Oil marketers, on Sunday, indicated that the cost of Premium Motor Spirit, popularly called petrol, would rise to between N680/litre and N720/litre in the coming weeks should the dollar continue to trade from N910 to N950 at the parallel market.

They also hinted that dealers seeking to import PMS were being forced to put the plans on hold due to the scarcity of foreign exchange to import the commodity.

The warning came barely one week after the local currency crossed the N900/dollar ceiling, with the naira selling at over 945/dollar at the parallel market on Friday.

Oil dealers said the CBN Importers and Exporters official window for foreign exchange, which boast of a lower exchange rate of about $740/litre, had remained illiquid and unable to provide the $25m to $30m required for the importation of PMS by dealers.

This, they said, had led to the suspension petrol importation by dealers who were initially eager to import the commodity.

Operators said that the only marketer, Emadeb, who imported the commodity recently, was now finding it tough to recoup its investment due to the depreciation of the naira.

Senior officials of major oil dealers, who spoke to our correspondents in separate interviews on Sunday, said PMS price hike was imminent unless the local currency appreciates in the coming weeks.

Leaders of the Major Oil Marketers Association of Nigeria of Nigeria, Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria, and Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria said there was a need for the Federal Government to intervene to address the crisis.

The National Public Relations Officer, Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria, Chinedu Ukadike, explained that the price of petrol was now driven by the fluctuations in forex, hence Nigerians should expect a hike soon.

Asked whether oil marketers were considering an increase in petrol price, he replied, “Once there is a slack in the naira against the dollar, there is going to be an effect. The demand and supply of forex is a key factor. We should also understand that it is not only petroleum products that use forex.

“Other manufacturers who import one thing or the other are also searching for dollars. So, the surge for dollars has continued to increase. So now that the dollar is hitting N910 to N940, and approaching N1,000, you should expect to buy PMS at the rate of N750/litre.

“It is simple mathematics, once the dollar is going up, have it in mind that the prices of petroleum products would definitely increase because the products are dollar-driven.”

Ukadike stated that oil marketers were still sourcing dollars from the parallel market, as the CBN’s Importers and Exporters official window was illiquid.

“Nigerians should brace for a price regime of between N680 to N720 if the exchange rate stays around N910 to N950/$, but the price is going to hit N750 once the dollar rises to N1,000.

“This is because marketers still source dollars from the parallel market, and not only marketers but virtually all importers in Nigeria. There is no subsidy any more on petroleum products, so you expect the cost to fluctuate with the dollars,” he stated.

The IPMAN PRO also stated that the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited was still the major importer of petrol into Nigeria, though another importer, Emadeb, imported the commodity recently.

“NNPC is still the major importer for now. One other company, Emadeb, imported products recently, but because this product is being sold in naira, getting back their funds is another issue since the naira keeps depreciating, while PMS imports is in dollars.

“This is why it is often difficult to go back and buy again as an independent importer. That is the problem we are facing,” Ukadike stated.

On when Nigerians would start seeing the price increase, he said, “NNPC is like the sole distributor of petroleum products now, so once you see a change in the price of petrol at their outlets, then other marketers will implement it.”

Marketers not importing

Executive Secretary, Major Oil Marketers Association of Nigeria, Clement Isong, alluded to the fact the dealers were not importing petrol despite the fact that the government recently issued licences to about six marketers to bring in products.

Asked to speak on the import of PMS by other marketers and whether they were sourcing forex from the I&E window or the parallel market, Isong replied, “The I&E window is illiquid. There’s no money there.

“To buy products, it costs you between $25m to $30m. You can’t find it in the I&E window. So it doesn’t work and that is why people are not importing.

“We can’t find dollar again, you can’t find it right now. Nigeria has to sort out the security issues in the Niger Delta so that we can increase our daily crude oil output. If we increase it to 1.8 or two million barrels per day, then there’ll be dollar in the market. So we need to stop oil theft.”

FG should intervene

On the apprehension of a possible hike in petrol price, Isong stated that this was inevitable if the dollar continued to rise against the naira, but noted that the government might have to intervene.

“Well, the President himself said in his speech that if they find petrol prices moving too high, they would intervene. We don’t want prices to move too high, nobody wants that.

“So if the dollar continues to climb, we are expecting some sort of intervention from the government based on what the President said,” the MOMAN official stated.

He further explained that PMS was different from diesel in terms of pricing because petrol was newly deregulated.

“The dealer that has bulk of the stock is the NNPC. So it influences the price in the market. Diesel, on the other hand, is different, because it has been deregulated for a very long time. So people will sell petrol depending on their cost structure, loans they took from the banks, forex, etc.

“Many things are put into consideration by dealers before coming up with their selling prices. There’s no one person who sets or controls the price. Nobody is controlling the price of PMS. Right now, NNPC, however, will continue to control the flow of the price. But after a while, that will stop,” Isong explained.

