RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

Russian missiles strike Ukrainian airbase

Drone footage has emerged of multiple Russian missiles striking Aviatorskoe, an air base of the Ukrainian armed forces in Dnepropetrovsk Region.

The footage shows several MiG-29 fighters and transport aircraft at the airfield getting caught in blasts by what appear to be cluster munitions, delivered by an Iskander-M missile. Nearby hangars and munitions depots were also struck. 

Another video shows a direct hit on the S-300 air defense system deployed near the base, which did not engage the incoming missiles. The footage was captured by observation drones.

Aviatorskoe is located just south of the city of Dnepr, over 100 kilometers from the frontline.

WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

NATO working on more air defences for Ukraine, Stoltenberg says

NATO is working to send more air defence systems to Ukraine, Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said on Thursday, adding that delays in providing such aid were harming Kyiv's efforts to resist Russia's attacks.

"We have compiled data about the different air defence systems we have in NATO and focused on the Patriot systems. And we are working with allies to ensure that they redeploy some of their systems to Ukraine," he told reporters on the sidelines of a meeting of G7 foreign ministers in Italy.

"We are working at the possibility of more Patriot batteries to Ukraine. We are in dialogue with some specific countries," Stoltenberg said, calling supply of the Patriot "critical" as it is the most advanced defence system the alliance can count on.

Stoltenberg said other defence systems might also be provided to Ukraine, including the NASALS surface-to-air missile system.

"Delays in the delivery of air defence mean that more Russian missiles will hit their targets in Ukraine. Delays in delivery of ammunition mean that Russia will be able to push more along the front line," he added.

Stoltenberg said a meeting of the NATO-Ukraine Council would take place on Friday and that Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy was expected to participate virtually.

"I am encouraged by the commitment and the determination by NATO allies to stand up for Ukraine," he told reporters, adding there were encouraging signs that the U.S. Congress might soon unlock an aid package for Ukraine worth $60.84 billion.

RT/Reuters

This was the question a friend of mine in his late 20s asked me when we woke up on April 14 to the news that Iran had launched over 300 drones and missiles towards Israel.

Apart from video war games, the young man has not seen any wars. Nigeria’s civil war ended nearly two and a half decades before he was born. Of course, you don’t have to experience war to feel it. There’s a sense, for example, in which the more recent wars in the West African subregion or the more distant ones in Northeastern Africa or Europe tend to reach us, wherever we are. 

Our televisions and phones bring the horrors of war right into our living rooms. A generation for which these smart devices have become a playground is right to be concerned that the flare-up in the Middle East could lead to something more serious. 

Apart from the war in Ukraine and the underreported conflicts in Sudan and Central Africa, no other war in recent times has riveted the world like the one in Gaza. For all the talk about the potential escalation into a wider regional conflict, it didn’t seem likely that the Israeli-Palestinian war would spread beyond shadow attacks by Hezbollah and other Iranian proxies, until Israeli air strike killed seven Iranians in the Iranian Embassy in Damascus and six Syrians.

An unusual response

That was when the threat of escalation became real. Not even during the Yom Kippur War in 1973, did Iran, a regional power, take a direct aim at Israel the way it did in its revenge attack on April 14. If half the drones and missiles aimed at Israel had hit their target, Israel would be reeling from a devastation worse than anything that happened on October 7. The world might have been a different place today.

It may be convenient to dismiss concerns about a possible outbreak of a Third World War as far-fetched, and perhaps even childish. Yet, remembering a few of the things that led to two world wars might help us not to take too much for granted. 

The immediate cause of WW1, for example, was the murder in Sarajevo of Archduke Franz Ferdinand by a Serbian nationalist, prompting the Austro-Hungarian empire, supported by Germany, to declare war on Serbia. Russia, Serbia’s ally, joined. It wasn’t long before Germany declared war on Russia and invaded France, drawing Britain into the war.

Of course, the murder of the Archduke may have been the tipping point, but a web of other factors also contributed, from the competition for territories and economic rivalries to militarism, and from the unstable alliances to the crisis in the Balkans. The Sarajevo murder was only the last straw. 

