“All political parties die at last of swallowing their own lies” – Arbuthnot, 1667-1735, VANGUARD BOOK OF QUOTATIONS, VBQ, p 191. 

Note: This article started on the day of the Ondo State election. The result was not surprising. “You can’t beat something with nothing”. PDP is now nothing. Obong Victor Attah, a former governor of Akwa Ibom State and former Trustee of the PDP, is an internationally-recognised architect. He was the first African to be granted licence to practice as an architect in New York State.

Attah turned 86 on November 20 this year. Few Nigerians are aware that Attah designed the PDP flag. As a member of the G-34, a group led by late Alex Ekwueme, former Vice President, 1979-1983, and an artist like all architects, the flag symbolised an all-inclusive party. Its original constitution reflected the intention of the founding fathers to create a society in which glaring marginalisation of any group will not be allowed.

Ekwueme was on the way to becoming the first President elected under the PDP banner when powerful people intruded into the party; forced PDP to violate its own constitution and accept Olusegun Obasanjo as their candidate. The facts are detailed in PDP: CORRUPTION INCORPORATED. Self-righteous Obasanio was thus the first beneficiary of the corruption of a sacred set of political principles laid out by patriotic Nigerians. Obasanjo quickly moved to dismantle the PDP constitution and to substitute one which was an image of himself – a dictator at heart; despite his hypocritical pronouncements now.

He appointed and removed party Chairmen at will and approved candidates for elections at all three tiers of government. How he removed Audu Ogbeh would bring tears to anyone’s eyes. He sowed the seeds of the destruction of Nigeria’s democracy. Today, Attah is no longer active in politics. But, at 86, he must certainly feel disillusioned by what the PDP has become. The flag he designed is now a mockery of what the PDP has become in his life time. I was still writing this article when the result of the Ondo State election was announced.

It is predictable what will follow. There will be a massive desertion of the PDP to the APC. A few years ago, when the late Vincent Ogbulafor, then Chairman of the party, announced, as if he was God, that “PDP will rule for sixty years”, I told him that he will not live for 70 years, but, he might live long enough to see the party out of power. He did both. PDP had been living on borrowed time since (President) Jonathan lost control of the party and suffered defeat.

Now time has run out for the party. Even now, close to half of the leading members of the APC were once in PDP. More will now follow; leaving a party so weak as not to offer much opposition to the APC. Daniel Bwala, a former spokesman for Atiku, the presidential candidate of the PDP in the 2023 elections, who was blasting the APC as lustfully as he did since the elections in September this year, had been invited by President Tinubu to “come and eat”.

He quickly accepted the offer and is now eating in Aso Rock and singing the praises of his new paymaster. That raises the question: Which party will defeat APC in 2027? The answer curiously enough might be APC itself or a new party primarily northern based. In fact, we might be heading for regional parties such as we had before 1960. Two developments account for this position. One, the APC, never a political party, in just nine and a half years, has left the North reassessing its support for APC.

The eight years of Buhari blinded the people to assume that the party was working in their own interests. His departure had laid bare the truth. Under Buhari, APC was a party of the elite, by the elite and for the elite. Tinubu’s presidency has marginalised the northern elite; like never before. They want to redress the situation as soon as possible. Two, hitherto, northerners have lacked a rallying point; there was no common agenda. Tinubu’s Tax Reform Bills, considered anti-North by the vast majority, have provided the impetus for regional collective action.

It is doubtful if any northern politician will support the bills and survive politically. As one old friend from the North-West told me, “I canvassed for votes for Tinubu. He is holding a knife to our throats in the North. We will not allow him to get away with it.” It was, therefore, not surprising to me that all the northern governors are opposed to the Tax Bills. The real surprise was the unanimous opposition of southern governors as well.

Given the fact that the majority of governors belong to the APC, that has revealed the lack of principle within the party. It is doubtful if any Republican governor will oppose a Tax Bill proposed by (incoming US president) Trump because the party’s position on taxation has been consistent for over a hundred years. A situation in which the president’s own party governors and most National Assembly members might turn against him is worrisome – even if expected in a nation where politics without principles is the norm.