Earlier, the President, PETROAN, Billy Gillis-Harry, while speaking on the matter, had said, “So long as the naira is losing against the dollar, the price of petrol in our retail outlets will continue to increase. To address this, he called on Tinubu to make sure that Nigeria’s refineries were put back to use.

“We have requested that the President should declare a state of emergency on our refineries in order to speed up their repairs.

“That is the one sure way to go, in order to be able to predict the price of petroleum products, because for now, every PMS you buy in any retail outlet is dollarised,” Gillis-Harry stated.

Meanwhile, CBN last week attributed the continued fall of the naira against the dollar to the diversion of Diaspora remittances to the parallel market.

CBN Acting Governor, Folashodun Shonubi, spoke while delivering a lecture titled ‘Diaspora Remittances and Nigeria Economic Development’ at the National Institute for Security Studies in Abuja.

Shonubi said a lot of Diaspora remittances arrived in Nigeria in dollars and end up in the parallel market without being officially documented.

It is still unclear at what point the Tinubu administration plans to intervene in the market to arrest the unfolding crisis.

Punch

Serving Overseer of the Citadel Global Community Church (formerly Latter Rain Assembly), Tunde Bakare, on Sunday came hard on President Bola Tinubu over the fuel subsidy removal, describing it as “impulsive”.

He said poor people were being made to suffer for the corruption of a few powerful people benefiting from the subsidy regime, noting the President should have gone after those individuals, and not “punish” Nigerians.

In his state of the nation address titled, “Vice, Virtue and Time: The Three Things That Never Stand Still”, Bakare stated that the removal of subsidy is tantamount to killing Nigerians.

In 2012, Bakare convened the Save Nigeria Group (SNG)which protested against the removal of fuel subsidy by the administration of President Goodluck Jonathan.

In his address, the preacher said the President should rather kill corruption and not Nigerians, whom he noted, are now bearing the “brunt of the capricious policies of political actors and the greed of a colluding elite.”

He said, “From a wrongly implemented naira redesign policy to an impulsive fuel subsidy removal announcement, and from a drowning of purchasing power in an attempt to float the naira, to an unbearable increase in the cost of basic amenities, the past and recent months have been particularly excruciating for the Nigerian citizen.

“I am talking about employees who have been forced to trek owing to the unaffordable spike in transportation costs; parents struggling to bridge the gap between their life savings and the cost of living; graduates whose chances of getting a job have become slimmer due to the impact of the economy on the labour market; I am talking about that trader whose meagre daily income has further diminished in value due to the dwindling value of the naira; that farmer who looks on in agony as his produce rots on the farm due to transportation challenges, inflation and insecurity; those children who will invariably be sent home in September due to outstanding fees.”

Bakare noted that the announcement by Tinubu in his May 29 inaugural address that “subsidy is gone” despite not being in his inauguration speech, had “unwittingly plunged” Nigeria into chaos by a very poor change management process.

“Whatever the president’s true motivations were, it is clear that he put the cart before the horse. What is also clear is that the president was economical with the truth by giving Nigerians the impression that he was taking a courageous move to remove the fuel subsidy when the previous government had already taken that step.

“As Nigerians would later learn, subsidy payment had already been ended by the Buhari administration, and no subsidy was paid in 2023 even though there was provision for it on paper up to June 2023.”

According to Bakare, the President “in line with change management principles” should have handled more circumspectly the announcement of such an issue that borders on the livelihood of the Nigerian citizen.

He observed that, that would have spared Nigerians “the reactionary scarcity and price hikes that immediately followed his announcement.”

“Furthermore, what is even clearer is that the president had been handed a month of grace by the previous administration; a month that should have been used to put in place cushioning effects before the official expiration of the subsidised economy.

“What is further clear concerning our domestic challenges is that, by imposing hardship on Nigerians without going after those corrupt individuals, corporations and government officials who have plundered Nigeria over the years in the name of subsidy, the president has picked the wrong fight,” he added.

He recalled that the 2012 protest against subsidy removal, saying the fight then was against the corruption in the system, adding, “This was our fight when, amid the threats to my life and family, right there at Ojota and live on national and international television, I called out by name those individual and corporate entities who had allegedly ravaged our nation.

“Mr President, given the complexity of the Nigerian economy, we are not thoroughly convinced that your palliatives will be sufficient to cushion the effect of your policies on the Nigerian citizen.”

He said the demand 11 years ago was for the current occupant of the Office of the President, to “Kill Corruption, Not Nigerians.”

“Some might say that you, Mr President, are too tainted to fight corruption because you were escorted into the presidency by a retinue of corruption allegations. Some might even describe you as transparently opaquely corrupt because, despite the indicators of state capture allegedly linked to you, no one has proved these allegations against you in any Nigerian court of competent jurisdiction.

