• With inflation nearing 30% and its currency hitting an all-time low, Nigeria is facing one of its worst economic crises in years.
• The latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics on Thursday showed that the headline consumer price index (CPI) rose to 29.9% year-on-year in January, its highest level since 1996.
• The surging cost of living and economic hardship sparked protests across the country over the weekend.

With annual inflation nearing 30% and a currency in freefall, Nigeria is facing one of its worst economic crises in years, provoking nationwide outrage and protests.

The Nigerian naira hit a new all-time low against the U.S. dollar on both the official and parallel foreign exchange markets on Monday, sliding to almost 1,600 against the greenback on the official market from around 900 at the start of the year.

President Bola Tinubu announced Tuesday that the federal government plans to raise at least $10 billion to boost foreign exchange liquidity and stabilize the naira, according to multiple local media reports.

The currency is down around 70% since May 2023 when Tinubu took office, inheriting a struggling economy and promising a raft of reforms aimed at steadying the ship.

In a bid to fix the beleaguered economy and attract international investment, Tinubu unified Nigeria's multiple exchange rates and enabled market forces to set the exchange rate, sending the currency plunging. In January, the market regulator also changed how it calculates the currency's closing rate, resulting in another de facto devaluation.

Years of foreign exchange controls have also generated enormous pent-up demand for U.S. dollars at a time when overseas investment and crude oil exports have declined.

"The weakened exchange rate should increase imported inflation, which will exacerbate price pressures in Nigeria," Pieter Scribante, senior political economist at Oxford Economics, said in a note Friday.

The country is Africa's largest economy and has a population of more than 210 million people, but relies heavily on imports to meet the needs of its rapidly growing population.

"Shrinking disposable incomes and worsening cost-of-living pressures should remain concerns throughout 2024, further stifling consumer spending and private sector growth," Scribante added.

Inflation, meanwhile, continues to soar, with the headline consumer price index hitting 29.9% year-on-year in January, its highest level since 1996. The increase is being driven by a persistent rise in food prices which jumped by 35.4% last month compared to the year before.

The surging cost of living and economic hardship prompted protests across the country over the weekend. The plummeting currency has added to the negative impact of government reforms such as the removal of gas subsidies, which tripled gas prices.

Tinubu said in late July that the government had already saved more than 1 trillion naira ($666.4 million) from removing the subsidies, which it will redirect into infrastructure investment.

Alongside soaring inflation and a plunging currency, Nigeria is also battling record levels of government debt, high unemployment, power shortages and declining oil production — its main export. These economic pressures are compounded by violence and insecurity in many rural areas.

"Excess market liquidity, exchange rate pressures, and food and fuel shortages threaten price stability, while inflation risks rising out of the government's control," Oxford Economics' Scribante added.

"Robust import demand could force the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to reimpose import bans and FX restrictions to lessen the burden on the balance of payments. This could exacerbate domestic product shortages and increase inflation further."

Inflation is expected to peak at nearly 33% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2024, according to Oxford Economics, and could stay higher for longer given the plethora of economic risks ahead.

"Furthermore, rising inflation and increased hawkishness by the CBN indicate that the policy rate could be raised this quarter," Scribante said. The policy rate currently sits at 18.75%.

"We expect a combined 200 bps in rate hikes at the next two MPC meetings, scheduled for end-February and end-March this year; however, we think that more hikes are needed to stem rising inflation," Scribante added.

Jason Tuvey, deputy chief emerging markets economist at Capital Economics, sees the CBN opting for a bigger interest rate bazooka when policymakers meet on Feb. 26 and 27.

"The meeting will be a key test of whether the policy shift under Tinubu is truly regaining some momentum," Tuvey said in a note Thursday.

"We expect that the MPC will try to restore some of its inflation-fighting credibility by delivering a large interest rate of 400bp, to 22.75%."

CNBC

The United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) says it is reviewing its local food procurement and will buy food in Nigeria only in stable market conditions.

According to a statement on Wednesday by the international organisation, the decision was made amid rising inflation and high food prices exacerbated by market speculation in Nigeria.

On February 15, 2024, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported food inflation rate in January this year was 35.41 percent on a year-on-year basis.

This is 11.1 percent points higher compared to 24.32 percent rate recorded in January 2023.

According to the bureau, the rise in food inflation was caused by increases in prices of bread and cereals, oil and fat, potatoes, yam and other tubers, fish, meat, and fruit.

WFP said it “noted high inflation rates, and food price rises,” during a monitoring mission in Borno, Yobe, and Kano states.

According to the organisation, this presents significant challenges for Nigerians, especially for those who are displaced, unable to cultivate, and reliant on markets for food.

“High rates of inflation and soaring market prices have reduced the purchasing power of many Nigerian families, especially those in the conflict-affected Northeast Nigeria,” WFP said.

‘4.4 MILLION NIGERIANS WILL NEED FOOD ASSISTANCE IN JUNE-AUGUST’

“The November 2023 Cadre Harmonisé food security analysis projected that up to 4.4 million people in the northeast states of Borno, Adamawa and Yobe will require food assistance during the June-August 2024 lean season, with over 1 million people facing emergency levels of hunger (IPC/CH phase 4).

“In 2024, WFP is planning to reach 1.1 million vulnerable people with food and nutrition assistance in Nigeria. In the June–August lean season, when hunger is most acute, WFP will increase its support to reach 1.6 million people a month – dependent on available funding.”

David Stevenson, WFP’s country director and representative in Nigeria, said the organisation is aware of traders holding food in their warehouses pretending it is WFP’s.

