A year ago, a resolute President Volodymyr Zelensky traveled direct from the battlefield of Bakhmut to address the US Congress and meet with President Joe Biden. He was feted as a hero; Ukraine’s determination to resist Russian aggression met with strong bipartisan backing in Washington.

One year on, the outlook looks much grimmer. A long-anticipated Ukrainian offensive in the south has made scant progress. Russia appears to have weathered international sanctions, for now, and has converted its economy into a war machine.

The Russian way of war, absorbing hideous losses of men and materiel but throwing yet more into the fight, has blunted the Ukrainian military’s tactical and technological edge, as its top general admitted in a candid essay last month.

The mood in Moscow seems grimly determined: the goals of the “special military operation” will be achieved, and the fighting will continue until they are.

As the long frontline becomes ever more calcified, the Kremlin senses greater skepticism among Kyiv’s Western backers that Ukraine can recover the 17% of its territory still occupied by Russian forces.

Russian President Vladimir Putin is relishing the much more partisan atmosphere in Washington, where many in the Republican Party are questioning the purpose of sending Ukraine another $61 billion worth of aid as requested by the Biden administration, assessing that it will achieve little on the battlefield.

At his first year-end news conference since the conflict began, Putin scoffed: “Ukraine produces almost nothing today, everything is coming from the West, but the free stuff is going to run out some day, and it seems it already is.”

At the same time, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban blocked a $55  billion EU package of financial aid for Ukraine, prompting one German politician to say that it was like having Putin himself sitting at the table.

That jeopardizes government spending on everything from salaries to hospitals.

Zelensky, who by his own recent admission is tired, has an ever-harder job as Ukraine’s chief salesman, with events in the Middle East diverting attention from Ukraine as the number-one international crisis.

On the first anniversary of the invasion, he predicted that “2023 will be the year of our victory!” He’s unlikely to make the same optimistic forecast for the coming year.

As December came to a close, Ukraine suffered the biggest Russian air attack since the start of the full-scale invasion. Russia fired 158 drones and missiles – including hypersonic Kinzhals – at targets across Ukraine on Friday, killing at least 18 people and injuring scores more. Zelensky said Russia used “nearly every type of weapon in its arsenal” in the strikes.

R ussia is not without its own vulnerabilities, but they are more long-term. The conflict has exacerbated its demographic crisis through emigration and battlefield losses. Nearly 750,000 people left Russia in 2022; analysts expect an even higher number will have voted with their feet this year.

Labor shortages are stoking rising wages and therefore inflation. Evading sanctions and maintaining industrial production comes at a price, with much of that production now devoted to replacing the stunning battlefield losses and the budget deficit exploding accordingly.

The long-term prognosis for the Russian economy is grim – and that may be Putin’s most fundamental legacy.

But as the economist John Maynard Keynes once said, “In the long run we are all dead.” In the short-term Putin appears unassailable. Reelection in March is a formality (the Kremlin has already acknowledged as much.) Contrast that with the US, where a febrile year of campaigning might end with Donald Trump preparing for his second term. That is Kyiv’s nightmare and Moscow’s dream.

The deeply partisan mood in Congress has scuppered the Biden’s administration’s request for further aid for Kyiv. Currently allocated funds for military equipment are nearly drained. One Democratic senator, Chris Murphy, said starkly: “We are about to abandon Ukraine.”

The mantra in Western capitals on supporting Ukraine has been “as long as it takes.” But standing next to Zelensky this month, Biden said the US would support Ukraine “as long as we can.”

Battlefield slog

While the global metrics for Ukraine deteriorate, so the frontlines offer little cheer.

The much-anticipated Ukrainian counteroffensive launched in June was meant to display the superiority of NATO’s strategy of combined arms warfare, drilled into newly-minted Ukrainian brigades who were trained in muddy fields in Germany. But it was alien to Ukrainian military culture and was not matched by superiority in the skies.

What should have been a dash south to the Black Sea became a quagmire in dense minefields, with Western armor picked off from the air by Russian drones and aviation.

Ukrainian units took at most 200 square kilometers of territory over six months. The goals of reaching the coastline, Crimea and splitting Russian forces in the south remained a distant dream.

With the frontlines frozen, Kyiv’s intelligence agencies have turned to more spectacular attacks: sinking a Russian landing ship in Crimea this week and even sabotaging railway lines as far as the Russian Far East. Success in the Black Sea has allowed for relatively safe passage for merchant ships, despite Moscow abandoning a UN-brokered deal last summer.

However, despite their audacity, such operations won’t alter the fundamental balance of the conflict.

Zaluzhny put it bluntly: “The level of our technological development today has put both us and our enemies in a stupor.” The use of surveillance and strike drones deprives both sides of the element of surprise within the confines of the battlefield.

“The simple fact is that we see everything the enemy is doing, and they see everything we are doing.”

But the Russians’ vast reserves of manpower and hardware (Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu boasted that he could raise 25 million men if necessary) mean they can continue bludgeoning the smaller Ukrainian military, making incremental gains at enormous cost.

So it was around Bakhmut last winter; perhaps the same will apply to the ruined Donetsk town of Avdiivka in the next few weeks.

The pool of military recruits in Ukraine has substantially shrunk; battlefield losses have deprived the military of tens of thousands of experienced soldiers and mid-rank officers. “Sooner or later we are going to find that we simply don’t have enough people to fight,” Zaluzhny told the Economist in November.

The arrival of F-16s fighter jets in the spring will undoubtedly help the Ukrainian air force challenge Russian combat planes and support their own ground forces, but they will be no silver bullet. Basic training is one thing; flying into the teeth of Russian air defenses another.

The same would apply even if the US agreed to supply longer-range Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) to Ukraine. (UK-supplied Storm Shadow missiles have helped target the Russian rear.)

In any event, the paralysis over funding has blocked the pipeline of US weaponry and Europe does not have the capacity to fill the gap.

Some leading analysts conclude it’s time for a clear-eyed reassessment.

“Ukraine and the West are on an unsustainable trajectory, one characterized by a glaring mismatch between ends and the available means,” write Richard Haass and Charles Kupchan in Foreign Affairs.

Ukraine’s goal of recovering all its territory is “out of reach,” they say bluntly.“Where we are looks at best like a costly deadlock.”

They recommend that Ukraine shifts to a defensive posture in 2024 to stem losses, which would “shore up Western support by demonstrating that Kyiv has a workable strategy aimed at attainable goals.”

The Russian military, which has by and large proved inept in offensive operations, would thereby find it even more difficult to take ground.

To others, such a shift would essentially reward aggression, enabling Russia to pause and regroup, with potentially dangerous consequences for others in Russia’s near-abroad. It would also send the wrong message about US commitment to other allies, such as Taiwan. And it’s a non-starter, politically, in Kyiv.

Biden said during Zelensky’s visit that “Putin is banking on the United States failing to deliver for Ukraine. We must, we must, we must prove him wrong.”

It smacked of desperation. Haass and Kupchan say, “Ukraine would be wise to devote incoming resources to its long-term security and prosperity instead of expending it on the battlefield for little gain.”

There are certainly signs of tensions within Ukrainian society as the conflict nears its second anniversary and the economy struggles to start growing again, after shrinking by one-third. The longer several million Ukrainians live elsewhere in Europe, the less likely they are to come back.

For now Zelensky and his inner circle show no sign of compromise. Zelensky won’t countenance a truce or negotiations. “For us it would mean leaving this wound open for future generations,” he told TIME in November.

Instead, barring some unlikely collapse in morale on either side, the same towns and villages destroyed over the last two years will still be fought over in the next. Ukraine will have the means to survive, but not to win.

