President Buhari’s presence at Tinubu’s 66th Birthday Colloquium was a public affirmation of a rapprochement between two men, who had been estranged for the better part of the pendency of the APC’s control of the Federal Government. It can, in fact, be regarded as a celebration of Tinubu’s rehabilitation and reintegration into the federal power circle, a process that began with the rapid appearances of Tinubu (with Akande) at the Villa and his weird commission by Buhari, as the Chief Peacemaker of the APC (weird because the party is not an arm of the presidency).

Will Tinubu fall for Buhari’s charm offensive and put his heart into the APC mission of renewing its hold on power? Will he put behind him the humiliation of the last 33 months and move on with the project at hand? Of course, that would depend on how much concession he can squeeze out of Buhari as well as the depth of his faith that he would keep his word. For most people, looking in from the outside, there is no guarantee that he will not be used and dumped again.

To be sure, Tinubu was the architect of his own misfortune. His marginalization was the product of his political naivette, inability to fathom the mindset of Buhari as a Fulani, an Army General, a former Head of State and Commander-in-Chief as well as an undiscerning enthusiasm to be a national political hero cum power broker. The picture that, frequently, emerged, in the media, was that of Tinubu and Akande meeting with Buhari to fine tune the coalition of political parties that, eventually, became All Progressive Party (APC).

Whereas Tinubu was a lord unto himself (being the dominant voice in his political machine), Buhari, who, ironically, always appeared alone was carrying the aspiration of an empire, whose hegemonistic agenda has not wavered in more than 160 years - the Caliphate. It was obvious, in his aloofness from the exuberance and razz-mataz of the campaign rallies, that his agenda was not the CHANGE which the propagandists of his party, enthusiastically, promoted but the strategic, geopolitical mission of RESTORATION, which was the desire and mandate of his primary constituency. While Tinubu and his cohorts were dancing, exuberantly, to the percursion of 'change', Buhari was swaying to the mighty prospects of 'restoration'. Although both men succeeded in forging a common political platform, they were very far apart in their aspirations. There was no way Tinubu could have been accommodated in a mission of restoration.

Tinubu also failed one of the elementary tests of political negotiation -you do not go away with less than you take in. He took in six states and got nothing; Buhari took in one state and got Nigeria. It has been argued, of course, that the times called for a presidential candidate who could frighten/defeat Jonathan but, really, any major northern politician could have given him a run for his money. Tinubu was the one who should have hand-picked the presidential candidate. Atiku or Kwankwaso could have been in his best interest, being civilians and seasoned politicians, steeped in the art of political negotiations and compromises. Buhari, an army general, former Head of State and Commander-in -chief was already formed in the tradition of winner-take-all. With the formidable Caliphate behind him, Tinubu didn’t stand a chance of controlling a Buhari presidency. As things turned out, he hardly ever was able to see Buhari, talk less of putting a word in. Not that he did not try.

In the early days of the Buhari Presidency and euphoria of electoral victory, Tinubu operated as an alternate president and sought to consolidate his position as National Leader. He was the magnet for all those seeking positions and influence in the new administration. He, brazenly, wanted to instal his own men as President of the Senate and Speaker, House of Representatives. It was, even, rumored that he 'ordered' the Inspector General of Police to seal up the National Assembly to prevent the two houses from conducting preemptive elections.

With the Vice President, President of the Senate and the Speaker of the House in his orbit, Buhari would have needed to seek out Tinubu for his every move. Tinubu would have had the machinery of impeachment in his grips. The Lagos formula would have been re-enacted in Abuja.

Alas, Abuja is not Lagos and Buhari was not alone - presidents are never alone. Apart from the army of hard-nosed technocrats, political strategists of all persuasions, seasoned courtiers and limitless supply of gratuitous advisers, he also had (still has) the mighty capacity of the Caliphate behind him. Tinubu was no match and he was, swiftly, deconstructed. He lost out on every front - the Senate, House of Representatives, Kogi, Ministerial appointments, etc. For the 33 months of the control of the federal government by a party he contributed the most to bring into being, Tinubu was, in the very credible words of his wife, a Senator, Mrs Oluremi Tinubu, 'THRASHED' by Buhari and his inner caucus.

It does not require space science to know why Buhari is now wooing Tinubu and bringing him to the centre stage of APC politics. Although Tinubu has lost a great deal of his pre-2015 elections aura, there is nobody in the South West that can match his political experience, influence, network, wealth and mobilising capacity. If anyone can win votes for Buhari, it must be Tinubu. Buhari needs the South West and by every logic, he needs Tinubu. But does Tinubu need Buhari? The answer is No and Yes.

Having been denied the opportunity to enjoy power, at the federal level, with all the largese that goes with it, Tinubu and his inner circle have retreated to their bastion of strength and adjusted their sights to the honey pot in Lagos, an ever budgeoning one at that. With a trillion naira budget and the massive growth of the Lagos economy, Lagos politicians should, really, not miss much at the centre. This is more true of Tinubu, who is the master of the Lagos economy, than most.
Paradoxically, this is the very reason Tinubu needs Buhari as much, if not more than Buhari needs him. Put blankly, Tinubu does not have the luxury of not supporting Buhari. The reason is quite simple; elections are manipulated by political parties in Nigeria, in the words of Buhari himself, in proportion to the resources available to them. The PDP, in Lagos, failed in four attempts (2003, 2007, 2011, 2015) to unlock the iron grip of Tinubu, because they were, simply, unable to mobilize the resources to outbid him. It is one thing to garner the popular votes, it is another to be declared the winner.

Let us call a spade a spade, as long as there is no undue interference from the Federal Government, nobody can take away Lagos from Tinubu’s political machine and I am not talking of popular votes. Please forget such fancy liberal, romantic ideas of free and fair elections. They, simply, have not happened and are unlikely to happen in Nigeria, in the near term, especially, in Lagos. Tinubu and the Lagos political elites have not been happy with Buhari and may have been inclined to think of dumping him. They will be well advised to know where their bread is buttered and it is being very well buttered at the moment. There are people waiting in the wings (even within his own party) who are eager to throw sand into that butter. He can only keep his grip on Lagos if he has the assurance of institutional support of the Federal Government. This cannot be guaranteed, indeed, will not be available if he is not in the Buhari camp. lt is a risk, not worth taking.

From the point of view of enlightened self interest, it would be safe to infer that Tinubu will hang in with Buhari. Whether or not he can deliver the South West to him is another matter. If popular opinion is anything to go by, pushing Buhari's candidacy, in the South West, in 2019, may be as tasking as selling snow to Eskimos.

*Femi Otubanjo, a Professor of Political Science lives in Lagos