Sho Dewan

Leaders are not born, they’re made. It may sound cliché but it’s true, as leadership is a skill that can be cultivated through experience, learning, and adaptability. Managers play a huge role in their team’s success, as employees reporting to effective managers are 15 times more likely to be high performers, according to a Gartner survey.

Whether you’re navigating your first team meeting or making critical decisions, the first days in the role could be overwhelming. To help you find your footing in this new realm, here are three tips to guide you through and shape your path to success.

Be Transparent With The Team

As a new manager, trust is among the most important things to have within your team, and it is built through transparency. Start with having open and honest communication with the team. Share with them relevant information about team goals, company updates, and changes that may impact them. Be clear about what you know and what you don’t know.

Jessica Chen, the author of the bestselling communications book, “Smart, Not Loud: How to Get Noticed at Work for All the Right Reasons” shares in her book how being transparent and proactive can also help bolster your credibility. And she’s an expert at doing so herself, as it was her personal branding & leadership posts on LinkedIn that led me to get connected with her in the first place!

When speaking to her about her experience working with new managers, she shared this lesson: “If we face tricky conversations at work, it’s important not to hide or avoid it. Instead, the best managers stop and think about what went wrong, when things went wrong, and how to communicate it with tact.”

“In fact, building credibility has nothing to do with your title or number of years worked. It is something that is proactive and top of mind,” Chen added.

This also means that new managers need to be comfortable with their team asking questions and providing feedback. Show that you value their input by listening and responding to them, but remember that you don’t have to implement every single one.

Some people prefer to “Fake It ‘Til You Make It”, but don’t make this the case for yourself. Pretending to be someone you’re not can prevent you from building strong and genuine relationships needed for effective collaboration.

Lead With Actions

Walking the talk when giving instructions and encouragement to your team establishes credibility and respect for you as their manager. You have to demonstrate the values, behaviors, and standards that you expect from them. If you commit to something, for example, a deadline, make sure to follow through. Consistently delivering on your promises shows reliability and integrity.

Taking responsibility, especially when things go wrong, is a mark of a strong leader. Making mistakes is not inevitable, but you must own up to them and apologize if necessary. But also make sure to have a game plan for resolving it. This will show your team that it’s safe to admit to their mistakes and learn from them, too.

Remember, 57% of employees quit because of a bad boss, so be consistent in your management style. Don’t waver your standards or apply rules differently based on your mood. When your actions consistently reflect your values and expectations, your team will trust that you mean what you say.

Treat Your Team As Humans First

As you lead your new team, take inspiration from managers you enjoy working with. They’re probably those who took the time to get to know you and encouraged you to have a healthy work-life balance by respecting your time beyond the workplace. No one wants to be seen as a robot, so make a conscious effort to understand your team’s personal goals and professional aspirations as well.

Regularly acknowledge and appreciate them for their hard work and contributions. A sincere thank you or public acknowledgment can go a long way in making people feel valued. But also be attentive when they are struggling, whether due to work-related stress or personal challenges. Offer your support by checking in privately and providing flexibility or resources. Let them know they can talk to you without fear or judgment.

At the end of the day, being a leader is more than just giving them a list of tasks to accomplish but actually guiding them toward success. And it’s only when people are genuinely cared for and valued that they are more motivated, engaged, and committed that this can be achieved.

Becoming a successful manager is not about having all the answers from the get-go but about continuously learning, growing, and adapting. Keep in mind that the most effective leaders are those who lead with empathy, integrity, and a genuine desire to see their team succeed.

Embracing these tips will help you navigate the complexities of the role and also create a positive and productive environment for you and your team to thrive. The journey may be challenging, but with the right mindset and approach, it will also be equally rewarding.

Forbes

The sustained rise in the prices of goods and services in Nigeria is driven by a complex interplay of domestic economic challenges, monetary policy decisions, and external factors. The trends identified by manufacturers, agricultural experts, and economic analysts reveal that inflationary pressures are likely to persist, affecting both the productive and service sectors. This analysis will explore the various underlying causes and how they are expected to shape price trends in Nigeria.

1. Monetary Policy and Rising Interest Rates

The continuous increase in the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), now at 27.25%, has had a ripple effect across the Nigerian economy. The Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN) has expressed concerns that higher borrowing costs, which now exceed 35%, are compounding the challenges faced by the manufacturing sector. With the cost of credit rising, manufacturers are forced to either raise prices to cover costs or reduce production capacity, exacerbating supply shortages.

As production costs rise, the prices of manufactured goods inevitably increase, further eroding consumer purchasing power. This cost-push inflation is particularly damaging for a country like Nigeria, where many industries depend on imports for raw materials. As the Naira continues to depreciate, manufacturers pay more for inputs, worsening the inflationary spiral.

2. Depressed Consumer Demand and Inventory Buildup

Despite rising production costs, many manufacturers face the challenge of declining consumer demand due to reduced purchasing power. With inflation soaring, consumers are spending more on essential goods like food and fuel, leaving less disposable income for other goods and services. As a result, manufacturers are accumulating unsold inventory, which reached ₦1.24 trillion in the first half of 2024—a significant increase from ₦869.37 billion at the end of 2023.

This situation is unsustainable for the manufacturing sector, as companies must either continue raising prices to offset losses or cut production, leading to layoffs and potential business closures. The resulting unemployment would further suppress demand, creating a vicious cycle of stagnating economic activity and rising inflation.

3. Food Inflation and Agricultural Challenges

The agricultural sector, a crucial component of Nigeria’s economy, is also grappling with significant challenges that are contributing to rising food prices. Worsening insecurity, particularly in the northern regions, has severely disrupted farming activities, reducing both output and productivity. Armed conflicts and banditry have prevented farmers from accessing their lands, while attacks on rural communities have driven many farmers away from agricultural activities altogether.

