WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Ukraine says it has retaken territory near embattled eastern city of Bakhmut

Ukrainian military commanders said Friday that their troops had recaptured more territory from Russian forces at the scene of the war’s longest and bloodiest battle, for the eastern city of Bakhmut, but it wasn’t clear if this marked the start of Kyiv’s long-expected counteroffensive.

Russia’s Defense Ministry, meanwhile, said Ukrainian forces had stepped up attacks north of the region while denying speculation by Russian military bloggers that the Kyiv forces had achieved “defense breakthroughs.”

The 2 kilometers (1.2 miles) of territory that Ukrainian forces south of Bakhmut retook this week represented a significant gain and will protect an important supply chain, according to commanders of Ukraine’s 3rd Separate Assault Brigade, a special forces unit that led the attack.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he met with the top military commanders Friday, noting that Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi reported his forces “stopped the enemy and even pushed him back in some directions.”

In his nightly address to the Ukrainian people, Zelenskyy praised his troops and noted the low morale of the Russian forces.

“The occupiers are already mentally prepared for defeat. They have already lost this war in their minds,” he said. “We must push them every day so that their sense of defeat turns into their retreat, their mistakes, their losses.”

In a statement on Telegram on Friday, Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar confirmed that Ukrainian forces gained ground around Bakhmut, reiterating statements from military commanders earlier this week.

In Washington, White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said the U.S. has assessed that Bakhmut remains contested territory.

“Ukrainians have not given up their defense of Bakhmut and the Russians haven’t given up their attempts to take Bakhmut,” Kirby said. “Every single day, the lines change back and forth. I mean, sometimes block by block.”

The U.S. maintains that Bakhmut has limited strategic value but that Russia has absorbed an enormous loss of troops and weaponry in the battle for the former salt-mining town that has been grinding on for eight months.

Yevgeny Prigozhin, the millionaire owner of Russia’s private military contractor Wagner who is a frequent critic of the Russian military, slammed it again for losing ground around Bakhmut and exposing his forces battling for the city.

In a video statement Friday, Prigozhin mocked the Russian Defense Ministry’s report claiming that its forces regrouped to take more favorable positions, saying they effectively fled and “our flanks are crumbling.”

He warned that the Ukrainian forces have reclaimed key heights around the city and effectively unblocked the key supply link to Bakhmut. Prigozhin again accused the military leadership of refusing to provide sufficient ammunition to Wagner.

“You must immediately stop lying,” Prigozhin said, addressing Russia’s military leaders. “If you fled, you must prepare new defensive lines.”

Prigozhin — who seems to use harsh criticism to pressure the Kremlin for more support and improve his stature — alleged the Defense Ministry’s failure to protect Wagner’s flanks amounted to high treason and could result in a “great tragedy” for Russia.

Apparently denying Prigozhin’s claim of abandonment, Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov said Russian airborne units are still supporting ground forces to “stop the attempts of the Ukrainian armed forces to counterattack on the flanks.”

The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank, explained the spat as being “reflective of increased panic in the Russian information space over speculations about planned Ukrainian counteroffensives.” This indicates increased concern among leaders of Wagner and the Russian Defense Ministry as well as “reflecting Kremlin guidance to avoid downplaying Ukrainian successes,” it said.

Ukrainian military officials have dismissed speculation that the fighting and forward movement in Bakhmut signaled that its anticipated counteroffensive was underway. Zelenskyy said in remarks broadcast Thursday that Kyiv was delaying the campaign because it lacks enough Western weapons. Some saw the comments as designed to keep Russia guessing about Ukraine’s next move.

Addressing the nation Friday evening, Zelenskyy said more arms were coming “to defeat the aggressor and restore peace.”

The territorial gains occurred near the Siversky-Donets canal, between the villages of Ivanivske and Kurdiumivka, according to a commander of the 1st Assault Battalion of the 3rd Separate Assault Brigade. He spoke on condition he be referred to only by his call sign of “Rollo,” in line with Ukrainian military protocol.

“This was the enemy’s bridgehead, which they intended to use in their future attacks along the canal, in the direction of Kostiantynivka,” he said. “We had to neutralize the enemy and push them to the other side of the canal.”

Another commander and a military spokesman corroborated his account.

Kostiantynivka is part of an important logistics chain that leads to the city of Kramatorsk.

Rollo said the gains followed other successes, including one that secured an access road near Khromove, north of Bakhmut, and another that allowed Ukrainian forces to reclaim lost positions in the Industrial College inside Bakhmut city.

The assault south of Bakhmut was followed by a reported increase in Ukrainian offensive actions near the city of Soledar on Thursday, Russia’s Defense Ministry said. Russia repelled 26 Ukrainian attacks carried out by over 1,000 soldiers, the ministry said, adding that up to 40 tanks were involved.

The slow and grinding fight for Bakhmut has been costly for both sides, with Ukraine seeking to deny Russia any territorial gains despite its marginal strategic significance. Ukrainian forces are stationed in the city, while Russian troops are attacking from the north, east and south.