Rules-based system

God knows just how many more straws before we reach another breaking point. We like to think that we have a rules-based system; that the world is wiser today, restrained as much by competing interests as it is by the assurance of mutual destruction. 

The two world wars claimed the lives of a population nearly the size of Ethiopia’s 120m and left millions more ruined forever. And yet, since the last two years we have seen, starting from the Russia-Ukraine war, traces that the world is going mad again.  

If by the death of one man – the Archduke – the world descended into chaos, was it irrational to fear that Israel’s killing of 13 people, including seven Iranians in Iran’s embassy in Damascus and the destruction of the embassy was sufficient to spark a wider regional conflict? Has anything really changed or the world learnt anything new 110 years after WWI?

Fewer warmongers?

Some studies suggest so. One interesting study, for example, points to demographics as a good predictor of civil conflicts. The study, famously called the “youth bulge” suggests a strong correlation between countries prone to civil conflicts and those with fast-growing youth populations. So, the older the population, the theory goes, the less likely its appetite for a hot war.

It suggests that in spite of the sabre-rattling in the world’s former war-mongering capitals – Washington, Berlin, London, Paris, Tokyo and Moscow – the dominance of older, wealthier populations in these countries combined with concerns about managing their ageing populations have reduced their appetite for war. 

A few like the US, Britain and France, may press the world to the edge of a frenzy with the sort of disgraceful complicity seen in the Middle East. But just before madness finally takes over, the theory argues that the leadership in countries with older, wiser populations would dial back and make the kind of last-minute call to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that saves the world for another day.

There have also been those, like foreign affairs columnist, 

Jonathan Power, who argue that in spite of the Russia-Ukraine war, the war in Gaza, and the under-reported deadly conflicts in Sudan and Yemen, the world has never been at greater peace with itself than it is. 

Although Ukraine is not too far from becoming a meat grinder and the death toll in Gaza has topped 32,000 (minus hundreds unaccounted for) studies suggest that, thanks to the better angels of our nature, there has been a reduction in battle deaths per 100,000 in state-based conflicts since the Second World War.  

Spells of peace

War historians say that outside the Pax Romana, and the Golden Age of Islam, the post-World War II era is probably the most peaceful time in world history. 

A number of other reasons have also been given why a Third World War is improbable. It’s believed that the end of colonialism, the prioritisation of human rights, the general rise in global prosperity/literacy, and particularly the establishment of the United Nations, have accounted for the longest spell of peace in human history and might yet keep the world from descending into another catastrophic war.

Maybe – and that’s a big maybe. The safeguards of our sanity are already fraying at the edges and we may just have entered a violent new era. 

If after 77 years, Israel would still not accept the UN’s two-state solution to the problem in Palestine, preferring instead to kill over 30,000 Palestinians in pursuit of the last Hamas; if recourse to the International Criminal Court (ICC) cannot restrain Israel from the widespread carnage in Gaza; if the US, Britain and France will veto the UN’s condemnation of the attack on the Iranian Embassy in spite of the significant casualties – a crime they would not accept if it had been done to them; if the US keeps showing by its conduct that might is right, then the world is not too far from another world war.

Global institutions expected to keep the fragile balance for peace have almost all broken down, and all five veto-wielding members of the UN have gone rogue: Russia in Ukraine; China in Taiwan; and the US, Britain and France in the Middle East, and indeed anywhere else they please in pursuit of their strategic interests.

To continue to ignore the impotence of and disdain for the global institutions supposed to preserve peace and still believe that nothing would happen, is foolish and dangerous.

** Ishiekwene is Editor-In-Chief of LEADERSHIP

Plant just a few trees. Don't be afraid to reject your own ideas. Humble brag in a journal.

This is some of the advice we heard last week when about 1,500 people who try to make our planet a better place – from scientists and philanthropists to activists and entrepreneurs – descended on Oxford, England. In big forums and little coffee shops, they discussed what to do about some of the world's biggest problems and swapped advice from their work on the front lines. The Skoll World Forum brought these people together in a bid to "accelerate innovative solutions."

