget to keep writing checks, and European arms factories are running at full capacity.”

The US continues to be Ukraine’s biggest backer when it comes to arms supplies. Washington’s allies are concerned about its capacity to maintain that support and expect it to decrease in 2024 amid a US presidential election. “We can’t keep the same level of assistance forever,” a European official said, adding that the current level of support might be sustained for a year or two but no longer.

** US wants to ‘freeze’ Ukraine conflict – Politico

The administration of US President Joe Biden is reportedly considering ‘freezing’ the conflict in Ukraine for the foreseeable future, instead of pushing for the country’s victory, according to sources cited by Politico on Thursday.

Three serving and one former US official told the outlet that a long-term low-intensity stand-off was currently being discussed in the White House.

The former official compared the possible scenario to how the Korean War of the early 1950s ended in an armistice. There was no formal peace agreement, with both Pyongyang and Seoul claim sovereignty over the entire Korean Peninsula and a demilitarized zone separating the two parts.

“A Korea-style stoppage is certainly something that’s been discussed by experts and analysts in and out of government,” the source said. “It’s plausible, because neither side would need to recognize any new borders and the only thing that would have to be agreed is to stop shooting along a set line.”

The benefits for the US would be that a frozen conflict would be less costly for Western nations and draw less public attention, and consequently less pressure to assist Kiev, the outlet explained.

Ukraine would still be allied with Washington and continue switching its military to NATO standards, as it seeks to join the bloc someday.

The ‘Korean scenario’ for Ukraine drew media attention in January, after Aleksey Danilov, the secretary of the country’s national security council, claimed in an interview that Moscow had sent a top official to European capitals to promote it.

The Kremlin denied the reports and claimed Danilov may have mistaken a Ukrainian politician surnamed Kazak for his namesake in the Russian government, whom he identified as the messenger.

Dmitry Medvedev, the deputy chair of the Russian Security Council, argued that Danilov’s words were meant for “domestic consumption,” so that the Ukrainian government could measure the public reaction to it. The Russian official mused that “being split is the best-case scenario,” for Kiev, under the circumstances.

Moscow called NATO’s expansion in Europe and its creeping takeover of Ukraine without its formal accession as one of the key reasons for sending troops against its neighbor. The conflict, Russia has maintained, is part of a US proxy war against it, in which Ukrainians serve as cannon fodder.

** Russian forces wipe out Ukrainian arms, ammo depots with precision weapons

Russian forces hit Kiev’s large foreign equipment and armament depots and army reserves with seaborne and air-launched precision weapons, destroying substantial weapon and ammunition stockpiles during the special military operation in Ukraine, Defense Ministry Spokesman Lieutenant-General Igor Konashenkov reported on Thursday.

"Last night, Russian forces delivered multiple strikes by seaborne and air-launched long-range high-precision weapons against large foreign armament and equipment depots and enemy reserves. The goal of the strikes was achieved. All the designated targets were hit. The strikes destroyed considerable stockpiles of the Ukrainian army’s armaments and ammunition and thwarted the advance of reserves to the areas of combat operations," the spokesman said.

Russian forces eliminate 60 Ukrainian troops in Kupyansk area

Russian forces destroyed roughly 60 Ukrainian troops, two armored vehicles and a howitzer in the Kupyansk area over the past day, Konashenkov reported.

Combat aircraft and artillery from Russia’s western battlegroup struck the enemy units in areas near the settlements of Novomlynsk and Kotlyarovka in the Kharkov Region, the spokesman specified.

"The enemy’s losses in that direction in the past 24 hours totaled 60 Ukrainian personnel, two armored combat vehicles, two motor vehicles and a D-20 howitzer," the general reported.

Units of the Russian army’s 138th and 27th motorized infantry brigades neutralized two enemy subversive/reconnaissance groups by their active operations, the spokesman added.

Russian forces destroy over 75 Ukrainian troops in Krasny Liman area

Russian combat aircraft and artillery struck Ukrainian army units in the Krasny Liman area, destroying over 75 enemy troops in the past day, Konashenkov reported.

"In the Krasny Liman direction, operational/tactical and army aviation and artillery from the battlegroup Center inflicted damage on the Ukrainian army’s personnel and equipment in areas near the settlements of Ploshchanka and Kuzmino in the Lugansk People’s Republic," the spokesman said.

