Senate, on Tuesday, directed Clerk of the National Assembly to transmit to President Muhammadu Buhari a bill seeking to provide for independent candidacy in elections from local government to the national level.

The bill proposes that for any Nigerian national to contest presidential election as independent candidate, he or she must obtain the verified signatures of at least 20 per cent of registered voters from each of the 36 states of the federation, “provided that a registered voter shall not sign for more than one independent candidate in respect of the same office.”

For governorship election, the independent candidate must obtain the verified signatures of at least 20 per cent of registered voters from each of the local government areas of the state.

The bill also states that anyone willing to contest National Assembly elections must obtain the verified signatures of at least 20 per cent of registered voters from each of the local government areas in the respective senatorial district or federal constituency.

The proposed legislation empowers the Independent National Electoral Commission to prescribe the payment of administrative fees by independent candidates for respective elections.

It mandated the electoral body to waive 50 per cent of the administrative fees for women candidates, among others.

The Constitution Alteration Bill No. 58 would be transmitted to the President,  in line with the provisions of the Authentication Act.

The Clerk was also directed to transmit to the President, Constitution Amendment Bill No. 46, which seeks to include the presiding officers of the National Assembly in the membership of the National Security Council.

The two proposals were part of the Constitution Alteration Bills transmitted to state Houses of Assembly for concurrence last year but not part of the 35 that secured the required approval of 24 out of 36 state assemblies.

Deputy Senate President, Ovie Omo-Agege, in a motion during Tuesday’s plenary, informed his colleagues that Gombe State House of Assembly had approved the Constitution Alteration Bill Nos. 46 and 58 and forwarded its resolution to the National Assembly.

Omo-Agege, who is the Chairman of the Senate Ad Hoc Committee on Constitution Review, said with the approval of the Gombe Assembly, the bills on the independent candidacy and inclusion of National Assembly presiding officers in the National Security Council membership have met the provisions of Section 9(2) of the Constitution for passage.

The Senate, after adopting the motion, directed the Clerk of the National Assembly to transmit the bills to the President for his assent.

Punch

President-elect Bola Tinubu has met with Rabiu Kwankwaso, one of his opponents in the February 25, 2023 elections.

Kwankwaso, who ran on the platform of the New Nigerian Peoples Party (NNPP), placed fourth in the election, winning only Kano State, a stronghold of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).

According to sources, the duo met for hours in Paris, capital of France, on Monday.

Tinubu reportedly told Kwankwaso to reach out to his political associates on the need to work together.

The incoming president and his guest were said to have agreed to hold subsequent meetings.

While Kwankwaso’s wife and Abdulmimin Jibrin, an NNPP lawmaker-elect, accompanied him to the meeting, Tinubu’s wife and Femi Gbajabiamila, outgoing Speaker of the House of Representatives, were part of the meeting.

“The President-elect and Kwankwaso met for over 4 hours behind close door in Paris on Monday. The meeting which started at about 12.30pm ended at about 4.45pm. The meeting was attended by Speaker of the House of Representatives Femi Gbajabiamila. Kwankwaso was accompanied to the meeting by member elect from kano Abdulmumin Jibrin,” the source said.

“Oluremi Tinubu was also there to receive Kwankwaso’s wife Salamatu who came with her husband. Discussions were centered around their long term friendship since their days in the National Assembly in 1992, national unity and development, priorities for the new government, national assembly contests and the plan by the President-elect for a government of national unity which Kwankwaso has in principle accepted to join.”

The source said Tinubu also hinted at reconciling Governor Abdullahi Ganduje of Kano and Kwankwaso.

Ganduje had succeeded Kwankwso in 2015, but the duo fell apart shortly after.

Daily Trust

Bharti Airtel Ltd., the wireless phone operator owned by Indian billionaire Sunil Mittal, said efforts by Nigeria to curb rampant kidnappings cost the company an estimated $110 million in annual revenue after authorities suspended unregistered users.