“This is inaccurate as WFP has its limited stock only available to continue supporting the most vulnerable Nigerians with critical assistance,” he said. 

“We are undertaking a comprehensive review of our local food procurement. WFP will purchase food in Nigeria only when the market conditions are stable for all.”

Meanwhile, President Bola Tinubu, on February 15, 2024, said he would not establish a price control board or approve the importation of food as measures to address the economic hardship in the country.

Tinubu made this known after Vice-President Kashim Shettima, on February 13, said the federal government plans to set up a commodity board to regulate the soaring prices of food in the country.

The Cable

President Bola Tinubu has approved the appointment of Kemi Nanna Nandap as the Comptroller-General of the Nigeria Immigration Service (NIS).

Ajuri Ngelale, presidential spokesman, who announced this in a statement on Wednesday, said the appointment is effective from March 1, 2024.

“Nandap takes over from Mrs. Caroline Wura-Ola Adepoju, whose term in office expires on February 29, 2024.

“Before her appointment as Comptroller-General, Nandap was the Deputy Comptroller-General in charge of the Migration Directorate of the Service.

“The President anticipates that the new Comptroller-General will deepen the ongoing reforms in the service and create a robust mechanism for efficient and dedicated service delivery to Nigerians, as well as strengthen the nation’s security through proactive and effective border security and migration management.”

Daily Trust

Operatives of the Nigeria police have arrested Julius Abure, national chairman of the Labour Party (LP).

Abure was arrested on Wednesday in Benin city alongside Kelly Ogbaloi, the LP chairman in Edo state.

Speaking with journalists after the arrest, Tijani Momoh, spokesperson of the police for Zone 5, said Abure was arrested over a petition in a case of attempted murder, conspiracy to commit dangerous harm.

“I wish to confirm the arrest of the factional chairman of the Labour Party, Julius Abure, and I think three or four others due to a written petition endorsed to the AIG Benin from the office of the inspector-general of police,” Momoh said.

“So based on that petition he was arrested and the investigation is ongoing. He was also in possession of a firearm; a shotgun and three rounds of live ammunition.

“All details will be provided as the investigation continues.”

Momoh said the police did not assault the LP chairman in the process of arresting him.

The police spokesperson said some persons tried to prevent Abure’s arrest, which led to an altercation between them and police operatives.

“Some policemen or some people that were assigned to him tried to prevent the police from carrying out a lawful arrest,” he said.

“The police has powers to carry out lawful arrests and some people tried to prevent the police from doing that.”

Confirming the arrest, Obiora Ifoh, national publicity secretary of the party, said in a statement that Abure was arrested over a protest letter by an expelled member of the party loyal to the Lamidi Apapa-led faction of the party.

“The Labour Party on Tuesday had a very successful delegate election in Benin ahead of the Party Primaries scheduled to hold on Friday. The party chairman only this morning along with party governorship aspirants also kept a scheduled security briefing with the Department of the State Security,” Ifoh said.

“Abure was however arrested after the meeting by a combined team of DSS and Police officers. Abure, Ogbaloi and their aides were also manhandled.

“Effort by some party leaders to have access to the Zone 5 headquarters was turned down due to the huge crowd of party supporters who were expressing their displeasure over the arrest of Abure.

“However, a Police source informed the party officials and other governorship aspirants at the gate of the police headquarters that the arrest was in connection to a protest letter by one of the expelled member of the party loyal to Apapa dissident camp.

“The source also confirmed that the arrest was not unconnected to the ongoing party primary and the possible candidate that will emerge which the state government is vehemently opposed to.

“He informed that the arrest was to frustrate the primary process and possibly interrupt the party’s participation in the governorship election.”

The Cable

Bandits on Tuesday afternoon kidnapped 26 travelers along the Gusau-Sokoto highway. 

The bandits who were said to have blocked the road around Kwaren Kirya village under Maru Local Government Area of Zamfara State abducted all the passengers from a Toyota 18 seater bus and a Volkswagen golf vehicle

A resident of the area who pleaded anonymity for security reasons told Channels Television that the situation is getting worrisome as the bandits now block the road daily.

“As I’m talking to you now, about 30 minutes ago, these bandits have blocked another side of the road. They cleared the passengers of an 18 seater bus and a golf, the situation is worrisome because it has become an everyday thing for these people to be blocking the road,” the source said.

He expressed concern about a village called Balge along the highway which he claimed harbors suspected bandits.

The source appealed to the government to deploy security outposts around the area to checkmate the activities of the criminals

“There is a village when you pass that Kwaren Kirya called Balge, about 80% of settlers in that village are bandits,” the source added.

“There was a time they were chased out of the place but a majority of the people there were bandits. We just need government to help us and station military around the area.”

Police authorities in the state are yet to comment on the latest incident.

CTV

New attempts at Gaza cease-fire are underway, Israel's Gantz says

New attempts are underway to reach a cease-fire deal between Israel and Hamas that could pause the war in Gaza, a member of Israel’s War Cabinet said late Wednesday.

“Initial signs indicate a possibility of moving forward,” said Benny Gantz, a former military chief and defense minister. It’s the first Israeli indication of renewed cease-fire talks since negotiations stalled a week ago.

However, Gantz repeated his pledge that unless Hamas agrees to release the remaining Israeli hostages in Gaza, Israel will launch a ground offensive into the crowded southern city of Rafah during the upcoming Muslim holy month of Ramadan.