Moreover, Nigeria suffers from a lack of adequate storage and processing facilities. According to the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), Nigeria loses up to 50% of its agricultural produce post-harvest due to poor infrastructure, inadequate storage, and inefficient food processing methods. This wastage leads to shortages, driving up the prices of staple foods such as grains, fruits, and vegetables. Even during harvest seasons, when prices typically ease, the lack of proper storage ensures that these gains are short-lived, with prices quickly rebounding after seasonal abundance passes.

The combination of insecurity, high post-harvest losses, and inefficient food distribution systems guarantees that food prices will remain elevated in the near and medium term, putting further pressure on household budgets.

4. The Depreciation of the Naira and Smuggling

One of the most significant factors driving inflation in Nigeria is the persistent depreciation of the Naira, particularly against stronger currencies like the CFA franc in neighboring countries. As the Naira weakens, the price differential between Nigeria and its neighbors increases, creating opportunities for smugglers to move food items and other essential goods out of Nigeria to sell them at higher prices.

This cross-border smuggling exacerbates local shortages, further driving up domestic prices. With the Naira currently trading at around ₦1,700/$ in the parallel market, there is little hope for a near-term recovery. The government’s decision to float the Naira in 2023, while aimed at addressing exchange rate imbalances, has led to increased volatility in the currency market, with speculative activities and weak foreign investment inflows adding to the pressure on the Naira.

Without robust interventions to stabilize the currency, such as increasing foreign reserves or attracting substantial foreign investment, the exchange rate is likely to remain under pressure. This continued depreciation will ensure that imported goods, including food items and raw materials for manufacturing, remain expensive, further fueling inflation.

5. Energy Costs and Petrol Price Increases

Energy prices, particularly petrol, have been a key driver of inflation in Nigeria. The removal of petrol subsidies by the Tinubu administration has led to a sharp increase in fuel prices, with petrol now selling for around ₦1,000 per liter—up from ₦187 per liter when the administration took office. Given that transportation costs account for a significant portion of the cost structure for many goods and services, the impact on inflation has been profound.

Higher fuel prices have not only driven up the cost of transporting goods but also increased the operating costs for small businesses and households that rely on petrol-powered generators due to the country’s unreliable electricity supply. With global oil prices likely to remain high due to geopolitical tensions and the depreciation of the Naira against the U.S. dollar, petrol prices are unlikely to decline soon, ensuring that energy costs will continue to be a major contributor to inflation.

6. Structural Economic Issues and Foreign Exchange Shortages

Nigeria’s heavy dependence on crude oil exports and the chronic underperformance of the oil sector, due in part to oil theft and declining production, have reduced the country’s foreign exchange earnings. This, in turn, limits the ability of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to stabilize the Naira through interventions in the foreign exchange market.

With dwindling foreign reserves and limited inflows from non-oil exports, Nigeria has been unable to meet the foreign currency needs of manufacturers and importers. The resulting scarcity of foreign exchange has led to higher costs for imported goods, from industrial machinery to everyday consumer products. Until Nigeria can diversify its export base and increase foreign exchange earnings, these challenges will persist, keeping the pressure on prices.

7. Inflation Expectations and Wage Demands

As inflation continues to erode purchasing power, there are growing demands for wage increases across various sectors. The federal government, facing pressure from labor unions, has already implemented a wage hike, but these increases are unlikely to keep pace with rising inflation. Wage increases, while necessary to maintain living standards, can also contribute to further inflation if not accompanied by corresponding gains in productivity.

Moreover, as businesses face rising input costs and wage pressures, many are passing these costs onto consumers, further entrenching inflation expectations. Once inflation becomes embedded in the economy, it becomes more difficult to reverse, particularly in an environment of weak economic growth and poor policy coordination.

Conclusion

In the near and medium term, the outlook for Nigeria’s inflationary trends remains bleak. The combination of rising interest rates, agricultural challenges, a depreciating Naira, fuel price hikes, and structural economic weaknesses will continue to drive up the prices of goods and services. Without significant policy interventions to address these issues—such as improving agricultural productivity, stabilizing the Naira, reducing insecurity, and supporting local manufacturing—inflation will remain a persistent challenge, further eroding living standards for millions of Nigerians.

Overview

On October 1, 2024, coinciding with Nigeria's 64th Independence Day, protesters across multiple cities in Nigeria took to the streets as part of the #EndBadGovernance movement. This was a continuation of protests held in August 2024, with demonstrators expressing grievances over economic hardships, rising costs of living, and government policies.

Key Points

1. The protests, also known as "National Day of Survival" or "#FearlessInOctober", occurred in several major cities including Lagos, Abuja, Ibadan, Akure, Osogbo, and Port Harcourt.

2. Main grievances included:

   - High fuel prices following subsidy removal

   - Rising food costs

   - Increased electricity tariffs

   - General economic hardship and inflation

3. Protesters demanded:

   - Reversal of fuel subsidy removal

   - Reduction in food prices

   - Improved governance

   - Release of activists arrested during previous protests

4. Security forces responded with varying levels of force in different locations, including:

   - Use of tear gas in Abuja

   - Arrests of protest leaders in Kano

   - Dispersal of protesters in Rivers State

5. The Nigerian Bar Association (NBA) offered free legal services to protesters facing harassment or unlawful arrest.

Protests by Location

Abuja

- Police fired tear gas at protesters in the Utako market area

- Eagle Square was sealed off by security forces

Lagos

- Peaceful demonstration led by Omoyele Sowore

- Protesters marched from Ikeja to Alausa Secretariat

Ibadan

- Youth-led protest at Mokola roundabout

- Demands included reversal of fuel subsidy removal and reduced living costs

Akure (Ondo State)

- Protesters defied police warnings and marched peacefully

- Commercial drivers and motorcyclists joined the protest

Osogbo (Osun State)

