Tuesday, 16 January 2024 04:42

What to know after Day 691 of Russia-Ukraine war

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WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Ukraine ground commander says his troops, now on 'active defence', can still surprise

His demeanour is dispassionate and his message is clear: Ukraine's ground forces are focused first and foremost on defence along the eastern stretch of the 1,000-km (600-mile) front under his command.

They should not be counted out, however, as an offensive force.

In an interview late last week, Colonel-General Oleksandr Syrskyi - a key figure in Kyiv's response to Russia's full-scale invasion - underlined the shifting realities on the battlefield that have tempered hopes of a major Ukrainian breakthrough.

Despite initial optimism for a much-vaunted Ukrainian summer counteroffensive, Russian defences largely held, limiting early advances to a few kilometres in some spots before Moscow's forces hit back elsewhere.

"Our goals remain unchanged: holding our positions ... exhausting the enemy by inflicting maximum losses," Syrskyi, Ukraine's number two commander, told Reuters.

The 58-year-old, wearing combat fatigues and speaking cautiously at an undisclosed location in the eastern region of Kharkiv, noted how Russia was looking to seize the initiative as the invasion neared its second anniversary.

They were pressing in multiple directions along the eastern front, Syrskyi said, with the aim of wresting full control of the industrial Donbas region despite heavy losses in men and supplies.

Russia also hopes to claw back ground it lost in the southern Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions, he added.

Ukrainian troops, for their part, are staging smaller counter-attacks in what Syrskyi described as "active defence": keeping the enemy on its toes by seeking opportunities to strike while they look to regain the initiative.

Engagements on both sides are on a smaller scale to conserve ammunition and men, he added, suggesting Russia has also learned to react and stem losses.

"Offensives at the level of a battalion are a major rarity," said Syrskyi, adding that wider use of drones has forced the change in tactic.

Ukraine says it does not have enough ammunition to sustain the desired level of attacks, and has urged Western partners to do more to supply it.

'CUNNING AND COURAGEOUS'

Syrskyi has commanded troops against combined Russian forces since 2014, when he earned his call sign "snow leopard". They fought a Moscow-backed insurgency in eastern Ukraine using "tactics that were similar to how this cat hunts," he explained.

"This creature is very careful, cunning and courageous."

He burnished his reputation in September 2022, leading a lightning counteroffensive to retake swathes of the Kharkiv region which stunned Russian forces into a retreat.

The operation capitalised on Ukraine's strengths, particularly nimble units capable of bypassing fortified positions to drive deep into enemy territory.

But Syrskyi's record as a commander is not unquestioned. Through much of early 2023, he led Ukraine's defence of the eastern city of Bakhmut, where thousands of soldiers on both sides are widely believed to have been killed in the deadliest battle of the conflict so far.

Some military analysts questioned whether fighting for a ruined city that was ultimately lost was worth so many dead and wounded. Syrskyi said Ukraine harmed Russia's war effort there by neutralising the Wagner mercenary group.

Moscow still considers him a threat, Syrskyi said, evidenced by more than one assassination attempt.

"Let's say this: we're familiar with rocket strikes," he said.

With artillery and trench warfare yielding few major advances, Syrskyi agreed with Ukraine's top commander Valery Zaluzhny that technology would likely play a major role if Kyiv wanted to win the war.

Electronic warfare has intensified over the past year, Syrskyi said, as the proliferation of drones and other guided weaponry has created more opportunities for jamming.

To gain an advantage, Ukrainian forces need higher quantities of advanced kit that works across multiple frequencies at once.

But there were still opportunities to advance by creating what Syrskyi called a "artificial advantage", just as Ukraine had done in the fall of 2022.

"No matter what, there will be certain areas that will be heavily defended, and other areas less defended," he said.

The key, Syrskyi added, was to concentrate forces at the most vulnerable point at the best time, a principle which "has not lost its relevance".

 

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

‘Time is running out’ for US aid approval – Kiev

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba has warned that “time is running out” for US lawmakers to approve additional military aid to Kiev, claiming that costs for Western nations will be far higher if Russian forces are allowed to defeat the former Soviet republic.

Providing more money and weapons to Ukraine will help the US and its NATO allies avoid a direct confrontation with Russia, Kuleba said in an ABC News interview posted on Monday. “Whatever the price of supporting Ukraine is now, the price of fixing the mess in the world if Ukraine loses will be much, much higher,” he added.

Washington, the biggest sponsor of what some US politicians have called a “proxy war” in Ukraine, has run out of money for Kiev after burning through $113 billion in congressionally approved aid packages. President Joe Biden’s latest funding request, which includes $61.4 billion in additional military and financial assistance for Ukraine, has stalled because of increasing opposition from Republican lawmakers. Senator J.D. Vance and other Republican critics have argued that Biden lacks a strategy for victory in Ukraine and is merely prolonging the bloodshed by continuing to send aid.

Kuleba claimed that a Russian victory in Ukraine would send a dangerous message to other adversaries of the US. “If the West is not able to stop Russia in Ukraine, who else is it able to stop in other parts of the world?”he asked. The diplomat vowed that Ukrainians “will fight with shovels” if they run out of weapons.

ABC noted that Russian forces have made territorial gains in recent weeks and have taken the upper hand in terms of firepower. However, Kuleba argued that the gains were “minimal,” and he denied that Russian President Vladimir Putin is now in a stronger position. “Hitler pretended to be very strong for many years, and we all know how it ended,” he said.

Asked about drone attacks in Moscow’s territory, the Ukrainian FM said it was important to show that the conflict was having an adverse impact on the Russian people. “President Putin must explain to his people why all of this is happening,” he said.

Kuleba also brushed off a report last week showing that an internal Pentagon investigation found the US had failed to properly track more than $1 billion worth of weaponry sent to Ukraine. “Everything you give to us is used for the best purpose of ending this war with Ukraine’s victory as soon as possible,” he said.

The diplomat insisted that reports of US weapons being trafficked from Ukraine to other parts of the world were “fake,” adding “So don’t believe in fakes, believe in Ukraine.”

 

Reuters/RT

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