I think so too, that Russian President Vladimir Putin was NOT bluffing when he spoke about his determination to protect what he called the territorial integrity of his country, ‘by any means possible!’ Beyond this broad rhetoric, he spoke specifically about the usability of the fearsome nuclear arsenal of the successor State to the defunct Soviet Union. And now that the four eastern and southern territories of Ukraine – Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson – are getting incorporated into Russia, the term ‘territorial integrity’ has suddenly attained a higher meaning. The point in all of these is that Russia is declaring quite unequivocally its willingness to go to any length to defend these new territories, which now constitute – in Moscow’s own thinking – part of Russian territory.

Meanwhile, with a vehemence that is not often seen elsewhere – the Middle East, for example – where forceful annexation of territory had taken place (often with US connivance), the Western alliance is trumpeting its commitment to frustrating the steps Russia is taking in this regard. The UN Security Council that should ordinarily be the broker of some form of agreement is itself paralysed; understandably so, given that all its members are either directly involved or have taken positions on the war in Ukraine. Unfortunately, for some inexplicable reasons, the UN Secretary General, Antonio Guterres, is not stepping into the fray; not deploying the moral force of his office to get something done. No shuttle diplomacy, no inspirational words, no appeal to what remains of the goodness of humanity. Guterres is only content at staying back in his New York headquarters, and issuing, once in a while, bland press statements that amount practically to nothing.

The import of all of these is that it is high time this unnecessary but highly destructive war, with globally ramifying implications, was brought to an end. There is no denying the fact that Russia has legitimate security concerns and claims in Ukraine, especially vis-a-vis the subject of eastward expansion of NATO. And as the situation gets more complicated, the key players need be reminded that you do not take for granted a man that has the largest arsenal of nuclear weapons under his belt. That, either we like it or not, is what Putin represents today. Not since the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962 has the world been this close to a nuclear catastrophe. Former US President Jimmy Carter (Jan. 14, 1981) put the apocalyptic scenario – which the world may now be facing – so aptly years ago.

According to him, "the survivors, if any (of a nuclear war), would live in despair amid the poisoned ruins of a civilisation that had committed suicide." It is, therefore, not a smart option to call the bluff of a President Putin that is convinced the West is aiming at his country's jugular, just so to destroy it. Those concerns, he reiterated so powerfully again in his speech, delivered a couple of days ago, to announce the annexation of these four regions of Ukraine.

Also of significance is that in these situations, the possibility of policy miscalculation cannot be ruled out. Afterall, it has been demonstrated that virtually all the wars fought in the past century were products of miscalculation (Stoessinger, 2011). President John Kennedy too, warned about this more than 60 years ago, in 1961 thus: "Today, every inhabitant of this planet must contemplate the day when this planet may no longer be habitable. Every man, woman and child lives under a nuclear sword of Damocles, hanging by the slenderest of threads, capable of being cut at any moment by accident or miscalculation or by madness. The weapons of war must be abolished before they abolish us." And as the UN Secretary General has noted, with what is happening now in Ukraine, it is obvious that "humanity is just one misunderstanding, one miscalculation away from nuclear annihilation" (Guterres, 1 Aug, 2022).

As I counselled in an interview with Nigeria’s Channels TV’s Ladi Akeredolu-Ale, September 6, 2022, the theatre of this war may be expanding very soon, and rapidly too. Now, the Nord Stream pipelines have been sabotaged! – with dire implications for the energy situation in Europe. The reported reversals in the theatre of war in Kyiv’s favour, though tenuous, and may be, for a fleeting moment, is significant too. I also ventured that the time was ripe for the United States and its European allies to put on their thinking cap, step back and allow this war, which is dangerously escalating, to be brought to an end. And this has to be on the basis of some realistic considerations that are broad enough to accommodate the most important interests of the gladiators, away from extant narrow and particularistic views and ambitions that have no basis in reality. It is important this is done before the unimaginable begins to happen, to the peril, not just of Europe, the very theatre of the war, but indeed, the entire world! It needs to sink in, that Vladimir Putin may indeed, not be bluffing!

• Mimiko, mni, professor of political science, is of the Department of Political Science, Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife.