Since 1999, there is hardly any Nigerian president who has not said—or of whom has not been said—that he is no magician. So when the wife of the president, Mrs Remi Tinubu, made the same statement regarding her husband, it was déjà vu. Here we go again! Nigerian leaders gallantly fight political battles to get political power, only for them to be close enough to observe the scale of responsibilities involved and instantly lose their will to perform. When they say they have no magic, they are frontloading excuses for a governance record that will not do more than offer a few additive gains that might hopefully trickle down a long food chain. They create an alibi to distance them from an impending administrative crime scene.

Unfortunately, precisely what they say they are not—transformational leadership—is what Nigeria needs.

Former President Olusegun Obasanjo started out in power yelling to the world that the country he had been elected to rule had been vandalised by his predecessors and he would rebuild from ground zero. His various anti-corruption initiatives—which set the tone for the showy way Nigeria pursues corruption allegations today—were a drive to reform a polity that had been degraded by military rulers. During his 2003 swearing-in, Obasanjo said, “Four years ago, we had no illusion that we will put right in a few years the destruction of two decades. We did not possess a magic wand with which to achieve instant transformation.” His successor initiated a series of probe to investigate the alleged financial mismanagement that racked up while Obasanjo was in office. So much for repairing what had been damaged.

Shortly after Goodluck Jonathan became president in 2011, he too would make a similar self-disavowal. At an interdenominational service preceding Nigeria’s 51st anniversary, he announced he was not a magician to make the nation’s wishes come true, but God would use him all the same. What made his attenuation of leadership expectations even more ironical was that he was supposedly running a “transformation agenda.” His supporters picked up the refrain about his not being a magician. They would spend substantial time reminding us how thoroughly despoiled the country had been before their man became president, and that it would take him a significant amount of time to achieve meaningful progress. Like his predecessor(s), he too never fully rose to the occasion history had thrust upon him.

Former President Muhammadu Buhari had hardly been elected before he started extricating himself from responsibility. Like the previous presidents who told us what they were not—and never settled on what they were—Buhari was quick to tell us that his “old age” would limit his performance. While age and health impacted Buhari, they were not the primary causes of his disappointing rule. He was both apathetic to offer distinguishing leadership and also lacking in fellow feeling. At the height of collective suffering, at a specific point in our history when people starved to the extent that a man exchanged his child for food, Buhari’s spokesperson, Femi Adesina, went on a radio station to preach patience. He said, “It (governance) is not a magic wand that can be waved, and everything happens. It is a process, and a painstaking one that something good would come out from.” For all their promises that if we believed and waited, we would eventually see “the good of the land,” what came out of it?

Exactly a year ago on AIT, the same Mrs Tinubu who said her husband was no magician also said the same of Buhari. He was no magician, she said, but Buhari had laid a good foundation for her husband to thrive if he became the president. For some funny reason, these leaders—their spokespersons and partisan supporters—tend to fall back on the language of magic to disenchant themselves, to rid the public of any illusion of any potential radical change their administration portends, and to opt for mediocre leadership that adds a few gains here and there but leaves the status quo intact.

Maybe “Tinubu is no magician” is the excuse that will replace “16 years of PDP” that sustained them since 2015 but is now shorn of any charisma. I know some people might want to argue that these leaders are being careful not to raise expectations, and that incremental gains count for something too. Well, understandable, but what we are looking at here are leaders prefacing their own administration with self-defeating rhetoric, setting the bar low—and lower—for themselves, and still failing.

When a Nigerian leader says, “I am not a magician,” it is a shorthand for saying they have neither a clue nor an overriding vision. The best they can do is build a highway here, inaugurate a secretariat there, pay salaries and pensions, show up to give worn and uninspiring speeches on special occasions, dutifully represent the country internationally, and just mark time until it is either time to either re-contest or go home. When a leader says they have no magic, they mean they are mediocre who did not know the scale of what they signed up for and are now intimidated by the reality of what their job entails.

Looking at Nigeria today—and perhaps the whole of Africa—you will realise that what they say they are not is exactly what we need: leaders who can perform magic. When a society is as low as we are on every ground of human development indices, we first need transformational leadership that can enforce radical changes before gradually settling for incremental gains to sustain growth and development. Things are so bad, so degraded in this country, that mere incremental gains will only scratch the surface of our problems. Government after government, we get treated to the same story of leaders admitting they lack transformational magic. The best they ever do is micromanage to add small gains to the little they found on the ground. While incremental gains are still gains, what plays out in Nigeria are mere additions not calculated to be generative and therefore roll back quickly when they encounter slight stressors.

We need leaders capable of transformation, not the ones who wring their hands while moaning about the dire situation they inherited. Finding one is no mean task. Such a leader must have intelligence and strength—physical and moral—to pull off the feat. We are talking about a leader who is convinced that our time has come to stop wandering in the wilderness and start to live as humans, not another talker who will tell us to “suffer now and enjoy later” as if we have not heard that to death. Bola Tinubu’s Independence Day speech was full of such enjoinment to endure as that is not the story of our Nigerian lives. He said, “We must endure this trying moment…reform may be painful, but it is what greatness and the future require…. There is no joy in seeing the people of this nation shoulder burdens that should have been shed years ago. I wish today’s difficulties did not exist. But we must endure if we are to reach the good side of our future.”

