A West African bloc mediator sent to meet Niger’s junta leaders following a July 26 coup says a peaceful way out of the crisis remains possible.

Last week’s visit to Niger “has opened an avenue to start talking,” Abdulsalami Abubakar, a former Nigerian president, told reporters in the capital, Abuja. “Hopefully diplomacy will see the better of this.”

The Economic Community of West African States has said it stands ready to use force if talks fail.

Abdourahamane Tiani, the coup leader, has proposed a return to democracy within three years, but the bloc does not want any prolonged transition, Abdel-Fatau Musah, an Ecowas commissioner, told BBC on Sunday.

“Nobody wants to go to war,” said Abubakar after briefing Nigerian President Bola Tinubu, who’s the current Ecowas chairman.

The African Union, which suspended Niger, is studying the economic and security implications of the bloc’s deployment of a standby force.

The coup in Niger - the sixth in West Africa in three years - has brought condemnation from Western nations including France and the US, which together have troops stationed in the country.

The landlocked nation has been a key international ally in the global fight against jihadists in the region. If successful, the coup would create a belt of military-run countries from the Atlantic Ocean to the Red Sea, most of which are friendlier to Russia than the West.

The Cable

The US dollar is losing its global role in an “objective and irreversible” process, the Russian president told participants at the BRICS Summit in South Africa on Tuesday. Vladimir Putin spoke via videolink, after choosing not to attend the event in person.

De-dollarization is “gaining momentum” Putin declared, adding that members of the group of major emerging economies are seeking to reduce their reliance on the greenback in mutual transactions.

The Russian leader claimed the five BRICS members – Russia, China, India, Brazil and South Africa – are becoming the new world economic leaders, adding that their cumulative share of global GDP has reached 26%.

He noted that if measured by purchasing power parity, BRICS has already surpassed the Group of Seven leading industrialised nations – accounting for 31% of the global economy, compared to 30% for the G7.

Over the past 10 years, mutual investment between the BRICS member states has increased by six times. Their total investments in the world economy have doubled, while cumulative exports account for 20% of the global total, Putin said.

Moscow is focusing on re-orienting its transport and logistics routes towards “reliable foreign partners,” including BRICS members, to ensure an uninterrupted supply of energy and food to the international market.

Russia’s primary goals include developing the Northern Sea Route and the ‘North-South’ transport corridor, Putin stated. The first, passing through the Arctic Ocean, along Russia’s northern coastline, will ensure faster goods deliveries between Europe and the Far East. The second will connect Russia’s northern and Baltic ports to the Persian Gulf and the Indian Ocean, facilitating cargo movement between Eurasian and African nations.

“We are consistently increasing fuel, food and fertilizer supplies to the states of the Global South,” and actively contributing to global food and energy security, the Russian leader said. He blamed the current international food crisis on the West’s unilateral sanctions, describing them as “unlawful.”

“Illegitimate sanctions… seriously weigh on the international economic situation,” and the “unlawful freezing of sovereign states’ assets” constitutes a violation of free trade and economic cooperation rules. 

The resource deficit and growing inequality worldwide are a “direct result” of such policies, the Russian president argued. He highlighted skyrocketing grain and food prices as the latest manifestation of this process, primarily affecting the most vulnerable nations.

Moscow is represented at the Johannesburg summit, which runs from August 22 to 24, by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. Putin opted not to attend the event after a decision by the International Criminal Court (ICC) to issue a warrant for his arrest in March. The court based the order on Ukraine’s allegation that the Russian evacuation of children from the conflict zone amid hostilities between the two nations amounted to “unlawful population transfers.”

South Africa is a signatory of the Rome Statute of the ICC, and the US and its allies had pressured it to detain Putin should he travel to the country. Moscow has repeatedly denied the ICC’s allegations and stressed that it does not recognize the court’s authority, declaring the warrant legally null and void. 

Although South African President Cyril Ramaphosa repeatedly stated that he would not carry out the order, claiming it would amount to a “declaration of war,” Moscow ultimately decided to send Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov to the BRICS summit to represent Russia.

Russia Today

United Nations children's agency, UNICEF, plans to commit $270 million to Nigeria's humanitarian and poverty alleviation efforts and pledged to help set up an emergency operation centre, its executives said on Tuesday.