“Some might argue that even the road you took to the presidency was itself paved with filth from the cesspool of corruption and that you are, therefore, incapable of mounting any genuine fight against corruption. Mr President, while we admit that, as of today, our nation has transitioned from an administration that came to power on the supposed wings of integrity and anti-corruption to one that cannot be described as such, the fact remains that you are today the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria with enormous powers to fight against corruption in its hydra-headed forms.”

The Cable

Coup leaders in Niger are open to diplomacy to resolve a standoff with West Africa's regional bloc, a group of senior Nigerian Islamic scholars said on Sunday after meeting the junta in Niamey.

Their visit comes as the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) explores its options to restore civilian rule in Niger, including potential military intervention, following the July 26 ouster of President Mohamed Bazoum - the seventh coup in West and Central Africa in three years.

In a sign the bloc is still pushing for a peaceful resolution, ECOWAS chairman and Nigerian President Bola Tinubu approved Saturday's mission to Niamey by the delegation of Islamic scholars, who had vowed to promote dialogue.

The group's meeting with junta leader Abdourahamane Tiani lasted several hours, said Abdullahi Bala Lau, who led the delegation.

"He said their doors were open to explore diplomacy and peace in resolving the matter," Lau said in a statement on Sunday.

Tiani reportedly emphasised the historic ties between Niger and Nigeria, saying the countries "were not only neighbours but brothers and sisters who should resolve issues amicably".

There was no immediate comment from the junta on the meeting, but Tiani's reported comments are one of few recent signs he is open to negotiation.

The coup leaders' previous rebuffs of diplomatic efforts by ECOWAS, the United States and others had raised the spectre of further conflict in the impoverished Sahel region of West Africa, which is already dealing with a deadly Islamist insurgency.

With diplomacy faltering last week, ECOWAS activated a standby military force it said would be deployed as a last resort if talks failed.

For now, the bloc is pursuing efforts for further negotiations. On Saturday, the bloc's parliament said it would ask Tinubu, who holds the bloc's revolving chairmanship, to get his permission to go to Niger, its spokesperson said.

SHORING UP SUPPORT

Any military intervention by the bloc could further strain regional ties as juntas in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Guinea have voiced support for Niger's new military authorities.

On Saturday, Tiani sent a delegation, led by his defence chief General Moussa Salaou Barmou, to the Guinean capital Conakry to thank leaders there for their support - a sign of the junta's desire to affirm alliances as it stands up to regional and other powers.

"We are pan-African. When our people have problems, we are always present, and we will always be there," Guinea's interim president, Mamady Doumbouya, said at the meeting, according to a video shared late on Saturday night by the presidency.

In the footage, Doumbouya - who led a coup in Guinea in September 2021 - did not say whether Conakry's support for the Niger junta would include military backing if ECOWAS decided to use military force. Mali and Burkina Faso have already said they would help defend Niger.

At stake is not just the fate of Niger - a major uranium producer and Western ally in the fight against the Islamists - but also the influence of rival global powers with strategic interests in the region.

U.S., French, German and Italian troops are stationed in Niger, in a region where local affiliates of al Qaeda and Islamic State have killed thousands and displaced millions.

Meanwhile, Russian influence has grown as insecurity increases, democracy erodes, and leaders seek new partners to restore order.

Western powers fear Russia's clout could increase if the junta in Niger follows Mali and Burkina Faso, which ejected the troops of former colonial power France after coups in those countries.

Reuters

Peter Obi, presidential candidate of the Labour Party (LP) in the last elections, says diplomacy remains the most viable option in a bid to restore democracy to Niger Republic. 

In a series of tweets on Sunday, Obi said the situation in Niger should be treated with urgency. 

He said Niger needs all the external assistance it can get to return to constitutional democracy.

“Recent developments in the neighbouring Niger Republic have become the subject of international attention,” Obi said.

“For Nigeria, this development is a matter of dire and urgent national interest and security.

“Inevitably, Niger is a hot-button issue for ECOWAS, as well as various international interlocutors.

“Regardless of the positions taken by various parties that have direct or tangential interests in Niger, primacy must be given to dialogue and diplomacy towards a resolution with minimal disruptive impact on Nigeria and the West African sub-region. 

“A total diplomatic resolution must take into consideration the realpolitik of the West African sub-region. 

“All national, regional and international assistance should be extended to the people of Niger to return their country to normalcy.”

Obi added that Nigeria’s role in resolving the Niger crisis remains critical.

“While ECOWAS must seek to discourage the spread of military dictatorships in West Africa, the recourse to armed deterrence must be restrained by multilateral diplomatic mechanisms,” he said. 

