WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Russia launches drones, missiles on Ukraine's south and east - Ukraine's Air Force

Russia launched overnight air attacks on Ukraine's south and east using drones and possibly ballistic missiles, Ukraine's Air Force and officials said early on Tuesday.

A fire broke out at one of the "facilities" in the port of Mykolaiv late on Monday, the city mayor said. The port city provides Ukraine with access to the Black Sea.

"It's quite serious," Mayor Oleksandr Senkevich said on the Telegram messaging app of the fire, adding that more detail will come in the morning.

The southern port of Odesa and the Mykolaiv, Donetsk, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk regions were under threat of Russian drone attacks, the Air Force said on the Telegram messaging app.

It added that Russia may be using ballistic weaponry to attack the regions of Poltava, Cherkasy, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv and Kirovohrad.

Reuters could not independently verify the reports.

Air raid alerts blared in many Ukrainian regions for hours, before being called off at around 04:30 a.m. local time (0130 GMT).

Oleh Kiper, head of the Odesa region's military administration, said air defence systems there were engaged in repelling several waves of Russian drone attacks.

Serhiy Bratchuk, a spokesperson for Ukraine's Odesa military administration, said on the Telegram messaging app that details of the attack will come later in the morning.

"Thank you all for your endurance," he said.

There was no immediate comment from Russia on the attack.

Early on Monday, a blast knocked out the Crimean Bridge linking Russia to the Crimean Peninsula, which Moscow annexed from Ukraine in 2014, in what Moscow called a strike by Ukrainian sea drones and vowed retaliation

** Road traffic partially restored on Crimean Bridge - Russia deputy PM

Partial road traffic opened on one lane of the Crimean Bridge late on Monday, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Marat Khusnullin said on his Telegram channel.

"Motor transport on the Crimean Bridge has been restored in reverse mode on the most outer right lane," Khusnullin wrote on Monday.

However, ferry operations were suspended early on Tuesday, due to bad weather, Russian agencies reported, citing the Moscow-backed emergency situations ministry of Crimea.

Early on Monday, a blast knocked out the bridge linking Russia to the Crimean Peninsula, which Moscow annexed from Ukraine in 2014, in what Moscow called a strike by Ukrainian sea drones.

** Russia halts grain deal in what UN calls blow to needy people everywhere

Russia halted participation on Monday in the year-old U.N.-brokered deal that lets Ukraine export grain through the Black Sea, causing concern in poorer countries that price rises will put food out of reach.

Hours earlier, a blast knocked out Russia's bridge to Crimea in what Moscow called a strike by Ukrainian sea drones, killing two people. Moscow said it was a terrorist attack on the road bridge, a major artery for Russian troops fighting in Ukraine.

The Kremlin said there was no link between the attack and its decision to suspend the grain deal, over what it called a failure to meet its demands to implement a parallel agreement easing rules for its own food and fertilizer exports.

"Unfortunately, the part of these Black Sea agreements concerning Russia has not been implemented so far, so its effect is terminated," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters.

U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres signalled that Russia's withdrawal meant that the related pact to assist Russia's grain and fertilizer exports was also terminated.

"Today's decision by the Russian Federation will strike a blow to people in need everywhere," he told reporters.

Moscow said it would consider rejoining the grain deal if it saw "concrete results" on its demands but that its guarantees for the safety of navigation would meanwhile be revoked.

In Washington, the White House said Russia's suspension of the pact "will worsen food security and harm millions" and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken called it unconscionable.

IMPACT COULD BE PROFOUND IN AFRICA

Ukraine and Russia are some of the world's biggest exporters of grain and other foodstuffs and any interruption could drive up food prices across the globe.

Shashwat Saraf, the emergency director in East Africa for the International Rescue Committee (IRC), said the impact would be profound in Somalia, Ethiopia and Kenya, which have been facing the Horn of Africa's worst drought in decades.

"I don't know how we will survive," said Halima Hussein, a mother of five living in a crowded camp in Somalia's capital Mogadishu for people displaced by years of failed rains and violence.

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy raised the prospect of resuming grain exports without Russia's participation, suggesting Kyiv would seek Turkey's support to effectively negate the Russian de facto blockade imposed last year.

"Ukraine, the U.N. and Turkey together can ensure the operation of a food corridor and vessel inspections, Zelenskiy said in his nightly video message, saying said the world "has the opportunity to show that blackmail is not allowed ... We must all ensure security, protection from Russian madness."

RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE

Ukrainian forces have been striking Russian supply lines as it pursues a counteroffensive to drive Russian forces out of its south and east. On Monday it reported two more civilians killed by Russian forces, which it said had begun a major push in the northeast.

"For two days running, the enemy has been actively on the offensive in the Kupiansk sector in Kharkiv region. We are defending. Heavy fighting is going on and the positions of both sides change dynamically several times a day," Deputy Defence Minister Hanna Maliar, wrote on Telegram.

The armed forces said Russia had amassed a huge array of forces.

"In the Lyman-Kupiansk sector the enemy has concentrated a very powerful grouping. More than 100,000 personnel, more than 900 tanks, more than 555 artillery systems, and 370 multiple launch rocket systems," Serhiy Cherevatyi, spokesperson for the Ukrainian Armed Forces East group, said on national TV.

Reuters was not able to verify the accounts and there was no immediate comment from Russia.

The blast on the road bridge to Crimea could limit Moscow's ability to supply its troops in southern Ukraine, although Russian President Vladimir Putin said the bridge had not been used for military transports for a long time. Partial road traffic had been restored, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Marat Khusnullin said on Telegram.

Earlier, images showed part of the road bridge had come down and traffic halted in both directions, although a parallel railway bridge was still operational. Blasts were reported before dawn on the 19-km (12-mile) bridge, which Putin ordered built after seizing and annexing Crimea from Ukraine in 2014.