Israel’s war in Gaza has driven some 80% of the population of 2.3 million from their homes. Most heeded Israeli orders to flee south and around 1.5 million are packed into Rafah near the border with Egypt.

Israeli strikes across Gaza killed at least 67 Palestinians overnight and into Wednesday, including in areas where civilians have been told to seek refuge.

The war began when Hamas-led militants stormed into southern Israel on Oct. 7, killing some 1,200 people and taking around 250 hostage. About a fourth of some 130 captives still being held are believed to be dead. Israel has laid waste to much of the Palestinian territory in response. Gaza’s Health Ministry estimates more than 29,000 Palestinians have been killed.

Currently:

— Why isn’t desperately needed aid reaching Palestinians in Gaza?

— Attacks on ships and U.S. drones show Yemen’s Houthis can still fight despite U.S.-led airstrikes

— Rape and sexual assault took place during Hamas attack, Israeli association says

— An attempt by U.K. lawmakers to vote on a cease-fire in Gaza descended into chaos

— U.S. says U.N. top court shouldn’t urge Israel to immediately withdraw from Palestinian-claimed lands

Here’s the latest:

U.N. AND HUMANITARIAN LEADERS CALL ON ISRAEL TO ALLOW FOOD AND MEDICINE INTO GAZA

Leaders of major U.N. and humanitarian organizations are calling on Israel to provide food and medicine and facilitate aid deliveries to the 2.3 million Palestinians in conflict-wracked Gaza – and on world leaders “to prevent an even worse catastrophe from happening.”

A statement from the heads of 12 U.N. agencies, six major humanitarian organizations, and the U.N. special investigator on the human rights of displaced people says Israel must fulfil its obligations under international law to protect civilians and the infrastructure they rely on, including homes, hospitals and schools.

The leaders’ call for an immediate cease-fire in Gaza, the immediate release of hostages taken during Hamas’ surprise attack Oct. 7 attack on southern Israel, and security and unimpeded access for humanitarian aid.

To do their work, the statement says the U.N. agencies and aid organizations also need passable roads, neighborhoods cleared of explosive devices, stable communications, a halt to campaigns that seek to discredit their work, and funding for the U.N. agency for Palestinian refugees, UNRWA, which they called “the backbone of the humanitarian operations in Gaza.”

More than 16 nations suspended funding for UNRWA after Israel alleged that 12 of its staffers participated in the Oct. 7 attacks.

The leaders of U.N. and aid organizations warned that further violence in Gaza’s southernmost city of Rafah, where 1.3 million Palestinians have sought refuge, “would cause mass casualties” and “could also deal a death blow to a humanitarian response that is already on its knees.”

Israel’s prime minister says Rafah is a stronghold of Hamas and has vowed to move the offensive there.

JORDAN AND BRITAIN AIR-DROP AID TO HOSPITAL IN NORTHERN GAZA

The U.K. says it and Jordan have air-dropped aid directly to a hospital in northern Gaza.

Britain’s Foreign Office says a Jordanian Air Force plane delivered a U.K.-funded aid shipment to the Tal Al-Hawa Hospital. It says the 4 metric ton shipment was equipped with GPS trackers and included medicine, fuel, and food for hospital patients and staff.

The Jordanian military said this was its 12th aid drop into Gaza during the war. Britain is working with the Jordan Hashemite Charity Organisation to procure and deliver 1 million pounds ($1.3 million) worth of U.K. aid to Gaza.

Foreign Secretary David Cameron said “thousands of patients will benefit and the fuel will enable this vital hospital to continue its life saving work.”

“However, the situation in Gaza is desperate and significantly more aid is needed — and fast,” he said. “We are calling for an immediate humanitarian pause to allow additional aid into Gaza as quickly as possible and bring hostages home.”

United Nations agencies and aid groups say the ongoing hostilities, the Israeli military’s refusal to facilitate deliveries and the breakdown of order inside Gaza make it increasingly difficult to bring vital aid to much of the besieged enclave.

Aid groups said they’ve faced a cumbersome inspection process that allowed only a trickle of aid to enter even as needs mounted. Israel says the inspections are needed for security reasons.

ISRAEL’S GANTZ SAYS NEW ATTEMPTS AT CEASE-FIRE ARE UNDERWAY

A member of Israel’s three-person War Cabinet says there are new attempts underway to reach a cease-fire deal to pause the war in Gaza.

But Benny Gantz says Israel is ready to press ahead with its offensive in the southern city of Rafah during the upcoming Muslim holy month of Ramadan, despite widespread international opposition.

Israel is seeking the release of the more than 100 hostages that Hamas is still holding in Gaza. Hamas wants an end to the war, withdrawal of all Israeli troops and the release of Palestinian prisoners held by Israel.

Weeks of efforts by the U.S., Egypt and Qatar have so far not yielded a deal. However Gantz, a former military chief and defense minister, said there are “initial signs that indicate the possibility of moving forward.”

“We will not stop looking for the way and we will not miss any opportunity to bring the girls and boys home,” he added.

Israel has identified Rafah, a city on the Egyptian border where over half of Gaza’s population has sought refuge, as its next target. It says Rafah is the last remaining Hamas stronghold after nearly five months of fighting.

Gantz said Israel will evacuate the hundreds of thousands of civilians in Rafah before striking, but repeated his pledge that the offensive will take place during Ramadan if hostages are not released.

“I repeat — if there is no outline for the (hostage) release, we will also operate during Ramadan,” he said.

The U.S. and other members of the international community have urged Israel not to strike Rafah without a plan to protect civilians.

Ramadan is expected to begin around March 10.