In all, "over 75 Ukrainian personnel, a tank, four armored combat vehicles, two pickup trucks and a D-30 howitzer were destroyed" in that direction in the past 24 hours, the general reported.

Russian forces eliminate two Ukrainian subversive groups in LPR

Russian forces eliminated two Ukrainian subversive groups in the Lugansk People’s Republic (LPR) over the past day, Konashenkov reported.

"Units of the 98th air assault division eliminated two subversive/reconnaissance groups near the settlement of Chervonaya Dibrova in the Lugansk People’s Republic," the spokesman said.

Russian forces destroy 200 Ukrainian troops, mercenaries in Donetsk area

Russian forces destroyed roughly 200 Ukrainian troops and foreign mercenaries in the Donetsk area over the past day, Konashenkov reported.

"The enemy’s losses in that direction amounted to 200 Ukrainian personnel and mercenaries, a tank, three armored combat vehicles, five motor vehicles and two Gvozdika motorized artillery systems," the spokesman said.

Russian assault teams continue battles for Artyomovsk

Russian assault teams continued battles for Artyomovsk in the Donetsk area with the paratroopers’ support over the past day, Konashenkov reported.

"In the Donetsk direction, the assault teams continued the battles for the liberation of Artyomovsk with the active support of Airborne Force units. Operational/tactical and army aviation and artillery from the southern battlegroup struck the enemy manpower and equipment in areas near the settlements of Chasov Yar and Bogdanovka in the Donetsk People’s Republic," the spokesman said.

During the last 24-hour period, aircraft flew seven sorties in that area. The battlegroup’s artillery accomplished 72 firing objectives, the general specified.

Kiev suffers 150 casualties in southern Donetsk, Zaporozhye areas

Russian forces killed and wounded roughly 150 Ukrainian troops and destroyed two enemy artillery guns in the southern Donetsk and Zaporozhye areas over the past day, Konashenkov reported.

Aircraft and artillery of Russia’s battlegroup East struck the Ukrainian army units near Ugledar in the Donetsk People’s Republic, the spokesman specified.

"The enemy’s losses amounted to 150 Ukrainian personnel killed and wounded, five motor vehicles, a Strela-10 anti-aircraft missile launcher, an FH70 howitzer and a US-made M777 artillery system," the general reported.

Russian forces destroy 35 Ukrainian troops in Kherson area

Russian forces destroyed roughly 35 Ukrainian troops and an armored vehicle in the Kherson area over the past day, Konashenkov reported.

"Over 35 Ukrainian personnel, an armored combat vehicle and three motor vehicles were destroyed in the Kherson direction in the past 24 hours as a result of damage inflicted by firepower," the spokesman reported.

Russian combat aircraft down Ukrainian Su-24 frontline bomber in DPR

Russian combat aircraft shot down a Ukrainian Su-24 frontline bomber near Slavyansk in the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) over the past day, Konashenkov reported.

"Fighter aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces shot down a Ukrainian Air Force Su-24 plane near the settlement of Slavyansk in the Donetsk People’s Republic," the spokesman said.

Russian air defenses down Mi-8 helicopter in Ukraine operation

Russian air defense forces shot down a Ukrainian Mi-8 helicopter, intercepted four HIMARS and Uragan rockets and destroyed 11 enemy drones over the past day, Konashenkov reported.

"Air defense capabilities shot down a Ukrainian Air Force Mi-8 helicopter near the settlement of Novopavlovka in the Zaporozhye Region. During the last 24-hour period, they intercepted four rockets of the HIMARS and Uragan multiple launch rocket systems," the spokesman said.

In addition, Russian air defense systems destroyed 11 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles in areas near the settlements of Pologi and Romanovskoye in the Zaporozhye Region, Gorlovka, Peski, Blagodatnoye and Volodino in the Donetsk People’s Republic, Nikolayevka, Novovodyanoye and Kremennaya in the Lugansk People’s Republic, the general specified.

Russian forces strike 68 Ukrainian artillery units in past day

Russian combat aircraft struck 68 Ukrainian artillery units at firing positions and destroyed a US-made counter-battery radar over the past day, Konashenkov reported.

"During the last 24-hour period, operational/tactical and army aviation and artillery of the Russian group of forces struck 68 Ukrainian artillery units at firing positions, manpower and military hardware in 97 areas," the spokesman said.

