Conflicting reports on Nigeria’s crude oil production for late 2024 have highlighted discrepancies between data from the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Nigeria’s own authorities.

According to OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) for December 2024, Nigeria’s average daily oil production, including condensates, rose by 152,000 barrels per day (bpd) in November 2024. This marked an 11% increase, bringing total production from 1.333 million bpd in October to 1.486 million bpd in November. The data suggested a significant recovery in output, with a month-on-month increase of nearly one million barrels.

However, figures from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) present a different narrative. NUPRC data for December 2024 showed that average daily oil production actually declined by 1.35% from 1.690 million bpd in November to 1.667 million bpd in December. Peak production for December was reported at 1.79 million bpd, with the lowest daily production at 1.57 million bpd.

Cumulatively, NUPRC indicated that total oil output for December stood at 51.69 million barrels, a marginal 1.9% increase compared to 50.71 million barrels in November. The report also revealed that Nigeria’s production, excluding condensates, averaged 1.484 million bpd—falling short of OPEC’s production quota of 1.5 million bpd and the 1.7 million bpd benchmark set in Nigeria’s 2024 budget.

Further analysis of NUPRC’s data showed Forcados Terminal as the highest producer in December, with 8.49 million barrels, followed by Bonny Terminal (7.78 million barrels) and Qua Iboe (4.15 million barrels).

The discrepancies between OPEC and NUPRC data raise questions about the accuracy and consistency of Nigeria’s oil production reporting. While OPEC’s figures suggest an increase in production, NUPRC data paints a less optimistic picture, highlighting challenges in meeting both international quotas and domestic budget benchmarks.