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President Cyril Ramaphosa called on South Africa's political parties to work together for the good of the country as final results from last week's election confirmed his African National Congress had lost its majority for the first time.

The result, announced on Sunday, is the worst election showing for the ANC - Africa's oldest liberation movement, once led by Nelson Mandela - since it came to power 30 years ago, ending white minority rule.

Voters, angry at joblessness, inequality and rolling blackouts, slashed support for the ANC to 40.2%, down from 57.5% in the previous 2019 parliamentary vote.

Official results showed the ANC winning 159 seats in the 400-seat National Assembly, down from 230 previously.

The result means that the ANC must now share power, likely with a major political rival, in order to keep it - an unprecedented prospect in South Africa's post-apartheid history.

"South Africans expect the parties for which they have voted to find common ground, overcome their differences and act together for the good of everyone. That's what South Africans have said," Ramaphosa said after the electoral commission announced the final results.

He called the election a "victory for our democracy."

Political parties now have two weeks to work out a deal before the new parliament sits to choose a president, who would likely still hail from the ANC, since it remains the biggest force.

"This is the time for all of us to put South Africa first," Ramaphosa said.

ANC officials earlier on Sunday said the party was humbled by the result and had "nothing to celebrate" but stood by Ramaphosa, once Mandela's lead negotiator to end apartheid, and said they would not bend to pressure for him to step down.

The poor showing has fuelled speculation that Ramaphosa's days might be numbered, either due to the demands of a prospective coalition partner or as a result of an internal leadership challenge.

"That is a no-go area," Fikile Mbalula, the ANC's secretary general, told a press briefing, the party's first since the polls.

"Did we commit mistakes? Yes, we did. In governance and everywhere else," he said, adding that the ANC was now committed to forming a government "that is stable and that is able to govern effectively".

The ANC's leadership will meet on Tuesday to plot the path forward.

COSATU - South Africa's largest trade union group and a major ANC ally - also rallied behind Ramaphosa.

"What's key is that a coalition be led by the ANC and President Ramaphosa," COSATU spokesman Matthew Parks said.

'DOOMSDAY COALITION'

Before Wednesday's vote, the ANC had won every national election by a landslide since 1994, but over the last decade its support has waned.

The main opposition party, the white-led, pro-business Democratic Alliance(DA), received 21.8% of votes.

uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK) - "spear of the nation" in the Zulu language - a new party led by former President Jacob Zuma named after the ANC's former armed wing, managed to take 14.6%, doing most of the damage to the ANC.

Despite doing better than expected, MK said it was considering challenging the results in court.

The far-left Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), led by former ANC youth leader Julius Malema, got 9.5%.

The prospect of an ANC tie-up with either the EFF or MK has rattled South Africa's business community and international investors, who would prefer a coalition that brings in the DA.

DA leader John Steenhuisen said on the party's YouTube channel that it had named a team to begin talks with other parties with the aim of preventing such an alliance, which he called a "doomsday coalition".

"For the Democratic Alliance, burying our heads in the sand while South Africa faces its greatest threat since the dawn of democracy is not an option," he said.

The small Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP), a conservative Zulu party with a power base in KwaZulu-Natal province that won nearly 4% of the vote, was to meet separately on Sunday to discuss its next steps.

Local media reported that the DA could be open to entering a cooperation pact with the ANC, supporting it in key decisions in exchange for top jobs in parliament. The IFP would also be part of such a deal.

"I would almost certainly think (the ANC) wouldn't just go with the DA. They would most probably go with somebody like the IFP as well just because of the perception that the DA is a very white party," said Melanie Verwoerd, a political analyst.

 

Reuters

Biden's Gaza plan 'not a good deal' but Israel accepts it, Netanyahu aide says

An aide to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed on Sunday that Israel had accepted a framework deal for winding down the Gaza war now being advanced by U.S. President Joe Biden, though he described it as flawed and in need of much more work.

In an interview with Britain's Sunday Times, Ophir Falk, chief foreign policy advisor to Netanyahu, said Biden's proposal was "a deal we agreed to — it's not a good deal but we dearly want the hostages released, all of them".

"There are a lot of details to be worked out," he said, adding that Israeli conditions, including "the release of the hostages and the destruction of Hamas as a genocidal terrorist organisation" have not changed.

Later on Sunday, the U.S. State Department said Secretary of State Antony Blinken held separate phone calls about the proposal with Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and Benny Gantz, a centrist minister who joined Netanyahu in an emergency coalition.

In the call with Gantz, Blinken "emphasized that Hamas should take the deal without delay," the department said in a statement.

In a separate statement, the State Department said that in the call with Gallant, Blinken "commended Israel’s readiness to conclude a deal" and "underscored that the proposal would advance Israel’s long-term security interests, including by enabling the possibility of further integration in the region." Biden, whose initial lockstep support for Israel's offensive has given way to open censure of the operation's high civilian death toll, on Friday aired what he described as a three-phase plan submitted by the Netanyahu government to end the war.

The first phase entails a truce and the return of some hostages held by Hamas, after which the sides would negotiate on an open-ended cessation of hostilities for a second phase in which remaining live captives would go free, Biden said.

That sequencing appears to imply that Hamas would continue to play a role in incremental arrangements mediated by Egypt and Qatar - a potential clash with Israel's determination to resume the campaign to eliminate the Iranian-backed Islamist group.

Biden has hailed several ceasefire proposals over the past several months, each with similar frameworks to the one he outlined on Friday, all of which collapsed. In February he said Israel had agreed to halt fighting by Ramadan, the Muslim holy month that began on March 10. No such truce materialised.

The primary sticking point has been Israel's insistence that it would discuss only temporary pauses to fighting until Hamas is destroyed. Hamas, which shows no sign of stepping aside, says it will free hostages only under a path to a permanent end to the war.

In his speech, Biden said his latest proposal "creates a better 'day after' in Gaza without Hamas in power". He did not elaborate on how this would be achieved and acknowledged that "there are a number of details to negotiate to move from phase one to phase two".

Falk reiterated Netanyahu's position that "there will not be a permanent ceasefire until all our objectives are met".

Netanyahu is under pressure to keep his coalition government intact. Two far-right partners have threatened to bolt in protest at any deal they deem to spare Hamas.

Hamas has provisionally welcomed the Biden initiative, though a senior official from the group, Sami Abu Zuhri, said on Sunday that "Hamas is too big to be bypassed or sidelined by Netanyahu or Biden."

A day earlier another Hamas official, Osama Hamdan, told Al Jazeera: "Biden's speech included positive ideas, but we want this to materialise within the framework of a comprehensive agreement that meets our demands."

