• Perishable foods worth N40b lost in three weeks
• Rice price soar from N30,000 to N55,000 per 50kg
• Border closure splits couples, families
• Reject war option against Niger, stakeholders say in final push

Ripple effects of economic sanctions on Niger Republic are rocking at least seven Nigerian states bordering the south of Niger. In the third week of the political and economic tension, about 8.5 million Nigerians living in border towns and communities have continued to count their losses running into over N40 billion.

They said since the Federal Government closed the border on August 3, perishable goods like onions, tomatoes, pepper, potatoes, and livestock are being lost, just as trade worth about $226.34 million is at risk of collapse.

Also, some marital relationships are being threatened because couples that engaged in cross-border trading before the border closure have not been able to return to their various homes.

Recall that Economic Communities of West African State (ECOWAS) Head of States had severed trade relationship with Niger, following a military coup led by General Abdlourahamane Tchiani that truncated democracy and sacked Mohammed Bazoum as the president of the country.

Seven states including Kebbi, Katsina, Sokoto, Zamfara, Jigawa, Yobe and Borno shared boundaries with the francophone country, covering a 1,608 kilometres stretch.

Findings by our correspondents revealed that the states are losing an estimated sum of N13 billion weekly to the border closure to trade, farms, and markets shutdown.

Consequently, prices of locally produced rice and other products have appreciated in the border towns because smuggling and other cross-border trading have been halted, worsening economic conditions of residents.

A 50kg of local rice sold at N17,000 before border closure now goes for N30,000 while imported rice sold at N30,000, of the same weight, now sells at N55,000, necessitating an increase in demand for local rice.

Besides rice, Nigeria depends on the route for edible fruit and nuts, peel of citrus fruit or melons, raw hides and skins (other than fur skins) and leather, edible vegetables and certain roots and tuber, dairy produce; birds’ eggs; natural honey; edible products of animal origin, and others.

In turn, Nigeria exports mineral fuels, mineral oils and products of their distillation, bituminous substances, tobacco and manufactured tobacco substitutes, salt, sulphur, plastering materials, lime, cement, plastics, fertilisers, and others that have been put to a halt.

Chairman of Arewa Economic Forum (AEF), Ibrahim Dandakata, reckoned that the border closure is hurting Nigerians, noting that Northern Nigerian businessmen have over 2,000 containers of perishable goods stranded at the border.  

He said: “Financially, our members lose N13 billion per week at the Nigeria-Niger border. It has affected us very badly in the North. We Nigerians benefit more from the trade between Nigeria and Niger, and so we suffer more than the Nigeriens under the current border closure.”

To save the farmers and traders from further loss of resources, he suggested opening of the Maje border post between Nigeria and Benin Republic in Kebbi State, as an alternative route.

Dandakata said: “According to 2022 statistics, formal trade between the two countries accounts for $234 million (N171 billion), while informal trade is roughly estimated to be at $683 million (N515 billion), mostly in perishable commodities.”

He continued: “With the closure of the border, the average weekly loss is about N13 billion in value of trade. Since the closure is on major borders between Niger and Nigeria in Jibia in Katsina, Illela in Sokoto and Maigatari in Jigawa, we strongly recommend the immediate reopening of Maje/Illo border station in Kebbi State, which Nigerian traders use to access Benin Republic and Niger Republic,” he noted.

He warned that military intervention in the Niger crisis would wipe out all the gains that Nigeria recorded in the fight against terrorists in Northern Nigeria. 

He said: “If that military intervention starts, arms will flood Nigeria.  The crisis will not affect Northern Nigeria alone.  It will spread to all parts of Nigeria, the sub-region and indeed the whole region.”

Sani Kankia, a resident of Illela local Government Area in Sokoto State, which borders Tahoua in Niger, said a significant portion of their community food items are sourced from Niger.

He said: “We are facing scarcity of food due to the border closure. This scarcity has resulted in soaring prices, including a sharp rise in the cost of foreign rice from N30,000 to N55,000 per bag, a bag of millet has jumped from N45,000 to N65,000.”

Residents of communities in Katsina State located close to the Nigerian border with Niger also lamented the downturn of socio-economic activities since the borders were closed.

The residents who spoke to our correspondents in several border communities in Baure, Jibia, Kaita, Maiadua, Mashi, and Zango local councils in Katsina State said farming and trading activities have been halted because of the fears of being attacked by militants and strange faces they see in their communities.

One of the traders, Lawal Kaita said Magama market in Jibia, which they operate every Sunday, has been deserted because of the border closure.

He said: “Maiadua market is located at Kongolam, and opens on Sundays, with varieties of goods like household items, domestic animals, and electrical appliances have been shut.”  

A community leader in Kongolam, Umaru Shirwa, who lamented the situation called on the Federal Government to consider other options of engaging the military junta, and “stop punishing innocent civilians”.

When contacted, the chairman of Jibia local council, Bishir Maito, declined comments, but he hinted that some members of the National Assembly have alerted him of their “visit to the community to assess the impact of the border closure on the residents.”

