The recent revelation by Chief of Naval Staff Emmanuel Ikechukwu Ogalla that Nigeria's crude oil output has increased to between 1.6 and 1.7 million barrels per day is a welcome development. This improvement, attributed to enhanced security measures, underscores the critical role of effective law enforcement in safeguarding the nation's most valuable resource. However, it also serves as a stark reminder of the persistent challenge of crude oil theft that has plagued Nigeria for far too long.

The fact that increased surveillance and enforcement can yield such significant results – a rise from 1.2 million barrels per day in February to the current levels – is both encouraging and concerning. It demonstrates that with proper commitment and resources, the government can indeed combat this scourge. Yet, it also raises questions about why such measures were not implemented sooner and more comprehensively.

The Navy's deployment of 12 vessels to protect oil production and the arrest of over 16 vessels involved in illegal activities are commendable steps. However, these actions should be the norm rather than the exception. The blockade of channels for selling illegally refined petroleum products is another positive move, but it must be sustained and expanded.

To truly address this issue, we propose a more aggressive and accountable approach. Navy Commanders and allied security officers should be given specific targets for preventing oil theft, with their commissions tied to these performance metrics. This would create a direct incentive for these officers to maintain vigilance and integrity in their duties.

The stakes could not be higher. The value of the Naira, the supply of crude oil for local refineries, the country's finances, and numerous other crucial economic parameters are directly tied to our ability to stem this theft. The potential for Nigeria to produce up to 6 million barrels of oil per day, as suggested by Oil Minister Heineken Lokpobiri, remains a distant dream if the government cannot secure current production.

Moreover, the exodus of major oil companies like Shell underscores the urgency of creating a secure and stable environment for oil production. The country cannot afford to lose more investors due to the persistent threat of theft and insecurity.

The government must prioritize this issue, allocating more resources and political will to combat oil theft. This includes not only enhancing security measures but also addressing the root causes of the problem, such as corruption within the security agencies themselves and the lack of economic opportunities in oil-producing regions.

In conclusion, while the recent increase in oil production is a positive sign, it should serve as a catalyst for more comprehensive and sustained action. The future of Nigeria's economy depends on government’s ability to protect and maximize the benefits of the country’s oil resources. It's time for a zero-tolerance approach to oil theft, backed by accountability, incentives, and unwavering commitment from all levels of government and security forces. Only then can we hope to realize the full potential of our nation's most valuable asset.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

Wale Edun, minister of finance and coordinating minister of the economy, says Nigeria currently spends $600 million on petrol importation monthly.

Edun spoke on Tuesday during an interview on AIT’s Moneyline programme.

The minister, however, reiterated that there is no petrol subsidy in the 2024 budget.

“The fuel subsidy was removed May 29, 2023, by Mr President, and at that time, the poorest of 40 percent was only getting four percent of the value, and basically, they were not benefitting at all. So it was going to be just a few,” he said.

“Another point that I think is important is that nobody knows the consumption in Nigeria of petroleum. We know we spend $600 million every month on importation but the issue here is that all the neighbouring countries are benefitting.

“So we are buying not for just for Nigeria, we are buying for countries to the east, almost as far as Central Africa, north and west. 

“And so we have to ask ourselves as Nigerians, how long do we want to do that for and that is the key issue regarding the issue of petroleum pricing.”

Edun said the nation must take a decisive step to tackle the problem as it impedes economic growth.

‘IMPORT DUTIES SUSPENSION WILL NOT UNDERMINE LOCAL FARMERS’

While speaking on the welfare of Nigerians, Edun said the current administration’s key priority is to ensure food availability and affordability, hence the recent suspension of tax and duties on the importation of food commodities.

He assured that the measure will not undermine local farmers, as importation will only be permitted after exhausting local supplies.

“There is a concerted effort to ensure that we have homegrown food available. In the short term, apart from what is being distributed from reserves, there is a window that has been opened for importation because the commitment of Mr. President is to drive down those prices now and make food available now,” he said.

“So, one of the conditions for this importation will be that everything available locally in the markets or with the millers and so forth has been taken up. We will have auditors that will check that.”

Edun said these interventions seek to reduce inflation, stabilise exchange rates, and lower interest rates, thereby creating a conducive environment for investment and job creation.

“With the kind of food production programme we have, inflation will come down as prices come down. When inflation comes down, exchange rate will stabilise. Interest rates will come down and the economy will have a chance,” he said.

“People will have a chance at reasonable rates to invest in various sectors of the economy, increase productivity, grow the economy and create jobs which is the key to reducing poverty.”

On the issue of the N570 billion recently released to state governments, Edun said it was a reimbursement under the COVID financing protocol.

“This actually refers to a reimbursement that they received from December last year onwards and it was a reimbursement I think under the Covid financing protocol,” he said.

“But the point is that the states have received more money. They have received more money. We have to do our research.”

‘WINDFALL TAX WILL REDISTRIBUTE UNEARNED INCOME’

Edun said the introduction of the 70 percent windfall tax in the banking industry will redistribute unearned income.