CNN

Fighting between Israeli forces and Hamas rages after nearly 200 killed in Gaza

Fierce Israeli tank fire and aerial bombing struck Khan Younis in the Gaza Strip on Friday night, residents said, after nearly 200 people were reported killed in 24 hours in Israel's campaign against Hamas militants.

The sound of shooting indicated fighting between Israeli forces and Hamas fighters in Khan Younis, some residents said. Planes also carried out a series of air strikes on the Nuseirat camp in the central Gaza Strip, according to medics and Palestinian journalists.

Israeli forces have been pounding Khan Younis in preparation for an anticipated further advance into the main southern city, swathes of which they captured in early December.

Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said troops were reaching Hamas command centres and arms depots. The Israeli military also said it had destroyed a tunnel complex in the basement of one of the houses of the Hamas leader for Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, in Gaza City.

Twelve weeks after Hamas militants stormed Israeli towns, killing 1,200 people and seizing 240 hostages, Israeli forces have laid much of the Gaza Strip to waste as it pursues its war aim of eradicating the Islamist militants.

Nearly all of Gaza's 2.3 million people have fled their homes at least once and many are on the move again, often reduced to taking shelter in makeshift tents or huddled under tarpaulins and plastic sheets on open ground.

Gaza health authorities said 187 more Palestinians were confirmed killed in Israeli strikes in 24 hours, raising the toll to 21,507 - about 1% of Gaza's population. Thousands more bodies are feared to be buried in the ruins of obliterated neighbourhoods.

PALESTINIAN JOURNALIST KILLED

A Palestinian journalist working for Al-Quds TV was killed along with a number of his family members in an Israeli air strike on their house in the Nuseirat camp in central Gaza Strip, health officials and fellow journalists said.

It brings the toll of Palestinian journalists killed in the Israeli offensive to 106, according to Gaza's government media office.

The Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ) said last week that the first 10 weeks of the Israel-Gaza war were the deadliest recorded for journalists, with the most journalists killed in a single year in one location.

Most of the journalists and media workers killed in the war were Palestinian. The report by the U.S.-based CPJ said it was "particularly concerned about an apparent pattern of targeting of journalists and their families by the Israeli military."

Earlier this month, a Reuters investigation found an Israeli tank crew killed a Reuters journalist, Issam Abdallah, and wounded six reporters in Lebanon on Oct. 13 by firing two shells in quick succession from Israel while the journalists were filming cross-border shelling.

Israel has previously said it has never and will never deliberately target journalists and that it is doing what it can to avoid civilian casualties, but the high death toll has caused concern even amongst its staunchest allies.

The U.S. has called for it to scale down the war in coming weeks and move to targeted operations against Hamas leaders. So far Israel shows no sign of doing so.

ISRAEL HELPS DELIVER VACCINES TO GAZA

Israel on Friday said it facilitated the entry of 49,130 vaccine doses, enough to inoculate almost 1.4 million people against illnesses including polio, tuberculosis, hepatitis, diphtheria, tetanus, whooping cough and meningitis.

The vaccine transfer was coordinated with UNICEF, said a statement from COGAT - the defence ministry agency that coordinates with the Palestinians - in order to prevent the spread of disease in the enclave.

Gaza is almost entirely reliant on food, fuel and medical supplies from the outside, and Israel has limited access apart from at the southern end. International agencies say supplies being let in through Israeli inspections are a small fraction of Gaza's vast needs.

Last week Israel bowed to international pressure to open a second crossing it said would double the number of supply trucks daily to 200, but just 76 were able to enter on Thursday, according to the United Nations, compared to 500 in peacetime.

An Israeli government spokesman said on Friday it does not limit humanitarian aid and the problem was with its distribution inside Gaza.

Reuters

WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Russia unleashes biggest air attack on Ukraine since start of full-scale invasion

Russia has launched the biggest air attack on Ukraine since the beginning of its full-scale invasion, the Ukrainian military told CNN, with an unprecedented number of drones and missiles fired at targets across the country, killing at least 31 people and injuring more than 150 others.

The wave of attacks began overnight into Friday and struck nationwide, with blasts reported in the capital Kyiv, as well as at a maternity hospital in the central city of Dnipro, the eastern city of Kharkiv, the southeastern port of Odesa, and the western city of Lviv, far from the frontlines.

The strikes continued Friday afternoon, Ukraine’s air force said, as a barrage of missiles targeted the northern Cherkasy region, with one hitting the city of Smilla. Other missiles were detected from Russia’s Kursk region heading towards the northeastern Ukrainian city of Sumy.

“It’s been a long time since we have seen so many enemy targets on our monitors in all regions and all directions,” Yurii Ihnat, spokesperson for Ukraine’s air force, told national television. “Everything was being fired.”

R ussia used 158 drones and missiles, including hypersonic Kinzhal missiles, cruise missiles and Shahed drones, to strike targets in Kyiv, the east, south and west of the country, Ukraine’s air force said.

“Today the enemy has struck a powerful blow. There are downed targets, however unfortunately there are also casualties,” Ihnat added.

The Polish military reported an “unidentified airborne object” entered Polish airspace from Ukrainian territory early Friday morning.

Chief of the General Staff, General Wiesław Kukuła, said everything indicated that a Russian missile had entered and then left Polish airspace, official Polish news agency PAP reported.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Russia used “nearly every type of weapon in its arsenal” in the “terrorist strikes,” to which he pledged Ukraine’s military would respond.

The massive overnight assault comes just days after Ukraine struck a Russian Navy landing ship in Crimea on Tuesday, causing severe damage to the vessel in another major blow to Moscow’s Black Sea fleet.

But the onslaught also came shortly after Ukraine received the last package of military aid from the United States until Congress approves the Biden administration’s funding request.

Nearly two years since Russian President Vladimir Putin launched his unprovoked invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Zelensky is facing a largely-stalled counteroffensive while Western aid has begun to dry up.

In a separate development, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky made a surprise visit to troops fighting in one of the most fiercely contested parts of front, the ruined city of Avdiivka.

Video released by the Ukrainian Presidency showed Zelensky standing on a muddy track with the town’s name behind him. As he speaks, two detonations in the distance are heard. He is also shown presenting medals to troops in an underground bunker.

“Ukraine is defending its own here,” he said. “Defending our entire nation. Just as on the entire front line.”

In Kyiv at least seven people were killed and dozens injured after Russia targeted a metro station and residential buildings.

Kharkiv was hit by a “massive attack,” Ukrainian Prime Minster Denys Shmyhal said, with more than 20 strikes reported in the region, including on a hospital. At least three people were killed and 11 injured in the strikes, according to regional military administration head Oleh Syniehubov.

At least four people were killed and 10 people were injured in the southern region of Zaporizhzhia, the regional military administration head Yurif Malashko said on Telegram. Emergency workers are still working to see if people are trapped under the rubble of collapsed buildings. Malashko said the region had been targeted by 10 missiles, including Kinzhal missiles, of which one was intercepted.

Further south, a school building was hit in Odesa, injuring seven people, including a child. At least three people were killed and 22 injured – including two children and a pregnant woman – in strikes elsewhere in the region, according to Oleh Kiper, head of Odesa region military administration. At least 18 people were hospitalized.

And in the central city of Dnipro, six people have been confirmed killed, and thirty people were injured in the missile strikes. Elsewhere in the city, 12 pregnant women and four newborn babies had a lucky escape, with video showing extensive damage to a maternity hospital after a Russian missile strike.

Iryna Kulbach, the head of the obstetrics department at the hospital, said “Windows were smashed in the building and the ceilings were broken. But all the patients and medical staff are safe.”

Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry said Russia had targeted “Ukrainian women, children, the elderly, and civilians.”