PRIOR to the sudden closure of the border, Illela in Sokoto State was a boisterous town like every other border town, where brisk businesses and trans-border trading thrive. 
The long history of fraternal relationship between Nigeria and Niger Republic is now replaced with fear, suspicion, and tension. Illela international cattle market used to attract buyers and sellers from every part of Nigeria and neighbouring countries as far as Togo, Chad and Mali.
Chairman of the cattle section of the market, Bashir Zubairu,  said that “the market was the worst hit since the closure of the border, as herds of cows cannot be brought to the market.
He said: “The decision to close the border was totally strange to nomadic herdsmen, who move about with their animals in search of pasture. Those who were already heading to the Illela international cattle market, had to divert their animals to other nearby countries. The scarcity of animals in the market reduced business activities and revenue in the market.

“As I speak with you, the closure of the border has affected our business negatively because of the exchange rate of Naira to CFA.”

 Lamenting negative effects of the border closure, Abubakar Usman, said: “because of our closeness with the Republic of Niger, anything that affects them, will affect us. This decision to close the Illela border with Niger Republic has started affecting our economy and lifestyle.

Abdallah Nasir is in a dilemma as his thriving iced block business has been paralysed following the closure of the border.

Narrating his ordeal, Abdallah said: “I go to Niger Republic every day to buy iced blocks, bring them to Illela and sell because they have constant power supply unlike what obtains in Illela.

“I usually buy between N8,000 and N100,000 iced blocks every day to sell but, since the border was closed, there is no way to enter Niger Republic. Right now, there is no business; we are surviving on the little money I saved. I hope the border will soon be reopened so that I don’t tamper with the capital for my business.

Worried by ECOWAS’ threats to adopt a military option to re-install democratic government in Niger Republic, Mijinyawa Auta advised ECOWAS Heads of States to exercise some restraint.

The border closure was estimated to impact the $226.34 million trade between both countries. According to the International Trade Centre, imports and exports between Nigeria and Niger in 2022 totalled $226.34 million. Nigeria imported $33.43 million worth of goods and exported goods worth $192.91 million to Niger.

There was also a flurry of complaints as residents of Maigatari town and Galadi village in Babura local government area of Jigawa State that share boundary with Niger Republic have pleaded with the Federal Government to engage military junta in peaceful dialogue to end the hostility and save businesses of many Nigerians.

They said trading activities have ceased in various markets in Shuwarin in Kiyawa local government, Sara in Gwaram and Gujungu in Taura local government area of the state. 

Our correspondents observed total and full compliance of the border closure at both the Nigerian Immigration Service, (NIS) and Nigerian Customs Service, (NCS) entry points as both gates remained firmly closed.

This is in sharp contrast to such closure in 2021, when Fulani women from Niger Republic, who sell fura da nono (local dairy milk) were allowed to access the town. This time, not even the bush paths known in the local parlance as “No man’s land” were spared the eagle eyes of the combined border security agencies, as they rebuffed all appeals to allow the reporter to access Adari, a village on the other side of the Niger republic.

Painting a grim picture of the effects of the sanction, leader of the Maigatari International market, Muhammadu Ibrahim said the situation has brought untold hardship to his members and even traders from Nigeria Republic as they depended on each other for the trade to thrive.

According to him, “Going to war with the Niger Republic is something we cannot even think about and pray for because we and them are one. Some of our wives and children live in Niger while some of their own wives and children also live and earn their living in Nigeria.

“All we can say is to appeal to our leaders, especially our president, to consider resolving this crisis immediately so that we return to the way we used to be.”

His sentiment was echoed by Muhammadu Danduwa, a former chairman and now the Secretary-General of the Cattle Dealers’ Association, Maigatari International market the effect of the sanction on the business of cattle trading is so enormous, because it is the primary business that thrives between the two countries.

Former Foreign Affairs Minister and ex-governor of Jigawa State, Sule Lamido, has blamed what he referred to as “Tinubu’s diplomatic naivety” as responsible for the current crisis, and called for immediate retracing of steps to save the situation.
Lamido, in a statement, advised the president to consult widely with some of his predecessors, who are still alive to tap from their experiences on how to amicably resolve some of the knotty diplomatic issues.
He said: “In the last couple of days, two brotherly and sisterly countries were almost on the brink of war neither of them could fathom or justify. The big brother Nigeria has become entangled in a far-fetched multilateral moral pretense of regional formation called ECOWAS that it has jettisoned its fundamental primary responsibility to the constituency (Nigeria) that gave it the legal authority to that membership.
He said: “I thought Tinubu would have from the onset looked into the chemistry of the cocktail called ECOWAS before taking weighty decisions on any issue that affects the region and its consequences on his country.
“There is total unanimity in Nigeria that we should not go to war with Niger for so many reasons, especially the seven states contiguous to Niger Republic! In any case the Senate mandated by Nigerian Constitution to authorise the President with such powers has unambiguously withheld that authority.”

 

The Guardian

The Wagner private military company is continuing to recruit and is working hard “to make Russia even greater,” the head of the group, Evgeny Prigozhin, has said in a new video address. He added that Wagner is also seeking to help Africa become “even more free.”  