- Protesters marched through major neighborhoods

- Demanded reversal of economic policies

Port Harcourt (Rivers State)

- Police and suspected political thugs dispersed protesters

- Media personnel were prevented from documenting the incident

Kano

- Five protest leaders were allegedly arrested and taken to Abuja

Government and Security Response

- Police in various states issued warnings against protests

- In some areas, security forces monitored protests without intervention

- The National Human Rights Commission (NHRC) warned against rights violations by security agencies

Civil Society Reactions

- The Nigerian Bar Association (NBA) offered free legal services to protesters

- Amnesty International called for the release of detained activists in Kano

- United Action Front of the Civil Society (UAFCS) urged the government to initiate dialogue with protest leaders

Conclusion

The #EndBadGovernance protests 2.0 highlighted ongoing economic challenges and dissatisfaction with government policies in Nigeria. While some protests remained peaceful, others faced security crackdowns. The events underscored the tension between citizens' right to protest and government efforts to maintain public order.

On Tuesday, President Bola Tinubu joined Nigerians in celebrating the country’s 64th Independence Day anniversary — his second since assuming office on May 29, 2023.

The president made several claims while reading his Independence Day speech, stating how his policies and reforms have yielded results since he took over the reign of power.

TheCable checked some of his claims, and here is what we found.

CLAIM ONE: Tinubu said Nigeria attracted foreign direct investments (FDI) worth more than $30 billion in 2023 due to his economic policies.

“The economy is undergoing the necessary reforms and retooling to serve us better and more sustainably,” the president said.

“If we do not correct the fiscal misalignments that led to the current economic downturn, our country will face an uncertain future and the peril of unimaginable consequences.

“Thanks to the reforms, our country attracted foreign direct investments worth more than $30 billion in the last year.”

FDI is the establishment of a company or business in a country by a foreign investor.

VERIFICATION

On February 17, 2024, Doris Uzoka-Anite, minister of industry, trade and investment, said the country obtained about $30 billion in investment commitments from various investors.

Uzoka-Anite said the commitments will be redeemed within five to eight years.

Also, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) usually releases capital importation reports, which include details on foreign direct investment inflows that Nigeria attracts every quarter.

The NBS capital importation report categorises capital inflows into three main types: foreign direct investment (FDI), foreign portfolio investment (FPI), and other investments.

According to data obtained from NBS, between Q2 — when Tinubu’s administration began — and Q1 of 2024, Nigeria attracted a total of $448.95 million in foreign direct investment (FDI).

In the same period, foreign portfolio investments — which involve investments in financial assets such as stocks and bonds — amounted to $2.58 billion.

Additionally, other investments, such as loans, trade credits, and other capital inflows totaled $3.12 billion.

Further analysis by TheCable showed that in Q2 2023, Nigeria recorded $1.03 billion in foreign inflows, which includes FDI, portfolio investments, and other investments.

The figure dropped to $654.65 million in Q3 2023 but rose to $1.09 billion in Q4.

However, by Q1 2024, total capital inflow surged to $3.38 billion.

In total, Nigeria attracted $6.14 billion in foreign inflows between Q2 2023 and Q1 2024.

VERDICT

Based on data from the NBS, Tinubu’s claim that the country attracted more than $30 billion in foreign direct investment in 2023 is incorrect.

According to the minister of industry, trade, and investment, what Nigeria got were investment commitments, which represent pledges or agreements to invest $30 billion within five to eight years, rather than actual foreign direct investments.

CLAIM TWO: Tinubu said his administration inherited a foreign reserve of over $33 billion and has since increased and maintained it at $37 billion.

“We inherited a reserve of over $33 billion 16 months ago. Since then, we have paid back the inherited forex backlog of $7 billion. We have cleared the ways and means debt of over N30 trillion,” he said.

“We have reduced the debt service ratio from 97 percent to 68 percent. Despite all these, we have managed to keep our foreign reserve at $37 billion. We continue to meet all our obligations and pay our bills.”

VERIFICATION

Based on the last data released by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) on May 26, 2023, three days before the president assumed office, the foreign reserves stood at $35.14 billion.

However, the latest figures from the CBN, as of September 27, 2024, showed that the foreign reserves rose to $38.05 billion.

VERDICT

The president’s claim that his administration has increased the foreign reserves is true, based on data from CBN.

CLAIM THREE: Tinubu said his administration has successfully cleared the $7 billion foreign exchange backlog that was inherited when he took office.

“Since then, we have paid back the inherited forex backlog of $7 billion,” the president said.

VERIFICATION

FX backlog refers to the accumulated unmet foreign exchange (FX) demands or obligations that a country has not been able to fulfill.

On February 5, Olayemi Cardoso, CBN governor, said he inherited a $7 billion FX backlog when he took over the apex bank in September 2023.

The backlog indicates that there were outstanding requests from businesses, investors, or individuals for foreign currencies to facilitate international transactions — such as imports, debt payments, or foreign investments — that the CBN had not been able to supply due to a shortage of FX at the time.

On September 26, 2023, the CBN governor announced that the apex bank was working on settling the $7 billion FX backlog liabilities.

On March 20, 2024, Hakama Sidi Ali, director of corporate communications at CBN, said the apex bank has successfully settled all valid outstanding FX obligations.

Two days after, Kingsley Nwokeoma, president of the Association of Foreign Airlines and Representatives in Nigeria (AFARN), called for evidence of payment.

Nwokeoma said the apex bank should provide proof of payment, as they had yet to receive any funds.

However, on June 2, 2024, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) said 98 percent of trapped airlines’ funds in Nigeria had been cleared.

VERDICT

Based on the official statement from the CBN which is responsible for FX payments, and the IATA, representing foreign airlines, the president’s claim is largely correct.