How often must we listen to this corny talk of suffer-now-enjoy-later? By now, we should all be tired of leaders who admit they have no transformational magic inside their bellies. They are not what we need. Our situation urgently requires leaders who can think deeply, dream of greatness, and act decisively. If one gets to Aso Rock and finds they are a misfit, they need not waste our time and theirs telling us what they lack. They should return home and we will send another representative who knows what they are doing.

 

Punch

You may have encountered some army official, who usually brags about their life, how punctual and disciplined they are, and how they maintain the equilibrium of their life. Discipline is one of the keys to success, but it’s harder to adapt. Discipline is the ability to control one’s behavior and actions in order to achieve any goal. People who live their lives with discipline have more chances to be successful than others. People with lazy and inconsistent in nature are always suffer when it comes to hard work. Discipline helps in fields school, work, office, and even in personal relationships. There are so many examples of daily life where one behaves in discipline like the student who watches Netflix a lot and also scores in academics.

The Role Of Goal Setting In Self-Discipline

There are two types of discipline: Self-discipline and external discipline. Self-discipline is the ability to control one’s own behavior and emotions. In addition, this skill can be developed through practice. The way to develop self-discipline is by setting clear and realistic goals and breaking the goal into steps or levels. In addition, other than this, External discipline exists. It is basically using external things to make anyone change their habits or behavior. External things can include rewards, praise, and punishment. One may fear punishment and try to behave or act in a disciplined way. Teachers and parents to develop skills in the personality of child mainly use it. This article will cover the psychology of discipline as in why an individual wants to become a disciplined person, how an individual can become a disciplined person and what are the tips for embracing discipline in one’s life.

When you see a well-maintained and disciplined person, you might think about how this person can be disciplined and what factors make them disciplined.

So, the psychology of disciplined persons works very differently, they have some positive qualities like:

1) Self-control:

Disciplined individuals have a good capacity for self-control. They resist themselves to skip work to get delayed, they work to control their temptations and urges they work on their long-term goals and achieve them level by level which makes it easier for them to gain self-confidence.

2) Goal Orientation:

Disciplined individuals are seen as very goal-oriented. They have clear, unidirectional, and well-focused goals and they also have enough attention power to work on those goals perfectly. This goal orientation helps them to stay focused and motivated.

3) Delayed gratification:

They show interest in long-term goals, but in a stepwise manner, which means they forgo short-term rewards in order to attain long-term benefits. They are often useful to work on the drawbacks at the initial level and hence improve the outcome.

4) Willpower:

Disciplined individuals often have willower as their strength. They have enough will to start afresh and gather all the mental strength to start any challenging task easily.

5) Self-awareness:

Disciplined people are often self-aware about their strengths and weaknesses and this allows them to work on themselves effectively. This self-awareness helps them to deal with their drawback and also helps them to make adjustments according to that.

Now, the question arises, how can an individual become a disciplined person? Following are some tips for including discipline as one of the skills in your personality or life.

1) Set clear goals:

If you have a zeal to achieve success then you should have clear and realistic goals. Get to know yourself what you want to do with your goal. Why do you want to achieve it? It is psychologically proven that if an individual has a clue what they want to do with their life or what their goal is, they are more likely to stay focused and motivated.

2) Break down your goal into smaller steps:

Breaking down goals into smaller steps would make it easier for you to understand and manage the work. And with achieving each
small step you will get self-motivation to achieve another step. And these little motivations will help you to stay on track.

3) Create a plan:

Create a plan in which you have prepared what task you have to do in what period of time. Give yourself a deadline and work according to the plan. Your consistency is the key.

4) Reward yourself:

Rewarding yourself gives motivation, reward yourself whenever you achieve any bit, maintain consistency, etc.
Discipline is not a fixed trait and no one is naturally born with this. This is initially guided by parents and teachers, but by learning the psychology behind this one can also develop and strengthen the skill of discipline easily.

 

Psychologs

Peter Obi, presidential candidate of the Labour Party (LP) in the last elections, says questions on the identity of President Bola Tinubu have further worsened Nigeria’s battered reputation in the international community.

Recently, Atiku Abubakar, presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in the last elections, subpoenaed the Chicago State University (CSU) to release Tinubu’s academic records for use in the Nigerian Supreme Court.

Abubakar is challenging the victory of Tinubu in the February 25 election and the affirmation of Tinubu by the petition tribunal as the winner of the poll.

He had argued that there were discrepancies in the certificate Tinubu submitted to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) which should have rendered him ineligible to contest the election.

Abubakar addressed a press conference last week to say he would not stop asking questions about Tinubu’s academic records until the supreme court rules against him.

Addressing a press briefing of his own on Wednesday, Obi, who polled third in the presidential contest and who is also challenging the outcome of the vote at the apex court, said the controversy over Tinubu’s academic records has made foreigners to start profiling Nigerians as “fraudsters, certificate forgers or identity thieves”.