The minister said the windfall tax was not peculiar to Nigeria alone, adding that it is “done everywhere else in the world where you have, especially the energy sector as well as banking”.

“Where you have unearned income, where you have a section of the society or an industry or a set of companies that earn money through no dint of hard work of their own, the society deserves a chance to share some of that and it’s just a redistribution of that,” he said.

“So I think that takes care of the issue of the windfall levy.”

Speaking on the recent rise in the maximum borrowing percentage in the Ways and Means advances from 5 percent to 10 percent, Edun said the move does not imply that the federal government will rely on the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) financing.

Edun described the approval by the national assembly as a “fail-safe” measure.

He said the government had rather used market instruments to manage its debts.

“We have not gone to the central bank to say, please lend the government money to pay its debt, to pay its salaries. That’s Ways and Means,” he said.

“We have not gone. In fact, we have used market instruments to pay down what we owed, and that is a very, very germane aspect of having a strong economy.

“Sometimes it just gives that extra flexibility so that if a payment needs to be made and there’s a mistiming, there’s a gap between the time at which the revenue will come in and the expenses needed, you can just draw down briefly.”

The minister said the aim is to act within the law.

The Cable

Some state governments and private sector investors are pumping over $10 billion into the construction of new deep and river seaports.

However, there are concerns from the declining ship traffic and import volume into Nigeria.

The shrinking volume of port business – caused by weaker naira, FX instability, and volatile exchange rate for clearing – is threatening the viability of about seven new port projects currently under different stages of development.

Despite economic headwinds being responsible for a lull in business activities at the ports, state governments and private investors are still betting on the new ports, putting billions of dollars into building them.

Some of those new port projects in Nigeria are: the 300,000 twenty-foot equivalent unit Benin River Port promoted by the Edo State government; the $4.2 billion Ibom Deep Seaport and Free Trade Zone; and the $462 million Bonny Deep Seaport with 500,000 TEUs capacity.

The Ondo State government is also backing the development of the $1.5 billion Ondo Port and Industrial City, while the $2.59 billion Badagry Deep Seaport and the $974 million Snake Island Port are expected in Lagos. This is in addition to the proposed Escravos Seaport Industrial Complex in Delta State.

“With the dip in the economic activities, Nigeria cannot generate import and export cargo to drive businesses in those new port projects. The existing ports, especially those outside Lagos, are grossly underused based on the annual cargo volume,” said Tony Anakebe, a maritime expert.

He said existing seaports such as Rivers, Warri and Calabar ports have been less competitive due to low patronage by shippers.

Anakebe said the government needs to pay more attention to reviving existing ports in the Eastern part of the country by making them competitive.

“We need to consider how to move patronage and operations from the existing port facilities to the new ports,” Anakebe noted.

BusinessDay findings show that a total of 1,566,162 TEUs of containers were brought into the Nigerian seaports in 2023, representing a 6.8 percent decline in volume compared to the 1.68 million recorded in 2022.

Ship traffic into Nigerian ports also witnessed a decline of 4.5 percent to 3,778 vessels in the period under review compared to 3,957 vessels that visited Nigerian ports in 2022.

Also, the number of ships that called at the nation’s ports in the first half (H1) of the year declined by 8.7 percent to 251 from 275 recorded against the same period in 2023, according to data obtained by Vanguard from the Nigerian Port Consultative Council (NPCC).

The volume of vehicles imported into the country declined by 61 percent to 10,991 from 28,024 units in 2023.

Confirming the declining import volume, Adewale Adeniyi, comptroller-general of the Nigeria Customs Service (NCS), said the volume of Single Goods Declarations (SGDs) processed by the NCS in the H1 of 2024 dropped 39 percent to 620,467 against 1,016,508.20 SGDs processed the same period in 2023.

A single goods declaration is an official document that gives details of goods that are either imported or exported. It indicates the wish of the exporters to place goods under a given Customs procedure.

Meanwhile, Bolaji Akinola, chief executive officer of Ships and Ports Communication Company, said that building new seaports in Nigeria in addition to the existing Rivers Port, Calabar Port, Onne Port, Delta Port, Lagos Port Complex Apapa and Tin-Can Island Port, will be an overkill.

He said rather than pour billions of dollars into mega ‘white elephant projects with taxpayers’ money, state governments should put efforts together with the Federal Government to address the shortcomings of the Calabar Port, which includes shallow draft, to attract business and enable it to compete with other ports.

He said it’s not economical for a state government to spend close to $2 billion in building breakwaters, quay walls, quay apron, terminals, acquiring cargo handling equipment, and other port equipment in a new port that might not add value to the state’s economy.

Jonathan Nicole, former president of the Shippers Association of Lagos State told BusinessDay that, “With the rising threat of domestic insecurities and the numerous government interferences in business, some shipping lines are gradually exiting Nigeria to other African ports. The Port of Cotonou and Togo are serving as transit to the landlocked countries like Niger. Ghana is one of the preferred and safe destinations.”

According to him, Senegal and Ivory Coast are receiving modern infrastructural developments due to friendly government regulatory regimes.