W.H.O. CHIEF SAYS HE HASN’T SPOKEN DIRECTLY TO NETANYAHU DURING GAZA WAR

The head of the World Health Organization says he hasn’t spoken to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in a decade and will “probably” make contact now, at a time when Israel’s military campaign in Gaza has devastated medical facilities there.

WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, when asked about his contact with Netanyahu in recent months, said he had not been in touch with the Israeli leader since he served as Ethiopia’s foreign minister in 2014.

“So probably I will take that as a recommendation and make contact,” Tedros told a WHO news conference on Wednesday, noting that the organization’s country office has been in contact with Israeli authorities.

Tedros has made repeated heartfelt statements on how Israel’s war in Gaza has decimated the health sector. However, his comments Wednesday were the first time he publicly said he hasn’t tried talking to Netanyahu about the how the war is being conducted.

Tedros, who led the U.N. health agency’s response to the coronavirus pandemic, has over the years met with many world leaders including Chinese President Xi Jinping, before the pandemic was declared, and French President Emmanuel Macron.

Hospitals in Gaza have repeatedly come under fire by Israel’s military during the monthslong war. Israel has accused the militant group Hamas, which runs Gaza, of using medical facilities as cover for its operations.

WHO has listed a total of 754 “attacks on health care” — including strikes that hit ambulances, medical facilities, health care workers and any other attacks that affect the provision of health care — in occupied Palestinian areas since Oct. 7.

On Tuesday, WHO said 32 patients in critical condition had been transferred from Nasser Medical Complex in southern Gaza to other facilities in recent days, after the complex became “non-functional” following an Israeli siege and military raid.

“The health and humanitarian situation in Gaza is inhumane and continues to deteriorate,” Tedros said in his opening remarks on Wednesday.

SWITZERLAND WILL BAN HAMAS

Switzerland will ban the Palestinian militant group Hamas, the government said Wednesday.

Under the ban, Swiss authorities can more easily apply preventative measures to deny entry or expel anyone suspected of affiliation with Hamas, and exchange information with foreign authorities more openly in cases of suspected terrorism financing linked to the group.

The Federal Council, Switzerland’s seven-member executive branch, said the ban will affect Hamas and any potential successor organizations. The Swiss government already listed Hamas as a terror organization just days after the deadly Oct. 7 attacks in Israel.

Acts of support for Hamas could be punishable with penalties of up to 20 years in prison, depending on the level of influence in the group, the government said in a statement. However, the ban so far is limited to five years, but it can be extended by parliament.

ISRAELI LAWMAKERS OPPOSE UNILATERAL RECOGNITION OF A PALESTINIAN STATE

Israel’s parliament has given overwhelming approval to a declaration expressing opposition to international efforts to unilaterally recognize a Palestinian state.

Wednesday’s vote, approved by 99 of 120 lawmakers, is not binding but reflects the widespread sentiment in Israel as it battles Hamas militants in Gaza for a fifth month. Only nine lawmakers voted against the measure.

“Israel outright rejects international edicts regarding a permanent settlement with the Palestinians. The settlement, to the extent that it is reached, will be solely through direct negotiations between the parties, without preconditions,” it says.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Cabinet adopted the declaration earlier in the week.

Netanyahu went on the offensive after media reports arose last week of a possible roadmap toward establishing a Palestinian state from the U.S. administration and Arab countries. The United States has also said Palestinian statehood is a key element in a broader vision for the normalization of relations between Israel and regional heavyweight Saudi Arabia.

The international community overwhelmingly supports an independent Palestinian state as part of a future peace agreement. Netanyahu’s government is filled with hard-liners who oppose Palestinian independence.

RAPE AND SEXUAL ASSAULT TOOK PLACE DURING HAMAS ATTACK, ISRAELI ASSOCIATION SAYS

The Association of Rape Crisis Centers in Israel says it found evidence of “systematic and intentional” rape and sexual abuse during the Hamas attack on Oct. 7 that ignited the war in Gaza.

The report said that “in some cases, rape was conducted in front of an audience, such as partners, family, or friends, to increase the pain and humiliation for all present.” Orit Sulitzeanu, the executive director of the association, says that in many cases, the bodies of male and female victims, including their genitals, were severely mutilated.

The report, published on Wednesday, did not specify the number of cases it had documented or identify any victims, even anonymously. Sulitzeanu said such determinations were difficult because many of the victims were killed after being assaulted, and first responders were so overwhelmed by the scale of death and destruction that they did not document signs of sexual abuse.

The report’s authors said they based their research on confidential and public interviews with officials and first responders, as well as media reports. Sulitzeanu said they also relied on “confidential sources” but declined to say whether they had spoken to victims.

An Associated Press investigation also found that sexual assault was part of an atrocity-filled rampage by Hamas and other militants who killed about 1,200 people, most of them civilians, and took around 250 hostages on Oct. 7. Hamas has rejected allegations that its gunmen committed sexual assault.

According to the Israeli report, which was submitted to the United Nations and U.N. investigators carrying out a similar investigation, the sexual and gender-based violence occurred in four main places – the Nova music festival, communities near the Gaza border, Israeli military bases that were overrun by Hamas and places where hostages were held in Gaza.

Sulitzeanu says the purpose of the report was to document how the sexual violence was similar across multiple sites, indicating it was organized and directed by Hamas.

The association represents multiple rape crisis centers across Israel.

ISRAELI AIRSTRIKE KILLS A WOMAN AND HER DAUGHTER IN SOUTHERN LEBANON

BEIRUT — Lebanon’s state-run National News Agency says an Israeli airstrike on a southern village has killed a woman and her daughter.