The short video emerged online on Monday and was apparently filmed in Africa. The PMC boss was armed and dressed in military garb while standing in a savannah-like landscape, with multiple armed men and gun trucks visible in the background.

“The Wagner Group conducts reconnaissance and search activities. Making Russia even greater on all continents! And Africa even more free. Justice and happiness for all the African peoples,” Prigozhin stated, adding that the group has been pursuing “ISIS, Al-Qaeda, and other bandits.”

Wagner is hiring “real heroes,” the PMC boss said, claiming that it continues “to fulfill the tasks that were set and to which we made a promise that we could handle.” Prigozhin did not elaborate on the specific nature of those tasks, or the people who had set them. It was also not immediately clear exactly when or where the address had been recorded.

The address comes after around two months of silence from the Wagner chief. Prigozhin had been active on social media prior to the botched insurrection launched by the PMC in late June, amid a dispute with the Russian Defense Ministry. The PMC ended up being re-deployed to Russia’s closest ally, Belarus, under a deal facilitated by President Alexander Lukashenko. 

Over the past few weeks, Poland has repeatedly sounded the alarm over Wagner’s presence in Belarus, even claiming that its contractors tried to breach the border. Minsk has firmly rejected the allegations of Wagner’s purported activities, with Lukashenko claiming Warsaw had “gone mad”with all the speculation surrounding the PMC.

 

Russia Today

WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Ukraine's Zelenskiy says F-16s make him 'confident' that Russia will lose the war

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy told a crowd in Denmark on Monday that promised deliveries of U.S.-made F-16 fighter jets had made him confident Ukraine could end Russia's invasion.

Denmark and the Netherlands on Sunday announced they would supply the first F-16s to Ukraine, with the initial six due to be delivered around New Year. Washington had approved the delivery of the jets ahead of Zelenskiy's trip to Copenhagen.

"Today we are confident that Russia will lose this war," Zelenskiy told thousands of people who gathered outside the Danish parliament to hear his speech.

Russia warned earlier that supplying the jets to Ukraine would only escalate the war, which has dragged on for almost 18 months. Russian forces are occupying almost a fifth of Ukraine's territory and Kyiv is battling hard to push them out.

"The fact that Denmark has now decided to donate 19 F-16 aircraft to Ukraine leads to an escalation of the conflict," Russian ambassador Vladimir Barbin said in a statement cited by the Ritzau news agency.

"By hiding behind a premise that Ukraine itself must determine the conditions for peace, Denmark seeks with its actions and words to leave Ukraine with no other choice but to continue the military confrontation with Russia," he said.

The Ukrainian military said the jet was vital to the success of its counteroffensive, which has proceeded slowly since its launch in early June, as it would prevent Russian fighter jets attacking advancing forces.

"Superiority in the air is key to success on the ground," air force spokesman Yuriy Ihnat was quoted as saying by Ukrainian media.

Danish Defence Minister Jakob Ellemann-Jensen said Ukraine may only use the donated F-16s within its own territory.

"We donate weapons under the condition that they are used to drive the enemy out of the territory of Ukraine. And no further than that," Ellemann-Jensen said on Monday.

"Those are the conditions, whether it's tanks, fighter planes or something else," he said.

Denmark will deliver 19 jets in total. The Netherlands has 42 F-16s available in all but has yet to decide whether all of them will be donated.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has called the decision a "breakthrough agreement".

Defence Minister Oleksiy Reznikov said on Saturday that Ukrainian pilots had begun training, but it would take at least six months and possibly longer to also train engineers and mechanics.

 

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

Attack drones’ shot down near Moscow – mayor

Two Ukrainian “attack drones” have been destroyed by air defenses near the Russian capital, Moscow Mayor Sergey Sobyanin said in the early hours of Tuesday. One UAV was shot down over the city of Krasnogorsk, around 20 kilometers (12 miles) from Moscow, while another one was downed over the village of Chastsy. 

The Russian Defense Ministry, meanwhile, said that a total of four UAVs were used in “terrorist attacks” on Tuesday. Two drones were destroyed in the Moscow Region, and two more were disabled by the means of electronic warfare and crashed in the Bryansk Region, which shares a border with Ukraine, according to the MOD. The Defense Ministry added that no one was hurt.

News agency TASS cited emergency services as saying that the facade of an apartment block in Krasnogorsk has been damaged, as were several cars parked nearby.

A witness in Krasnogorsk told Telegram channel SHOT that she had heard a “very big explosion.” Channel Mash posted a dashcam video, which reportedly shows a bright flash from the blast.

Videos posted to social media show what appear to be drone parts scattered on the pavement in a residential area.

Flights in and out of Moscow’s three main airports – Domodedovo, Sheremetyevo, and Vnukovo – were suspended following the alert. They have since resumed normal operations, TASS said, citing civil aircraft officials.

The MOD previously said that two Ukrainian drones were brought down near Crimea on Monday evening, crashing into the Black Sea.

Kiev has stepped up drone attack on the Russian capital this month, repeatedly targeting its financial district. 