“The crimes that Russia has committed in Ukraine today are its revenge for its inability to turn the tide of the battle in the fight against the Ukrainian defense forces,” it said in a statement.

Without referring directly to Friday’s attacks, the Russian Defense Ministry said its army had “carried out 50 group strikes and one mass strike with high-precision weapons and unmanned aerial vehicles” in the period from December 23 to 29, claiming it had only struck military targets.

Meanwhile, the US Embassy in Kyiv warned Americans Friday that it “anticipates there may be an increase in Russian drone and missile attacks during the New Year holiday weekend.”

The head of Ukraine’s Presidential Office, Andriy Yermak, called for support as his country battles Russian airstrikes.

“A massive terrorist attack, rockets are flying at our cities again, and civilians are being targeted,” Yermak said in a Telegram post on Friday.

“Ukraine needs support. We will be even stronger, we are doing everything to strengthen our air shield. But the world needs to see that we need more support and strength to stop this terror.”

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the European Union will support Ukraine “for as long as it takes.”

“We have stood by Ukraine since day one of Russia’s war of aggression. With almost €85 billion [$94 billion] in financial, humanitarian and military support,” she wrote on X.

The latest proposed package of EU aid to Ukraine was blocked by Hungary earlier this month, but a majority of members are exploring the use of different mechanisms to continue providing financial assistance to Ukraine. Von der Leyen said Brussels was “working very hard” to reach an agreement between 27 member states.

Following the attacks the United Kingdom’s defense minister Grant Shapps said the UK is sending “hundreds of air defense missiles” to Ukraine, to “restock British gifted air defense systems capable of striking down Russian drones and missiles with incredible accuracy.”

‘The house was shaking’

The Ukrainian Air Force said it recorded “the departure of 9 Tu-95MS strategic bombers from the ‘Olenya’ airfield in the Murmansk region of Russia.” The Tu-95 bomber is a mainstay of Russia’s aerial attacks on Ukraine, able to launch cruise missiles against its neighbor out of the range of most air-defense systems.

In Kyiv, air raid sirens sounded for several hours overnight. Residents told CNN later Friday how they were woken by the attacks.

“It was very loud, the house was shaking, it was very scary,” said Viktoria Krasyuk. “It seems like you’ve been living in this for many months, but it still causes emotions, it’s still very difficult, it’s very hard to decide whether to stay or go somewhere, or even leave (the country).”

A man named Sehiy told CNN the attack was a reminder that Russia’s “goal is the same – to destroy Ukraine as a state.”

“Unfortunately, Russia is learning to fight. It is learning to fight, including from us Ukrainians. They are accumulating ammunition, everything else they need,” he said.

Trains were halted as a building was damaged at Lukianivska subway station in central Kyiv, which is also operating as a shelter, mayor Klitschko said.

Many were wounded and a search for victims is underway after a warehouse caught fire in the Podilskyi district of the capital region, the head of Kyiv’s military administration, Serhiy Popko, said in a Telegram post.

In Lviv, which borders Poland, the head of the regional military administration said that at least 15 people had been injured, with damage reported in 13 residential buildings and two schools. The National Basketball Federation later announced that one of the country’s most celebrated basketball players, Viktor Kobzystyi, had died in the strikes on the city.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said he wished the “loud sound of explosions” heard across Ukraine Friday morning “could be heard all around the world.”

“In all major capitals, headquarters, and parliaments, which are currently debating further support for Ukraine. In all newsrooms, which are writing about ‘fatigue’ or Russia purportedly being ready for ‘negotiations,’” he wrote on X.

“These sounds are what Russia really has to say. Our only collective response can and must be continued, robust, and long-term military and financial assistance to Ukraine. Only greater firepower can silence Russian terror.”

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

Russia confirms ‘massive barrage’ on targets in Ukraine

The Russian Defense Ministry has confirmed that its forces launched a series of air attacks against multiple targets in Ukraine in the last week. A statement from the ministry on Friday detailed 50 “group” strikes and a single “massive” barrage using precision missiles and drones.

The ministry described the intended targets as “defense industry sites, military airfield infrastructure and depots for the storage of artillery munitions, naval drones, arms and fuel for military vehicles,” as well as troop positions. All of them were successfully hit, the statement added.

Valery Zaluzhny, the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian armed forces, reported earlier in the day that at least 158 separate launches were detected by Kiev’s troops on Thursday evening and Friday morning. He claimed that of the total, 27 drones and 87 cruise missiles were intercepted.

Ukrainian Air Force spokesman Yury Ignat said in a televised statement that “we have never seen so many targets on our monitors simultaneously.” 

Officials in various parts of the country claimed damage to several warehouses and a metro station in Kiev, among other locations.

** Russian supersonic missiles are unstoppable – Ukraine

Kiev’s forces have been unable to shoot down a single Kh-22 or Kh-32 supersonic cruise missile out of around 300 allegedly launched so far by Russia, Ukrainian Air Force Command spokesperson Yury Ignat has disclosed.

His comments came after Moscow launched a major missile attack against targets across the country over the past two days. The Russian Defense Ministry has confirmed that it carried out 50 “group strikes” as well as a single “massive” barrage using precision missiles and drones this week, targeting defense industry sites as well as military airfields and depots.

One of the biggest challenges for Ukrainian air defense systems is the Russian Kh-22 missile and its modernized variant, the Kh-32, according to Ignat. He explained that the missile travels at a speed of 4,000kph and follows a ballistic trajectory, meaning that intercepting it requires “special equipment” such as the US-made Patriot air defense system. 

The Kh-22 ‘Storm’ is a supersonic long-range air-launched anti-ship cruise missile originally developed in the USSR. The Kh-32 is a deeply modernized version of its predecessor and acts as a supersonic air-to-surface cruise missile with a range of up to 1,000km. 

The air force spokesman claimed that since the launch of Moscow’s military operation in February 2022, Russian forces have fired 300 Kh-22 and Kh-32 rockets across Ukraine. He stated that Ukrainian air defense systems have not been able to intercept a single one of them. 

Kiev has already received several Patriot systems from its Western backers earlier this year. It has reportedly used them to strike targets over the Russian border, despite vowing not to use the donated weapons outside of territories it claims as its own. Last month, the Ukrainian military claimed that it had used the US systems in May to take down five military aircraft in Russia’s Bryansk Region, including two fighter jets and three helicopters. Russia, however, has not confirmed the attacks. 

While Kiev has continued to demand more advanced weapons systems from the US and its allies, Washington has reiterated that it would only provide them on condition that Ukraine does not use them to attack Russian territories. US Army General Mark Milley stressed in May that “this is a Ukrainian war. It is not a war between the United States and Russia. It’s not a war between NATO and Russia.” 

Russia has repeatedly denounced the West over the arms shipments, warning that they will only prolong the fighting and lead to more bloodshed without changing the outcome of the conflict. Moscow has also stressed that any Western arms that make it to Ukraine will be considered legitimate targets and will promptly be destroyed.

CNN/RT

"There are only two families in the world, the Haves and Have-Nots." - Miguel de Cervantes

"A man may imagine things that are false, but he can only understand things that are true." - Isaac Newton

The large crowd I saw at Bourdillon, in front of the house of Bola Tinubu, President of Nigeria and one of the leading politicians who have heavily profited from politics in this political dispensation, made me sad and caused my heart to sink. The long line of crowds of multitudes waiting for crumbs from one of the biggest political profiteers of this era is a reality to what I have been saying for a long time. Poverty is real in the land. But this is not the issue; the real issue is, if nothing is done to arrest this drift, if nothing is done to redirect the economic program and policies in more progressive and practical ways, poverty will envelope everyone soon, - except the very rich.