Wednesday’s airstrike on the village of Majdal Zoun came after a series of strikes overnight, including one on Safi Mountain in the Hezbollah stronghold of Apple Province and another near the southern town of Khiam.

NNA identified the woman killed as Khadija Salman, 40. Security officials speaking on condition of anonymity, in line with regulations, identified her 7-year-old daughter, who later succumbed to her wounds, as Amal al-Dur.

The Iran-backed Hezbollah has been striking at Israeli posts along the border since the Israel-Hamas war broke out following the Oct. 7 attack by Palestinian militants on southern Israel.

More than 200 people, the vast majority of them Hezbollah fighters, have been killed in Lebanon since the latest round of violence broke out more than four months ago. The dead include more than 30 civilians.

ISRAELI STRIKES ACROSS GAZA KILL 67 PALESTINIANS OVERNIGHT

RAFAH, Gaza Strip — Israeli strikes across Gaza killed at least 67 Palestinians overnight and into Wednesday, including in areas where civilians have been told to seek refuge.

The Al-Aqsa Martyrs hospital in Deir al-Balah says it received 44 bodies after multiple strikes in central Gaza. Associated Press reporters saw the bodies arriving in ambulances and private vehicles. Relatives held funeral prayers in the hospital courtyard early Wednesday.

An airstrike on a home in Gaza’s southernmost city of Rafah killed a family of eight, according to Marwan al-Hams, the director of the Abu Youssef al-Najjar hospital. Nasser Abuel-Nour, a university professor; his wife, Nour, a human rights lawyer; their five children and grandchild were all killed in the strike.

Al-Hams says another two people were killed in a strike on a vehicle in Rafah. At least seven people were killed in strikes in the southern city of Khan Younis, the main focus of Israel’s offensive in recent weeks, and another six were killed in Muwasi, an area Israel had declared a safe zone, the hospital said.

The war sparked by Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack into Israel has killed over 29,000 Palestinians, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry, and driven some 80% of the population of 2.3 million from their homes.

Most heeded Israeli orders to flee south and around 1.5 million have crowded into Rafah. Israel has vowed to expand its ground offensive to the southernmost city as it seeks to destroy Hamas, which is still fighting Israeli forces across the territory.

AP

WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Ukraine outnumbered, outgunned, ground down by relentless Russia

As the Ukraine war enters its third year, the infantry of 59th Brigade are confronting a bleak reality: they're running out of soldiers and ammunition to resist their Russian invaders.

One platoon commander who goes by his call sign "Tygr" estimated that just 60-70% of the several thousand men in the brigade at the start of the conflict were still serving. The rest had been killed, wounded or signed off for reasons such as old age or illness.

Heavy casualties at the hands of Russian forces have been compounded by dreadful conditions on the eastern front, with frozen soil turning into thick mud in unseasonably warm temperatures, playing havoc with soldiers' health.

"The weather is rain, snow, rain, snow. People get ill with simple flu or angina as a result. They're out of action for some time, and there is nobody to replace them," said a company commander in the brigade with the call sign "Limuzyn". "The most immediate problem in every unit is lack of people."

On the cusp of the second anniversary of its Feb. 24 invasion, Vladimir Putin's Russia is in the ascendancy in a conflict that combines attritional trench combat reminiscent of World War One with high-tech drone warfare that's sending tens of thousands of machines into the skies above.

Moscow has made small gains in recent months and claimed a major victory at the weekend when it took control of Avdiivka in the hotly contested eastern Donetsk region. A spokesperson for 3rd Separate Assault Brigade, one of the units that tried to hold the town, said the defenders were outnumbered seven to one.

Reuters spoke to more than 20 soldiers and commanders in infantry, drone and artillery units on different sections of the 1,000-km frontlines in eastern and southern Ukraine.

While still motivated to fight Russian occupation, they spoke of the challenges of holding off a larger and better supplied enemy as military support from the West slows despite pleas for more from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy.

Another commander in the 59th Brigade, who only gave his first name Hryhoriy, described relentless attacks from groups of five to seven Russian soldiers who would push forward up to 10 times a day in what he called "meat assaults" - highly costly to the Russians but also a major threat to his troops.

"When one or two defensive positions are fighting off these assaults all day, the guys get tired," Hryhoriy said as he and his exhausted men were afforded a brief rotation away from the frontlines near the Russian-occupied eastern city of Donetsk.

"Weapons break, and if there is no possibility of bringing them more ammunition or changing their weapons, then you understand what this leads to."

Russia's defence ministry didn't respond to a request for comment on the state of play on the frontlines.

Ukrainian Deputy Defence Minister Ivan Havryliuk told Reuters that Ukraine had been forced onto the defensive by a lack of artillery ammunition and rockets, and that Kyiv was expecting Russia to intensify its assaults on several fronts.

"If there are further delays to the necessary military aid, the situation on the front could become even more difficult for us," he said in a written response.

WANTED: FIGHTERS AND AMMO

Kyiv relies heavily on money and equipment from abroad to fund its war effort, but with $61 billion in U.S. aid held up by political bickering in Washington it is looking more exposed than at any time since the start of the invasion.

A soldier serving in a GRAD rocket artillery unit, whose call sign is "Skorpion", said that his launcher, which uses Soviet-designed ammunition held by few of Ukraine's allies, was now operating at about 30% of maximum capacity.

"It became like this recently," he said. "There aren't as many foreign munitions."