"In the area of the settlement of Krivaya Luka in the Donetsk People’s Republic, an AN/TPQ-37 counter-battery radar was obliterated," the general reported.

In all, the Russian Armed Forces have destroyed 428 Ukrainian combat aircraft, 234 helicopters, 4,208 unmanned aerial vehicles, 423 surface-to-air missile systems, 9,218 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 1,100 multiple rocket launchers, 4,843 field artillery guns and mortars and 10,284 special military motor vehicles since the beginning of the special military operation in Ukraine, Konashenkov reported.

 

Reuters/RT/Tass

Witnesses recount gunmen's raid on church in Sudan's capital

Over four terrifying hours last weekend, masked gunmen affiliated to one of Sudan's warring factions raided one of Khartoum's oldest churches, opening fire at church officials as they searched for cash, gold and women, two witnesses said.

The raid was one of many targeting homes, factories, banks and places of worship that residents have often blamed on the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which have been battling the army across greater Khartoum over the past month.

RSF fighters have spread out through many residential areas as the army has targeted them with air strikes and heavy artillery. Police have disappeared from the streets, leaving locals at the mercy of armed fighters and gangs.

The RSF, which denied responsibility for the raid on the Mar Girgis (St. George) Coptic church, has said in statements its troops are working to protect civilians, and that those committing abuses are criminals who have stolen RSF uniforms.

The attack at the church in the Masalma neighbourhood of Omdurman, across the Nile from Khartoum, began shortly before midnight on May 13.

The witnesses described the attackers as in their late 20s, with at least one non-Arabic speaker. They wore scarves across their faces leaving only their eyes uncovered, and mismatched clothing including some items of RSF uniform, the witnesses told Reuters by phone.

The gunmen sprayed bullets at a priest, nuns, and sextons, wounding five of them, said the two witnesses, who asked not to be named for fear of reprisals.

"They shouted, 'Where is the gold? Where is the money? Where are the dollars?'" one witness said. They also insulted the church leaders and workers saying, "You are Egyptians, sons of dogs", calling them infidels, and telling them to convert to Islam.

Just over 5% of Sudan's 46 million population is estimated to be Christian, split into 36 denominations, according to data from the Pew Research Centre and the Sudan Council of Churches.

Sudan's Coptic church is part of the Egyptian Coptic church headquartered in Cairo.

PRIEST THREATENED WITH DAGGER

During the attack, the assailants led the priest to his house at gunpoint and menaced him with a dagger, before seizing a safe that held gold and cash and stealing a car, the witnesses said.

They also vandalised the church offices and a sanctuary for Bishop Sarabamon, the top Coptic Church leader in Sudan, who was present during the attack and beaten with a chair and sticks but not recognised by the gunmen.

The church had an annex with elders and orphan girls, some of whom were hidden as the attack was unfolding.

The warring parties blamed each other for the attack. The army accused the RSF, while the RSF said in a statement that an "extremist" group affiliated with the army was responsible.

On Tuesday an Anglican church in Al Amarat district in Khartoum, which has seen heavy fighting, said it had been raided and "occupied" by RSF forces who stole a car and broke the doors of the church offices.

"We don't know what happened to the rest of the church's possessions," Ezekiel Kondo, archbishop of the Episcopal Anglican Church of Sudan, said in a statement on Facebook.

RSF fighters have also entered the Coptic church of the Virgin Mary in Khartoum, forcing staff to leave, according to a church employee familiar with the incident and social media posts by activists.

The RSF did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the Anglican and Virgin Mary churches.

On Thursday, the same gunmen who attacked Mar Girgis returned to raid the apartments used by its priests, according to one of the witnesses who shared photos showing smashed doors, a broken safe, and scattered clothes and personal belongings.

Despite the repeated raids, the witness said he believed what happened was due to the general turmoil engulfing Sudan, not driven by sectarianism.

"I don't believe they are targeting the Christians as much as it's all chaos, chaos, chaos," he said. "They stormed houses of the Muslims as well. They are looting and stealing."

 

Reuters

Two presidents in the last 24 years provide interesting examples of how to relate with the National Assembly. And between the two, the President-elect, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, can decide how to model his relationship with the 10th National Assembly.