I have been told and have seen it firsthand myself the truth of what many are saying that this is the worst Christmas in living memory. There is poverty everywhere.

"But there has always been poverty in Nigeria and Jesus said, 'The poor you will always have with you'", some wiseacre who are poor in theology would say. Yes, there has always been poverty in Nigeria; but it is poverty that can be managed. Poverty that most often could be hidden. But now poverty is visible and no one can hide it.

Some well-dressed men gatecrashed to a christening ceremony of a child and begged the woman in charge of food to just give them soup, out of the leftovers. She should not even bother with meat but just only soup which they would take home to make garri. This is not in Hausa or Igboland; it happens here in Yorubaland, and they are Yorubas - land of culture and honour, now under siege of poverty, extreme poverty as a result of gross misrule by pseudo-progressives of APC.

A northern politician once said something that Yorubas ought to ponder seriously if we are still a thinking people. He said if Bola Tinubu had come before Obafemi Awolowo, most Yorubas would be almajiris today.

Did you hear that? I never heard a word so true from the mouth of a politician of the Fourth Republic. If destiny had pushed this man ahead and he was the first then most people in this Yoruba land will be beggars by now. Because everything will be priced out of the reach of the poor: housing, market, schools, colleges, universities, with scholarships only for children of those who are ready to 'ranka dede' him and lick the boot of his aides and foot soldiers.

All over Yorubaland and even Nigeria the reports coming are not good. Poverty, institutional, multi-level, multi- dimensional poverty is on the march and Nigerians are shrinking and shrinking into their holes and shells.

That poverty is on the march is not the issue. That is not the problem. Even as bad as things are they can be turned around. Poverty is not the issue. The real issue, the real trouble that I see now is that there is no political will and no intellectual capacity and moral sagacity to understand the real trouble bedeviling the economy, to arrest and address what Eskor Toyo, the late professor of economics, called "Nigeria's basic economic deformities" and set this nation on the path of progress. And unless this is done, unless the economic war is won, poverty will continue to spread and deepen.

It is not about prayer or confessing positive things. Often times we muddle these things because we neither understand true Religion or Theology and Logic. Theology is compatible with Reason, in point of fact, it is built on it. This is why the more Nigerians pray the poorer they become; because both leaders and followers are operating outside of Reason.

Can I be honest with you? Poverty will be worse in 2024 than even 2023 that people are crying about. Because there is nothing in place to avert recurrence, to arrest the march of poverty, to put people back to jobs, to put industries back in motion. Now Nigeria is on fast pace to de-industrialization. As the currency continues to weaken and more money required to purchase raw materials, the prospect of survival will become narrower and foreign investors will begin to leave amidst other uncertainties.

The same ruinous policies that Buhari pursued for 8 years - borrowing, printing money (ways and means), doling out N20,000 to imaginary beneficiaries and numbers and party members, these are the same policies being pursued by this dumb government. Poverty will continue. Poverty does not end because someone wishes it or prays about it. This is where Nigerians miss it and why they suffer so much. Poverty is arrested by deliberate programs of attack, calculated schemes of intellectual, industrial, moral and financial empowerment, social stability and collective engagement. It requires an assortment of weapons to kill and defeat this hydra-headed enemy of man.

It is war. Poverty must be fought and defeated. Else, we will all lose. I shall come to this at the end.

The more debts increase the lower the quality of currency will be and the more will be required to service existing debts that are matured. Governors who are largely economic illiterates have mapped out strategies to borrow another 2-3 trillions in the new year. They have lost it. The federal government now shells out billions to states on palliative and the states too shell out to those they wish. That is what the largest community of black in the world has become: from hand to mouth. Just borrowing and sharing. An economy based on such transaction is an economy of doom for everyone. It is collective Immiseration.

In a way it serves the political class for people to be poor because it gives them leverage. An economically-empowered and liberated person cannot be told who to vote for. He cannot be pushed to do the bidding of politicians. Because he doesn't need them. Politicians fear and hate such category of persons. They are dangerous; too dangerous to their survival. They possess independent minds and Nigerian politicians don’t like people with independent minds.

That is why democracy is actually designed and can only function best among people who are economically empowered and politically literate. Those two things: economic empowerment and political literacy are crucial.

Poverty serves the interest of Nigerian politicians. The crowds of have-nots thronging their houses and queueing on their streets gives them a sense of empowerment and self- assurance. It boosts their ego, that these "slaves" depend on them for survival and need their favour. That is why they prefer to dole out cash, crumbs to crowds rather than govern well and wipe out poverty among the masses.

We have known cases where as crowds struggle to collect pittance lives were lost. It happened a couple of time in Kwara State during the era of Bukola Saraki where on each occasion as many as 30 people died - over pittance.

I ask the man who shared the Bourdillon video whether the crowds got anything? Nothing, he told me. They got nothing. They would trek back the long distance home on empty stomachs. They have no need of them now. Elections are over and no election is in sight or coming till another four years.  This people are cruel. They have no mercy. They don't care about people as they pretend to be.

Nigerians deserve their fate. Everyone gets what he deserves with leadership.

However, there is something dangerous about this which everyone needs to watch out for. If poverty is not tamed or arrested everyone will lose at the end. Even the rich will also cry. If nothing is done to arrest this rampaging poverty that is spreading all over the land; then there could be a boomerang effect. I don't know what it would be. When a river course is blocked and it is not allowed its natural flow, it will cut out another channel elsewhere and return with vengeance.

These children who are crying to sleep now because of hunger will grow up one day and may join the army or somewhere else. The teenager who is dropping out of university today because his parents could not afford the new fees won't forget and will not forgive. Nigeria is taking a big risk. Who knows where a Jehu or Hitler or Rawlings may spring or come from?

Now there is hunger in the land. That much is certain. Soon hunger will turn to anger and anger will crystallize into popular action, and action to...

It is really amazing that Nigerians have to come to this sorry state under civilians. What excuse will politicians give now for the state of things? That the military spoiled everything and destroyed everything... And 25 years are not enough to undo what the military "destroyed"? Everything of value today that Nigeria has was built by the military - national hospital, Third Mainland Bridge, Aso Rock, Alscon, etc. And they never sold oil for the fraction that  it is now selling today or in the last 24 years. What is the excuse that poverty has deepened in the same period when oil sold for a hundred dollars per barrel under the politicians for a substantial period of time?

Pay day does come. Yes, there shall be a payday. I don't know how but I know eternal principles that cannot fail. Seedtime and harvest won’t cease. The one who sows must also reap. Politicians will reap in full and with compound interest what they have sown in the last 25 years to Nigeria.

When it comes to getting older, there are many factors that help you live a fulfilled, healthy life — ones that go beyond working out and eating your vegetables (although that’s part of it, too).

“Aging well, in my opinion, consists of three different components,” said Parul Goyal, a geriatrician at Vanderbilt Health in Nashville. These categories are physical health, emotional connection and mental support, Goyal said.

These elements come together to help you live a life that’s rewarding, lively and healthful. Doctors say there are lots of behaviors that contribute to your physical, emotional and mental health as you grow older, and some clear signs that you’re taking care of yourself in these ways.

Below, geriatricians share the indicators that someone is aging well, along with a little advice if you feel like you’re not hitting the mark.

You take time to learn new things

The older we get, the less chances we have to absorb new information; many of us are far out of school or work. The opportunities to learn are limited if those opportunities aren’t sought out.

“We also look at their cognitive health in this ... making sure that they are staying mentally strong, they are using their mind, they are engaging in exercises to stimulate their mind, which means they are learning like a new skill,” Goyal said.

She encourages her patients to learn something new, whether it’s a new game, exercise, language or musical instrument.