We pulled a few of the participants aside and asked for their wisdom. We wanted to know their advice for the next generation of altruists. And with the "keep calm and carry on" motto of England in mind, we also asked what keeps them going when things get tough.

Their answers have been edited for length and clarity

Zolelwa Sifumba: Be honest and vulnerable

Advice to those just starting out: Look at the pain that brought you [to your work] – it could be your own pain, it could be pain of people around you, pain that you witnessed. Look at that pain and don't ignore it.

I am someone who wasn't allowed to express themselves growing up. But that changed when I contracted multidrug-resistant tuberculosis as a medical student. They took us to a TB hospital, but when we got there they didn't give us protection [such as a mask since TB can be transmitted through airborne particles]. So it was from there that I learned that my health and my wellness isn't a priority in the health system. But after I spoke to a second year group [of medical students], they told the faculty that if you don't protect us, we're not going anywhere. And so that was a powerful example of what my words could do.

Getting TB can be deadly, but it also saved my life because I finally got to use my voice. And I've never stopped talking. I've never stopped. And it really feels good to be honest and to be vulnerable.

Julian Gerhart: Humble brag in a journal

How to 'keep calm and carry on': I'm going to be practical because entrepreneurs love specific steps and takeaways. So what I do is that I have a journal and I write my small successes in that journal. And it could be anything. It could be one student coming up after our workshop and telling us he loved the workshop. A small thing, but it's very heartwarming.

When I feel bad, when I feel depressed, when things are not going my way and I start scrolling [through my journal], that's how I calm myself very quickly. You start to realize how much impact you have. And it sounds pretty obvious but when you feel depressed your mind kind of forgets about positive things. If I didn't write these things down, if I didn't codify them, my mind would just forget them. So it's very important to celebrate these things, to document them.

Irma Sitompul: Plant a tiny forest – or do anything that's small to boost your odds of success

Advice to those just starting out: When there's a system that needs to be transformed, reformed, reshaped, it can take decades, sometimes generations. When we know that from the beginning, it will help prevent us from getting burnt out. So my advice would be to identify some small things, some small objectives that you can really focus on.

I wanted to build more forest in my homeland, Indonesia. And I started doing it in 2020 with my husband. I plant mini-forests, tiny forests – sometimes just 4 by 4 square meters. Now, we've already planted 3,000 trees on my land, on the community's land, on other peoples' land and on businesses' land. It's been a great way to reforest our urban areas because we don't need a huge piece of land. I started to take action, and I can see the results within my lifetime.

Rana Dajani: Ask yourself 'what can I do now?'

Advice to those just starting out: I'm a biologist. I have to talk about science [to give advice]. Every human being is unique. Nobody's DNA is like anyone else who has ever lived, who lives today or will live in the future. So you're special.

And because you are special, you have a special perspective on life. So whatever bothers you, go try to find a solution yourself. Trust your gut feeling. And don't worry about changing the world. Think small. It's those small steps that make a difference.

How to 'keep calm and carry on': I'm an optimist. My husband says I see an ocean in a drop of water. [When confronting a challenge,] I think: "What can I do?" and I draw this from my religion as a Muslim. Islam tells me: It doesn't matter what happens in the end. What matters is what you do now. And so I start thinking, "What can I do now?" And that gives me a purpose. And because I have a purpose, I get into action. And because I'm getting into action, it gives me hope. There's a saying: If you can imagine it, then it can happen. And so I do that. And the other thing is I reach out to people. Nobody can solve anything alone. It's about collective humanity.

Gabriel Marmentini: Consistency is more valuable than a really high IQ

Advice to those just starting out: I am hiring people who are 18 or 20 years old and the way they think is different from [my way of thinking] and I'm just 31. The younger generation wants results tomorrow. They are so immediate. They want things now. I see them changing clothes, changing relationships, changing work. But this is a real challenge for people that want to build things that are going to last. You need to have discipline and put in effort. So why have I been successful? It's because I've been disciplined for nine years. It is not because my mind is illuminated or my IQ is really high. It's not. It's just that I do things consistently. And I know you're not going to find all the answers with ChatGPT or TikTok.