The first example is President Olusegun Obasanjo. He was not only head of the executive branch, he was leader of his party, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), and the de facto head of its Board of Trustees. But it didn’t end there. Obasanjo was also, in a manner of speaking, head of the legislature. 

That may sound like a misnomer in a presidential system of government. But that misnomer was the norm. Among his lesser misdemeanours, Obasanjo orchestrated the removal of three Senate presidents in four years and used five in his eight-year tenure. 

In the famous case of the rather fiercely independent Chuba Okadigbo in 2000, for example, the former president executed his removal, in typical Tom-and-Jerry fashion, by literally swallowing Okadigbo whole the day after he ate a meal of pounded yam at the opening of the new Abuja home of the former Senate president.

Whether it was the Senate or the House of Representatives, Obasanjo kept real or potential adversaries on a leash by lining their path with banana peels, the euphemism for a web of corrupt enticements which they often overcame by yielding to.

A decade and a half after he left office as president, the hallways of the National Assembly still echo with the voices of Obasanjo’s fallen political adversaries. A number of them retaliated by pocketing bribes and still denying the former president his third term ambition.

The second example, President Muhammadu Buhari, is on the other extreme of Executive-Legislature relationship. As soon as he assumed office, Buhari barricaded himself in the Villa. He assured those who had worked for his electoral success that he was for everyone and for no one, leaving them feeling duped.

The consequence of his curious ambivalence was a National Assembly where the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) got in bed with the defeated PDP and became both the ruling party and the opposition party at the same time. 

The question of which option worked better is hardly meaningful without considering the context of each dispensation. The dominant party in the Obasanjo years was the PDP, which controlled 21 states in the first four years, with 59 of 109 seats in the Senate and 206 of 360 in the House of Representatives, closely followed by the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) and the Alliance for Democracy (AD).

Also, after decades of military rule, the system was still evolving and largely in its experimental phase. Politicians were relatively new and inexperienced. There was no liaison between the executive and legislative arms. Obasanjo, a former military head of state with a pretty long list of enemies after his imprisonment, could not resist the temptation of behaving like a petty village headmaster. 

A desire to avenge and vindicate himself believing that it was his patriotic duty to do so, made him wield powers for which he would be bitterly criticised as lacking in democratic temperament. 

But Obasanjo being Obasanjo, he did not mind imitating a low-grade version of Otto von Bismarck’s philosophy, that the business of Nigeria’s redemption at the time – restructuring, corruption and a pariah economy – required bloody noses and a hand of iron.

By the time Buhari was elected eight years later, the landscape had changed somewhat. Yet, Buhari’s hands-off approach was dictated just as much by the relatively mature political landscape as by his complicatedly insular, almost abdicatory political style.  

Tinubu is a different matter altogether. A former senator and state governor, he would be the only president in four since 1999 that combines legislative and executive experiences. His deputy, Kashim Shettima, also has the same credentials, as does party chairman Abdullahi Adamu. 

On paper, therefore, a decision about how to define the incoming government’s relationship with the legislature shouldn’t be too difficult. But as we have seen in the last few weeks, it is easier said than done. 

The conflicting statements between Shettima on the one hand, and Governor Rotimi Akeredolu of Ondo, along with Adamu and the rank-and-file on the other, show that the ruling party is split right down the middle on how to fill the positions of presiding officers.

The highly fragmented composition of the legislature which does not give the ruling party a comfortable majority, feeding off the bitterly contested elections, has put Tinubu in a tight spot. But an even bigger headache for him is that the problem is being fomented from close quarters inside his own party.

Both arms of the National Assembly – the Senate and House of Representatives – are engulfed in the leadership crisis, but the lower house is in the eye of the storm. The real battle is not only being fought here, it’s here, also, that the trade-offs could be made.

Tinubu confidant and outgoing Speaker, Femi Gbajabiamila, does not want his deputy, Idris Wase, to succeed him. On the other side is another Tinubu confidant and three-time Rep, Abiodun James Faleke, who is not only pro-Wase but also locked in a battle with Gbajabiamila to become chief of staff.

The pro-Wase group, which also includes Akeredolu, argue that it is unfair and unjust to give nothing to the Northcentral, which accounted for the third largest block vote, while handing the Northwest two presiding posts in the National Assembly.