Artillery shells are also in short supply as a result of Western countries' inability to keep up the pace of shipments for a drawn-out war. On top of the U.S. supply pause, the EU has conceded it will miss its target to supply a million shells to Ukraine by March by nearly half.

Michael Kofman, a senior fellow and Russian military specialist at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a Washington-based think-tank, estimated that Russia's artillery was firing at five times the rate of Ukraine's, a figure that Hryhoriy of the 59th Brigade also gave.

"Ukraine is not getting a sufficient amount of artillery ammunition to meet its minimum defensive needs, and this is not a sustainable situation moving forward," Kofman added.

Moscow now controls almost a fifth of Ukrainian territory including the Crimea peninsula it annexed in 2014, even if the frontlines of the war have largely stagnated in the last 14 months.

Ukrainian officials have said their armed forces number around 800,000, while in December Putin ordered Russia's forces to be increased by 170,000 troops to 1.3 million.

Beyond personnel, Moscow's defence spending dwarfs that of Ukraine. In 2024 it earmarked $109 billion for the sector, more than twice Ukraine's equivalent target of $43.8 billion.

A new law aimed at mobilising 450-500,000 more Ukrainians is slowly making its way through parliament, but for some soldiers fighting now, significant reinforcements seem a distant hope.

Ukrainian Defence Minister Rustem Umerov recently referred to Ukraine's artillery ammunition deficit as "critical" in a letter to the European Union, urging its national leaders to do more to bolster supplies.

His letter said Ukraine's "absolute critical daily minimum requirement" was 6,000 artillery shells, but his forces were able to fire just 2,000 a day, the Financial Times reported.

DRONE WAR ON MASSIVE SCALE

Conventional warplanes are a relatively rare sight over the frontlines, largely because air defences act as a deterrent. Yet a different battle is raging in the skies, with both sides striving for the upper hand in drone technology.

Drones - or unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) - are cheap to produce and can surveil enemy movements and drop ordnance with pinpoint accuracy.

Kyiv has overseen a boom in drone production and innovation and is developing advanced, long-range UAVs, while Moscow has more than matched its rival with huge investments of its own, allowed it to nullify Ukraine's early advantage.

The scale is astonishing.

On the Ukrainian side alone, more than 300,000 drones were ordered from producers last year and more than 100,000 sent to the front, digital minister Mykhailo Fedorov told Reuters.

A strong focus now is on light, nimble FPV drones, where operators, or pilots, get a first-person view from an onboard camera. President Zelenskiy has set a target for Ukraine to produce one million FPV drones this year in light of the battlefield advantages delivered by the technology.

Limuzyn, the company commander in the 59th Brigade, said Russia's widespread use of drones had make it difficult for Ukrainian troops to establish or strengthen fortified positions.

"Our guys start to do something, a drone sees them, and a second drone arrives to drop something onto them."

Drones have also forced the Russians to move valuable vehicles and weapons systems back by several kilometres, according to two Ukrainian drone pilots in different units.

"It's now very hard to find vehicles to hit... most vehicles are 9-10 km away or more," said a pilot in the 24th Brigade with the call sign "Nato". "At the beginning they were very comfortable being 7 km away."

Two other Ukrainian drone pilots, "Leleka" and "Darwin", both serving in the elite Achilles drone unit of the 92nd Brigade, described queues of two or three UAVs sometimes forming above the battlefield, waiting to hit enemy targets.

Leleka recalled watching four drones from different Ukrainian units coming in to strike a target on one occasion: "It's like taxis at the airport, one drone comes, then another, then a third."

The same situation is true for the Russians, whose drones now comfortably outnumber Ukraine's, according to Ukrainian pilots from three units. The Russian defence ministry said this month that the country had ramped upits production of military drones in the past year, without giving figures.

As the use from drones grows, both sides are bolstering deployment of electronic warfare systems which can disrupt the frequencies that feed commands from the pilot to the drone, making them drop out of the sky or miss their target.

Darwin, a 20-year-old who dropped out of medical school to enlist when Russia invaded, compared the current drone arms race to that between aviation and air defence: planes dominated in World War Two, but modern air defence systems greatly limited their use in this war, he said.

"In future, I am sure there will be an analogous situation with drones: The concentration and effectiveness of electronic warfare will become so big that any connection between an aerial vehicle and its pilot will become impossible."

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

Ukraine can’t maintain advanced US-supplied weapons – Pentagon

The US has no plan in place to maintain, service or repair tanks, armored vehicles and air defense systems Washington has given to the Ukrainian military, Pentagon Inspector-General Robert P. Storch has admitted. The failure to plan “puts at risk Ukraine’s ability to fight effectively using the US-provided equipment, as well as the DoD’s readiness to address other national security threats if needed,” he added.

Storch revealed in two redacted reports released to the public on Tuesday that the US has delivered 186 Bradley and 189 Stryker Infantry Fighting Vehicles (IFV), 31 Abrams main battle tanks, and an unspecified number of Patriot air defense systems to Ukraine. 

Washington’s  Department of Defense “had not developed or implemented a plan” to maintain any of them, according to the inspectors cited in the reports, who warned that there is nothing to suggest the weaponry could be sustained past October 2024.

All of the weapons systems were taken from the US military’s own stocks “without limits,” under the Presidential Drawdown Authority, according to the reports. If this practice continued, it “may require the [Department of Defense] to choose between the readiness of [Ukrainian] units or the readiness of US Army units,” one official told the inspectors.

