Ten years ago, Eugene Fama and Robert J. Shiller were awarded the Nobel Prize in Economics (together with Lars Peter Hansen) “for their empirical analysis of asset prices.” Fama and Shiller, however, hold diametrically opposing views on asset-price movements, from what drives the decisions of economic actors to whether markets are inherently efficient. Fifteen years after the global economic crisis, it is a disagreement worth revisiting.

Fama is a member of the Chicago School of economics, both literally – he is a professor at the Booth School of Business – and intellectually. The Chicago School holds that economic actors are rational utility-maximizing agents, able to deploy infinite cognitive capacity and complete information at all times, in order to make decisions that will best serve their material interests. With his highly influential “efficient market hypothesis,” Fama takes this further, positing that prices almost immediately incorporate all available information about future values, and thus accurately reflect economic fundamentals.

Shiller, a Yale-based behavioral economist, could not disagree more. Taking a Keynesian view of markets, he argues that, in markets shaped by “animal spirits,” individual actors have irrational tendencies, which can be amplified by the collective mood of the market. This sometimes results in irrational and suboptimal outcomes, such as speculative asset bubbles.

The Nobel committee justified the joint award by differentiating the time horizons to which the theories of Fama and Shiller apply. Fama’s scholarship suggests that asset prices are extremely difficult to forecast in the short run (making financial markets difficult to game), because they incorporate new information very quickly, whereas Shiller’s work establishes that they are more predictable in the long run (making finance amenable to human manipulation).

Shiller, for one, was not convinced. In his view, even Fama’s own research shows that markets are not efficient. But Fama’s loyalties to the laissez-faire Chicago School run deep. As Shiller put it, “It’s like being a Catholic priest and then discovering that God doesn’t exist or something you can’t deal with so you’ve got to somehow rationalize it.”

So, does God exist? Are markets endowed with some divine power that guarantees efficient outcomes? Or do mere mortals have to do the hard work of ensuring the proper functioning of their economic systems and institutions? To answer these questions, we must venture into what I call the “twilight zone of economics,” the as yet ill-defined realm of economics at the interface of micro and macro.

The orthodox Chicago School view adheres to so-called methodological individualism: economic actors make their utility-maximizing decisions entirely independently of one another and of social forces, though the collective result serves the public interest. But how? While the pooling of individual information contributes to more accurate pricing and, thus, better resource-allocation decisions, the mechanism that transforms countless isolated, self-interested micro-level decisions into broadly shared benefits is as clearly defined as alchemy. Beyond Adam Smith’s “invisible hand,” an account of how the rationality of markets exceeds that of its individual actors remains out of view.

Shiller, by contrast, offers a real analysis of the relationship between micro decisions and macro outcomes. According to his research, asset pricing typically resembles a kind of Keynesian beauty contest in which participants are asked to select the six prettiest faces from a hundred headshots, knowing that the person whose selections best align with the most popular picks overall will win a prize. In this context, it is rational for participants to ignore personal preference and choose the faces they believe others will select.

Similar psychological forces, Shiller explains, shape the prices of assets, from tech stocks to real estate. Back in 2005, just a couple of years before a housing-price crash in the United States triggered the 2008 global financial crisis, Shiller warned that “irrational exuberance” was fueling a housing bubble – and that it was destined to end badly. (Compare this with Fama’s explanation of that crisis: “Economics is not very good at explaining swings in economic activity.”)

As Shiller explains in his more recent work, narratives are the key factor. Stories can cause humans to behave in all manner of ways, and if believed widely enough, they can shape economic outcomes. That is why it is essential to consider individual economic actors’ cognitive and emotional qualities and the ways these actors interact with one another. Group psychology is analytically distinct from individual decision-making, and in modern economies, nobody decides anything in a vacuum.

While Fama says that humans can’t beat markets, Shiller insists that it’s humans who make markets, which means that humans can strive to improve their functioning. Which claim you believe has important implications for economic theory and for financial regulation – from how much is appropriate to whether central banks should attempt to identify and pop price bubbles. If the Chicago School’s market-shaping God does not exist, we should be treating the economy as a socially constructed institution, created by and for humans, with all our biases, limitations, morals, and values.

In his Nobel address, Shiller explained that the overarching theme of his work is that we need to “democratize and humanize finance.” If we are to avoid a repeat of the 2008 global economic crisis – with all the suffering it wrought – that is exactly what we must do. To do it well, we must not be afraid to enter the economic twilight zone. Understanding markets requires understanding human social dynamics.

Project Syndicate

Communicating effectively is not just a skill it's a strategic advantage. In my journey as a public speaker, I'm deeply committed to empowering individuals and organizations, leveraging my extensive experience as a successful entrepreneur and leader to share invaluable insights rooted in real-world challenges and triumphs.

As entrepreneurs, our capacity to articulate ideas, influence stakeholders, and command attention directly impacts our business and career trajectory. The journey to becoming a confident and compelling speaker is a continuous process, we are never done improving. In this article, we explore the essential strategies to develop your speaking and presentation skills as an entrepreneur. By embracing these key takeaways, you'll not only become a more adept communicator but also a more confident leader capable of capturing the respect and attention of any audience.

Prepare with precision.

Preparation is your stronghold, and yes, this is an obvious one, but it is also the leading cause of failed presentations. Beyond knowing your facts, delve into the nuances. Practice articulating your content, refine the flow, and anticipate questions. Avoid the pitfall of treating the real presentation as your first run; rehearse extensively. Speaking aloud, even if it means talking to yourself over and over again, minimizes unforeseen errors that dent your confidence. Why? Because a minor slip can shatter your composure. In order to prepare correctly, you need to allocate time within your content creation process for thorough review and practice sessions.

Arrive early, connect early.

it's a strategic move that lays the groundwork for a successful presentation. By arriving early, you not only sidestep the negative label of tardiness but also gain a precious opportunity to foster meaningful connections with your audience. These moments preceding the presentation aren't simply idle chatter; they serve as a platform to cultivate rapport and understanding. Engaging in conversations about their experiences, and families, or even complimenting their attire isn't just a formality--it's a deliberate effort to forge a connection. This early interaction sets the tone for a positive perception, potentially shaping the audience's receptiveness to your message and establishing a foundation of mutual respect and interest.

Craft concise narratives.

Respect your audience's time by offering a compact yet comprehensive presentation. Highlight essentials, steering clear of unnecessary details. Reserve ample room for an interactive dialogue by keeping your content high-level. Silence isn't your adversary; embrace moments to gather thoughts rather than filling the void with unnecessary filler. An efficient pitch allows for a more engaging and fruitful discussion period, which is where the real nitty gritty details can emerge.

Be dynamic.