** Ukrainian UAVs intercepted near Crimea – Moscow

Two Ukrainian drones have been disabled and brought down off the coast of Crimea on Monday evening, the Russian Defense Ministry said. Kiev has stepped up unmanned aircraft attacks on Russian soil in recent months. 

The UAVs on a mission to “conduct a terrorist attack” were intercepted around 11 pm local time, the ministry said in a brief statement in the early hours of Tuesday.  

“The two Ukrainian drones have been spotted by the air defenses and downed with the means of electronic warfare,” the MOD said. It added that the UAVs then veered off course, crashing into the Black Sea 40 kilometers (24.8 miles) northwest of the Crimean Peninsula. 

Kiev has increased drone attacks in Crimea and elsewhere in Russia in recent months. According to Russian officials, a drone heading for Moscow was downed on Monday morning. Multiple UAVs were shot down over the weekend in the Belgorod Region, which shares a border with Ukraine, the local governor said.

Several unmanned aircraft crashed in Moscow’s financial district earlier this month, without causing any fatalities. On July 17, a Ukrainian seaborne drone struck the Kerch Bridge, which connects Crimea with mainland Russia, killing two people and injuring their teenage daughter. Moscow responded to the attack on the bridge by striking port infrastructure in the Ukrainian city of Odessa.

 

Reuters/RT

 

It was recently World Population Day.

The annual United Nations designation is not only a chance to recognize "the dreams of all 8 billion of us on our planet," as UN Secretary-General António Guterres put it in a blog post on Tuesday, it's also a chance to take stock at just how rapidly the world around us is shifting.

In just the past 12 months, the world's population topped 8 billion people for the first time, and India overtook China as the most populous country in the world. But even as the global population hits new milestones, one of the buzziest discussions is around the "Great People Shortage," as writers here at Insider have termed it. According to projections, China, Japan, Germany, and even the US are facing the possibility of population decline by 2100 — which could come with some serious economic challenges.

In contrast to the countries facing the possibility of an aging, shrinking populace, other parts of the world are set to take the baton of population growth in the coming decades. Perhaps the most notable of these rapid-risers is Nigeria.

As recently as 1982, Nigeria had fewer than 80 million people and was outside the world's 10 most populous countries. In the 41 years since, Nigeria's population has nearly tripled to 225 million, moving up to sixth on the list. And that is not expected to slow down.

According to the most recent UN projections, Nigeria will nearly double its population again by 2050 to an estimated 377 million. In the process, the country will leap-frog Pakistan and Indonesia and end up in a virtual tie with the US as the third most populous country in the world. That's incredible for a country that is just a bit bigger than the area of Texas.

Nigeria's stunning growth is also indicative of the African continent. According to the UN estimates, five of the eight countries expected to make up half of the world's population growth over the next 27 years are in Africa. In an interview with Africa News, Tighisti Amare, the Deputy Director of the Africa Programme Chatham House in London, pointed out that Africa is the fastest-growing continent and the youngest, noting that 70% of the population is under 30.

"The population growth is, of course, partly explained by improvement in level and access to public health," Amare said. "That has led to decrease in child mortality. And that by itself is good news. And the other good news is that also by having a young population, most African nations do not have the burden of a large elderly population that relies on taxes and pensions, which can be a strain on the economy as well."

She also noted that because of such a young population, countries like Nigeria are producing more workers in the tech industry, increasing the possibility that the solutions for issues that impact Africa, such as climate change, are developed domestically. 

While there are plenty of positives, there are also plenty of development issues that come with such a rapidly expanding population. Michael Herrmann, an economic adviser with the United Nations Population Fund, told Africa News that without proper planning, it could be difficult to care for, educate, and employ a population growing that fast.

"They have decided to meet the needs of people in terms of education, of health care, housing, food, water, energy, security," Hermann said. "They want to create full employment for the people, and a growing population can raise the stakes in these efforts. It makes it harder to achieve these objectives, to achieve social progress, and also it might come with growing pressures on the environment."

Regardless of how Nigeria and other fast-growing African nations handle their explosive growth, World Population Day gives us a chance to reflect on the dramatic human shifts that will reshape our globe in the decades to come.

 

Business Insider

These individuals are often called disruptors or innovators. As businesses struggle to create success in their sectors that technological advances have disrupted, these people are now highly sought-after and rare.

The key difference between those who disrupt and those who are disrupted is their dependence on comfort.

It is often not the physical difficulty of doing something differently that holds us back from change but the emotional discomfort that goes along with it. This emotional discomfort stems from neurobiological, psychological and sociological factors.

Dealing with mental discomfort

The brain is designed to conserve energy as a survival mechanism. It does this by creating neural pathways that drive unconscious behaviour (habits) for tasks we perform on a regular basis. Any new task or activity requires a lot of effort, and the brain will, therefore, always try to revert to habits that are already formed.

“Only once we retrain ourselves and our workforces to become more comfortable with being uncomfortable will we be able to turn disruptive threats into opportunities for success.”

