WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Ukraine drone attack sparks fire, forces flight suspensions at several Russian airports

Ukraine's overnight drone attack targeted fuel and energy facilities in Russia, sparking a fire in the Astrakhan region and forcing the suspension of flights at several airports, Russian officials and media said on Monday.

"Ukrainian armed forces attempted a drone attack on objects located in the region, including fuel and energy facilities," Igor Babushkin, governor of the Astrakhan region in southern Russia, said on the Telegram messaging app.

"Falling drone sparked a fire. There were no casualties."

Babushkin did not say what was on fire. Baza, a Russian news Telegram channel that is close to Russia's security services, said that Ukraine attacked a gas processing plant near Astrakhan.

Russia's aviation watchdog Rosaviatsia said that it was suspending flights from the airports of Astrakhan as well as from four others, in Kazan, Nizhnekamsk, Saratov and Ulyanovsk to ensure air safety.

Earlier, Rosaviatsia temporarily suspended flights from the Volgograd airport in southern Russia, but flights there have since been restored, it said on Telegram.

There were no official reports on any attack on Volgograd, but Baza, and other Russian news Telegram channels reported a large coordinated drone attack that reportedly targeted an oil refinery.

Reuters could not independently verify the Baza reports. There was no immediate comment from Ukraine.

Kyiv has said previously that its attacks inside Russia are aimed at destroying energy, transport and military infrastructure that is key to Moscow's war efforts.

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has said they are also a response to Russia's continued bombing of Ukraine since the start of Moscow's full-scale invasion in February 2022.

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

Russian army destroys Ukrainian military aerodromes, fuel storage facilities — top brass

The Russian army’s units have destroyed the infrastructure of military aerodromes and fuel storage facilities used in the interests of the Ukrainian armed forces, the Russian Defense Ministry reported.

"Operational-tactical aviation, combat unmanned aerial vehicles, missile forces and artillery of the Russian Armed Forces’ group of forces inflicted damage on infrastructure of military airfields, fuel storage facilities used in the interests of the Ukrainian armed forces, as well as troops and equipment of the Ukrainian armed groups in 153 areas," the report said.

Battlegroup Center

Ukraine’s armed forces lost up to 515 troops, a tank and six armored fighting vehicles, in the responsibility area of Russia’s Battlegroup Center in 24 hours, the ministry said.

"Units of Battlegroup Center continued active advance actions. Damage was inflicted on troops and equipment of two mechanized, two jaeger brigades, an assault regiment of the Ukrainian army, and an assault brigade Lyut of Ukraine’s National police near settlements of Dzerzhinsk, Druzhba, Lysovka, Nadezhdinka, Shevchenko, Uspenovka, Andreyevka, and Kotlino of the Donetsk People’s Republic. The enemy lost up to 515 troops, a tank, six armored fighting vehicles, ten cars, and six field branch artillery weapons, one of them produced by a NATO country," the report said.

Battlegroup West

Ukraine’s armed forces lost up to 295 troops and three armored fighting vehicles in the responsibility area of Russia’s Battlegroup West in 24 hours.

"Damage was inflicted on troops and equipment of five mechanized and a tank brigades of the Ukrainian army near settlements of Kondrashovka, Kolodeznoye, Kislovka, Monachinovka of the Kharkov Region and Makeyevka of the Lugansk People’s Republic. The enemy lost up to 295 troops, three armored fighting vehicles, 11 cars, a multiple-launch rocket system, four field branch artillery weapons. Two ammunition depots and an electronic warfare station were eliminated," the ministry said.

Battlegroup South

Ukraine’s armed forces lost up to 200 troops in the responsibility area of Russia’s Battlegroup South in 24 hours.

"The units of Battlegroup South took more favorable positions. Damage was inflicted on formations of two mechanized brigades of the Ukrainian army and two territorial defense brigades near settlements of Ulakly, Belogorovka, Verkhnekamenskoye and Chasov Yar of the Donetsk People’s Republic. The Ukrainian army lost up to 200 troops, two cars, a multiple-launch rocket system, and seven field branch artillery weapons, two of which were produced by NATO countries. Four ammunition depots were destroyed," the report said.

Battlegroupы Dnepr, North

The losses of the Ukrainian armed forces in the responsibility area of Russia’s Battlegroup Dnepr and Battlegroup North reached up to 80 troops, the ministry added.

"The units of Battlegroup North in the Kharkov area inflicted damage on formations of Ukraine’s infantry and air assault brigades near settlements of Liptsy and Volchansk of the Kharkov Region. The enemy lost up to 20 troops, two cars, and four field branch artillery weapons," according to the report.

Units of Battlegroup Dnepr inflicted damage on troops and equipment of Ukraine’s mechanized brigade and two coastal defense brigades near settlements of Rabotino, Primorskoye of the Zaporozhye Region, and Antonovka of the Kherson Region. The enemy lost up to 60 troops, three cars, three field branch artillery weapons, and two electronic warfare stations, the ministry said, adding that an ammunition depot was destroyed.

Battlegroup East

Moreover, Ukraine’s armed forces lost a tank and 140 troops in the responsibility area of Russia’s Battlegroup East in 24 hours.

Russia’s air defense downed a HIMARS system and 44 unmanned aerial vehicles of the Ukrainian armed forces in 24 hours, the Defense Ministry said.