“That will help form new pathways in the brain so that they can continue to stay cognitively strong,” she said.

You’re honest about your needs

“So often, people don’t age well because they’re not upfront about what their needs are,” said Robyn Golden, the associate vice president of social work and community health at Rush University Medical Center in Chicago. “How do we make it OK for people to say, ‘This is what I need, I’m feeling lonely, I need someone to go out with on a Tuesday night.’”

Rampant ageism makes it easy for people to feel like a burden or invisible, Golden said, which can encourage silent suffering. But it’s important to push against that and let folks know when you’re having a tough time. So if you’re someone who can share your thoughts and needs with your family and friends, that’s a good sign.

What’s more, if you’re struggling with depression and anxiety, it’s important to let your doctor know. There’s often a false belief that anxiety or depression after a certain age is more “normal,” but Golden said this is not true.

“Depression can be treated at any age, and not just with medication, with counseling, with group interventions, you name it. So, I think that’s part of how you age well, being open to being able to say, ‘This is who I am, this is what I need,’” she explained.

You have a community

Loneliness and isolation are a big problem, so much so that the surgeon general of the United States declared an epidemic of isolation and loneliness throughout the country.

“As you know, with the Covid pandemic, this has become really important. There was a lot of social isolation among our geriatric patients because they were confined to their homes,” Goyal said.

To combat feelings of loneliness and isolation, it’s important to bolster your social connections, whether that’s with friends, family, your church group or your community, she said.

There isn’t one right way to connect with your community, either. Golden said this could look like anything from volunteering at a local food bank to helping a neighborhood child learn to read.

Socializing can help your brain health, too, said Dr. Lee Lindquist, the chief of geriatrics at Northwestern Medicine in Chicago.

“We think of the brain as a muscle, so if you sit in a room with four walls all day and not talk to anybody, you’re almost living in a nursing home ... your brain is going to go to sludge because it’s not getting any stimulation,” Lindquist said.

Socializing, whether that’s talking to people in person or on the phone, interacting with folks on Zoom or joining a book club, is a way to exercise your brain and make it stronger, said Lindquist.

You prioritize your physical health

Eating nutritious foods and exercising are important all throughout your life, including when you reach an older age.

Goyal said she talks with her patients about eating a healthy diet that is rich in fruits and vegetables, and one that aligns with a combination of a Mediterranean diet and a DASH (Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension) diet. According to Goyal, the DASH diet is “a low sodium diet that is recommended for people that have high blood pressure.” The Mediterranean diet is a well-studied meal plan that is full of whole grains, healthy fats, lean meat and plant-based foods.

Drinking enough water is also part of this, Goyal said. And, beyond what you eat and drink, it’s important to keep yourself physically fit, too.

“I want people to keep moving, exercising. If you haven’t moved in a long time, or you’ve been sitting down for a long time, it’s sometimes useful to ask your doctors for a physical therapy order to help you with your gait and balance,” said Lindquist.

He noted that many of us may be afraid to move around as we get older because of a fear of falling, but exercising — whether you’re walking or joining a tai chi class — can help with your fall risk.

“Because what happens is if we choose not to walk or choose not to move, then it puts you at a higher risk for falling. So it’s almost like a catch-22,” added Lindquist.

When exercising, Goyal said it’s also important to work on your muscle strength, since muscle mass is lost as you age. Lifting weights, pilates, yoga and tai chi can all be a part of a good muscle-building exercise routine, Goyal said. Additionally, cardio fitness — like walking, biking, swimming and running — are important for your heart health.

You do things you enjoy

“I love people who are doing activities and enjoying life, and doing it in a way that brings them enjoyment,” Lindquist said.

It’s not realistic to think that you’ll never deal with an illness or an injury, but that doesn’t mean you can’t do the things you love to do, whether that’s traveling, learning new recipes or playing games with your family.

“From my end, people get chronic illnesses throughout their life, but it’s all about managing their care and doing the best they can,” Lindquist added.

And if you’re doing things you enjoy, you likely won’t find yourself bored, and boredom can be a red flag as you age, Golden explained. “Feeling like the day is very, very long is not a good sign.”

Hobbies, volunteer work and spending time with loved ones are all good ways to combat boredom. 

You talk to your doctor about the medications you take

Just because you were prescribed one medication in your 50s doesn’t mean it’s still serving you 20, 30 or 40 years later. 

“Many times, we end up taking too many medicines for what we actually need,” Lindquist said. “Your body is always changing, it may not need [certain] meds.”

She said it’s important to talk to your doctor about de-prescribing any unnecessary medications. For example, if you were prescribed medication for stress when you were working in your 50s, you may not need it after you retire.

“And so it may be that they don’t need these medicines, or that these medicines might actually be bad for them as they get older. So, it’s imperative that you talk to your physician [or] a geriatrician ... specifically looking at what drugs are unnecessary or can be dangerous as you get older,” Lindquist noted.

You plan for the future

“The other thing I always tell people is to plan ahead because as much as we all want to age well into our hundreds, healthy and happily, there is a very good chance that something might happen that you need to be hospitalized, or that you might need more support in your home,” Lindquist said.

It’s important to talk to your family and friends about what you want to happen if you are hospitalized, if you fall or if you experience memory loss. This way, your loved ones will be prepared if any unplanned, stressful situations occur.

“It’s not planning for end of life, which is like hospice, or [planning] you’re going to die in six months ― this is planning for the 20 years before you need help,” Lindquist explained. This is a way to ensure your voice is heard as you get older, and that those around you don’t make decisions for you.

This could look like having a conversation with your kids about what kind of support you want if you get to a point where you can’t care for yourself. Or it could look like talking with your partner about downsizing to a one-story house that won’t require frequent stair use.

Lindquist said it’s good to start this kind of planning when you retire, but it’s also important to know that these plans may change as your life progresses, and that is OK. As plans change, it’s crucial that you keep the conversation going and inform your loved ones.

If you need future-planning advice or tips on how to talk to loved ones about these potentially stressful conversations, Lindquist and her colleagues created Plan Your Lifespan, a free future-planning resource for older adults that’s backed by research, studies and funding from the National Institutes of Health.

If you haven’t done any of these things yet — or you haven’t prioritized them like you should — don’t panic. Now is always a good time to begin; the sooner you start focusing on these things the better. And even if you still think you have time, Goyal stressed that you still should make these behaviors a priority.

“The important thing I want to really communicate with this topic is that oftentimes people will ask me this question: ‘How do I age well?’ when they’re well in their 60s or their 70s,” Goyal said. “I really want people to start thinking about aging well from the time they’re in their 30s and their 40s.”

If you start focusing on healthy habits earlier in your life, you can carry them along into your golden years, Goyal said. Additionally, as you age, don’t focus so much on the number. That has nothing to do with aging well.

“Chronological age doesn’t mean a whole lot — so, 65, 75, 85, it’s how you’re feeling that makes that difference, not that number,” Golden said.

If you prioritize your relationships, your physical health, your mental health and your future plans, you’ll be set up to feel good no matter what year you were born.

HuffPost

Invaders have threatened fresh attacks on a community in Plateau State on Friday (today), barely four days after they killed 195 persons in 17 communities across the state.

Deputy National Publicity Secretary of the Middle Belt Forum, Stanley Kavwam, in an interview with Arise Television on Thursday,  said the terrorists had sent a letter of an imminent attack to the Pushit community in the Mangu Local Government Area, where he hailed from.

When asked about the impending attack on the Pushit community, the Police Public Relations Officer in the state, Alabo Alfred, told our correspondent that the command was aware of the threat.’’We have intelligence, but we are working on it “the PPRO assured.