Doing something in a new way is uncomfortable because we feel tired a lot quicker. Humans are used to preparing for and dealing with cyclical change. This is much like being in sync with the seasons that come and go. People are not often exhausted by this kind of change because there are periods of stability within the change.

The nature of disruptive change differs from cyclical change; it is unpredictable and does not contain periods of stability.

Our personality types shape our dependence on stability: 75% of the world’s population prefers to operate in familiar environments and from skills they’ve already perfected.

Adapting to disruption

Disruptive advances require us to work in environments that have changed overnight. Understandably, most employees will have an adverse emotional reaction to the stability businesses have had to let go of to keep their doors open in a disrupted world.

Emotional reactions to change often include anger, fear and sadness. These emotions are not only driven by employees’ personality types but also by the culture of the business.

When the culture of a business – the way we do things around here – is highly resistant to change, even highly adaptable individuals become uncomfortable with doing things differently.

Groups – whether it be colleagues in the work environment, friends or family – set and manage their own boundaries by showing acceptance or rejection of the behaviour of individuals. If an individual’s behaviour threatens the group’s traditional way of doing things, the individual might soon experience that the group has rejected them.

The price of rejection

There is significant discomfort in being on the receiving end of rejection by a group. This discomfort often drives an individual to follow popular opinion rather than their own choice.

This interplay between acceptance and rejection manipulates how easily people in businesses adapt and stick to new ways of doing things. The discomfort of disruption drives businesses and individuals to continue seeking alternatives to change – such as denial, delay and undermining tactics – even though they know that the world as we knew it will never return.

Only once we retrain ourselves and our workforces to become more comfortable with being uncomfortable will we be able to turn disruptive threats into opportunities for success. My advice to businesses is to train their employees in the skills needed to accept change more quickly by understanding what the core purpose – not a job description – of their roles is. 

This understanding must be combined with knowledge of the major trend predictions for the future of their particular profession or sector and a replacement of industrial management habits with a design thinking mindset.

Juanita Vorster is a speaker and successful entrepreneur with a skill for making the complex simple. A Certified Director and Ethics Officer, Vorster runs an outsourced marketing business that has reported profitable growth every year since its inception.

 

Inc

Central Bank of Nigeria interventions in the power, manufacturing and aviation sectors have risen to N5.6tn in three years.

The soft loans were advanced amid the continued and varied challenges facing the key sectors of the economy.

The apex bank loans to the three sectors were obtained from the CBN result and accounts between 2020 and 2022.

The reports which showed credit concentration in the various sectors of the economy indicated that power, aviation and manufacturing sectors recorded an aggregate ofN5.6tn in loans from the central bank.

CBN under its suspended governor, Godwin Emefiele, competed with commercial banks in aggressive lending to some sectors of the economy. The apex bank loans however came in single-digit interest rate and long repayment tenor.

The breakdown revealed that CBN’s receivables and other assets in the power and aviation sector of Nigeria were N50.6bn in 2022, a decline of 96.4 per cent from N1.39tn in 2021.

Also, in the power and aviation sector, it reported N935bn in 2020.

In the manufacturing sector, it reported N1.23tn in 2022, an increase of 33.46 per cent from N919.03bn in 2021. In addition, its concentration in the manufacturing sector was at N1.07tn in 2020.

From the 2022 result and accounts, the apex bank revealed that its total receivables and others was N47.39tn from N43.18tn reported in 2021. Receivables from the Federal Government contributed a significant portion.

Director-General of the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria, Segun Ajayi-Kadir, said the association had made several attempts to secure credit facilities from the apex bank, but did not receive any feedback on any of the occasions it wrote to the CBN.

He said, “We have 2,500 manufacturers. We have asked the CBN which manufacturers they are supporting, so we can collaborate with them, they have not obliged us. We are a coordinated group. We work together. So, to lump us together with other sectors that have non-performing loans, I don’t understand what they are talking about.”

 

Punch

National Drug Law Enforcement Agency (NDLEA) has intercepted $20 million cash suspected to be counterfeit.

The agency said its operatives found the stash on Friday during a stop and search operation along Abaji-Lokoja road in the federal capital territory (FCT).

In a statement on Sunday, Femi Babafemi, NDLEA spokesperson, said the suspected fake dollars was recovered from a bus coming from Lagos to Abuja, while the driver of the vehicle has been arrested.

The agency also seized illicit drugs recovered at a warehouse in Alaba market in Lagos state.

The warehouse is said to be owned by a wanted billionaire drug baron who parades as an automobile spare parts dealer.

The NDLEA spokesperson said the illicit drugs recovered from the warehouse are worth N4,820,500,000.

“Recovered from the warehouse owned by a wanted billionaire drug baron, include: 1.4 million (1,400,000) pills of tramadol 225mg weighing 826kgs; 3.2 million (3,200,000) pills of codeine with gross weight of 3,360kgs; and 2,841 cartons of codeine syrup containing 284,100 bottles with 28,410 litres of the psychoactive substance, with a combined street value of four billion eight hundred and twenty million five hundred thousand naira (N4,820,500,000) only,” the statement reads.