CLAIM FOUR: Tinubu said his administration has cleared the ways and means debt of over N30 trillion.

“We have cleared the ways and means debt of over N30 trillion,” the president said.

VERIFICATION

Ways and means advances refer to a facility provided by the CBN that allows the federal government to borrow money from the apex bank to cover short-term funding needs.

Essentially, it helps the government manage its finances when there is a shortfall in revenue.

On May 23, 2023, the senate approved the securitisation of N22.7 trillion ways and means loans, following a request by former President Muhammadu Buhari on December 28, 2022, to convert the debt into a government bond.

Securitisation is the process of turning assets into interest-bearing securities that can be sold to investors.

Also, on December 30, 2023, the national assembly approved Tinubu’s request for the securitisation of outstanding N7.3 trillion ways and means debt.

While the Debt Management Office (DMO) has not released the document for the securitisation of the N7.3 trillion loan, the details of the N22.7 trillion loan securitised during Buhari’s administration showed that the tenure is 40 years, meaning that the principal and interests are expected to be paid within 40 years.

Additionally, there is a 3-year moratorium on the principal, which means for the first three years, the borrower does not have to make any payments towards the principal amount of the loan.

The document also states that it carries an interest rate of 9 percent per annum, which means that each year, the federal government will pay 9 percent of the remaining loan balance as interest.

VERDICT

Tinubu’s claim that his administration has cleared the N30 trillion ways and means is false, as the DMO document showed that the loan has been securitised to be paid within 40 years, not paid in full as Tinubu asserted.

The Cable

The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited has again failed to begin fuel production at the Port Harcourt refinery in Rivers State.

This is despite the refinery failing to commence operations after six postponements as of August 2024.

Promises made to Nigerians by the Federal Ministry of Petroleum Resources and NNPC about the refinery have continued to hit brick walls.

After the failure of the early August promise, the Chief Financial Officer of the NNPC, Umar Ajiya, said the Port Harcourt refinery would commence operations in September 2024.

Speaking to journalists in August, Ajiya had said petroleum products would be ready for testing before being supplied to the domestic market in September.

As September ended two days ago, the NNPC did not give an update about the refinery.

Our correspondent contacted the NNPC last week for an update about the refinery, but there was no response.

The Chief Corporate Communications Officer of the oil firm, Olufemi Soneye, did not reply to enquiries sent to him on September 22 and 30, 2024.

However, Maire Tecnimont SpA, the contractor overseeing the rehabilitation of the Port Harcourt refinery, said it would provide details on the project’s completion by or before October 2.

The contractor conveyed this through a law firm, Olajide Oyewole LLP, in response to a letter from a Senior Advocate of Nigeria, Femi Falana, who had inquired about the completion timeline for the refinery’s rehabilitation.

In reply to Falana’s request, the law firm stated that its client received his letters dated September 17 and 24, regarding the contract with the NNPC and is considering the inquiries.

“Our client is considering your letters and they intend to get back to you on or before 2 October 2024,” the law firm had said.

Since December 2023, NNPC, which is in charge of all the government refineries, has given Nigerians different dates, assuring them that the refinery would begin the sale of refined products soon.

In July, the Group Chief Executive Officer of the NNPC, Mele Kyari, stated categorically that the refinery would come into operation in early August.

The same Kyari said in 2019 that the NNPC would deliver all the country’s four refineries before the end of former President Muhammadu Buhari’s administration.

While appearing before the Senate in July, Kyari boasted, “I can confirm to you, Mr Chairman, that by the end of the year, this country will be a net exporter of petroleum products.

“Specific to NNPC refineries, we have spoken to a number of your committees, and it is impossible to have the Kaduna refinery come into operation before December, it will get to December, both Warri and Kaduna, but that of Port Harcourt will commence production early August this year.”

However, the promise was not fulfilled in August which was the sixth postponement.

Though the NNPC said it was on course, the refinery has yet to commence operations.

It would be recalled that the 210,000 barrels per day refinery was said to have reached what the NNPC called mechanical completion of rehabilitation work in December. It stated that the facility would start refining 60,000 barrels of crude oil daily after last year’s Christmas break.

Later in January, Kyari said the refinery was being tested and would be ready by the end of January.

During the second month of the year, the Shell Petroleum Development Company of Nigeria Limited completed the supply of 475,000 barrels of crude oil to the facility, raising the expectations of marketers that production was set to commence.

This came a few weeks after the NNPC said in January that it was seeking to engage reputable and credible operations and maintenance companies to run the refinery.

In mid-March, Kyari said the Port Harcourt refinery would commence operations in two weeks, April.

“We are serving this country with honour and dignity. And we will make sure that the promises we make on the rehabilitation of these refineries will take place,” Kyari stated after he appeared before the Senate Ad-hoc Committee investigating the various turnaround maintenance projects of the country’s refineries.

As the April deadline elapsed, independent petroleum marketers said that the facility would begin production by the end of July.

Commenting on this, NNPC’s Chief Corporate Communications Officer, Soneye, said regulatory approvals from international bodies were the only impediment stalling the operational commencement of the refinery.

Some Nigerians have expressed disappointment that the nation’s refineries have remained moribund for years. The country has since depended on imported fuel due to a lack of refining capacity, spending up to N2tn monthly.

The President of the Dangote Group, Aliko Dangote, said $4bn had been spent by the Federal Government in an attempt to revive the nation’s refineries.

The refinery, situated in Nigeria’s oil-rich Niger Delta region, has been in operation since 1965, but later became moribund for several years.

In March 2021, the federal government obtained a $1.5bn loan for the renovation and modernisation of the refinery; a move that was criticised by former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, who advocated the sale of all government refineries.

