Twenty months ago, after Vladimir Putin had launched his full-scale invasion of Ukraine, many high-ranking Russians believed that the end was near. The economy faced disaster, as they saw it, and the Putin regime was on the brink of collapse. Today, the mood has changed dramatically, writes Mikhail Zygar.

Business leaders, officials and ordinary people tell me that the economy has stabilized, defying the Western sanctions that were once expected to have a devastating effect. Putin’s regime, they say, looks more stable than at any other time in the past two years.

Restaurants in Moscow are packed. “The restaurant market is growing, not only in Moscow, but throughout Russia, facilitated by the development of domestic tourism,” said a top Russian restaurateur. “And the quality of food is also changing for the better. Sure, panic struck the industry in early 2022, but it quickly passed.”

Real estate prices are rising, and construction is booming. At the beginning of 2022, most global brands left Russia, leaving empty storefronts in malls and streets. Now, the gaps have been filled by Russian counterparts, as the chief executive of one retail network told me. Putin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, recently admitted that the Russian economy had faced “a threat of collapse” in the months after the invasion but said the country is now over the worst.

Before the war, Russian business executives generally kept their savings in the West. They also bought real estate, properties that sometimes served as second homes for their families. Now, as one Russian oligarch told me, that door has been slammed shut, sparking an investment boom at home. The only option left is for tycoons to put their money into domestic investments. Major building projects are now under way in places ranging from the Altai Mountains in eastern Siberia to Karelia on the border with Finland. In September, Bloomberg reported that Russian oligarchs had returned at least $50 billion to Russia since the invasion. According to those I interviewed, that estimate is very modest.

Russian industry is booming. Defence companies are leading the way, of course, with some expected to show growth of more than 30 percent this year. Moscow is continuing to sell oil and gas to foreign buyers — not only China and India but European countries, too; most of these customers simply purchase Russian petroleum through intermediaries such as Turkey, Azerbaijan or Egypt. The West might have succeeded in cutting most of its ties with Russia, but Moscow’s trade with the rest of the world is picking up.

The Soviet Union’s Cold War isolation has not repeated itself. Putin’s Russia can get many of the supplies it needs from China. For many Moscow residents, perhaps the most striking change on the streets is the near-wholesale replacement of Western cars with Chinese models.

After the invasion, the International Monetary Fund estimated that the Russian economy would fall by 2.3 percent in 2023. In January 2023, the IMF changed its forecast, predicting growth of 0.3 percent. It changed its forecasts at least two more times during the year; in October, it finally settled on a figure of 2.2 percent.

The sanctions have left Russian business leaders with no option but to stay at home. Even those who wanted to remain in the West and help Ukraine were punished – such as banker Oleg Tinkov, who condemned the war and even renounced his Russian citizenship but was hit by sanctions nonetheless. (He finally succeeded in getting them lifted only a few months ago.) Tycoon Mikhail Fridman, co-founder of Russia’s largest private bank, cautiously criticized the war, only to find himself briefly arrested by British authorities and hit by American sanctions. A few weeks ago, Fridman gave up, initially leaving his London home for Tel Aviv, then finally returning to Moscow.

Fridman’s return had a symbolic effect on the Russian business elite: It convinced them that the West sees them only as enemies. That means the only way to survive is to co-operate with the Kremlin, because Putin, unlike the West, has not yet punished any business leaders, even those who spoke out against the war.

It is the war in the Middle East, however, that has convinced Russian business leaders that Putin is winning. In their view, public opinion in the West is shifting away from Ukraine. Putin, meanwhile, will strengthen his standing in the eyes of the Global South. His claims that the United States is to blame for the crisis in Gaza resonate with millions of people around the world.

As for the war, the authorities are finding recruits by focusing their efforts on the poorest, most depressed regions of Russia and promising salaries 10 times the average. Putin still has money in his coffers, meaning that he is not going to run out of cannon fodder any time soon.

Russian elites are well aware that the regime still has many weaknesses. Russia still can’t produce many of the goods it needs, and getting them from its friends is complicated. One businessman told me that airlines will soon have to close because of a lack of spare parts for their passenger planes.

Even so, the shift in public opinion is unmistakable. Twenty months ago, Russian elites were convinced that the long-unassailable Putin had finally overplayed his hand and that he would likely have to pay a harsh price for his miscalculation.

Now, most of them seem to have changed their minds. The Russian president, as they see it, has shown that he’s here to stay.

The Washington Post

There's an ever-changing landscape in today's business world. It's vital for companies to constantly stay ahead of the curve for consistent growth. Failure to do so can render your business practices outdated at best and obsolete at worst.

One of my favorite events to attend each year is Ernst and Young's Strategic Growth Forum. In 2016, I was an award winner and have attended every year since.

It's fascinating to meet the individuals and companies who also attend and to note the changing trends in growth and innovation each year.

With that being said, here are a few innovative trends that stood out to me among a variety of businesses, as well as how these businesses are using them as they progress into 2024.

Having Purpose-Aligned Goals

A notable aspect of the event is the focus on supporting minority entrepreneurs with EY's Entrepreneur Access Network. One of the members, Ravi Norman, inspired me with his commitment to solving two critical challenges: Sustaining innovation through a more inclusive entrepreneurial ecosystem and ensuring more resilient communities through energy and water efficiency and conservation.

His company, Sagiliti, uses data intelligence to reduce utility costs and improve sustainability metrics, while still prioritizing supplier diversity spend and job creation. There are companies that specialize in one – or many –  of these areas, but Sagiliti makes it a priority to satisfy all facets of the ESG journey.

More of the award recipients this year had these concentric goals for improving economic, social, and governance outcomes in a more comprehensive way. To me, this signals that an increasing number of companies are beginning to see success with these goals in mind.

While it's difficult to accomplish every one of these goals, consistent progress is an attractive company attribute that future business partners and clients alike will respect into 2024 and beyond.

Expanding Business Ecosystems Into Communities

When Apple first released the iPod and iPhone, it marked the beginning of one of the most successful ecosystems that has since attained a genuine following for their products. Some companies have an amazing flagship product that can catapult growth to new levels.

One example of this phenomenon that I encountered at the event was The Elf on the Shelf, which is a product my kids have adored over the years.