Bernard Chiira: Don't be afraid to change your mind

Advice to those just starting out: I mentor entrepreneurs, and I would say be very open to learning and be flexible to actually changing your mind. You may end up building a completely different solution to what you had thought was the solution. [Entrepreneurs] will naturally have a bias to love their ideas. And sometimes it can be very challenging to kill it and say, "I was wrong. It's not going to work." It can be heart-wrecking but, remember, the good thing is that entrepreneurs are like idea factories. You can always get more ideas.

NPR

Commercial banks, grappling with the Central Bank of Nigeria's (CBN) monetary tightening measures aimed at curbing persistent inflation, find themselves constrained in extending credit to bolster the faltering economy.

As per analysis by Daily Trust, mandatory reserve deposits with the central bank surged by 70.37 percent to N17.26 trillion by December 2023, up from N10.13 trillion the previous year. This surge in the Cash Reserve Requirement (CRR) compels banks to park a growing portion of local currency deposits with the central bank, limiting their lending capacity as these reserves are only accessible for intervention purposes.

Notably, Zenith Bank leads with N3.90 trillion in mandatory reserve deposits, followed by Access Bank with N3.10 trillion, and other major players holding substantial amounts, indicative of the profound impact of the CRR on the banking sector.

With Nigeria's CRR standing at 45 percent, among the highest globally, the stringent liquidity conditions further intensified with the CBN's revision of the loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) from 65 percent to 50 percent to align with the ongoing monetary tightening.

In a circular titled "Re: Regulatory Measures to Improve Lending to the Sector of the Nigerian Economy," the CBN, through its acting director of the banking supervision department, Adetona Adedeji, announced this adjustment, emphasizing the need for banks to adhere to the revised LDR to stimulate lending.

However, analysts at KPMG caution that these elevated rates could impede banks' ability to support the economy's growth aspirations, casting doubt on the feasibility of government economic objectives.

Given the challenging liquidity environment, achieving desired economic growth becomes increasingly arduous, particularly as small businesses, reliant on affordable loans, face closures while new ventures struggle to emerge. Afrinvest analysts see the reduction in LDR as a reprieve for banks, allowing them to navigate the regulatory landscape while optimizing asset utilization without undue risk.

However, the broader impact of these policies on economic recovery remains a subject of scrutiny and concern.

The management of the Nigerian Education Loan Fund (NELFUND) led by its Managing Director, Akintunde Sawyerr, has shed light on why students from private institutions and incarcerated individuals are excluded from the upcoming student loan fund launch. Addressing journalists at UNILAG, Sawyerr emphasized the fund's focus on aiding "indigent" students.

He clarified that private institution attendees aren't deemed financially disadvantaged and stressed the fund's aim at redistributing wealth to deserving candidates, monitored via mechanisms like BVN verification.

Regarding inmates pursuing education, Sawyerr cited challenges in loan recovery from individuals serving lengthy sentences.

Executing a transparent selection process, NELFUND plans to disburse funds directly to institutions and students, considering factors like tuition and geography.

Sawyerr disclosed plans to analyze applicant data and outlined requirements, anticipating loan disbursement from one percent of the gross revenue of Federal Inland Revenue Service’s revenue.

The student loan initiative stems from the Access to Higher Education Act, 2023, entrusting NELFUND with loan administration and recovery.

An influential global body has forecast Russia's economy will grow faster than all of the world's advanced economies, including the US, this year.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects Russia to grow 3.2% this year, significantly more than the UK, France and Germany.

Oil exports have "held steady" and government spending has "remained high" contributing to growth, the IMF said.

Overall, it said the world economy had been "remarkably resilient"

"Despite many gloomy predictions, the world avoided a recession, the banking system proved largely resilient, and major emerging market economies did not suffer sudden stops," the IMF said.

The IMF is an international organisation with 190 member countries. They are used by businesses to help plan where to invest, and by central banks, such as the Bank of England to guide its decisions on interest rates.

The group says that the forecasts it makes for growth the following year in most advanced economies, more often than not, have been within about 1.5 percentage points of what actually happens.