Hamas wants a guaranteed end to the Gaza offensive, withdrawal of all invading forces, free movement for Palestinians and reconstruction aid.

Israeli officials have rejected that as an effective return to the situation in place before Oct. 7, when Hamas, committed to Israel's destruction, ruled Gaza. Its fighters precipitated the war by storming across the border fence into Israel, killing 1,200 people and taking more than 250 hostages, according to Israeli tallies.

In the ensuing Israeli assault that has laid waste to much of the impoverished and besieged coastal enclave, more than 36,000 Palestinians have been killed, Gaza medical officials say. Israel says 290 of its troops have died in the fighting.

 

Reuters

WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Scholz to Putin: we will defend 'every square inch' of NATO territory

NATO's recent move to strengthen its eastern border is aimed at deterring Russia, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said on Sunday, adding that it should be clear to Moscow that the alliance will be ready to defend itself if necessary.

Speaking at the Eastern German Economic Forum also attended by Lithuanian Prime Minister Ingrida Simonyte, Scholz said Germany has played a leading role in NATO's presence in the Baltics on Russia's border, stretching back nearly a decade.

"And because the threat from Russia will continue, we and other allies decided last year to deploy additional units to the Baltic states and to station an entire brigade there permanently in future," Scholz said, according to a speech manuscript.

"But this turnaround in security policy is necessary to show Russia: We are prepared to defend every square inch of NATO territory against attacks."

He said diplomacy would only be successful from a position of strength, adding that it was absolutely vital that Baltic states could fully rely on NATO allies jumping to their defence in the event of a Russian attack.

"And that is a message for us. But it is also a message to Russia. Because the credibility of this promise is of course also part of Russia's calculation."

Russian President Vladimir Putin earlier this week warned NATO members against allowing Ukraine to fire their weapons into Russia, after several Western allies lifted restrictions imposed on the use of weapons donated to Kyiv.

NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg on Friday dismissed the warnings, saying the alliance had heard them many times before and self-defence was not escalation.

 

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

Hundreds protest Ukraine aid in Berlin

Hundreds of protesters marched in the German capital, Berlin, on Saturday, demanding a halt to military aid for Kiev and the “dangerous” anti-Russia rhetoric. This comes on the heels of explosive statements from the German government earlier this week regarding Ukraine’s use of Western-supplied weapons for strikes deep inside Russia.

Footage from the demonstration shows protesters marching from Berlin’s Alexanderplatz with flags and banners reading: “Stop war and hate speech against Russia,” “Stop Russophobia in Politics and Media,” and “NATO is the aggressor not Russia.” Activists accused the German government of making political decisions “on orders from Washington,” and warned of the consequences of a direct conflict with Moscow.

“The German government is not sovereign... When you see how the German government destroyed its economy with agreeing with Washington… then you see Germany is not in control of the situation,” an activist who identified himself as George told Ruptly video agency. He added that the government’s decision to give Kiev “weapons that can reach Russia” makes Germany “a partner in this war,” creating a situation which is “very dangerous for Germany, for Germans, and the rest of the world.”

Another activist called on Berlin to “do everything it can to ensure that no war economy is necessary and that no land war comes.”

NATO and its Western allies have provided weapons and equipment to Ukraine, but maintained restrictions on their use. However, Kiev has recently intensified calls to relax the restrictions, especially those limiting its ability to strike targets in Russia. Several NATO states have spoken in favor of the move, including Germany.

Earlier this week, German government spokesman Steffen Hebestreit said Berlin believes Kiev’s “defensive action is not limited to its own territory, but [can] also be expanded to the territory of the aggressor.” On Friday, he went on to signal that Kiev can use the weapons supplied by the West to attack Russian border regions from which the Ukrainian army’s positions in Kharkov Region are attacked.

Moscow has warned that Western arms supplies to Kiev will only prolong the conflict. Commenting on talk within NATO regarding Ukraine’s use of Western-supplied weapons to strike deep inside Russia, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov accused the bloc of provoking a new “round of tensions.”

“They are doing this deliberately, we hear a lot of hawkish statements… They are in every possible way provoking Ukraine to continue this senseless war. They themselves intend to continue the war with us, the war in both the literal and figurative sense,” he told reporters on Thursday.

 

Reuters/RT

Nothing is easier than self-deceit. For what each man wishes, he also believes to be true” – Demosthenes, 384-322 BC, VANGUARD BOOK OF QUOTATIONS, p 224

If you honestly believe that the Lagos-Calabar Road will be completed in seven years, then you probably have rocks where brains should be; and you represent one of the cardinal reasons Africa might never develop for centuries to come. Nothing is more distressing than watching highly educated, erudite, well-informed and apparently patriotic media commentators destroy their reputations once they become officials of the ruling party.

The transformation first struck me when President Yar’Adua was elected; and several highly-respected editors and columnists were appointed to high office. The less said about that episode, the better. But, the matter did not end there. Jonathan succeeded Yar’Adua and individuals who were previously contemptuous of GEJ were again appointed to high office. Suddenly, they became ferocious defenders of the man they once condemned. Apparently, with regard to some Nigerian media personalities, “every man has his price”. Nobody should believe us until we are appointed to high office. Then media men reveal our true colours.

That is only a preamble to the matters arising concerning the biggest project in Nigerian history. My senior in the media, Dan Agbese, writing in the DAILY TRUST, two Sundays ago, had lamented the nation’s atrocious record with regard to abandoned projects. He briefly mentioned the Lagos-Calabar coastal road while expressing fears that the road might also join the league of such projects. I sent Dan a short message stating without fear that the road might never be completed; that it will stop any time Tinubu ceases to be President of Nigeria. Even Vice President Shettima if he succeeds Tinubu will not continue it because the decision to embark on it was hastily made.

SEVERAL QUESTIONS NEEDING ANSWERS

Before Tinubu’s Halleluyah chorus group – editors, Chairmen of the Editorial Board, columnists and guest writers – get all worked up, I am only asking them to be professional, honourable and to put on their thinking caps and answer a few questions. They might just be able to convince other Nigerians that this is not a bogus venture which will cost Fellow Nigerians trillions of naira later – without yielding the returns on investment promised.

The place to start this discussion is to establish some facts (facts are sacred as they claim, but don’t always practice) which are incontestable about this project.