In other fighting, at least two people were killed and 22 injured elsewhere in the country since Thursday, according to figures from the Ukrainian President’s Office.

Donetsk Gov. Pavlo Kyrylenko said a Russian strike hit Kramatorsk, where some Ukrainian military units are based, destroying a school and residential building. Russian shelling hit 11 cities and villages in the region, killing 12 civilians, he said.

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

Zelensky ‘will end up like Hitler’ – ex-Russian president

Ukrainian leader Vladimir Zelensky could suffer the same fate as Nazi dictator Adolf Hitler, former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has claimed. The comments came in response to Zelensky’s suggestion that Kremlin officials would meet a “sad end.” 

“We do not know who will meet which end,” Medvedev wrote on Telegram, before comparing the Ukrainian president to Hitler, who committed suicide during the final stages of World War II as Soviet troops stormed Berlin.

The former Russian leader also accused Zelensky of “wishing death to everyone in the Kremlin.” 

His remarks came in response to an interview published by the BBC on Friday, in which Zelensky stated: “Believe me, those in the Kremlin… it will end badly for them.” 

The Ukrainian president expressed his desire for the rapid demise of the current Russian leadership, claiming that they “will certainly not die a natural death.” 

The interview with Zelensky comes less than two weeks after a drone attack on the Kremlin, which Moscow described as an assassination attempt against President Vladimir Putin and an act of terrorism. The Russian leader was not at the Kremlin at the time of the incident.

Russia accused Kiev of orchestrating the attack and said it reserves the right to respond as it sees fit. Ukraine denied any involvement in the incident, although the attack prompted Medvedev to call for the “physical removal” of Zelensky.

Kiev’s intelligence chief, Kirill Budanov, later vowed to “keep killing Russians anywhere” until Ukraine’s “complete victory.” The Kremlin branded the statement “truly heinous,” and said it was confirmation that Kiev was involved in orchestrating terrorist attacks.

** Kiev attempts 26 attacks in Soledar area, all of them repelled, Russian top brass reports

The Ukrainian military attempted over 20 attacks along the 95 km engagement line in the Soledar tactical area, with all the offensives repelled by Russian forces, Russia’s Defense Ministry Spokesman Lieutenant-General Igor Konashenkov reported on Friday.

"The Ukrainian army units attempted 26 attacks that involved over 1,000 personnel, up to 40 tanks and also other military and special equipment. All the attacks by the Ukrainian army were repelled. There were no breakthroughs of Russian defensive lines," the spokesman said.

Russian forces neutralize Ukrainian subversive group in Kupyansk area

Russian forces destroyed over 60 Ukrainian troops and neutralized an enemy subversive group in the Kupyansk area over the past day, Konashenkov reported.

"In the Kupyansk direction, aircraft and artillery from the western battlegroup struck the enemy units in areas near the settlements of Dvurechnoye in the Kharkov Region and Novosyolovskoye in the Lugansk People’s Republic. In addition, the activity of a subversive/reconnaissance group was thwarted near the settlement of Kotlyarovka in the Kharkov Region at night," the spokesman said.

The enemy’s losses in that area in the past 24 hours totaled "over 60 Ukrainian personnel, an armored combat vehicle, two motor vehicles, two Grad multiple rocket launchers, a US-made M109 Paladin artillery system and an Akatsiya motorized artillery gun," the general specified.

Russian forces destroy over 75 Ukrainian troops in Krasny Liman area

Russian forces destroyed over 75 Ukrainian troops and a motorized artillery gun in the Krasny Liman area over the past day, Konashenkov reported.

"In the Krasny Liman direction, operational/tactical and army aviation and artillery from the battlegroup Center struck Ukrainian manpower and equipment near the settlement of Torskoye in the Donetsk People’s Republic," the spokesman said.

The strikes eliminated over 75 Ukrainian troops, three armored combat vehicles, three pickup trucks, an Akatsiya motorized artillery gun and a D-20 howitzer in that area in the past 24 hours, the general specified.

Ukraine’s military suffers 900 casualties in Donetsk area in past day

Russian forces killed and wounded about 900 Ukrainian troops in the Donetsk area over the past day, Konashenkov reported.

"In all, the enemy’s losses in the Donetsk area amounted to about 900 Ukrainian troops killed and wounded, over 30 pieces of armor, and also seven motor vehicles, two D-30 howitzers and a UK-made L118 howitzer," the spokesman said.

Russian forces gain new positions in Donetsk area

Russian forces gained a new frontier in the Maloilyinovka area to take advantage of the Berkhovskoye reservoir as they continued their combat operations in the Donetsk People’s Republic over the past day, Konashenkov reported.

"In the Maloilyinovka direction, units of the southern battlegroup gained a frontier, considering the advantageous conditions of the Berkhovskoye reservoir to increase defense stability. The personnel of the 4th and 200th motorized infantry brigades, the crews of army aviation and other units of the Russian Armed Forces showed courage repelling enemy attacks," the spokesman said.

Over 540 Ukrainian troops, eight tanks and more than 20 pieces of other enemy armor were destroyed in the Maloilyinovka direction in the past 24 hours, the general reported.