"Air defense systems downed a US-made HIMARS multiple launch rocket system and 44 drones," the ministry said.

In all, the Russian forces have destroyed 652 Ukrainian warplanes, 283 helicopters, 42,139 unmanned aerial vehicles, 590 anti-aircraft missile systems, 20,997 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 1,513 multiple rocket launchers, 21,129 field artillery guns and mortars, and 31,127 special military motor vehicles since the beginning of the special military operation in Ukraine, the ministry added.

Reuters/Tass

In the aftermath of the announcement on 28 January 2024 by Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger Republic denouncing the Revised Treaty of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and leaving the regional bloc “without delay”, reactions spanned the spectrum from hubris to hyperbole. From Nigeria, the regional anchor and chair of the Community, the predominant sentiment was: “the three countries would have more to lose.”

Outside the continent, some described the situation as “West Africa’s ‘Brexit’ moment” or Sahelexit, likening it to Britain’s decision in 2016 to quit the European Union. Reinforcing the comparison, the finalization this past week of the exit of the three countries from ECOWAS coincided with the fifth anniversary of the United Kingdom’s exit from the EU. The temptation to read too much into this coincidence should be resisted.

It is significant that the announcement by the three ECOWAS frontier states in 2024 was made shortly after the arrival in France of Nigeria’s President Bola Tinubu for what was said to be a “private visit”. All three countries have been involved in a plurinational dispute involving both Nigeria and France and connected with military rule and transitions to elected government.

In reality, however, the disputes have been more about historical legacies of French colonial rule, the complex insecurity in the Sahel, and Nigeria’s regional role. In reference to this, the joint statement by the three countries accused ECOWAS of being “under the influence of foreign powers and betraying its founding principles.”

These were not allegations to be treated lightly. There was also significance to the fact that the announcement came on the eve of ECOWAS’ golden jubilee year and represented the latest escalation in what is in fact a debate about how to calibrate inter-state relations in an increasingly complex regional environment.

It did not have to end this way. As a matter of law and notwithstanding the peremptory language deployed, the departure declaration by Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger in 2024 denouncing the ECOWAS Treaty was not immediate. Article 91(1) of the Revised ECOWAS Treaty requires departing countries to “give to the Executive Secretary one year’s notice in writing” and their departure can only take effect at the end of the period.

ECOWAS had every opportunity during this period to exert itself to show it desired a different outcome. In the end, the Community appeared manifestly incapable of sustaining two contradictory ideas. One is the strategic importance of good neighbourliness within ECOWAS as a regional community of sovereign peers; the other is the commitment to government founded on democratic legitimacy.

The fact that ECOWAS finds itself in the current predicament ostensibly over the fate elective government in the region is somewhat perverse acknowledgement of how far it has advanced since its origins.

Of the 15 heads of state and government present at the adoption of the Treaty of the Economic Community of West African States in May 1975, seven were military rulers and another six were succeeded by soldiers. Felix Houphöuet-Boigny of Côte d’Ivoire was the only president as such among the original signatories who was neither a soldier nor directly succeeded by one but his successor was toppled by the military in December 1999. Abdou Diouf, who represented Senegal at the adoption of the treaty was then Prime Minister to President Leopold Senghor, whom he later succeeded as president on 1 April, 1981.

Cape Verde and Senegal are, therefore, the only ECOWAS countries to have been spared the experience of military rule. This fact should ordinarily have equipped the Community and its member states with adequate skills in reacting to military coups. However, it would be a mistake to suppose this denouement is the result of an argument over coups alone or mostly.

ECOWAS began life in the middle of the global energy crisis of the 1970s, founded by rulers who declared it as their goal to “foster and accelerate the economic and social development of our States in order to improve the living standards of our peoples.” A combination of misrule and debt overhang miscarried this objective even before the ink was dry on the parchment on which it was written.

In the wake of instability that followed, the community adjusted its mission in 1981 to include mutual defence and security, importing an implicit obligation of regional solidarity. When the Mano River countries, first Liberia and then Sierra Leone, descended into war from 1989, Nigeria, then led by military ruler, Ibrahim Babangida, launched a regional intervention known as ECOWAS Monitoring Group (ECOMOG) in 1990.

A review of the original ECOWAS Treaty followed in 1993, chaired by Nigeria’s former military ruler, Yakubu Gowon, himself the prime mover behind the original ECOWAS vision. The Revised ECOWAS Treaty again enhanced the obligations of mutual solidarity among the countries of the sub-region.

As the anchor country in ECOWAS, Nigeria was naturally expected to bear much of the burden of financing this obligation. But a straitened economy at the end of decades of misrule have frustrated that capability on the part of Nigeria at precisely the time that the countries of the Sahel needed its presence the most in response to Islamist insurgencies.

The resulting vacuum has been filled by external actors. The French proved to be their own worst enemies in their attempt to fill this vacuum, providing the soldiers who have seized power in these countries with a common foil. French departure in November 2022 and regional isolation by ECOWAS have proved to be a boon to Russia which has quickly built up assets and relations with the regimes in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger.

Notionally, the departure of these three countries will cost ECOWAS 54.35 per cent of its landmass, 20 per cent of its sovereign membership, 16.5 per cent of its population and seven per cent of its GDP. The actual costs are incalculable. First, Mali and Niger have been historic buffers between the violence of the Sahel and the Maghreb on the one hand and the coastal states of the Gulf of Guinea on the other. Their departure could create new security exposures.