One, it is the largest project in Nigerian history; covering nine coastal states each with different topology and all of which are now well-settled. Two, the road to be carved out will be 700 kilometres long; may be an African record, but, by far short of the Guinness Book of Records – which is the coastal road from Canada to South America – 30,000 kilometres long which took nearly 80 years to complete. Three, although, the Federal Government has embarked on it, through a ‘SWEET HEART’ deal with a contractor, nobody actually knows how much it would cost the nation. But, over N1 trillion has been paid in advance to the preferred contractor. Four, it is doubtful if any of the state Governors, except Lagos, knows exactly where the road will pass through their states and what they will be asked to surrender to the FG for demolition. It is quite possible that no state has been formally requested to donate land for this purpose. Five, it is uncertain that the National Assembly, NASS, was informed and its consent sought to embark on the journey. Six, whose brainchild was the idea? When and how was the original proposal presented to the Federal Executive Council for deliberations? Bearing in mind that Ministers were not appointed until August 2023, when did David Umahi know that this gigantic project was going to fall on his laps? How many pages of document were originally sent to his office to convince the engineer that this is a project that can be executed in seven years?

Seven, the President, while launching the project in Lagos State, on May 29, 2024, proclaimed that the “Coastal highway will boost 30 million businesses” – according to various media reports. If you believe that drivel, then you will believe anything.

Permit me to start from number seven; to ask the questions which Tinubu’s true believers would not ask – for a simple reason. I still strongly believe, like I. F Stone, 1907-1989, that “every government is run by liars and nothing they say should be believed,” – until they are fact-checked and found to be true. When the statement credited to a government official, irrespective of position, points to future expectations, then, the first thing to do is to determine the credibility of the speaker. The second thing is to subject the statement to critical analysis in order to assess whether available information supports it. If there is one thing politicians do routinely, and without remorse, it is to make empty promises – which their fanatical party members and media mercenaries spread as gospel truth. It is expected that some erudite media practitioners are already writing and talking as if 30 million businesses have been boosted. But, wait a minute.

How many businesses are there in Nigeria now? All the attempts to obtain a more current set of data were frustrated by Nigeria’s lack of a timely data base. The closest available was from moniepoint.com, which revealed that “39,654,385 macro, small and medium enterprises (MSME) operated in Nigeria in 2020; as against 41,543,028 in 2017.” DAILY TRUST chipped in the information that 3.1 million registered companies existed in 2019. Given the fact that Nigeria’s manufacturing sector had been shedding members, it is doubtful if the numbers of MSMEs and registered companies would have increased significantly since 2020 from approximately 42 million businesses. Tinubu, and his disciples, would want us to believe that 70 per cent of the nation’s businesses will be boosted by the coastal highway.

The first question is: How stupid do these people think we are? The second is: Can anybody publish within 48 hours the perspective study undertaken to arrive at the self-deceptive figure? Third, since this is not the first coastal highway ever built, can anybody in that government point to another precedent to assure Nigerians that this “road to nowhere” will boost 30 million businesses nationwide? I have a hunch. This brainwave originated from the same source(s) where the announcement of MAERSK Shipping Lines agreeing to invest $600 million in Nigerian ports. That hoax was actually supported with fake audio-visual presentation which was a tissue of lies. Why believe them now?

Now, we return to the first statement of fact. A federal road, 700 kilometres long, passing through nine states is contemplated in a country where the FG does not have a square inch of road to call its own, on account of the Land Use Decree of 1978, the obvious questions are: When were the Governors told of the peoples’ land they would be asked to forfeit? Can somebody show Nigerians a copy of the letter making the request? Obviously, all the Governors have an obligation to their people.

Granted, most of them behave like emperors once elected. But, there must be a limit to impunity. Is it possible that all the Governors – majority belonging to the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, conspired with their APC colleagues to deny the people of every state the right to know that their ancestral lands were being offered to the FG; and that millions of them would be rendered homeless, jobless and destitute? Which Governor, worthy of the office, can come out and admit to such betrayal of his people? And why?

I strongly believe the Governors were ambushed and bullied to submit to the FG.

The seeds of future conflict might have been sown by this conspiracy of silence.

The road might not go beyond the boundary of Ogun State.

To be continued….

 

Vanguard

When values conflict, leaders must adopt a relational approach to resolution.

Employees who experience value conflicts with your organization do not intend to be difficult when they speak up. The misalignment of their values with those of the organization profoundly affects them and that misalignment feels unsustainable.

When the rules or culture of the organization go against the core beliefs or identities of individuals, it leads to a conflict of values.

These value conflicts compel people to speak up. If it is not safe for them to speak up, they will likely choose to disengage from the workplace culture. 

These conflicts are not typically personality-driven, nor are they about status or a specific project. Value conflicts go to the very core of an individual's sense of belonging.

Because of the weightiness of value conflicts, they can be difficult to resolve and adversely affect the individual, team and entire workplace environment.

Why are value conflicts so difficult to navigate?

Your values are your judgments of what is important in life. These personal judgments are based on an individual's ethical, political, and religious beliefs.

Organizations also have a shared set of values. Organizational values may be explicit or implicit, but they exist regardless of whether they are clearly identified and acknowledged.

Today, many companies have established an onboarding process that introduces employees to the company's values and policies.

Ongoing training on diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI), self-care, mental health and professional development fosters a sense of belonging and creates a positive workplace culture.

Regular discussions about company values give everyone in the company an opportunity to raise value conflicts and allow leaders to reexamine the company's values. 

Even the most engaging and people-centered organizations face value conflicts. For example:

  • Business partners disagree about whether a long-term client crossed an ethical line and, if a line was crossed, how to address it.
  • A staff member reports discrimination by a manager who they believe treats them differently than the rest of the team.
  • An employee experiences extreme anxiety, stress, and overwhelm due to recent firings that tripled their workload.

When an employee's values are not aligned with the values of the organization, the individual may feel like they are being taken advantage of or disrespected. They often don't feel like a valued member of the organization.  

You might think their reaction is more severe than necessary, but when someone's core values are violated, they feel threatened – as if their very safety is at risk.

If conversations around value conflicts are not navigated thoughtfully, both parties will experience increased stress and resentment and your employee will likely disengage from work.  

Your role as a leader is to understand more about the value conflicts in your organization and the impact of those conflicts on your team.

When a team member raises concerns about a value conflict, understand that they are taking a risk and are likely afraid that you won't understand their concerns or that you might see them as disagreeable or problematic.

It's also important to note that value conflicts may not be raised directly but might present as a heated exchange or an uncompromising negotiation. 

By addressing the situation constructively, you will not only learn about the conflict and how it impacts your team and the organization but also whether you can resolve the conflict.  

Seven steps to resolve value conflicts

When values come into the mix, you must adopt a relational approach. In other words, you must try to put yourself in the other person's shoes to learn about their experience.