While reacting to the plan to hand the refinery over to private managers, Atiku tackled former President Muhammadu Buhari and incumbent President Bola Tinubu for failing to heed his advice that the refinery and others owned by the government should be sold to private individuals.

Punch

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) flag carrier Emirates flight landed at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport (MMIA), Lagos on Tuesday.

This is coming two years after the suspension of operation by the airline over several issues including unresolved trapped funds belonging to the airline.

However the flight EK 783 which touched down at the old terminal of the MMIA at exactly 3:32 pm arrived with several empty seats on its Boeing 777-300ER.

The flight resumed for the first time in two years with 105 passengers on the Boeing 777-300er (Extended range) with a capacity to convey 370 to 392 passengers depending on the configuration.

Several passengers who spoke with our correspondent also confirmed that there were many empty seats on the flight.

While the departing passengers were processed at the new terminal, returning passengers arrived via the old terminal of the MMIA due to the existing capacity constraint at the new terminal.

One of the passengers said, “The flight was not full at all but as usual the services were very good. And I think this is understandable being the first flight after many years.”

The return flight EK784 also departed Lagos by 5:29 with about the same number of passengers.

There has been low booking since the airline resumed sale of tickets with travel agents attributing the development to the stringent visa requirements imposed on Nigerians.

A top travel agent who spoke with our correspondent said, “The visa requirements are very stringent and restrictive. We hope that as they reconnect and settle in, they can tweak some of these requirements.”

One of the requirements is for the applicant to have a certain sum of money in his account to cover travel, accommodation, and other expenses.

Daily Trust

Iran says attack on Israel is over as fears grow of wider conflict

Iran said early on Wednesday that its missile attack on Israel was over barring further provocation, while Israel and the U.S. promised to retaliate against Tehran as fears of a wider war intensified.

Washington said it would work with longtime ally Israel to make sure Iran faced "severe consequences" for Tuesday's attack, which Israel said involved more than 180 ballistic missiles.

The United Nations Security Council scheduled a meeting about the Middle East for Wednesday, and the European Union called for an immediate ceasefire.

"Our action is concluded unless the Israeli regime decides to invite further retaliation. In that scenario, our response will be stronger and more powerful," Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said in a post on X early on Wednesday.

Israel renewed its bombardment early on Wednesday of Beirut's southern suburbs, a stronghold of the Iran-backed armed Hezbollah group, with at least a dozen airstrikes against what it said were targets belonging the group.

Large plumes of smoke were seen rising from parts of the suburbs. Israel issued new evacuation orders for the area, which have largely emptied after days of heavy strikes.

IRAN'S BIGGEST ATTACK ON ISRAEL

Iran's attack marked it biggest ever military blow against Israel.

Sirens sounded across the country and explosions rattled Jerusalem and the Jordan River valley as the entire population was told to move into bomb shelters.

No injuries were reported in Israel, but one man was killed in the occupied West Bank, authorities there said.

Iran described the campaign as defensive and solely aimed at Israeli military facilities. Iran's state news agency said three Israeli military bases had been targeted.

Tehran said its assault was a response to Israeli killings of militant leaders and aggression in Lebanon against Hezbollah and in Gaza.

Israel activated air defences against Iran's bombardment and most missiles were intercepted "by Israel and a defensive coalition led by the United States," Israeli Daniel Hagari said in a video on X, adding: "Iran's attack is a severe and dangerous escalation."

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to hit back.

"Iran made a big mistake tonight - and it will pay for it," he said at the outset of an emergency political security cabinet meeting late on Tuesday, according to a statement.

Iran's General Staff of the Armed Forces said in a statement carried by state media that any Israeli response would be met with "vast destruction" of Israeli infrastructure. It also said it would target regional assets of any Israeli ally that got involved.

Fears that Iran and the U.S. could be drawn into a regional war have risen with Israel's growing assault on Lebanon in the past two weeks, including the start of a ground operation there on Monday, and its year-old conflict in the Gaza Strip.

Iran's forces on Tuesday used hypersonic Fattah missiles for the first time, and 90% of its missiles successfully hit their targets in Israel, the Revolutionary Guards said.

Israel's Hagari said central and southern Israel received limited strikes. A video released by the military showed a school in the central city of Gadera heavily damaged by an Iranian missile.

U.S. Navy warships fired about a dozen interceptors against Iranian missiles headed toward Israel, the Pentagon said. Britain said its forces played a part "in attempts to prevent further escalation in the Middle East", without elaborating.

U.S. President Joe Biden expressed full U.S. support for Israel and described Iran's attack as "ineffective." Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate for U.S. president, backed Biden's stance and said the U.S. would not hesitate to defend its interests against Iran.

"We will act. Iran will soon feel the consequences of their actions. The response will be painful," Israel's U.N. Ambassador Danny Danon told reporters.

U.S. DOES NOT URGE RESTRAINT

The White House similarly promised "severe consequences" for Iran and spokesman Jake Sullivan told a Washington briefing the U.S. would "work with Israel to make that the case."

Sullivan did not specify what those consequences might be, but he stopped short of urging restraint by Israel as the U.S. did in April when Iran carried out a drone and missile attack on Israel. The Pentagon said Tuesday's airstrikes by Iran were about twice the size of April's assault.

U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres condemned what he called "escalation after escalation", saying: "This must stop. We absolutely need a ceasefire."

French President Emmanuel Macron said in a statement that he strongly condemns Iran's new attacks on Israel, adding that in a sign of its commitment to Israel's security it mobilised its military resources in the Middle East on Wednesday.

Macron reiterated France's demand that Hezbollah cease its terrorist actions against Israel and its population, but also wished for Lebanon's sovereignty and territorial integrity to be reinstated in strict compliance with a United Nations Security Council resolution.

EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell also called for an immediate regional ceasefire. "The dangerous cycle of attacks and retaliation risks ... spiralling out of control," he posted on X.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer spoke with the leaders of Germany and France, and they agreed on a need for restraint from all sides, Downing Street said.