Second, the informal economies of West Africa depend significantly on these countries. Trade, migration and pilgrimage routes traverse through them and the impact on the poor and the excluded who rely on these informal routes could either prove to be prohibitive or prove that our inter-state borders are hollow in legitimacy and meaning in the lives of ordinary people.

Third, these countries are important for civil aviation in West Africa for overflights. If they were to deny these, ticketing and routing into their southern neighbours could also become prohibitive.

The upshot is that, in a region defined by notoriously porous borders and transnational communities, severing ties could be easier said than done. Even now, there is still reason not to give up hope: Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger retain their membership of the CFA Franc Zone in the UEMOA, five of whose members remain in the ECOWAS.

ECOWAS has put a brave face on its diminution, claiming that its institutional doors remain open to these countries but their Alliance of Sahel States (AES) is up and running. The feeling remains inescapable that this outcome was not foregone and that it has been enabled by high-level ineptitude among the leadership of ECOWAS.

Ghana’s new president, John Mahama, has in a practical manner made it a priority to advance rapprochement with the AES countries, appointing a personal envoy to lead this process. The Community should fully support him.

It is impossible not to contemplate what might have been. Over the past year while the imminence of these losses escalated, Nigeria’s President and Chairperson of ECOWAS, Bola Tinubu, has been to France on numerous occasions. Consider what might have been if he found time to engage and personally visit these West African neighbours? Surely, that was a mission fit for a new presidential jet.

** Chidi Anselm Odinkalu, a professor of law, teaches at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy and can be reached through This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it..

Leading generative artificial intelligence company OpenAI unveiled a new AI tool on Sunday named "Deep Research," designed to perform multi-step online research for complex tasks. The tool leverages a specialized version of OpenAI's upcoming o3 model, tailored for web browsing and data analysis. Users can input a prompt, and OpenAI's ChatGPT will search, analyze, and synthesize various online sources—including text, images, and PDFs—to generate a detailed report comparable to the work of a research analyst.

OpenAI highlighted the tool's efficiency, stating, "It accomplishes in tens of minutes what would take a human many hours." However, the company also noted that Deep Research is still in its early stages and has certain limitations. For instance, it may struggle to differentiate authoritative information from rumors and currently has challenges with confidence calibration, often failing to accurately convey uncertainty.

Deep Research is now available on the web version of ChatGPT and is expected to be rolled out to mobile and desktop apps by the end of February.

Dangote Petroleum Refinery has announced a reduction in its ex-depot petrol price from N950 to N890 per litre. The price cut was revealed in a statement issued on Saturday by Anthony Chiejina, the group's chief branding and communications officer.

The company attributed the price adjustment to favorable conditions in global energy markets, particularly noting the recent decline in Brent crude oil prices from $81 to $77.48 per barrel between early January and Friday.

"This price revision directly responds to positive trends in global energy markets," the refinery stated. The company expressed confidence that the N60 reduction would help lower nationwide fuel costs and subsequently reduce prices of goods and services across various economic sectors.

The refinery emphasized its commitment to transparency in pricing and has called for cooperation from oil marketers to ensure consumers benefit from the price reduction. This adjustment follows the company's previous price modification announced on January 19th.

The Trump administration has announced new tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China, invoking the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to justify the move.

In an executive order signed on Saturday, President Donald Trump authorized the tariffs, which take effect on Tuesday. The order imposes an additional 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico and a 10% tariff on imports from China. However, energy resources from Canada will be subject to a lower 10% tariff.

According to the White House, the measure is a response to what the administration calls an “extraordinary threat” from illegal immigration and drug trafficking, including the spread of fentanyl. The executive order states that these issues constitute a national emergency and claims that criminal organizations are exploiting U.S. borders.

“This challenge threatens the fabric of our society,” the order reads. It specifically criticizes Canada, alleging that the country has not done enough to curb the flow of illicit drugs into the United States.

A fact sheet released by the White House says the tariffs aim to hold Canada, Mexico, and China accountable for their commitments to combat illegal immigration and drug trafficking.

International Backlash

The announcement was met with swift condemnation from leaders of the affected countries. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau responded on X, saying, “We did not want this, but Canada is prepared.”

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum rejected the U.S. accusations, calling them “slander” and denying any government ties to criminal organizations. She emphasized Mexico’s commitment to fighting drug trafficking but insisted that cooperation must be based on “shared responsibility, mutual trust, and respect for sovereignty.”

Economic Implications

The move had been widely anticipated after White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters on Friday that tariffs would be announced over the weekend.

That same day, Trump hinted at potential tariff hikes on imports from the European Union, claiming such measures would strengthen the U.S. economy.

On Saturday, Trump defended the tariffs in a Truth Social post, stating, “We need to protect Americans, and it is my duty as President to ensure the safety of all.” He also reiterated his campaign promise to “stop the flood of illegal aliens and drugs”, saying that Americans overwhelmingly voted for it.

Israeli hostages, Palestinian prisoners released in latest Gaza exchange

Palestinian militant group Hamas handed over three Israeli hostages on Saturday, and dozens of Palestinian prisoners and detainees were released in exchange, in the latest stage of a truce aimed at ending the 15-month war in Gaza.

Ofer Kalderon, a French-Israeli dual national, and Yarden Bibas were handed over to Red Cross officials in the southern Gaza city of Khan Younis before being transferred to Israel. Israeli-American Keith Siegel was separately handed over at the Gaza City seaport.