Russian air defenses down Ukrainian Su-27 fighter jet in DPR

Russian air defense forces shot down a Ukrainian Su-27 fighter jet near the settlement of Chasov Yar in the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) over the past day, Konashenkov reported.

"Air defense capabilities shot down a Ukrainian Air Force Su-27 fighter in the area of the settlement of Chasov Yar in the Donetsk People’s Republic," the spokesman said.

In addition, Russian forces destroyed an artillery ammunition depot of the Ukrainian army’s 110th mechanized brigade, the general said.

Russian forces destroy 110 Ukrainian troops in southern Donetsk, Zaporozhye areas

Russian forces destroyed roughly 110 Ukrainian troops in the southern Donetsk and Zaporozhye areas over the past day, Konashenkov reported.

In the southern Donetsk and Zaporozhye directions, aircraft and artillery of Russia’s battlegroup East struck the enemy units in areas near the settlements of Vodyanoye and Ugledar in the Donetsk People’s Republic, the spokesman specified.

"The enemy’s losses totaled 110 Ukrainian personnel, a tank, two motor vehicles and a Gvozdika motorized artillery gun," the general specified.

Russian forces destroy 40 Ukrainian troops, artillery gun in Kherson area

Russian forces destroyed roughly 40 Ukrainian troops and a motorized artillery system in the Kherson area over the past day, Konashenkov reported.

"In the Kherson direction, as many as 40 Ukrainian personnel, an armored combat vehicle, three motor vehicles and an Akatsiya self-propelled artillery system were destroyed in the past 24 hours as a result of damage inflicted by firepower," the spokesman said.

Russian forces eliminate two Ukrainian subversive groups in LPR

Russian forces eliminated two Ukrainian subversive groups in the Lugansk People’s Republic (LPR) over the past day, Konashenkov reported.

"At night, two subversive/reconnaissance groups were eliminated in areas near the settlements of Chervonaya Dibrova and Kremennaya in the Lugansk People’s Republic," the spokesman said.

Russian forces wipe out Ukrainian army’s fuel depot near Zaporozhye city

Russian forces destroyed a fuel depot of the Ukrainian army near the city of Zaporozhye over the past day, Konashenkov reported.

"In the area of the city of Zaporozhye, a depot storing fuel for Ukrainian military hardware was destroyed. Near the settlement of Borovaya in the Kharkov Region, a US-made AN/TPQ-36 counter-battery radar was obliterated. Also, a Ukrainian Zoopark-1 reconnaissance and fire control radar was destroyed near the settlement of Nikopol in the Dnepropetrovsk Region," the spokesman said.

In the past 24 hours, operational/tactical and army aviation and artillery of the Russian group of forces struck 72 Ukrainian artillery units at firing positions, manpower and military equipment in 102 areas, the general reported.

Russian air defenses destroy 25 Ukrainian combat drones in past day

Russian air defense forces intercepted three rockets of the HIMARS and Uragan multiple launch rocket systems and destroyed 25 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles over the past day, Konashenkov reported.

"During the last 24-hour period, air defense capabilities intercepted three rockets of the HIMARS and Uragan multiple launch rocket systems. In addition, they destroyed 25 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles in areas near the settlements of Krivosheyevka and Kremennaya in the Lugansk People’s Republic, Belogorovka, Avdeyevka and Chasov Yar in the Donetsk People’s Republic, Kamenskoye, Tokmak and Pologi in the Zaporozhye Region, Golaya Pristan and Zburyevka in the Kherson Region," the spokesman said.

In all, the Russian Armed Forces have destroyed 422 Ukrainian combat aircraft, 230 helicopters, 4,099 unmanned aerial vehicles, 421 surface-to-air missile systems, 9,108 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 1,100 multiple rocket launchers, 4,796 field artillery guns and mortars and 10,141 special military motor vehicles since the beginning of the special military operation in Ukraine, Konashenkov reported.

AP/RT/Tass

Warring Sudanese factions fight on after failing to agree truce

Air strikes and artillery pounded Khartoum on Friday after Sudan's warring army and Rapid Support Forces paramilitary failed to agree to a ceasefire despite committing to protect civilians and allow humanitarian access.

A so-called declaration of principles was signed in Saudi Arabia late on Thursday after nearly a week of talks between the two factions, which had shared power before falling out over a transition to civilian rule.

RSF adviser Moussa Khadam told Sky News Arabia the group would abide by the principles agreed to and aimed to reach a complete ceasefire. But there was no let-up in violence and the army has not commented on the agreement.

Since clashing suddenly on April 15, the rival military factions have shown little sign they are ready to end deadly fighting that has uprooted hundreds of thousands of people and could pitch Sudan into a full-blown civil war.

The two forces issued competing statements on Friday that accused each other of harming civilians and ignoring the population's humanitarian needs.

The conflict has paralysed Sudan's economy and strangled its trade, aggravating a ballooning humanitarian crisis with the U.N. saying on Friday that 200,000people have now fled into neighbouring states.