The US military-industrial complex has struggled to replace the weapons systems sent to Ukraine, due to shortage of parts and the lack of production lines or trained personnel. Maintenance was described in the reports as an “afterthought” for the Pentagon, whose main focus was to arm Ukraine “as quickly as possible.” 

An official with the US European Command told the inspectors that “the current model would not be sustainable or effective over the longer term.” 

“The DoD provided Ukraine with armored vehicles and air defense systems without a plan to ensure their long-term usefulness,” Storch said in a statement. “While the DoD is currently working on developing such a plan, the lack of foresight in this matter is concerning.”

The US military sent “limited spare parts, ammunition, and maintenance support” and “did not coordinate or tailor those efforts into a comprehensive sustainment plan,” according to Storch’s reports.

What was sent included “some” consumables and spare parts for field maintenance, as well as “additional items informed by US experience operating the weapon systems in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Syria,” Storch noted. 

While the sustainment is not required under the current congressional authority for sending weapons to Ukraine, “the weapon systems are not likely to remain mission capable” without it, the report said.

At least one US Patriot system has been destroyed by hypersonic missiles, according to the Russian Defense Ministry. Last year’s Ukrainian offensive saw multiple Bradley and Stryker vehicles destroyed in attempts to advance against Russian defenses. There have been no public reports of Abrams tanks being used in active combat operations so far.

** Only 10% of EU citizens believe Ukraine can win – poll

Only 10% of European Union citizens polled across 12 countries believe Ukraine will triumph over Russia on the battlefield, according to poll results published Wednesday by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR).

While twice as many (20%) expect Russia to emerge victorious, the prevailing opinion – shared by 37% of respondents – was that the conflict would end with some form of compromise settlement.

Survey respondents in just two countries, Poland and Portugal, thought a Ukrainian victory was more probable than a Russian one, but each nation’s results also indicate most believe a compromise to be most likely. Over a third (35%) of Portuguese respondents and 27% of Poles anticipated a settlement, compared to 17% of each who foresaw a victorious Kiev – or to the 11% and 14%, respectively, who predicted Moscow would win.

Hungary, long the loudest voice of opposition to Brussels’ ongoing funding of Ukraine’s military, registered the most pessimistic views regarding Kiev’s potential triumph, with just 5% predicting a win for the EU-backed troops compared to 31% for Moscow.

Despite this grim outlook, nearly a third (31%) of respondents thought Europe should continue pushing Ukraine to reconquer the territories incorporated into Russia following referendums in late 2022.

While a plurality (41%) of overall respondents suggested Europe push Ukraine to negotiate a peace deal with Russia, this view was less than half as popular in Portugal and Poland as was that of urging Kiev to fight on. Hungarians were by far the most supportive of encouraging a peace deal (64%), while 16% of them would advise their neighbors to keep fighting.

The survey’s authors framed the results as an indication that “the quest to define peace will thus be a critical battleground in this war” with elections looming in the EU and US, warning the bloc’s leaders that they must convince their citizens that “peace on Russian terms” – an outcome in which Ukraine did not join the EU, for example – was not a “durable peace.”

The poll surveyed 17,023 respondents in 12 European countries in January, several weeks before Russia took control of Avdeevka on Saturday in what has been described as its most important victory since last year’s battle of Artyomovsk (Bakhmut).

Ukraine was granted EU-candidate status in 2022 following the start of Russia’s military operation in the country. Funding the conflict initially enjoyed broad support across the bloc – so much so that Brussels ditched the ban on weapons purchasing that was part of its founding treaties in order to bankroll Kiev’s military.

While the widely acknowledged failure of last summer’s Ukrainian counteroffensive, as well as economic crises at home, have sapped many Europeans’ enthusiasm for the conflict, Brussels passed €50 billion ($54 billion) in aid for Ukraine as part of the EU budget earlier this month.

Reuters/RT

Sometimes, it takes a single word — like “because” — to change someone’s mind.

That’s according to Jonah Berger, a marketing professor at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania who’s compiled a list of “magic words” that can change the way you communicate. Using the word “because” while trying to convince someone to do something has a compelling result, he tells CNBC Make It: More people will listen to you, and do what you want.

Berger points to nearly a 50-year-old study from Harvard University, wherein researchers sat in a university library and waited for someone to use the copy machine. Then, they walked up and asked to cut in front of the unknowing participant.

They phrased their request in three different ways:

• “May I use the Xerox machine?”
• “May I use the Xerox machine because I have to make copies?”
• “May I use the Xerox machine because I’m in a rush?”

Both requests using “because” made the people already making copies more than 50% more likely to comply, researchers found. Even the second phrasing — which could be reinterpreted as “May I step in front of you to do the same exact thing you’re doing?” — was effective, because it indicated that the stranger asking for a favor was at least being considerate about it, the study suggested.

“Persuasion wasn’t driven by the reason itself,” Berger wrote in a book on the topic, “Magic Words,” which published last year. “It was driven by the power of the word.”

Other ‘magic words’ and how to use them

Companies use “because” to make their advertisements more convincing, behavioral scientist Nuala Walsh wrote in an Inc.com column last year: Makeup company L’Oréal has used the slogan “Because you’re worth it” for five decades, and furniture stores need you to shop their sales now “because it’s for a limited time.”

The seven-letter word isn’t the only one with communication superpowers. Arguments, requests and presentations aren’t any more or less convincing when they’re based on solid ideas, Berger says — rather, they depend on the individual words you use.

“You could have excellent ideas, but excellent ideas aren’t necessarily going to get people to listen to you,” he says. “Subtle shifts in our in our language can have a really big impact.”