The government of President Bola Tinubu wants to lift 133 million citizens out of poverty, Minister of Humanitarian Affairs and Poverty Alleviation Betta Edu told UNICEF executives Christian Munduate and Eduardo Celades at a meeting in Abuja.

Edu did not provide a timeline for achieving the target.

UNICEF said the agency will support the establishment of a humanitarian emergency operation centre that will help monitor, mitigate and prevent emergencies, and also help the ministry build capacity for its staff.

Edu said the government will target about 71 million "extremely poor Nigerians" who live on less than $1.95 a day because "time is of essence."

"We need to run at the speed of light to roll out social programs that will bring relief to the burdens of the poor," she said.

Africa's largest economy is struggling with record debt, unemployment, and insecurity that have contributed to years of anaemic growth.

Sluggish growth, low human capital, labour market weaknesses, and exposure to shocks are holding Nigeria’s poverty reduction efforts back, the World Bank said in report last year.

Reuters

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

West ‘perplexed’ by Ukraine’s strategy – NYT

Ukraine’s counteroffensive is struggling because some of Kiev’s best troops are “in the wrong places,” the New York Times reported on Tuesday, citing senior US and UK officials speaking on condition of anonymity. 

Kiev's main objective is to reach the Sea of Azov, cutting Crimea off from the Russian mainland. Yet, Ukraine currently has more troops on the eastern front – facing Artyomovsk, also known as Bakhmut – than in the “far more strategically significant” south, according to the Times.

“American planners have advised Ukraine to concentrate on the front driving toward Melitopol… and on punching through Russian minefields and other defenses, even if the Ukrainians lose more soldiers and equipment in the process,” the newspaper claimed.

The Russian Defense Ministry has estimated Ukraine had lost 45,000 dead and over 5,000 vehicles in the past two months of fighting, without penetrating Russian defenses.

“Only with a change of tactics and a dramatic move can the tempo of the counteroffensive change,” a US official told the newspaper, while other sources cited in the article argued that even that may be too little, too late.

Kiev’s insistence on keeping a large force in the east is particularly “perplexing” to American and British officials, as Western doctrine calls for commitment to a clear main effort. They argue that a smaller force could serve to pin down the Russian defenders, and while Ukraine theoretically has enough troops to retake Artyomovsk, doing so would “lead to large numbers of losses for little strategic gain.”

General Mark Milley, chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, his British counterpart Admiral Tony Radakin, and NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe Christopher Cavoli all urged Ukraine’s top general Valery Zaluzhny to focus on the southern front in an August 10 call, the Times said. Zaluzhny supposedly agreed. 

Just five days later, however, President Vladimir Zelensky was touring the “Soledar sector” near Artyomovsk, visiting the neo-Nazi ‘Azov’ unit and speaking about the importance of the eastern front.

According to the Times, Ukraine has started to redeploy some units to the south, but “even the most experienced units have been reconstituted a number of times after taking heavy casualties.” 

Kiev is currently “tapping into its last strategic reserves,” and unnamed Western analysts worry that Ukrainian forces “may run out of steam” by mid-September, even before a change in weather turns the ground into impassable mud. 

The Times itself noted that US criticism comes from the perspective of officers “who have never experienced a war of this scale and intensity,”and that the US war doctrine “has never been tested in an environment like Ukraine’s, where Russian electronic warfare jams communications and GPS,” and there is no air superiority.

Ukraine launched its much-hyped offensive in early June, but has so far failed to gain any significant ground, losing many Western-supplied tanks and armored vehicles in the process.

** Russian president comments on Kiev’s battle tactics

Ukraine is senselessly turning its own soldiers into cannon fodder for Russian troops, President Vladimir Putin has said, while reflecting on the methods employed by Kiev during its ongoing offensive. 

“As you can see, the situation on the contact line is currently stable,” the Russian leader said, during the meeting with Lugansk People’s Republic (LPR) acting head Leonid Pasechnik in the Kremlin on Wednesday.

Putin went on to comment on Kiev’s recent tactics, which have failed to yield any significant territorial gains, but cost heavy losses of Ukrainian troops and armor. 

“They are throwing [Ukrainian soldiers] on our minefields, under our artillery fire, acting as if they are not their own citizens at all. It is astonishing,” Putin said.

Despite Kiev’s public optimism regarding its offensive operations, which were launched in early June, international media has reported that Western officials were growing concerned and frustrated over the lackluster results achieved by the Ukrainian military, as well as the loss of NATO-supplied equipment, including heavy tanks. 