“This means that some of our ports will be abandoned as cargo will be discharged at ports with reasonable cost offerings. Our ports will be monuments without enough cargo other than seasonal export cargo,” he said.

Nicole further said that the exit of major manufacturers from Nigeria to other African countries such as Togo, Ghana, and Senegal is also compounding the problem.

He added that unfriendly regulatory regimes are depleting the trade volume by the informal sector and may result in newly developed seaports being less busy or remaining unused.

Businessday

The seventh day of nationwide protests in Nigeria, under the banner of #EndBadGovernance, was marked by tragic incidents, official responses, and strategic shifts by protest organizers. The demonstrations, which began on August 1, 2024, continue to highlight citizens' grievances over economic hardships and government policies.

Key Developments:

1. Military Admits to Fatal Shooting in Zaria:

- The Nigerian Army confirmed that a soldier fatally shot 16-year-old Ismail Mohammed during a protest in Samaru, Zaria, Kaduna State.

- The incident occurred despite an ongoing curfew in the area.

- The army stated that the soldier fired a warning shot that unfortunately resulted in the teenager's death.

- The responsible soldier has been arrested and is under investigation.

2. Protesters Declare Three-Day Mourning Period:

- Organizers announced a three-day mourning period from August 7-9 to honor protesters killed during the demonstrations.

- The mourning period includes online events and a planned public symposium and candlelight procession.

- Organizers cite ongoing safety concerns and alleged collusion between police and state-sponsored thugs as reasons for this strategic shift.

3. Contradictions in Official Statements:

- The Nigerian Army's admission of using live ammunition contradicts earlier statements by the Inspector General of Police, who denied any use of live rounds by security forces.

- This discrepancy has raised questions about transparency and accountability in handling the protests.

4. Allegations of Excessive Force:

- Amnesty International reported findings suggesting deliberate use of lethal force by security personnel against protesters.

- The human rights organization called for a judicial commission of inquiry into the deaths of protesters.

5. Raid on NLC Headquarters:

- Security operatives, suspected to be from the Department of State Services (DSS), reportedly raided the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) headquarters.

- The raid is allegedly connected to accusations that the NLC sponsored the #EndBadGovernance protests.

6. Ongoing Tensions and Government Response:

- President Bola Tinubu previously ordered a crackdown on individuals perceived as threatening democracy.

- Protesters accuse the government of attempting to divide the country and suppress dissent.

7. Casualty Reports and Arrests:

- Organizers claim that over 40 protesters, primarily from northern Nigeria, have been killed since the protests began.

- Hundreds of protesters have reportedly been arrested and detained across the country.

Tense Israel in waiting as attack threat looms

Israel's ambulance service has stocked blood supplies in a fortified underground centre, factories have moved out hazardous materials and municipal authorities are checking bomb shelters and water supplies as the country waits for a threatened attack from Iran and its proxies.

Israel has been fortifying its home front for months and many preparations have been in place since the start of the war in Gaza last October, when thousands of Hamas-led gunmen carried out a devastating cross-border attack on Israeli communities.

But the urgency has risen sharply over the past 10 days as a relatively contained conflict with the Iranian-backed Hezbollah movement in southern Lebanon has threatened to spiral into an all-out regional war.

"I know that the citizens of Israel are on alert, and I ask of you one thing - keep patient and cool," Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Wednesday while meeting new army recruits.

"We are prepared for both defence and attack, we are striking our enemies and are also determined to defend ourselves," he said.

Israel now finds itself facing the threat of a multifront war, confronting a clutch of militant movements - Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis in Yemen, all backed and funded by its longstanding enemy Iran.

An attack is expected in the coming days following vows from Iran and Hezbollah to retaliate for the assassinations last week of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and Hezbollah military commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut.

After months of alarm and an attack by hundreds of Iranian missiles in April that was thwarted by Israel's air defences and the help of international allies, Israelis have become used to the crisis.

Tens of thousands of people were evacuated from northern areas in range of Hezbollah rockets at the start of the war and many border areas now have a ghostly, abandoned air.

But a prolonged bombardment from Hezbollah's rocket arsenal could reach deeper into the country to sensitive targets like the port city of Haifa in northern Israel, which is well in range.

The city's Rambam Hospital has been on alert since last October and has readied its three-floor, fortified underground facility to treat patients.

"We're waiting to see what happens," said David Ratner, a hospital spokesperson.

ALERT SYSTEM

The military is on high alert and last weekend it augmented its nationwide system of air raid sirens and broadcast alerts to include real-time text messages to be sent to residents in targeted areas.

Many local councils have advised residents to reduce non-essential activity, stay near protected areas and avoid large gatherings.

In Haifa, public bomb shelters have been equipped with digital systems so they can be unlocked remotely during an attack, said Yair Zilberman, director of the city's security and emergency services department. They are also being equipped with generators.

A number of underground parking lots have been approved as makeshift shelters with enough space for thousands of residents if needed, Zilberman said.