Captivate your audience by infusing energy into your delivery. Utilize varied tones, gestures, and pacing to underscore key points. Injecting personality into your presentation sustains attention and reinforces your message. Visual aids, anecdotes, or interactive elements can further invigorate your content, making it memorable and impactful. Ensuring your energy and passion for the subject shines through will also keep you engaged and present in the moment which helps you to connect with your audience. 

Conclude with a call to action.

End on a high note. Summarize key takeaways, reinforcing your central message. Invite questions, encourage participation, and conclude with a compelling call to action. Leave a lasting impression by emphasizing the significance of your presentation and its potential impact. Don't leave them wanting more! Ensure there is an opportunity for discussion and an easy way for everyone in the room to get their questions answered. Ending with a clear conclusion helps your presentation to look and feel polished, so focus on not running out of steam at the end but maintaining the level of quality all the way through the end. 

Mastering the art of commanding attention and respect through presentations isn't an overnight feat. Embrace continual refinement and these actionable strategies to transform into a persuasive and respected communicator. Remember, there's a reason you are in this room, with these people, making this pitch. I highly doubt you got here on pure luck. You deserve their time and this space, so conquer it.

Inc

As many Nigerians groan in poverty due to the rising cost of living occasioned by unprecedented inflation, Vice-President Kashim Shettima has said the poor in the country are angry with government officials and other members of the elite, who constitute the minority.

The vice-president said this at the graduation ceremony of the Executive Intelligence Management Course 16 participants from different security agencies and nominees of state governments in Abuja on Saturday. The event was organised by the National Institute for Security Studies.

This is the first time a senior government official is admitting the biting hardship in the country, which has been aggravated since President Bola Tinubu took over the reins of government on May 29, 2023.

In his inauguration speech, the President had declared that subsidy on petrol was gone for good, and hours after that statement, the pump price of petrol jumped from N238-N263 per litre to a minimum of N500. It currently sells for between N580 and N615.

As Nigerians were adjusting to the new reality and the attendant increase in the prices of goods and services, including transport fares, the Federal Government announced the decision to allow the exchange rate of the naira to major international currencies float and be determined by demand and supply.

That decision immediately led to a significant depreciation of the local currency, which peaked at N465.07 against the United States dollar just weeks before Tinubu’s inauguration. The scarcity of dollars and other major international currencies led the naira to climb to over 1,000 against the greenback.

Just on Friday, the naira fell to an all-time low of N1,099.05/$ at the official Investor and Exporter forex window to cap what had been a turbulent couple of months for the national currency.

This signifies a 30.36 per cent decline from its closing rate of N843.07/$ according to data from the FMDQ Securities Exchange. That was the lowest rate that the naira had closed since the Central Bank of Nigeria moved to adopt the I&E window as the official trading channel for the currency.

That day, the currency began trading at N844.10/$ before closing at N1,099.05/$. Since June, the naira has lost more than 40 per cent of its value, adding to inflationary pressure in the country.

Many families risk celebrating the approaching Christmas and New Year in hardship due to the hike in the prices of goods and services, and are devising life-changing ways to cut costs.

Shettima, however, said on Saturday, “All of us here belong to a tiny segment of the Nigerian population. And you don’t need a soothsayer to tell you that the poor are angry with us. Go to the slums and mingle with the poor. I am a native of Maiduguri (Borno State Capital). Anytime a rich man brought a new car to his house, it (the house) used to be a place of pilgrimage.

“People (used to) go and see not out of anger, but out of admiration. But now, as we cruise around in our bulletproof cars, one will see contempt in the eyes of the poor. We have to improve the quality of governance. And what we have is a tiny window of not more than 10 to 20 years. Let’s improve the quality of governance.”

He also noted that creating jobs and giving hope to the populace would help curb insecurity in the country.

The VP added, “Let’s create jobs; let’s give hope to the populace. And once we create jobs, all this madness of insecurity will disappear. There won’t be Boko Haram and banditry if this is done, especially for us from the North. We can blame the bandits, but we in leadership positions owe it to posterity to address this.

“They (the poor) are the most neglected segment of our society. You can hardly differentiate between them and their animals. Even the animals they rear belong to those in the city. So, there have to be kinetic and non-kinetic solutions to all the problems. Be it the IPOB agitation in the South-East; be it the challenges in the South-South; be it Boko Haram or rural banditry in the North-East, North-West, and North-Central.”

He, however, urged the citizens to be patient with the President and support his efforts to reposition the country.

“I want to ask you to give the President the benefit of the doubt. Let us support you. Let us rally around and be reassured that he is determined to redefine the meaning and concept of modern leadership, and is ever ready to reposition the Nigerian nation. But without the support of you and I, he can’t do much,” the VP said.

He berated those seeking to secede from the country, noting that they “hardly think beyond their noses.”

Shettima said, “It’s easy to predict failure. But what about success, what is the end result of failure? It is destruction. Just two million Syrians knocking on the doors of Europe, and they caused Brexit. They caused the emergence of Trump in America. So, how do you proceed? Those people who are agitating for the breakup of this nation, or the implosion of this country, they hardly think beyond their noses.

“They don’t think beyond the depth of their pockets. Surviving their way on the growth of the innocent and the agonies of our people will not do us any good.“

Punch

Federal government has exempted the importation of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and its equipment from the payment of customs duty and value-added tax (VAT).

The move is expected to result in a drop in the cost of cooking gas in the country.

The ministry of finance disclosed this in a letter (dated November 28, 2023) to the special adviser to the president on energy; the comptroller-general of the Nigeria Customs Service (NCS); and the chairman of the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS).

The letter was signed by Wale Edun, the minister of finance and coordinating minister of the economy.

According to the ministry, the exemption aligns with President Bola Tinubu’s commitment to enhance Nigeria’s investment climate, and promote clean cooking practices.

“In line with Tinubu’s commitment to improving the investment climate in Nigeria, increasing the supply of LPG to meet local demand, reducing market prices and promoting clean cooking practices, I hereby affirm Presidential directive dated July 29, 2022, with reference number PRES/88/MPR/99,” the letter reads.

“Accordingly, the importation of LPG utilizing HS Codes 2711.12.00.00, 2711.13.00.00 and 2711.19.00.00 is exempt from Import Duty and Value-Added Tax. Consequently, the Importation of LPG shall incur a 0% duty rate and 0% VAT rate, effective immediately.”

The ministry instructed the NCS and FIRS to comply with the directive pending its official gazetting.

Also, the ministry directed the NCS to comply with the presidential directive, dated July 29, 2022, and withdraw all debit notes issued to petroleum marketers who have imported LPG “using codes 2711.1.2.00.00 and 2711.13.00.00 from August 26, 2019, to the present date”. 

Other items exempted from VAT and duty payment are LPG cylinders, LPG cascades, gas leak detectors, steel pipes, steel valves and fittings, LPG dispensers, gas generators, LPG trucks, among others.