And since this could be a sensitive topic to discuss, be thoughtful and sincere. Consider planning for the conversation by reviewing these seven steps:

  1. Know your deal breakers. Every organization should have standards of conduct that indicate what is acceptable. Some standards are hard-and-fast rules; others may evolve over time. Understand which is which before engaging in a value conflict discussion.
  2. Reach out and connect directly with your employee. Begin by letting them know you want to talk with them to better understand what is taking place and how it affects them.
  3. Tell your employee they matter. Let your team member know they are important to you and the organization. Don't assume they know how you feel.
  4. Be curious. Ask questions from a place of curiosity to better understand your employee's perspective. Ask them about the facts of what is going on and the impact of the value conflict on them, their family and the organization. Give them time to answer your questions and listen without interrupting them.
  5. Remind yourself not to get defensive or upset. Stay focused on understanding your employee's values, even if they do not align with yours or those of the organization. Remain calm and respectful.
  6. Express your appreciation. Let your team member know that you appreciate them for taking the time to engage in this important conversion. Offer compassion for their situation and gratitude for helping you understand the situation and its impact.
  7. Don't immediately decide how to proceed. Think through the value conflict, consult with others in the company and seek legal advice if necessary.

Not every value conflict can be resolved

When I was growing up, my father was a successful salesman in the lighting industry. Arnold Roberts took pride in his work and valued his relationships with his long-time customers and fellow salespeople. He believed relationships should be built on trust. 

He worked for the same company for years, steadily building his career. When a large corporation acquired that company, he was promoted to national sales manager. 

Initially, he was excited to be promoted to a leadership position. But it didn't last. 

My father was told to "crack the whip" with his sales team and informed that "no one's job is safe". The new leadership told him to stop being friends with his customers and sales team.

The new management was focused entirely on the bottom line, with no regard for the relationships and trust my father had fostered over the years. Instead, they directed him to make sure no customer left the showroom floor until they signed a new deal. 

My father refused. 

His sales team was performing well, and their numbers consistently increased. He knew it was better to encourage and support his team than to pressure them and create a hostile work environment that would diminish performance.

He also knew it was better to partner with his customers to solve their problems and not see them as nothing more than walking wallets.  

He was fired less than one year after his promotion. 

My father valued relationships; the company valued sales quotas. My father believed that relationships should be built on trust; the company believed in taking whatever action was necessary to make the deal.

My father's approach was relational; the company's approach was transactional. There was no room for compromise.

My father took great pride in his work and was devastated by the loss of his job. But he never regretted his decision to speak up against the company's decision to prioritize profit over people. And he never regretted his decision not to compromise his values. 

Regardless of your role in the company, it's essential to address all conflicts respectfully. When it comes to value conflicts, you must be sensitive to the situation and open to listening without judgment.

Only then can you determine whether there's room for compromise or if separation is the only sustainable path forward.

 

Inc

The Nigeria Union of Petroleum and Natural Gas Workers (NUPENG) has instructed its members to join the indefinite nationwide strike starting Monday, as directed by labor unions. Afolabi Olawale, NUPENG’s general secretary, confirmed the union's commitment to full compliance with this directive in a statement on Saturday.

On May 31, the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) and the Trade Union Congress of Nigeria (TUC) announced the strike, set to begin on June 3, in response to the federal government’s refusal to raise the minimum wage above the N60,000 offered.

Afolabi expressed NUPENG's concern over the federal government’s "insensitive attitude" towards negotiating a new minimum wage for Nigerian workers, highlighting the adverse impact of the government's socio-economic policies on working people.

“Our union leaders at all levels—from units to zones and branches—should immediately initiate all necessary processes to ensure full compliance with this directive,” Afolabi stated.

Additionally, the National Union of Electricity Employees (NUEE) announced it is mobilizing its members to participate in the strike as per the NLC and TUC’s directive. Dominic Igwebike, NUEE's acting general secretary, issued the directive to members on Saturday.

Igwebike emphasized that the strike is crucial due to unresolved negotiations on the minimum wage, the hike in electricity tariffs, and the categorization of Nigeria’s electricity consumers into bands. He instructed all national, state, and chapter executives to mobilize members to ensure full compliance and prompt government action.

Nigeria's Dangote refinery, situated near Lagos, has exported its first jet fuel cargo to Europe, according to an S&P Global Insights report. BP is transporting the jet fuel to Rotterdam, following a tender of 120,000 metric tonnes offered at the end of May. Four market sources confirmed the shipment, S&P Global Insights reported.

The Doric Breeze vessel loaded 45,000 metric tonnes of jet fuel from Lekki on May 27, marking BP's inaugural cargo from Dangote, as per S&P Global Commodities at Sea data. Additionally, Cepsa, a Spanish refiner, secured part of the tender and is expected to deliver supplies to Europe soon, traders noted.

Representatives from BP and Cepsa were unavailable for comment, but a Dangote spokesperson confirmed the refinery's compliance with European jet A1 standards since April. This inaugural European shipment underscores the expanding reach of the 650,000 barrels per day Dangote refinery, which is quickly ramping up operations and altering West African trade dynamics.

Since April 8, Dangote has exported six jet fuel and kerosene cargoes to Senegal, Togo, and Ghana, according to CAS data. BP is expected to continue supplying jet fuel to West Africa from the Dangote refinery, sources indicated.

European traders have expressed concerns that the new jet fuel supply from Nigeria could exacerbate the existing oversupply in the market. As of May 29, CIF Northwest European jet fuel cargoes were trading at a premium of $52 per metric tonne to the front-month ICE LSGO contract, down $3.25 on the day and $11.25 on the week, according to Platts assessments.

The increased supply has closed the arbitrage window from the Persian Gulf, with the CIF NWE June and July contracts entering a contango of minus $1.50 per metric tonne on May 29. This contango, indicating market weakness, was last seen lower on April 25, when the second-month contract was at a $1.75 premium to the front-month, Platts data showed.

Dangote's export portfolio is poised for changes as the refinery continues to ramp up operations. To date, it has exported naphtha, fuel oil, and gasoil to markets in Europe, Africa, and Asia. However, naphtha exports may soon be reduced to prepare for gasoline production, a Dangote representative told Commodity Insights on May 20.

Dangote has been exporting about four naphtha cargoes per month to Europe since April. These volumes are expected to decrease as domestic supplies are redirected for gasoline blending, once the refinery's fluid catalytic cracker is operational. Dangote now projects its first gasoline supplies to begin in June, revised from an earlier May deadline. The refinery also aims to produce ultra-low sulphur diesel for export to Europe by the third quarter, as stated in April.

Commodity Insights analysts predict that gasoline supplies from the refinery will commence no earlier than the third quarter, with steady-state utilisation expected around 2027. At steady-state, Dangote is anticipated to produce 9% jet fuel, or about 45,000 barrels per day at 80% utilisation. Early supplies could make Nigeria a net exporter of jet fuel by the fourth quarter of 2024.