Ukrainian armored units have been struggling to get past dense Russian minefields and had failed to break through fortified positions. The New York Times cited unnamed US and British officials on Tuesday as saying that the planners in Kiev had made the mistake of dispersing their attacking units across the long front line rather than focusing on a concentrated strike in a single area.

WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

US says it does not support Ukrainian strikes inside Russia

The United States does not encourage or enable attacks inside Russia, a U.S. State Department spokesperson said after Russian authorities said they downed drones that tried to attack Moscow early on Wednesday.

It is up to Ukraine to decide how it chooses to defend itself from the Russian invasion that began in February last year, the State Department spokesperson said, adding Russia could end the war any time by withdrawing from Ukraine.

Drone strikes deep inside Russia have increased since two unmanned aircraft were destroyed over the Kremlin in early May. Drone strikes on the Russian capital have become increasingly common in recent months.

The United States, which has supplied Ukraine with massive assistance in the form of weapons and other military equipment to combat the Russian invasion, has consistently said it does not support attacks inside Russia.

The Russian defence ministry said early on Wednesday that air defence systems downed three drones that tried to attack Moscow.

One drone hit a building under construction in central Moscow early on Wednesday, Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin said on his channel on Telegram, a messaging app.

Moscow airports suspended flights early on Wednesday, Russia's TASS news agency reported. Major airports around the Russian capital have repeatedly closed for departing and arriving flights in recent days due to Ukrainian drone activity.

Russia also shot down two Ukrainian drones over the Moscow region with no casualties and brought down a further two drones over the Bryansk region that borders Ukraine, the Defence Ministry said on Tuesday.

Ukraine typically does not comment on who is behind attacks on Russian territory but it appears to have stepped up such raids since two drones were destroyed over the Kremlin in early May.

Such attacks have briefly disrupted flights and caused mostly minor damage to buildings.

** Alongside modern Western arms, Ukraine uses custom-built 'mini-Grads'

Ukraine has an arsenal of high-tech Western arms to fight Russian forces, but is also deploying custom-built mini-rocket launchers that use parts taken from a Soviet-era system.

The "mini-Grad" uses pipes from Soviet-designed BM-21 Grad multiple rocket launchers developed in the 1960s, and can be mounted on pickup trucks, providing additional mobility for the counteroffensive Kyiv began in early June.

"We have equipment that we call the mini-Grad. It is made of BM-21 Grad pipes placed on top of a pickup truck, which makes it easily transportable," a Ukrainian serviceman with the call-sign "Gall" told Reuters in the southeastern region of Zaporizhzhia.

"We try to make them more precise compared to Grads. They have the same firing pattern but, thanks to extra mechanisms to take aim and the shorter distance (they are fired at), we try to make the mini-Grad more precise."

Gall, a member of Ukraine's 108th Separate Territorial Defence Brigade, said the mini-Grads were not as accurate as the advanced HIMARS rocket systems Kyiv has received from the United States but made it possible to get closer to enemy lines.

[1/3]Ukrainian servicemen of the 108th Separate Brigade of Territorial Defence fire small multiple launch rocket systems toward Russian troops, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, near a front line in Acquire Licensing Rights Read more

"I cannot say that we hit targets with higher precision compared to the BM-21, but we can drive closer (to the target)." he said.

A colleague with the call sign "Luka" said the mini-Grad has a timer, helping protect those operating it, and volunteer launch station constructor Yurii Osokolanskyi said there was room for three rockets - fewer than the BM-21 Grad.

"Why? Because we are sure that three rockets will land where we need them to. It is rather ineffective to fire 10, eight or two rockets at one target," he said. "We fire three rockets precisely. The soldiers then can change their position, recharge, and continue to fire at different targets."

Ukrainian military analyst Oleksandr Musiyenko said there were three advantages in using mini-Grads -- their mobility enables them to move fast, units that have them can fire on a target without waiting to summon artillery from elsewhere, and they offer extra firepower for lightly armed infantry units.

He said the development of such weaponry was designed to "give an advantage to units which typically do not have this type of weapon."

As brands everywhere strive to be noticed and heard, many invest millions in crafting a distinctive identity. Yet authentic brands don't need to be photoshopped, perfected, or polished to stand out. Leaders can learn much about authenticity from the late singer-songwriter Sinéad O'Connor. 