However, U.N. Sudan envoy Volker Perthes said he expected ceasefire talks to start again on Friday or Saturday and, while previous truces broke down because both sides thought they could win, neither now believes that victory would be quick.

His upbeat assessment contrasted with disappointment among many in the capital.

"We were expecting that the agreement would calm down the war, but we woke up to artillery fire and airstrikes," said Mohamed Abdallah, 39, living in Khartoum. City residents said there was heavy fighting in parts of Khartoum and its adjoining sister city of Bahri.

In Darfur in the west, fighting between local militias that killed 450 people last month flared again in the city of Geneina as one group attacked another, rattling neighbourhoods with gunfire and artillery after two weeks of comparative calm.

In other parts of Darfur, where a war has simmered since 2003 killing 300,000 people and displacing 2.5 million, locally arranged ceasefires between the army and RSF appeared to hold.

In Port Sudan on the Red Sea, Al-Taj al-Tayyib said he hoped Thursday's agreement represented a start towards peace. "Our country doesn't need all these crises," he said.

HUMANITARIAN DEAL

Thursday's deal, the product of Saudi and U.S.-brokered talks in Jeddah, includes commitments to allow safe passage for civilians, medics and humanitarian relief, and to minimize harm to civilians and public facilities.

U.S. officials said negotiations for a ceasefire would follow and Saudi Arabia called the agreement "a first step". Mediators had pushed for the warring factions to reach a limited initial agreement as tension between them put a wider ceasefire out of reach for now, one told Reuters.

However, a senior U.S. State Department official said the two sides "are quite far apart" and the official did not expect them to fully comply with the agreement.

The rival forces agreed to quit private homes and other property, but a family in Bahri said RSF fighters had tried to take over their house on Friday morning.

Khartoum residents have frequently accused the paramilitary of taking over houses and hospitals as part of a tactic to embed in districts throughout the city as it fights an army that can call on air power.

The RSF has denied the claim, accusing the army and other armed groups of invading property.

"The parties must convey clear and unequivocal instructions to lower ranks" to enforce Thursday's agreement, said the United Nations, African Union and regional organisation IGAD.

However, Cameron Hudson of the Center for Strategic and International Studies said he doubted the RSF had enough control over its fighters to do so.

Previous ceasefire agreements have been repeatedly violated, leaving civilians to navigate a terrifying landscape of chaos and bombardment with failing power and water, little food and a collapsing health system.

KILLED AND DISPLACED

Many UN and other agencies have suspended aid to Sudan and in particular Khartoum, awaiting guarantees that their supplies and staff will be safe.

The World Health Organization has said at least 600 people have been killed and more than 5,000 injured in the fighting, but that real numbers are likely much higher.

In Darfur, local activist Gouja said Thursday's deal could help solidify locally arranged ceasefires. "But if there's no mechanism to monitor, then it won't be an improvement," he added.

Little humanitarian aid has reached Darfur's main cities of Nyala and al-Fasher, Gouja said, with salaries unpaid for two months. In Geneina, infrastructure has been destroyed and the health system totally disabled, as tens of thousands of inhabitants have fled into nearby Chad.

More than 700,000 Sudanese have been internally displaced, according to the UN.

Reuters

With just $3 million in assets, two employees, no ATM, no website, and no transaction fees, Kentland Federal Savings and Loan is the smallest bank in America, and it’s been around for over 100 years.

You’ve most likely heard of America’s banking giants – JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, and the Bank of America – but what about the smallest fish in the pond, so to speak? Well, at the opposite end, we have Kentland Federal Savings and Loan, officially the smallest bank in the United States of America. Founded back in 1920, by the great-grandfather of its current CEO, this tiny financial institution has only ever had one branch in Kentland, Indiana, and has only offered three services – obtaining a home mortgage, opening a savings account, and opening a certificate of deposit.

“We were the only institution that didn’t close during the stock exchange debacle in the late 1920s,” CEO James A. Sammons told Bloomberg. “People felt secure that their money wasn’t going anywhere.”

But the banking climate in America has changed in the last century, so Kentland Federal Savings and Loan is like looking back in time. Both CEO Sammons and his part-time teller are technology-averse and prefer using mechanical devices like a traditional coding machine to write checks. It is one of the reasons that Sammons believes that his way of doing business might end with him.

“When I am finished—whether it’s regulators pressuring us to be absorbed or me walking away—we will have to be acquired,” the 55-year-old CEO said.

Another reason for the impending demise of the Kentland Federal Savings and Loan is the small profit margins practiced by America’s smallest bank. It has managed to beat the local competition with slightly better rates on savings accounts and mortgages, but this is the only source of income, because the bank does not have ATM fees, no wire fees and no transaction fees of any kind.

Oddity Central

We have all heard the saying, “age is just a number,” but could there be some truth to the idea that certain ages are associated with peak physical attractiveness? According to recent studies, the answer is yes. Scientists have pinpointed the age at which people are considered the most physically attractive, and the results may surprise you.

Physical attractiveness is a subjective and ever-changing concept, but according to recent research, there may be a specific age when people are considered most attractive. Experts in the field have weighed in with their findings.