Despite the Kremlin being sanctioned over its invasion of Ukraine, the IMF upgraded its January predictions for the Russian economy this year, and said while growth would be lower in 2025, it would be still be higher than previously expected at 1.8%.

Investments from corporate and state owned enterprises and "robustness in private consumption" within Russia had promoted growth alongside strong exports of oil, according to Petya Koeva Brooks, deputy director at the IMF.

Russia is one of the world's biggest oil exporters and in February, the BBC revealed millions of barrels of fuel made from Russian oil were still being imported to the UK despite sanctions.

Away from Russia, the IMF downgraded its forecasts across Europe and for the UK this year, predicting 0.5% growth this year, making the UK the second weakest performer across the G7 group of advanced economies, behind Germany.

The G7 also includes France, Italy, Japan, Canada and the US.

Growth is set to improve to 1.5% in 2025, putting the UK among the top three best performers in the G7, according to the IMF.

However, the IMF said that interest rates in the UK will remain higher than other advanced nations, close to 4% until 2029.

The group expects the UK to have the highest inflation of any G7 economy in 2023 and 2024.

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt said the IMF's figures showed that the UK economy was turning a corner.

"Inflation in 2024 is predicted to be 1.2% lower than before, and over the next six years we are projected to grow faster than large European economies such as Germany or France - both of which have had significantly larger downgrades to short-term growth than the UK," he said.

Conflict in the Middle East

Economists at the IMF warned that if the Israel-Hamas conflict escalates further in the Middle East it could lead to rising food and energy prices around the world.

Continued attacks on ships in the Red Sea and the ongoing war in Ukraine could also affect the so far "remarkably resilient" global economy, it said.

A potential spike in food, energy and transport costs would see lower-income countries hardest hit, it added.

BBC

At least 10 passengers in a commercial vehicle have reportedly died after the automobile encountered an improvised explosive devise (IED) planted at a roadside in Borno state.

Zagazola Makama, a counter-insurgency publication focused on Lake Chad region, said the incident occurred along Baga road in Kukawa LGA of Borno on Wednesday.

The publication said 20 other persons sustained injuries.

“The IED was believed to have been laid for the troops of Sector 3 Operation Hadin Kai, around the Mosquito camp by the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP),” Makama said.

The publication added that those who sustained injuries were taken to a healthcare facility in Monguno for medical attention.

ISWAP is a faction of the Boko Haram terrorist group that broke away after a leadership dispute.

The group has been involved in various violent activities, including attacks on citizens, security forces, and kidnapping among other criminal operations in the north-east, north-west and north-central parts of the country.

The Cable

Hezbollah launches missiles and drones at northern Israel, wounding 14 Israeli soldiers

Lebanon's Hezbollah said on Wednesday it launched missiles and drones at a military facility in northern Israel in retaliation for Israeli strikes that killed Hezbollah members, an incident that the Israeli military said left 14 soldiers wounded.

The military said six of the soldiers were in serious condition. It said it "struck the sources of fire" after identifying several anti-tank missile and drone launches from Lebanon towards the Bedouin village of Arab al-Aramshe.

The Israeli Ynet news site said the soldiers were in a community centre in the village.

On Tuesday, Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon killed three people, including a Hezbollah field commander, Lebanese security sources said.

Israeli forces and Lebanon's armed group Hezbollah have been exchanging fire for over six months in parallel to the Gaza war, in the most serious hostilities since they fought a major war in 2006.

Later on Wednesday, Israel's air force said its fighter jets struck Hezbollah infrastructure north of Baalbek in eastern Lebanon, reaching beyond the southern border region where Israel has focused most of its strikes.

The fighting has fuelled concern about the risk of further escalation. Those concerns have mounted following Iran's retaliatory attack on Israel, with hundreds of explosive drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles launched on Saturday night, to which Israeli officials have vowed to respond.

At least 370 Lebanese, including more than 240 Hezbollah fighters and 68 civilians, have been killed in the fighting according to a Reuters tally. Eighteen Israelis, including soldiers and civilians, have been killed.

