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Niger’s junta partially closed the country’s airspace, warning of an attack by a “foreign power” as a deadline passed on Sunday to reinstate ousted President Mohamed Bazoum.

The deadline, imposed by West African neighbors, threatened intervention, though there was no sign of any military action as yet. Coup leaders said, however, action against them was unfolding.

“The planning for this war was carried out,” junta spokesman Amadou Abdramane said on state broadcaster Tele Sahel. “A pre-deployment of forces to participate in this war has begun in two countries in central Africa.” He provided no further details.

Niger on Sunday said it had closed its airspace for international flights except for a few countries including Algeria, Burkina Faso, Mali, Libya and Chad that have spoken out against a military intervention.

“Any state from which military action is directed against Niger will be considered pro-belligerent,“ Abdramane said.

West Africa’s defense chiefs agreed to a plan for a potential military intervention in Abuja on Friday after a three-day meeting of regional defense officials.

It was unclear on Sunday at what time ECOWAS, as the 15-member bloc is known, would consider the deadline to reinstate Bazoum to have passed. Any intervention was complicated over the weekend by the Senate in neighboring Nigeria, which urged diplomacy over military action, at least for now.

The junta that took power in a July 26 coup has rejected all calls to restore democracy and warned against any foreign interference. Hundreds of protesters gathered in the capital, Niamey on Sunday, in support of the coup leaders.

General Abdourahamane Tiani declared himself Niger’s new leader on July 28, two days after the presidential guard he leads detained Bazoum. Ecowas on July 30 closed the borders with Niger and later set Aug. 6 as a deadline to restore democracy.

Niger is a key international ally in the fight against jihadists who have killed thousands and displaced millions across the region over the past decade. The coup creates a belt of military-run countries that stretches from the Atlantic Ocean to the Red Sea, many of them less friendly with the West than they are with Russia, which has made inroads in the region in recent years partly through the Wagner Group.

The US government is pausing certain foreign assistance programs benefiting the government of Niger, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said last week.

 

Bloomberg

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

France supplies long range missiles to Ukraine

President Emmanuel Macron has delivered on his promise to supply Kiev with the French variant of Storm Shadow missile, according to footage by the Ukrainian Defense Ministry in which President Vladimir Zelensky is seen posing for a photo op with a rocket marked as SCALP-EG.

Macron initially announced his decision to provide Ukraine with “long-range missiles” in May, and doubled down on the promise at the NATO summit in Vilnius in July, but until now it was unknown when they would be delivered.

In an undated video shared by Ukrainian authorities on Sunday, Zelensky is seen signing a missile attached to a Su-24 jet. The projectile was marked as SCALP-EG in French flag colors and a mix of Ukrainian coat of arms with the Eiffel Tower inside. It remains unclear how many French missiles were delivered and when.

Ukraine's Defense Ministry called the missiles by its British name Storm Shadow as it hinted that the Zelensky-signed projectile was used in a recent strike on two bridges connecting the Crimean Peninsula to Russia’s Kherson Region.

The British-French Storm Shadow / SCALP-EG is a long-range air-launched cruise missile with a firing range of around 250 kilometers (155 miles). It was developed in the 1990s and used in a number of Western military operations, including the NATO intervention in Libya and strike in Syria that the US, the UK and France conducted jointly in 2018.

Kiev has repeatedly used the missiles to target civilian facilities, since receiving an unspecified number of Storm Shadows from the UK. According to Russian officials, they were fired at two civilian plants in the Russian city of Lugansk in May, injuring several people, including six children.

On Saturday, Ukraine launched some 12 Storm Shadows / SCALP-EGs at bridges connecting Crimea to the Kherson Region. At least three missiles made it through Russian-air defenses, according to local authorities, damaging two bridges across the Strait of Chongar and the Tonkiy Strait.

The attack also damaged a rural school and ruptured a local gas pipeline, leaving the nearby town of Genichesk without supply, according to Kherson regions’ acting governor, Vladimir Saldo. The damaged bridges have also hardly been used for military needs and are purely civilian infrastructure installations, he stressed.

** Battlegroup South aviation hit Ukrainian brigades by guided bombs — spokesman

The aviation of the Battlegroup South hit a station of the 5th detached assault brigade and the concentration area of the 24th detached mechanized brigade of the Ukrainian army in the Donetsk People’s Republic, Battlegroup Spokesman Vadim Astafyev told TASS.

"The aviation of the Battlegroup South hit temporary stations of the 5th detached assault brigade near Dyleevka settlement and the manpower concentration area of the 24th detached mechanized brigade of the Ukrainian army in Novgorodskoe by UMPK-500 and UMPK-250 guided munitions," Astafyev said.