“What the situation in Niger urgently calls for is a concerted multilateral coalition of Nigeria, ECOWAS, the AU and the UN towards a programmed return to a democratic constitutional order.

“In this process, Nigeria’s leadership role must not be in any doubt.”

Punch

Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) says only a government with no priority for its citizens’ security would go to war.

In July, Amadou Abdramane, a colonel-major, in the Niger Republic announced the removal of President Mohamed Bazoum from office in a coup.

On Thursday, Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), during its second extraordinary meeting, directed the deployment of standby military troops to restore constitutional order in the Niger Republic.

Reacting to the development in a statement on Sunday, Debo Ologunagba, national publicity secretary of the PDP, claimed President Bola Tinubu is desperate to plunge Nigeria into war by dragging the country’s military into conflict with Niger Republic.

“The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) strongly condemns the desperation by @officialABAT and the All Progressives Congress (APC) to plunge Nigeria into a state of war by dragging our military into a needless conflict with Niger Republic,” he said.

“While the PDP frowns at unconstitutional change of government in any part of the world, our party holds that the situation in Niger Republic does not warrant any external peace-keeping effort and does not constitute any threat whatsoever to our national interest to justify committing our already overstretched military to harm’s way in a needless war.

“The insistence of the APC government to go to war in Niger Republic is already heightening tension in Nigeria.

“The PDP holds that nothing else can explain why the APC administration is eager to go to war in Niger Republic while it has practically turned a blind eye to the insecurity situation in our country, even with the mindless killing of over 500 innocent Nigerians in Plateau, Benue, Niger, Kaduna and other states of the federation since May 2023.

“Also distressing is that the APC is ready to deploy billions of naira to prosecute a needless war despite our ailing national economy, crippled production sector, energy crisis, massive unemployment, frightening fall in the value of the naira and excruciating hardship in the country occasioned by its ill-informed, hasty and ill-implemented policies.

“Such can only come from an anti-people administration that has no iota of interest in the security and wellbeing of the nation and its citizens.”

The Cable

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

Berlin calls for more diplomatic efforts to end Ukraine conflict

The recent summit on Ukraine in Jeddah was a “very special” event, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has said, calling for a greater diplomatic effort to end the ongoing conflict between Moscow and Kiev.

Scholz made the remarks in his major annual summer interview with German broadcaster ZDF, which aired on Sunday. The chancellor urged further diplomatic effort, stating it was actually useful to “press” Russia.

“It makes sense for us to continue these talks because they increase the pressure on Russia to realize that it has taken the wrong path and that it must withdraw its troops and make peace possible,” Scholz stated.

The chancellor also noted a similar diplomatic event hosted by Denmark in June, stating that these talks and the summit hosted by Saudi Arabia were both “very special” events.

“They are very important and they are really only the beginning,” Scholz stated.

The Jeddah meeting, which brought together security advisers and senior diplomats from the participating nations, failed to yield any meaningful results. Effectively, the participants have only agreed that the UN Charter as well as Ukraine’s territorial integrity should be respected.

Moscow has dismissed the Saudi-hosted negotiations, with Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova stating that “without Russia’s participation and without taking into account its interests, no meeting on the Ukraine crisis has any added value.”

Asked about the prospects of further military support to Ukraine and in particular the reportedly imminent delivery of Taurus long-range cruise missiles, the German chancellor failed to provide a direct answer.

“As in the past, we will always review every single decision very carefully, what is possible, what makes sense, what can be our contribution,” Scholz said.

Unlike many Western countries, Germany has long resisted Ukrainian demands to supply increasingly sophisticated military hardware. The situation changed early this year, when Berlin gave in to mounting pressure and agreed to deliver Leopard 2 main battle tanks, as well as enabling third parties to re-export German-made military vehicles to Ukraine.

** Ukrainian counteroffensive falling short of NATO expectations – The Times

NATO was overly optimistic about the Ukrainian military’s ability to regain ground before its summer counteroffensive, The Times reported on Saturday, citing an unnamed US officer. The British newspaper noted that officials in Kiev had begun blaming their Western backers for their supposed lack of resolve.

In its article penned by Mark Galeotti, the author of more than 20 books on Russia, The Times quoted an anonymous US army officer involved in the training of Ukrainian service members. “Nato expected miracles, and the Ukrainians promised them,” he said, adding that “you can’t run a war on optimism.”

Another US official told the media outlet that “we haven’t quite closed the book on 2023, but we are ramping up our thinking about 2024.”

The report claimed that neither Russia nor Ukraine can make any decisive advances at present, with the latter now touting the capture of individual villages as a sign of success.

The author estimates that Kiev has two months at most to turn the tide before autumn rains start making the ground impassable for military hardware in November.

Strong defense fortifications and extensive minefields set up by Russian forces in southern Ukraine were among the reasons for the apparent underperformance of Kiev’s counteroffensive, the report claimed.