Now, my 10-year-old practices The Elf on the Shelf tradition for our younger kids. Their prior success in launching an Elf Pets line proved that an ecosystem could be created.

So, it was no surprise to hear that they plan to expand their reach even further by launching the Santaverse, a storytelling universe around the enchanted world of Santa Claus, with the hero brand The Elf on the Shelf at its center.

Needless to say, any company that has a dedicated following of users can easily expand into different service lines related to their flagship product.

Sometimes, growth is already on a trajectory with the main product, which indicates that it's time to look at the supporting areas that can be built around it.

Few brands have evolved into true massive communities. But, with today's tools like data, technology and platforms that can help you engage a large target audience, this kind of progression is much more achievable.

Integrating AI While Still Prioritizing People

In attending recent business events, I would occasionally worry about what would be discussed regarding AI becoming dominant in the world – and business in particular. However, this time I felt more confident about it, as many of the sessions were embracing AI. Additionally, they centered their focus on using AI as a resource when scaling your business.

The calculator didn't replace our brains, but it has certainly changed the way people accomplish work in various career fields. It's a tool that can be used to make things more efficient.

AI, on the other hand, is a different beast. In one of the sessions led by Hank Prybylski, EY Global Vice Chair - Transformation, he emphasized the trend of putting people and machines together to create new possibilities.

My experience aligns with this AI trend. With our companies, it's more about a blend of AI and people, rather than AI completely taking over.

As worried as I've been about AI, I'm now starting to see the opportunity it can present for businesses to scale. That is if it's used the right way, with human influence involved.

The trends shaping the business landscape in 2024 are certainly diverse and dynamic. From aligning purpose goals to expanding products into communities, successful businesses are those that adapt to different trends and leverage them to their advantage.

By staying attuned to the ever-changing business environment and implementing new innovative strategies, entrepreneurs can position their businesses for sustained growth in the future.

Inc

Nigeria’s foreign reserves dropped by $4.07 billion in 11 months of 2023 amid Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) intervention in the foreign exchange market.

Nigeria’s foreign exchange buffer closed November 30, 2023 at $33 billion; dropping by nearly 11 per cent or $4.07 billion from $37.069 billion it opened this year.

CBN governor, Olayemi Cardoso, recently disclosed that it responded to the backlog of foreign exchange forward obligations with payments made to 31 banks.

According to him, “We have been subjecting these payments to detailed verification to ensure only valid transactions are honoured. In a properly functioning market, it is reasonable to expect significant FX liquidity, with daily trade potentially exceeding $1 billion. We envision that, with discipline and focused commitment, foreign exchange reserves can be rebuilt to comparable levels with similar economies.”

Nigeria’s foreign reserves, recorded one of its highest decline in November 2023, dropping by 1.17 per cent or $392.08 million to $33 billion as of November 2023 from $33.396 billion it closed October 2023.

In October 2023, the foreign reserves had gained 0.48 per cent or $158.5 million to $33.396 billion.

The downward trend in foreign reserves continued to mount pressure on the naira at the official market closing November 2023 at N942.117 against the dollar from N448.55 against the dollar it opened this year. 

Analysts attributed the depletion of the foreign reserves to CBN clearing backlog in the aviation sector, and among other sectors.  

Vice President, Highcap Securities Limited, David Adnori noted that continuous intervention, external debt servicing and the lower foreign exchange inflow from oil exports contributed to the dwindled foreign reserves in 11 months of 2023.

He added, “The country has struggled to meet the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) oil production quota in the past few years, robbing it the opportunity to benefit from the elevated oil prices, which should shove up the external reserves.”

On their part, analysts at Cordros Research described the International Monetary Fund (IMF), reserve liabilities as all foreign exchange liabilities to residents and non-residents, including commitments to sell foreign exchange arising from derivatives (such as futures, forwards, swaps, and options) and all credit outstanding from the Fund.

“Also, the following are excluded from reserve assets: any assets that are pledged, collateralized, or otherwise encumbered, claims on residents, claims in foreign exchange arising from derivatives in foreign currencies vis-a-vis domestic currency (such as futures, forwards, swaps, and options), precious metals other than gold, assets in nonconvertible currencies, and illiquid assets.

“Based on the methods above and using data from the CBN’s 2022 financial statement, Nigeria’s international foreign exchange  liquidity position and (2) net foreign reserves as of the end of 2022. In line with the CBN’s guidance, N461.50 against the dollar is the exchange rate we used in converting the naira balances to US dollars.

“Based on the analysis above, the CBN’s foreign currency liquidity position is exceptionally lower than the gross FX reserves as of the end of 2022. Using the gross FX reserve ($ 33.88 billion) as of 10 August and holding the FCD constant, we estimate that the CBN’s liquid reserves are currently at $11.87 billion (or 35.0 percent of gross foreign exchange reserves as of 10 August), ”Cordros explained.

They added that the low international liquidity position clarifies why the CBN’s FX supply to the official windows has been underwhelming in the past three years even when the gross FX reserves settled as high as $41.57 billion in September 2021.”

“The significant implication of the low CBN’s international FX liquidity position is that the apex bank’s FX intervention to support the domestic currency will remain underwhelming until there is a significant FX inflow to the CBN and the economy. The preceding will also likely erode foreign investors’ confidence in the economy. Asides from the aforementioned, given that (1) foreign investors have chosen to remain on the sidelines amid the current prohibitively low domestic interest rates and (2) export earnings remain low, we expect the naira to remain on the backfoot and depreciate further against the US dollar in the near term.

“The expected lingering exchange rate pressure also implies that domestic inflationary pressures will be sustained over the rest of the year, more so that PMS prices are expected to remain high. Given the CBN’s low international foreign currency liquidity position, foreign investors may demand higher yields on Nigeria’s sovereign instruments, making the country’s external borrowing costs remain prohibitively high.

“Asides from the lack of will to approach the IMF for funding assistance, Nigeria’s unwillingness to embark on currency and fiscal reforms has been at the core of the reasons the country has been unwilling to meet the IMF for funding support. Thus, given that the government is rapidly churning out reforms after embarking on FX and PMS subsidy reforms, we believe this is the perfect opportunity for the country to approach the IMF for funding support”, they said.