Age 30!

According to a study conducted by Allure magazine by surveying 2,000 Americans, women are perceived as most beautiful at the age of 30. However, they start showing signs of ageing by the age of 41 and are no longer considered sexy by the time they turn 53. Finally, they are generally regarded as ‘old’ once they hit 55 years of age.

A study published in the journal “Evolution and Human Behavior” found that men and women are considered most attractive in their late teens and early twenties. In addition, the study surveyed a diverse group of individuals from various cultures and backgrounds and found a consensus that people in this age range were considered the most attractive. This is due to the peak of physical maturity and youth-associated cues such as smooth skin, clear complexion, and symmetrical features.

Another study published in the journal “Psychological Science” found that attractiveness also peaks in a person’s early 30s. In addition, the study found that people in their 30s were considered more attractive than those in their 20s or 40s due to the youthful characteristics and the experience and confidence that comes with age.

Frenz Hub

Nigeria’s oil production fell below the one million mark in April 2023.

The production figure fell to 998,602 barrels per day (bpd), a 21.26 percent decline compared to March, when output was 1,268,202 bpd.

The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) disclosed this in its latest crude oil and condensate production data for April 2023.

The volume of production is at its lowest point in the last seven months.

In the previous year, oil production fell below one million bpd in August and September owing to several issues, including oil theft.

According to the NUPRC report, oil production decreased from 1.517 million bpd in March 2023 to 1.245 million bpd in April 2023, with the addition of condensate.

Condensate is a mixture of light liquid hydrocarbons, similar to a light (high API) crude oil. It is usually separated from a natural gas stream at the point of production (field separation) when the temperature and pressure of the gas are dropped to atmospheric conditions.

Speaking about the current oil output, Gbenga Komolafe, chief executive officer (CEO) of the NUPRC, on Wednesday, said oil production is currently about one million bpd below “its technically allowable capacity”.

He was represented by Kelechi Ofoegbu, the executive commissioner for economy, regulatory, and strategic planning, NUPRC, at a host communities sensitisation workshop.

Komolafe attributed the low oil production to a number of issues, including the energy transition’s impact on hydrocarbon funding, a lack of investments, and insecurity.

“While the commission is prioritising efforts towards increasing oil and gas production and ensuring maximum federation revenue through the optimisation of oil and gas value chain, the efforts have been constrained by a myriad of challenges,” he said.

“These challenges range from insecurity, low investment, and de-prioritisation of funding of hydrocarbon development arising from the energy transition.

“Currently, Nigeria has the technical allowable capacity to produce about 2.5 million barrels of oil per day. However, arising from the highlighted challenges, our current production hovers around 1.5 million barrels of oil and condensate per day.”

The Cable

WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

In Bakhmut's ruins, Ukraine says intensity of Wagner attacks growing

A Ukrainian brigade commander fighting in the ruins of Bakhmut said Russian mercenary forces have stepped up shelling and artillery attacks in recent days and were not facing a munitions shortage, despite its chief's claims to the contrary.

Russian mercenary boss Yevgeny Prigozhin has complained for weeks that Russia's army is depriving his Wagner troops of enough ammunition to capture the eastern Ukrainian city, where months of fierce fighting have been dubbed the "meat grinder".

Reuters has not been able to independently confirm the situation on the ground there.

Ukrainian Colonel Roman Hryshchenko, the commander of Ukraine's 127th Territorial Defence Brigade, rejected Prigozhin's claims in an interview by video link.

"They haven't had anything even close to a munitions deficit. In the last few days, the intensity of shelling and rocket artillery has increased," Hryshchenko said.

He said Russian forces were conducting constant assaults in the city - and that Ukrainian troops were beating them back.

"The situation is difficult. The enemy is throwing a great deal of its forces at us, constant waves of assaults," he told Reuters late on Wednesday.

He and the rest of his brigade have inhabited the ruins of Bakhmut for nearly two months, he said.

He messaged shortly after the interview to say the positions where he had spoken from had been set ablaze by a strike.

He said Russian forces were suffering casualties several times higher than his unit, but declined to give numbers.

"(Russia) is losing a great deal of its troops… Bakhmut has already fulfilled its main task, and continues to fulfil it. Here, we are butchering the enemy's manpower," he said.

The former military prosecutor said only 30% of his brigade, which was originally recruited as a local territorial unit in March 2022 when their home city of Kharkiv was attacked, had previous combat experience but they were now seasoned soldiers.

"They (Russian forces) don't just retreat by themselves. It's a big, arduous task, and we need to work very hard to drive them out," he said. "For every metre, ten metres, section of trench, for every building, we need to try very hard."

He suggested that news from Bakhmut, of an unspecified nature, would be coming "soon", smiling but declining to expand.

"I ask everyone to have a little bit of patience, and you will see," he said.

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

Russian military clarifies frontline situation in Ukraine

Russian Defense Ministry has denied rumors of a large-scale Ukrainian counterattack, noting in a statement late on Thursday that the situation along most of the frontline appeared to be relatively calm, with the only heavy fighting in and near Artyomovsk, also known as Bakhmut.