Olu Verheijen, the special adviser to the president on energy, said the decision was prompted after consultations with stakeholders revealed that the lack of a clear fiscal directive has hindered investments in the LPG sector.

She spoke while informing the chairman of the Nigerian Alliance for Clean Cooking of the exemptions in a separate letter, dated November 30, 2023.

Verheijen said the paucity of investment led to a rise in the prices of cooking gas and an uptick in the use of “unhealthy fuels such as kerosene”.

In 2019, the FG had removed VAT on LPG in Nigeria.

However, reintroducing the tax in 2021, the FG commencedimplementation of the 7.5 percent tax on imported LPG — exempting locally manufactured gas.

The Cable

Israel presses on with its Gaza offensive after US veto derails Security Council efforts to halt war

Israel’s military pushed ahead with its punishing air and ground offensive in Gaza on Saturday, bolstered by a U.S. veto derailing U.N. Security Council efforts to end the war and word that an emergency sale of $106 million worth of tank ammunition had been approved by Washington.

Unable to leave Gaza, a territory 25 miles (40 kilometers) long by about 7 miles (11 kilometers) wide, more than 2 million Palestinians faced more bombardment Saturday, even in areas that Israel had described as safe zones.

The sale of nearly 14,000 rounds of tank ammunition was announced a day after the U.S. vetoed a U.N. Security Council resolution demanding an immediate cease-fire in Gaza, a measure that had wide international support. The U.S. said Secretary of State Antony Blinken determined that “an emergency exists” in the national interest requiring the immediate sale, meaning it bypasses congressional review. Such a determination is rare.

A day after Israel confirmed it was rounding up Palestinian men for interrogation, some men released Saturday told The Associated Press they had been treated badly, providing the first accounts of the conditions from the detentions.

Osama Oula said Israeli troops had pulled men out of a building in the Shujaiyah area of Gaza City, ordering them to the street in their underwear. Oula said Israeli forces bound him and others with zip ties, beat them for several days and gave them little water to drink.

Ahmad Nimr Salman showed his hands, marked and swollen from the zip ties, and said older men with diabetes or high blood pressure were ignored when they asked soldiers to remove their ties.

He said the troops asked, ”‘Are you with Hamas?’ We say ‘no,’ then they would slap us or kick us.” He said his 17-year-old son Amjad is still held by the troops.

The group was released after five days and told to walk south. Ten freed detainees arrived at a hospital in Deir al-Balah on Saturday after flagging down an ambulance.

The Israeli military had no immediate comment when asked about the alleged abuse.

With the war in its third month, the Palestinian death toll in Gaza has surpassed 17,700, the majority women and children, according to the Health Ministry in the Hamas-controlled territory. The ministry does not differentiate between civilian and combatant deaths.

Two hospitals in central and southern Gaza received the bodies of 133 people from Israeli bombings over the past 24 hours, the Health Ministry said midday Saturday.

Israel holds the Hamas militants responsible for civilian casualties, accusing them of using civilians as human shields, and says it has made considerable efforts with evacuation orders to get civilians out of harm’s way. It says 97 Israeli soldiers have died in the ground offensive after Hamas raided southern Israel on Oct. 7, killing about 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and taking about 240 hostages.

Hamas said Saturday that it continued its rocket fire into Israel.

In Gaza, residents reported airstrikes and shelling, including in the southern city of Rafah near the Egyptian border — one area where the Israeli army had told civilians to go. In a colorful classroom there, knee-high children’s tables were strewn with rubble.

“We now live in the Gaza Strip and are governed by the American law of the jungle. America has killed human rights,” said Rafah resident Abu Yasser al-Khatib.

In northern Gaza, Israel has been trying to secure the military’s hold, despite heavy resistance from Hamas. The military said that it found weapons inside a school in Shujaiyah, a densely populated neighborhood of Gaza City, and that, in a separate incident, militants shot at troops from a U.N.-run school in the northern town of Beit Hanoun.

More than 2,500 Palestinians have been killed since the Dec. 1 collapse of a weeklong truce, about two-thirds of them women and children, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry.

The truce saw hostages and Palestinian prisoners released, but Israel says 137 hostages remain in Gaza.

On Saturday, a kibbutz that came under attack on Oct. 7 said 25-year-old hostage Sahar Baruch had died in captivity. His captors said Baruch was killed during a failed rescue mission by Israeli forces Friday. The Israeli military said Hamas killed him.

With no new cease-fire in sight and humanitarian aid reaching little of Gaza, residents reported severe food shortages. Nine of 10 people in northern Gaza reported spending at least one full day and night without food, according to a World Food Program assessment during the truce. Two of three people in the south said the same. The WFP called the situation “alarming.”

“I am very hungry,” said Mustafa al-Najjar, sheltering in a U.N.-run school in the devastated Jabaliya refugee camp in the north. “We are living on canned food and biscuits and this is not sufficient.”

While adults can cope, “it’s extremely difficult and painful when you see your young son or daughter crying because they are hungry,” he said.

Israelis who had been taken hostage also saw the food situation deteriorate, the recently freed Adina Moshe told a rally of thousands of people in Tel Aviv seeking the rapid return of all. “We ended up eating only rice,” said Moshe, who was held for 49 days.

The rally speakers accused Israel’s government of not doing enough to bring loved ones home. “How can I sleep at night? How can I protect my daughter?” asked Eli Albag, the father of 18-year-old hostage Liri Albag.

On Saturday, 100 trucks carrying unspecified aid entered Gaza through the Rafah crossing with Egypt, said Wael Abu Omar, a spokesman for the Palestinian Crossings Authority. That is still well below the daily average before the war.

Despite growing international pressure, President Joe Biden’s administration remains opposed to an open-ended cease-fire, arguing it would enable Hamas to continue posing a threat to Israel.

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant has argued that “a cease-fire is handing a prize to Hamas.”

Blinken continued to speak with counterparts from Saudi Arabia, Turkey and elsewhere amid open criticism of the U.S. stance.

“From now on, humanity won’t think the U.S.A. supports the Universal Declaration of Human Rights,” Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said in a speech.

Protesters at the COP28 climate summit in Dubai called for a cease-fire, despite restrictions on demonstrations.

Amid concerns about a wider conflict, Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen threatened to prevent any ship heading to Israeli ports from passing through the Red Sea and Arabian Sea until food and medicine can enter Gaza freely. Spokesman Brig. Gen. Yahya Saree said in a speech that all ships heading to Israel, no matter their nationality, will be a target.

The French navy said the frigate Languedoc in the Red Sea shot down two drones Saturday night coming “straight toward it” from a Houthi-held port city. The statement did not say whether the French navy assessed its frigate was the target of the drones.