The Dangote refinery and petrochemical complex in the Lekki Free Zone near Lagos is the world's largest single-train facility, producing Euro-V quality petrol, diesel, jet fuel, and polypropylene. At full capacity, the refinery will double Nigeria's refining capacity and help meet the growing demand for fuels, providing significant cost and dollar savings.

Mediators urge Israel and Hamas to finalise Biden's Gaza peace plan

Gaza conflict mediators on Saturday urged Israel and Hamas to finalise a ceasefire and hostage release deal outlined by U.S. President Joe Biden that they said would bring immediate relief to people in Gaza and to the hostages and their families.

Israel has said there will be no formal end to the war as long as Hamas retains power, raising questions of timing and interpretation over the truce offer, which has been provisionally welcomed by the Palestinian faction.

Biden said on Friday that Israel had proposed a deal involving an initial six-week ceasefire with a partial Israeli military withdrawal and the release of some hostages while "a permanent end to hostilities" is negotiated through mediators.

The U.S., Egypt and Qatar have been seeking for months to mediate an end to the war, but a deal has proven elusive.

The proposal, Biden said, also "creates a better 'day after' in Gaza without Hamas in power". He did not elaborate on how that might be achieved. The Iranian-backed Islamist group has given no indication it might step aside or disarm voluntarily.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office said on Saturday any notion that Israel would agree a permanent ceasefire before "the destruction of Hamas' military and governing capabilities" was "a non-starter".

Two members of his coalition also threatened to withdraw from the government if he went ahead with a deal that ended the war without destroying Hamas.

Hamas said on Friday it was ready to engage "positively and in a constructive manner". But senior official Mahmoud Mardawi told Qatari television it had not yet received details of the proposal.

"No agreement can be reached before the demand for the withdrawal of the occupation army and a ceasefire is met," he said. Hamas remains committed to Israel's destruction.

Israel has been willing only to suspend the war in exchange for hostages, saying it would resume the campaign to eliminate the Hamas threat. Hamas wants any deal to entail concrete Israeli moves to end the war, such as a full troop withdrawal.

A senior Biden administration official, asked about a potential rift in the U.S. and Israeli viewpoints on the future of Hamas, suggested this may be open to interpretation and would come down to future Egyptian and Qatari sway over the movement.

"I have no doubt that the deal will be characterised by Israel and be characterised by Hamas," the official told reporters.

"And I think the arrangements and some of the day-after planning, you know, helps ensure that — that Hamas’s military capacity to regenerate in a way that can threaten Israel would be very much foreclosed under this arrangement and, I think the president said in his speech, ensuring that Hamas cannot rearm."

MONTHS OF WAR

The war began on Oct. 7 when Hamas-led Palestinian fighters rampaged into southern Israel from Gaza, killing more than 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and seizing more than 250 as hostages, according to Israeli tallies.

Israel's ground and air campaign in Gaza has left the territory in ruins, led to widespread starvation, and killed more than 36,000 people, according to Palestinian health authorities, who say most of the dead are civilians. More than 290 Israeli soldiers have been killed since the Gaza invasion.

An Israeli public once solidly behind the war is showing signs of fatigue amid worry for the fate of the hostages.

Benny Gantz, a centrist ex-general who joined Netanyahu in an emergency coalition, has threatened to bolt next week if the prime minister does not form a Gaza day-after plan with him.

But in a possible sign that that could be deferred, Gantz on Saturday voiced appreciation for Biden and called for the Israeli war cabinet to be convened "to decide the next steps".

On Wednesday, Netanyahu's National Security Adviser Tzachi Hanegbi said he expected the war to continue for the rest of 2024, at least.

In the United States, Israel's main ally, the extent of civilian suffering in Gaza has put pressure on Biden, who hopes to win a second presidential term in the November election.

In his speech on Friday, Biden called on Israel's leadership to resist pressure from those in the country who wanted the war to go on "indefinitely".

Netanyahu could have a chance to rebut in Washington soon. His office said he had accepted an invitation to address both houses of Congress by top lawmakers - which would make him the first foreign leader to make such an appearance four times.

Netanyahu said he felt honoured and would use the opportunity to tell "the representatives of the American people and the entire world the truth about our righteous war against those who seek our destruction".

Opposition leader Yair Lapid urged Netanyahu to agree a hostages and ceasefire deal, saying his party would support it even if ultranationalist factions in the governing religious-rightist coalition rebelled. Lapid's pledge meant a deal would likely pass in parliament.

"The government of Israel cannot ignore President Biden's consequential speech. There is a deal on the table and it should be made," Lapid said on social media.

 

Reuters

WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Russia pounds Ukraine's energy sector, Kyiv urges more air defence assistance

Russia launched a barrage of missiles and drones on Saturday that damaged energy facilities and critical infrastructure across Ukraine, injuring at least four people, and prompting President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to issue a fresh plea for more air defence assistance.

The sixth major Russian air attack on the Ukrainian power sector since March damaged energy facilities in the east, centre, and west, the national grid operator Ukrenergo said.

Ukraine's air force said it shot down 35 of 53 Russian missiles and 46 of 47 attack drones used for the strikes, which pile more pressure on Ukraine's hobbled energy system as the war with Russia is in its third year.

"Russia's main goal is to normalize terror, to use the lack of sufficient air defence and determination of Ukraine's partners," Zelenskiy said on the Telegram messaging app.

"Partners know exactly what is needed. Additional "Patriots" and other modern air defence systems for Ukraine. To accelerate and expand F-16 deliveries to Ukraine. To provide our soldiers with all the necessary capabilities."

So far this year, Ukraine has found itself on the back foot as it faced delays in military aid from the United States, intensified attacks on its infrastructure and Moscow’s push to expand the frontline, 27 months after its full-scale invasion.

RENEWED ATTACKS ON POWER SECTOR

On Saturday, Russian forces attacked energy facilities in the eastern Donetsk region, southeastern Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk regions, central Kyrovohrad region and Ivano-Frankivsk region in the west, the energy ministry said.

Air alerts lasted for more than three hours across the regions with many people rushing for shelters in the middle of the night.

Lviv regional governor Maksym Kozytskyi said four people were injured and three critical infrastructure facilities were hit in the region on Ukraine's border with Poland. He gave no further details on the facilities.

DTEK, Ukraine's largest private energy-generating company, said its two thermal power plants had been hit and equipment "seriously damaged".

Russia’s defence ministry has said it is striking Ukraine’s military-industrial complex and energy facilities in retaliation for Kyiv’s strikes on Russian energy facilities.

Ukraine has stepped up drone attacks on Russian oil facilities this year, trying to find a pressure point against the Kremlin whose forces are slowly advancing in the eastern Donbas region and have opened a new front in the Kharkiv region in the northeast.