Obi said Tinubu owes the nation the simple obligation of reintroducing himself to the world. 

“The entire Chicago University matter as well as Chief Bola Tinubu’s many other lingering identity question marks has further worsened Nigeria’s less-than-glorious image internationally,” he said. 

“Uninformed outsiders now see every Nigerian as a fraudster, certificate forger or identity thief. The controversy is unnecessary.

“The implicit global embarrassment could have been avoided. In my opinion, Bola Tinubu should have saved the nation and himself from this protracted embarrassment and undue anxiety. 

“He should let the world know his name, his nationality, his place of birth, his parentage, the primary and secondary schools he attended with dates as well as the actual universities he attended and certificates obtained.

“He should indicate clearly where and when he did his national youth service.

“In addition, if at any time he had had a change of name, he should state so clearly. That in itself is no crime.

“It does not require an affidavit, prolonged court process, spokespersons, agents or surrogates. The task is only one which Bola Tinubu himself through a direct personal statement can perform.

“With his present capacity as a leader of a nation of over 200 million Nigerians, his true identity is a matter of grave national and international interest.

“The people deserve to know with certainty the true identity of their leader and this overrides whatever right he may have to personal privacy.”

 

The Cable

On 9/11, I was 12 years old and in middle school three blocks away from the World Trade Center, separated only by a highway and a few sidewalks.

I remember when the bomb squad burst through the doors of the classroom, along with droves of hysterical parents crying and screaming.

Outside the school building, the acrid smell instantly stung our eyes and our nostrils, and the buildings vomited paper and people. The jam-packed crowds were almost impossible to move through, but we had one objective: Get home to the East side, to our neighborhood, which was also just three blocks away from the World Trade Center, on the other side of town.

Soon, we were running from a giant cloud of smoke and debris that we weretold not to look at.

“Just cover your faces, don’t look back, and run!” The scene for the next hour, as we tried every possible way to get into our own neighborhood, was the stuff that nightmares are made of. People covered in blood and debris, piercing, blood-curdling screams, loud cries, and low moans. I was covered in debris myself and kept forgetting to pull my shirt over my face to protect it. We spent an hour navigating the horror, trying to get home, normally a 10-minute walk from school, but police blocked every possible route

Once we finally made it back to our apartment, we found that our neighborhood had become a war zone.

The next years of my life were spent coming of age with undiagnosedthen misdiagnosed and incorrectly medicated dozens of timessymptoms of post-traumatic stress disorder that turned my teenage years into a living nightmare.

At 18, when I felt ready to take my own life, I reached out for help one last time, from one last therapist. That email saved my life, and I went on to spend years recovering through various forms of therapy, programs, and support.

Fast forward ten years, and I’ve come to be able to share what I’ve learned and what I know to be truenot just for me, but for many people.

When you go through something traumatic, it tends to color everything else you experience through a filter of darkness, fear. You start to unconsciously see the danger and “badness” in the world. Part of my recovery was learning to see the good with the bad because the truth is the world is pretty horrific at times, but it can also be very beautiful and kind.

It’s pretty easy to see what’s wrong with a situation, but it takes effort to see what’s right. These tools have been invaluable to me in that effort. This powerful story will convince you to stop saying, “Let me know if you need anything” to someone who has just gone through a tragedy.

Knowing that for almost all bad news you see, there is good news that you don’t see.

When the news features a raging flood wreaking havoc on the city, what they don’t feature is the people who rally together as volunteers to help rescue people’s pets and raise money to feed and board them. Communities band together and volunteers fly into action because people really do care about and try to take care of each other.

Remembering that there are always people who are way worse off than you.

This one can be trickyyou don’t want to go down the rabbit hole of feeling even more hopeless, sad, or upset. Just know you are lucky to have basic things like a roof over your head, a friend to talk to, access to clean water. There is so much we take for granted that we can focus on being grateful for. Better yet, let this motivate you to do something to help those people, in any small way possible.

Realizing that you can actually control a lot of what you let into your world.

You don’t have to know everything and be aware of every current event. Bottled water isn’t poisonous. All men are not cheaters. We still have not been hit with nuclear missiles. It’s OK to occasionally turn off the negative news and skip the articles your friend is always sending. When you need to, block out the mental noise: Don’t let your mind be an open door for chaotic thoughts that other people try to shove in there.

Knowing that when someone is hurtful, nasty, or rude, they are probably suffering.

People who are generally happy don’t usually say or do mean things. When you get a nasty email from a coworker or someone bumps into you and curses at you in the supermarket, know that they are currently struggling with something (or many things). They may be getting pressure from someone else and dealing with a personal issue. Practice compassion, and if you’re feeling really generous, wish for them to have everything they want in life that you would want for yourself. Here are the questions young people ask Helaina the most about surviving 9/11.

Staying in the present moment. Everything is usually OK there.

If you don’t feel “OK,” chances are you’re thinking about some past event and stewing in it, or you’re fearful of some possible future event that might happen. Chances are, right now, you are at the baseline definition of OK.

Believing in something that is bigger than you, but that doesn’t control negative events.