Babafemi said the NDLEA operatives arrested a suspect, Paulinus Ojukwu, who acts as the chief security officer to the wanted suspect.

 

The Cable

WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Ukrainians torn by evacuation calls as Russian shells fall in northeast

Ukrainians living in the northeastern Kupiansk district close to Russia's border on Sunday found themselves torn between the will to stay and protect what they have built and the desire to flee from Russian artillery fire.

"If you said the evacuation is going well," Dmytro Lozhenko, who runs a volunteer group that helps civilians flee the fighting, said on television, "It would sound like a bit of sarcasm."

Regional authorities announced a mandatory evacuation of civilians from near the Kupiansk front earlier this month due to daily Russian shelling.

The artillery toll on Sunday, Ukraine's prosecutor general said, began in the morning with an attack on the city of Kupiansk that sent a 45-year-old man to hospital in serious condition.

At 1:20 p.m., the second shelling of the city center injured three civilian men, including an emergency medical assistant, and a 20-year-old woman.

About three hours later, a third round injured a policeman. Homes, cars, garages, a business, a post office, a gas pipeline, and an educational institution were damaged, the prosecutor's office said.

It said casualty figures were still being clarified, but Oleh Synehubov, the Kharkiv regional governor, said in a post on Telegram that the morning shelling injured 11 civilians, seven of them seriously.

In an interview on Ukrainian television, Lozhenko said about 600 people had been evacuated from the area in the past 10 days, more than 120 of them children.

But what is now a mandatory evacuation, he said, may yet become a forced one, "at least for families with children and for people with reduced mobility, who cannot look after themselves."

In one village in Kupiansk district, he said, it was only after Russia bombed out almost two entire streets that people started to leave. "The worst thing about evacuation is that people have been living in this war for a long time, and many of them are very used to shelling."

It was tough to tell people in Kupiansk who had adapted to the situation that they would be safer "in shelters, dormitories in other cities."

Russia denies deliberately targeting civilians in its invasion of Ukraine, which has killed thousands, uprooted millions, and destroyed cities.

** Russia says Ukrainian drones attack four regions

Russia said Ukrainian drones had attacked four separate regions in a flurry of attempted strikes on Sunday, injuring five people and forcing two of Moscow's airports to briefly divert flights.

Russia's Kursk, Rostov and Belgorod regions, all of which border Ukraine, reported attempted drone strikes, while Russia's defence ministry said it had jammed a Ukrainian drone in the Moscow region, forcing it to crash in an unpopulated area.

Russia's aviation watchdog said it had briefly halted flights to the city's Vnukovo and Domodedovo airports in response.

The Kursk region's governor said five people had been injured and a fire had broken out when a drone hit Kursk city's railway station.

Rostov's governor said no injuries or damage had occurred.

Later on Sunday, Russia's Defence Ministry said it had prevented two separate drone strikes on the Belgorod region, the border province most regularly attacked by Ukraine. The local governor said on Telegram that 12 airborne targets had been downed on the approaches to Belgorod city, before later saying only three drones had been shot down.

Ukrainian drone strikes both on border regions and on the Russian capital have become increasingly common in recent months, with repeated strikes on Moscow's financial district.

Russia said in May that two Ukrainian drones had tried to attack the Kremlin.

Ukraine typically does not comment on who is behind attacks on Russian territory, although officials have publicly expressed satisfaction over them.

 

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

Ukraine ‘running out of options’ – WaPo

Ukraine is running out of options in its counteroffensive against Russian forces, as Kiev’s time-window to gain advances is closing, the Washington Post has reported.

In an article on Sunday, the US outlet is claiming that Ukraine’s counteroffensive, which was launched in early June and was initially expected to see Kiev taking back significant territory, currently “shows signs of stalling.”

“Kiev’s advances remain isolated to a handful of villages, Russian troops are pushing forward in the north and a plan to train Ukrainian pilots on US-made F-16s is delayed,” the newspaper wrote.

Ukrainian and Western officials might be calling for patience but “the window of time for Ukraine to conduct offensive operations is limited”because of the “inhospitable weather” in the region in autumn and winter, the article reads.

“Without more advanced weapons slated to bolster the front line or fully committing forces still being held in reserve, it is unlikely that Ukraine will be able to secure a breakthrough in the counteroffensive, according to analysts,” WaPo pointed out.

The article also warned that “the inability to demonstrate decisive success on the battlefield [by Kiev forces] is stoking fears that the conflict is becoming a stalemate and international support could erode.”

Calls for Washington to cut back on its military and financial aid to Ukraine “are expected to be amplified” in the wake of the US presidential election in 2024, it added.

Earlier this week, the Post also cited a classified US intelligence report, which suggested that “Ukraine’s counteroffensive will fail to reach the key southeastern city of Melitopol,” and that the aim of severing Russia’s land bridge linking Donbass with Crimea in the southern province of Zaporozhye won’t be achieved this year.

According to Russian estimates, Ukraine has failed to make any significant gains, but lost more than 43,000 troops and nearly 5,000 pieces of heavy equipment since the launch of its counteroffensive. Kiev has so far claimed the capture of several villages, but these appear to be located some distance away from main Russian defense lines.