Against this backdrop, officials in Kiev have recently begun criticizing NATO for not doing enough, with one describing the US-led military bloc as “gutless,” according to the newspaper.

With neither side willing to compromise, the conflict is likely to continue for the long haul, the report concluded.

Speaking to the Washington Post earlier this week, Polish President Andrzej Duda, one of Kiev’s staunchest Western supporters, acknowledged that the Ukrainian military was “not currently able to carry out a very decisive counteroffensive against the Russian military.”

Also this week, CNN quoted unnamed US and other Western officials as predicting that it was “highly unlikely” that Kiev forces would be able to “make progress that would change the balance of this conflict.”

Ukraine launched its long-awaited counteroffensive in early June, concentrating its efforts at multiple points along the frontline from Zaporozhye to Donetsk Regions.

According to Russia’s Defense Ministry, the operation has turned out to be a failure that has so far cost Ukraine 43,000 personnel and 4,900 units of military hardware.

WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Russian warship fires warning shots at cargo ship in Black Sea

A Russian warship on Sunday fired warning shots at a cargo ship in the southwestern Black Sea as it made its way northwards, the first time Russia has fired on merchant shipping beyond Ukraine since exiting a landmark UN-brokered grain deal last month.

In July, Russia halted participation in the Black Sea grain deal that allowed Ukraine to export agricultural produce via the Black Sea. Moscow said that it deemed all ships heading to Ukrainian waters to be potentially carrying weapons.

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On Sunday, Russia said in a statement that its Vasily Bykov patrol ship had fired automatic weapons on the Palau-flagged Sukru Okan vessel after the ship's captain failed to respond to a request to halt for an inspection.

Russia said the vessel was making its way toward the Ukrainian port of Izmail. Refinitiv shipping data showed the ship was currently near the coast of Bulgaria and heading toward the Romanian port of Sulina.

"To forcibly stop the vessel, warning fire was opened from automatic weapons," the Russian defence ministry said.

The Russian military boarded the vessel with the help of a Ka-29 helicopter, the ministry said.

"After the inspection group completed its work on board, the Sukru Okan continued on its way to the port of Izmail," the defence ministry said.

A Turkish defence ministry official said he had heard an incident had taken place involving a ship heading for Romania, and that Ankara was looking into it.

Reuters could not immediately reach the vessel or its owners for comment.

A senior adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said the incident was a "clear violation of international law of the sea, an act of piracy and a crime against civilian vessels of a third country in the waters of other states."

The adviser, Mykhailo Podolyak, added on X, the social media platform formerly known as Twitter, that "Ukraine will draw all the necessary conclusions and choose the best possible response."

Zelenskiy did not mention the incident in his nightly video address.

Natalia Humeniuk, spokesperson for the southern military command, stressed that the Russian statement had not been confirmed by other official sources. "I believe that attention should be drawn to this and the peculiarities of hybrid warfare should be kept in mind," she said in televised remarks.

"This statement could be a signal to all civilian vessels in the Black Sea," she said, and called for all transportation and navigation there to be conducted under international guarantees. Russia, she added, was trying to assert its right to stop a ship or deploy aircraft in the Black Sea and "face no consequences."

BLACK SEA AT WAR?

Firing on a merchant vessel will ratchet up already acute concerns among shipowners, insurers and commodity traders about the potential dangers of getting ensnared in the Black Sea - the main route that both Ukraine and Russia use to get their agricultural produce to market.

Russia and Ukraine are two of the world's top agricultural producers, and major players in the wheat, barley, maize, rapeseed, rapeseed oil, sunflower seed and sunflower oil markets. Russia is also dominant in the fertiliser market.

Since Russia left the Black Sea grain deal, both Moscow and Kyiv have issued warnings and carried out attacks that have sent jitters through global commodity, oil and shipping markets.

Russia has said it will treat any ships approaching Ukrainian ports as potential military vessels, and their flag countries as combatants on the Ukrainian side. Russia also struck Ukrainian grain facilities on the Danube.

Ukraine responded with a similar threat to ships approaching Russian or Russian-held Ukrainian ports. Ukraine also attacked a Russian oil tanker and a warship at its Novorossiysk naval base, next door to a major grain and oil port.

Ukraine and the West say Russia's steps amount to a de-facto blockade of Ukrainian ports that threatens to cut off the flow of wheat and sunflower seeds from Ukraine to world markets.

Russia dismisses that interpretation and says the West failed to implement a parallel agreement easing rules for its own food and fertiliser exports.

RT/Reuters

As policymakers around the world embrace industrial policy in pursuit of a wide variety of objectives – supply-chain resilience, green technologies, geopolitical advantage, good jobs – the debate over its effectiveness is reaching fever pitch. Typically, this debate is portrayed as one where sound economics is squarely on the skeptics’ side. “There is a strong case against industrial policy in economics,” intoned one recent commentary, and embracing it “just wastes money and distorts the economy.”