“In this instance, the government will not need to do much as the majority of what the IMF will demand, as conditions are what the country is already embarking upon. In our view, removing gasoline subsidies and floating the currency without plans to boost the FX supply in the short term will take the country back to where it was before the reforms. Indeed, recent developments in the FX space suggest the CBN is managing closing rates at the official FX market, given that the exchange rate, in recent times, has been trading within the N740.00 – N780.00/USD band despite the meagre FX supply relative to demand.

“Over the medium term, diversifying the economy’s export base is paramount to solving the reoccurring exchange rate issues. Nigeria needs to look beyond crude oil and earn more from stable exports – it is non-negotiable,” the report added.

Thisday

Several workers at federal ministries, departments and agencies (MDAs) are yet to receive their November salaries.

One of the affected civil servants who spoke with TheCable said some workers at the federal ministry of labour and employment have not been paid since October.

The staff, who asked not to be named, said they were told that the government is broke.

“Only a few members of staff have been paid half of their November salary while the previous two months are still outstanding,” the labour ministry worker said.

Some of the workers said they have received no explanation from the authorities regarding the reason for the delay.

‘TECHNICAL GLITCH’

Bawa Mokwa, director of press at the office of the accountant-general of the federation, said the delay in the payment of November salaries was due to a “glitch”.

Mokwa, who spoke on Tuesday via a phone call with TheCable, said the integrated personnel and payroll information system (IPPIS) unit, which is responsible for the payment, had technical issues.

The director of press said the issue had been sorted, assuring that all the workers would be paid. 

“I just left the IPPIS office. It has been confirmed, the director in charge of the payment said they have done what they are supposed to do,” he said.

“It was a glitch and it has been settled today. All errors have also been corrected. You can quote me. All federal workers will receive their November salary tonight.”

TheCable had recently reported that the December salaries of over 5,000 federal civil servants may be delayed due to discrepancies in dates of first appointment and birth.

Tommy Okon, national president of the Association of Senior Civil Servants of Nigeria (ASCSN), had said the union was working with the head of civil service of the federation to resolve the issues.

The Cable

After starting the week in the red zone, the Nigerian Exchange Limited on Tuesday, closed in the green zone with N166bn gain.

Losses recorded in the equities of some medium-cap companies dragged the market capitalisation of the Nigerian Exchange Limited to a loss of N259bn on Monday.

Recouping part of the previous day’s losses, both the market capitalisation and the All-Share Index rose by 0.43 per cent to close at N38.989tn and 71,250.17 respectively.

The drivers of the market trend were primarily the stocks of AccessCorp,  United Bank for Africa, Zenith Bank Plc, FBNHoldings, and MTN Nigeria.

Transaction volume rose by 20.93 per cent to  433.57 million from 358.53 million traded on Monday. The units were valued at over N11.11bn, signalling a 56.53 per cent increase over Monday’s trade value. The shares were exchanged in 7,016 deals and the number of stocks that saw some action during the day’s trading stood at 122.

The number of gainers surged to 40, chiefly led by stocks of Secure Electronic Technology Plc, Multiverse, Sunu Assurance, FBNH, and Thomas Wyatt with 10.00 per cent,  9.95 per cent, and 9.92 per cent gains each to close at N0.77, N7.07, N1.33, N26.75 and N3.02 per unit respectively.

Abbey Mortgage Bank Plc led the decliners’ chart with a 9.88 per cent depreciation to N1.55. FTN Cocoa Processors Plc lost N9.09 per cent to close at N1.5, Daar Communications saw its shares decline by 8.82 per cent to close at N0.31 per unit, Coronation Insurance Plc, which is in the middle of acquiring the shares of minority shareholders and subsequently delisting from the NGX, had 7.14 per cent shaved off its share value to close at N0.65 and Veritas Kapital Assurance Plc, which just announced Dr Adaobi Nwakuche as its Managing Director lost 5.41 per cent to close at N0.35 per unit.

The value drivers of the day’s market trend were the Nigeria Infrastructure Debt Fund, managed by Chapel Hill Denham, which on Monday announced a special distribution to unit holders off the sale of an asset. It traded 20,517,592 units valued at N2.22bn in 54 trades.

Airtel Africa had 1,202,823 of its shares worth N2.12bn exchanged in 31 deals, MTN Nigeria saw 5,575,900 units of its shares amounting to N1.33bn exchanged hands in 249 deals. Over 58.297 million units of UBA’s shares worth N1.24bn were exchanged in 426 deals and UAC Nigeria had the highest volume traded at 61,710,833 units of its shares valued at N947.411m exchanged in 78 deals.

Punch

Israel moves into Gaza's second-largest city and intensifies strikes in bloody new phase of the war

Israel said Tuesday that its troops had entered Gaza’s second-largest city as intensified bombardment sent streams of ambulances and cars racing to hospitals with wounded and dead Palestinians, including children, in a bloody new phase of the war.

The military said its forces were “in the heart” of Khan Younis, which has emerged as the first target in the expanded ground offensive into southern Gaza that Israel says aims to destroy Hamas. Military officials said they were engaged in the “most intense day” of battles since the ground offensive began more than five weeks ago, with heavy firefights also taking place in northern Gaza.

The assault into the south threatens to fuel a new wave of displaced Palestinians and a worsening of Gaza’s humanitarian catastrophe. The U.N. said 1.87 million people — more than 80% of Gaza’s population — have been driven from their homes, and that fighting is now preventing distribution of food, water and medicine outside a tiny sliver of southern Gaza. New military evacuation orders are squeezing people into ever-smaller areas of the south.

Bombardment has grown fiercer across the territory, including areas where Palestinians are told to seek safety. In the central Gaza town of Deir al-Balah, just north of Khan Younis, a strike Tuesday destroyed a house where dozens of displaced people were sheltering. At least 34 people were killed, including at least six children, according to an Associated Press reporter at the hospital who counted the bodies.

Footage from the scene showed women screaming from an upper floor of a house shattered to a concrete shell. In the wreckage below, men pulled the limp body of a child from under a slab next to a burning car. At the nearby hospital, medics tried to resuscitate a young boy and girl, bloodied and unmoving on a stretcher.