In the city of Ramla in central Israel, national ambulance service Magen David Adom (MDA) has been collecting blood donations in a subterranean service center, shielded with extra-thick concrete walls, blast doors and airlocks.

"We've got the threats from Iran, we've got threats from Hezbollah," said MDA's Aryeh Myers. "Massive rocket attacks, massive threats to the state of Israel and we want to make sure that we are ready for anything."

Last Thursday, the Environmental Protection Ministry held a situational assessment to decide how best to protect factories with inventories that could be dangerous if targeted in a missile strike, or how to deal with an attack on a building that contains asbestos.

The military said the Home Front Command keeps in constant contact with factories and local authorities to maintain a "complete picture of the inventory levels of hazardous materials".

The Bazan Group, which operates in Haifa one of the largest oil refineries in the eastern Mediterranean, told Reuters it was "working to maintain energy security and the continuity of fuel supply to the economy."

Mass cash withdrawals are another scenario for which authorities are preparing.

"The stock of banknotes and coins in the Bank of Israel and the banking system will, according to every visible forecast, be sufficient," the Bank of Israel said.

Reuters

WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Putin accuses Ukraine of a ‘large-scale provocation’ with its raid in southwestern Russia

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday described a Ukrainian incursion into the country’s southwestern Kursk region as a “large-scale provocation” as his officials asserted that they were fighting off cross-border raids for a second day. Ukrainian officials remained silent about the scope of the operation.

Putin met with his top defense and security officials to discuss what he called the “indiscriminate shelling of civilian buildings, residential houses, ambulances with different types of weapons.” He instructed the Cabinet to coordinate assistance to the Kursk region. The fighting is about 500 kilometers (320 miles) from Moscow.

Army chief of staff Valery Gerasimov told Putin at the meeting via video link that about 100 Ukrainian soldiers had been killed in the battle and more than 200 wounded, Russian news agencies reported.

The Ukrainian shelling, meanwhile, killed at least two people — a paramedic and an ambulance driver — and injured 24, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said in a statement.

It was not possible to independently verify the Russian claims. Disinformation and propaganda have played a central role in the war, now in its third year. John Kirby, the White House’s national security spokesman, declined to comment on the operation and said the Biden administration has reached out to the Ukrainians to better understand what happened.

The head of the region urged residents to donate blood due to the intense fighting. “In the last 24 hours, our region has been heroically resisting attacks” by Ukrainian fighters, acting Gov. Alexei Smirnov said on Telegram, adding that all emergency services were on high alert.

Smirnov said authorities had evacuated more than 200 people from areas under shelling, while several thousand others left in their own vehicles.

If confirmed, the cross-border foray would be among Ukraine’s largest since Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, and unprecedented for its deployment of Ukrainian military units.

Kyiv’s aim could be to draw Russian reserves to the area, potentially weakening Moscow’s offensive operations in several parts of Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region where Russian forces have increased attacks and are advancing gradually toward operationally significant gains.

But it could risk stretching outmanned Ukrainian troops further along the front line, which is more than 1,000 kilometers (620 miles) long.

Even if Russia were to commit reserves to stabilize the new front, given its vast manpower and the relatively small number of Ukrainian forces engaged in the operation, it would likely have little long-term impact.

However, the operation could boost Ukrainian morale at a time when Kyiv’s forces are facing relentless Russian attacks and are expected to face more in coming weeks.

Several Ukrainian brigades stationed along the border region said they could not comment. Ukraine’s Defense Ministry and General Staff said they would not comment.

Russian forces have swiftly repelled previous cross-border incursions, but not before they caused damage and embarrassed authorities.

The Russian Defense Ministry said Tuesday that up to 300 Ukrainian troops, supported by 11 tanks and more than 20 armored combat vehicles, had crossed into Russia and suffered heavy losses.

It said Wednesday that military and border guard troops “continued to destroy Ukrainian military units in the areas alongside the border in the Kursk region.”

The ministry said Russian forces backed by artillery and warplanes “didn’t allow the enemy to advance deeper into the territory of the Russian Federation.”

Open-source monitors have also not been able to verify the claims. The U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War could not verify whether damaged and abandoned armored vehicles shown in geolocated video 7 kilometers (4 miles) north of the border west of Lyubimovka in the Kursk region were Ukrainian.

The think tank also cast doubt on video shared by Russian military bloggers claiming to show the aftermath of the Ukrainian raids. Most of the damage shown “appears to be the result of routine Ukrainian shelling and does not indicate that there was ground activity in the area,” it said in its daily report.

Responsibility for previous incursions into Russia’s Belgorod and Bryansk regions has been claimed by two murky groups: the Russian Volunteer Corps and the Freedom of Russia Legion, which are made up of Russian citizens and have fought alongside Ukrainian forces.

Some Russian war bloggers who have proved knowledgeable about the war said that Ukrainian soldiers were in Kursk.

Rybar, a Telegram channel run by Mikhail Zvinchuk, a retired Russian Defense Ministry press officer, said Ukrainian troops had seized three settlements in the region and continued to fight their way deeper in. It also said that Ukrainian forces captured the Sudzha gas transit station, about 8 kilometers (5 miles) from the border. Russian officials have not confirmed the gains.