Meanwhile, Lebanon’s militant Hezbollah group claimed responsibility for nine attacks on Saturday, saying one targeted an Israeli post near the town of Metula. The Israeli army said one of its fighter jets struck a Hezbollah operational command center in Lebanon. The U.N. peacekeeping force in southern Lebanon said the tower of one of its bases along the border with Israel was hit during the skirmishes, with no injuries.

In southern Gaza, thousands were on the run after what residents called a night of heavy gunfire and shelling.

Israel has designated a narrow patch of barren southern coastline, Muwasi, as a safe zone. But Palestinians described desperately overcrowded conditions with scant shelter and no toilets. They faced an overnight temperature of around 11 degrees Celsius (52 degrees Fahrenheit).

“I am sleeping on the sand. It’s freezing,” said Soad Qarmoot, who described herself as a cancer patient forced to leave her home in the northern town of Beit Lahiya.

As she spoke, her children huddled around a fire.

AP

WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Ukraine condemns Russian plans for elections on occupied territory

Ukraine on Saturday strongly condemned Russian plans to hold presidential elections next spring on occupied territory, declaring them "null and void" and pledging to prosecute any observers sent to monitor them.

Russia's upper house set the country's presidential election this week for next March, and chairwoman Valentina Matviyenko said residents in four occupied Ukrainian regions would be able to vote for the first time.

Russia claims to have annexed the Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhya and Kherson regions in the east and south of Ukraine during referenda last year dismissed by Kyiv and the West as a sham, but does not fully control any of them.

It also seized the Black Sea peninsula of Crimea from Ukraine in 2014.

"We call on the international community to resolutely condemn Russia's intention to hold presidential elections in the occupied Ukrainian territories, and to impose sanctions on those involved in their organization and conduct," Ukraine's foreign ministry said in a statement.

It also warned countries against sending observers to the "pseudo-elections", saying offenders would "face criminal responsibility".

"Any election in Russia has nothing to do with democracy. They serve only as a tool to keep the Russian regime in power," the ministry said.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Friday he would run for president again, a move expected to keep him in power until at least 2030.

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

Battlegroup East thwarts Ukrainian attack, rotation attempt on southern Donetsk direction

Russian troops thwarted an attack and disrupted a rotation attempt of Ukraine’s 59th Motorized Brigade near DPR’s Novodonetskoye, Battlegroup East Spokesman Oleg Chekhov told TASS.

"Forces of Battlegroup East continue to perform their duties on the southern Donetsk direction. With support of artillery and army aviation, an attack of the 58th Motorized Brigade was thwarted and its personnel rotation was disrupted near Novodonetskoye. Artillery fire hit temporary deployment positions of this brigade near Urozhaynoye, and of the 118th Territorial Defense Brigade near Makarovka," he said.

According to Chekhov, heavy flamethrower systems also destroyed enemy personnel in strongholds near Novomikhailovka, while bombers struck concentrations of Ukrainian personnel and equipment near Praskoviyevka.·"The enemy's losses amounted to up to 80 militants and two vehicles," the spokesman added.

Reuters/Tass

It was 25 years ago; Saturday, October 10, 1998 to be precise. We were all inside the living room of the Yaba, Lagos modest home of Frank Ovie-Kokori. We were waiting for our heroes. In the heat of the June 12, 1993 presidential election validation saga, Kokori was Secretary-General of the Nigeria Union of Petroleum and Natural Gas (NUPENG) workers and a major weapon deployed by pro-democracy activists to frustrate the vile government of Head of State, General Sani Abacha. The journey from Ibadan, Oyo State to Lagos this morning had been devoid of its usual serpentine traffic snarl. My editor, Femi Adeoti, freshly out of Sani Abacha's jailhouse at Agodi Prisons, had got wind of a small reception that was afoot in Kokori’s home. A day before then, October 9, self-exiled National Democratic Coalition (NADECO) chieftains, driven to scamper into exile by the blood-baiting fangs of Abacha, had arrived Nigeria from their various bunkers abroad. Dan Suleiman, John Odigie-Oyegun, Peter Obadan, Bola Tinubu, on that day, returned to Nigeria. Four months prior, Nigeria had been relieved of the cruel, maximum rule of Abacha. He expired without a whimper. The country was as well recuperating from the unexpected death of MKO Abiola, winner of the June 12, 1993 presidential election.

Unlike his military ruler predecessors, Abdulsalami Abubakar had begun genuine return of power to a democratically elected government. As a prelude to this, on June 15, 1998, the new Head of State ordered the release of some high profile political detainees which included Olusegun Obasanjo, Ibrahim Dasuki, Bola Ige, Beko Ransome-Kuti, Chris Anyanwu, Ovie-Kokori and some other journalists and pro-democracy activists who Abacha had incarcerated. On July 9, 1998, Abubakar’s Provisional Ruling Council (PRC) also commuted to jail terms the death sentences earlier passed on Diya, and his colleagues for their alleged involvement in the December 1997 coup. This was followed in tow by his government’s unveiling of a political transition programme on July 20, 1998 which affirmed May 29, 1999 as handover date, proceeding on August 11, 1998 to inaugurate a 14-member Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) headed by Ephraim Akpata.

Assured that General Abubakar’s new government meant well, an exodus back to Nigeria of exiles who had fled the Abacha rule began. 

NADECO had been a huge thorn in the flesh of Abacha. Formed on May 15, 1994, the aim of the founding of the coalition was to press for the revalidation of the June 12 election. Its first baptism of fire was the May 23, 1994 call for a boycott it made of the Abacha National Constitutional Conference. On NADECO’s order, that conference was massively boycotted, South-West being the hub of resistance to it. The boycott was so intense and effective that Ibrahim Coomasie, Nigeria’s Inspector General of Police, declared NADECO illegal on May 31, 1994, a call which signposted Abacha’s eventual clampdown on Nigerian pro-democracy activists. NADECO then became the first bite of Abacha’s Dracula incisors, with its members bailing out of Nigeria through orthodox and unorthodox routes.

We sat awaiting Kokori’s august guests. They all arrived to pay what they called homage to the petroleum union czar. Dan Suleiman, Odigie-Oyegun, Obadan, Tinubu and Tokunbo Afikuyomi walked into Kokori’s living room hugging one another with a suffusion of handshakes. They were all obviously very excited at the reunion. It was not much of a speech-making event but an opportunity to relive the trench years and appreciate how Providence had made them outlive the maniacal machinations of Abacha. As they did this, I moved round them for interviews. Tinubu, the man who was senator in the previous aborted republic, and who today is the president of Nigeria, was my first target.

What struck you as you first came back home; your impression of Nigeria now, that is? I asked. “Retrogression, rolling backwards, on reverse gear, that is my impression. Sad. That people are still queuing at the petrol stations, spend more productive hours at the petrol stations than in economic sector. It is a very sad story… You see poverty, glaringly in the face of the people in a nation that has so much resource to give. It hurts,” Tinubu told me.