But this is an increasingly outmoded view. While it is generally true that mainstream economists have responded to industrial policy with knee-jerk hostility since at least the 1970s, things have been changing fast, owing to new academic research that is less driven by ideological hostility to government intervention and better grounded in rigorous empirical methods.

This recent crop of research provides more authoritative evidence on how industrial policy really works, improving the quality of debates that in the past shed more heat than light on the issue. And researchers’ more nuanced and contextual understanding of such policies yields a generally more positive assessment.

Industrial policies are complex, and quantifying them for the purposes of analysis can be difficult. Consider, for example, China’s recent push in the shipbuilding industry. Seeking to become the largest shipbuilding country within a decade, China deployed a multitude of policies, including production subsidies, investment subsidies, and entry subsidies. There were many changes along the way, as in 2009, when policymakers turned away from promoting entry and instead focused on industry consolidation.

In the past, economists too often focused on simple indicators such as import tariffs, capturing only limited dimensions of industrial policy and conflating its objectives with others (such as raising government revenue or playing special-interest politics). A number of recent research efforts have taken a more productive approach.

For example, a comparative project at the OECD quantifies industrial policies through deep accounting of government activity, focusing on government expenditures allocated specifically for industrial-policy objectives. A team of economists led by two of us (Réka Juhász and Nathan Lane) apply natural language processing to publicly available policy inventories to generate a detailed classification of industrial policies.

The latter work is yielding important new insights. For starters, industrial policy has been ubiquitous, and its prevalence predates the recent rise in its use and prominence in public discussions. Moreover, it is no longer appropriate, if it ever was, to identify industrial policy with inward-looking, protectionist trade policies; contemporary industrial policies typically target export promotion. And the prevalence of industrial policies tends to increase with income: advanced economies use it more often and intensively than developing countries do.

Improved methods of causal inference are also leading economists to revise their views. Traditionally, economists assessed the effects of industrial policy by examining whether industries receiving more government help performed better – generally reaching a negative conclusion. It is now recognized that such correlational work is uninformative, because it cannot distinguish between cases where industrial policy is useful and not.

The more recent research uses modern statistical techniques to avoid misleading inferences. Such techniques have been applied to a wide variety of cases, including historical episodes of promotion of infant industries (such as textiles, shipbuilding, and heavy industries); large-scale public research and development efforts (as in the “space race” between the United States and the Soviet Union); and selective place-based policies targeting specific firms or industries (as in the US manufacturing drive during World War II and contemporary regional European subsidies).

The results of this research are much more favorable to industrial policy, tending to find that such policies – or historical accidents that mimic their effects – have often led to large, seemingly beneficial long-term effects in the structure of economic activity. For example, the disruption to French imports during the Napoleonic blockade stimulated French industrialization in mechanized cotton spinning long after the end of the Napoleonic wars. These results are consistent with what proponents of nurturing infant industries would argue.

Studies of recent public programs to subsidize investment in lagging regions of Britain and Italy have similarly found strong positive effects on employment creation. While these studies cannot provide a definitive answer to whether industrial policy works in general, they are informative about the prevalence of the market failures targeted by the policy and about the policy’s long-term effects.

Newer studies also shed light on the long-standing controversy over the contribution of industrial policy to East Asia’s economic miracle. The early economic literature on East Asia’s rise had argued that industrial policies were at best ineffective. Newer analyses paying closer attention to the structure of upstream and downstream linkages in these economies reach considerably more sanguine conclusions.

To cite one example, studies of South Korea’s Heavy-Chemical Industry Drive (HCI), a landmark – and controversial – industrial policy pursued by President Park Chung-hee in the 1970s, found that the policy promoted the growth of targeted industries, both in the short and long run. HCI’s effects on productivity and export performance were both positive.

Critics of East Asian policies thought governments could never pick the right sectors because they lacked information on where market failures were more prominent. Princeton economist Ernest Liu has recently provided a useful guide for policymakers confronting an economy where market imperfections occur across multiple, linked sectors. In such settings, subsidizing upstream sectors generally minimizes policy mistakes. Liu shows that the actual policies used in China and during South Korea’s HCI were in line with this guidance.

Some commentators have recently criticized US President Joe Biden’s industrial policy because it “lacks a rigorous economic foundation.” The reality is that there is already plenty of good economic research on industrial policy. While more research is always beneficial, the new literature is already providing us with better assessments of industrial policies in all their diversity, evaluating the consequences of historical and contemporary examples, and illuminating how such policies work or fail depending on their instruments and objectives, and on prevailing economic structures.