Russia pounded the Ukrainian energy system in the first winter of the war, and renewed its assault on the grid in March as Ukraine was running low on stocks of Western air defence missiles.

Ukrainian officials have said the Western aid has started to arrive but Russian bombardments over the past two months knocked out the bulk of the thermal and hydropower generation, caused blackouts, and pushed electricity imports to record highs.

The government was forced to nearly double consumer electricity tariffs to be able to fund massive repairs. It plans record electricity imports of about 27 megawatt hours (Mwh) for Saturday.

 

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

Huge anti-war rally in NATO member’s capital

Hundreds of thousands participated in the “peace march” in Hungary’s capital Budapest on Saturday, denouncing the EU’s policy of escalating tensions with Russia. The event culminated with a speech by Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who accused Brussels of bringing Europe closer to a global conflict. 

The demonstrators marched from the iconic Chain Bridge to Margaret Island on the Danube River.

Many carried national flags and chanted pacifist slogans, with some holding signs reading “No war” and “Give us peace, Lord.” 

“Never before have so many people lined up for peace. We are the biggest peace corps, the largest peacekeeping force in Europe,” the prime minister said, as quoted by Reuters. “Europe must be prevented from rushing into war, into its own destruction.”

Orban said that his country must draw lessons from the devastation it went through the darkest times of the 20th century. “In the two world wars, the Hungarians lost 1.5 million lives, and with them – their future children and grandchildren,” Orban told the crowd. “I’m saying this slowly so that Brussels would understand: we will not go to war. We will not go to the East for a third time, we will not go to the Russian front again.”

Orban urged everyone to support the “pro-peace and pro-sovereignty”agenda of the ruling Fidesz party in the European Parliament election next week. “Do we want to shed Hungarian blood for Ukraine? No, we don’t,” he said.

The pro-war [forces] have gone beyond common sense by wanting to defeat Russia as they tried to do during the First World War and the Second World war.

Since the start of Russia’s military operation in Ukraine in February 2022, Orban has repeatedly accused the EU leadership in Brussels of dangerous brinkmanship with Moscow and warned that the European bloc must not allow itself to be dragged into a full-blown war.

Budapest has refused to provide any military aid to Ukraine and threatened to veto financial assistance to Kiev. Orban heavily criticized the economic sanctions imposed on Moscow by the EU, arguing that the bloc had “shot itself in the lungs” by undermining trade and its own energy supply.

 

Reuters/RT

In Africa, when a man loses his virility, he is subject of scorn, ridicule and disdain. Male impotence or infertility is not only disdained but tabooed. In a continent where child-making is almost an obsession, Africa couched a number of hurtful epithets for one who loses his virile member. Failure to get this critical member standing up leaves sour overtones of frustration, pain, social ostracism, stigma, marital instability, discomfiture and even sometimes, suicide. 

Among the Yoruba, virility victims are named OkoboThe rural Shona tribe in Mhondoro-Ngezi area of Zimbabwe could not stand the virility challenge. To ward off this evil spirit from their tribe, they deployed socio-cultural intervention strategies to ward it off. To do this, they devised indigenous systems of monitoring signs of impotence at infancy, puberty and even after marriage.

Moyo Stanzia of the University of Zimbabwe, Harare, in her “Indigenous knowledge systems and attitudes towards male infertility in Mhondoro-Ngezi, Zimbabwe” (Culture, Health & Sexuality, 2013 Vol. 15, No. 6, 667–679) attempted a study of the Okobo in this Zimbabwean village. One of her informant interviewees, 69-year old Ruzvidzo, volunteered his experience thus: “Traditionally, our uncles and grandfathers would take us away from home to a river with clear water. We were forced to masturbate and ejaculate our sperms in the clear water, one after the other. This was done in order to test the quality of sperms. It was understood that fertile sperms would sink in the water. However, if the sperms floated, it meant that the individual was weak and could be infertile – a problem regarded as requiring strategic intervention.”

Ousmane Sembene’s XALA (1975) film, considered one of the most successful films by the Senegalese writer and filmmaker, also explored the thematic preoccupation with the Okobo. Sembene uses sexual zero virility as metaphor. Situated among Black Africa's growing middle class of Senegal, Sembene weaves their challenge into the projection that they are doomed to lose their power unless they delink the Western world and identify with Africa and its masses. The film’s protagonist, El Hadji Abdoukader Beye, a successful middle-aged polygamous businessman, is preparing to take a third wife. On his wedding night, he suddenly discovers he cannot get his member up. Attributing this to a spell cast on him, he consults witch doctors. El Hadji’s Senegalese society ties social prestige to status symbol, which collectively speaks to ability to show manhood. This means satisfying one’s wives sexually and economically. Zero virility leads to El-Hadji being expelled from the Chamber of Commerce and confiscation of his most-prized possessions. He finds out that a Dakar beggar he cheated on several years back laced him with the spell. The beggar agrees to remove the spell only if he strips naked and he (the beggar) and his friends spit on him. 

In a piece I wrote which tangentially discussed male virility, (Atiku Abubakar and the sexual history of the Nigerian presidencyFebruary 6, 2022) I related how rumours once had it that Zimbabwean former Prime Minister and presidential candidate, Morgan Tsvangirai, suffered “a nasty blow from below,” euphemism for zero virility. The news spread like bushfire. At about the same time, the virility-restoring prowess of Emmanuel Makandiwa, a ‘miracle-working’ Pentecostal prophet, froze the stratosphere like snowflakes in winter. Estranged wife of Tsvangirai, Elizabeth Macheka, had lit the fire. In an interview she granted The Herald, entitled, Why I ditched Tsvangirai: Wife, Macheka said she separated from Tsvangirai due to ‘sensitive personal issues’ and that this was known to her and Tsvangirai alone and only the two of them could resolve it.