Israel’s assault in retaliation for Hamas’s Oct 7 attack has killed more than 15,890 people in Gaza — 70% of them women and children — with more than 42,000 wounded, according to the Health Ministry in Gaza. The ministry does not differentiate between civilian and combatant deaths. It says hundreds have been killed or wounded since a weeklong cease-fire ended Friday, and many still are trapped under rubble.

Israel says it must remove Hamas from power to prevent a repeat of the attack that ignited the war, when Hamas and other militants killed about 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and took captive some 240 men, women and children.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Tuesday the military would have to retain open-ended security control over the Gaza Strip long after the war ends. His comments suggested a renewed direct Israeli occupation of Gaza, something the United States says it opposes.

Netanyahu said only the Israeli military can ensure Gaza remains demilitarized. “No international force can be responsible for this,” he said at a news conference. “I’m not ready to close my eyes and accept any other arrangement.”

Under U.S. pressure to prevent further mass casualties, Israel says it is being more precise as it widens its offensive and is taking extra steps to urge civilians to evacuate out of its path. Weeks of bombardment and a ground offensive obliterated much of northern Gaza.

The military accuses Hamas of using civilians as human shields when the militants operate in dense residential areas. But Israel has not provided accounting for targeting in individual strikes, some of which have leveled entire city blocks and complexes of dozens of multi-story apartment towers.

Military Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi acknowledged that Israeli forces use heavy force against civilian structures, saying militants keep weapons in houses and buildings so fighters in civilian clothes can use them to fire on troops.

“Striking them requires significant use of fire, both to target the enemy but also to, of course, protect our forces,” he said. “Therefore the forces operate powerfully.”

BATTLES IN KHAN YOUNIS AND NORTH GAZA

Halevi said his forces had begun the “third phase of the ground operations,” moving against Hamas in the south after seizing much of the north. Israel has not given specific details on troop movements.

Residents said troops advanced to Bani Suheila, on Khan Younis’ eastern edge. Israeli forces also appear to be moving to partially cut across the strip between Khan Younis and Deir al-Balah. Satellite photos from Sunday showed around 150 Israeli tanks, armored personnel carriers and other vehicles on the main road between the two cities.

The past days brought some of the heaviest bombardment of the entire war, the U.N.’s humanitarian affairs office OCHA said.

Witnesses said a strike Tuesday hit a school in Khan Younis where hundreds of displaced people were sheltering. Casualties overwhelmed the nearby Nasser Hospital, where wounded men and children were lain on a bloody floor amid a tangle of IV tubes. In the morgue, a woman draped herself over the stretcher where her dead husband and child lay among at least nine bodies.

“What’s happening here is unimaginable,” said Hamza al-Bursh, who lives near the school. “They strike indiscriminately.”

In northern Gaza, the military said its troops were battling Hamas militants in the Jabaliya refugee camp and the district of Shujaiya, capturing Hamas positions and destroying rocket launchers and underground infrastructure.

The battles in the north signaled the tough resistance from Hamas since Israeli forces moved in on Oct. 27. The military says 86 of its soldiers have been killed in the Gaza offensive and that thousands of Hamas fighters have been killed, though it has not produced evidence.

Even after weeks of bombardment, Hamas’ top leader in Gaza, Yehya Sinwar — whose location is unknown — was able to conduct complex cease-fire negotiations and orchestrate the release of more than 100 Israeli and foreign hostages in exchange for 240 Palestinian prisoners last week. Palestinian militants have also kept up their rocket fire into Israel.

FEWER PLACES TO GO

After the full-scale evacuation of northern Gaza ordered by Israel early in the war, most of Gaza’s population of 2.3 million is squeezed into the 90 square miles of central and southern Gaza.

Since moving into the south, the Israeli military has ordered people out of nearly two dozen neighborhoods in and around Khan Younis. That further reduced the area where civilians can seek refuge by more than a quarter. It was not clear how many people followed the evacuation call.

“Nowhere is safe in Gaza, and there is nowhere left to go,” Lynn Hastings, the U.N. humanitarian coordinator for the Palestinian territories, said Monday. “The conditions required to deliver aid to the people of Gaza do not exist. If possible, an even more hellish scenario is about to unfold.”

For the past two days, aid distribution — mainly just supplies of flour and water — has been possible only in the city of Rafah, at the far south by the border, the U.N. said. Locations deeper inside Gaza, including Khan Younis, Deir al-Balah and northern Gaza, could not be reached because of fighting.

Nasser Bolbol, head of neonatal intensive care at the European Gaza Hospital in Khan Younis, said acute hunger was spreading, with some deaths of children from dehydration and undernourishment, after nearly two months with only limited aid entering the territory, under an Israeli seal.

“Gaza is entirely covered in death and darkness,” he said.

STILL HOSTAGE

Family members of hostages still held in Gaza held tense talks with Netanyahu and the war cabinet Tuesday. Observers present said more than 100 people attended the nearly three-hour meeting. Some relatives shouted at cabinet members, perceiving they did not have any immediate plans to rescue some 138 hostages still captive. Nearly half the room left in disappointment before the meeting ended.

During the gathering, five hostages released during the truce shared harrowing details of their experience. One spoke of Hamas fighters “touching” female hostages, and another said militants shaved off a male hostage’s body hair to humiliate him, according to a group representing the hostages’ families. Others said they were deprived of water.

A doctor who treated some of the 110 released hostages told the AP separately that at least 10 women and men among those freed were sexually assaulted or abused, but did not provide further details. He spoke on condition of anonymity to protect the hostages’ identities.

Noam Peri, whose 80-year-old father is still being held captive, said the meeting with Netanyahu and the war cabinet was not a relaxed discussion.

“After 60 days, people are tired and worried,” Peri said.

AP

WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Ukraine sees 'big risk' of losing war if U.S. Congress postpones vital aid

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy's chief of staff said on Tuesday that the postponement of U.S. assistance for Kyiv being debated in Congress would create a "big risk" of Ukraine losing the war with Russia.

The remarks by Andriy Yermak were some of the frankest yet from a senior Kyiv official as uncertainty swirls over the future of vital U.S and European Union assistance packages as Ukraine's war with Russia rages on.

If the aid is postponed, "it gives the big risk that we can be in the same position to which we're located now," he said, addressing the audience in English.