Putin told officials Russia would respond to the "senseless" attack.

Ukrainian media quoted unidentified officials as saying Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) had deployed maritime drones against the bridge. SBU spokesperson Artem Dekhtyarenko alluded to the idea that the agency would reveal details after Ukraine won the war, without directly claiming responsibility.

Ukraine says the bridge is illegal. It was hit by a massive explosion and fire in October.

The grain deal was hailed as preventing a global food emergency when brokered by the United Nations and Turkey last year.

Global commodity food prices rose on Monday, though the increase was limited, suggesting traders did not yet anticipate a severe supply crisis.

Western countries say Russia is trying to use its leverage over the grain deal to weaken financial sanctions, which do not apply to Russia's agricultural exports.

Russia has extended the Black Sea deal three times, despite repeated threats to quit. It suspended participation after an attack on its fleet by seaborne Ukrainian drones in October, leading to a few days when Ukraine, Turkey and the United Nations kept exports going without Moscow.

Any resumption of shipments without Russia's blessing would probably depend on insurers. Industry sources told Reuters they were studying whether to freeze their coverage.

"The (key) question is whether Russia mines the area which would effectively cease any form of cover being offered," one insurance industry source said.

 

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

No more security guarantees for Black Sea navigation – Russian FM

Russia will no longer provide security guarantees for civilian vessels traversing the formerly exempted corridor in the Black Sea, the country’s foreign ministry has announced. Earlier on Monday, the Kremlin stated that it would not extend the Black Sea grain agreement since its own food and fertilizer exports are still being blocked.  

In a statement released on Monday, the Foreign Ministry said that this latest decision “means the recall of maritime navigation security guarantees, the discontinuation of the maritime humanitarian corridor [and] the reinstatement of the ‘temporarily dangerous area’ regime in the north-western Black Sea.” Russian diplomats went on to accuse Ukraine of using the humanitarian corridor to carry out attacks on Russian targets.  

As for the Ukrainian grain shipments that were facilitated by the deal, the ministry claimed that the vast majority of those ended up in Europe, with several countries there allegedly lining their pockets.  

The statement pointed out that the whole mechanism, which was launched last summer, had ostensibly been designed to help avert famine in poorer nations.  

According to Moscow, key points in the Russia-UN memorandum, which was signed in lockstep with the Black Sea Initiative, have remained unfulfilled to date.  

As a result, the ministry explained, Russian bank transactions, insurance and logistics were effectively paralyzed, meaning that Moscow could not sell its own produce and fertilizers on the international market. In one case cited in the statement, a shipment of Russian fertilizers donated free of charge to several African countries was blocked in the EU.   

The foreign ministry concluded that in light of all these issues, the agreement no longer makes sense. 

Moscow has suggested European nations should allow Ukraine to transfer its grain via their territory and potentially face the wrath of local farmers, or take action and address Russia’s grievances.  

Should this happen, Moscow would be ready to return to the implementation of the agreement, the statement noted.  

Earlier on Monday, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov announced the termination of the deal. He also reiterated Russia’s readiness to return to the mechanism; however, he added that this would only happen if its interests were respected.  

Last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin warned that Moscow would “suspend participation in this deal,” describing the arrangement as a “one-sided game all along.”

** No mercy for terrorists – Medvedev

Terrorist attacks cannot be prevented with the help of negotiations, and only tough and decisive measures can guarantee success, former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev said on Monday.

His comments came after Moscow accused Ukraine of staging a drone attack on the Crimean Bridge, killing two people, and injuring a child.

Writing on Telegram, Medvedev, who now serves as deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, said that experience had shown that it is impossible to fight terrorists with “international sanctions, intimidation, and lecturing.”

They [terrorists] understand only the language of force. Only personal and quite inhumane methods.

Against this backdrop, the ex-president suggested targeting the perpetrators in their own homes, and “searching and liquidating their accomplices” without much regard for legal proceedings.

“The main thing is to destroy the top leadership of terrorist groups, no matter in what cracks these insects hide,” he said, adding that such policies are difficult but still possible to implement.

Medvedev's fiery post was an apparent response to a Ukrainian maritime drone attack on Monday targeting the strategic Crimean Bridge, which damaged one of the roadways and claimed the lives of a married couple from Belgorod and injured their daughter, according to Russian officials.

Responding to the incident, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova labeled Ukraine a “terrorist regime,” adding that all of Kiev’s decisions are to a large extent controlled by US and British special services and policymakers.

Ukrainian officials did not claim responsibility for the attack but cheered the incident. Mikhail Podoliak, a senior adviser to Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky, said that “any illegal structures” used by Russia to supply its troops are “necessarily short-lived... regardless of the reasons for the destruction.”

In early February, Medvedev warned Ukraine that should it conduct a strike on Crimea, it would lead to the escalation of the conflict, while Kiev would face “inevitable retaliation using weapons of any kind.” He also said that such actions would preclude any possibility of talks with the Ukrainian government.

** Russian forces wipe out Ukrainian ammo depots in LPR and DPR — top brass

Russian forces destroyed Ukrainian ammunition depots in the Lugansk and Donetsk People’s Republics (LPR and DPR) over the past day in the special military operation in Ukraine, Defense Ministry Spokesman Lieutenant-General Igor Konashenkov reported on Monday.

"Ammunition depots of the Ukrainian army’s battlegroup Liman, 53rd mechanized and 25th air assault brigades were destroyed in areas near the settlements of Novoyegorovka in the Lugansk People’s Republic, Kramatorsk and Vodyanoye in the Donetsk People’s Republic," the spokesman said.

 

Reuters/RT/Tass