Reuters

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

Members must choose Ukraine aid over own defense – NATO boss

Ukraine’s backers should prioritize donating weapons to Kiev over their own defense capabilities, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said on Wednesday. 

“A part of the important effort we are now making across the NATO alliance to step up our delivery of air defense systems to Ukraine,”Stoltenberg told reporters during a press conference in Brussels. 

“But Ukraine needs even more. That is why if allies face a choice between meeting NATO capability targets and providing more aid to Ukraine, my message is clear: send more to Ukraine.”

Stoltenberg pointed to Denmark as “a strong example” for promising in February to donate all of its artillery to Kiev. He praised Denmark and the Netherlands for their plans to provide the F-16 aircraft, adding that he was “encouraged” by the news that the US Congress is expected soon to vote for additional aid to Ukraine after months of delay.

The NATO chief’s appeal comes at a time when member states are struggling to deliver sufficient amounts of weapons to Ukraine without depleting their own stocks and compromising security. Officials in Kiev are blaming ammunition shortages for last year’s failed counteroffensive, as well as recent battlefield losses.

Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky has sharply criticized Germany for refusing to donate its Taurus air-launched cruise missiles and US Republicans for blocking the $61 billion military aid bill sought by President Joe Biden. “If Congress doesn’t help Ukraine, Ukraine will lose the war,” Zelensky warned this month.

Berlin has recently agreed to supply another US-made Patriot air defense system to Kiev. It refused to reverse the decision on Taurus, however, arguing that sending the missiles would require German personnel on the ground.

US House Speaker Mike Johnson, meanwhile, announced that he will put the Ukraine aid bill to the vote on Saturday. The legislation was previously stalled due to the bitter quarrels between Democrats and Republicans over immigration and border security.

Russia, for its part, has insisted that the deliveries of foreign weapons will lead to more escalation, but will not change the course of the conflict. “The West continues to pump the Zelensky regime with weapons and is becoming an accomplice to its horrific crimes,”Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said in January.

WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Zelenskiy: Ukrainian military attacked Russian airfield in occupied Crimea

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Wednesday that the Ukrainian military had attacked a large Russian airfield in occupied Crimea and thanked his top military commander for staging the strike.

"Today, the Ukrainian armed forces carried out a precise strike on the occupiers in Dzhankoi, on an airfield," Zelenskiy said in his nightly video address.

"Thank you, warriors. Thank you for your accuracy. Thank you to commander-in-chief (Oleksandr) Syrskyi for organising this operation."

The president expressed thanks to servicemen staging "special operations, especially important operations, extremely significant ones that destroy the equipment of the Russian army, their combat infrastructure".

Dzhankoi lies in the northern part of the Crimea peninsula, seized and annexed by Russia in 2014. Unofficial sources in both Ukraine and Russia had earlier reported a series of explosions at the base.

RT/Reuters

Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun's April 3rd 2024 presentation at the Lagos Business School Breakfast Club titled 'Reconstructing the economy for growth, investment and climate resilience development' focused mainly on cost cutting through removal of subsidies, extreme high interest rates to curb inflation and attract foreign exchange, and agriculture, which don't address fundamentals of real economic growth. In terms of economic empowering infrastructure, the N15 trillion Coastal Highway also reveals a lot of economic misconceptions that need to be cleared.

Though it is debatable whether subsidies and floating of Naira have really been stopped, but even if we accept that there are no policy reversals for argument sake, cost minimization is just one part of the economic optimization equation which must be balanced with production maximization. Though social welfarism backs cost optimization, instead of the neo-liberal economic focus on cost minimization, either of the two still requires production maximization. How do we pay for the costs without taxing the poor for revenue generation? What can Nigeria do to stimulate real economic production and growth?

The continued sixty year focus on agricultural production is good, but is not enough to provide a high return on investment to pay for costs and, most important, to absorb the millions of unemployed. Nigeria’s agriculture which ranks as the world's fifth in Agriculture Value Added at $111.97 billion (World Bank 2022 report), and accounts for 38% of employment and 24% of national income, coupled with the Food, Tobacco and Beverages, textiles and cement manufacturing subsectors that account for 76% of manufacturing, are approaching diminishing returns, so there is an obvious need for new or other industries that can provide the highest return on investment and greatest income and employment multipliers in the economy.