Nearly 1,900 people have been killed and more than 9,000 wounded in Lebanon in almost a year of cross-border fighting, most in the past two weeks, according to Lebanese government statistics on Tuesday.

Reuters

WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Russian troops reach centre of Ukrainian bastion Vuhledar

Russian troops have reached the centre of Vuhledar, a bastion on strategic high ground in eastern Ukraine's industrial Donbas region that had resisted Russian assaults since Moscow's full-scale invasion, a regional Ukrainian official said on Tuesday.

Footage posted to social media showed Russian soldiers waving a flag from atop a bombed-out multi-storey building and unfurling another flag on a metal spire on a roof. Reuters determined the footage matched street patterns of Vuhledar.

Other images showed smoke rising over the ruins of the once small mining town, now a deserted and devastated battlefield where Ukrainian units had held off previous armoured Russian assaults through 2-1/2 years of war.

"The enemy is already nearly in the centre of the city," Vadym Filashkin, governor of the Donetsk region that makes up part of the broader Donbas historical area, told Ukrainian TV, describing the situation as very difficult.

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and the Ukrainian military did not comment on Tuesday on the situation in Vuhledar. It was unclear whether Russian forces controlled the whole town.

"Vuhledar... the city we all fought for, the city where soldiers from different units laid down their lives, the city where I met the war with a weapon in hand," Stanislav Buniatov, a Ukrainian military blogger and a volunteer soldier said on the Telegram messaging app.

Combat footage by the popular war blog DeepState showed Russian forces throughout Vuhledar. Ukraine's public broadcaster Suspilne quoted soldiers fighting there as saying they had not received an order to leave.

Kremlin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Monday that President Vladimir Putin "regularly receives direct information from the military" including on Vuhledar, but there was no official comment from Moscow that the town was taken.

Russian military bloggers, including a group of military analysts who ran the prominent Rybar Telegram channel, touted the capture of the city, which could speed up the advance of Russian forces in Donbas.

Vuhledar has strategic significance because of its high ground and its location near the junction of the two main fronts, in eastern and southern Ukraine. Russian forces reached the outskirts last week and have since intensified their push.

Earlier, Andriy Nazarenko, commander of a drone battalion of the 72nd Mechanized Brigade, said they were outgunned and outmanned in Vuhledar.

"The situation in Vuhledar is very difficult, it is the hardest because assaults have been going on for more than six months and the enemy is constantly rotating its ranks with fresh, trained forces," Nazarenko told Reuters.

Speaking from an undisclosed location during a Zoom interview, Nazarenko said his unit was doing everything possible to maintain "a window" for the infantry to be able to retreat from the town.

RUSSIA'S FAST ADVANCE

Since August, Moscow's troops have advanced at their fastest rate for more than two years in eastern Ukraine, despite Ukrainian forces mounting a surprise incursion into Russia's Kursk region.

Oleksandr Kovalenko, a Ukrainian military analyst, said that about 2,000 to 3,000 Russian troops were in the town, attacking from three different directions.

"We will not be able to hold on in Vuhledar in these conditions," Kovalenko told Reuters, saying the decision to retreat from Vuhledar should be taken quickly.

Full control over Vuhledar would help Moscow's troops to improve their logistics by using railways more actively, easing their further advance in the region and giving them positions on heights from which to fire artillery.

Filashkin, urging people to leave, said that about 350,000 people remained in government-held parts of the region, down from about 1.9 million before the war. Only 107 civilians remained in Vuhledar, which had a pre-war population of about 14,000, he said.

The Donetsk region, where Russian proxy forces launched a revolt in 2014, is one of four Ukrainian provinces that Moscow claimed to have annexed in late 2022. Moscow says capturing the rest of the province is one of its principal war aims.

Ukraine drove back Russian forces from the outskirts of Kyiv and recaptured territory in a counter-offensive in 2022. But another Ukrainian counter-offensive last year was a failure and Russian forces have mostly had the battlefield initiative since.

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

Russian troops advance: situation in Kursk Region

Ukraine lost more than 340 servicemen in the Kursk Region over the day, the Russian Defense Ministry said.

In total, the enemy lost more than 19,250 people during the fighting.

Russian troops advanced and consolidated at two sites in the Kursk Region, clearing them of Ukrainian servicemen, Deputy Chief of the Russian Armed Forces’ Main Military-Political Department, Akhmat Special Forces Commander Major General Apty Alaudinov said.

TASS has gathered the key news about the unfolding situation.

Operation to neutralize Ukrainian forces

- The Russian military repelled two enemy counterattacks towards Plekhovo.

- It also repelled two Ukrainian attempts to break through the border towards Novy Put.

- Units of the battlegroup North continued offensive operations and defeated Ukrainian formations near Lyubimovka, Novy Put, Nikolayevo-Daryino and Plekhovo.

- The Russian military hit concentrations of enemy manpower and hardware near Bogdanovka, Guyevo, Daryino, Zeleny Shlyakh, Lyubimovka, Malaya Loknya, Martynovka, Mirny, Novy Put, Orlovka, Plekhovo, Pravda, Russkoe Porechnoye, Tolsty Lug, Cherkasskaya Konopelka, Cherkasskoe Porechnoye and Yuzhny in the Kursk Region.

- Russian jets struck Ukrainian reserves in the Sumy Region.

Ukraine’s losses

- Over the day, the enemy lost more than 340 people, five armored vehicles, including two tanks and three armored fighting vehicles, as well as five artillery pieces and seven vehicles. Two Ukrainian servicemen surrendered.