Being authentic is the most powerful brand asset you have. Consumers have grown weary of vacuous virtue-signaling. That's why 86 percent insist on authentic brands.  

As a former chief marketing officer, I've built numerous brands, witnessing both success and failure. Exceptional brands harness three factors that hold true for musicians and marketers alike – identity definition, emotional resonance, and consistent inconsistency.

1. Identity Definition

Whether you're a singer or a startup, authenticity isn't forced or fabricated. It flows from who you are –even if you can't always define it. It starts by respecting your real identity rather than curating an avatar ideal.

A courageous voice is not just respected, it's envied. Many secretly covet being true to themselves, even though a public face is selectively necessary. Icons like Steve Jobs, Warren Buffett, and John McEnroe effortlessly surpass this hurdle.

O'Connor understood who she was and how it set her apart. Her unique product reflected a blend of styles. Her brand revolved around non-conformism, frequently opining about politics, race, and religion. "I didn't want to be a pop star," she said. "I wanted to be a protest singer."

Knowing your audience is branding 101. 

As expanding businesses learn, mistakes happen. Things can go horribly wrong when you grow or achieve fame too quickly. O'Connor's decision not to play the Star-Spangled Banner before a 1990 concert was ill-judged. Underestimating her audience sparked outrage.

Yet she sold over 15 million records and, in 1991, earned a Grammy for Best Alternative Performance – an event she boycotted for political reasons.

2. Emotional Resonance

Consumers are the ultimate fans. If you don't inspire emotion, you have no brand. Positive connection humanizes your message and translates into repeat purchases and loyalty.

Maximizing brand power comes from sharing a backstory. Curious customers want to understand the challenges and triumphs. We might marvel at the meteoric rise of Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson or ponder the fate of Alibaba's Jack Ma or Zappos's Tony Hsieh.

Sinead O'Connor always elicited an emotional response. This Irish trailblazer simultaneously thrilled, shocked, and moved audiences. Her stirring backstory defined her musical product.

Her haunting voice evoked a lifetime of pain and struggle. Screaming into the microphone about her own mother's cruelty, she exuded the trauma of a lost child. Last year, the world empathized with her as a desperate mother appealing to save her suicidal son. The outpouring of empathy was a testament to the power of her brand.

Human nature cheers the wounded as much as the underdog. It's a narrative many entrepreneurs adopt.

3. Consistently Inconsistent

Consistency of performance underpins success from L'Oréal shampoo to Red Bull. Leading brands don't compromise values. For every pair of glasses sold, eyewear company Warby Parker donates to someone in need.

While laggards resist change by adhering to the status quo, others thrive on reinvention like Nike and Lady Gaga. Successful brands are intentionally provocative – the art of surprise adds to the X factor.

A bundle of contradictions, brand O'Connor was consistent in her inconsistency – singing from a whisper to a scream, converting from Catholicism to Tridentine priestess to Islam. Her trademark image continued long after Nothing Compares to You, the symbolic shaved head an early protest against misogyny.

Authenticity isn't without risk. Ben & Jerry's is unapologetically passionate about fair trade, climate, and justice. It used its authentic voice, courageously suing parent Unilever. It took a stand.

O'Connor took a stand and spoke the truth. But the world wasn't ready to hear it. In a brand-defining gesture, O'Connor ripped a picture of Pope John Paul II on live TV, protesting against child abuse in the Catholic Church. Cassandra was canceled, scorned, and vilified. History proved her right.

Authenticity sets brands apart, positively or negatively. Brand building is more effective and less effortful when emanating from within but it must be managed.

All Things Must Pass

Occasionally, leaders encounter goal-conflict between pursuing truth and commercial gain. Should they invest short-term or long-term? Should they prioritize profits or the planet? 

On the other hand, O'Connor had a clear sense of purpose. Her autobiography reflects a desire to "inspire people to be who they really are."

When global audiences describe a brand consistently, it signals authenticity. Sinead O'Connor's super brand legacy remains intact -- hailed as witty, controversial, and uncompromising. She is feted as "a mesmerizing talent who bared her heart and took on the world." 

She once adorned a wall with the phrase "I just want to be heard."

Her brand message has now echoed far and wide, immortalized for those who choose to draw inspiration from it. 

Inc

JP Morgan, an American multinational financial services firm, estimates that Nigeria’s net foreign exchange (FX) reserves fell to $3.7 billion as of the end 2022.