You don’t have to be religious to have faith in something. It can be the ocean. A crystal. Morning sun on your porch. Whatever this concept of something greater is, however, it does not allow bad things to happen or cause bad things to happen. Instead, imagine it as something nurturing that is always there giving you personal strength to endure life’s challenges.

Recognizing that bad things in the world don’t have to affect the good things you bring into it.

Focus on bringing as much good as you can into your own universe, your everyday life, and the people who enter or pass through it. You can’t control millions of voters or bodies of government or sick criminals, but you can control whether you wait an extra beat to hold a door open, bring your dog over to visit an elderly neighbor you’ve caught admiring them, or writing a sweet message to a friend just because.

Knowing that most of your fears are staring right back at you.

On a personal level, a lot of what we worry others will think or do starts within. Do we write stories about people or comment on what they look like, say, who they date, what they wear? Spoiler alert: We don’t all think the same way, but once you start controlling, and stopping, any negative thought chains in your own mind, it’s amazing how quickly those worries about what people think of you start to dissolve over time as well.

Learning who you can actually trust when the world feels untrustworthy.

When the world feels out of control or you’ve been betrayed by someone, which we all have at one point or another, you need points of reference and awareness to stay strong. Don’t over share with the first person you meet; build a friendship slowly over time and test out small secrets you wouldn’t mind getting out. See how a person talks about other peoplethat’ll give you a good idea of where you’ll land.

Always having hope.

When it feels like the world is going to the dogs and you have no hope, surprise, you actually do. I saw the hilarious and insightful comedian Louise C.K. put it bluntly when he performed at Madison Square Garden. And while he takes this subject a little lightly, he’s right: We have a choice whether to live this day. “Every day that we wake up and choose to live this day again is incredibly brave. It’s always in your control.” If you are living, you have hope. It may feel like just a glimmer of a sparkly nugget buried under a pile of mud and poop, and maybe you can’t see it at all, but it’s there.

Accepting that nothing can ever stay up or down.

If you’re down right now, that means at some pointmaybe not on your timeline, maybe not exactly the way you want itthings will get better.

Learning that there is power in powerlessness.

There are so many things that are out of our control, yet we feel we have to make things happen, move things along to feel OK. Oftentimes, when we push, it makes things worse. Pick your battles, and know that sometimes shrugging and having patience or accepting something that isn’t very likely to change is actually a huge relief, and a lot less stressful than the other option, which will likely get you more frustrated.

Feelings of impending disaster can be a positive.

I had to learn to turn fear into positive energy. We don’t know always if a loved one will make it home. We don’t know if we’ll make it home. We don’t know when the chance will come to finally say what we need to say to someone, whether it’s “I love you” or “I’m sorry” or “I think I’m the one for the job.” Instead of dwelling in the terror of what the end could and might look like for you and everyone you care about, use it as motivation to live your life to the fullest.

I hope this list helps you navigate the larger world and your own world just a bit more smoothly and peacefully than you did before.

** Helaina Hovitz is the author of After 9/11.

 

Readers Digest

The inability of Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to meet foreign exchange (FX) obligations may result in a decline in imports, PwC Nigeria says in its bi-monthly economic outlook for the country.

In the October report, titled, ‘Impact of Global Economic Trends on Nigeria’s Foreign Exchange and the Way Forward’, PwC said the unsettled $7 billion FX obligations of the CBN to banks will affect the confidence of foreign suppliers as regards letters of credit.

“Foreign suppliers may not accept letters of credit amid unsettled $7 billion FX obligations to domestic lenders,” the firm said.

“This may lead to less imports of the much-needed inputs and goods for manufacturing and retail/wholesale trade which may heighten inflationary pressures and negatively impact.”

According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), in the  first half of 2023, total imports rose slightly by 3.05 percent, compared to exports, which saw a sharp increase of 8.16 percent.

Commenting on the impact of the backlog on consumers, PwC said “the unsettled FX backlogs may lead to scarcity of goods and inputs for manufacturing and trade leading to further increase in prices”.

Also, PwC said the lack of forward guidance on FX policy and the unsettled backlog of FX obligations may continue to impact the sentiment of investors, who may adopt a “wait-and-see approach”.

The multinational said FX inflow may also decline due to an increase in the monetary policy rates of global central banks, which may lead to capital reallocation from Nigeria’s financial market to other markets with more attractive yields on investment.

“Capital reallocation from Nigeria’s economy may continue to impact foreign investment flows in the short to medium term,” PwC said.

PwC said the FX scarcity will persist in the short term despite the policies implemented by the CBN to improve accessibility, such as the reintroduction of Bureau De Change (BDC) and the adoption of the FX price verification system.

 

The Cable

Nigeria’s growth forecast has been reduced from 3.3 percent to 2.9 percent in 2023 and 3.1 in 2024 respectively, with negative effects of high inflation on consumption taking hold.

The cut is contained in the World Economic Outlook released at the Annual Meeting of the IMF/World in Marrakesh, Morocco on Tuesday.

The growth forecast for 2023 is revised downward by 0.3 percentage points, reflecting weaker oil and gas production than expected, partially due to maintenance work.

The World Bank had cut Nigeria’s 2022 growth forecast to 3.1% from a previous forecast of 3.8% in 2022.