Hours later, 183 Palestinian prisoners and detainees were released in the exchange. Among them, 150 arrived in Gaza while 32 got off a bus in Ramallah in the occupied West Bank, where they were greeted by large crowds. One freed prisoner will be exiled to Egypt, according to the Hamas prisoners' media office.

"I feel joy despite the journey of pain and hardship that we lived," said Ali Al-Barghouti, who was serving two life sentences in an Israeli jail.

"The life sentence was broken and the occupation will one day be broken," added Barghouti, as the crowd around him in Ramallah chanted "Allah Akbar (God is the most great)."

At the newly reopened Rafah crossing on the southern border, children suffering from cancer and heart conditions were among the first Palestinian patients to be allowed to leave Gaza for medical treatment in Egypt.

Mohammad Zaqout, a senior official in Gaza's health ministry, however, criticised the limited number of patients allowed to travel for treatment, saying that around 18,000 people needed better healthcare.

In Israel, crowds gathered at the location in Tel Aviv known as Hostage Square to watch the release in the morning of the Israeli hostages on giant outdoor screens, mixing cheers and applause with tears as the three men appeared.

Kalderon, whose two children Erez and Sahar were released in the first hostage exchange in November 2023, and Bibas both briefly mounted a stage in Khan Younis, in front of a poster of Hamas figures including Mohammad Deif, the former military commander whose death was confirmed by Hamas this week, before being handed over to the Red Cross officials.

"Ofer Kalderon is free! We share the immense relief and joy of his loved ones after 483 days of unimaginable hell," French President Emmanuel Macron said in a statement.

Saturday's handover saw none of the chaotic scenes that overshadowed an earlier transfer on Thursday, when Hamas guards struggled to shield hostages from a surging crowd in Gaza.

But it was once again an occasion for a show of force by uniformed Hamas fighters who paraded in the area where the handovers took place in a sign of their re-established dominance in Gaza despite the heavy losses suffered in the war.

NEGOTIATIONS ON RELEASE OF REMAINING HOSTAGES

The total number of hostages freed so far is 18, including five Thais who were part of an unscheduled release on Thursday.

After Saturday's exchange, Israel will have released 583 Palestinian prisoners and detainees, including militants serving life sentences for deadly attacks as well as some detained during the war but not charged.

As the fighting has abated, diplomatic efforts to build a wider settlement have stepped up.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to meet U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday with the ceasefire in Gaza, and a possible normalisation of relations with Saudi Arabia as part of a postwar deal likely to be a focus.

During the first phase of the ceasefire, 33 children, women and older male hostages as well as sick and injured, were due to be released, with more than 60 men of military age left for a second phase which must still be worked out.

Negotiations are due to start by Tuesday on agreements for the release of the remaining hostages and the withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza in a second phase of the deal, which is intended to lead to a final end of the war in Gaza.

The initial six-week truce, agreed with Egyptian and Qatari mediators and backed by the United States, has mostly remained intact despite incidents that have led both sides to accuse the other of violating the deal.

Netanyahu's government, which has hardliners who opposed the ceasefire deal, and Hamas say they are committed to reaching an agreement in the second phase.

But prospects for a durable settlement remain unclear. The war started with a Hamas-led attack on Israel that killed 1,200 people, and saw more than 250 taken as hostages. The Israeli military campaign has killed more than 47,000 Palestinians. Gaza is in ruins and a deep legacy of bitterness and mistrust remains.

Israeli leaders continue to insist that Hamas cannot remain in Gaza, but the movement has taken every opportunity to demonstrate the control it continues to exert despite the loss of much of its former leadership and thousands of fighters during the war.

Reuters

WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Russian air attack kills 15 in Ukraine, gas infrastructure targeted

Russia launched a barrage of drones and missiles on Ukraine on Saturday, killing 15 people and damaging dozens of residential buildings as well as energy infrastructure across the country, Ukrainian officials said.

In the central city of Poltava, Ukraine's Emergency Services said a Russian missile had struck a residential building, killing 11 people and wounding 16, including four children.

They said 22 people were rescued from rubble and emergency crews worked well into the night. Rescue teams carried out the dead on stretchers.

Reuters TV footage showed thick columns of smoke rising from mounds of rubble outside the building, part of reduced to a twisted mass of metal and building materials.

Firefighters and dozens of rescuers were searching through rubble and carrying the dead out on stretchers.

One retired military veteran, certain his son, daughter-in law and granddaughter had died on the first floor (U.S. second) of the building, waited outside the building all day, checking with rescue teams as they brought bodies past on stretchers.

In Kharkiv, in Ukraine's northeast, one person was killed and four were wounded in a drone attack, the mayor said.

Three police officers were killed during the attacks as they patrolled streets in a village in the northeastern region of Sumy, regional officials said.

Ukraine and Russia later traded blame for a strike on a dormitory at a boarding school in a Ukrainian-held part of Russia's Kursk region, each side accusing the other of launching the attack. Ukraine's military said four people had been killed.

VARIETY OF WEAPONS IN ATTACKS

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy had earlier said Russia used missiles, attack drones and aerial bombs in carrying out overnight attacks on Ukrainian targets.

"Each such terrorist attack proves that we need more support in defending ourselves against Russian terror. Every air defence system, every anti-missile weapon, saves lives," he said on the Telegram app.