Also, some residents in Pushit, who spoke to one of our correspondents on Thursday,  said the villagers were aware of the threat letter by the terrorists.

According to them, since the information of the impending attack spread, the residents no longer sleep at night.

Villagers beg govt

One of the villagers, Joshua Bukat, in an interview with our correspondent, said “ Here in the village, we have been living in fear since the news spread that terrorists are planning to launch a fresh attack on our community. From the letter, the terrorists said we would be running in the street with chicken and Christmas rice in our hands.

“As a matter of fact, we hardly sleep because we don’t know when they will come. This is not the first time they would send such letters of their plans to attack and on several occasions, they had carried out their threat. So, please help us to tell the government and the security agents to come to our rescue. They should act quickly to save lives and not take the threat for granted.”

The shocking revelation is coming as the United Nations demanded a probe of the Christmas Eve attack in which 195 persons were killed in 17 villages in the Barkin Ladi, Mangu, and Bokkos local government areas of the state.

The well-coordinated attacks also displaced over 10,000 persons, many of whom were presently taking refuge in churches, mosques, schools, and private residences.

Chairman of Community Peace Observers in the Bokkos Local Government Area, Kefas Mallai, on Tuesday, said over 150 persons were killed by the gunmen.

Mallai also said information indicated that the gunmen were still attacking some villages, adding that over 10,000 people were displaced by the attacks.

On Wednesday, there were reports that the death toll had increased to 195.

In an interview on Channels Television on Tuesday, state Governor, Caleb Mutfwang, disclosed that no fewer than 64 communities in the state had been displaced by terrorists who were occupying schools in the local government area.

Speaking in an interview on Arise television on Thursday, the Middle Belt Forum Deputy National Publicity Secretary, Kavwam said the terrorists were planning to launch an attack on his village,  Pushit,  on December 29 (today).

Kavwam claimed the military was aware of the identity of the attackers and their hideouts, adding that the security agencies knew that an attack would be launched before the Christmas Eve massacre.

He stated, “While driving down from Jos to this place, I received a call. A letter was sent to my village by the terrorists that the attackers were going to invade on the 29th of this December (today).

“All the attacks that were orchestrated, there were letters to that effect that were dropped by an anonymous person, intimating the residents of the Mangu LGA that there would be attacks.”

Kavwam added that the military was informed before and during the Christmas Eve attacks.

“They received about 37 distress calls, that is ‘Operation Safe Haven’ or the Joint Task Force. About 37 distress calls!! Yet nothing was done,’’ he stated.

He added, “They know where they orchestrate the attacks from. The autonomous community called Manga is at the foot of Bokkos hills, bordering Wamba in Nasarawa State to the south; It’s this autonomous community from where these attacks are orchestrated from, just the same way we have in the Mandara hills in Borno State.

Govt reponsibility

“Section 14B of the 1999 constitution as amended stipulates that the welfare and security of the people shall be the primary purpose of government. These attacks could last for as long as 12 to 24 hours and there is no security presence whatsoever.’’

When asked to name the community the gunmen threatened to attack, he stated, “Pushit community in the Mangu LGA of Plateau State; A letter was sent today (Thursday) to Pushit that they are going to attack on the 29th.”

He added that despite President Bola Tinubu’s directive to service chiefs to intensify security in the affected communities, “nothing has changed and the attacks are still going on and there is no response from the security authorities.”

The MBF deputy publicity secretary further stated, “General TY Danjuma alleged that the military colluded with these insurgents or terrorists to unleash terror on unsuspecting innocent citizens. The entire Nigerian space was caught up with a lot of, I mean, all manner of accusations, name-calling, and all of that. Are we not seeing that happening today?’’

“Let me give you a classical example. How could a community be invaded, the inhabitants dislodged, and that community is renamed and they still inhabit that community and the security agencies do not do anything about that?’’

He added seven communities in the state had been renamed by the attackers.

Kavwam lamented that his people were being hunted and massacred in cold blood without any official intervention to halt the attacks.

Illustrating his claims, he explained that the number of displaced persons had exploded due to frequent attacks on hapless communities.

He said, “In the Mangu Local Government Area, for instance, the IDP (internally displaced persons) camps keep exploding. With what? With internally displaced persons who come to those camps. There is no psychosocial support whatsoever. Imagine the trauma of losing your means of livelihood, losing your children, and everything that perhaps you depend on.

“Yet, there is no rehabilitation whatsoever, no psychosocial support. They can hardly even feed some of them. They have wards in school and they had their education cut off. And at the end of the day, the government should ordinarily realize that we are all citizens of this country and we should be treated equally.’’

The MBF official accused the security agencies of not doing enough to stop the attacks arguing that the insurgents often give warnings.

“There is no way the security can absolve itself from liability because they (insurgents) do announce before they come. They come in thousands. How could 1,000 people invade the local government area? And there are security agencies in all of those areas. How do they manage to pass and how do they acquire their weapons?’’ Kavwam asked.

Responding to the alleged plot by terrorists to attack the Pushit community, the state Commissioner for Information, Musa Ashoms, said he would inform Governor Caleb Mutfwang about the threat for possible action.

“I will draw the governor’s attention to it right away,” the commissioner stated.

But the UN human rights chief, Volker Turk, reinforced the urgent need for an investigation into the incident.

Turk in a statement Thursday said the global body was deeply alarmed by the recent killings in Plateau State.

He called on the Nigerian authorities to investigate the incident and bring the perpetrators to justice.

“I am deeply alarmed by the series of attacks by gunmen on multiple rural communities in Plateau State.

“I call on the Nigerian authorities to investigate this incident promptly, thoroughly, and independently, consistent with international human rights law, and to hold those responsible to account in fair trials.

 “The cycle of impunity fuelling recurrent violence must be urgently broken. The government should also take meaningful steps to address the underlying root causes and to ensure non-recurrence of this devastating violence,” the AFP quoted him to have said.

Punch

Oil prices are set to end 2023 about 10% lower, the first annual decline in two years, after geopolitical concerns, production cuts and global measures to rein in inflation triggered wild fluctuations in prices.

Brent crude futures were up 18 cents, or 0.2%, at $77.33 a barrel at 0126 GMT on Friday, the last trading day of 2023, while the U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were trading 11 cents higher at $71.88 a barrel in early Asian trade.

At these levels, both benchmarks are on track to close at the lowest year-end levels since 2020, when the pandemic battered demand and sent prices nosediving.

Oil is also on track to fall for the third straight month due to demand concerns outweighing the risks to supply from the Middle East conflict, and as production cuts have proved insufficient to prop up prices, with the benchmarks declining nearly 20% from their highest level this year.

Prices had surged to this year-high in September after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies agreed to cut production, triggering fears that demand was potentially higher than supply.

On Friday, oil prices stabilised after falling 3% the previous day as more shipping firms prepared to transit the Red Sea route. Major firms had stopped using Red Sea routes after Yemen's Houthi militant group began targeting vessels.

Measures by governments and central banks across the world to arrest high inflation also kept a lid on oil prices and quickly offset any price spikes.

However, expected interest rate cuts in major consuming regions in 2024 and a weaker dollar are seen boosting oil demand, investors and analysts say.

Reuters

Israeli tanks, missiles strike Gaza in offensive against Hamas

Israeli forces attacked areas of the central and southern Gaza Strip where residents have been expecting a renewed ground offensive in areas crammed with tens of thousands of Palestinians already displaced by the Israeli-Hamas war.

With nightfall on Thursday, an Israeli airstrike on a house in the southern city of Khan Younis killed eight Palestinians, health officials said. Three Palestinians were killed and six injured in an Israeli missile strike on a house in Maghazi camp in central Gaza, the Palestine Red Crescent said.