Another pro-Kremlin military blog, Two Majors, claimed that Ukrainian troops had advanced up to 15 kilometers (9 miles) into the region.

Neither claim could be independently verified.

The Kursk region’s border with Ukraine is 245 kilometers (150 miles) long, making it possible for saboteur groups to launch swift incursions and capture some ground before Russia deploys reinforcements.

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

Russian military issues update on border fighting

Ukraine has lost around 260 troops and 50 pieces of heavy weaponry over the past 24 hours following its failed attempt to breach Russia’s Kursk Region, the Defense Ministry in Moscow has reported.

The Ukrainian operation was launched early on Tuesday and has resulted in civilian casualties in the border areas of the Russian region, particularly in the town of Sudzha, according to the regional government.

The military update said Kiev’s troops had been unsuccessful in their attempts to advance into Russian territory, with the fighting taking place on the Ukrainian side of the border.

The Ukrainian force was met with airstrikes, as well as rocket and artillery fire, and Russian maneuvers, the statement said. Ukrainian reserves were hit near ten Ukrainian settlements in Sumi Region, the report added.

The ministry listed the types of weapons that were destroyed in the hostilities, including seven tanks, eight armored personnel carriers, multiple infantry fighting vehicles, including two Western-donated Stryker IFVs, as well as two Buk surface-to-air missile launchers.

Earlier in the day, acting Governor Andrey Smirnov reported that his government had helped around 200 people to evacuate from the territories affected by the hostilities. Several thousand civilians fled on their own and were provided necessary support, he added.

Emergency officials have set up shelters for 2,500 people in response to the security crisis, with more than 300 places already occupied by refugees, Smirnov said. Other Russian regions have also offered to host Kursk residents, if necessary. Meanwhile, health authorities in Moscow have sent a team of doctors to beef up the region’s healthcare system and help local medics to deal with the surge of casualties.

AP/RT

Since Sunday, when the president finally addressed the country in response to the ongoing #EndBadGovernance protests, analysts and critics have not stopped rewriting his speech. They think he should have proposed more than the usual platitudes he blandly delivered, and I agree. He offered neither reprieve nor concessions, just vaunted some chest-thumping achievements that have had little bearing on the reality of those for whom the initiatives were allegedly designed.

For a man whose managerial prowess was sung to the high heavens, Bola Tinubu serially comes up short in anticipating and responding to national issues with the panache of someone who is interested in his job and invested in seeing tangible outcomes. His lack of charisma makes him come across as a man who will shrug off failures because he has invested no real stake in success anyway.

But beyond trying to resolve what is wrong with his administration, is it possible to get into the president’s mind and ask, “If I were Tinubu, what would I do differently?” Asking us to hypothesise from his angle is not a spurious exercise in fantasy that merely imagines how the world can be reset. It is to seriously ask, if you were Tinubu and you found yourself in power at such a difficult time in the country’s history, what would be the motivation to act any otherwise than what he is presently doing?

Some might want to argue that Tinubu will try hard because he will want to live up to expectations and not be labelled a “failure.” But that would be assuming he cares about your opinion of him. Why would a man who has been called all sorts of unprintable names bother if anyone labels him a “failure”? That will just be one more label, and he will simply absorb it into the list of other unpalatable names he has been called. And no, I would not think he loses any sleep over how his legacy will be shaped either. If you are a leader in a society that does not demand accountability, and people have a low bar for promotion to power, why struggle to build any long-lasting legacy?

Besides, Tinubu has always maintained a payroll of spinners. They will outdo themselves in the bid to write books that will say he succeeded. The whole #EndBadGovernance protests and his lacklustre response to it just become a chapter in the silly little books they will write about his time in power.

Even Muhammadu Buhari’s aide wrote a book that included 80 pages of his supposed achievements in office. Everyone agrees that Buhari was a disaster; who needs a book to convince them otherwise? Definitely not the victims of his failed administration nor even the politicians still hanging around Buhari hoping for endorsement (and who do not typically read anyway). Such writings are for Buhari to convince him he was what he was not. Tinubu’s legacy will be similarly written. History will grovel before him because he will pay the hagiographers handsomely.

Tinubu cannot also be pushed to pursue a transformation agenda any more keenly because of the threat of not winning a second term. The man has been a part of the machinations of political power long enough to understand that no Nigerian leader is elected solely because of performance, and none loses election simply because they fail to perform. There is no transformational ethos in this administration’s essence. The best it will achieve is to keep house through basic management of national affairs. Like Buhari who assumed that the sheer force of his personality would be enough to right everything wrong with this country only to discover that reality outweighs his ideological vacuity, this one too will not stretch itself. Those who think he will disturb himself because he could be ambushed during his pursuit of a second term are mistaken.