In its last Nigeria Development Update (NDU), launched in Abuja, the bank said that the country had to make hard choices or face a worse economic downturn in the months and years ahead.

Since the Swearing of President Bola Tinubu on May 29, he has removed fuel subsidy and floated the exchange rate in line with the age-long recommendation of the IMF and World Bank.

A development that has seen the rate tumble to over N1000 to the dollar, and the energy prices increase by four folds from N144 to N620, impacting an already worsening inflation scenario.

The baseline forecast is for global growth to slow from 3.5 percent in 2022 to 3.0 percent in 2023 and 2.9 percent in 2024, well below the historical (2000–19) average of 3.8 percent.

Advanced economies are expected to slow from 2.6 percent in 2022 to 1.5 percent in 2023 and 1.4 percent in 2024 as policy tightening starts to bite.

Emerging market and developing economies are projected to have a modest decline in growth from 4.1 percent in 2022 to 4.0 percent in both 2023 and 2024. Global inflation is forecast to decline steadily, from 8.7 percent in 2022 to 6.9 percent in 2023 and 5.8 percent in 2024, due to tighter monetary policy aided by lower international commodity prices.

 

Daily Trust

Gunmen kidnapped four people from a house in the university town of Keffi, in Nasarawa state, police said on Tuesday.

Kidnapping for ransom is rife in Nigeria, but attacks have mostly been in the northwest region where armed men have targeted university students.

Nasarawa police spokesperson Rahman Nansel said police received a distress call at about 0155 GMT on Tuesday after armed men invaded a house in Angwan Kaare community and responded with the military, but the kidnappers had already fled with their victims.

"The Commissioner of Police has ordered a manhunt for the culprits with a view to rescue the four victims unhurt," Nansel said in a statement.

Keffi is about 70 km (43 miles) east of Abuja, the Nigerian capital.

Kidnapping for ransom is part of widespread insecurity in Nigeria. Islamist insurgents still carry out deadly attacks in the northeast, violent clashes between herders and farmers continue to claim lives in the central region, and separatists attack security forces in the southeast.

 

Reuters

With the outbreak of an intensified war between Israel and Palestine, can mediation efforts help?

The United Nations secretary-general says he is “deeply distressed” by Israel’s complete siege of the Gaza Strip on day four of the deadly assault.

Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said bombardment has “just started” after at least 900 Israelis were killed in the unprecedented Hamas attack on Saturday.

Most Western nations have shied away from calling on Israel to slow its brutal military response.

More than 700 Palestinians have been killed in three days of intense bombing, with 2.4 million Palestinians living there having nowhere to go amid an Israeli land, sea and air blockade.

Can the international community intervene to stop Israel from exacting collective punishment on the Palestinians of Gaza?

“I think it’s early to talk about mediation, because [right now] Israel is reacting based on anger and revenge,” Professor Mahjoob Zweiri, director of the Gulf Studies Center at Qatar University, told Al Jazeera.

Here’s a closer look at the countries and international organisations that may play peacemaker.

The Arab League

The Arab League’s foreign ministers will meet on Wednesday in an emergency summit.

The extraordinary session was requested by the Palestinian delegation, the League’s statement said.

Secretary-General Hossam Zaki said the ministers would discuss Arab efforts to “stop the Israeli aggression” on Gaza.

The possible outcomes of tomorrow’s meeting remain unclear.

Zweiri says the Arab League has no role to play. “It’s a reflection of the fragmented Arab governments. It has no tools.”

China

Beijing expressed deep concern over the escalation of conflict and called for “calm”.

Observers have wondered if China will try to promote itself as a regional peacemaker after it successfully brokered a rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia.

In April, the country’s then-foreign minister, Qin Gang, told the Israeli and Palestinian foreign ministers that China was ready to facilitate efforts towards peace talks.

China supports a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, based on pre-1967 borders and with East Jerusalem as the capital of a sovereign Palestinian state. It has also advocated for international development assistance for Palestinians.

Egypt

Cairo has acted as a mediator between Israel and Palestinian groups in previous conflicts but Zweiri says it will try to distance itself from the escalating situation in Gaza.

“They [Egypt] want to distance themselves from what is happening because … Egypt is going to elections,” he said.

Europe

The leaders of many European nations including France and Germany condemned the Hamas attacks and have shown solidarity with Israel.

The European Union foreign ministers are scheduled to hold an extraordinary meeting on Tuesday afternoon to discuss the war.

The EU’s initial response to the conflict was to announce the immediate suspension of development aid for Palestinians. Later it said it would be reviewing the assistance, not suspending it.

Spain’s Foreign Minister Jose Manuel Albarez said such a move was unacceptable and cooperation must continue.

“We cannot confuse Hamas, which is on the European Union’s list of terrorist groups, with the Palestinian population, the Palestinian Authority, or the United Nations organisations present on the ground,” he told Spanish radio station Cadena SER on Tuesday morning.

Iran

Iran’s possible role in mediation remains unclear.

Its Supreme Leader Ali Hosseini Khamenei said on Tuesday: “We of course defend Palestinians. We kiss the forehead and arms of the brave fighters and youths of Palestine, yes it’s true.