"And of course, it makes this very high possibility impossible to continually liberate and give the big risk to lose this war."

On Monday, White House officials said the U.S. was running out of time and money to help Ukraine fight its war against Russia.

President Joe Biden's administration asked Congress in October for nearly $106 billion to fund ambitious plans for Ukraine, Israel and U.S. border security but Republicans who control the House with a slim majority rejected the package.

U.S. officials hope they can still get a significant package approved.

Yermak singled out the threat of no more direct budgetary support as a problem. The Ukrainian government expects to have a $43 billion budget deficit next year.

"Of course, without this direct budget support, it will be difficult to keep … in (the) same positions and... for the people to really survive...during the situation when the war will continue," he said.

"That is why it is extremely critically important that this support will be voted and will be voted as soon as possible."

Yermak was making his second visit to Washington in a matter of weeks. He said he planned to press lawmakers and administration officials on the critical importance that Congress approve the new aid package.

Ukraine conducted a major counteroffensive push this year, but was unable to break through Russian defensive lines. Russia is now on the offensive in the east.

Yermak said that Kyiv had a plan for the next year.

"We really have a plan and this plan...includes the military operations...includes diplomatic activity and of course it includes our cooperation in the communications and information," he said.

** Russia presses on with drive on Ukrainian town of Avdiivka

Russian forces pressed on with a long-running drive to capture the eastern Ukrainian town of Avdiivka on Tuesday and both sides said they had made gains.

Russian attacks killed four people in eastern and southern regions, including strikes on an aid centre and a medical building in the southern city of Kherson, the target of intensified Russian shelling in the 21-month-old war.

Ukraine said it had downed a Russian Su-24 fighter plane over the Black Sea near Snake Island as the aircraft was on its way to attack Odesa region.

Vitaliy Barabash, head of the military administration in Avdiivka, said Ukrainian forces had secured control of the village of Stepove on the northwestern approaches to the town.

"Yesterday and the day before yesterday, our side carried out very serious stabilisation actions," Barabash told U.S.-funded Radio Liberty. "Stepove is now fully controlled by the Armed Forces of Ukraine."

The popular Russian war blog Rybar said Russian forces had secured new areas around the village, 5 km (3 miles) north of Avdiivka. And the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War, quoting geopolitical footage from Monday, said Russian forces were occupying improved positions.

Russian forces have been engaged in a slow-moving drive through eastern Ukraine since failing to advance on Kyiv in the early days of the February 2022 full-scale invasion. Since mid-October, they have focused on Avdiivka, a gateway to the Russian held regional centre of Donetsk and known for its vast coking plant.

HOLDING THE COKING PLANT

Barabash stood by his contention that Russian forces had been kept out of the plant, but acknowledged that fighting raged in the "industrial zone" outside the town centre.

Reuters could not confirm accounts from either side.

Fighting has also gripped two other largely devastated eastern towns, Ukrainian-held Maryinka and Russian-held Bakhmut.

Military analyst Serhiy Zgurets said Russian forces were trying to move on the northeastern town of Kupiansk, seized by Russian troops after the invasion, but later retaken by Ukraine.

Zgurets, writing on the website of media outlet Espreso TV, said fighting had been going on for several weeks near the village of Synkivka, 9 km from Kupiansk.

In Kherson, three people were killed and at least six injured in new Russian shelling.

"Today, the enemy destroyed one of the humanitarian centres," Yuri Sobolevskyi, deputy head of Kherson regional council, told national television. "One of our medical institutions was shelled. The shelling is continuing ...and the density is high."

Officials earlier said four doctors at the medical centre were injured. They said Russia fired two S-300 missiles, also damaging residential buildings nearby.

Russian forces used the "Grad" multiple launch rocket system for a two-hour-long attack on the eastern frontline city of Chasiv Yar, the General Prosecutor's Office said, killing one and injuring five. Residents, it said, were receiving water and bread from volunteers at the time of the attack.

Russia has denied targeting civilians in its invasion, although thousands have been killed in Russian air strikes.

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

US House Speaker issues Ukraine ultimatum to Biden

Getting the Republican-majority House of Representatives to approve additional funding for Ukraine would require first securing the US border with Mexico, Speaker Mike Johnson told the White House on Tuesday.

The Louisiana Republican was responding to Monday’s public letter from Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Director Shalanda Young, who warned that the US was “out of money—and nearly out of time” in terms of aid to Ukraine and Israel. Young argued that cutting off US aid would “kneecap Ukraine on the battlefield” and increase the “likelihood of Russian military victories.”

Johnson first addressed Israel, noting that the House approved the Israel Security Supplemental Appropriations Act (HR 6126) on November 2, but that Democrats who control the Senate “voted to block consideration of the bill.”

As for Ukraine, Johnson wrote, the Republican position has remained unchanged since his meeting with Young and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan on October 26, when he laid out “two essential prerequisites: security at our border, and critical answers regarding the funds requested.”

Six days prior, President Joe Biden had announced the proposal to bundle the funding for Israel, Ukraine, Taiwan and immigration and border enforcement in a $106 billion package, of which about $60 billion would go to Kiev.

Additional funding for Ukraine is “dependent upon enactment of transformative change to our nation’s border security laws,” Johnson wrote on Tuesday. The House passed the Secure the Border Act of 2023 (HR 2), “more than six months ago,” he noted, but the Senate Democrats have “refused to act” on it.

Pointing to over 6.5 million “illegal alien encounters” along the southern US border since Biden took office, of which 294 involved people “on the terrorist watchlist,” Johnson called the situation “an unconscionable and unsustainable catastrophe.”

In addition to “madness” on the border, Johnson noted that the White House still owed Congress “a full accounting of how prior US military and humanitarian aid” to Ukraine was spent “and an explanation of the president’s strategy to ensure an accelerated path to victory.” He accused Biden of “failure thus far to present clearly defined objectives,” and to provide Kiev the weapons it needed on time.

“Rather than engaging with Congressional Republicans to discuss logical reforms, the Biden Administration has ignored reality, choosing instead to engage in political posturing,” the House speaker said.

Talks on a border security bill in the Senate collapsed earlier in the day, as Democrats denounced the Republican proposal as “extreme,” claiming it would “end asylum as we know it.”