If a leader spent the weeks building up to the protests meeting this and that person to see if they could pull their weight to dissuade the protesters but never came up with either an active plan that can salvage the nation or even a concession to the protesters, then best believe that you have seen all there is to be seen about him. There is no other card up their sleeve. Let us not forget that he has been close enough to government to know all the problems of Nigeria and he won the election early enough for him to get started on them as soon as possible. Yet, he started poorly. On the first day, he announced the fuel subsidy removal policy, not because he had laid out a coherent framework to ensure the feasibility of the policy, but because some spirits possessed him.

Saturday will culminate the activities of the past 10 days, and we will need to figure out what comes next. I would have been optimistic about the potential of the protests to generate coalitions that would have been useful to push the government towards specific reforms, but the manner the hunger plaguing the people (and which drove them to the streets in the first place) has been ethnicised is despairing. In the South-East and the South-South, you have people who did not join the protests to avoid accusations of a sectional agenda (we have enough history on our side to know how that usually pans out).

On the other hand, northerners who do not typically protest hit the streets and beckon to anti-democratic agents for rescue. I expected Bayo Onanuga to bark at them like he did Obidients, but even a rabid dog knows its master. Meanwhile, the South-West is divided along multiple agenda that make whatever point they might want to register with the protests incoherent.

While there have been too many casualties and needless destruction, I still cannot in good conscience blame those who embarked on the protests. Leaders took too much for granted, pushing out one enervating policy after another without considering that people have limits. What else were they expected to do? To continue gorging on the fluff promises of “e go better” the administration was pushing out through its spin doctors?

By holding on to his ground despite the upsets, Tinubu has shown the shape of things to come. He will mostly not budge; he has little reason to do so. So, where do we go from here? For the protesters on the streets campaigning to #EndBadGovernance, what happens on August 11 when they wind up? People cannot protest perpetually; it will cease at some point. What practical steps of political and community organising should accompany the protests?

For us not to merely suffer, it is up to each one of us to make our plans for survival. Anyone who reads this column knows that I am not particularly a fan of turning issues best resolved through policies into a matter of individual responsibility, but that is what Nigeria almost always boils down to. We have been asked to figure out our own infrastructure of education, transport, health, public facilities, water, energy, and even security. Now we must plan how to survive this government.

There is enough about Nigeria, precedents to Nigerian politics, and even Tinubu’s character to determine that he does not have—and unlikely to stimulate—enough motivation to act differently. He will, of course, try to enact policies. If they work, they work. If they do not, they do not. He will not get off his high horse and sacrifice himself to make his policies effectual. He is an old man; he cannot come and die. Not even when he has achieved his ultimate ambition, and simply wants to enjoy the power for which he sold his soul. Why should he now start bothering himself on Nigerians’ behalf?

Punch

As we focus on continuing to elevate entrepreneurs from all parts of the world and from all backgrounds, I’m reflecting a lot on how nontraditional entrepreneurs can realize their dreams. Sometimes that means unlearninglessons we were taught in school.   

On the day you graduate and enter the professional world, there is no instruction manual waiting for you. (If only!) There is so much I wish I’d known at the start of my own career, and I wish I could spare young entrepreneurs that same learningcurve. Below are a few key lessons about entrepreneurship that aren’t taught in school.

1. Your wins will not always be linear

As students, we’re told that if we study hard enough, we’ll ace the test, and that if we turn in all of our assignments, we’ll get full credit. In school, you tend to get out what you put in, often in a very predictable and measurable way. You know that xamount of preparation will probably get you y grade on the exam.

In entrepreneurship, that’s often not the case. You can work incredibly hard and still not see results, and vice versa. Some opportunities can fall in your lap and can feel like a “right place, right time” situation. Other opportunities can completely evade you no matter how hard you reach for them.

When I first started To the Market, I was working 12-14 hour days, doing everything within my control to have as many sales and eyeballs on the businessas possible. But that didn’t always get me the results I wanted. It was hard to process that I was competing in a much broader landscape with variables like competitors having more funding, or competitors being better networked. My work ethic wasn't enough.

I ultimately realized that when entrepreneurs create formulas for success, we’re not the only variable. Some of the variables that factor into our final result are within our control, but many are not. The effort put in does always lead to a commensurate result. I needed to broaden my formula and make space for a lot of other variables to go into the equation.

2. Rejection is going to be part of your regular routine

If you are a driven student and are used to getting a consistently positive outcome from your efforts in school, rejection is hard to accept at first. But the vast majority of people you try to sell to, be it consumers, buyers or investors, are going to say no. That’s the nature of entrepreneurship. Rejection is normal and consistent.

The first time my company pitched a wholesale account, it was to a big retailer that I really admired. I felt really good about our pitch. I felt that our products and prices were compelling. But after the pitch, I didn’t hear back…and didn’t hear back…and didn’t hear back. Still, I had hope. And then finally, I got a no.

At the time, I remember feeling like I’d been punched in the gut. But that’s because I hadn’t built up enough scar tissue around rejection yet. The longer you’re in business, the easier it gets. Rejection becomes a normal part of the growth process.

3. Not everyone will like you — and that’s okay

No matter who you are, what you do, and how you treat people, there are going to be people who just don’t like you. That’s hard at first, because when I started out in the working world, I thought, If I’m nice to everybody, everybody will be nice to me. That’s unfortunately not always the case.