Project Syndicate

When it comes to company culture, many business owners, particularly ones that haven't been in business for very long, will dismiss it as a big company issue. You might hear terms like "we are all family here" as if to dismiss the idea that your company and those that you employ have an unspoken hand that guides their decisions when you aren't around. 

But whether you believe it or not, your company has a culture. And it's up to you to help shape that culture into one that will not only benefit your team members, but also the growth and development of your business as a whole.

What Company Culture Consists Of

Before I talk about how to build your company culture, it's important to get clear on what company culture really is. Your culture is shown by the questions that people ask or don't ask, the way you behave or don't behave. 

Maybe you have a history of always being too nice when it comes to having difficult conversations. Maybe you are really good at doing what you say you will. Maybe you have a history of treating new team members with a bit of a cold shoulder until they prove their worth? 

Maybe your team is amazing at celebrating victories within the company. Whatever it is, good or bad it is part of what makes your business succeed (or fail).

A 1000 Taps

Company cultures aren't built overnight. It's not something that you write up in your employee handbook and expect everyone to adopt. Culture is built by the slow accumulation of small little behaviors, events, stories, taps of the hammer if you will. 

What taps would make a difference in your own business? Do you share stories of success and failure to learn together as a team? Do you guide by example? Do you celebrate victories? Do you empower team members to own their success? Do you coach employees for growth? 

Whatever it is that you think will make a difference in your company over time, write it down. And think of ways that you can do little taps each and every day. Because over time, those taps make a difference. 

Now take it a step further. What if your management team did the same? Suddenly your little taps....plus those of your executive team start to compound into something much bigger.

Make it a Habit

The biggest indicator of success when it comes to creating and shaping a company culture comes down to habit. We are all busy and we have a thousand things on our plate. It is super easy to come up with a list of ideas that we think are important to our culture. 

But a much bigger thing to make it a habit to work on every single day. If you have to put it on your to-do list. Set a reminder on your phone. Create a spreadsheet or journal that you write in daily. And commit to it. After a month, it will become a habit. 

After a year, you won't remember a time where you didn't do the daily or weekly taps of the hammer and that is where the magic happens.

Inc

The only way to avoid conflict in Niger between mutinous soldiers who ousted the president and regional countries threatening an invasion to reinstate him is to recognize the new regime, a rights defender with ties to the junta told The Associated Press.

In his first interview with Western media Friday, Insa Garba Saidou, a local activist who assists Niger’s new military rulers with their communications and says he is in direct contact with them, said there will be no dialogue with regional countries until they acknowledge the new head of state. Although Saidou is not an official member of the junta, he acts as a liaison between them and the media.

His comments to the AP were the strongest statement since mutinous soldiers ousted President Mohamed Bazoum nearly three weeks ago that the junta was not open to negotiations with regional countries unless it is recognized as Niger's new leaders. This heightens the risk of regional violence and puts Western nations, many who saw Niger as the last democratic country in the Sahel region to partner with in beating back a jihadi insurgency, in a difficult position.

On July 26, the head of the presidential guard, Gen. Abdourahmane Tchiani, overthrew the West African country's democratically elected president, claiming they could do a better job of securing the nation from extremist violence linked to al-Qaida and the Islamic State group. Tchiani was declared in charge of the country.

The West African regional bloc, ECOWAS, has threatened to use military force if President Bazoum, who took office two years ago, is not released and reinstated. However, the junta has dismissed its warnings and refused most attempts at dialogue.

“There is only one option, accepting the regime or war,” said Saidou. “It is finished for Bazoum, you must forget about him. It is finished, it is a waste of time trying to restore him. It is not possible,” he said.

On Thursday, ECOWAS said it had directed the deployment of a “standby force” to restore democracy in Niger after its deadline to reinstate Bazoum expired. It's unclear when, or where the force will be deployed, but analysts say it could include up to 5,000 troops from countries including Nigeria, Benin, Ivory Coast and Senegal.

While the bloc says it wants mediation to prevail, multiple attempts by ECOWAS, as well as others, have yielded little.

Last week a proposed visit by ECOWAS, the United Nations and the African Union was rejected on the grounds of "evident reasons of security in this atmosphere of menace” against Niger. A day earlier, a top U.S. diplomat met some members of the junta but was unable to speak with Tchiani or see Bazoum.

Western countries have poured hundreds of millions of dollars into providing equipment and training for Niger's military by specialized French and U.S. forces, all of which could now be used by the junta to tighten its grip on power.

The military regime is already entrenching itself, appointing a new government and stoking anti-French sentiment toward its former colonial ruler, to shore up its support.

Mercenaries from the Russian-linked Wagner group, already operate in a handful of other African countries and are accused of committing human rights abuses. Earlier this month during a trip to neighboring Mali, which is also run by a military regime and cooperates with Wagner, the junta reportedly asked the mercenaries for help.