Nigerian regulators barred voice services for 13.6 million Airtel subscribers in April 2022 after they failed to link their phone lines to national identity numbers, the New Delhi-based firm said in an earnings filing on Tuesday. Just under half of those have since submitted IDs, while only 3.5 million customers have been fully verified and unbarred, hitting group revenue growth in the year through March by almost 2.4%.

Bloomberg

Gunmen have killed four people in the Amiyi/Eke Ochuche communities of Ogbaru LGA in Anambra.

Speaking on the incident, Ikenga Tochukwu, police spokesperson in Anambra, said the gunmen attacked the convoy conveying staff of the United States consulate.

He said the “hoodlums murdered two of the PMF operatives, and two staff of the consulate”, adding that bodies of the victims were set ablaze by the gunmen. 

“Security forces have embarked on a rescue/recovery operation in Ogbaru LGA, following an attack on a convoy of staff of US consulate today 16/5/2023 by 3:30 pm along Atani, Osamale road. The hoodlums murdered two of the PMF operatives, and two staff of the consulate, and set their bodies ablaze and their vehicles,” he said.

“Also, the arsonist/murderers on sighting the responding joint security forces abducted two police operatives, the driver of the second vehicle and took to their heels. No US citizen was in the convoy.

“The command, while reacting to the incident, regrets that a convoy of such or any related will enter the state without recourse to the police in the area or any security agency, assured that the battle against the insurgents in the state is focused and it will remain sustained until such a time security stability is fully restored”.

The US mission in Nigeria confirmed the incident, noting that the security of their personnel is paramount.

“We confirm there was an incident on May 16 in Anambra state.  U.S. Mission Nigeria personnel are working with Nigerian security services to investigate. The security of our personnel is always paramount, and we take extensive precautions when organising trips to the field. We have no further comment at this time,” a spokesperson of the US mission said.

The Cable

Gunmen attacked villages in Plateau state, northcentral Nigeria, killing 29 people and razing houses, survivors and authorities said Tuesday.

Many villagers remained unaccounted for Tuesday evening after the attack, residents said. It was the latest incident in a spiral of violence mainly targeting remote communities in the West African nation.

The gunmen targeted three villages in Plateau state’s Mangu local government area late Monday night and killed several people either with gunfire or after setting their houses ablaze, resident Philip Pamshak said.

“As I am talking to you, they are still attacking people. The tension is still high and there are places the bandits still control, so people are not able to go and check if there are others killed,” Pamshak said.

Plateau Gov. Simon Lalong said he was disturbed by the attack and directed security forces to search for the suspects and prosecute them, according to a statement issued by his spokesman.

“He (the governor) describes this as yet another attempt by crises merchants and criminals to return the state to the dark days of pain and agony,” said Makut Macham, Lalong's spokesman.

Such attacks have become rampant in many parts of Nigeria’s northern region, where several armed groups target villages with inadequate security, either killing or abducting residents and travelers for ransom.

Arrests are rare in such attacks, for which no group typically takes responsibility. However, authorities have in the past identified many of the attackers as former pastoralists who took up arms after decades of conflict with farmers over limited access to land and water.

The security crisis has led to thousands of deaths and defied several government and security measures in the last year.

After the latest killings in Plateau, Lalong directed the emergency response agency to visit the affected communities “to bring succor” to victims and their families, many of whom have either fled the area or have lost their homes, adding to Nigeria’s worsening humanitarian crisis.

Bloomberg

WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Patriot missile defense system in Ukraine likely damaged - US sources

A U.S.-made Patriot missile defense system being used by Ukraine likely suffered some damage from a Russian strike, two U.S. officials said on Tuesday, adding that it did not appear to have been destroyed.

The Patriot system is one of an array of sophisticated air defense units supplied by the West to help Ukraine repel a Russian campaign of air strikes that has targeted critical infrastructure, power facilities and other sites.

One U.S. official, speaking on the condition of anonymity and citing initial information, said Washington and Kyiv were already talking about the best way to repair the system and at this point it did not appear the system would have to be removed from Ukraine.

The official added that the United States would have a better understanding in the coming days and information could change over time.

The Patriot is considered to be one of the most advanced U.S. air defense systems, including against aircraft, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles. It typically includes launchers along with radar and other support vehicles.