When asked of his experience in exile, he made an ad-lib detour to Kokori. “…Our own situation was even much better than him (pointing to Kokori) who we are here to pay tribute to today. A man (detained) in dinghy, six by six cell, blindfolded, not with cloth but there was no daylight in the prison; he was tortured mentally, physically and emotionally. Ours was only restricted to mental torture…” The interview ended with my asking Tinubu to cast his mind back on Abacha’s rule; does he wonder how Nigeria could have ended up spending five grueling years under the dictator? His response: “Abacha was a possessed man, evil in true calling of it because he had no leadership quality, no vision whatsoever. He was trained to brutally win a war, shoot and kill…He coupled that with his sense of dishonesty, lying, manipulation and deception…What was sad was, that became seriously sad, was the people who now became members of the five political parties who wanted Abacha to reign. They could not see anything wrong in what Abacha was doing to their brothers and sisters. They are political prostitutes who should not have any political opportunity in any political environment in the next five to ten years… (they) don’t deserve to be in any position of trust or leadership in this country…”

Suleiman too was full of praise for Kokori but all the returnee exiles had very uncomplimentary words for Abacha. For Suleiman, “his demise…was a judgment from above and our only desire is that we never have to go through such an era again in our lives.” To Obadan, “Abacha was bad news. He was a bloodthirsty demon and it is unfortunate that the military raised such a monster, very unfortunate.” When I asked Oyegun to look at the Abacha phenomenon in retrospect and proffer what was responsible for his downfall, he said, “I will say, God, because the good old saying is that those whom the gods wish to destroy, they first make mad.”   

The likes of Kokori should remind Nigerians that the civil rule they enjoy today was not handed on a silver platter. It cost the lives, blood, tears and freedom of some Nigerians who fought for it as the country walked down the aisle of this long road to freedom. Kokori played a major role in the protests that sprung up across the country immediately Ibrahim Babangida annulled the election. It was the first time NUPENG would be realizing the awesome power on its shoulders to singlehandedly paralyze the country’s economy. Kokori weaponized this by instigating workers to embark on a strike that caused a total paralysis that grounded Nigeria’s economy. Thus, on July 5, 1994, NUPENG and Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association (PENGASSAN) struck, throwing Nigeria into the longest strike in her history as protest against the annulled presidential elections raged in Nigeria. 

A number of other events followed. On July 8, 1994, an orgy of riots broke out in the Southwestern states, especially Lagos, Oyo, Ondo, Ogun, as well as Edo State and on August 3, 1994, the Nigerian Labour Congress (NLC) in solidarity with the oil workers’ strike, also called for a general strike. This led to the crackdown by Abacha who sacked the Executive Council of NUPENG, PENGASSAN and NLC, shut down three newspapers, Punch, Concord group and The Guardian. Abacha was said to have baited Kokori with mouth-watering appointment and cash and upon refusal, laid a snare for him and Kokori was finally arrested on August 18, 1994.

For those who didn’t know or have forgotten, Nigeria was miniature Palestine in the war between Abacha and the pro-democracy activists. On May 31, 1995, a seismic bomb blast was recorded at the launch of the Family Support Programme (FSP) in the Ilorin Stadium. Two people died. Similarly, on November 14, 1996 a car bomb exploded at the Murtala Muhammed International Airport, killing three people, including the Chief Security Officer of the Federal Airport Authority (FAA), Shola Omasola. In Ondo, Ondo State on September 25, 1997 a bomb explosion banged in the country home of Alex Akinyele, ex-Information Minister. I was there and saw the deep hole it made on the chief’s house. As the Yoruba say that calamities come in a jiffy (peki laa ko eemo) two weeks before his arrest, Diya narrowly escaped being bombed when an explosion rocked the Abuja Airport as he prepared to fly to Markurdi, Benue State to represent Abacha at the funeral of the mother of Lawrence Onoja. Intels later revealed that the Abacha government was behind the bombings. It was a precursor to his other calamities.

Unexplained murders of those who had one or two things to do against Abacha’s sit-tightism were rife as some were either detained or disappeared. Alfred Rewane, Suliat Adedeji, Olu Omotehinwa, Tunde Elegbede and many more were cruelly murdered. On September 12, 1994, Olu Onagoruwa, a highly respected pro-democracy activist, who was serially pleaded with not to accept the Abacha invitation to work with his government, was sacked as Attorney General and Minister of Justice, although he claimed to have resigned. Apparently having a feeling of monachopsis, Onagoruwa had disowned eight inhuman decrees promulgated by the Abacha government. He had earlier lost his son, Toyin who was murdered by some unknown assailants.

In an interview he later granted TheNews magazine, Onagoruwa had explained Toyin’s death thus: “General Abacha was not happy with my departure from his government. He felt I was arrogant and over-bearing. News started to get to me that I was in danger and that I should be very careful…Little did we realise that he would pounce on our son, Oluwatoyin, who qualified as a lawyer in 1995. Toyin was very dear to us. He was a loving child; he was palpably cheerful and kind. He had one boy, Victor, as his friend. They were so close that the boy looked very much like part of our family. When this boy could not pay his school fees, I had to pay. On the day of his wedding, my wife and I stood in as his parents. We do not know how this boy got into the SSS (State Security Service) camp and these operatives used him against us. He told them Toyin’s movement in the evenings, particularly to his fiancee’s house; and he told them the address of the house… they felled Toyin.”

When some of us agonize on how little difference exists between then and now, few know the depth of our feeling of déjà vu and the privations we also suffered. I had resigned from the Tribune to go join efforts with Segun Olatunji, Adeolu Akande, Wale Adebanwi and Bode Opeseitan in a newly founded newspaper named Omega Weekly. We were unpretentiously adversarial against the military government. Our stories, features and editorial opinions were audaciously disdainful of Abacha and his government. Adebanwi got whiffs of happenings in the Villa almost immediately they occurred which decorated front pages of our newspaper. We were the newspaper wing of the pro-democracy activists. One day, we received Intels that Abacha’s goons were after us. So, in the night, we ferried all our computer machines to my rented apartment at Oke-Ayo, Odo Ona, Ibadan where we began to produce the newspaper and to print it in undisclosed locations. God bless her soul, my landlady, Mrs. Folasade Asake, never knew that high treason was being baked in her house. If any one of us was ever captured, we would have suffered Bagauda Kaltho’s fate.  