“But those who say non-Palestinians were behind what was done… they do not know Palestinians well. They have underestimated the nation of Palestine. That is their mistake.”

Qatar

The Gulf nation is known for its mediation efforts in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and its ongoing assistance to Gaza, which has been under Israeli siege for 16 years.

“Our priorities are to end the bloodshed, release the prisoners and make sure the conflict is contained with no regional spillover,” foreign ministry spokesperson Majed al-Ansari told Reuters.

However, an Israeli official told Reuters: “There are no negotiations under way.”

Russia

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said creating a Palestinian state was the “most reliable” solution for peace in Israel and that fighting alone would not ensure security.

Turkey

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan called on both Hamas fighters and Israeli armed forces to stop the violence and offered to mediate.

If peace talks are to start, Zweiri believes Turkey and Qatar will both have an active role.

“I’m assuming this because they both have communications with Hamas and Israel, and we have to look at who is capable of being able to talk to both sides.”

UN agencies

As part of earlier mediation efforts, weeks before the Saturday attack, the UN was engaged in diplomacy to try to prevent new armed confrontations between Israel and Hamas.

UN Middle East peace envoy Tor Wennesland met Hamas officials in Gaza and posted on X: “The United Nations is talking to and working with all concerned to improve the lives of people in Gaza, particularly the most vulnerable.”

The United States

Israel’s closest ally has promised “rock solid and unwavering” support to Israel and said it would send munitions as it moved its military ships and aircraft closer to it.

Al Jazeera’s senior correspondent John Hendren, reporting from Washington, DC, said talks of diplomacy and of a two-state solution are on hold for now.

Washington has said it wants a future Palestinian state, but it has failed to convince Israel, to which it gives $3bn in annual military aid, to honour the agreements it signed with the Palestinians.

Settlement expansion on Palestinian lands and settler violence have increased, particularly under the extreme right-wing government Netanyahu heads.

Zweiri said the US reaction has been shocking. “They [the US] are basically allowing Israel to do what they want in Gaza.”

 

Aljazeera

Israeli warplanes hammered the Gaza Strip neighborhood by neighborhood Tuesday, reducing buildings to rubble and sending people scrambling to find safety in the tiny, sealed-off territory now suffering severe retaliation for the deadly weekend attack by Hamas militants.

Humanitarian groups pleaded for the creation of corridors to get aid into Gaza and warned that hospitals overwhelmed with wounded people were running out of supplies. Israel has stopped entry of food, fuel and medicines into Gaza, and the sole remaining access from Egypt shut down Tuesday after airstrikes hit near the border crossing.

The war, which has claimed at least 1,900 lives on both sides, is expected to escalate. The weekend attack that Hamas said was retribution for worsening conditions for Palestinians under Israeli occupation has inflamed Israel’s determination to crush the group’s hold in Gaza. New exchanges of fire over Israel’s northern borders with militants in Lebanon and Syria on Tuesday pointed to the risk of an expanded regional conflict.

Hamas militants stormed into Israel on Saturday morning, slaying hundreds of residents in homes and streets near the Gaza border and bringing gunbattles to Israeli towns for the first time in decades. Hamas and other militant groups in Gaza hold about 150 soldiers and civilians hostage, according to Israel.

Israel stepped up its offensive on Tuesday, expanding the mobilization of reservists to 360,000. Israel’s military said it had regained effective control over areas Hamas attacked in its south and of the Gaza border.

A looming question is whether Israel will launch a ground assault into Gaza — a 40-kilometer-long (25-mile) strip of land wedged among Israel, Egypt and the Mediterranean Sea that is home to 2.3 million people and has been governed by Hamas since 2007.

Rescue officials in Gaza said “large numbers” of people were still trapped under the remnants of leveled buildings, with rescue equipment and ambulances unable to reach the area.

On Tuesday, a large part of Gaza City’s Rimal neighborhood was reduced to rubble after hours of airstrikes the night before. Residents found buildings torn in half or demolished to mounds of concrete and rebar. Cars were flattened and trees burned out on residential streets transformed into moonscapes.

Palestinian Civil Defense forces pulled Abdullah Musleh out of his basement together with 30 others after their apartment building was flattened.

“I sell toys, not missiles,’’ the 46-year-old said, weeping. “I want to leave Gaza. Why do I have to stay here? I lost my home and my job.”

The Israeli military said it struck hundreds of targets in Rimal, an upscale district home to ministries of the Hamas-run government, universities, media organizations and the aid agency offices.

In a new tactic, Israel is warning civilians to evacuate neighborhood after neighborhood, and then inflicting devastation, in what could be a prelude to a ground offensive. On Tuesday, the military told residents of the nearby al-Daraj neighborhood to evacuate. New explosions soon rocked it and other areas, continuing into the night.

Fighter jets returned multiple times to another neighborhood, al-Furqan, striking 450 targets in 24 hours, the Israeli military said.

One blast hit Gaza City’s seaport, setting fishing boats aflame.