Russia's defense ministry said on Tuesday that it had destroyed a U.S.-built Patriot surface-to-air missile defense system with a "hypersonic" Kinzhal missile in an overnight strike on Ukraine.

Ukraine said earlier that it had shot down 18 Russian missiles overnight, including an entire volley of six Kinzhals. When asked about the Ukrainian claim, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu dismissed it, the RIA news agency reported.

It was not clear which Western weapon Ukraine used. The Pentagon had no immediate comment.

** Kyiv says it shoots down volley of Russian hypersonic missiles

Ukraine said on Tuesday it had shot down six Russian Kinzhal missiles in a single night, thwarting a weapon Moscow has touted as a next-generation hypersonic missile that was all but unstoppable.

When asked about the Ukrainian claim, Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu dismissed it, the RIA news agency reported. His ministry said a Kinzhal had destroyed a U.S.-built Patriot surface-to-air missile defence system.

“A high-precision strike by the hypersonic Kinzhal missile hit a U.S.-made Patriot anti-aircraft missile system in the city of Kyiv,” the defence ministry said in a statement.

The commander-in-chief of Ukraine's armed forces, Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, had said earlier that his forces had intercepted the six Kinzhals launched from aircraft, as well as nine Kalibr cruise missiles from ships in the Black Sea and three Iskanders fired from land.

Russia's Shoigu was quoted as saying the number of claimed Ukrainian missile intercepts in general is "three times greater than the number we launch".

"And they get the type of missiles wrong all the time. That's why they don't hit them," he said, without elaborating.

It was the first time Ukraine had claimed to have struck an entire volley of multiple Kinzhal missiles, and if confirmed, would be a demonstration of the effectiveness of its newly deployed Western air defences.

The United States and the European Union have supplied Ukraine with weaponry to defend itself since Russia invaded in February 2022.

EU and NATO member Hungary has refused, however, to provide any military equipment to neighbour Ukraine, and on Tuesday, the government said it had blocked the next tranche of the EU's off-budget military support known as the European Peace Facility.

Air raid sirens blared across nearly all of Ukraine early on Tuesday and were heard over the Ukrainian capital and the surrounding region for more than three hours.

"A year ago, we were not able to shoot down most of the terrorists' missiles, especially ballistic ones," President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said in an address to the Council of Europe rights body in Iceland by video link.

"And I am asking one thing now. If we are able to do this, is there anything we can't do?"

The meeting of European leaders over two days was to focus on ways to hold Russia to account for its war, officials said.

Russia says its invasion was necessary to counter threats to its security posed by Ukraine's growing ties to the West.

Ukraine and its allies call it an unprovoked war of conquest and Ukraine says it won't stop fighting until all Russian forces leave its land.

FLASHES OF LIGHT AND DEBRIS

The six Kinzhals were among 27 missiles Russia fired at Ukraine over 24 hours, Ukraine's military said in its evening update on Tuesday, lighting up Kyiv with flashes and raining debris after they were blasted from the sky.

It was unclear which Western weapon Ukraine used to defend against the Kinzhals. The Pentagon had no immediate comment.

For its part, Russia's defence ministry said its forces delivered a concentrated strike with long-range air- and sea-based high-precision weapons at Ukrainian forces, "as well as at places of storage of ammunition, weapons and military equipment delivered from Western countries”.

Kyiv authorities said three people were wounded by falling debris.

"It was exceptional in its density - the maximum number of attack missiles in the shortest period of time," Serhiy Popko, head of the city military administration, said on Telegram.

Ukraine's military said two S-300 missiles had also targeted infrastructure in Kostyantynivka, west of the embattled eastern city of Bakhmut.

HYPERSONIC SPEED?

This month, Ukraine said it had shot down a single Kinzhal missile over Kyiv for the first time using a newly deployed Patriot system.

The U.S. military confirmed that but did not say whether the Russian missile was flying at hypersonic speed at the time.