** Russian forces wipe out Ukrainian arms depot near Kherson over past day

Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian arms depot near Kherson over the past day in the special military operation in Ukraine, Russia’s Defense Ministry reported on Tuesday.

"An arms depot of the 124th territorial defense brigade was destroyed near the city of Kherson," the ministry said in a statement.

Reuters/RT/Tass

Ukraine is battling more than the Russian army.

After more than 21 months of grueling war, it’s now grasping for the world’s attention in the shadows of the conflict in the Middle East. And with its much-vaunted counteroffensive fizzling into the snow, with little to show for months of planning and billions in allied military support, Kyiv is also beset by growing internal wrangling.

Staring down a long and difficult winter, Ukraine is fighting on multiple fronts.

“There is severe fatigue from the war,” said Volodymyr Fesenko, a Kyiv-based political analyst.

“Many Ukrainians are disappointed that a quick victory was not achieved,” he told NBC News. “But the vast majority of Ukrainians are united in the need to continue resisting Russian aggression.”

The counteroffensive

After successful campaigns to retake territory in eastern and southern Ukraine just over a year ago, Kyiv and its Western allies spent much of the first part of 2023 gearing up for a major counteroffensive.

It was touted by military observers as a potentially decisive campaign to return occupied Ukrainian territories that might even threaten the Kremlin’s hold on the prized Crimean Peninsula, which has been under Russian control since 2014. But since the counteroffensive was launched in June, Ukraine has made only modest gains against heavily fortified Russian defense lines, leaving the war largely deadlocked as the fighting season nears an end.

“We are in what’s called positional warfare, as opposed to maneuver warfare,” said Frank Ledwidge, a former British military intelligence officer and senior lecturer in war studies at England’s University of Portsmouth. “Basically, we are in the First World War situation, where you have two entrenched armies, neither of which is going to be able to break the other.”

Fighting is likely to grind to an even more definitive halt as bitter weather sets in, with a deadly winter storm wreaking havoc in the region last week.

Ukraine’s power grid also remains vulnerable — and Moscow signaled it will likely once again target the country’s energy infrastructure after launching the biggest drone attack on Kyiv since the war began.

Two focal points have emerged in recent weeks.

In the east, there is an ongoing battle for the small town of Avdiivka, which the Kremlin appears intent on capturing at a heavy cost as it pushes to expand its partial control over the industrial Donbas region.

On Friday, Ukraine said the Russians were trying to encircle the town, but its soldiers were “standing their ground.” In a sign of the intensifying battles that have Ukraine on the back foot in the region, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called for faster construction of fortifications in key sectors under pressure from Russian forces, particularly in eastern Ukraine, after he toured the front lines.

Meanwhile, Ukraine has attempted to establish a foothold on the left bank of the Dnieper River in the southern Kherson region, occupied by Russia since the first days of the war.

Russian forces retreated to that side of the river after Ukraine seized back the city of Kherson last year.

The region’s Russian proxy governor said the landing operation has been met with “fiery hell,” but Kyiv has said its troops are maintaining their positions. On Wednesday, Zelenskyy visited troops in the region and received an update on their progress on the left bank, his office said, without elaborating.

Analysts say this latest apparent attempt to breathe life into Ukraine’s counteroffensive would only be likely to make a difference if Ukrainians manage to establish a bridgehead — a secure way across the river that could allow them to bring over armor and other support. “A Ukraine success could alter what’s now widely seen as a stalemate,” said Rajan Menon, an analyst with Defense Priorities, a Washington-based think tank.

The war has reached a deadlock for several reasons, Menon said, including ambivalence and a lack of urgency from Kyiv’s allies, which meant some crucial supplies arrived too late for the counteroffensive to be effective.

But a lack of appropriate air cover has been the biggest stumbling block, Menon added, with Ukraine’s air force vastly outnumbered and overpowered by Russia’s.

“You can’t do it on flat terrain without your troops being covered from the air,” he said.

Sviatoslav Yurash, a member of Ukraine’s Parliament and a serving soldier, said that the counteroffensive is still achieving one important aim — exhausting Russia militarily.

He points to Ukraine’s success in effectively breaking Russia’s blockade of the Black Sea with attacks on its navy in southern Russia and occupied Crimea this summer.

“We understand the war won’t be easy or fast,” Yurash said at a coffee shop in the heart of the capital, Kyiv. “But we have shown the world that even the scary Russian war machine can be stopped and we can force it to suffer horrible losses.” (Both Russia and Ukraine claim high personnel losses on the other side, but have not reported their own casualties).

The latest Dnieper offensive was a surprise for the Russians, Yurash said, showcasing that Ukraine has not run out of “tricks and ideas” about how to defeat the Kremlin.

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‘Everyone talks more about Israel’

Through much of its war, Ukraine has been pushing its Western allies for expanded and accelerated supplies of military assistance, without which Kyiv’s fight against Russia would long be over.

But that aid — beset for months by concerns of growing war fatigue in Europe and political wrangling in Washington — now faces a more existential threat: another conflict to command global attention.

“The Gaza war comes at a terrible time for Ukraine,” Menon said. “It sucked a lot of the political oxygen out of the room. There’s a competition for resources no matter how you slice it.”

The United States provides both Israel and Ukraine with military aid, and the breakout of a new war has raised fears about whether artillery shells and air defense missiles, once intended for Kyiv and already in short supply, would be diverted to Israel. Aid for both countries faces an uncertain path in the deeply divided Congress, and Ukraine was already facing a shortfall on what it was promised by the European Union.

In an apparent effort to signal that Ukraine was still a priority for Washinton, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin made a surprise visit to Kyiv last month, saying Ukraine’s fight is “a marathon — not a sprint” and announcing $100 million in new military aid.

But Ukrainian officials are under no illusions.

“Tactically, the shift in attention from Ukraine to Israel made our situation somewhat more difficult, since our war ceased to be the single hottest point on the planet,” Yehor Chernev, a member of Ukraine’s Parliament and deputy chairman of its national security, defense and intelligence committee, told NBC News.

“Everyone talks more about Israel, and that is where the priority aid from the U.S. goes,” he said.