“Reports by certain Telegram channels of ‘breaches of defenses’ in several places along the line of contact are not accurate,” the ministry said around 11 pm Moscow time. “The general situation in the area of the special military operation is under control.”

According to the Russian military, the last remaining part of Artyomovsk was being stormed with air force and artillery support, while there was an “ongoing battle” to repel the attack of Ukrainian units in the direction of Malo-Ilyinkovka, northwest of the city, with “heavy enemy casualties in lives and equipment.”

Eight Ukrainian attacks and three attempts at reconnaissance in force were repelled on the Donetsk front, the Russian military said. Russian forces continue efforts to take all of Marynka and blockade Avdeevka.

Ukrainian troops attempted two company-sized attacks towards Kremennaya but were repulsed. Three scouting parties were defeated further north, near Kupyansk. The ministry first said there had been no “active operations” on Kherson or Zaporozhye fronts in the south, but later published a list of Ukrainian losses on the Kherson front from Russian artillery, and reported shooting down 12 HIMARS rockets and a Su-25 ground attack jet.

Earlier in the day, multiple military correspondents had reported that the Ukrainian counter-offensive might have started, with a “breakthrough” near Artyomovsk and several attacks all along the frontline. One reporter cited military sources to claim the Ukrainians had used chemical weapons at a stretch of the Zaporozhye front as well.

Kiev has not commented on Thursday’s movements so far. Earlier in the day, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky claimed his military still needed more time to prepare before the long-awaited spring attack.

** US begins passing confiscated Russian money on to Ukraine

US Attorney General Merrick Garland has authorized the first-ever transfer to Ukraine’s state coffers of expropriated Russian funds.

In a statement on Wednesday, the official said the money seized from Russian businessman Konstantin Malofeyev will be sent for the reconstruction of Ukraine, in response to Moscow’s military operation in that country, which began in February 2022.

“While this represents the US’ first transfer of forfeited Russian funds for the rebuilding of Ukraine, it will not be the last,” the Attorney General stated.

Last year, the US Department of Justice charged Malofeyev with sanctions evasion. At the time, prosecutors claimed the businessman had provided financing for Russians promoting separatism in Crimea, the formerly Ukrainian territory that reunified with Russia in 2014.

At the time Garland announced “the seizure of millions of dollars from an account at a US financial institution traceable to Malofeyev’s sanctions violations.”

Washington and its allies have been debating the issue of expropriating Russian funds since last year, arguing over, among other aspects of the scheme, the legality of using such frozen assets to help Ukraine.

The US Department of Justice has launched a dedicated unit called KleptoCapture to help enforce sanctions on Russian government officials and business figures, targeting their yachts, jets, real estate, and other assets.

In December, the US Congress passed a law directing the State Department to award certain proceeds from confiscated Russian assets to Ukraine. The first such transfer was approved in February and involved $5.4 million seized from Malofeyev.

Moscow has called Western attempts to transfer the seized assets to Ukraine “barbarism,” saying that, if necessary, Russia will respond in kind. Moscow has also described the freezing of its assets as “theft,” warning that it violates international law.

Reuters/RT/Tass

The Federal Government spent $112.35m servicing external debt in January 2023. Data from the Central Bank of Nigeria’s Weekly International Payments showed that the amount spent in January was 146.17 per cent higher than the $45.64m spent in December 2022.

This occurred as the Federal Government struggled to boost its revenue base despite its revenue generation efforts.

The Federation Account Allocation Committee shared N750.17bn among the three tiers of government in January 2023.

The figure represents a decrease of N240.02bn compared to the N990.19bn shared in December 2022.

In 2022, Nigeria spent $2.4bn to service its external debt, which was a slight increase from the $2.11bn spent in 2021.

Federal Government deducted over N78bn from allocations made to the states for external debt servicing.

This was according to data from the Federation Account Allocation Committee Disbursement reports published by the National Bureau of Statistics.

The deductions were made in 2022 from the allocations given to state governments from the Federation Account.

The federation account is currently being managed under a legal framework that allows funds to be shared under three major components: statutory allocation, Value Added Tax distribution and derivation principle.

The most hit state by the deductions was Lagos, with about N23.61bn deducted in 2022 for external debt servicing.

It was followed by Kaduna, with N10.25bn deducted, and Cross River with N7.56bn deducted.

The International Monetary Fund recently said the Federal Government projected to spend 82 per cent of its revenue on interest payments in 2023.

According to the IMF, external debt (including that of the private sector) will rise to $121.6bn, with external reserves climbing to $37.5bn.

It disclosed this in a table of projections in its ‘IMF Executive Board Concludes 2022 Article IV Consultation with Nigeria Summary

The projections showed an improvement in the share of the government’s revenue used as interest payment, with interest payment falling from 96.3 per cent in 2022 to 82 per cent in 2023.

It added that interest payment was 86.1 per cent and 87.8 per cent of the Federal Government’s revenue in 2020 and 2021, respectively.