Days after ECOWAS' order for the standby force to deploy, it's still unclear what that entails or if they'll invade. The African Union Peace and Security Council could overrule the decision if it felt that wider peace and security on the continent was threatened by an intervention, say analysts. The African Union is expected to meet Monday to discuss Niger's crisis.

Some Sahel experts say the insistence on force is a cover to spare ECOWAS from the embarrassment of having made a threat with no real capacity or notion of how to execute it. “The bloc is acting like a poker player who tried (to) bluff and, when called on it, raised the stakes to buy time,” said Peter Pham, former U.S. special envoy for West Africa’s Sahel region and a distinguished fellow at the Atlantic Council.

If fighting does ensue, the most battle-experienced and best-equipped militaries in West Africa, either belong to Niger or are sympathetic to it, such as Mali and Burkina Faso. Both countries have opposed the intervention and sent delegations to Niger to discuss joint defense efforts.

Aid workers who remained during the start of the coup are evacuating on U.N. run flights to Burkina Faso. Several flights left on Friday and more are scheduled for Saturday, according to a foreigner who’s leaving on one of the flights and did not want to be named due to the sensitivity of the situation

In anticipation of a possible invasion, some Nigeriens have also moved their families out of the capital. But others say they're not going anywhere and want ECOWAS to negotiate a peaceful transition of power with the junta.

“(What) we want to do now is to put things in order and move on. ... We’re not expecting ECOWAS as an African society to come and attack us in this manner. It’s not the best, we are not really happy about it,” said Moussa Ahmed, a food seller in Niamey.

Saidou, the activist who supports the junta, said no matter how ECOWAS plans to invade, be it by land through neighboring Benin or Nigeria or by air, any attack on the palace will result in Bazoum's death. While he didn't confirm a deliberate plan to murder the now-ousted president, he said that if an invasion began soldiers would kill him.

“There is no one among the soldiers still loyal to Bazoum," he said.

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He dismissed reports that Bazoum's conditions under house arrest in his presidential compound were dire and said he had access to medical care if needed and still had his phone, a sign that no one wanted to harm him. He did not say how he had knowledge of the president’s condition. Saidou said he was being kept for his own security and the only way for Bazoum to be released was for ECOWAS to accept that his time in office was finished.

Those close to the president, however, paint a much starker picture.

Since the July 26 coup, Bazoum's been confined with his wife and son to the basement of his presidential compound, which is surrounded by guards and is now cut off from resupplies of food, electricity, water and cooking gas. Niger's ambassador to the United States, Mamadou Kiari Liman-Tinguiri, told the AP that the junta is trying to starve him to death.

On Saturday an advisor to the president who was not authorized to speak about the situation told The AP that for the first time a doctor visited Bazoum and brought him and the family some food. The advisor did not want to comment more on the nature of the visit.

On Friday, United Nations human rights chief Volker Türk said he was extremely concerned about Bazoum's rapidly deteriorating condition, calling the family's treatment “inhuman and degrading” and in violation of international human rights law.

Bloomberg

Labour Party (LP) has asked President Bola Tinubu to fix Nigeria first before “meddling” in the affairs of Niger Republic.

On Thursday, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), during its second extraordinary meeting, directed the deployment of standby military troops to restore constitutional order in the Niger Republic.

Tinubu is the chairman of ECOWAS.

Reacting to the development in a statement on Saturday, Obiora Ifoh, LP national publicity secretary, said now is not the time for Nigeria to be involved in a war because “the socio-economic situation in the country has so badly deteriorated to the extent that Nigeria is wallowing in abject poverty, hunger, and unemployment”.

“The leadership of the Labour Party has been following the recent political development in the Republic of Niger, and how Nigeria-led ECOWAS has threatened to lead the regional nations into a war of purging the coupists out of government from our neighboring country,” Ifoh said.

“We believe sincerely that charity should always begin at home. The holy book also said that one needs to remove the log on one’s eyes before talking about a spec on another’s eyes.

“The poor economic policies of the government, the hike in the prices of petroleum products, and the soaring forex situation have further deteriorated the living conditions of the people.

“So, with a country with such an enormous crisis, thinking of waging war against another country or defending democracy is not only laughable but misconceived and misdirected.

“We already have enough crises on our hands, from insecurity, hunger, unemployment, poverty, and poor infrastructure amongst others, I think the government has enough tasks to focus on rather than footloose into the internal affairs of another country.

“Nigeria cannot be playing the big brother of Africa when the people are hungry. We are giant of Africa only in name but we are far from living up to that expectation. The government needs to think about Nigeria first. We have enormous challenges on our hands.

“The government must focus on how to restore our economy, rebuild infrastructure, create jobs, and end killings and insecurity in Nigeria rather than waste time, resources, and energy in the affairs of another sovereign nation.”

The Cable