The U.S.-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) says the Kinzhal rapidly accelerates to Mach 4 (4,900 km/h) after launch and may reach speeds of up to Mach 10 - or 10 times the speed of sound. Hypersonic weapons travel at least five times the speed of sound.

The Kinzhal missile, the name means dagger, can carry conventional or nuclear warheads up to 2,000 km. Russia used the weapon in war for the first time in Ukraine last year and has only acknowledged firing them on a few occasions.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has frequently touted the Kinzhal as proof of world-beating Russian hardware, capable of taking on NATO.

With Ukraine set to go on the offensive against Russia's invasion for the first time in six months, Russian forces are launching longer-range air strikes at the highest frequency of the war.

Ukraine says it is shooting down most missiles and drones.

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

Ukraine says it shoots down more missiles than Russia fires – Shoigu

Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu has refuted claims made by Ukrainian military officials about shooting down six Russian hypersonic Kinzhal missiles during overnight strikes on targets near the country’s capital city of Kiev.

Ukraine routinely exaggerates the effectiveness of its anti-aircraft defenses, primarily ‘intercepting’ incoming Russian munitions only with public statements, Shoigu told RIA Novosti.

“I have already said that, and I will repeat it again. We have not launched as many ‘Kinzhals’ as they allegedly shoot down every time with their statements. Moreover, the number of these ‘Ukrainian interceptions’ – and who really mans the American [anti-aircraft] complexes there, is still a big question – is three times as high as what we actually launch,” Shoigu stated.

The minister also said that Ukraine “always” misidentifies munitions used by Russia in its media statements. “That’s why they miss them,” he added, without providing any further information on the number of missiles used in the latest barrage.

Ukraine was subjected to a new massive missile and suicide drone barrage overnight, with the country’s capital city of Kiev seeing particularly intense activity by Ukrainian anti-aircraft defenses, footage circulating online suggests.

Moscow and Kiev have provided drastically different accounts of what happened overnight. Kiev claimed that it had shot down six state-of-the-art hypersonic missiles over the capital, as well as other incoming projectiles, using a battery of the US-made Patriot air defense system. The Russian military, however, said the battery was successfully hit by a Kinzhal missile. Footage available online shows multiple anti-aircraft missiles going towards an unseen target, with at least two explosions seen at the site from which they appeared to be launched.

Western media reports suggested the Patriot battery in question was likely damaged in the strike. According to CNN, citing an unidentified US official, Washington is currently assessing the extent of the damage in order to determine whether the Patriots need to be pulled back or whether on-site repairs by Ukrainian forces would be enough.

** Seven UK-supplied Storm Shadow missiles shot down – Moscow

Several Storm Shadow cruise missiles, which were recently supplied to Ukraine by Britain, have been shot down by Russian air defenses over the past 24 hours, its Defense Ministry has said.

“Seven Storm Shadow long-range cruise missiles, three HARM anti-radar missiles and seven HIMARS multiple rocket launcher shells were intercepted,” the ministry’s spokesman, Lieutenant General Igor Konashenkov, announced during a briefing on Tuesday. He didn’t say where the intercepts had taken place.

According to Konashenkov, 22 Ukrainian drones were also destroyed over Russia’s newly incorporated territories: the People’s Republics of Donetsk and Lugansk, and Zaporozhye and Kherson Regions.

The spokesman said Russia’s overnight missile barrage on Ukrainian military formations, hardware, and depots of ammunition and equipment that had been provided by the West had “achieved its goal. All intended targets were hit.”

Among those targets was a US-supplied Patriot missile system, which was destroyed in the capital Kiev by a Kinzhal hypersonic missile, Konashenkov said. 

Russia first announced the downing of a Storm Shadow on Monday, saying that one such missile had been intercepted.

The authorities in Lugansk previously claimed that, over the past few days, the British munitions had been used in several Ukrainian attacks on the city, in which residential buildings were damaged.

Britain confirmed the delivery of Storm Shadow air-launched cruise missiles to Ukraine last week. CNN earlier reported that Kiev had received the munitions well before the official announcement. With a range of up to 300km (200 miles), Storm Shadow became the longest-range weapon supplied to Kiev by its Western backers to date. UK Defense Secretary Ben Wallace claimed that the missiles would allow “Ukraine to push back Russian forces based within Ukrainian sovereign territory.”