This is contained in the firm’s latest report titled ‘Nigeria: Reform pause rather than fatigue’.

Gross FX reserves represent the government’s total holdings of foreign currency reserves. Net FX reserves deduct foreign currency liabilities from gross foreign currencies reserves. According to Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) data, the country’s gross FX reserves was $36.61 billion as of end of 2022.

Nigeria’s FX reserves play a crucial role in defending the naira and covers the country’s huge import bills.

In its report, JP Morgan said the $3.7 billion figure is significantly lower than prior estimates, owing to larger-than-expected currency swaps and borrowing against existing reserves.

“Based on partial information from the audited financial accounts, we estimate that CBN’s net FX reserves were around US$3.7bn at the end of last year, from US$14.0bn at end-2021,” the report reads.

The firm clarified that it arrived at $3.7 billion by making some assumptions which if incorrect would change the estimated figure.

“In arriving at said estimate we make a few assumptions which if incorrect would substantially change the picture. They include: (i) an addition of US$5.0bn in IMF Special Drawing Rights (SDR) to external reserves in order to arrive at total gross FX reserves of US$37.8bn, broadly in line with the 30-day moving average of US$37.08bn previously published on the central bank’s website,” the report further reads.

(ii) adjusting the gross external reserves with three key FX liability lines that include FX forwards (US$6.84bn), securities lending (US$5.5bn) and currency swaps (US$21.3bn); and (iii) estimating currency swaps by backing out FX forwards and outstanding OTC Futures balances from an overall aggregate published in the financial accounts.”

JP Morgan, however, said that although low net FX reserves mean continued FX market pressures, the CBN still has the ability to source FX at commercial and semi-commercial rates.

“Given the highly profitable nature of the currency swap arrangements between the CBN and domestic commercial banks, we expect these to continue for sometime, albeit in smaller sizes and arguably more punitive rates,’ the report adds.

“Furthermore, authorities are in the initial stages of identifying assets for sale, which may provide some medium-term relief. For example, the President’s policy advisory council has recommended the government sell down its stake in the most joint-venture oil and gas assets, a proposal that is estimated to bring in up to US$17bn.

“In addition, the recently announced US$3bn loan to NNPC could help partly improve FX liquidity conditions in the market. We expect NNPC to sell the dollars to CBN and remit the naira proceeds to the government as upfront payments for oil revenues and taxes. That being said, the large external financing needs of the private sector will sustain FX pressure.”

‘HEADLINE INFLATION TO RISE IN COMING MONTHS’

JP Morgan said it expected that headline inflation will still remain elevated, particularly due to higher food costs.

“We believe July’s inflation print is early evidence of the impact of the fiscal and FX reforms which are likely to continue pushing headline inflation higher over the coming months,” JP Morgan said in its report.

“Higher parallel market rates in recent weeks are also likely to have an impact on August’s inflation reading and will be most notable in higher food and core prices. The core inflation measure (excluding food and energy costs) rose by 20.5% in July, from 20.1% recorded in June. We now see headline inflation rising towards 28%oya by year-end.”

The firm said President Bola Tinubu’s decision to keep a cap on petrol prices is likely to provide some relief but the exchange rate is likely to remain on a depreciating path and put further pressure on prices.

The Cable

Member states of the BRICS, the emerging market group of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, are widely anticipated to deepen financial cooperation in an upcoming gathering, in particular in the payment and currency sectors to counterbalance the hegemony of the US dollar, which has left emerging economies and developing countries struggling financially.

Based on the trade scale of the BRICS members and the increasing willingness of more countries to join the bloc, the process of de-dollarization, which has become an irreversible trend, will be accelerated, experts told the Global Times.

Data from China's General Administration of Customs showed that China's trade with other BRICS economies kept expanding in the first seven months of this year, a potent driving force for the recovery of the overall global economy.

China's trade with other BRICS members totaled 2.38 trillion yuan ($325.7 billion) over the period, up 19.1 percent year-on-year. This segment of trade accounted for 10.1 percent of China's overall foreign trade during the period, up 1.6 percentage points from last year.

Chinese shipments to BRICS members reached 1.23 trillion yuan, up 23.9 percent year-on-year, while imports rose 14.3 percent to 1.15 trillion yuan.

Since its establishment, the multilateral cooperation mechanism of BRICS has provided development tools based on partnership and joint growth, in comparison with the Western model that pursues its own interests.