The Ukrainian air force said Russian forces launched 123 drones and more than 40 missiles. Its air defence units shot down 56 of the drones and redirected 61, it said. The air force provided no figures on how many missiles were intercepted.

In Poltava, around 120 kilometres (75 miles) from the Russian border, about 18 apartment buildings, a kindergarten, and energy infrastructure were damaged, city authorities said.

Ukrainian officials said that damage was also registered in the city of Zaporizhzhia in the southeast, Kharkiv and Sumy regions in the northeast, and Khmelnytskyi in the west.

Kharkiv Governor Oleh Syniehubov said Russian forces used six missiles and 17 Shahed drones to target gas infrastructure and other facilities.

Russia's Defence Ministry said that its forces had launched attacks aimed at Ukraine's gas and other energy infrastructure and had shot down 108 Ukrainian drones in the last 24 hours, Russian news agencies reported.

Since March 2024, Russia has launched multiple missile and drone attacks on Ukraine's power sector and other energy infrastructure, knocking out about half of the country's available generating capacity and forcing rolling blackouts.

As the war approaches its three-year mark this month and Russian forces make small but steady gains in eastern Ukraine, edging closer to the strategic logistic hub of Pokrovsk, both sides are using drones to hit infrastructure and disrupt military supply lines.

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

Ukrainian naval drone destroyed near Crimea – MOD

The Russian Defense Ministry has released a video showing the destruction of a Ukrainian unmanned boat heading towards Crimea. According to the military, the vessel was intercepted by Moscow’s naval forces in the northwestern part of the Black Sea.

Also on Saturday, the ministry said on Telegram that during the previous night, air defense systems intercepted and destroyed nine Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles: seven over Bryansk Region, and one each over Belgorod and Saratov regions.

Russian air defense systems intercepted and destroyed 49 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles over seven regions the previous day, according to the military.

The use of unmanned boats and aircraft has played a significant part in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Both sides have increasingly employed drone technology for reconnaissance and offensive operations.

On Friday, the MOD reported that between January 25 and 31, Russian forces conducted seven group strikes using high-precision weapons and attack drones. The strikes targeted critical energy facilities supporting Ukraine’s military-industrial complex, as well as military airfields, assembly and storage sites for strike drones and unmanned boats, and temporary deployment points for Ukrainian troops.

Reuters/RT

Although 2025 has only just begun, the Machiavellian maneuvers and the increasingly tensile, high-decibel political shrieks being emitted by politicians about the 2027 election might lead one to believe that the election will take place next year.

Of all the political realignments that are forming preparatory to the 2027 election, it’s the unity in political adversity between former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and former Governor Nasir El-Rufai that strikes me as the most intriguing.

El-Rufai feels understandably betrayed by his humiliating exclusion from the Bola Tinubu administration whose ascent to power he helped to facilitate with uncommon vim and vigor. Nonetheless, he is protesting his betrayal by making common cause with Abubakar whom he had serially stabbed in the back more treacherously than Tinubu has thrown him under the bus.

It is akin, in a way, to a soldier who, after leading a fierce battle to enthrone a king, finds himself cast out of the palace. Wounded and seething, he seeks refuge in the camp of an old mentor and ally whom he once betrayed in the heat of war, hoping that their shared resentment for the new ruler will be enough to overlook past treacheries.

Recall that El-Rufai consistently disclaimed any debt to Abubakar in his political rise even when leaked US Embassy cables quoted him as telling US Embassy officials that Atiku was the single most important reason he made an “accidental” detour to public service. Worse still, he was the lynchpin in President Olusegun Obasanjo’s all-out, no-holds-barred, scorched-earth decimation of Atiku’s presidential aspirations.

As I pointed out in my August 12, 2023, column titled “El-Rufai’s Betrayal and Akpabio’s Buffoonery,” it was El-Rufai who carried Obasanjo’s messages to Western embassies saying Atiku must never be allowed to be president.

“On September 21, 2006, for instance, El-Rufai met with the U.S. ambassador to Nigeria and the UK High Commissioner ‘under instruction’ from Obasanjo to inform them of and seek their blessing to deny Atiku the chance to succeed Obasanjo,” I wrote and characterized El-Rufai’s volte face as “a wild change of loyalties.”

Of course, it’s a banal fact of Third World life that betrayal is the lifeblood of partisan politics. So, there’s nothing out of the ordinary about El-Rufai’s duplicity. In any case, El-Rufai had also ridiculed Muhammadu Buhari as a bigot who was “serially unelectable” but later embraced him and even became the single most important reason why Buhari decided to run for president again, according to Buhari himself.

Yet, although Atiku must have developed a thick skin to perfidy (I am sure he, too, has stabbed quite a few people in the back in the course of his political career), I can’t help but wonder what goes on in his mind when he strategizes with El-Rufai toward the political containment of their common foe now.

Does he see El-Rufai as a repentant traitor seeking redemption, or merely as a desperate, scorned man whose newfound friendship is actuated by opportunistic political self-preservation rather than conviction?

Atiku must feel like sharing a meal with a man who once poisoned his drink. He will probably watch his hands closely and weigh his every word, knowing that today’s ally could easily be tomorrow’s betrayer.

Nevertheless, in the ruthless calculus of politics, perhaps Atiku understands that some alliances, however uneasy, are dictated not by trust, but by the urgency of a common enemy.