If the current arrangement stands – and it’s improbable – then it would be the first time in 24 years when one zone would have two presiding officers. Aminu Waziri Tambuwal defied his party to emerge Speaker in 2011, upsetting the PDP’s zoning arrangement.

In the wider zoning of party offices, the same tardiness dogged the APC with the current Speaker, and the Vice President Yemi Osinbajo, coming from the same zone. Yet, neither VP Namadi Sambo (who is from the same zone with Tambuwal) nor Osinbajo (from the same zone as Gbajabiamila) was a presiding officer of the National Assembly.

It’s a danger that a party which has barely recovered from the Muslim-Muslim ticket controversy can barely afford: the prospects of two presiding officers from the same zone sitting over a joint session of the National Assembly.

But who will bell the cat? Party chairman Adamu is in a weak position, further weakened by his love of his own position. His cautious response that his party didn’t consult widely enough before the NWC’s announcement was a token of self-preservation. He spoke through zipped lips.

The truth, which he lacked the courage to say, regardless of the fact that he is also from the Northcentral, was that the lopsidedness was ill-advised and ought to be reviewed. Saying it as it is might have once again brought him in the firing line of Northwest hawks in his party who want him removed. But after a successful election, what else does he have to lose?

The Northwest which played a significant role in the emergence of a Southern presidential candidate in the APC because it was the fair and right thing to do, cannot hold the same party at gunpoint for a reward that is both unfair and wrong. 

It doesn’t make sense and certainly can’t be on the basis that it gave the president-elect the highest vote, when the region has remained the country’s largest vote bank in the last six major electoral cycles, irrespective of who was elected president. With seven states, unlike other zones with an average of six states each, the Northwest enjoys numerical advantage. 

It does seem like after overcoming multiple and multi-faceted ambushes to emerge president-elect, the trap by members of Tinubu’s inner circle – often the most problematic – may yet again require careful and considered attention. As it was with Obasanjo and Buhari, how he handles this moment could significantly define his years in office.

** Ishiekwene is Editor-In-Chief of LEADERSHIP

There are plenty of frameworks you can use to make better decisions. Jeff Bezosuses the two-way door rule to identify reversible decisions and embrace a bias towards action.

Southwest Airlines founder Herb Kelleher used the one-question rule to add clarity the decision-making process.

Science can also help you make better decisions. You can leverage your circadian rhythm. You can the power of experience-based intuition.  You can even sleep on a decision (as long as you get a good night's sleep.)

Problem is, most frameworks won't necessarily help you make good decisions when your willpower reserves run low. When temptation trumps determination.  When your emotions work against you, not for you and you struggle to stay whatever course you've chosen. 

See two employees arguing at the end of a long day and it's tempting to ease past and hope the problem goes away.

Walk out of your third meeting in a row to find a note about a customer complaint and it's tempting to save that call for tomorrow. Hear your alarm go off at 6 a.m. and it's tempting to hit snooze and skip your morning workout.

When you aren't at your best, whether mentally or emotionally or physically, immediacy typically wins.

Unless you apply Suzy Welch's 10-10-10 Rule.

The 10-10-10 Rule

The framework is simple: before you make a decision, ask yourself three questions:

• 10 minutes from now, how will I feel about this decision?
• 10 months from now, how will I feel about this decision?
• 10 years from now, how will I feel about this decision?

It's easy to feel pretty good about a decision ten minutes from now, especially if instant gratification or conflict avoidance is involved.

Taking a longer-term perspective gets your "future self" involved: Your goals, your dreams, the kind of person you want to be and re-establishes – when you need it most – continuity between "today you" and 10 months and 10 years from now, you.

Research shows that re-establishing that perspective will instantly help you make better decisions.  One study shows that people with greater "present-future continuity" tend to exercise more.

Another study shows they tend to be more financially prudent and more likely to save money. Another shows they tend to behave more ethically, both personally and professionally.

In fact, this study shows the degree of continuity you feel with your future self can actually predict your overall life satisfaction and well-being 10 – yep, 10 – years later.

As the authors of the study write:

When people are better connected to their future selves, they have an enhanced ability to recognize the consequences of their present-day decisions on their future selves.

And that's going to help them put the brakes on these behaviors. 

The more connected you feel to your future self, the more likely you are to consider emotions you will feel later, not just now, like regret or guilt.