“There is no safe place in Gaza right now. You see decent people being killed every day,” Gaza journalist Hasan Jabar said after three Palestinian journalists were killed in the Rimal bombardment. “I am genuinely afraid for my life.”

On Tuesday afternoon, Hamas fired barrages of rockets toward the southern Israeli city of Ashkelon and Tel Aviv. There were no immediate reports of casualties. On Tuesday night, a group of militants entered an industrial zone in Ashkelon, sparking a gunbattle with Israeli troops, the military said. Three militants were killed, and troops were searching the area for others.

Israel’s new tactics could point to its new objective.

Four previous rounds of Israel-Hamas fighting between 2008 and 2021 all ended inconclusively, with Hamas battered but still in control. This time, Israel’s government is under intense pressure from the public to topple Hamas, a goal considered unachievable in the past because it would require a reoccupation of the Gaza Strip, at least temporarily.

“The objective is for this war to end very differently from all of the previous rounds. There has to be a clear victory,” said Chuck Freilich, a former deputy national security adviser in Israel. “Whatever has to be done to fundamentally change the situation will have to be done,” he said.

The devastation also sharpened questions about Hamas’ strategy and objectives. Hamas officials have said they planned for all possibilities, including a punishing Israeli escalation. Desperation has grown among Palestinians, many of whom see nothing to lose under unending Israeli control and increasing settlements in the West Bank, a 16-year-long blockade in Gaza and what they see as the world’s apathy.

Hamas may have been counting on the fight to spread to the West Bank and possibly for Lebanon’s Hezbollah to open a front in the north. Days of clashes between rock-throwing Palestinians and Israeli forces in the West Bank have left 15 Palestinians dead, but Israel has clamped down heavily on the territory, preventing movement between communities. The violence also spread into east Jerusalem, where Israeli police said they killed two Palestinians who hurled stones at police late Tuesday.

Brief exchanges of fire across Israel’s northern border have taken place nearly daily. Palestinian militants fired rockets into northern Israel from Lebanon and from Syria on Tuesday, each bringing Israeli artillery and mortar fire in return. But so far they have not escalated.

In hopes of blunting the bombardment in Gaza, Hamas has threatened to kill one Israeli civilian captive any time Israel targets civilians in their homes in Gaza “without prior warning.”

The militants’ attack stunned Israel with a death toll unseen since the 1973 war with Egypt and Syria — and those deaths happened over a longer period of time. It brought horrific scenes of Hamas militants gunning down civilians in their homes, on streets and at a mass outdoor music festival, while dragging men, women and children into captivity.

The Israeli military said more than 1,000 people, including 155 soldiers, have been killed in Israel. In Gaza, 900 people have been killed, including 260 children and 230 women, according to authorities there; Israel says hundreds of Hamas fighters are among them. Thousands have been wounded on both sides.

U.S. President Joe Biden said Tuesday at least 14 U.S. citizens were killed in Hamas’ attack and that Americans are among those being held hostage in Gaza. Biden, who spoke earlier in the day with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, said “there is no justification for terrorism.”

Biden added an apparent warning to Hezbollah, saying, “To any country, any organization, anyone thinking of taking advantage of the situation, I have one word: Don’t.”

The State Department announced that Secretary of State Antony Blinken would travel in the coming days to Israel to deliver a message of solidarity and support.

Hamas responded to Biden, saying his administration should “review its biased position” and “move away from the policy of double standards” over Palestinian rights to defend themselves against Israeli occupation.

The bodies of roughly 1,500 Hamas militants were found on Israeli territory, the military said. It wasn’t clear whether those numbers overlapped with deaths reported by Palestinian authorities. Tens of thousands of people in southern Israel have been evacuated since Sunday.

In Gaza, more than 200,000 people have fled their homes, the U.N. said, the most since a 2014 air and ground offensive by Israel uprooted about 400,000. The vast majority are sheltering in schools run by the U.N. agency for Palestinian refugees. Damage to three water and sanitation sites have cut off services to 400,000 people, the U.N. said.

The U.N.’s World Health Organization said that supplies it had pre-positioned for seven hospitals in Gaza have already run out amid the flood of wounded. The head of the medical aid group Doctors Without Borders said surgical equipment, antibiotics, fuel and other supplies were running out at two hospitals it runs in Gaza.

 

AP

WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Will US military aid to Israel jeopardize Biden's help to Ukraine?

U.S. President Joe Biden pledged to bolster military support for Israel following an unprecedented attack by Hamas militants that has killed more than 1,000 Israelis and prompted an intense retaliation against the Palestinian-controlled Gaza Strip.

His promise raised questions about whether Washington can ramp up defense aid to Israel without jeopardizing aid for Ukraine, especially given Republican lawmakers' ouster of House of Representatives Speaker Kevin McCarthy and failure so far to name a replacement.

Biden administration officials insist Washington can absolutely do both, but acknowledge there will be challenges.

WHY DOES IT MATTER THAT THERE IS NO HOUSE SPEAKER?

The U.S. Congress controls spending, so Biden must convince the Senate and House to pass legislation authorizing additional funding. These spending bills generally originate in the House, where the Speaker - the elected leader of the majority party - controls what legislation is put to a vote.