This sentiment underpins the rumored subterranean rapprochement between Bola Tinubu and Rabiu Kwankwaso. Although they appear to be at loggerheads, there are credible hints that Abdullahi Ganduje’s recent appointment to the chairmanship of the board of the Federal Airport Authority of Nigeria is a calculated first step to strategically ease him out of the chairmanship of the APC, which is said to be the irreducible minimum for Kwankwaso’s alliance with Tinubu.

A Tinubu-Kwankwaso alliance is projected to be a formidable checkmate for the emerging Atiku-El-Rufai coalition.

However, in all the alliances and re-alliances that are being formed and reformed and the boundaries of friendship and betrayal that are being negotiated and renegotiated, one thing has been remarkably missing: how to reverse the progressively worsening plight of common people.

The condition of poor people who are vulnerable to the whirlingly blinding vagaries of market forces is the cornerstone of my public intellection. This sprouts from my own experiential brushes with poverty growing up. Although I have escaped my past condition, I have not lost, and won’t ever lose, my empathy for the poor.

None of the people strategizing about taking over or retaining power in 2027 spares a thought for the seemingly irreversible death spiral that cruel neoliberal economics has visited on the masses of economically disinherited Nigerians. That worries me deeply.

It is obvious that even so-called opposition politicians don’t have an alternative template for husbanding the economy. That’s why their criticism of the present torment has been muted at best. They all believe the state should be rolled back from the quotidian life of everyday folk and that governments have no responsibility to assist citizens to live decent, dignified lives.

This style of government frees people in power from the responsibility to be accountable to the people and the license to jettison the unwritten social contract they signed with the people.

They all want a country where, as I pointed out in the past, the economy will “grow” even if that causes the people to growl. “After the economy has ‘grown’ but the people still groan, where is the growth?” I wrote in my June 24, 2023 column.

That is precisely what is happening in Argentina, which is pursuing similar inhumane market-centric policies as Tinubu. Argentina’s populist rightwing president is getting plaudits for “growing” the economy while the people are growling in anguish.

He is being celebrated for achieving a budget surplus at the expense of deep deficits in people’s quality of life, at the cost of a recessionary economy that has plunged more than half of the country into extreme poverty. The Western press is also praising Tinubu’s “reforms.”

No politician, to my knowledge, is talking about a more compassionate, people-centered approach to managing the economy. Unfortunately, the people don’t seem to care. Maybe that’s why the politicians don’t care, either.

Or perhaps it’s the other way around: the politicians stopped caring first, numbing the people into apathy through years of airy promises and performative concern. When hardship becomes routine and disappointment a certainty, cynicism replaces hope, and survival takes precedence over ideals.

In such a climate, politics becomes a spectacle rather than a means of change, and the people, resigned to their fate, watch passively, expecting nothing and receiving exactly that.

Betrand Russell could very well be describing Nigeria’s situation when he wrote in 1923 that “A very large percentage of English-speaking people really believe that the ills from which they suffer would be cured if a certain political party were in power. That is a reason for the swing of the pendulum.

“A man votes for one party and remains miserable; he concludes that it was the other party that was to bring the millennium. By the time he is disenchanted with all parties, he is an old man on the verge of death; his sons retain the belief of his youth, and the see-saw goes on.”

O that there were such an heart in them, that they would fear me, and keep all my commandments always, that it might be well with them, and with their children for ever ~ Deuteronomy 5:29!

Preamble:

Our God is truly glorious in majesty, and Hisend-time Church is designed and crafted for His glory. Prophet Haggai spoke so enthusiastically about this when he said, “the glory of this latter house shall be greater than of the former ….”  (Haggai 2:9). From glory to glory: that’s God’s primordial passion forHis new creation entities upon the earth.

We are God’s house of glory, and we’re outfitted to glow with His overwhelming glory(Isaiah 43:6-7; 60:7). Meanwhile, it’s very essential that we understand what it actually entails to access and to enjoy this divine glory.

The glory of God is not just a feeling, or a mereexperience. It’s a spiritual expression of everything contained in His character, manifest beauty and incredible goodness. More than just a presence, God’s glory also depicts Hisultimate power that resurrects, delivers, overcomes and transforms lives and destinies(Exodus 24:17; Habakkuk 3:4).

Happily, the days of the fullness of this glory and its fulfillment are here with us (Isaiah2:1-3). The glory is majestic, illuminating, progressive, expressive, declarative, attractive and magnetic, and it all belongs to us (Isaiah 60:1-3)!

Undoubtedly, you were created for God’s glory, not for shame, failure, humiliation or backwardness. Moreover, this glory is no respecter of persons. In every nation, tribe, color, gender, generation, age or background, anyone that fears God and accesses the glory through faith in Christ is admitted by it.

When the glory of God shows up in your life, all your needs are supernaturally supplied according to His riches in glory by Christ Jesus (Philippians 4:19). “Aluta” surrenders, all your past failures become a story, and you begin to experience an incredibly higher dimension of divine assistance, supernatural protection and ever increasing blessings from the Lord (Isaiah 4:5).

Some people feel that the glory of God is absolutely inaccessible, untouchable andunreachable. Don’t forget that it’s freely available to His children every time and everywhere. In fact, that glory resides inside every child of God right now (Colossians 1:27).