In the upcoming BRICS 2023 summit scheduled from August 22 to 24 in South Africa, discussion of financial cooperation including the use of more local currencies for trade settlements, exploration of a parallel payment system to counter the dollar's hegemony and a common currency is highly anticipated.

The nations will discuss deepening the use of local currencies in trade, which is "firmly on the agenda," and a technical committee is likely to be formed to start considering a potential joint currency, South Africa's BRICS Sherpa Anil Sooklal said in an interview with Bloomberg last week.

"The rising use of local currencies has become a widespread alternative to the dollar. It's a long-term trend, although its influence is still limited at present," Niu Haibin, director of the Institute for Foreign Policy Studies from the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies, told the Global Times.

The New Development Bank, created by the BRICS in 2015, has set a target to increase local currency lending from about 22 percent to 30 percent by 2026.

China and Russia have taken a leading role in promoting local currency settlement. More than 80 percent of trade settlements between Russia and China have been conducted in Russian rubles and the yuan, Russian President Vladimir Putin said at the opening of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit on July 4, according to a report by Russian news agency TASS.

In terms of the payment system within BRICS, Wang Youming, director of the Institute of Developing Countries at the China Institute of International Studies in Beijing, told the Global Times on Monday that "it is not very difficult at the operational level, given sufficient study of multiple banks."

There has been an ongoing discussion within the BRICS to accelerate the rollout of a payment system, and the need became particularly urgent after the US removed some Russian banks from the SWIFT global interbank payments system and forced other economies to pay for its economic problems with sizeable financial tightening.

Furthermore, Wang said that the BRICS members could move to establish a version of their own monetary fund on the basis of the existing BRICS emergency reserve arrangement mechanism. "The rollout of the fund, in answer to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that is mainly led by the West, is also not that difficult at the operational level," he noted.

However, in terms of a potential joint currency within the BRICS, the expert said it is not likely to materialize in the short term.

Undeniably, the BRICS countries differ substantially in terms of economic composition, monetary policy, trade, growth and financial openness. "The lack of a unified market among the BRICS members is a major stumbling block for the exploration of the joint currency," Wang said.

Although it's not possible to shake the dominant status of the dollar in global trade and settlement at the current phase, experts stressed that the greenback's hegemony could not be sustained, with more countries seeking to reduce reliance on the currency.

Concerns in the US are mounting with such global energy powers as Saudi Arabia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates and Venezuela having expressed interest or applied to join the BRICS bloc.

"If they are in, the chance of de-dollarization in global oil trading will be much higher," Wang said.

According to the government of South Africa, more than 40 countries have expressed interest in joining the bloc.

The BRICS members represent nearly 42 percent of the global population and account for about 26 percent of the global economy, according to media reports.

Global Times

President Bola Tinubu on Monday inaugurated the new ministers as members of the Federal Executive Council after swearing in 45 ministers cleared by the Senate.

This was shared on Monday by Tinubu’s social media aide, Dada Olusegun on X (formerly Twitter) app.

The inauguration was held at the State House Banquet Hall, Abuja.

Punch

• Perishable foods worth N40b lost in three weeks
• Rice price soar from N30,000 to N55,000 per 50kg
• Border closure splits couples, families
• Reject war option against Niger, stakeholders say in final push

Ripple effects of economic sanctions on Niger Republic are rocking at least seven Nigerian states bordering the south of Niger. In the third week of the political and economic tension, about 8.5 million Nigerians living in border towns and communities have continued to count their losses running into over N40 billion.

They said since the Federal Government closed the border on August 3, perishable goods like onions, tomatoes, pepper, potatoes, and livestock are being lost, just as trade worth about $226.34 million is at risk of collapse.

Also, some marital relationships are being threatened because couples that engaged in cross-border trading before the border closure have not been able to return to their various homes.

Recall that Economic Communities of West African State (ECOWAS) Head of States had severed trade relationship with Niger, following a military coup led by General Abdlourahamane Tchiani that truncated democracy and sacked Mohammed Bazoum as the president of the country.

Seven states including Kebbi, Katsina, Sokoto, Zamfara, Jigawa, Yobe and Borno shared boundaries with the francophone country, covering a 1,608 kilometres stretch.

Findings by our correspondents revealed that the states are losing an estimated sum of N13 billion weekly to the border closure to trade, farms, and markets shutdown.