Republicans hold a narrow 221-212 majority in the House, which made it possible for just a handful of their members to oust McCarthy last week, the first time in U.S. history this has happened.

Because McCarthy's ouster was unprecedented, it is not clear whether Representative Patrick McHenry, who is serving as temporary speaker, can legally call a vote on any aid legislation.

Further complicating the issue, many of the hard-right members who ousted McCarthy oppose aid to Ukraine, including Representative Jim Jordan, a frontrunner in the Speaker's race. House Republicans refused to include aid to Ukraine in a last-minute spending bill passed last month to avert a government shutdown.

Support for Israel is far stronger, with Republicans closely tied to conservative Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and the Biden administration is considering tying a request for assistance to Ukraine to more money for Israel.

HOW MUCH DO ISRAEL AND UKRAINE'S NEEDS OVERLAP?

Israel is a major long-term recipient of U.S. military assistance and enjoys a steady stream of U.S. aid. The two countries agreed in 2016 on a 10-year deal with $38 billion covering annual grants to buy military equipment and a $5 billion missile defense appropriation.

In the current phase of the conflict, Israel's major need is for small arms for its infantry and air defense interceptors to protect its civilian infrastructure and military command and control centers.

It is unlikely Israel has burned through its small arms ammunition this early in the conflict.

On the missile defense side, Israel uses the Iron Dome system, developed with U.S. backing to provide air defenses. Iron Dome is not designed to fire the same interceptor used by the U.S.-made Patriot system and other missile defense units deployed in Ukraine.

Ukraine's major needs are ammunition, missile defense systems and ground vehicles as it fights to take back territory from Russian invaders who launched an offensive in February 2022.

The United States has sent $44 billion in security assistance to Ukraine since the invasion started, asking Congress for several tranches of assistance, the last one approved in December 2022.

The two countries - and other recipients of weapons aid like Taiwan - would benefit if Congress approves funding to boost the permanent manufacturing capacity of U.S. defense contractors. This would also ease concerns that shipments of U.S. weapons overseas is depleting U.S. stocks at the potential risk to national security.

WHAT HAPPENS NOW?

Biden on Tuesday said his administration had already begun sending Israel additional military assistance including interceptors to replenish the Iron Dome. He said that when Congress returns, the administration will ask lawmakers to take "urgent action to the national security requirements of our critical partners."

There are a few ways that additional aid for Ukraine - and Israel - could become law.

Congress could consider a standalone spending bill combining the two, along the lines of a spending request Biden made in August combining Ukraine, disaster relief and border security money.

Funding for both also could be included in a larger spending bill, which Congress must pass later this year to keep the federal government open when the stopgap spending measure expires next month.

** UK-led coalition to give Ukraine 100 mln pound mine-clearing support package

A British-led group of European countries will provide Ukraine with a 100 million pound ($122.70 million) package to support its armed forces including equipment to clear minefields.

Britain's defence ministry on Wednesday said Ukraine was "now the most mined country on earth," which had become an obstacle in its counter-offensive this year, and that mine clearing capabilities were essential to help it push forward.

The package will be provided using money from the International Fund for Ukraine - a group of countries including Britain, Norway, the Netherlands, Denmark and Sweden.

Defence minister Grant Shapps will announce the package alongside allies and attend his first NATO-Ukraine Council, where he is expected to discuss the Israel-Gaza crisis and reported damage to undersea infrastructurebetween Finland and Estonia.

 

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

Russia reiterates warning over black market Ukrainian weapons

The unchecked delivery of Western weapons to Ukraine has resulted in a large amount of these arms ending up in the hands of organized criminal groups and extremists around the world, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova has again claimed. 

On Tuesday, the diplomat published a compilation of excerpts from briefings over the past 18 months in which Moscow consistently raised concerns and provided evidence testifying to the unchecked spread of weapons supplied to Kiev. 

Zakharova suggested that the reason for this phenomenon was rampant corruption in Ukraine as well as corrupt ties between Washington and Kiev. Despite Moscow repeatedly calling for international media to highlight the issue, major Western news outlets have refused to conduct investigations or assess the data, the spokeswoman added. 

Below is a collection of briefings conducted by the Russian Foreign Ministry since March 24, 2022, in which it warned the international community on the issue.

** Zelensky fears that West will pay less attention to Ukraine amid Middle East crisis

Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky fears that the West may pay less attention to the conflict in Ukraine amid the recent attack on Israel by Palestine’s radical movement HAMAS.

"The global community may become less attentive to Ukraine," Zelensky said in an interview to France 2.

At the same time, he "hopes for continued US support."

The Ukrainian president also claimed that "if the aid to Kiev ceases, time will be on Russia’s side."

On October 7, after Israel came under shelling from the Gaza Strip, a group of Hamas militants infiltrated the Jewish state. Hamas calls its attack a response to Israeli actions against the Al-Aqsa Mosque on the Temple Mount in Jerusalem. Israel has announced it was ready for war, started Operation Iron Swords and ordered a complete siege of the Gaza Strip. Clashes erupted in the West Bank and there was an exchange of artillery fire on the border with Lebanon.

 

Reuters/RT/Tass