Since President Bola Tinubu assumed office on May 29, 2023, Nigeria - according to Nigeria Security Report by Beacon Consulting, a firm that specialises in security risk management - has experienced a dramatic surge in violence. In just over a year, 13,346 people have been killed and 9,207 abducted across 667 local government areas, with deaths resulting from terrorism, banditry, farmer-herder clashes, and other forms of violence. This sharp rise in fatalities and kidnappings underscores the country’s deteriorating security situation and provides a grim context for understanding the entrenched socioeconomic and political crises that fuel this unrest.
The worsening insecurity in Nigeria is a direct consequence of deep-rooted issues, and several core factors contribute to the persistence and escalation of violence, making it unlikely to abate soon.
1. Deep-rooted Socioeconomic Disparities
With 133 million Nigerians living in multidimensional poverty and over 50 million out-of-school children, Nigeria's socioeconomic landscape is ripe for violent conflict. Poverty creates conditions where citizens, especially young people, are easily recruited into criminal and insurgent groups. Governor Babagana Zulum of Borno State highlighted how Boko Haram recruits spies for as little as N5,000, showing how economic desperation pushes people toward violence. The lack of opportunities in regions like the North-East and North-West drives many into criminal activities like banditry and terrorism.
2. Perceived Marginalization and Regional Grievances
The rise in violence in regions such as the South-East and South-South stems from long-standing grievances of marginalization. The South-South resents the extraction of its oil resources to benefit other regions, while the South-East agitates over political exclusion. These perceptions of injustice foster militancy and separatism, with local communities providing support for insurgents. As long as these grievances remain unaddressed, the violence in these regions will likely continue.
3. Farmer-Herder Conflicts
In the North-Central and North-West, clashes over farmlands between farmers and herders, exacerbated by climate change and resource scarcity, have intensified. These conflicts, often framed in ethnic and religious terms, are driven by competition over increasingly scarce arable land. The absence of effective conflict resolution mechanisms leads to escalations, resulting in retaliatory violence, banditry, and mass displacement.
4. Weak Security Infrastructure and Personnel Shortage
As noted by Army Chief Taoreed Lagbaja, Nigeria's security forces are insufficiently staffed and equipped to manage the country's security crisis. With only 2 million security personnel tasked with protecting over 200 million people, and 90% of military equipment imported, the security apparatus is stretched thin. The inadequate funding and reliance on external defense imports cripple the military’s ability to effectively combat insurgencies, even as insurgents adapt and shift their operations to new areas. This security vacuum allows violence to persist and spread.
5. Economic Hardship and Materialism
In the South-West, the combination of economic hardship and extreme materialism fuels criminality, including ritual killings and kidnappings. With high levels of poverty and wealth inequality, many are driven into crime as a means of survival or quick wealth acquisition. This materialism, alongside shrinking economic opportunities, creates a volatile environment in which violent crime thrives.
6. Cross-border Infiltration and Weak Border Control
Nigeria’s porous borders, particularly in the North-East and North-West, allow foreign insurgents and criminal elements to infiltrate the country. The lack of effective border security enables the smuggling of arms and the spread of extremist ideologies. As security experts have pointed out, better control of these borders is essential to prevent external destabilization of local communities.
7. Corruption and Governance Issues
Corruption within Nigeria’s security and governance structures continues to undermine efforts to tackle insecurity. Misappropriation of funds, lack of accountability, and the absence of political will to address critical reforms enable insurgents and criminals to exploit weaknesses in the state. Additionally, unresolved issues related to political exclusion and resource control fuel regional discontent and lawlessness.
8. Child Poverty and Vulnerability
With 90% of children in the North-East and North-West living in poverty, these regions are facing a generational crisis. Children deprived of basic services such as education and healthcare are easily exploited by criminal and insurgent groups. The Almajiri system, in particular, has become a ready recruitment pool for extremists, as vulnerable children are left without proper social or educational structures to integrate them into society. Addressing child poverty is critical to breaking this cycle of violence.
Outlook: Why Insecurity Will Persist
The staggering death tolls and abduction numbers in 2023 and 2024 — 13,346 killed and 9,207 kidnapped — reflect the deepening security crisis in Nigeria. Without addressing the root causes of insecurity, such as poverty, political exclusion, economic deprivation, and governance failures, violence will continue to rise. Military operations alone, while necessary, are insufficient. The government at all levels must invest in social, economic, and political reforms that tackle these underlying issues if it hopes to stem the tide of insecurity. Until such reforms are carefully designed and implemented, the prospects for lasting peace remain grim.