** US doesn’t have enough ballistic missiles for Ukraine – FT

The US is not in a position to supply Ukraine with tactical ballistic missiles in quantities that could help turn the tide in its counteroffensive, the Financial Times has reported. The British newspaper also cited several experts who question whether this type of weaponry could help Kiev achieve a major breakthrough at all.

In its article on Sunday, the FT, citing unnamed American officials, claimed that the US simply does not produce enough tactical ballistic missiles, those which Ukraine has been asking for, to “make a significant difference on the battlefield.”

In addition, according to the FT report, another consideration preventing the shipment of such projectiles is that such action could lead to a further escalation of the conflict with Russia.
Samuel Charap, a senior political scientist at Rand Corporation, told the media outlet that Ukraine’s insistence on laying its hands on long-range missiles is misplaced. The expert stressed that rockets like these are “no magic wands” and are unlikely to solve the hurdles of minefields and entrenched Russian defenses that Kiev’s forces are currently facing.

The FT quoted some US officials as warning that the extent of US military aid could shrink as the 2024 presidential election looms. A possible reelection of Republican Donald Trump adds another layer of uncertainty, given his repeated pledges to end the conflict as soon as he assumes office, the article noted.

Meanwhile, in Germany – another country which Kiev has asked for long-range missiles – a survey released by ARD-DeutschlandTrend on Friday showed that 52% of respondents are firmly opposed to such deliveries, with 36% in favor.

So far, top German officials, including Chancellor Olaf Scholz, have appeared reluctant to hand over Taurus missiles to Ukraine. The rocket boasts a range of approximately 500 kilometers (310 miles).

Back in May, the UK became the first nation to provide Kiev with this type of weaponry, sending its Storm Shadow cruise missiles, with a range of over 250 kilometers.

Last month, France followed suit, supplying Ukraine with its own localized version of the Storm Shadow, named SCALP. 

Moscow has repeatedly warned Western countries against sending weapons to Ukraine, arguing that by doing so, they are only prolonging the conflict and are also becoming engaged in a “proxy war” against Russia.

 

Reuters/RT

Many political disputes in recent years have been framed as battles between economic rationality and eruptions of irrationality that we label populism. But cognitive psychologists and economists would point out that political irrationality is hardly confined to populist insurgents. As a general matter, most political leaders are focused on practical matters and do not necessarily think deeply about the ideas they expound.

Among the early modern cartographers of political irrationality was Vilfredo Pareto, who died one hundred years ago, on August 19, 1923. Born in 1848, that year of liberal hope (and revolution) across Europe, Pareto died after witnessing the liberal order’s demise and the tragedy of World War I. Nowadays, his name pops up most often in references to “Pareto optimality” (when no further action can be taken to benefit someone without harming someone else) or the “Pareto principle” (the idea that around 80% of outcomes stem from only 20% of causes).

It is hard to imagine Pareto betting that he would be remembered for these ideas. His father, an engineer, had bequeathed him a scientific and mathematical education, and he had applied that to a managerial career that kept him busy into his 40s.

While still in business, he involved himself in liberal politics in Florence, where he became a pugnacious polemicist and learned economist. Eager for his voice to be heard, he corresponded with French economists and published in their language, always taking pains to develop contacts wherever he could. He wrote to Britain’s Liberal prime minister, William Gladstone, and Gladstone wrote back.

Among his many correspondents, the most frequent was Maffeo Pantaleoni, a career academic ten years his junior but far more accomplished when the two of them started to exchange letters. Pareto expressed appreciation for an essay by Pantaleoni, but he had spotted a few flaws in it. Instead of reacting grudgingly, Pantaleoni quickly discerned that his pen pal was a genius. He duly kept all his letters and was instrumental in Pareto’s move to academia. In 1893, Pareto succeeded Léon Walras, a founder of neoclassical economics, in his chair at the University of Lausanne.

There, Pareto embraced teaching vigorously, but his enthusiasm for economics faded. He wanted to move to sociology, because he had come to see human life as dominated by illogical actions. Having already played a considerable role in formalizing modern economics, he would soon also end up at the fountainhead of twentieth-century political science and sociology.

As a young man, Pareto saw free trade as obviously beneficial to all, and military spending as detrimental to many. Yet his own country, Italy, moved away from free trade and embarked on extravagant, brutal colonial expansions. While Pareto was quick to diagnose this behavior as the result of influence by special interests, he wondered why so many other people went along with it.

The function of political ideologies, as Pareto saw it, was to put lipstick on a pig. The fundamental nature of politics is that somebody rules and many more obey – and not even democracy can change that.

But the fact that somebody must rule does not mean that the same people rule forever. On the contrary, history is a cemetery of defunct ruling classes. When a ruling class becomes too self-referential and incapable of integrating new elements, its time is up.

Pareto did not think history and politics could be understood from the self-serving narratives of the protagonists. Rather, developments should be subjected to a scientific inquiry that goes beyond the surface of “derivations,” not stopping at the reasons people provide to explain their own behavior. Pareto understood that people’s actions stem from deep-rooted motives – what he called “residues” – which they then must rationalize. We are all constantly inventing justifications to make the non-rational appear rational.