Saying and writing the word “recommend” instead of “like” makes people nearly a third more likely to follow your suggestions, Berger noted in his book. The same is true when you swap out verbs for nouns, he says: People are up to 30% more likely to oblige your requests when you ask for helpers instead of help, or voters instead of votes.

You can, and should, use these strategies when you’re on the receiving end of a conversation, Berger says: Listen to the specific words other people use, and craft a response that speaks their language. Doing so can help drive an agreement, solution or connection.

“Everything in language we might use over email at the office ... [can] provide insight into who they are and what they’re going to do in the future,” says Berger.

CNBC

The economies of Ghana and Nigeria are poised to see the slowest economic growth in 2024 when compared to their peers in the West African region.

Overall, the West African region is expected to grow by 0.8% to 4.0% this year and 4.4% in 2025 according to the AfDB macro-economic performance outlook for 2024.  

African Development bank stated that aside Nigeria and Ghana, every other country in the sub-region is estimated to grow by at least 4% in 2024 with embattled Niger leading the pack at 11.2% followed by Senegal and Ivory Coast at 8.2% and 6.8% respectively.  

• It stated, “except for Nigeria and Ghana, all countries in the region are projected to grow at least 4 percent in 2024” 

2024 economic forecast for Nigeria 

The bank’s forecast for Nigeria anticipates a growth rate of 2.9% in 2024, improving to 3.7% by 2025. This modest growth trajectory is primarily linked to the repercussions of recent policy reforms, including the elimination of fuel subsidies and the efforts to consolidate the foreign exchange markets.  

These measures, while aimed at stabilizing the economy, have exacerbated the cost of living, suppressing both consumer spending and investment.  

Despite these challenges, the report suggests that the strategic redirection of resources—specifically, the $5 billion formerly allocated to fuel subsidies between 2022 and May 2023—towards vital social infrastructure, holds the promise of yielding significant long-term benefits over the immediate discomforts. 

Ghana’s economic projections for 2024 

In contrast, Ghana’s economic growth is expected to slightly pick up to 2.8% in 2024, from a sluggish 1.5% in 2023. The analysis attributes this slow pace to persistent inflationary pressures that continue to strain household budgets, implying that inflation remains a critical barrier to Ghana’s economic revival and growth prospects. 

Ghana and Nigeria- pseudo-rivals with similar economic tales 

Ghana grappled with an unprecedented economic downturn in 2023, marked by a staggering inflation rate that peaked at over 50%. However, recent reports as of indicate a significant easing of inflation to 23.4%. The Ghanaian currency, the Cedi, also faced a steep devaluation of over 11% in the first half of 2023.

• The country’s economic challenges began in December 2022 when it announced a suspension of payments on a major chunk of its $28.4 billion external debt, essentially defaulting.  
• However, Ghana secured a $3 billion deal with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), offering a glimmer of hope amidst its financial turmoil. 
• Like its counterpart in West Africa, Nigeria’s economic problems started with the currency redesign fiasco followed by the twin reforms of then newly elected President Tinubu- fuel subsidy removal and unification of the foreign exchange market.  
• These policies pushed inflation to a 27year high as of December 2023 at 28.92% mainly propelled by rising cost of food and transport. Also, Nigerians have seen their currency depreciate by over 100% since the unification of the forex market in June and the resultant devaluation by the CBN. 

Nairametrics

Solomon Dalung, Minister of Youths and Sports Development in the first term of President Muhammadu Buhari, has told President Bola Tinubu to perform what he described as his “Lagos miracles”.

Tinubu was the governor of Lagos State from 1999 to 2007.

During his campaign for the highest office in the land, Tinubu emphasised that he built Lagos to a model for good governance, infrastructure renewal and innovation and asked that he should be given the chance to replicate such in Nigeria.

However, policies introduced by the president have not addressed the needs of Nigerians, but plunged the country into further hardship in many instances.

This, some of Tinubu’s allies have blamed on the past.

But in a series of posts via X, the former minister described attempts by the President Tinubu-led administration to consistently blame Buhari for Nigeria’s economic challenges, as hypocritical.

Dalung said if Tinubu’s administration devoted the same resources and effort used during elections and tribunals to tackle security and economic issues, significant improvements would have been achieved.

According to him, blaming Buhari for economic woes wouldn’t alleviate the hardships faced by the people.

While acknowledging Buhari’s failure to fulfill the “change” promise, Dalung maintained that the responsibility for Nigeria’s economic woes lies with Tinubu’s government due to its reckless policies.

He wrote: “Blaming #MBuhari for economic woes cannot address the economic situation confronting the people. Can bulk trading be the only solution for #officialABAT & his economic team? The pregnant situation deserves urgent prescriptions. Hunger & high cost of living is at unbearable level.

“The attempt to change narratives of #officialABAT from “don’t pity me, I look for the job and got it” to blaming Buhari by #BwalaDaniel #aonanuga1956 & Co travellers is uncharitable hypocrisy, #officialABAT knew all these problems, yet “he snatched power and ran away with it.

“An empty stomach does not listen to the voice of the gospel, the echoes of concerns especially traditional rulers cannot be ignored. I lean my voice to it, #officialABAT hunger is a recipe for disaster, can you sit back at home and engage broadly if your wisdom cannot provide solutions?

“If #officialABAT deploys the same energy, knowledge, tactics & money during elections & tribunal to deal with Nigeria’s security & economic challenges, things will change. Why has the steam suddenly changed to blaming Daura? You have snatched power, oya perform your Lagos miracles.”

Daily Trust