Take an interpersonal issue between two employees. Ten minutes from now, walking away will still feel good.

Ten months from now, when the bickering has escalated and spread to the people around them – as it always does – you'll wish you had dealt with the problem. Ten years from now, at least a few of your employees will still remember the example you didn't set... and will follow that example. How will that feel?

What you do today builds the foundation for what you will become. Who you will be in 10 months and in 10 years, is the result of every decision you make – and action you take – today.

Because consistency, not intensity, produces long-term results, the choices you make and actions you take will either work for or against the goals and dreams you have for future you. 

And how, someday, you will feel about yourself.

If you want your future self to be kinder, smarter, fitter, more successful, wealthier, more generous – whatever you hope your future self to be – apply the 10-10-10 rule to the choices you make.

Because who you will be 10 months from now and 10 years from now, starts with what you decide and do, today.

And every day from now on. 

 

Inc

The federal executive council (FEC) has approved the concessioning of the Nnamdi Azikiwe international Airport, Abuja, and the Mallam Aminu Kano international airport in Kano.

The council gave the approval on Wednesday at a meeting presided over by President Muhammadu Buhari.

Speaking to journalists at the end of the meeting, Hadi Sirika, minister of aviation, said the Abuja airport will be concessioned for 20 years while the international airport in Kano will be concessioned for 30 years.

Sirika also said the council approved the ministry’s change of name.

According to the minister, the name was changed from the ‘federal ministry of aviation’ to the ‘ministry of aviation and aerospace of Nigeria’.

“The council also approved the draft national civil aviation policy which is geared towards the strengthening of the civil aviation,” Sirika added. 

Last week, FEC approved N449.9 million for the engagement of consultants for the development of a master plan for 17 airports in Nigeria.

APPROVALS FOR PROCUREMENTS IN THE POWER SECTOR

Also speaking, Jerry Agba, minister of state for power, said the council approved two memos for the ministry. 

Agba said the first one being an approval for the award of contract for the procurement of 25 numbers of 33 KV circuit breakers and 120 numbers of surge arrestors for systems use for Transition Company of Nigeria (TCN). 

He said the contract value is in “the neighborhood of N140 million as argumentation for that”. 

“The contract has been awarded before they are ongoing, but we asked for approval for revaluation due to price escalation and additional works. We’re building new sub stations in one of the places,” he said. 

Agba added that the council also approved the variation due to price escalation on the construction of the Dukanbo Shonga 132 KV double circuit transmission line. 

“Shonga is in Kwara state and that line has been down for several years. So, with this procurement, we should be able to revemp the station and you know is an agro based area that’s the area which service the Bacita farm. 

“The shunga farms limited and the whole of that area has been in darkness for a long time. With this procurement we hope that in two months, we should have full power supply to those areas and  restore farming and processing activities in that area. The cost is N1.5 billion.”

 

The Cable

The presidential candidate of the Labour Party (LP), Peter Obi, has told the Presidential Election Petition Court in Abuja of his predicament in accessing electoral documents from the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).

Obi, who came third in the February presidential election, is challenging the victory of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and its candidate, Bola Tinubu.

He alleged that INEC manipulated the presidential election in favour of Tinubu.

At the resumed hearing of Mr Obi’s petition on Wednesday, his lawyer, Livy Uzoukwu, informed the five-member panel of the court led by Haruna Tsammani that INEC “stubbornly refused to produce 70 per cent of the electoral documents that were requested (by the LP).”

Specifically, Uzoukwu said electoral documents concerning the polls in Rivers and Sokoto States have been inaccessible from INEC.

For Sokoto State, Uzoukwu said INEC officials demanded N1.5 million fee to process the documents.

“A typical example is that of Rivers State, where (INEC) Resident Electoral Commissioner boldly told us they do not have any form EC8 to give us,” Uzoukwu said.

The lawyer recalled two previous rulings of the court, directing the electoral umpire to grant access to Labour Party for the inspection of electoral documents like the Bimodal Voters Accreditation System (BVAS) machines that were deployed for the conduct of the presidential poll.

The Court of Appeal had on March 3 and 8 directed INEC to make available certified true copies of result sheets and other data obtained from the BVAS machines to tender same to aid the petitioner’s case.