Moscow said the decision to provide Storm Shadow missiles to Ukraine was “a very unfriendly step” on the part of Britain, which revealed the country’s “unprecedented level of involvement” in the conflict. The move would lead to “serious escalation” in Ukraine, the Foreign Ministry warned, adding that Russia “reserves the right to take any measures deemed necessary to neutralize a threat” posed by the new weapons.

During more than a year of fighting, Russian officials have often pointed out that deliveries of more sophisticated arms to Ukraine by the US, UK and their allies could cross its ‘red lines’. According to Moscow, the supply of weapons and ammo, as well as intelligence sharing and training provided to Kiev’s forces, have already made Western nations de facto parties to the conflict.

Reuters/RT

Air strikes, artillery fire escalate as factions battle in Sudan capital

Air strikes and artillery fire intensified sharply across Sudan's capital on Tuesday, residents said, as the army sought to defend its bases from paramilitary rivals it has been fighting for more than a month.

The air strikes, explosions and clashes could be heard in the south of Khartoum, and there was heavy shelling across the River Nile in parts of the adjoining cities of Bahri and Omdurman, witnesses said.

The conflict between the army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has triggered unrest elsewhere in Sudan, especially in the western region of Darfur, but is concentrated in Khartoum.

It has caused a humanitarian crisis that threatens to destabilise the region, displacing more than 700,000 people inside Sudan and forcing about 200,000 to flee into neighbouring countries.

Those who have remained in the capital are struggling to survive as food supplies dwindle, health services collapse and lawlessness spreads.

The IFRC humanitarian network said 9 million people were living in close proximity to battles and under severe hardship, and cited reports of increased sexual violence against people on the move as it launched a $33 million fundraising appeal.

Officials have recorded 676 deaths and more than 5,500 injuries, but the real toll is expected to be far higher with many reports of bodies left in the streets and people struggling to bury the dead.

"The situation is unbearable. We left our house to go to a neighbour's house in Khartoum, escaping from the war, but the bombardment follows us wherever we go," said Ayman Hassan, a 32-year-old Khartoum resident.

"We don't know what the citizens did to deserve a war in the middle of the houses."

JEDDAH TALKS

Fighting has surged both in Khartoum and in Geneina, capital of West Darfur, since the two warring parties began talks in Jeddah brokered by Saudi Arabia and the United States more than a week ago.

The talks have produced a statement of principles on protecting civilians and allowing aid supplies, but mechanisms for humanitarian corridors and agreeing a ceasefire are still being discussed.

Both sides had previously announced several ceasefires, none of which stopped the fighting.

The army has mainly used air strikes and shelling as it seeks to push back RSF forces from positions across Khartoum.

It has accused the RSF of using captured army officers and their families as human shields, something the RSF has denied.

The RSF attacked major military bases in northern Omdurman and southern Khartoum on Tuesday in an apparent attempt to prevent the army from deploying heavy weaponry and fighter jets, residents and witnesses said.

The RSF said it had captured hundreds of army troops in Bahri, releasing footage of rows of seated men in uniform with RSF fighters celebrating around them. Reuters could not immediately verify the claim, which the army denied.

The army has been trying to cut off RSF supply lines and to secure strategic sites including the airport in central Khartoum and the major Al-Jaili oil refinery in Bahri, where fighting flared again on Tuesday.

RSF forces also detained Anas Omer, an outspoken senior member of the ruling party under deposed former leader Omar al-Bashir, from his home in Khartoum, Omer's son told Reuters.

The RSF has accused the army of working with loyalists of the former regime, a charge the army has denied.

HOMES DESTROYED

The war began after disputes over plans for the RSF to join the army and the future chain of command under an internationally backed deal for a political transition towards civilian rule and elections.

Army chief General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and RSF commander Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti, took the top positions on Sudan's ruling council following the 2019 overthrow of Bashir during a popular uprising.