- Since the beginning of hostilities in Russia’s borderline region, Ukraine’s losses have amounted to more than 19,250 servicemen, 135 tanks, 65 infantry fighting vehicles, 98 armored personnel carriers, 859 armored combat vehicles, 569 vehicles, 155 artillery pieces, 33 multiple rocket launchers, including eight HIMARS and six US-made MLRS, nine anti-aircraft missile launchers, five transport and loading vehicles, 38 radar stations, nine counter-battery radars, three air defense radars, 19 pieces of engineering and other equipment, including 11 engineering demolition vehicles, one UR-77 demining unit, and two armored recovery vehicles.

Alaudinov's statements

- Russian troops advanced and consolidated at two sites in the Kursk Region, clearing them of Ukrainian servicemen, Deputy Chief of the Russian Armed Forces’ Main Military-Political Department, Akhmat Special Forces Commander Major General Apty Alaudinov said.

UN OHCHR report

- Ukraine's attack on the Kursk Region was included in the latest Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights’ report. However, the Office refrained from any assessment of the actions of the Ukrainian authorities and military, thus making just a brief summary of the facts.

Reuters/Tass

This fall is the first in nearly 20 years that I am not returning to the classroom. For most of my career, I taught writing, literature, and language, primarily to university students. I quit, in large part, because of large language models (LLMs) like ChatGPT.

Virtually all experienced scholars know that writing, as historian Lynn Hunthas argued, “is “not the transcription of thoughts already consciously present in [the writer’s] mind.” Rather, writing is a process closely tied to thinking. In graduate school, I spent months trying to fit pieces of my dissertation together in my mind and eventually found I could solve the puzzle only through writing. Writing is hard work. It is sometimes frightening. With the easy temptation of AI, many—possibly most—of my students were no longer willing to push through discomfort.

In my most recent job, I taught academic writing to doctoral students at a technical college. My graduate students, many of whom were computer scientists, understood the mechanisms of generative AI better than I do. They recognized LLMs as unreliable research tools that hallucinate and invent citations. They acknowledged the environmental impact and ethical problemsof the technology. They knew that models are trained on existing data and therefore cannot produce novel research. However, that knowledge did not stop my students from relying heavily on generative AI. Several students admitted to drafting their research in note form and asking ChatGPT to write their articles.

As an experienced teacher, I am familiar with pedagogical best practices. I scaffoldedassignments. I researched ways to incorporate generative AI in my lesson plans, and I designed activities to draw attention to its limitations. I reminded students that ChatGPT may alter the meaning of a text when prompted to revise, that it can yield biased and inaccurate information, that it does not generate stylistically strong writing and, for those grade-oriented students, that it does not result in A-level work. It did not matter. The students still used it.

In one activity, my students drafted a paragraph in class, fed their work to ChatGPT with a revision prompt, and then compared the output with their original writing. However, these types of comparative analyses failed because most of my students were not developed enough as writers to analyze the subtleties of meaning or evaluate style. “It makes my writing look fancy,” one PhD student protested when I pointed to weaknesses in AI-revised text.

My students also relied heavily on AI-powered paraphrasing tools such as Quillbot. Paraphrasing well, like drafting original research, is a process of deepening understanding. Recent high-profile examples of “duplicative language” are a reminder that paraphrasing is hard work. It is not surprising, then, that many students are tempted by AI-powered paraphrasing tools. These technologies, however, often result in inconsistent writing style, do not always help students avoid plagiarism, and allow the writer to gloss over understanding. Online paraphrasing tools are useful only when students have already developed a deep knowledge of the craft of writing.

Students who outsource their writing to AI lose an opportunity to think more deeply about their research. In a recent article on art and generative AI, author Ted Chiang put it this way: “Using ChatGPT to complete assignments is like bringing a forklift into the weight room; you will never improve your cognitive fitness that way.” Chiang also notes that the hundreds of small choices we make as writers are just as important as the initial conception. Chiang is a writer of fiction, but the logic applies equally to scholarly writing. Decisions regarding syntax, vocabulary, and other elements of style imbue a text with meaning nearly as much as the underlying research.

Generative AI is, in some ways, a democratizing tool. Many of my students were non-native speakers of English. Their writing frequently contained grammatical errors. Generative AI is effective at correcting grammar. However, the technology often changes vocabulary and alters meaning even when the only prompt is “fix the grammar.” My students lacked the skills to identify and correct subtle shifts in meaning. I could not convince them of the need for stylistic consistency or the need to develop voices as research writers.

The problem was not recognizing AI-generated or AI-revised text. At the start of every semester, I had students write in class. With that baseline sample as a point of comparison, it was easy for me distinguish between my students’ writing and text generated by ChatGPT. I am also familiar with AI detectors, which purport to indicate whether something has been generated by AI. These detectors, however, are faulty. AI-assisted writing is easy to identify but hard to prove.

As a result, I found myself spending many hours grading writing that I knew was generated by AI. I noted where arguments were unsound. I pointed to weaknesses such as stylistic quirks that I knew to be common to ChatGPT (I noticed a sudden surge of phrases such as “delves into”).  That is, I found myself spending more time giving feedback to AI than to my students.

So I quit.

The best educators will adapt to AI. In some ways, the changes will be positive. Teachers must move away from mechanical activities or assigning simple summaries. They will find ways to encourage students to think critically and learn that writing is a way of generating ideas, revealing contradictions, and clarifying methodologies.

However, those lessons require that students be willing to sit with the temporary discomfort of not knowing. Students must learn to move forward with faith in their own cognitive abilities as they write and revise their way into clarity. With few exceptions, my students were not willing to enter those uncomfortable spaces or remain there long enough to discover the revelatory power of writing.

Time

The surge in petrol prices in Nigeria, rising from N187 per litre when President Bola Tinubu took office last year to N1,000 per litre, reflects a complex blend of both domestic and international economic factors. The reasons why petrol prices are unlikely to decline soon, as outlined in the analysis below, offer a significant understanding of the issue.