Punch

Sudan's rival forces agree to protect civilians but no ceasefire

Sudan's warring factions early on Friday committed to protect civilians and the movement of humanitarian aid, but did not agree to a ceasefire and remain far apart, U.S. officials said.

After a week of talks in the Saudi port of Jeddah, Sudan's army and rival paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) signed a declaration that they would work towards a short-term ceasefire in further discussions, they said.

"The two sides are quite far apart," a senior U.S. State Department official said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

A text of the declaration released after the talks said the two factions "commit to prioritizing discussions to achieve a short-term ceasefire to facilitate the delivery of emergency humanitarian assistance and restoration of essential services."

A U.S. State Department statement said the parties would focus on reaching a deal for an effective ceasefire of up to about 10 days.

Negotiators working with Saudi and U.S. mediators will next discuss specific security measures for safeguarding relief supplies, the U.S. official said. The State Department statement said measures "will include a U.S.-Saudi and international-supported ceasefire monitoring mechanism."

Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan said in a post on Twitter that the talks and the commitment to protecting civilians were a first step, and "other steps will follow".

"The most important thing is to adhere to what was agreed upon, and the Kingdom will work until security and stability return to Sudan and its brotherly people," the Saudi minister said.

The army and RSF said in their agreement that they would schedule "subsequent expanded discussions to achieve a permanent cessation of hostilities."

The U.S. official said it would be a long process to move from a temporary ceasefire, once agreed, to a permanent cessation of hostilities. But Washington hopes the two sides' willingness to sign Friday's declaration will build momentum.

Civilian groups are expected to participate later in the talks, the U.S. official said. The Forces for Freedom and Change, a coalition of political parties supporting democratic rule, called the declaration "an important first step towards ending the war" and urged the forces to abide by it.

Clashes rocked Halfaya, an entry point to the capital Khartoum, on Thursday as residents heard warplanes circling over Khartoum and its adjoining cities of Bahri and Omdurman, but the fighting appeared calmer than on Wednesday.

In public neither side has shown it is ready to offer concessions to end the conflict that erupted suddenly last month, threatening to pitch Sudan into a civil war, killing hundreds of people and triggering a humanitarian crisis.

Previous ceasefire agreements have been repeatedly violated, leaving civilians to navigate a terrifying landscape of chaos and bombardment with failing power and water, little food and a collapsing health system.

ALLOW DEAD TO BE BURIED

The senior State Department official said the declaration signed early Friday seeks to improve the flow of humanitarian relief and begin restoration of water and electricity services.

Mediators hope it will be possible "to arrange for the withdrawal of security forces from hospitals and clinics, and to perform the respectful burial of the dead," the official said.

The World Health Organization has said more than 600 people have been killed and more than 5,000 injured in the fighting. The Health Ministry said at least 450 people were killed in the western Darfur region.

Many have fled Khartoum and Darfur, uprooting 700,000 people inside the country and sending 150,000 as refugees into neighbouring states, according to U.N. figures.

Western countries condemned abuses by both sides at a human rights meeting in Geneva, but Sudan's envoy there said the conflict was "an internal affair".

Reuters

It started like a grudge match. Africa’s richest man, Aliko Dangote, was dealt a bad hand in a failed transaction. Later, he vowed revenge. Not in a pound of flesh, but by venturing to make his own success where he had been ambushed. 

At issue was the decision of the government of Umaru Musa Yar’Adua in 2007 to reverse the sale of the Port Harcourt and Kaduna Refineries (two of Nigeria’s moribund refineries) to Blue Star, the Dangote-led consortium. 

Blue Star had paid about $670million for the plants in the twilight of the Obasanjo administration, and gone away thinking it was a done deal. It wasn’t. 

Even though the refineries were producing at about 20 percent of their capacity at the time of sale, the Yar’Adua government, egged on by labour, insisted the “national patrimony” were under-valued and underpriced. The sale was reversed.

Dangote walked away bruised, but unbowed. Six years later he announced plans to build a private refinery in Lagos with a capacity of 650,000 bpd – over 200,000 bpd more than the installed capacity of Nigeria’s four refineries combined. 

It sounded like a crazy idea. So crazy, Nigeria’s Central Bank Governor Godwin Emefiele said on Tuesday, that on account of it, the U.S. lender J.P Morgan threatened to expel Nigeria from its Government Bond Index for Emerging Markets.

After unforeseen delays, including cost reviews (from the original $12-$14billion to $19billion) not to mention energy transition concerns, the glut in global supply caused by Covid-19 and spooky markets caused by the Russia-Ukraine war, the refinery is now set for official commissioning on May 22. 

One source told me on Monday that perhaps the most significant recent reason for the delay was the need to sychronise power supply to the Fluid Catalytic Cracking Unit (FCCU), which has now been significantly completed by General Electric. 

Apart from an estimated 250,000 direct and indirect jobs that the refinery would create, the refinery is also expected to spin off other business opportunities, a story that Dangote loves to share in a country with 33 percent unemployment. 

S&P Global reported two months ago that early commencement of the Dangote Refinery would not only benefit Nigeria, but could also benefit Africa currently suffering a shortage of diesel as a result of the closure of three of five refineries in South Africa. 