"The task here is to dismantle Hamas - so that it no longer has military and governing capabilities," Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant said at a press briefing on operations in Khan Younis. "We will be required to show a lot of perseverance and determination."

A Palestinian journalist posted pictures of Israeli tanks near a mosque in a built-up area of Bureij in central Gaza.

The Islamist group Hamas released video it said showed its fighters targeting Israeli tanks and soldiers east of Bureij. Reuters was not able to verify the location or the date the video was filmed.

"That moment has come, I wished it would never happen, but it seems displacement is a must," said Omar, 60, who said he had been forced to move with at least 35 family members. He declined to give his surname for fear of reprisals.

Yamen Hamad has been living in a school in Deir al-Balah, also in central Gaza, since fleeing from the north. He said people newly displaced from Bureij and Nusseirat were setting up tents wherever there was open ground.

In one of Israel's latest airstrikes, 20 Palestinians were killed and 55 wounded in Rafah, a major town near the southern border with Egypt, Gaza health ministry spokesman Ashraf Al-Qidra said. Their bombed building was housing displaced civilians, according to local medics and residents.

A Palestinian was shot dead by Israeli security forces, Palestinian authorities said, after stabbing two security personnel at a checkpoint near Jerusalem on Thursday. Israeli police said the personnel were mildly injured.

Hamas praised the attack and in a statement said: "we call on our people in the West Bank and occupied territories to intensify operations and confrontations with the Zionist enemy."

The conflict has also rippled across the Middle East, notably with Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen attacking commercial vessels in the Red Sea to show their support for Hamas.

On Thursday, the U.S. military said it shot down one drone and one anti-ship ballistic missile in the Southern Red Sea that were fired by Houthis in the 22nd attempted attack on international shipping since Oct. 19.

There was no damage to any of the 18 ships in the area nor reported injuries, U.S. Central Command said on X website.

SEARCHING THROUGH RUBBLE

Reuters video showed rescuers scrabbling frantically through rubble to uncover and pull out victims including a baby and several children and rushing them through milling crowds of dazed and weeping people to the nearby Kuwaiti Hospital.

Palestinian health authorities said earlier that 210 people were confirmed killed in Israeli strikes in the past 24 hours, raising the toll of Palestinians killed in the war so far to 21,320 - nearly 1% of Gaza's population. Thousands more dead were feared to be buried or lost in the ruins.

Over the course of the war, the Israeli military has expressed regret for civilian deaths but it accuses Hamas of operating in densely populated areas and using civilians as human shields, a charge the group denies.

Hamas and its fighters are dug deep into the Gaza Strip's dense cities and towns and their leaders are still at large.

Israel has reported 169 of its soldiers killed in its Gaza campaign after Hamas fighters rampaged through Israeli towns in a cross-border raid on Oct. 7, killing 1,200 people and taking about 240 hostages.

Some 110 hostages were freed during a Nov. 24-Dec. 1 humanitarian pause and more than 20 others have been declared dead.

U.S. President Joe Biden said on Thursday that Hamas killed an American hostage, Judith Weinstein, 70, on Oct. 7. Last week he said her husband Gadi Haggai, 73, was killed on the same day.

The Israeli military released findings of an investigation into the killings in error by its troops of three Israeli hostages in Gaza on Dec. 15. Soldiers mistook their cries for help as a ruse by Hamas militants to draw them into an ambush, the military said, concluding that the soldiers acted rightly to the best of their understanding.

EGYPT'S PLAN TO END CONFLICT

Egypt confirmed that it had put forward a framework proposal to end the conflict between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip that includes three stages ending with a ceasefire and said it was awaiting responses on the plan.

The proposal is an attempt "to bring viewpoints between all concerned parties closer, in an effort to stop Palestinian bloodshed and the aggression against the Gaza Strip and restore peace and stability to the region," Diaa Rashwan, head of Egypt's State Information Service, said in a statement.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said Israel will keep some form of security control of all Gaza indefinitely, though he insists that this would not amount to reoccupying the enclave.

Reuters

WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

What to know after Day 673 of Russia-Ukraine war

Ukraine's Zelenskiy says he discussed peace formula with Pope

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said he discussed Ukraine's peace formula in a call with Pope Francis on Thursday.

"We discussed our joint work to put Ukraine's Peace Formula into action," Zelenskiy said in a post on X, formerly Twitter.

"Over 80 countries are already involved in this process at the level of their representatives. And there will be more of them," he added.

Zelenskiy said he thanked Francis for his Christmas greetings "as well as his wishes for a just peace for all of us."

Zelenskiy has said that Ukraine's peace formula will next be discussed in Davos, Switzerland, but has not given a date.

As part of his peace efforts on Ukraine, the pope has sent a special envoy, Italian Cardinal Matteo Zuppi, to Kyiv, Moscow, Washington and Beijing.

In his Christmas Day message, the pope called for an end to multiple conflicts, including the one in Ukraine. In November, in a renewal of his persistent calls for an end to violence in Ukraine and the Middle East, he said "peace is possible" and that "we must not resign ourselves."

Zelenskiy said in October that he had invited Francis to Kyiv. The Ukrainian leader met privately with the pope at the Vatican in May.

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

Ukrainian ‘regime’ must be removed – Medvedev

The removal of the Western-backed government of Vladimir Zelensky is an undeclared but a “most important and inevitable goal” of Moscow’s military operation in Ukraine, former President of Russia Dmitry Medvedev has said.

On Thursday, Medvedev, who now holds the position of deputy head of Russia’s Security Council, was asked by RIA-Novosti about the prospects of peace talks between Moscow and Kiev in 2024.

The Russian military operation in Ukraine will continue next year with its goals remaining unchanged, he replied.

According to the former president, those goals include “the disarmament of Ukrainian troops and the rejection of the ideology of neo-Nazism by the current Ukrainian state.”

“The removal of the ruling Banderovite regime isn’t being openly declared, but it's the most important and inevitable goal that must and will be achieved,” he said, referring to the Zelensky government.

‘Banderovite’ relates to Stepan Bandera (1909-1959), a Ukrainian nationalist leader who collaborated with the Nazis during World War II and is now revered as a hero by authorities in Kiev.

“Odessa, Dnepropetrovsk, Kharkov, Nikolaev, Kiev, they are Russian cities, like many others under temporary occupation [by Ukraine]. All of them are marked in yellow and blue on paper maps and electronic tablets, for now,”Medvedev said.

About talks, they are “of course, possible,” he acknowledged, adding that “Russia never rejected them, unlike the insane Ukrainian authorities.” The former president stressed, however, that Moscow has no deadline for any negotiations and that these may proceed all the way until “the complete defeat and capitulation” of the NATO-backed Ukrainian forces.

On Wednesday, Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that the authorities in Moscow “identify a lack of drive for peace on the part of the Zelensky regime. His representatives think in terms of war and use very aggressive rhetoric.”

The US and the EU remain committed to “containing Russia with the hands and bodies of Ukrainians” and realize that without aid from these sources the Kiev government “is doomed,” the minister said.

He also recalled that, more than a year ago, Zelensky officially banned himself from negotiating with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin.

Instead, the Ukrainian leader has been promoting his so-called ten-point peace plan, which calls for Russia to withdraw from all territories claimed by Kiev, for Moscow to pay reparations, and for the formation of a war-crimes tribunal. Russian authorities instantly rejected the proposal as “unrealistic”and out-of-touch with the situation on the ground.