In a briefing with reporters last month, Zelenskyy acknowledged the shift in the world’s attention to the Middle East, and said Ukraine has no room for error in losing its place on the international agenda, which could prove “lethal” for the country. “We must not allow people to forget about the war here,” Zelenskyy told The Associated Press in an interview Thursday. “Attention equals help,” he said.

Internal tensions

Adding to Ukraine’s troubles, Zelenskyy appears to be at odds with his top general, Valeriy Zaluzhny.

In an essay published by The Economist last month, Zaluzhny gave voice to a sense shared by many in Ukraine and the West — the war is at a stalemate, the commander of Ukraine’s armed forces said, and “there will most likely be no deep and beautiful breakthrough.”

Zelenskyy rushed to reject his general’s absolutism, denying that the war had reached such a definitive impasse.

This public airing of grievances has raised concerns at home and abroad about the unity of Ukraine’s leadership.

Zelenskyy brushed off a conflict with Zaluzhny in the meeting with reporters last month, saying that wartime means “common interests” and no room for “personal politics” that play into Russia’s interests.

But Zelenskyy allies have publicly chided Zaluzhny for his leadership of the war, with one lawmaker launching a scathing tirade on social media accusing him of not having a solid plan for how to win and demanding his resignation.

The president is also facing criticism in some circles for signaling that he opposes holding next year’s scheduled presidential election amid the war, and Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko said last week that the country was moving toward authoritarianism.

“At some point we will no longer be any different from Russia,” Klitschko told German news outlet Der Spiegel.

So removing Zaluzhny would likely create tremendous blowback for Zelenskyy.

“Zaluzhny is the second most popular person in Ukraine, and the presidential team sees him as a potential competitor,” Fesenko, the Ukrainian analyst, said. “And now, it seems, they want to blame Zaluzhny for the problems at the front. However, given Zaluzhny’s popularity both in the army and in society, his dismissal or resignation could have very ambiguous consequences, including weakening the position of Zelenskyy himself.”

The general’s “realistic diagnosis” of the situation on the front lines caused a spectrum of emotions in Ukraine, according to Fesenko. Zelenskyy’s office issued rare public criticism, he added, because the comments were taken “too dramatically” in the West and this could create problems for Ukraine.

And they had the effect of a “cold shower” for many in Ukraine, Fesenko said.

“It helped many Ukrainians get rid of inflated and inadequate expectations about the imminent end of the war,” he said.

NBC News

Nigeria’s Supreme Court held a special session on November 27, 2023 to formally usher in a new legal year. It provided an occasion for a retrospective on the performance of Nigeria’s judiciary by its leaders in a season of unprecedented levels of public angst over the political weaponisation of judges and a set piece moment to compare notes on the dysfunctions that afflict the judicial system. The outcome was interesting to the point of anti-climactic.

At that occasion, the Chief Justice of Nigeria, CJN, Olukayode Ariwoola, also administered the oath on 57 new entrants into the coven of Senior Advocates of Nigeria, SAN. One of the new SANs was born in 1981. Two years later, in 1983, his dad, a lawyer, began proceedings against Shell Petroleum Development Company, SPDC, Ltd, a multi-national in the hydrocarbons sector, in Warri. At the time, Warri was part of Bendel State, created by the military a mere seven years earlier in 1976.

After 14 years, the High Court delivered judgement in 1997. By this time, Bendel State had ceased to exist. In its place, the military had on August 27, 1991 created two successors in Delta and Edo states and what used to be the High Court of Bendel State sitting in Warri (Division) had become the Warri Division of the High Court of Delta State. The Court of Appeal dismissed SPDC’s appeal in 2000. The company then proceeded up to the Supreme Court which took 15 years to reach a judgement in 2015, 32 years after the case began. By this time, the boy who was two years old when the case began had become a man and a lawyer, even accompanying his dad to the proceedings at the Supreme Court.

Ebun Sofunde, the Senior Advocate who related this story addressed the special session on behalf of the Body of Senior Advocates of Nigeria, BOSAN. He also told the story of another case filed by Lagos State against the National Sports Lottery, NSL, which began on February 5, 2005. A little over 18 years later, on March 31, 2023, the Supreme Court decided the appeal on the jurisdictional objection of the NSL to the original proceedings and remitted the substantive case back to the High Court of Lagos State for trial. Naturally, Sofunde wondered aloud about the fate of ordinary litigants if a powerful state like Lagos has no sensible pathway to a timely exit from the courts.

Sofunde is characteristically parsimonious with words and is not given to hyperbole or oratorical flourish. So, when he says – as he did in his address to the Supreme Court – that public confidence in the judicial system “is at an all-time low… to a point where it may no longer be redeemable”, you would think that those with responsibility to run the legal and judicial systems of the country would pay heed. He also told the Supreme Court, rather charitably, that its judgments were becoming mostly “perfunctory”.

The Attorney-General of the Federation, Lateef Fagbemi, a prince and a Senior Advocate, chose to take the Fifth Amendment. Treating the occasion mostly as a social call, he congratulated the new SANs; told them how elevated and special they had suddenly become; warned them to avoid speaking to the media and wished everyone “good health in body, spirit, and soul”. If he had continued, he may even have found time to tell the new SANs that they have become a new species that have no need for urinals or toilets!

We digress though because everyone waited to listen to the CJN. Born on August 22, 1954, Olukayode Ariwoola will retire from office when he turns 70 in August 2024. As he acknowledged in his address, this was his last opportunity to report as the leader of the judicial system. It was also opportunity to begin framing his legacy in the public imagination. He grappled valiantly with the former task but appeared to have missed the memo on the latter. In particular, his address needlessly concatenated contradictions, defensiveness, and avoidance. It read like an ode to an institution incapable of introspection or too immersed in impunity to understand the vice in arrogance.

The CJN claimed that the Nigerian judiciary had “fared well in the out-gone legal year” and is now “more deserving of public trust and confidence than ever before”. But he immediately followed this up with the promise that “we are poised to reposition it (the judiciary) for effective justice delivery”, which begs the question why anyone would want to reposition an institution that is faring so well as to be deserving of public trust and confidence.

