A recent report by S&P Global has revealed that the Dangote Petrochemical Refinery is currently meeting up to 60% of Nigeria’s domestic gasoline (petrol) demand. This significant milestone underscores the refinery’s pivotal role in stabilizing the nation’s fuel supply and reducing reliance on imported petroleum products, marking a transformative shift in Nigeria’s energy landscape.

The report contrasts with earlier claims by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority, which stated that the country’s three operational refineries contributed less than 50% of daily petrol consumption. Since its commissioning in January 2024, the Dangote Refinery, with a capacity of 650,000 barrels per day (b/d), has been a focal point of attention, promising to drastically reduce Nigeria’s fuel import deficit by catering to the bulk of the domestic market.

Exceeding analyst expectations, the refinery began operating its critical gasoline unit, the Residue Fluid Catalytic Cracker (RFCC), in September 2024. Officials have projected that the facility will reach full production capacity by mid-March 2025. A Dangote Group executive disclosed in late January that the refinery was producing over 30 million liters of gasoline daily, achieving an 85% utilization rate. This output, equivalent to approximately 200,000 b/d, covers a significant portion of Nigeria’s estimated daily gasoline demand of 350,000 b/d, as per S&P Global Commodity Insights.

Despite initial skepticism from market observers regarding production volumes, the refinery’s growing output has significantly reduced Nigeria’s gasoline imports. In January 2025, import volumes plummeted to a historic low of 62,000 b/d, down from an average of 200,000 b/d in 2024. Traders noted that the decline in imports was largely offset by supplies from the Dangote Refinery, with some residual volumes sourced from the transshipment hub in Lome, Togo.

However, questions remain about the refinery’s exact production figures and distribution logistics. Some traders expressed doubts about the reported 85% utilization rate, suggesting that smaller vessels transporting gasoline from Lome might not be fully accounted for in import data. Nevertheless, industry sources agree that the Dangote Refinery is the primary driver behind the sharp decline in Nigeria’s gasoline imports.

Ikemesit Effiong, a partner at Lagos-based SBM Intelligence, attributed the reduction in imports primarily to the Dangote Refinery. “They’re supplying the market at surprisingly high volumes,” he said, noting that several major retailers had switched to sourcing products from the refinery. “Many NNPC retail outlets are currently underprovisioned and not selling, while Dangote-supplied stations are operating smoothly.”

The refinery’s impact is also being felt internationally, with European exporters experiencing reduced demand from Nigeria.