Key Reasons Why Petrol Prices Will Remain High:

1. Dollar Denominated Crude Sales and Depreciating Naira

The sale of crude oil, the primary feedstock for refineries, is priced in U.S. dollars. While the federal government has proposed selling crude to local refineries in the local currency, Naira, starting from October 2024, the pricing benchmark will still remain in U.S. dollars. This implies that even when sold in Naira, the exchange rate between the Naira and the dollar will determine the actual cost.

With the Naira's rapid depreciation—now at around N1,700 to $1—and no clear signs of recovery, the cost of crude oil in local currency terms will continue to rise. The weakening currency effectively means higher costs for refined petrol. This exchange rate pressure, driven by a lack of robust foreign reserves, weak investor confidence, and structural imbalances in Nigeria’s economy, ensures that petrol prices will remain high, or potentially rise further.

2. Global Oil Price Dynamics

International crude oil prices are sensitive to geopolitical tensions, such as the current conflicts in the Middle East, and changes in global demand. Historically, tensions in oil-producing regions drive prices upward, and the Middle East remains a major player in global oil supply. With no immediate resolution to these conflicts in sight, oil prices are expected to continue climbing. The combination of high international oil prices and a depreciating Naira will exacerbate the situation, making it difficult for Nigeria to reduce petrol prices.

3. Government's Economic Policy and Subsidy Removal

The Tinubu administration has taken a clear stance against subsidies on petrol, aligning with the IMF and World Bank’s advocacy for market-based pricing mechanisms. The government’s removal of subsidies has led to a significant price increase. As the government remains committed to the Bretton Woods Institutions’ policies, the chances of reintroducing subsidies are slim, further cementing the reality of sustained high petrol prices.

4. High Electricity Costs and Alternative Energy Challenges

The high cost of electricity in Nigeria forces many households, small businesses, and even industries to rely on petrol-powered generators. With no affordable and reliable alternatives, demand for petrol remains robust. The slow adoption of Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) as an alternative for vehicles, coupled with the prohibitive cost of electric vehicles (EVs), ensures that petrol remains the primary energy source for both mobility and power generation. Until there is significant investment in and adoption of alternative energy sources, demand for petrol will remain high, further pushing prices up.

5. Refinery Challenges and Import Dependency

Nigeria’s refineries have been largely non-operational, and despite ongoing efforts to rehabilitate them, the timeline for local refining to meet domestic demand remains uncertain. Until local refining capacity is significantly expanded, Nigeria will remain dependent on imported refined products, which are subject to the volatility of international oil markets and exchange rates. Even the much-hyped Dangote Refinery may take time to stabilize its output to meet domestic demand. This heavy reliance on imports leaves Nigeria vulnerable to global price fluctuations, ensuring that petrol prices will remain high.

6. Inflationary Pressures

The general inflation rate in Nigeria, currently at historic highs, also feeds into higher petrol prices. Rising costs across sectors, from logistics to labour, affect the entire supply chain of petrol distribution. Inflation erodes purchasing power and adds to the cost of production, making it more expensive for importers and distributors to bring fuel to the market.

7. Limited Policy Interventions

There is a clear lack of effective policy interventions to manage the growing energy crisis. While the government has made promises to boost local refining capacity and encourage alternative energy sources, the implementation of these policies is slow. Without significant regulatory or infrastructural changes, the systemic issues driving petrol price increases will persist. Moreover, the financial constraints faced by the government limit its ability to intervene meaningfully in the short term.

Implications for the Nigerian Economy and Living Standards

1. Increased Cost of Living

Rising petrol prices have direct and far-reaching impacts on the cost of living. Transportation costs, which are a significant component of everyday expenses for many Nigerians, are closely tied to fuel prices. With the rise in petrol prices, transportation fares have surged, affecting not only individuals but also the cost of goods and services. The increase in logistics costs means higher prices for food, consumer goods, and essential services, contributing to overall inflation and reducing disposable incomes.

2. Stagflation Concerns

The combination of high inflation and stagnating economic growth—referred to as stagflation—is a serious concern. As petrol prices rise, so too does inflation, while economic growth remains tepid due to structural issues such as poor infrastructure, high unemployment, and weak industrial output. This could lead to a scenario where economic activity slows while prices continue to rise, creating a difficult environment for businesses and households.

3. Strain on Small Businesses

Small businesses, which often rely on petrol-powered generators due to unreliable electricity supply, are hit hard by rising fuel costs. Many small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) already operate on thin margins, and the added burden of higher fuel prices may lead more to closures or reduced operations. This could result in higher unemployment and reduced economic output, further exacerbating poverty levels in the country.

4. Worsening Poverty and Social Unrest

Nigeria's poverty levels are already among the highest in the world, and rising petrol prices are likely to push more people into poverty. As living costs increase and real incomes stagnate, more Nigerians will struggle to afford basic necessities. This economic pressure could also heighten social unrest, as people become increasingly frustrated with their deteriorating standard of living. The government will need to address this issue with social safety nets and targeted interventions to avoid widespread discontent.

5. Pressure on Government Revenues

While the removal of subsidies has freed up some government resources, rising petrol prices can also place additional pressure on public finances. If inflation and economic stagnation continue, tax revenues may fall, and the government may face pressure to increase social spending to mitigate the impact on vulnerable populations. This creates a difficult balancing act for policymakers, as they must find ways to stimulate growth while managing rising costs and social discontent.

Conclusion

The likelihood of petrol prices falling in the near future is slim due to a combination of domestic economic challenges and global oil market dynamics. The implications of persistently high petrol prices are profound for the Nigerian economy and its citizens. Rising costs of living, inflationary pressures, and a lack of viable alternatives to petrol create a grim outlook for economic recovery and poverty alleviation in the short term.