Moses sought to see this glory (Exodus 33:17-23). Thereafter, he received the gracious touch of God’s mercy, which repositioned him from “miry clay” experiences to a solid-rock. The everlasting Arm covered him, and he began to enjoy the immensity of God’s goodness. With this glory, you’re ever going forward in life(Proverbs 4:18).

We must at this point examine what it takes to access the Lord’s glory and continually enjoy its overwhelming goodness.

Accessing and Experiencing the Lord’s Glory

Prophet Isaiah counseled that any believer who would enter the pavilion of the Lord’s glorymust, of a necessity, “arise” (Isaiah 60:1). To arise means, to "get up” and “come on thescene”. We must arise and do whatever will reposition us to see the Lord’s glory.

The fundamental step in this process is to ensure a genuine encounter with JesusChrist. God is the glory of His people (Psalms 3:3; Zechariah 2:5). Notwithstanding, Jesus Christ is the brightness and the manifestation of that glory (Hebrews 1:2-3; John 2:11). The divine gloryis most fully displayed in His face(2Corinthians 4:6).

God said to Moses, “stand upon the Rock” and you will experience the glory. Jesus Christ is that Rock today (1Corinthians 10:4). Therefore, turning to Him for salvation and maintaining our stand with Him work the miracle (2Corinthians 3:16). In Him is the guaranteed access to the divine glory (John 17:22).

Furthermore, it takes faith to see the manifestation of God’s glory (John 11:40). If we don’t believe we’ll see it, we probably won’t.David looked up in faith, and God’s glorious help showed up for him (Psalm 121:1). Stephentoo gazed into heaven, and he saw the Lord’s glory (Acts 7:55). If you too will look well enoughby faith, you will also see the manifestations of God’s glory!

Moreover, we must pray for the Lord’s glory if we desire to fully tap into it. Prayer shines the spotlight on God’s attributes of goodness, omnipresence and omnipotence. The Lord Himself encouraged us to pray to experience His glory (John 14:13). We must diligently ask and seek for it to be revealed (Psalm 50:15).

Moses saw the glory of God when he prayed.Esther too. Each believer has the capacity to experience God’s glory here on earth, but we must pray for it in faith (Jeremiah 33:3). When we pray the glory into the earth, signs and wonders will occur in the Church and in our personal lives.

Nevertheless, the place of the Holy Spirit in ourexperiences of God’s glory cannot be overlooked. The real focus of the Holy Spirit is to liberate us from our past attachments and bring us to our desired change (1Samuel 10:6). We must, therefore, fully cooperate with Him in all ramifications if we’re to see His adorableglory in our rising.

When we yield to the Holy Spirit, we become transformed by Him from glory to glory(2Corinthians 3:17-18). Nevertheless, change is paramount to progress. Where change is resisted, progress is denied its motion. Progress is not traditional, it’s transitional. This is why Job said he would do anything in favour of change(Job 14:14).

The believers who will enjoy the transformational touch of the Holy Ghost must reject the resources of the flesh and become enabled to seek God "with unveiled face". That is, without any veil of pretense or self-justification, but relying solely on Christfor everything. Coming to the Lord in this manner brings for us an ever increasing blessing of His glory (2Corinthians 3:5).

Friends and brethren, if you wish to continually experience the Lord’s glory, please take heed to truly imbibe the “Christ-inside consciousness”. That’s the surest way to be happy and to stay so.

Troubles and shame multiply for those who make a practice of those things that would make God frown and hide His face away from them (Psalms 104:28-30). We should rather make our daily living an attractive atmosphere for the Holy Spirit. We should make it ourstudied delight to do regularly as the Lord God commands.

We must be godly, holy and obedient to the Lord (Isaiah 3:10). With such a heart, we will see the Lord’s glory and it shall be well with us (Deuteronomy 5:29). Happily, God can bestow such a heart whenever we ask Him in prayer (Ezekiel 36:26). It’s your turn to start enjoying the overwhelming glow of God’s glory. You won’t miss it, in Jesus name. Amen. Happy Sunday!

 ____________________

Archbishop Taiwo Akinola,

Rhema Christian Church,

Otta, Ogun State, Nigeria.

Connect with Bishop Akinola via these channels:

Facebook: www.facebook.com/bishopakinola

SMS/WhatsApp: +234 802 318 4987

Imagine a situation where your life is telling a story, except that this story is not your story but someone else’s. You are just living your life but do not know your life is telling a story that someone else has decided to tell.

How can that be?

Remember this: “(God) is able to do exceedingly abundantly above all that we ask or think.” (Ephesians 3:20).

How does (God) synchronise our personal decisions and actions to the story He has decided to tell humanity in the scriptures?

That is the power of God. Jesus told the Sadducees: 

“You are mistaken, not knowing the Scriptures nor the power of God.” (Matthew 22:29).

Throughout the scriptures of the Old Testament, God used His power to ensure that actual events turned out to be parabolic representations of His plan of redemption. From Genesis to Malachi, God makes every life and incident a pre-figuration of Jesus Christ. 

Here is the kingdom dynamic. Jesus says:

“The kingdom of God is as if a man should scatter seed on the ground, and should sleep by night and rise by day, and the seed should sprout and grow, he himself does not know how. For the earth yields crops by itself: first the blade, then the head, after that the full grain in the head. But when the grain ripens, immediately he puts in the sickle, because the harvest has come.” (Mark 4:26-29).