Pareto saw “rationalism” as just another “intellectual religion,” and intellectuals as no less susceptible to pseudo-scientific creeds than anybody else. The next time you scroll through your social-media feed, consider whether all those advocating “right” causes have actually thought deeply about them. How many have actually read all the literature they cite, or engaged with opposing views? Often, what we think is contingent on our need to belong.

In politics, two “residues” (triggers of action) are of paramount importance. On the one hand, there are “rentiers” who value stability, oppose change and newcomers, and tend to live on land rent or fixed income. Pareto characterizes their “residue” as the “persistence of aggregates” – such as customs, traditions, social classes, and so forth.

On the other hand, there are “speculators” who thrive on change and the pursuit of innovation, but who also tend to manipulate government for their own ends. Pareto describes their “residue” as the “instinct for combination,” which suggests an ability to invent ever-new things.

Both rentiers and speculators are necessary for a country to thrive, but Pareto saw the second category as more likely to gain control of society, particularly when government is expanding. They are at home in large-scale, ambitious “schemes” – regardless of whether the aim is to win a war, reduce inequality, or make bureaucracy more efficient.

Pareto’s sketches of the world before WWI resemble the world we live in now. He saw financial engineering at the service of government as basically fraudulent; he ridiculed those who believed that taxes were a fee we pay for services; and he regarded inflation and public debt as instruments for “plundering” specific segments of the population.

In the long run, governments do not pay their debts, and they will tax people as much as they can. Speculators are better at surfing the wave and profiting from these tendencies, whereas rentiers (or pensioners and others on fixed incomes) are more likely to end up paying the bill.

Today more than ever, politics is about believing and belonging. Polarization has made the right and the left into ardent champions of their respective causes. Both believe that if they don’t win, the world will go to the dogs. Public intellectuals today are fully invested in this rhetoric.

Of course, Pareto himself was a man of passions, who ardently believed in liberty and tolerance. Yet he somehow forced his political realism on himself, not in the service of some fetish for neutrality, but because he saw lucidity as his ultimate duty.

 

Project Syndicate

As an entrepreneur, you're probably used to keeping yourself busy all day long, crossing items off your to-do list. 

But if you're looking to give your productivity an unexpected boost, you may want to temporarily embrace an uncomfortable feeling: boredom. 

Boredom is one of the most underutilized productivity tools in today's world.

Boredom will inevitably give you something back in return, be it a solution, a new approach, or a new way of looking at things. The only trick? You must let yourself be bored. 

Here are four key reasons why boredom is good for your productivity. 

You remember fleeting, yet important tasks

Boredom has a way of dredging up all those things you've been meaning to finish. Your mind eventually unwinds and relaxes, and a wave of to-dos floods your conscious mind. And what if no specific tasks come to mind? 

At the very least, you'll be inspired to check your aging to-do list for a refresher on what needs to be done.  

And in some cases, you may be so bored with boredom that you'll tackle something, anything, if only to occupy your mind for a while. Now would be an opportune time to get started on those taxes, file those business trip expenses, or delete files from your computer desktop. 

Often, as soon as you begin a task, you're reminded of a whole slew of other things that need your attention. And just like that, you've found several smart solutions to your boredom. 

You can create marvelous new things

You don't know what your mind can produce when it's given a chance to lay fallow. Boredom has birthed all sorts of wonderful things in the world: companies, websites, projects, books, apps, partnerships, expeditions, and beyond. Face boredom head-on and see where it leads you. 

Maybe you'll be inspired to start that blog you've been meaning to write or develop a new way to catalog that fabric. 

Perhaps you'll create a new coffee-based drink that takes the world by storm or automate an existing administrative system in your business. And maybe you'll be filled with a revolutionary concept for your next business venture. 

You build stronger relationships

Boredom can help strengthen your relationship muscles and grow your network. How? You're naturally drawn toward other people. You want to see what other people are doing at the present moment. Your curiosity is at an all-time high.  

You can use this to your advantage by taking time to genuinely connect and reconnect with others from a place of wonder. Maybe this is a time to schedule a meeting with a client you haven't spoken to in a long time. You could reconnect with a colleague or a vendor to see what they're up to. 

Another byproduct of reconnecting with others is that you might just land yourself a new project or assignment that will keep you duly occupied for the next several weeks or months. 

You gain perspective in your business

Being bored in and of itself may not seem like an exciting way to spend your time. Yet boredom allows you to fully engage in the cycle of business and life. 

It's a literal hard reset that can give you much-needed information about your current situation. That is, if you're willing to fully open your eyes and be honest with yourself. 

Boredom will force you to take a hard look at your business as a whole and help you reassess and make future plans. You can use this reflection time as motivation and inspiration to break free from a business rut. 

Think about what you'd like to accomplish in your business in the next 30, 60, and 90 days. Take a step further and think about what you'd like to see in six to 12 months. The next step is to roll up your sleeves and get to work. 

 

Inc