Uzoukwu further recalled that five separate letters were written to INEC chairman, Yakubu Mahmood, requesting that access be granted to inspect and obtain relevant electoral documents to strengthen the petitioner’s suit at the court.

INEC denies allegation

Abubakar Mahmoud, INEC’s lawyer, expressed the electoral umpire’s readiness to cooperate with all parties in the petitions and the court.

Mahmoud said Obi’s legal team declined to attend a meeting that was called to streamline issues around documents to be tendered before the court.

“We agreed to meet on Monday and Tuesday (15 and 16 May). But on Monday, 15 May, I received a call that the Labour Party legal team had not turned up at the venue for the inspection of the documents,” Mahmoud told the court.

He clarified that LP was given some electoral documents in Rivers, “but they insisted on collecting all the documents that were required.

“The commission has not refused to produce any document,” Mahmoud said.

But Uzoukwu said his team did not stage a walkout from the meeting.

Speaking in the same vein, APC’s lead lawyer, Lateef Fagbemi, aligned with INEC’s position concerning access to electoral documents.

Fagbemi said he would not object to official documents tendered from INEC during the hearing of the substantive petition.

“All public documents coming from INEC and duly certified will not be objected to, but other documents may be objected to with reasons given and arguments presented at the end of the day before judgement.

“We are ready and willing to cooperate with the court,” Fagbemi assured.

Similarly, Tinubu’s lawyer, Wole Olanipekun, said he had no issues accessing documents from the electoral umpire.

“We will reserve our objection to documents until the end of the trial,” Olanipekun said.

After listening to all parties in the petition, the court adjourned proceedings until 19 May.

The panel’s chairman, Tsammani, asked lawyers in the suit to respond to all pending applications before the next adjourned date.

Tsammani said the pre-hearing session would last 14 days from the day of its commencement.

The court began its pre-hearing session on 8 May.

 

PT

Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has asked the presidential election petition court (PEPC) to dismiss an application filed by the Labour Party (LP) and its presidential candidate, Peter Obi, seeking to have the proceeding televised.

Speaking with journalists after the tribunal pre-hearing session on Wednesday, Levy Ozoukwu, counsel to Obi and LP, said INEC opposed their application for a live broadcast.

“Surprisingly, INEC is objecting,” the senior lawyer said.

“A public institution that is being funded by the government and representing the people is saying they don’t want the people to enjoy live streaming. What are they hiding?

“INEC sees itself as a candidate in an election that it conducted. I say with every degree of emphasis going by the conduct of INEC.

“In court, no other party is complaining about not getting documents. Why is it so?”

“Only the petitioners who have not been provided with the required documents and I keep on asking, what is INEC hiding?”

Obi and the LP filed a petition challenging the victory of Bola Tinubu, candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), in the election.

In the petition marked CA/PEPC/03/2023, LP and Obi, said Tinubu “was not duly elected by the majority of the lawful votes cast at the time of the election”.

Amongst other allegations, they claimed that Kashim Shettima, vice-president-elect, had a double nomination in contravention of the electoral act.

The petitioners are asking the tribunal to declare Obi as the winner of the presidential poll or alternatively, order INEC to conduct a fresh election.

The tribunal has adjourned the matter to May 19 for continuation.

 

The Cable

Peoples Democratic Party and the Labour Party on Wednesday expressed anger over the telephone conversation between the United States Secretary of State, Antony Blinken and the President-elect, Bola Tinubu.

Blinken pledged stronger ties between the US and Nigeria during a 20-minute telephone call to Tinubu, who is in France.

The US Department of State spokesperson, Matthew Miller, in a statement said Blinken spoke with the president-elect on Tuesday.

The development came 24 hours after the Joe Biden administration announced the imposition of visa restrictions on Nigerians who allegedly disrupted the recently concluded elections.

The US said the affected persons were involved in voter threats, results manipulation, physical violence, and other activities that undermined democracy. The identities of the culprits were, however, not made public.

But dismayed by Blinken’s communication with Tinubu, PDP standard bearer, Atiku Abubakar, who is challenging the ex-Lagos State governor’s victory in court, said the Secretary of State’s assurances of bilateral cooperation contradicted the position of the US on the general election in Nigeria.

The former vice president was referring to a statement issued by the US government on March 2 in which it acknowledged the complaints and frustrations expressed by some Nigerians about the manner in which the presidential election was conducted and the shortcomings of the technical elements used in the poll.