Portrait of Christ

God paints in the Old Testament scriptures a portrait of Jesus. The people He uses to paint this portrait do not know their lives are painting such a portrait. But when you combine the bits and pieces of the different lives depicted from Genesis to Malachi, you end up with an outstanding picture of Jesus. 

We read so many disjointed prophecies about Jesus in the psalms and the prophets. And then suddenly, in the gospels, in Matthew, Mark, Luke, and John, the person of whom the scriptures have spoken shows up.

Paul says: “When the fullness of the time had come, God sent forth His Son.” (Galatians 4:4).

And we are left in awe and wonder at the amazing power of God.

Jesus says: “Search the Scriptures, for in them you think you have eternal life; and these are they which testify of me.” (John 5:39).

This is predicted in the psalms of David: “Then I said, “Behold, I come; in the scroll of the book it is written of me.” (Psalms 40:7).

In a period spanning 1,500 years, all the people in the Old Testament, all the incidents, and all the ceremonial rites, all point to one person, Jesus Christ.

When He rose from the dead, Jesus met two of His disciples on the road to Emmaus:

“And beginning at Moses and all the prophets, He expounded unto them in all the scriptures the things concerning Himself.” (Luke 24:32).

The scriptures, from Genesis to Malachi, all tell us something or the other about Jesus, but we do not know this until Jesus Himself arrives on the scene in the gospels and turns on the light as the light of the world.

Then we realise that all the tedious laws and customs of the Israelites presented in the Old Testament have a singular spiritual significance: to present a composite picture of the birth, life, ministry, death, and resurrection of Jesus, designed to redeem mankind from sin, to the glory of God the Father.

Word of God

Jesus is the word of God written in the Old Testament. When He finally came in person, He told us: 

“It is the Spirit who gives life; the flesh profits nothing. The words that I speak to you are spirit, and they are life.” (John 6:63).

This means the ceremonies and sacrificial rituals Moses gave to Israel were not carnal ordinances. They were spiritual representations of the life and character of Jesus. It is quite possible that Moses himself did not know this. Certainly, the prophets wrote things by inspiration without fully knowing precisely what they were writing about.

“Concerning this salvation, the prophets, who spoke of the grace that was to come to you, searched intently and with the greatest care, trying to find out the time and circumstances to which the Spirit of Christ in them was pointing when he predicted the sufferings of Christ and the glories that would follow. It was revealed to them that they were not serving themselves but you, when they spoke of the things that have now been told you by those who have preached the gospel to you by the Holy Spirit sent from heaven. Even angels long to look into these things.” (1 Peter 1:10-12).

Past Guinea Pigs

The things that happened in the Old Testament were written with us in mind. When the light was turned on in the New Testament, we discovered that:

“Whatever things were written before were written for our learning, that we through the patience and comfort of the Scriptures might have hope.” (Romans 15:4).

“These things became our examples, to the intent that we should not lust after evil things as they also lusted. And do not become idolaters as were some of them. As it is written, “The people sat down to eat and drink, and rose up to play.” Nor let us commit sexual immorality, as some of them did, and in one day twenty-three thousand fell; nor let us tempt Christ, as some of them also tempted, and were destroyed by serpents; nor complain, as some of them also complained, and were destroyed by the destroyer. Now all these things happened to them as examples, and they were written for our admonition, upon whom the ends of the ages have come.” (1 Corinthians 10:6-11).

The writer of Hebrews notes that the tabernacle that God commissioned Moses to build served as:

“The copy and shadow of the heavenly things, as Moses was divinely instructed when he was about to make the tabernacle. For (God) said, ‘See that you make all things according to the pattern shown you on the mountain.’” (Hebrews 8:5-6). 

In effect, the Law of Moses was: “A shadow of the good things to come.” (Hebrews 10:1). 

It therefore becomes incumbent upon us to ascertain, by the help of the Holy Spirit, the significance of the types and shadows presented in the Old Testament.

John the Baptist said about Jesus: “Behold! The Lamb of God who takes away the sin of the world!” (John 1:29).

Jesus then was the lamb that Abraham told Isaac God would provide: “Then (Isaac) said, “Look, the fire and the wood, but where is the lamb for a burnt offering?” And Abraham said, ‘My son, God will provide for Himself the lamb for a burnt offering.’” (Genesis 22:7-8).

When God says in Hosea: “I desire mercy and not sacrifice, and the knowledge of God more than burnt offerings.” (Hosea 6:6).

And when Jesus repeats this: “Go and learn what this means: ‘I desire mercy and not sacrifice.’ For I did not come to call the righteous, but sinners, to repentance.’” (Matthew 9:13).

He was telling us that God does not require man to do what only God can do.

“For it is not possible that the blood of bulls and goats could take away sins. Therefore, when (Jesus) came into the world, He said: ‘Sacrifice and offering You did not desire, but a body You have prepared for Me. In burnt offerings and sacrifices for sin

You had no pleasure.” (Hebrews 10:4-6). 

So, what was the point of all those sacrificial rituals of the Old Testament?

Their futility was evident in that they had to be repeated again and again. But perfection came when Christ offered Himself “once for all” and sat down, having finished His work.

“This Man, (Christ Jesus), after He had offered one sacrifice for sins forever, sat down at the right hand of God, from that time waiting till His enemies are made His footstool. For by one offering He has perfected forever those who are being sanctified.” (Hebrews 10:12-14). 

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