TAX REFORM: POSSIBLE ISOLATION OF LAGOS

“There are plans from Lagos to colonise the North” – Kwankwaso.

The presidential candidate of the NNPP is not alone in condemning the Tax Reform Bills; which most commentators, nationally, have not read; and very few understand. But, it now serves as a fulcrum for moving massive northern sentiments against the APC in the region. The Arewa Consultative Forum, ACF, a few days after Kwankwaso spoke, made an even more unmistakable declaration.

2027: “North will be best served by northerners” – Report, November 21, 2024.

Just in case anybody in Abuja misses the point, the ACF Chairman said: “Notwithstanding the parlous state of Arewa’s glaring economic conditions, the policies of the current Federal Government has continued to make matters much worse, with little indications of needed sensitivity to the precarious existential conditions of Arewa people… economic reforms while indeed desirable, should not impoverish the same people they are meant to serve…” Battle line drawn. Elected, as well as appointed, APC northern politicians are now confronted with an unpleasant dilemma: Continue supporting Tinubu and his policies or bail out. Either way, there will be serious consequences. I don’t envy Vice President Shetimma or Ganduje. The attempt by the Board of Trustees, BOT, of the ACF to distance the old association from Mamman Osuman’s outburst by suspending the Chairman was a blunder.

The blowback by several northern groups, especially youth groups, points to the possibility that the more cautious and conservative elders might not be aware of the depth of hostility to FG’s reforms. Nigeria is getting ripe for demagogues. Historically, demagoguery triumphs when there is a very angry, dissatisfied section of the populace who want simple answers to very complicated problems; and when the section can identify another distinct group to blame for its problems.

Kwankwaso, focusing on the section of the Tax Bills which recommends the principle of derivation to be adopted for Value Added Tax, VAT, revenue allocation, represents the northern view that with Lagos accounting for over 50 per cent of the VAT revenue collected, any change in that direction will adversely affect their states. Kwankwaso has deliberately ignored the fact that not only northern states will be affected. Even all the rest of the South-West states will lose.

But, Tinubu is from Lagos State; so the conspiracy to further impoverish the North must be a Lagos agenda. That is most unfortunate; because it has shifted the discussion from addressing the merits of the tax proposal to North versus Lagos. More unfortunate is the fact that the northern leaders conveniently forget that the Nigerian economy was already ruined by the time Buhari finished his eight years in office. More importantly, as the Emir of Kano, Lamido, has warned repeatedly, the North was ruining itself – not Lagos.

Virtually all those in APC, NNPP and LP in the North were in PDP before; when the seeds of destruction of the economy were sown. Not to be left behind, the Northern Elders Forum, NEF, led by Ango Abdullahi, sent a chilling message. Read some of it; and it is clear why political lines have disappeared in the North: “The Tax Reform Bills are conceived in bad faith, poorly packaged and is a palpable threat to our unity and national cohesion.

The brazen way and suspicious manner in which the Tax Bills were imposed on the nation confirmed the sinister intentions of those promoting this outrageous Bill. The days are fast gone when such conspiratorial connivance against the vital and strategic interest of the region, either by those within or outside of the region, would be condoned or even tolerated”.

Non-partisan political war could not have been more brutally declared. The attackers have the advantage. Serious economic hardship, especially coming so suddenly and brutally, invariably gives rise to the search for scapegoats – people on whom to place the blame. Despite Benjamin Franklin’s, 1706-1790, position that, “In this world, nothing can be said to be certain, except death and taxes”, few people except government officials want to hear the word TAX. But, where there are political parties in the real sense of the word, the Tax Bills should have been discussed with party leaders of the ruling party; and everybody should now be out fighting for its passage. The party no longer counts in this struggle.

LAST LINE: Tinubu and his inner circle of advisers missed a vital step in advancing the Tax Bills. Now, the Bills are virtually dead on arrival.

Vanguard