That doesn’t mean I would suggest changing your attitude toward people or turning away from kindness. But you also have to accept that regardless of how virtuous, warm or easygoing you might aspire to be, there will be people who simply do not like you. And that’s okay!

Not only is this a reality, but it's also one that’s perfectly acceptable. There is no one on this planet that everybody likes. And the more success that you might enjoy — meaning a larger organization or more exposure across the business community — the number of people who don’t like you could grow, simply because the number of people who know about you increases. 

4. Managing people is just as important as managing your work

When I first started my career, I didn’t understand what managing people meant.  In school, we’re taught to focus on our own workflows. So much of our training as young people is around becoming excellent in subject matters rather than becoming excellent at delegation, team cohesion and team management.

But as I got older, I came to learn that managing people is equally, if not more important, than your work portfolio. This doesn’t just mean your direct reports: It’s also professional interpersonal relationships and managing in a way that maximizes value creation among all parties.

This is especially true for entrepreneurs. When you build an organization, you become a leader of leaders. Your job is to enable the entire organization to flourish, and your first line of defense is the leaders who report to you.

When To the Market reached the stage of our journey where we grew to have an executive leadership team, I was so used to managing my own workflows that I had to make a shift. I started allocating far more time to empowering and enabling the other leaders in the company.

Thinking about direct reports used to be a relatively small part of my workday, and now it’s the majority of it. Most of my time goes into working directly with the leaders of the organization and ensuring they’re getting what they need to go out and empower their teams.

5. Be your biggest champion

Growing up, there was an emphasis at home on humility and thinking of others rather than yourself. In school, there was rarely a need to promote myself, as teachers are required to give you feedback. But when I got into the business world, the rules were different. I realized it was critical for me to be my own champion, not only for myself but also for my ideas.

In high school and college, I was used to getting feedback on my work from instructors. As an entrepreneur, there was suddenly zero compulsory feedback. In the professional world, there is no forced review process where your work is being considered. For people to even consider saying yes or no to my business, I had to actively tell them about what I was doing. I had to learn to reach out to people, show up at events and outwardly advance my own goals.

No matter how old you are or how much of your career is ahead of you, the important thing to remember is that it’s okay to have questions. It’s okay to not know how to do everything. The key is to never hesitate to raise your hand, let your work be seen, and be willing to unlearn ideas that are no longer serving you.

Entrepreneur

As the #EndBadGovernance protests in Nigeria entered their sixth day, the movement continued to evolve across different parts of the country, with varying levels of intensity and diverse forms of expression. Here's a comprehensive overview of the situation:

1. Rivers State:

- Protesters stormed the Eleme-Onne section of the East-West Road, a crucial route connecting Port Harcourt to key business facilities.

- The demonstration disrupted vehicular movement, highlighting issues of poverty, hunger, and high food costs.

- Protesters demanded job creation, infrastructure development, and revival of local refineries.

- Some demonstrators gathered at former Governor Nyesom Wike's residence in Port Harcourt.

2. Katsina State:

- The protest took a religious turn, with residents organizing large prayer gatherings.

- Interdenominational crowds prayed for divine intervention to address economic hardships, hunger, insecurity, and governance failures.

- Organizers are mobilizing nationwide support for prayer sessions in mosques and churches on August 10th, 2024.

3. Abuja (Federal Capital Territory):

- Protests have significantly dwindled, with only two women holding a sit-out at the Moshood Abiola stadium.

- Government restrictions have limited access to the central business district.

- Protesters criticize the government's response as inadequate, calling for reduced petroleum prices and improved governance.

- Concerns persist about the heavy-handed suppression of protests in Abuja compared to other regions.

4. Lagos:

- Organizers suspended the protest for 24 hours, citing threats from sponsored thugs.

- A congress was held to strategize the next steps, with plans for a rally on Wednesday to honor those killed during the protests.

- Incidents of violence were reported, with thugs attacking journalists covering the protest at Freedom Park, Ojota.

5. General Observations:

- The protests have been marked by clashes with security forces in some areas.

- Demonstrators express dissatisfaction with President Tinubu's speech, claiming it failed to address their demands.

- There are reports of fatalities, particularly in the northern parts of the country.

- The movement appears to be losing momentum in some areas while gaining traction in others.

- Protesters are adapting their strategies, incorporating prayer sessions and planning commemorative events.

6. Government Response:

- Authorities have imposed restrictions on protest locations in some areas, particularly in Abuja.

- Security forces have been deployed to maintain order, sometimes resulting in confrontations with protesters.

- The government's approach has been criticized as inadequate by protest organizers.

As the situation remains fluid, the #EndBadGovernance movement continues to highlight issues of economic hardship, poor governance, and systemic failures across Nigeria.

The night before long-time leader Sheikh Hasina abruptly fled Bangladesh amid deadly protests, her army chief held a meeting with his generals and decided that troops would not open fire on civilians to enforce a curfew, two serving army officers with knowledge of the discussions told Reuters.