For a Zimbabwean public that salivated riveting gossips and rumours in high and low places, Macheka’s statement was the confirmation it needed for a high-quality rumour. In whooshing whispers and mouth-to-ear transmission, the former prime minister was said to have been afflicted by an “under-neath,” below-the-trousers problem of ‘erectile dysfunctional disorder.’ The Herald did not also help matters. It immediately tagged what Macheka dubbed ‘sensitive personal issues’ as ‘a medical one.’ Thereafter, Fungai Machirori, Zimbabwean journalist and blogger, did a salacious piece on the issue which she entitled, Of Penises, Politics and Pentecostalism in Zimbabwe, an essay which she called an “exposé of trouble in the un-paradise that is Tsvangirai’s love life’’

Among the Yoruba, the Okobo is the butt of crude jokes. He is also called the Akura, one whose member had died. One of Akura’s characteristics is hyperactivity. If a man, like one on steroids, does the job of ten people at a go, Yoruba wonder if he is an Akura. When there is trust deficit between two people, and every action becomes suspicious, my people find a way to drag the Okobo into the conversation. So, they say, what we demanded of the sexually sterile is to penetrate but he boasts that, in a twinkle of an eye, he could make a thread penetrate 200 needles in the dark. In its rawest form, they render this as,nkan ti won ni ki Okobo bo, ko bo; igba abere l’olohun le bo l’okun.” In a chapter I wrote in the book, Indigenous African Popular Music, Vol 1 edited by Biodun Salawu and Israel Fadipe, (Palgrave Macmillan, 2022) which I entitled, “Corpus of prophecy, philosophy and crusading in Ayinla Omowura’s music,” I explored the Okobo theme in the music of the late Yoruba Apala musician. In one of his vinyl, while trying to denounce charges of piracy of songs leveled against him by his colleague musicians, Ayinla magisterially replied that the mockery of a man afflicted by the venereal disease, gonorrhea does not lie in the mouth of the sexually sterile. Only a virile man can contract gonorrhea. He sang, “abosi alatosi ko si l’owo okobo…

Last Wednesday, the rumour became real. President Bola Tinubu signed into law the bill to revert Nigeria to its old national anthem. By the way, even Tinubu’s supporters literally clothed themselves in sackcloth and ashes last week. They were probably reinventing the old Jewish response to devastating news concerning their race. It is the Jewish practice of showing intense grief and distress. The Tinubu supporters’ valiant war hero, who they boasted that, at each of his dancing steps while returning from a war of conquest as eight-year governor of Lagos State, he the crowd dashed him slaves (ajogb’eru), to their chagrin, now dances and all he gets is miserable cornmeal (ajogb’eko). As our elders say that, to find out how melodious or sour the rhythm of the Bata drum is, we should ask the Sango deity devotee whose god is the totem of the Bata drum. So, opinion samplers, recognizing that Nigerians are the Sango devotee and Tinubu, the Bata drummer, approached the common people to rate the melody of Tinubu’s one year drumming. The opinion moulders didn’t go to IMF. Nor to the Nigerian elite who, like bedbugs, drain quality blood from the Nigerian body.

One of such opinion samplers was Africa Polling Institute (API). It did a Citizens Assessment Report of Tinubu’s one year as president. Its report was that, there was stark reality of hunger, poverty and mass dissatisfaction. 84% of people overwhelmingly expressed profound sadness with the Tinubu presidency, 81% felt Nigeria under him is headed in the wrong direction, 36% identified hunger, 28% inability to meet basic needs, 13% riled against unemployment, 9% insecurity and 5% poor electricity as the bane of his government. All in all, they were agreed that the last one year has been one of misery, pain, lies and grandstanding. In earlier pieces I did, I alerted Nigerians that some qualities were exclusive preserves of the typical Lagos Boy. He is bold and brash, rather than being courageous; he is dismissive of others’ feelings and believes he can wangle his way through the toughest of all calamities by deploying subterfuge.

In the midst of a plethora of Nigerian people’s agony, last Sunday, the Lagos Boy flew into Lagos. It was the flag-off ceremony of the highly demonized Lagos-Calabar coastal highway. Many commentators have concluded that, in the N15trillion road construction, you do not have to drill too deep down to see an army of maggots wriggling their milk-coloured bodies to the Bata drum being beaten by Tinubu and his Gilbert Chagoury business associate contractor. Rather than join the Nigerians in this sackcloth and ashes week, that Sunday, Tinubu dismissively looked into the eye of the camera and pronounced, “Today is my day to boast. My bragging day. Today, I hold the bragging right.” Now, I pray thee – apologies to students of biblical Old Testament – which leader brags when his people go to bed hungry?

The president then capped this contempt for the longsuffering people of Nigeria with the signing of the National Anthem Bill. To the people, ipso facto, he instantly became that proverbial Okobo who boasted that he could insert thread into 200 needles in the dark. On the streets of Nigeria, the people’s disgust with Tinubu’s hyperactivity and the supersonic speed with which he signed the bill made him that sterile man. Against the general wish that he should consummate the relationship with Nigerians, President Okobo boasted that he could get thread penetrate the eye of the needle.

Let’s be clear, national anthems are a people’s property. They keep the goals of heroes alive. this is done by transmitting culture and history to new generations, as well as establishing a close connection with the people’s ancestors. Anthems espouse passion, look into the people’s past and rally them into the future. It is a people’s identity symbol unique to them, specifies their way of life, their culture and worldview. Anthems also create bonds, and for citizens, they reinforce national goals. To some scholars, anthems even do more. They serve to embody collective memories of heroes who died to have a nation and the values they left behind. The wordings of anthems are carefully and emotionally constructed in such a way as to ensure that they can boost collective identification of a country’s self-identity, national history, values, bloody memory of war, heroism and victory. It could be memories of colonization or (de)coloniality but they clearly distinguish one nation from another.

You can know what makes a people thick by looking at the lyrics, rhythms and themes of their anthems. Anthems define the core values and convictions of a people. Adopted at independence in 1960, Nigeria’s first anthem, which Tinubu just legislated back to recognition, has become a subject of high national rage. Written by Lillian Jean Williams in 1959 and composed by Frances Berda, the anthem, which began with “Nigeria, we hail thee,” was replaced in 1978 by another that was themed around patriotism. Having its verse begun with “Arise, O Compatriots,” this 1978 anthem’s music was said to have been composed by Benedict Elide Odiase, director of music of the Nigerian Police Band.

Historically, national anthems began in 14th century Britain. Netherlands is reputed with the oldest anthem composed in 1568. Its music was from a popular French tune. Those who composed Britain’s “God Save the Queen/King” and Russia’s “God saves the Czar” in 1744 and 1745 respectively were not known because those compositions were regarded as sacred.

While the Nigerian independence was a collective fight against Britain for freedom so that the people’s customs, rituals and the like could survive, alongside their diverse tribes, cultures, languages, and religious groups, “Nigeria we hail thee” anthem reflects this. Many people have however deplored the derogative reference to Nigerians as “natives” in that anthem. They claim that, in the year 2024, what Nigeria needs most is the patriotism of the “Arise o compatriots” and not tribe and tongues that differ. This, in the people’s submission, has, in 64 years of independence, become a given. While both anthems are important bonding icons, one mirrors political sovereignty than the other. The 1959 anthem, written by a Briton, does not rally citizens for the task of showing loyalty to the state. This is a trait that has disappeared among Nigerians. The anthem however underscores servile abidance. All over the world, governments devise means through which citizens can show loyalty and patriotism to the state. Methinks, if patriotism is what the Tinubu government demands of Nigerians, there was no need to do away with “Arise o compatriots.”