They staged a coup two years later as a deadline to hand power to civilians approached, began to mobilise their respective forces as mediators tried to finalise the transition plan.

Both sides courted foreign backing from regional states attracted by Sudan's mineral and agricultural wealth, and its strategic location between the Sahel and the Gulf.

Most of those fleeing Sudan have headed north to Egypt or west to Chad, which borders Darfur. Others have headed to Port Sudan on the Red Sea, hoping to catch boats to Saudi Arabia.

"We came from war, we lost our husbands, our homes were destroyed," said Reem, a student camped out in scorching heat in Port Sudan with hundreds of others. "Even if there were peace, where are we going to live if we go back?"

Reuters

Spoiler alert: I am not going to talk about how ChatGPT responds when prompted about economic-development strategies. It basically regurgitates reasonable, but mediocre ideas that it has seen in its training set. But ChatGPT’s design, which has given it far greater capabilities than its creators anticipated, offers a valuable lesson for tackling the complexities of economic development.

For more than a decade, deep neural networks (DNNs) have outperformed all other artificial-intelligence technologies, driving significant advances in computer vision, speech recognition, and translation. The emergence of generative AI chatbots like ChatGPT continue this trend.

To learn, AI algorithms require training, which can be achieved through two main approaches: supervised and unsupervised learning. In supervised learning, humans provide the computer with a set of labeled pictures such as “dog,” “cat,” “hamburger,” “car,” and so on. The algorithm is then tested to see how well it predicts the labels associated with images it has not yet seen.

The problem with the supervised approach is that it requires humans to go through the tedious process of manually labeling every picture. By contrast, unsupervised learning does not rely on labeled data. But the absence of labels raises the question of what the algorithm is supposed to learn. To address this, ChatGPT trains the algorithm simply to predict the next word of the text that is used to train it.

Predicting the next word may seem like a trivial task, akin to the auto-complete function in Google Search. But ChatGPT’s model allows it to perform highly complicated tasks, such as passing the bar exam with a better score than most high-performing law students.

The key to such feats lies in the impressive power of this simple learning process. In order to predict the next word, the algorithm is forced to develop a nuanced understanding of context, grammar, syntax, style, and much more. The level of sophistication it achieved surprised everybody, including its designers. DNNs proved capable of functioning much better without trying to incorporate into learning language models the theories that linguists had developed for decades.

The lesson for economic development is that policymakers should focus on a task that may seem mundane, provided that to excel at it, they will indirectly be forced to learn much more intricate development challenges.

By contrast, the prevailing approach in the field of development economics has been to distinguish between proximate causes and deeper determinants of growth and to focus on the latter. This approach is analogous to saying, “Instead of trying to predict the next word, understand the context and meaning of the entire book.”

In their 2012 book Why Nations Fail, for example, Daron Acemoglu and James A. Robinson argue that institutions, by affecting the structure of incentives in society, are the ultimate determinant of economic outcomes. Brown University economist Oded Galor has taken a different approach, emphasizing the complex demographic and technological transformations that brought humanity out of the Malthusian equilibrium and led to longer life expectancy, lower fertility rates, and higher investment in education. Together, these trends boosted women’s participation in the labor force and increased the availability of skills needed to sustain technology adoption and economic growth.

But do these theories match the facts? Over the past four decades, the developing world has indeed undergone many of the radical transformations that Galor described. As the late physician Hans Rosling observed, the gaps between developing and developed countries in life expectancy, infant mortality, fertility, education, university enrollment, female labor-force participation, and urbanization have all narrowed sharply. Reasoning à la Acemoglu and Robinson, developing countries’ institutions could not be all that bad if they were able to deliver progress on so many fronts. In Galor’s framework, progress on all these fronts should explain why developing countries caught up so much with the developed world in terms of income.

Except that they did not: the median country is no closer to US income levels than it was four decades ago. How is it possible that the narrowing gaps in education, health, urbanization, and female empowerment failed to narrow the income gap as well? Why hasn’t progress in the supposed deeper determinants delivered the goods?

To make sense of this puzzling outcome, economists invoke a widening technological gap. More than an explanation, this is a mathematical necessity: if more inputs do not generate more output, something must be making inputs less effective.