Railways and solar energy are the two most important industries that can stimulate economic growth, industrialization and employment. Railways can provide more income and returns on investment than crude oil. Railways provide the highest return on investment in the USA at 50.93%, with real estate second at 41% (Comparisun). The USA railway revenue in 2020 was $68.8 billion compared to $20.43 billion that Nigeria made from crude oil same year.

It can be argued USA has a larger land and population than Nigeria, but the German railway operator Deutsche Bahn made $48.12bn, followed by the French railway operator, SNCF that made $38.43bn, both of whose combined land size (357,592 km² plus 551,695 km²) and population (83.8 m plus 67.97m) are less than that of Nigeria’s 923,768 km² with 218m population. So with the country’s land size and population, railways can bring nearly $100 billion yearly.

Unfortunately, the Tinubu government has a myopic view of railways being just a means of transport. This is reflected in their plan to build a Coastal Highway and train from Lagos to Calabar, mostly over water and swamps, bypassing inland towns and economic nodes along the way, instead of along the East-West Road connecting dozens of towns and population centers. It's like building a road/railway flyover from Lagos to Sokoto, towns like Abeokuta, Oshogbo, Ilorin won't be what they are today.

Every industrialized nation stimulated its heavy manufacturing with railways. Though the USA built its initial railways to bring its cotton production to the coast for export to Europe, being the largest production unit of iron and chemicals/plastics, it stimulated their local production to build and maintain the railway system. Just like roads stimulate mechanics, vulcanizers, food vendors along their routes, so does railways stimulate various multiplier effects in towns and stops along the way. Currently, Iron and Steel, Plastic and Rubber, Electrical and Electronics combined contribution is a mere 1.6% of the economy which railways can increase tenfold.  

Instead of piecemeal railways built by nepotistic friends and family, it should be approached systematically, and the builders can only be China, or our army, being part of an industrial military complex. We have two North-South railways, what is required is to build a grid system with three East-West railways - Lagos-Calabar, Ilorin-Yola and Sokoto-Maiduguri, thereby creating 9 zones that states and private investors would build feeder routes to every corner. For every job or Naira spent on railways, it will create twenty fold jobs and income in other industries. These income and employment multiplier effects will be the growth drivers of agriculture, services, logistics, engine making, plastics, electricity and other industries.

Solar energy is also an industry with various multiplier effects, in addition to being a source of energy. Covering huge parcels of land in the arid North will reverse deforestation and desert encroachment, as the panels reduce the amount of direct sunlight and heat on the land, thereby stimulating the growth of vegetables under the panels. The covering of 10% of the core North with solar panels will not only fulfill Nigeria's electricity needs, but will provide income and employment to the poverty stricken area through a massive vegetable industry. If Nigeria is to compete globally, solar energy will be its foremost comparative energy production advantage.

The third most important sector that needs government focus is a massive real estate development. Many of us that travel to Europe and USA are marvelled by the sprawling suburbia of neat rows of identical residential homes don't know that they were built during the 1950s Reconstruction Era, when governments provided land and finance to rebuild after the second world war. Rather than taking lands for ethnic focused cattle colonies, the government should enable massive real estate development by creating a mortgage or housing subsidies program like Obafemi Awolowo did in Bodija, Ibadan. Real estate is the number one creator of individual wealth, and to economically empower the masses, there must be more political will on this industry than just political pep talk on breakfast shows.

These three sectors will provide real economic growth instead of tinkering with economic indices that favor only equity investors and rich speculators. It is a good thing the government has listened to advice to stop neo-liberal economic policies of cost minimization (subsidy removal and floating Naira), and we hope they will take up this advice to maximize the right production, not uneconomic projects like coastal Highway and Railways nor taxing the poor for revenue generation.

** Justice Faloye, Afenifere Deputy Publicity Secretary, President ASHE Foundation think tank is an Economist and author, The Blackworld Evolution to Revolution.