The stark reality that confronts Nigerians is that, successive leaders have made the country such that, rather than hail Nigeria, the country is wailed, according to a poet, “for (Nigeria’s) fallen fences eaten by termites and (her) lifeblood sucked dry” by politicians and soldiers. It is a country in the hands of embezzlers of national patrimony, corrupt officials and a post-independent Nigerian state where endemic poverty, starvation, fear of disintegration, false and feigned freedom from colonialists, reign.

In the words of famous Oyo state broadcaster, Edmund Obilo, it is not the national anthem that makes a nation great. It is the integrity, vision and selflessness of its leadership. A corrupt, wicked and uninspiring leadership cannot conjure patriotism, no matter how eloquent the lyrics of its anthem. Let Tinubu and his economic henchmen not continue on this path of the Okobo by leaving leprosy and seeking to cure eczema. Let them make life livable for the people; embody the values of transparency, accountability and justice, in the words of the inimitable broadcaster. Nigerians cannot see these values of leadership anywhere in Aso Rock. They see a bizarre anthem reversal as the usual antic of a fiddling Nero in a burning Nigeria.

 

Aso Rock inside Kudeti River

The poor governance of the last one year is apparently getting at President Bola Tinubu. He needs our collective pity. It is making him depressed, enough to enter into what lawyers call forum-shopping. Today, Aso Rock is clutching at straws. Its case is akin to that of the proverbial man inside raging waters which have overwhelmed him. The tidal wave is angry and is threatening to envelope the non-initiate, the Ogberi who jumped into the Kudeti River assuming it was a mere steady flow of run-off water. To overcome the anger of Kudeti, Tinubu is throwing tantrums, accusations and all-what-ought-nots as straws to salvage his drowning.

Last Thursday, the president met Northern leaders, the leadership of the Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF) at the Presidential Villa, Abuja. As things later turned out, the meeting was aimed at concretizing, in the minds of Nigerians, the suit instituted by the Federal Government against the 36 state governors at the Supreme Court. Specifically, Tinubu wanted the leaders to pressurize their state governors to account for their responsibilities. Fantastic. Like a grumpy school boy boxed to a corner, the president told the Northern elders that, while he was doing his utmost to raise the nation’s revenue, sub-national governments must make the needs of the locals the centerpiece of their governance.

“We are running a constitutional democracy. I will appeal to you to summon the governors. I am doing my very best to enhance the revenue base of the country. They must equally be sympathetic, and they must urgently consider the needs of the local people. People reside in the local communities. That is where they work, farm, and live. If the local governments are not effective in delivering services; as leaders, we must not hang on to the numbers. We have 774 local government areas, but are they truly effective? Do they solve problems for Nigerians? Do they coordinate development programming with the state and federal governments?” he asked, throwing rhetoric into the debate.

The president also asked for accountability in the performance of the 774 local governments. “Maybe we should look at recalibrating. What was good four years ago may not be good today. When we want the votes, we go to the locals; when we get the votes, we move to and focus on Abuja,” he said pleadingly.

Since 1999, Nigerians have confronted sub-national governments who they accuse of performing beneath their optimal level. They also, in fact, accuse them of tampering with the stupendous cash that goes into their tills. Heads of those governments have even been jailed for filching their people’s patrimony. So, Tinubu’s cry-of-the-matricidal-wife (ekun ap’okoje) is not novel.

Same last week, the FG instituted a legal action against the 36 governors at the Supreme Court. In it, it alleged misconduct in the administration of Local Government Areas. Filed by the Attorney General of the Federation (AGF) and Minister of Justice, Lateef Fagbemi, the suit seeks full autonomy for all local government areas in the country. It also specifically prayed the court to issue an order prohibiting governors from embarking on unilateral, arbitrary and unlawful dissolution of democratically elected local government leaders. In the same vein, it asks for an order that will permit funds standing to the credits of local governments to be directly channeled to them from the federation account. Another request was for the Supreme Court to stop the governors from constituting caretaker committees to run the affairs of local governments because this is against the constitutionally recognized and guaranteed democratic system.

On the surface, we must commend this federal administration for this yeoman role. It goes without saying that governors are alleged to have literally asphyxiated the 774 councils. As an Ogun State former council chairman confessed recently, council bosses are even, in some cases, made to swear oaths to the various vindictive deities never to reveal the dirty details of governors’ heists.

However, we should tarry awhile and look at the intendments of the Lagos Boy. It should interest us that Tinubu, on this road to Tarsus, has morphed from Saul to Paul. This was the same man who fought Olusegun Obasanjo to the hilt in defending his rights to a sizeable portion of the patrimony of the local governments of Lagos State. When such a man suddenly becomes an apostate of that conviction, society should be wary of him. My major hunch is that the Lagos Boy wants to decimate the 36 state governors, elevate local governments and build a new outpost of command for himself. His gambit could be to castrate the stiff-necked states, project and promote the Superman in his conjured 774 new pseudo-centres of power. With humongous money coming to the councils, the 774 LGs would be his battle axe to fight the governors. More importantly, the councils would be vulnerable to federal blackmail. Whatever the newly curated Leviathan asks the new kids on the block to do, including becoming his poster-boys for the 2027 election, they will glibly do. Borrowing from that ancient proverbial quip, the Osanyin deity will thus become the slave.

It goes without saying that from 1999 to date, all Nigerian presidents have had issues with governors and had sought one way or the other to cut them to size over the issue of financial autonomy of local councils. We ordinarily should clap for a president who is poised to use the law to neutralize our enemy governors who have wasted our sub-national funds without any visible impacts. But, let us tarry awhile and ask ourselves how safe our cherished democratic government will be after the conquest of Napoleon. Does Napoleon, the Leviathan, have the pedigree of a people’s fight as the one he just entered into, without self-motive? Lest it turn out to be the proverbial case of the Iwofa who was mandated to take a thirsty horse to the riverside. When this happens, the Yoruba, in their infinite wisdom, say money (the Iwofa) is going after money (the horse). The Iwofa is actually not equivalent to slavery. It is a system of pawnship or peonage, otherwise known as debt-slavery. Extracted from two Yoruba words, iwo (act of entering into) and efa (six), in traditional Yoruba society, when a person owes money, he could volunteer his son as an Iwofa, 'a recurrent six-day service' agreement with the person he owes, to cancel out the debt.

In this rash race to demonize the sub-national governments and their heads and hand the states and local governments over to the Leviathan, we must remember that this cherished object we call democracy is incompatible with the rule of one man. Adolf Hitler began from same harmlessness, you remember?

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