To explain this unexpected outcome, it is useful to note that the few countries that did manage to catch up share two distinctive features: their exports grew much faster than their GDP, and they diversified their exports by shifting toward more complex goods.

To achieve this feat, these successful countries must have adopted and adapted better technologies, adjusted the provision of public goods and their institutions to support emerging industries, and reduced inefficiencies and costs by increasing productivity and training workers. In that process, they may have fixed a bunch of other problems.

A ChatGPT-inspired development strategy would focus on a simple goal: to improve the competitiveness, diversity, and complexity of exports. Figuring out how to do this would force policymakers to learn how to do important things, just like predicting the next word enabled ChatGPT to learn context, grammar, syntax, and style.

Like early AI programmers who were sidetracked by linguists and their convoluted theories, policymakers have been distracted by too many objectives, such as the 17 United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. But applying the ChatGPT approach to economic development could simplify things: just as the language model tries to predict only the next word, policymakers could try to focus on facilitating the next export, as successful countries seem to have done. While this may seem like a small step, it could lead to surprisingly significant results.

Project Syndicate

Unrealistic optimism and boundless passion are critical parts of any good entrepreneur's DNA. If building something new and important from nothing was easy, anyone could do it.

And if everyone knew how difficult starting a business was going to be, no one would ever try. Persevering in the face of what appear to be overwhelming odds is also part of the requirements to eventually get to the finish line.

But what it doesn't take is lying to your peers, investors and customers, as well as to the media. That's crossing a line that no one should ever cross. And whether you acknowledge it to yourself or not, there's a surprisingly bright boundary in almost every case.

There's a day or a point in time or an ethical test that presents a clear choice; you don't slip or fall into fraud, it's a straightforward decision. You either consciously plunge forward into the abyss of illegality or you sharply pull back and stay legit.

This is why it's so important for the people who are trying to build real businesses in the right way to call out the cheats and creeps.

To make sure that everyone sees that – even if we all admit to ourselves just how easy cheating might be – there's a substantive and real difference between readily available rationalizations to justify illegal acts and actually making that initial bad decision to head down the wrong road.

But just because you can understand the complexities, temptations and risks doesn't mean you get to stand quietly by – especially when it's your own business that's being adversely impacted by competitors willing to do and say anything to get the sale. You're the one who has to act, even if it's clearly not easy.

I call this asymmetric competition (or bringing a knife to a gunfight) because one side is always trying to do the right thing and compete fairly while the other side has no limits, no ethics and no boundaries on how low they're willing to go.

In fact, the Orange Monster and the scum on the other side think that dishonesty is an admirable survival skill and claim, much like Trump bragging about being smart enough to evade any taxes.

That cutting corners, shaving points and edges and using inferior goods and components are all part of a big game where only winning ultimately matters. As Hitler said: "It is not truth that matters, but victory. The victor will never be asked if he told the truth."

Confronting and dealing with competitors who are lying to your customers is a very complicated task.

There's a fine line in the customers' minds between complaining and whining and the problem is growing because in the Trump era, where no lie is too big, bold or unthinkable, the numbers of unscrupulous players are multiplying.

It's becoming more and more difficult for buyers to determine who's telling the truth and who isn't. Worse yet, in the startup world, facts and factoids are often confused and concrete "proof" is often hard to come by.

Consider that JPMorgan Chase alleges it got hoodwinked by Charlie Javice, the  30-year-old founder of Frank, a fin tech the bank bought for $175 million.  The celebrated "fake it" culture and the media's glorification of growth at any cost, hasn't helped to clarify the worsening situation although we do seem to finally be turning a corner.  

It's been encouraging to belatedly see the demise of the "fake it 'til you make it" excuse for outright and grievous instances of theft and fraud although the general commentary in the mainstream media stills lags in calling out the harsh realities in many of these cases.

It appears that, in addition to simply creating copy, filling space and dancing around the truth, too many members of the tech press feel obliged to insert a paragraph or two reciting this old Silicon Valley saw, apparently in the name of neutrality, objectivity and even-handedness.    