Also, Chief Spokesman for Obi-Datti Presidential Campaign Council, Yunusa Tanko, said it was worrisome for Blinken to be discussing bilateral relations with Tinubu.

During the phone conversation, Blinken said he was committed to further strengthening the US-Nigeria partnership with the incoming administration of the president-elect.

Miller said the two leaders “discussed the importance of inclusive leadership that represents all Nigerians, continued comprehensive security cooperation, and reforms to support economic growth.”

The statement read, “Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken spoke this morning with Nigerian President-elect Bola Ahmed Tinubu to emphasise his continued commitment to further strengthening the U.S.-Nigeria relationship with the incoming administration.

“The Secretary noted that the U.S.-Nigeria partnership is built on shared interests and strong people-to-people ties and that those links should continue to strengthen under President-elect Tinubu’s tenure.

‘’Secretary Blinken and President-elect Tinubu discussed the importance of inclusive leadership that represents all Nigerians, continued comprehensive security cooperation, and reforms to support economic growth.”

Also, a statement from the Office of the President-elect, signed by Tunde Rahman, said Tinubu told Blinken that he would hit the ground running and unify the country on his assumption of office on May 29.

He further pledged to work to ensure continued positive relations with the US, adding that his immediate priorities would be to deliver institutional reforms and development programmes to deepen our democratic institutions and bring help to poor and vulnerable Nigerians.

But reacting to the US engagement with Tinubu on his verified Twitter handle @atiku, on Wednesday, the ex-vice president said he was in disbelief that the US top diplomat could give legitimacy to what he described as the sham election of February 25.

He tweeted, “I am in disbelief that Secretary Antony Blinken called Tinubu, a contradiction to the publicly stated position of the US on Nigeria’s 2023 presidential election.

‘’This is inconceivable considering that America, as the bastion of democracy, is well briefed on the sham election of February 25. To give legitimacy to the widely acknowledged fraudulent election in Nigeria can be demoralising to citizens who have hedged their bet on democracy and the sanctity of the ballot.’’

‘Call worrisome’

Faulting Blinken, Tanko said, “It is worrisome at this point to hear them discuss bilateral discussion at the point in which the issue of election is being challenged in the court of law.”

The spokesperson, however, stated that the discussion on the bilateral relationship should not be taken as an endorsement.

He said, “As we are concerned, we are aware that a statement was issued by those who have been part of the rigging machine in Nigeria’s electoral system. We don’t want to take issue with regard to any call being made to a government that is already seen to be illegal.

“We cannot gratify such statement as a kind of endorsement. We will rather call it a caution to see whether the judiciary will make do with what is already on their desk.”

But the All Progressives Congress saw the interaction between both Tinubu and Blinken as a welcome development.

Speaking with our correspondent, the Director of Publicity for the APC, Bala Ibrahim, said the majority of those criticising the US for its action needed some form of enlightenment on what ‘democracy’ and ‘bilateral relationship’ connote.

“I think these people (opposition) misunderstand the meaning of democracy. They should also learn the meaning of bilateral relationships. Once an election is conducted and there is a body that is charged with the responsibility of deciding or playing umpire in the election. If that body has made a pronouncement, it stands valid until it is vitiated by a court of competent jurisdiction.

“Nobody is saying people should not go to court to challenge an election outcome. But nobody should say the announcement by the electoral umpire is void simply because there are those who are challenging the outcome. The position of the law is that you are innocent until proven otherwise. And who alleged is burdened by proof. It is for him to prove the wrongdoing or the invalidity of the result.

“Now, while that is ongoing, it doesn’t mean countries should not have a bilateral relationship. Every country is a sovereign entity that cannot be challenged by individuals who have contested and lost elections. They should go and continue licking their wounds and allow the legal process to continue. Diplomacy and diplomatic relationship cannot be dictated by their own wishes. No, it doesn’t work like that.

“There is nothing wrong with Blinken calling the president-elect. It is actually in line. America is the bastion of democracy, the biggest democracy in the world and one country that has practised democracy longer than any country in the world knows the meaning of that better than any other democrat in the world. For Blinken to call and discuss with the president-elect, they know the implication and meaning. There is nothing undemocratic or bad about it.”

 

Punch