In a rallying cry to judges everywhere in Nigeria, the CJN invited them to “never be overwhelmed by the actions or loud voices of the mob or crowd”. The paragraph before this contained the telling admission that “the true touch-stone for measuring the success of a judicial institution is the degree of confidence reposed in it by the public”, even going as far as warning judges that they “are definitely going to work more assiduously and tirelessly to make our country earn for itself the fullest respect and confidence of both the citizens and the international community”.

The CJN, it seemed, could not quite make up his mind about the state or public standing of the institution he leads. Even worse, his use of the word “mob” in the address was a piece of inspired own-goal because it appeared to fit much better as a description of an organised crime ring, which is what a mention of the judiciary reminds many people in Nigeria of these days.

Evidence in support of this perception lay in the numbers he reeled out. First, the CJN delivered a report on judicial vacancies, congratulating himself for appointing nine new Justices of Appeal in September and 23 new judges of the Federal High Court in October 2023. He failed to disclose that among the new appointments, one of the 23 new judges was his own son (appointed with the most scandalously scanty credentials), or that among the new Justices one was his nephew and another was the son-in-law of the President of the Court of Appeal. He also had “the cherry (sic) news”, that soon the Supreme Court will recruit 10 more Justices to bring it up to the full complement of 22. If he brings to that process the kind of blinkers that ruled the filling of the vacancies in the Federal High Court and the Court of Appeal, then most people have a right to be worried.

Departing from judicial vacancies, the CJN proceeded to report that from September 12, 2022 to July 11, 2023, his Supreme Court registered 1,271 motions and appeals out of which it “heard 388 political appeals, 215 criminal appeals and 464 civil appeals”. At a similar occasion only two years ago, Ariwoola’s predecessor, Tanko Muhammad, reported that the court’s portfolio of 269 appeals disposed of included 139 civil appeals, 102 criminal appeals, and 28 “political cases”. So, two years ago, “political cases” were 10.67% of the appeals heard by the Supreme Court.

According to CJN Ariwoola’s report, the same court in the past year “delivered a total number of 251 judgements, of which 125 were political appeals, 81 were civil appeals, and 45 were criminal appeals”. In just two years, the output of the court had fallen by 6.69% and political cases have risen from 10.67% to 50% (49.8% to be exact). Meanwhile, in the law faculties, professors still teach students that there is a “Political Questions Doctrine” which is a rule for denial rather than acceptance of cases.

These numbers dramatise the extent to which the Supreme Court has become captured by politicians and explain the crisis of lack of exit from courts that Ebun Sofunde complained bitterly about. It is little wonder that the only people who can dispense any form of kindness towards the CJN and his “mob” of exponents in the jurisprudence of the Italian Job are exclusively politicians. The misfortune is that rather than see an opportunity, this CJN can only see enemies. Who will tell the Chief Justice?

Charlie Munger died on Nov. 28 at age 99. These reflections on his life and career, which he wrote for CNBC Make It, are among his final writings.

My children and grandchildren might not think exactly the way I do, but I hope they can observe my life as an example of how to be successful in their careers and relationships — just as I did with the generations before me. 

When I was very young, my father practiced law. One of his best friends, Grant McFayden, Omaha's Pioneer Ford dealer, was a client. He was a brilliant and self-made man, with enormous charm and integrity.

In contrast, my father had another client who was pompous, unfair and difficult. One day, I asked my dad, "Why do you do so much work for Mr. X, this overreaching blowhard, instead of working more for wonderful men like Grant?" 

"Grant treats his employees right, his customers right, and his problems right," my father said. "He doesn't have enough remunerative law business to keep you in Coca-Cola. But Mr. X is a walking minefield of wonderful legal business."

This conversation taught me that sometimes, you may have to sell your services to an unreasonable blowhard, especially if that's what you must do to feed your family. But you want to run your own life like Grant McFayden. 

That was a great lesson that my father shared in a very clever way. Instead of just pounding it in, he told it to me in a way that required a slight mental reach. Since I had to reach for it, I've never forgotten it. And I've used his teaching method with my own children and grandchildren.

Here, two of my kids Charles and Wendy share key lessons they've learned from me over the years. My hope is that they'll hold onto all of these until their 100th birthdays. 

Always return a borrowed car with a full tank of gas.

"On the last day of a family ski vacation in Sun Valley, when I was about 15, my dad and I were driving back in the snow when he took a 10-minute detour to gas up the red Jeep we were driving.

He was pressed for time to have our family catch the plane home, so I was surprised to notice as he pulled into the station that the tank was still half full. I asked my dad why we had stopped when we had plenty of gas, and he admonished me, "Charlie, when you borrow a man's car, you always return it with a full tank of gas."

My freshman year at Stanford, an acquaintance lent me his car. The favor was more because friends we had in common twisted his arm, than because he knew me all that well. The tank was half full, and the Audi Fox was red, which reminded me of that Jeep.

So I topped up the tank before I brought the car back. He noticed. We've had many good times since, and he was a groomsman in my wedding.

My dad never skipped a point of fairness and consideration. His example taught me how to get a good friend — and how to keep one."

—Charles T. Munger, Jr.

Never try to hide your mistakes.

"My dad often used the family dinner table as a forum to try to educate his children. One of his favorite educational tools was the 'Morality Tale,' in which someone faced an ethical problem and had to choose the correct path.

I remember a story he told us about a financial officer at one of his companies who made a mistake that resulted in the loss of hundreds of thousands of dollars to the business. Once he realized his mistake, he went directly to the president of the company and told him about it.

The president said, 'This was a terrible mistake, and we don't want you ever to make another one like it. But people make mistakes, and we can forgive that. You did the right thing, which was to admit your mistake. If you had tried to hide it or cover it up for even a short time, you would be out of this company. As it is, we'd like you to stay.'

I always remember this story every time I hear of yet another government official who chose to cover up their mistake, instead of being honest and leading with integrity."

—Wendy Munger

Charlie Munger was Vice Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, and Warren Buffett's closest business partner and right-hand man. As a legendary and pragmatic investor and active philanthropist, Munger was a Harvard Law graduate and was known for his wide-ranging wisdom across a multitude of disciplines — including psychology, economics, biology, history and physics. Munger served as a director of Costco Wholesale Corporation and as chairman of the Daily Journal Corporation.

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