In truth, spewing this bullshit adds nothing helpful to the conversation. This startup malarky persists even after convincing and broad-ranging criminal convictions.

It confuses and confounds the public and prospective investors, misleads other serious and honest entrepreneurs and frankly continues to provide some shelter and comfort to people who are demonstrably criminal.

We just had another round of criminal convictions in Chicago in the Outcome Health cases and sadly there are still far too many social media comments about how the thieves and villains are nice folks and did so many supportive things for others right up until the time their criminal scams and schemes were disclosed and prosecuted.

There really aren't two sides to these stories. Try telling the firemen that the arsonists aren't really such bad guys – they just have a thing for matches.

This bogus approach closely resembles the oblivious stupidity of the political press in constantly attempting to equitably compare the positions of conscientious and well-intentioned Democratic politicians with the dishonest, manipulative and extortionate proposals of performative MAGA morons whose sole interests are to delay, disrupt and interfere with the ongoing governance activities of the Congress and with those of state legislatures as well.

Instead of talking about what's happening in Washington, where one party is creating a potential catastrophe and attempting to hold the country and the economy hostage to their crazy demands, the media talks about the situation as if it were a normal, two-sided conversation among rational actors instead of a circus conducted by performative assholes.

These acts are so outside of the norm that the traditionalist and temperate Democrats like Dick Durbin don't even know how to address them.

It's hard to pretend that it's business as usual when people you have to call your colleagues are lying to your face and to the public daily, but that's what's going on and the country's much the worse for it.

Startup entrepreneurs face the same problem: Trying to honestly compete with liars and criminals in their own marketplaces. You've got to say something, you need to call the customers' and clients' attention to the situation – both for their sake and your own – but it's a difficult conversation to have.

It's frankly surprising how often we have to rediscover an old and very basic lesson,  which is that customers and clients don't really care even a little bit about your constraints and concerns, even when they clearly should. Even if theirbusinesses could also be at risk.

The pandemic presented case after case of this problem – honest suppliers (especially of food products) incurred enormous additional costs to avoid any risks of passing on virus-contaminated material.  But many were woefully unsupported when they tried to share these costs with customers.

They were happy to find lower-cost and less  conscientious vendors willing to sell them similar products and who falsely claimed that they had also taken suitable steps and precautions to avoid any problems.

In the end, your customers and clients believe that they hired you to do a job and not much else matters – get the job done, now and correctly.

They don't want you to waste their time with apologies or excuses. If that's all you've got to try to justify your concerns, you can bet that there's going to be some unhappy times ahead.

Let's be clear, though, that an apology isn't an excuse. Honestly, there's no such thing these days as a good excuse. But a thoughtful and solid explanation of the situation is an entirely different thing. The trick is to find the right way and the right time to tell your story.

Here are three key things to keep in mind.

(1)  The context of these kinds of conversations matters at least as much as the content. Find the right time and place and make sure that the customer is willing and able to listen. A congested and busy office isn't the right place.

A rushed phone call or having the talk while standing in the hall between meetings won't get the job done. Invest the time to make the conversation personal. Forget Zoom,  face-to-face matters.

(2)  In the war on truth that's raging these days, the only certain way to lose is to be passive. Honesty is difficult and sometimes painful at first, but it's the only way to develop a long-term relationship based on trust, which is the ultimate key to success.

A sincere effort is all anyone can ask. If you tell the truth, the truth becomes part of your past. If you lie, the lie becomes part of your future. The truth only hurts when it ought to.

(3)  Focus on a few important facts and stick to your story. It's more important to repeat the critical and personal concerns than to try to cover everything. Our minds process meaning before details. Passion and energy are more compelling and effective than a particularized parade of horrible.

 Take your time and be patient. Don't lose your place or your temper. If you're angry, people will focus on your anger and not on the facts that matter.

The objective in these conversations isn't to sell, convince, or share your burdens; it's to demonstrate why it's in the customers' own best interests to look carefully at the alternatives and the risks they face before they make the wrong choice.

Inc