Consequently, prices of locally produced rice and other products have appreciated in the border towns because smuggling and other cross-border trading have been halted, worsening economic conditions of residents.

A 50kg of local rice sold at N17,000 before border closure now goes for N30,000 while imported rice sold at N30,000, of the same weight, now sells at N55,000, necessitating an increase in demand for local rice.

Besides rice, Nigeria depends on the route for edible fruit and nuts, peel of citrus fruit or melons, raw hides and skins (other than fur skins) and leather, edible vegetables and certain roots and tuber, dairy produce; birds’ eggs; natural honey; edible products of animal origin, and others.

In turn, Nigeria exports mineral fuels, mineral oils and products of their distillation, bituminous substances, tobacco and manufactured tobacco substitutes, salt, sulphur, plastering materials, lime, cement, plastics, fertilisers, and others that have been put to a halt.

Chairman of Arewa Economic Forum (AEF), Ibrahim Dandakata, reckoned that the border closure is hurting Nigerians, noting that Northern Nigerian businessmen have over 2,000 containers of perishable goods stranded at the border.  

He said: “Financially, our members lose N13 billion per week at the Nigeria-Niger border. It has affected us very badly in the North. We Nigerians benefit more from the trade between Nigeria and Niger, and so we suffer more than the Nigeriens under the current border closure.”

To save the farmers and traders from further loss of resources, he suggested opening of the Maje border post between Nigeria and Benin Republic in Kebbi State, as an alternative route.

Dandakata said: “According to 2022 statistics, formal trade between the two countries accounts for $234 million (N171 billion), while informal trade is roughly estimated to be at $683 million (N515 billion), mostly in perishable commodities.”

He continued: “With the closure of the border, the average weekly loss is about N13 billion in value of trade. Since the closure is on major borders between Niger and Nigeria in Jibia in Katsina, Illela in Sokoto and Maigatari in Jigawa, we strongly recommend the immediate reopening of Maje/Illo border station in Kebbi State, which Nigerian traders use to access Benin Republic and Niger Republic,” he noted.

He warned that military intervention in the Niger crisis would wipe out all the gains that Nigeria recorded in the fight against terrorists in Northern Nigeria. 

He said: “If that military intervention starts, arms will flood Nigeria.  The crisis will not affect Northern Nigeria alone.  It will spread to all parts of Nigeria, the sub-region and indeed the whole region.”

Sani Kankia, a resident of Illela local Government Area in Sokoto State, which borders Tahoua in Niger, said a significant portion of their community food items are sourced from Niger.

He said: “We are facing scarcity of food due to the border closure. This scarcity has resulted in soaring prices, including a sharp rise in the cost of foreign rice from N30,000 to N55,000 per bag, a bag of millet has jumped from N45,000 to N65,000.”

Residents of communities in Katsina State located close to the Nigerian border with Niger also lamented the downturn of socio-economic activities since the borders were closed.

The residents who spoke to our correspondents in several border communities in Baure, Jibia, Kaita, Maiadua, Mashi, and Zango local councils in Katsina State said farming and trading activities have been halted because of the fears of being attacked by militants and strange faces they see in their communities.

One of the traders, Lawal Kaita said Magama market in Jibia, which they operate every Sunday, has been deserted because of the border closure.

He said: “Maiadua market is located at Kongolam, and opens on Sundays, with varieties of goods like household items, domestic animals, and electrical appliances have been shut.”  

A community leader in Kongolam, Umaru Shirwa, who lamented the situation called on the Federal Government to consider other options of engaging the military junta, and “stop punishing innocent civilians”.

When contacted, the chairman of Jibia local council, Bishir Maito, declined comments, but he hinted that some members of the National Assembly have alerted him of their “visit to the community to assess the impact of the border closure on the residents.”

PRIOR to the sudden closure of the border, Illela in Sokoto State was a boisterous town like every other border town, where brisk businesses and trans-border trading thrive. 
The long history of fraternal relationship between Nigeria and Niger Republic is now replaced with fear, suspicion, and tension. Illela international cattle market used to attract buyers and sellers from every part of Nigeria and neighbouring countries as far as Togo, Chad and Mali.
Chairman of the cattle section of the market, Bashir Zubairu,  said that “the market was the worst hit since the closure of the border, as herds of cows cannot be brought to the market.
He said: “The decision to close the border was totally strange to nomadic herdsmen, who move about with their animals in search of pasture. Those who were already heading to the Illela international cattle market, had to divert their animals to other nearby countries. The scarcity of animals in the market reduced business activities and revenue in the market.