Reuters/RT

“Subsidy on petrol will go, sparking initial higher prices and demand for higher public sector wages by union leaders who know the truth but prefer to play to the gallery. To tackle the scandalous difference between the official and black-market exchange rates, expect the new government to adjust the official rate from the current N430-450/$ to around N550/$ in the first instance”

– What You Might Expect in 2023, December 29, 2022

This is my fourth forecast since 2019. Apart from a few occasions when I have had eggs in my face from unforeseen events like that wrecking ball called Covid-19 and the African surprise at the last World Cup being Morocco instead of Senegal or Algeria, I have, on the whole, been on the mark.

This year, I’m starting with sports. Arsenal fans are currently over the moon, testosterone pumping – and why not? But they would do well to pay attention. After 20 years of a winless, Premier League trophy run, this, at last, feels like the year when the London club would break the jinx.

Everything is going well, so far. The team is better organised, far better disciplined - in and off the field - the defence is tighter, the attack deadlier, and all without a loss of flair. Also, the desire has never been stronger. But that, roughly speaking, has been the story of the last two decades at the Emirates – a story of nearly there.

That story will not change in 2024. I wish it would for the sake of the millions of broken red hearts strewn along the way over two decades. But the odds are not in Arsenal’s favour. The team has more depth but it still suffers a congenital momentary loss of focus when it matters most.

With about half the games already played, there’s still something about Liverpool and Manchester City — that streak of stubborn, resilient fighting spirit — that could lift either of them over Arsenal and multiply the misery of its fans, yet again.

Humble pie

I started with football because 2024 appears to hold less intensity for Nigeria’s usual obsession: politics. In 2023, we had four years’ worth of politics in one year. Apart from a number of senior lawyers in particular who also made four years’ worth of money in one year, swathes of the political elite are broke, exhausted and stranded. In 2024, they would be desperate for rehabilitation. Otherwise, their teeming supporters will dissipate and their misery will be complete.

Before June, some top politicians who had been discreetly reaching out to President Bola Tinubu for favours, would be obliged to take their fate in their own hands and pursue their ambition more openly and less shamelessly. By the end of the year, the scramble for presidential favours would leave an already fragmented opposition in a shambles.

Edo, Ondo and Kano

Of course, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) is planning re-runs and bye-elections in a few senatorial districts, 11 federal constituencies and 22 state assemblies. My bet is that there would be no surprises. If anything, the bye-elections for two or three senatorial seats would increase the advantage of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) in the National Assembly, while state assemblies would record more of the same.

In September and November, governorship elections would hold in two states – Edo and Ondo. Edo State Governor Godwin Obaseki who assumed office in his first term as an APC governor, but switched parties in his second, would attempt to hand over to a People’s Democratic Party (PDP) successor. It’s an election that promises plenty of drama.

Amongst others on a list of direct and shadow contenders that appears to be lengthening by the day, Obaseki would be up against his former godfather, Adams Oshiomhole, who is currently an APC senator; his “interim godfather”, Nyesom Wike, a federal minister who is neither in the PDP nor in the APC; and his deputy, Philip Shauib, who has been in rebellion for the most part of their second term.

Obaseki is counting on a number of factors, among others, to help him hand over to his preferred successor and former Chairman of Sterling Bank, Asue Ighodalo:

1) the governor’s record of reforms in the civil service;

2) improvements in private sector investments in the state, especially in the energy sector; 3) doubling the state’s internally generated revenue from around N1.8 billion in 2016;

4) expectation that Ighodalo’s private sector experience would be Obaseki 2.0; and

5) advantage of an all-PDP local government formation.

My forecast is that despite setting his ducks in a row, Obaseki’s candidate would lose in September. His biggest undoing would be the large army of political enemies he has created in the last eight years – some inevitably from the reforms he introduced; but others, and in a far larger number, avoidably from his mean-spirited, opportunistic politics.

All politics is local. But if – and that’s a big if – the APC plays its card well, Edo would find in September a coalescence of local and external foes with old, fairly old, and new grudges ranged against Obaseki’s candidate in a fury that would result in a hostile takeover.

The biggest danger to APC’s victory is Oshiomhole. After cornering virtually all federal appointments to Edo North to the displeasure of many, the South, which is the state’s vote bank could enact a Labour Party surge by pressing a candidate from its zone. Except the APC finds an overwhelmingly appealing candidate, the party could be in for a surprise.

Ondo would be different. After months of a war of attrition with late Governor Rotimi Akeredolu that finally saw Lucky Aiyedatiwa becoming acting governor – and now governor – it’s improbable that he would lose the election to any challenger, whether from his party or not.

He fought his election war in advance. The battle between now and November would consist largely in mopping up the snippers. Of course, there would be contenders, both from the remnant of Akeredolu’s supporters and others, including Jimoh Ibrahim. But it’s unlikely that Aiyedatiwa won the war of attrition only to lose it in subsidiary skirmishes.

As for Kano, the Supreme Court has up till January 15 to give its ruling. History does not favour Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf. As I said in a recent article on this matter, in the last over 20 years, there have been only a few cases where the two lower courts ruled in one way and the Supreme Court overturned them. It would be easier to reach the summit of Kilimanjaro on a paper kite than to expect an exception in the matter at hand.

Economic outlook

Politics promises bread, but economics bakes it and also decides how it is served. Tinubu has weathered serious storms in the last seven months at the helm. In the new year, he will be bolder, more sure-footed – and yes, be obliged to make a few changes to his cabinet by his one-year anniversary.

His biggest headache will remain the economy. With inflation at 27.3 percent, the naira depreciated by over 50 percent in six months, and unemployment trending up, any gains in 2024 would be marginal. The naira, still artificially sustained, would slide further and could close the year at 1500/USD in the black market, except if earnings from oil and gas rise fast enough to shore it up – an unlikely prospect with the chaos in OPEC and US’s all-time high production.

The silver lining could be in agriculture where food inflation could drop from the current 32 percent, if weather patterns are favourable and with improvements in the security situation in the country’s food belt.

For the troubled Central Bank of Nigeria that has, regardless, promised price stability in 2024, the report of the investigator would dominate discussions, but the leak might prove more damaging to any intended redress. Once vested interests on both sides enter the arena, they will muddy the waters and undermine confidence not just in the final outcome, but also in any possibility that there would be consequences.

Don’t expect much from the real sector this year for one main reason: power. Even if Nigeria’s four hydro-dams generate up to 2k megawatts combined, which they could produce but are currently unable to do so, the transmission, still in government hands, remains a nightmare.

As for the gas supply, there’s simply no gas. The Nigerian Gas Company is debt-ridden and the current market structure does not encourage private investment. More disruptions and outages loom for homes and industry.

And by the way, anyone expecting relief in petrol supply or a drop in the pump prices, is on a long wait. Largely as a result of technical and supply chain issues, the government refineries, if they start production at all, would not do so before the third or fourth quarter, and the Dangote refinery may not commence limited production till after the first quarter.

Sunak sunset, Trump eclipse

Outside Nigeria, it’s a big year for elections around the world – in fact, the biggest in decades. Two are of particular interest: the UK and the US. In the UK, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has finished his job as “a stabiliser,” after the catastrophic failures of Boris Johnson and Liz Truss. For reasons more real than apparent, Keith Stammer will win; but the “owners of the UK” would find out soon enough that they had traded an apple for a lemon.

As for the US, The Economist has framed the 2024 presidential contest as one between two unpopular candidates. Fair point. I wager that even though Donald Trump’s mounting legal challenges might increase both his popularity and unpopularity, he will lose to Joe Biden in November in yet another bitter contest that finally retires him to Mar-a-Lago.

Even though Trump’s candidacy will excite sentiments that would move US politics closer to the centre, voters would likely decide that one Trump tenure was enough for the monster created in America’s Frankenstein moment.

** Ishiekwene is Editor-In-Chief of LEADERSHIP