An on-a-lighter-mood incident I still recollect with so much laughter was December 22, 1997, the day after General Diya and his colleagues were rounded up for their alleged involvement in a coup plot. I had just purchased a pair of shoes I wore to our office at Olusanya area of Ibadan’s Ring Road; my necklace hanging invitingly. When Adebanwi saw me, astounded, he asked if I knew what calamity had befallen Nigeria. Did I know of Diya’s arrest? Why then was I so daintily dressed? Akande also mockingly asked if I knew that there was a disjunction between “those prose writings of yours and the image of you in mundane necklace.” That was the last time I ever wore neck chain.

In their hearts of hearts, many of those I interviewed in Kokori’s house on October 10, 1998 must be thoroughly dejected about their post-Abacha Nigeria dream and what we have now. Nigeria, under “the progressives” and “the pro-democracy activists” answers to that old saying of, the more things change, the more they stay the same. Tinubu’s 

impression of Nigeria as “retrogression, rolling backwards, on reverse gear” is still the sad lot of Nigeria today, if not worse. His “people are still queuing at the petrol stations, spending more productive hours at the petrol stations than in economic sector," what he judged as the "very sad story” is still the sad story Nigeria grapples with. His “you see poverty, glaringly in the face of the people in a nation that has so much resource to give,” sounds like a prophecy he foretold of Nigeria in 2023 under his watch as president. Poverty and hunger seem like the Nigerian prevailing zeitgeist now. The president must be agonizing today about what to do to reverse his prophecies and make Nigerians sing Alleluyah. I am sure Frank Ovie-Kokori died last week a sad man.

The one that hurts most is that, if Tinubu, 25 years ago, was that incensed with Abacha as “a possessed man, evil in true calling” and was riled at those who worked with him, who “could not see anything wrong in what Abacha was doing to their brothers and sisters,” how did he feel working for Abacha's main man, Muhammadu Buhari, to be president in 2015 and how comfortable is he with Abacha's very well known business associate, Abubakar Atiku Bagudu, as our Minister of Budget and Economic Planning today?

Today, I wonder what is the state of the families of those who died in the struggle for the actualization of June 12; those shot by soldiers and policemen; those who struggled for a better Nigeria but are confronted by an opaque future today. It reminds me of Peter Tosh’s Jah Sey No song. At some point, it dawned on this iconoclastic reggae music singer seeking change in the world that the struggle was a mirage. He was getting wary of the feeble impact of his songs, especially the repeated attacks and assaults without let that he got from the authority. So, in Jah seh so, Tosh launched into existential rhetorical questions. He repeatedly asked if a Rastaman, the longsuffering believer, “must bear this cross alone and all the heathens go free? Must Rasta live in misery and heathens in luxury? Must righteous live in pain and always put to shame? Must they be found guilty and always get the blame?”

Is that the song those who salivated for a great Nigeria; those who walked barefooted through the thistles and briers of military rule, are now singing? Frank Kokori died a few days ago on his 80th birthday. He was an authentic hero of democracy. May his valiant soul rest in peace. 

For unto us a child is born, unto us a son is given: and the government shall be upon his shoulder: and his name shall be called Wonderful, Counsellor, The mighty God, The everlasting Father, The Prince of Peace ~ Isaiah 9:6.

Introduction

The usual greeting at this time of the year is: compliments of the season! It is Christmas Yuletide, well noted for great joy, merriment, exchange of lovely gifts, evergreen songs, highest degrees of pomp, etcetera. Hence, I join a host of gladsome hearts, globally, to say to you, very merry Christmas season!

Now, most people often think about Christmas as a single day’s event, commemorating the birth of Jesus of Nazareth, but it’s much more than that. It’s actually a season of a whole lifetime, celebrating the incarnation of God in Jesus the Christ.

Incarnation is the self-revelation of God to the world, whereby both His power and wisdom came to our planet earth and became human, just for the reconciliation of humanity to Himself (1Corinthians 1:24). It’s God partaking of human

nature so we can be partakers of the divine nature (2 Peter 1:4). Alleluia!

Jesus Christ Is Remarkably Wonderful!

Indeed, there are few words in the human diction, which can describe Jesus as perfectly as the word, “wonderful”! A wonder is generally suited to excite amazement and admiration, whether it be miraculous or not (Jeremiah 32:17).

“Wonderful” is usually applied to anything that is quite distinguished and distinctly great (Daniel 12:6). Thus, here it denotes the unusual and remarkable assemblage of qualities that distinguish the Messiah, and qualify Him as the Mighty God.

When we cast our minds upon the various “infallible proofs” of His unfailing goodness, ever-enduring mercy and unfathomable greatness, we cannot but marvel and declare that we serve the One who is, in all respects, wonderful.

However, the wonderfulness of Jesus Christ is intrinsic to His divine person, transcending the sheer awesomeness of the things that He did and still does. I believe this was what inspired the Psalmist to write: “thou art great, and doest wondrous things: thou art God alone” (Psalm 86:10).

Even before the Master walked the shores of the earth, the wonder of His person was known to some people, by revelation. For example, when the Prophet Isaiah foretold the first coming of Jesus, he proclaimed that “His name shall be called Wonderful ....” (Isaiah 9:6).

All the attributes inherent in the other names alluded to in that prophetic proclamation – His guidance, His might, His everlasting love, the Peace He gives – are best summed up in one word: wonderful.

Likewise Daniel, while in the land of captivity, saw a revelation of Jesus and His glory and His dominion, which is an everlasting dominion, which shall not pass away (Daniel 7:14). What a wonder – a universal kingdom and dominion that knows no end!

Albeit, nothing tells the story of His wonder as much as His matchless love, which saw the omnipotent, omnipresent and omniscient One voluntarily take on the human form and submit Himself to the death on the Cross. This is truly mind- blowing!

Jesus Christ Is The Unique Wonder of All Wonders!

Justly is Jesus Christ called Wonderful. He is both God and man. His love is the wonder of angels, and of glorified saints. Jesus Christ, in His being and in His works, is exalted above the ordinary course of nature.

He is wonderful in His person, and in the glory and beauty of it. It was a wonder that God gave Him for us, and that He came. He’s wonderful in His humility, self-denial, patience, conduct, courage, and greatness of soul.

His conception was wonderful. After His birth, the direction of the wise men to Him by a star, His preservation from Herod's cruelty, and His wisdom in disputation with the law-doctors in the temple at twelve years of age were all records of wonder.

His baptism in Jordan was a wonder. His victory over Satan’s temptations in the wilderness, His doctrines, His mighty works and His transfiguration on the mount were all wonderful.

Jesus was even wonderful in His death. By dying, He procured life for us. He abolished death, destroyed the devil and obtained eternal redemption for all mankind. At His death, there was a great earthquake, darkness fell upon the earth, and even the temple veil was supernaturally rent in two (Matthew 27-28).

Again, wonderful is His resurrection from the dead, and His ascension to heaven. His entrance into heaven is wonderful: He’s even now seated at the right hand of God interceding for us.