“As I speak with you, the closure of the border has affected our business negatively because of the exchange rate of Naira to CFA.”

 Lamenting negative effects of the border closure, Abubakar Usman, said: “because of our closeness with the Republic of Niger, anything that affects them, will affect us. This decision to close the Illela border with Niger Republic has started affecting our economy and lifestyle.

Abdallah Nasir is in a dilemma as his thriving iced block business has been paralysed following the closure of the border.

Narrating his ordeal, Abdallah said: “I go to Niger Republic every day to buy iced blocks, bring them to Illela and sell because they have constant power supply unlike what obtains in Illela.

“I usually buy between N8,000 and N100,000 iced blocks every day to sell but, since the border was closed, there is no way to enter Niger Republic. Right now, there is no business; we are surviving on the little money I saved. I hope the border will soon be reopened so that I don’t tamper with the capital for my business.

Worried by ECOWAS’ threats to adopt a military option to re-install democratic government in Niger Republic, Mijinyawa Auta advised ECOWAS Heads of States to exercise some restraint.

The border closure was estimated to impact the $226.34 million trade between both countries. According to the International Trade Centre, imports and exports between Nigeria and Niger in 2022 totalled $226.34 million. Nigeria imported $33.43 million worth of goods and exported goods worth $192.91 million to Niger.

There was also a flurry of complaints as residents of Maigatari town and Galadi village in Babura local government area of Jigawa State that share boundary with Niger Republic have pleaded with the Federal Government to engage military junta in peaceful dialogue to end the hostility and save businesses of many Nigerians.

They said trading activities have ceased in various markets in Shuwarin in Kiyawa local government, Sara in Gwaram and Gujungu in Taura local government area of the state. 

Our correspondents observed total and full compliance of the border closure at both the Nigerian Immigration Service, (NIS) and Nigerian Customs Service, (NCS) entry points as both gates remained firmly closed.

This is in sharp contrast to such closure in 2021, when Fulani women from Niger Republic, who sell fura da nono (local dairy milk) were allowed to access the town. This time, not even the bush paths known in the local parlance as “No man’s land” were spared the eagle eyes of the combined border security agencies, as they rebuffed all appeals to allow the reporter to access Adari, a village on the other side of the Niger republic.

Painting a grim picture of the effects of the sanction, leader of the Maigatari International market, Muhammadu Ibrahim said the situation has brought untold hardship to his members and even traders from Nigeria Republic as they depended on each other for the trade to thrive.

According to him, “Going to war with the Niger Republic is something we cannot even think about and pray for because we and them are one. Some of our wives and children live in Niger while some of their own wives and children also live and earn their living in Nigeria.

“All we can say is to appeal to our leaders, especially our president, to consider resolving this crisis immediately so that we return to the way we used to be.”

His sentiment was echoed by Muhammadu Danduwa, a former chairman and now the Secretary-General of the Cattle Dealers’ Association, Maigatari International market the effect of the sanction on the business of cattle trading is so enormous, because it is the primary business that thrives between the two countries.

Former Foreign Affairs Minister and ex-governor of Jigawa State, Sule Lamido, has blamed what he referred to as “Tinubu’s diplomatic naivety” as responsible for the current crisis, and called for immediate retracing of steps to save the situation.
Lamido, in a statement, advised the president to consult widely with some of his predecessors, who are still alive to tap from their experiences on how to amicably resolve some of the knotty diplomatic issues.
He said: “In the last couple of days, two brotherly and sisterly countries were almost on the brink of war neither of them could fathom or justify. The big brother Nigeria has become entangled in a far-fetched multilateral moral pretense of regional formation called ECOWAS that it has jettisoned its fundamental primary responsibility to the constituency (Nigeria) that gave it the legal authority to that membership.
He said: “I thought Tinubu would have from the onset looked into the chemistry of the cocktail called ECOWAS before taking weighty decisions on any issue that affects the region and its consequences on his country.
“There is total unanimity in Nigeria that we should not go to war with Niger for so many reasons, especially the seven states contiguous to Niger Republic! In any case the Senate mandated by Nigerian Constitution to authorise the President with such powers has unambiguously withheld that authority.”

The Guardian