Gen. Waker-Uz-Zaman then reached out to Hasina's office, conveying to the prime minister that his soldiers would be unable to implement the lockdown she had called for, according to an Indian official briefed on the matter.

The message was clear, the official said: Hasina no longer had the army's support.

Details of the online meeting between military top brass and the message to Hasina that she had lost their backing have not previously been reported.

They help to explain how Hasina's 15-year rule, during which she brooked little dissent, came to such a chaotic and sudden end on Monday, when she fled from Bangladesh to India.

The nationwide curfew had been imposed after at least 91 people were killed and hundreds injured in nationwide clashes on Sunday, the deadliest day since student-led protests against Hasina began in July.

Army spokesman Lt. Col. Sami Ud Dowla Chowdhury confirmed the Sunday evening discussions, which he described as a regular meeting to take updates after any disturbance. He did not provide details when presented with additional questions about decision-making at that meeting.

Hasina could not be reached and her son and advisor, Sajeeb Wazed, did not respond to repeated requests for comment.

Reuters spoke to ten people familiar with the events of the past week, including four serving army officers and two other informed sources in Bangladesh, to piece together the final 48 hours of Hasina's reign. Many of them spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter.

Hasina, who has ruled Bangladesh for 20 of the last 30 years, was elected to a fourth term leading the country of 170 million in January, after arresting thousands of opposition leaders and workers. That election was boycotted by her main rivals.

Her iron-fisted grasp on power has been challenged since summer by protests triggered by a court ruling to reserve government jobs - heavily coveted amid high youth unemployment - for certain segments of the population. The decision was overturned but the demonstrations had quickly morphed into a movement to oust Hasina.

Zaman has not publicly explained his decision to withdraw support from Hasina. But the scale of the protests and a death toll of at least 241 made supporting Hasina at all costs untenable, three former senior Bangladesh army officers told Reuters.

"There was a lot of uneasiness within the troops," said retired Brig. Gen. M. Sakhawat Hossain. "That is what probably (put) pressure on the chief of army staff, because the troops are out and they are seeing what is happening."

Zaman, who is related to Hasina by marriage, had showed signs of wavering in his support for the prime minister on Saturday, when he sat on an ornate wooden chair and addressed hundreds of uniformed officers in a town hall meeting. The military later made some details of that discussion public.

The general declared that lives had to be protected and called on his officers to show patience, said army spokesman Chowdhury.

It was the first indication that Bangladesh's army would not forcefully suppress the violent demonstrations, leaving Hasina vulnerable.

Retired senior soldiers such as Brig. Gen. Mohammad Shahedul Anam Khan were among those who defied the curfew on Monday and took to the streets.

"We were not stopped by the army," said Khan, a former infantry soldier. "The army has done what he had promised the army would do."

'SHORT NOTICE'

On Monday, the first full day of the indefinite nationwide curfew, Hasina was holed up inside the Ganabhaban, or "People's Palace", a heavily-guarded complex in the capital Dhaka that serves as her official residence.

Outside, on the streets of the sprawling city, crowds gathered. Tens of thousands of people had answered protest leaders' call for a march to oust the leader, streaming into the heart of the city.

With the situation spiralling out of her control, the 76-year-old leader decided to flee the country on Monday morning, according to the Indian official and two Bangladesh nationals familiar with the matter.

Hasina and her sister, who lives in London but was in Dhaka at the time, discussed the matter and flew out together, according to a Bangladesh source. They left for India around lunch, local time.

Indian foreign minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar told parliament on Tuesday that New Delhi had urged "various political forces with whom we were in touch" to resolve the situation via dialogue throughout July.

But as crowds gathered in Dhaka on Monday ignoring the curfew, Hasina decided to resign "after a meeting with leaders of the security establishment", he added. "At very short notice, she requested approval to come for the moment to India."

A second Indian official said it was "diplomatically" conveyed to Hasina that her stay had to be temporary for fear of negatively impacting Delhi's ties with the next government in Dhaka. India's Ministry of External Affairs did not immediately return a request for comment.

Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, whom the protesting students want to lead the interim government after Hasina's ouster, told The New Indian Express newspaper that India had "good ties with the wrong people... Please revisit your foreign policy."

Yunus wasn't immediately available for an interview.

Late in the afternoon on Monday, a Bangladesh Air Force C130 transport aircraft landed at Hindon air base outside Delhi, with Hasina on board.

There, she was met by Ajit Doval, India's powerful national security advisor, according to the Indian security official.

Delhi had fought to carve Bangladesh out of East Pakistan in 1971. After Hasina's father was assassinated in 1975, Hasina took refuge in India for years and built deep links with her neighbour's political elite.

Returning to Bangladesh, she gained power in 1996, and was seen as more sensitive to India's security concerns than her political rivals. The Hindu-majority nation also regarded her secular stance as favourable for the 13 million Hindus in Bangladesh.

But back in Bangladesh, resentment still lingered even among retired soldiers that Hasina had been allowed to leave.

"Personally, I feel that she should not have been given a safe passage," said Khan, the veteran. "That was a folly."

Reuters