Yet, more wonderful will Jesus Christ be in His second coming. The trumpet will sound with the voice of the archangel, the dead will be raised, there will be the rapture of saints, followed by pronouncements and executions of distinct divine judgements. Please pause here, and ponder!

Jesus Christ is the Wonder of all generations. He’s the embodiment of all wonders over the ages. In His ordinances, His manifestations and His grace, now and hereafter, Jesus is wonderful in all content.

History is replete with various examples of the “almightiness” of Jesus Christ and His wondrous works. He fed five thousand with five loaves and two fish. He walked on water and calmed the storm. He healed the sick, raised the dead and cast out devils!

However, most amazing of all, He reproduces Himself and dwells within millions of believers across the earth. Thus, as believers today, we can experience and live as proxies of His wonder on the earth (Luke 17:21; 1Corinthians 3:16)!

No wonder then that we, His people, are for signs and wonders (Isaiah 8:18). He is not only "wonderful", but a "miracle of unfolding secret", revealed to believers through the mercy of God (Judges 13:17-18).

Yes indeed, Jesus Christ is the One who defies every adjective that we attempt to use in qualifying Him (Job 9:10). He is our wonderful kinsman-Redeemer.

He’s wonderful in all He is, in all He does, and in all that belongs unto Him. He’s the King of kings; He lives in us and we’re His viceroys on earth (1John 4:17).

Please, celebrate Him responsibly this season, building up yourself on your most holy faith. Surely, the One who is called “Wonderful” shall make you a wonder unto many, and you shall enjoy manifest goodness within and all around you! You won’t miss it, in Jesus name. Amen. Happy Sunday!

____________________

Bishop Taiwo Akinola,

Rhema Christian Church,

Otta, Ogun State, Nigeria.

Connect with Bishop Akinola via these channels:

Facebook: www.facebook.com/bishopakinola

SMS/WhatsApp: +234 802 318 4987

Is it good to go to school; get a good job; build your own house; and have lots of money? Not according to Jesus. These things are highly valued by men. But Jesus teaches that: “What is highly valued among men is detestable in God’s sight.” (Luke 16:15).

Therefore, it is not surprising that Jesus had none of these accomplishments as a man. He did not go to school. He was a lowly carpenter. He did not build His own house. He was not a rich man.

In Jesus’ doctrine, the cares of this life are the preoccupations of Satan and men. This makes them offensive to God. Jesus told Peter: “Get behind me, Satan! You are an offense to me, for you are not mindful of the things of God, but the things of men.” (Matthew 16:23).

This means the things of men are the things of Satan. Jesus asked the chief priests of the Jews: “The baptism of John – where was it from? From heaven or from men?” (Matthew 21:25). If it is from heaven, then it cannot be from men.

God Is Good

Jesus says: “No one is good but One, that is, God.” (Matthew 19:17). This means only the things about the kingdom of God can be good. Everything about this world is evil. Those things that preoccupy us; going to school, getting good jobs, building houses, and making money, all pertain to this world and, as such, are evil and not of God.

God’s kingdom is not of this world. (John 18:36). Indeed, everything earthly is a human alternative to the will of God in heaven. Continued devotion to the things of this world militates against our desire to be with the Father in heaven and it is therefore evil.

Jesus says to His disciples: “If you then, being evil, know how to give good gifts to your children, how much more will your heavenly Father give the Holy Spirit to those who ask Him!” (Luke 11:13).

This indicates He sees men as evil. To be good, men, whom Jesus also categorise as “the sons of this world,” have to become “the sons of light;” another word for sons of God. Sons of men must receive from Jesus the power to become sons of God. (John 1:12-13).

This requires all our affinities to men and to this world to be relinquished in favour of God and the kingdom of heaven. These include allegiances to the fatherland, to family and relatives, and race, sex, and creed.

Jesus is categorical: “If anyone comes to me and does not hate his father and mother, wife and children, brothers and sisters, yes, and his own life also, he cannot be my disciple.” (Luke 14:26). He says furthermore: “Whoever of you does not forsake all that he has cannot be my disciple.” (Luke 14:33).

Relative and Absolute Evil

Men are consumed by the love of life, leading us to regard anything that threatens our life as evil. This makes us define evil erroneously in relative terms. If the enemy kills us, he is evil; but if we kill him, we are good.

However, God sees evil in absolute terms.

Jesus regards anything that undermines God’s will as evil. This makes man’s life the greatest evil of all. The love of life, expressed in our determination to enhance, promote, and safeguard our temporal condition, commands our allegiance even above the first and greatest commandment to love God with all our heart.

Therefore, Jesus regards man’s love of life as the root of all evil and the basis of every sin. Indeed, we steal, cheat, fight, kill and commit adultery to save our lives. We only overcome sin by hating our lives.   

Re-definition of Evil

Jesus reveals that the love of life makes men the enemies of God. He tells us that God has made the hatred of life in this world the primary prerequisite for the attainment of eternal life. Jesus says: “He who loves his life will lose it, and he who hates his life in this world will keep it for eternal life” (John 12:25).

Thereby, Jesus redefines evil. Since men esteem their lives more than anything else, Jesus defines everything that diminishes our life in this world as good. He requires us to take pleasure in infirmities, in reproaches, in needs, in persecutions and in distresses. For when we are weak, then we are strong. (2 Corinthians 12:10).

Poverty becomes a blessing. Jesus says: “Blessed are you who are poor, for yours is the kingdom of God.” (Luke 6:20). He also categorises adversities as a blessing: “Blessed are you who hunger now, for you will be satisfied. Blessed are you who weep now, for you will laugh.” 

(Luke 6:21).

He says: “Blessed are you when men hate you, when they exclude you and insult you and reject your name as evil, because of the Son of Man.” (Luke 6:22).

Correspondingly, Jesus tells us not to bother to resist evil anymore: “I tell you, do not resist an evil person. If someone strikes you on the right cheek, turn to him the other also.” (Matthew 5:39). He insists we must love our enemies: “I tell you: Love your enemies and pray for those who persecute you.” (Matthew 5:44).

Moreover, Jesus says we should not fear death: “Do not be afraid of those who kill the body and after that can do no more.” (Luke 12:4). Death becomes something good because it leads to our reunification with the Father in heaven: “If you loved me, you would rejoice because I said, ‘I am going to the Father.’” (John 14:28). But life is evil because it keeps us away from God.

Evil Misnomer

The problem with the love of life is that men are unaware that it is sinful. If we love life, we will automatically love sin. The love of life militates against the love of God. It blinds men to the truth about good and evil.

Indeed, we define our righteousness by the extent to which we love and promote life; the very thing God hates. To understand good and evil from God’s perspective, we must first break free from the bondage of the love of life.

