US President Donald Trump’s penchant for shaking things up is fracturing the Global North. The Global South must remain steadfast in its commitment to peaceful development and seize this moment to advance a more equitable and just global order.
One of the central focuses of last week’s “two sessions”, China’s annual parliamentary meetings, is the increasingly prominent role of private technology companies in driving the country’s development. Indeed, a decade after the launch of the “Made in China 2025” initiative, most of its targets have been achieved, positioning the country as a global technological powerhouse.
Through the Digital Silk Road and companies like DeepSeek, China’s advancements are helping to propel the Global South’s Fourth Industrial Revolution, enabling countries in Africa, for example, to leapfrog development stages in their race to embrace the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution.
If President Xi Jinping’s “Made in China 2025” initiative has met most of its goals, President Trump’s second attempt to “Make America Great Again” (Maga) is off to a contentious and rocky start. For instance, efforts to improve government efficiency through the Department of Government Efficiency (Doge) programme have drawn criticism, with some accusing the Trump administration of steering US democracy towards authoritarianism.
Last month’s altercation between Trump and Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky in the Oval Office was, for many, a watershed moment. It marked the unravelling of the transatlantic alliance and signalled the decline of US leadership in the post-World War II liberal international order.
For some, the post-Cold War era is transitioning from Francis Fukuyama’s idealistic vision of the “end of history”, where liberal democracy triumphs, to Samuel Huntington’s ominous view of a “clash of civilisations”, where race and religion become flashpoints and “might makes right” prevails.
Trump’s Maga world view has undoubtedly fuelled the rise of a far-right global movement, hinting at the potential for conflict along civilisational lines. Trump’s retreat from US global leadership has also had more immediate consequences: pulling out of the Paris Agreement and World Health Organization, as well as defunding USAID, the US Agency for International Development, has weakened efforts to tackle pressing humanitarian crises.
Nonetheless, Trump’s disruptive policies have also generated unexpected outcomes. The scaling back of USAID could also signal the closing of a dark chapter: US covert operations aimed at promoting democracy through sowing dissent and regime change.
Indeed, the American global campaign to advance rights and freedom has not only relied on illicit tactics but also led to disastrous wars, as seen in Iraqand Afghanistan. The demise of the US-led world order is unlikely to be mourned by countries in the Global South. But what will emerge to replace the crumbling Western-centric international order remains uncertain.
One thing seems clear: Trump’s aversion to war. During the recent tense meeting, Trump warned Zelensky against risking a third world war. For Trump, it is evident that a direct conflict between the United States and Russia could escalate into nuclear war.
This underscores the reality of today’s great power rivalry: any open military conflict between the US, Russia and China could lead to mutual self-destruction. Ironically, despite his seemingly amoral and transactional approach, it is Trump – among Western leaders – who appears to have fully grasped the existential dangers confronting humanity.
Some speculate that Trump could negotiate a grand bargain reminiscent of the Yalta Conference, with Russia and China, aiming to establish a modern-day Monroe Doctrinethat carves out separate spheres of influence among the three nuclear-armed superpowers. While it may not entirely eliminate the risk of war, this trilateral agreement could significantly lower the chances of catastrophic conflicts in hotspots like the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait.
Herein lies the complexity of Trump 2.0: his “America first” foreign policy is disruptive, impeding collective efforts to address looming global crises. But his attempt to shake things up has also created opportunities to mitigate the risk of great power conflicts. Yet these openings for peace may be short-lived.
Trump’s efforts to broker peace with Russia have been criticised as appeasement. While some in the European Union vow to continue supporting Ukraine in the war, others advocate for Europe to step into the role traditionally held by the US in defending the liberal international order.
Trump has upended America’s long-held self-ascribed role as the defender of democracy and human rights. However, it is doubtful Trump alone is enough to fully detach Americans from their self-perception as of a “city upon a hill”. After Trump, Americans may well revert to their sense of a manifest destiny as the guardian of the free world.
Trump’s wrecking-ball tactics have fractured the Western alliance. What emerges from this fracture remains uncertain. What is clear is that a divided Global North, much like a united one, could pose significant challenges and risks to the Global South.
In his “two sessions” work report, Chinese Premier Li Qiang outlined a plan to boost consumption as a key driver of domestic economic growth, alongside expanding the role of the private sector. But Li also highlighted external uncertainties and risks, such as the massive tariffs imposed by Trump, which have escalated into a trade war and now threaten the global economy.
In April, President Xi is expected to make a state visit to Malaysia, which is also scheduled in May to host the first top-level meeting between the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, Gulf Cooperation Council and China: the Asean+GCC+China summit.
These meetings are taking place amid historic shifts in the Global North, triggered by Trump’s America-first foreign policy. In response, countries in the Global South must remain committed to peaceful development, seizing this moment to promote an open, inclusive world order grounded in common interests and mutual respect.
SCMP