The continent imports about 700,000 bpd of diesel. Diesel is one of the four quality Euro-V products expected from Dangote Refinery. Others are gasoline, jet fuel and polypropylene.

But how does Africa’s richest man propose to deal with the growing resonance of the global green army?

He was once outspoken on global warming and its predations. At a fundraiser hosted by the Lagos State government for victims of a major flood disaster in 2011, Dangote said, “All over the world, nature is reacting. We are having extreme weather conditions…as managers of the city, our responsibility is to share knowledge with our people to prepare for the worst and hope for the best.”

That was before he started building his refinery. For Nigeria and much of Africa, where energy resources, renewable and otherwise, remain considerably underutilised, the choice seems to swing between managing emissions, already among the lowest in the world, and expanding industrial processes required to meet rising energy demand.

Dangote Group said it was not in denial of the dilemma it faces from green campaigners. The Group Executive Director, Strategy, Capital Projects and Portfolio Development, Devakumar G. Edwin, said five years ago that the group was dedicated to producing “efficient and clean fuels by investing in processes that meet European standards of gasoline.”  

Edwin tracked back to why the refinery was started. “Primarily,” he said, “Nigeria exports raw materials and imports finished products. When you import the finished product back, you are essentially importing poverty into the country. 

“We have always focused on import substitution. It’s what we are doing in sugar and what we’ve done in cement. So, we decided to adopt the same strategy for petroleum refining.”

Apart from the economic implications, an NGO, Stakeholder Democracy Network, reported on its website that the quality of the stock of imported fuel could also potentially undermine air toxicity, and cause other environmental problems.

Yet, the Energy Transition Plan (ETP), a green playbook by the government to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, is an indication that Nigeria recognises the urgency of sustainable carbon footprint.

The ETP comes on the heels of the Petroleum Industry Act, finally ratified in 2021. The law is supposed to introduce stability, transparency and accountability to an industry that has long resisted reform. 

The ETP anticipates a scenario in which increased investment in the sector would lead to an uptake in the use of gas as a “transition fuel” and also help accelerate the move toward decarbonisation. 

The divergence of opinions surrounding what methods to implement and what outcomes to project has in some way come to define the conversation on sustainability, with a number of developing countries even canvassing such ideas as “energy justice!” 

Large industrial projects like Dangote Refinery, which covers 2,635 hectares, are infamous for environmental challenges they present to the local ecosystem, often causing long-term damage and increased risk of displacement. Already, local populations have called attention to the disruptive effects of the refinery to the environment and their livelihood.

The continent faces what could well be Hobson’s choice: how to overcome widespread energy poverty while at the same time not ignoring global concerns about the deleterious effects of converting its rich deposits of hydrocarbon resources. Nigeria, like many commodity-rich countries on the continent, is at a crossroads. Is there a bridge?

Maybe. And Africa’s richest man is poised not only to fill a vital supply gap but also to do so as a business, keenly aware of all the bad habits that ruined the state refineries. Reuters quoted him as saying he was focused on starting production at the end of the third quarter of 2022 and to reach full capacity by early 2023 – a dream now deferred.

Dangote Refinery is not Nigeria’s first experience in private refining. To plug the supply gap, previous governments issued dozens of licences for “modular refineries.” 

As a result of price caps and other regulatory hassles, however, only two of them with a combined capacity of 10,000 bpd are currently producing. Yet their combined output, even with those of rogue refineries that dot the oil-rich Niger Delta region, still fall far short of the estimated daily consumption of 72million litres daily, an estimate still viewed with suspicion in some circles. 

One and a half decades after Dangote’s Blue Star misery, the mood in official circles has changed. In 2021, the government gave state oil firm, NNPC Limited, approval to buy a 20 percent stake valued at $2.76billion in Dangote Refinery, indicating a significant shift in government attitude. 

Dangote told The Economist that the refinery would save Nigeria up to $10 billion in foreign exchange and generate approximately $10 billion in exports. The country’s perennially opaque petrol demand and supply chain could also be re-written. While the location of the Refinery could bring benefits of lower freighting costs, pump prices would still be largely determined by the markets.

Nigeria imports 80-90 percent of all domestically consumed petroleum products. According to the Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC), Nigeria imported $11.3 billion in refined petroleum products in 2021, becoming the 18th largest importer of the products in the world, while refined petroleum was the first most imported product in Nigeria.

Whatever the world may be saying about fossil fuels, carbon footprint and spooky markets, the hundreds of thousands of unemployed Nigerians cannot wait for the relief that the commencement of the refinery promises, even if it’s indirect.

As Kudirat Oyefeso, a trader in Ajah, Lagos, about eight kilometres from the site of Dangote Refinery said, “It is the person who is alive and has something to do that can worry about climate change.”

Looking back in his quiet moments 16 years after he felt hard done by the Blue Star experience, Africa’s richest man might perhaps sometimes pinch himself as he recalls how what started as a grudge match has ended up feeling like the parable of the rejected stone.  

** Ishiekwene is Editor-In-Chief of LEADERSHIP