The love of life prompts us to eat from the God-forbidden tree of the knowledge of good and evil. Everything we make and do has evil and good in it simultaneously. Every good medicine for healing sicknesses has bad side effects. The plane that carries us from Cape to Cairo sometimes falls from the sky and crashes.

We make so-called “evil things” like the atom bomb and the machine gun; and “good things” like the airplane and the aspirin. But both our “good” and “bad” products are evil in God’s sight because they are of the world and not of God.

Accordingly, John counsels: “Do not love the world or anything in the world. If anyone loves the world, the love of the Father is not in him. For everything in the world – the cravings of sinful man, the lust of his eyes and the boasting of what he has and does – comes not from the Father but from the world.” (1 John 2:15-16).

This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.; www.femiaribisala.com 

Over the past several decades, there have been many supporting studies of the health-promoting effects of an optimistic personality. Much research has been done on the connection between a high level of optimism and good health, described well in clinical psychologists Burel R. Goodin and Hailey W. Bulls' 2014 research paper, appropriately titled, “Optimism and the Experience of Pain: Benefits of Seeing the Glass as Half Full.” The authors state that optimism “is linked to both enhanced physiological recovery and psychosocial adjustment to coronary artery bypass surgery, bone marrow transplant, postpartum depression, traumatic brain injury, Alzheimer’s disease, lung cancer, breast cancer, and failed in vitro fertilization.”

Newer research demonstrates that high levels of hope have been found to be related to lower levels of pain, psychological distress, and functional disability in patients with chronic illnesses. I notice these associations daily when I see patients, and so my clinical style is to be an optimist. I don’t want to give false hope, but I think a major role of a physician is to educate patients about the possibilities for treating their diseases, both those that are available now and those that may be available in the near future. I know it is demoralizing as a patient to feel out of control, but by ensuring patients understand what is going on, I hope I can at least reduce some stress—and perhaps even enable them to have a better outcome through their new optimism.

This is not to say there’s no value in grief and feeling glum. Forced optimism can backfire when too much inauthentic positivity leads to denialism and hiding dark emotions that demand we process them. Your mood and general outlook on life are not mutually exclusive. But the two do interact to help determine your overall personality and approach to life in response to positive or negative events. Unsurprisingly, this is also true for other members of the animal kingdom, particularly for pigs and squirrels.

In fact, the domestic pig is an interesting animal to study and compare with humans in terms of the way they process happiness and pain. Pigs are among a growing list of research subjects in the relatively young scientific field of animal personality. Pigs share a number of cognitive capacities with humans, such as self-awareness, experiencing emotions, and playfulness. Studies on the domestic pig tell us that mood and personality interact to influence thinking, how our biases come into play within our environment, and decision-making. And therein lies a key word: environment. It turns out that our environments can make or break our moods (and those of pigs).

In pigs, personality is frequently measured by watching how the animals cope under different circumstances. Pigs that are deemed proactive, characterized by more active and consistent behavior, are not the same as reactive pigs that behave more passively and erratically. In studies on humans, proactivity and reactivity have been linked to extraversion and neuroticism, respectively, with extroverts more optimistic and those with neurotic tendencies more pessimistic. In one particularly illuminating 2016 study done by a group of researchers in the United Kingdom who specialize in animal behavior and welfare, a litter of pigs that included both proactive and reactive swine was placed in one of two environments known to influence their moods. One environment, designed to be more feel-goody, was more comfortable, playful, and roomy than the other. It had a couple of more square feet per pig and the addition of straw, which pigs love to play with and use as their bedding. Research has long shown that the addition of straw to a pigpen can enhance pigs’ welfare.

To conduct the experiment, the pigs were trained to associate two separate feeding bowls with different outcomes. One bowl contained sugary treats, which represented a positive outcome, and the other, filled with coffee beans, promoted the negative outcome.

Then the researchers introduced a third bowl that would act as the litmus test for identifying how optimistic or pessimistic each pig was. The researchers watched to see whether the pig approached this bowl expecting more sweets (and thus another positive outcome) and were optimists. As it turned out, the proactive pigs were more likely to respond optimistically regardless, but the optimism of the reactive pigs hinged on their moods. Reactive pigs living in the roomier feel-good environment were much more likely to be optimistic about the feeding bowl with an unknown inside. The pigs living in a smaller, more barren environment acted pessimistically. The experiment also revealed what the researchers assumed was true from the start: humans are not unique in combining longer-term personality traits, such as a penchant to have a gloomy or conversely sunny outlook, with shorter-term mood biases when making judgments.

Our personalities color our decisions, and our moods can be influenced heavily by our environments, which means we do have some control in protecting our preferred moods. If you want to tip the scales in favor of being hopeful and reap the health rewards, you need to be mindful of your living quarters, what (and most definitely, whom) you surround yourself with, and where you spend your leisure time (watching TV alone in your living room or taking a walk with a friend). This advice may sound obvious or trite, but not until recently has science really drilled down on the significance of the personality-mood-outlook-outcome phenomenon.

Other scientists have recorded findings in squirrels that point out once again that personality matters. A three-year study published in 2021 that was done by a team of researchers from the University of California, Davis and the Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory in Colorado is the first to document personality in golden-mantled ground squirrels, which are common across the western United States and parts of Canada. The researchers recorded four main traits: boldness, aggressiveness, activity level, and sociability. They noted that bolder, more social squirrels earn an advantage over their shyer counterparts; the gregarious ones move more quickly, command the use of more space and places to perch themselves, and gain more access to resources. These effects ultimately favor the social squirrels’ survival. It pays to be convivial, and maybe a little brash.

Although pain and pain management within the context of personality was not part of this study, we can draw some conclusions nevertheless. There is a lot that each of us has control over, and many things, such as health, where we have only partial control, so we have to use the power we have to tip the scales in our favor. This means taking a good look at our lifestyles, because work on the things that we can affect—our moods, our environments, whom we associate with, where we choose to spend our time—and the other aspects like pain and how we feel will improve. Maybe it will not alleviate all of our symptoms, but it will have a major influence.

New research into people with personality disorders, such as narcissism and borderline personality disorder, finds they report higher levels of pain and may even be at a higher risk for cognitive decline (and dementias, including Alzheimer’s). This newer research too highlights the power of personality. In particular, the research shows that people who are organized, responsible, goal directed, and gregarious and have high levels of self-discipline (“conscientiousness”) may be less likely to develop cognitive decline and impairments than those who are moody or emotionally unstable (“neurotic”). My hunch is the research on pain and personality and cognition and personality will increasingly overlap. After all, our patterns of thinking and behaving—our personality traits—all go hand in hand with how we perceive pain and how our brains function.

Adapted from THE BOOK OF ANIMAL SECRETS: Nature’s Lessons for a Long and Happy Life by David B. Agus, MD.

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