"Two 155 mm self-propelled Krab artillery units of Polish make were destroyed by Lancet loitering munitions in Svyato-Pokrovskoe and Kirovo," he said.

Lancet kamikaze drones also wrecked a 122 mm Gvozdika howitzer and an infantry combat vehicle of the Ukrainian army in the vicinity of Kuzminovka and Andreevka settlements.

 

WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Ukraine says U.S and German air defence systems 'highly effective'

Ukraine is seeing "significant results" from U.S. and German air defence systems, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Sunday, despite waves of Russian air strikes that Kyiv says targeted civilians and residential buildings.

Russia reported it had shot down a drone heading for Moscow in the third such attack in a week, while officials on both sides said Ukraine had struck two bridges linking Crimea to the mainland.

Both countries have stepped up attacks on each other's troops, weaponry and infrastructure supporting the war as Ukraine seeks to dislodge Russian forces that have dug in across southern and eastern Ukraine since their invasion last year.

The Moscow-appointed head of Crimea said the Chonhar bridge to the peninsula, which was annexed from Ukraine by Moscow in 2014, had been damaged by a missile strike. Another of the three road links between Crimea and Russian-occupied parts of mainland Ukraine, near the town of Henichesk, was shelled and a civilian driver wounded, a Moscow-appointed official said.

In his nightly video address on Sunday, Zelenskiy said advanced air defence systems, including the U.S.-built Patriot and Germany's IRIS-T, were proving "highly effective" and had "already yielded significant results."

Zelenskiy said Ukraine had shot down a significant part of Russia's attacks over the past week, which included 65 missiles of various kinds and 178 assault drones, including 87 Shaheds.

Ukraine's military said later that Russia had launched 30 missiles and 48 air strikes.

"Unfortunately, there are casualties and wounded among the civilian population. Residential buildings and other civilian infrastructure suffered destruction," the military said in a statement.

The attacks followed what Zelenskiy said was a bomb attack late on Saturday on a blood transfusion centre in the town of Kupiansk, around 16 km (10 miles) from the front in the eastern Kharkiv region. He described the strike as a war crime. Reuters could not immediately verify the report.

Russia denies deliberately targeting civilians or military hospitals in its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which has killed thousands of people, uprooted millions and destroyed cities.

In Russia, Moscow's Vnukovo airport suspended flights on Sunday, citing unspecified reasons outside its control. Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin said a drone had been shot down south of the capital.

Russia's defence ministry said earlier it had conducted successful strikes on Ukrainian air bases in the western Rivne and Khmelnytskyi regions and southern Zaporizhzhia region. It said its military launched a group strike using long-range and sea-based precision weapons and all the targets had been neutralized.

The deputy governor of the Khmelnytskyi region, Serhiy Tiurin, said a military airfield in Starokostiantyniv was among the targets. He said most of the missiles were shot down, but explosions had damaged several houses, a cultural institution and the bus station, and a fire had broken out at a grain silo.

Ukraine is two months into a gruelling counteroffensive to try to push out Russian forces occupying almost a fifth of its territory.

Zelenskiy aide Mykhailo Podoliak characterised the weekend Russian missile attacks as a response to Ukraine's overtures to Global South countries that have been reluctant to take sides in a conflict that has hurt the global economy.

Senior officials from some 40 countries including the United States, China and India held talks about the conflict in Saudi Arabia on Saturday and Sunday, but the meeting ended with no concrete action beyond a commitment to further consultations.

The meeting was part of a diplomatic push by Ukraine to build support beyond its core Western backers. Zelenskiy's chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, said the discussions had been very productive, but did not give details.

Russia did not attend. Its deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, said the meeting reflected the West's "doomed efforts" to mobilise developing nations behind Zelenskiy.

Will the United States be number three in the new world order? In his forthcoming book, former journalist Hugh Peyman argues that it will: China’s economy has already surpassed that of the US by some measures, and India’s will do the same by mid-century. He also argues that “the Rest” more broadly will pose a growing challenge to the West, which in turn continues to underestimate the challengers.

Peyman is hardly the first to predict the rise of countries that are not included in the geopolitical West (a group that includes Japan). The British economist Angus Maddison knew back in 2007 that China’s GDP would soon overtake that of the US (in purchasing-power-parity terms at constant 1990 US dollar prices), with India at number three. And the OECD estimatesthat India will overtake the US in GDP by 2050, and that, by 2060, the combined GDP of China, India, and Indonesia will equal $116.7 trillion – 49% of GDP – making it three times larger than the US economy.

This should not be particularly surprising, not least because non-Western countries are home to far more people. As Peyman points out, China and India each have populations four times larger than the US, so their combined GDP would be twice that of the US, even with one-quarter America’s per-capita income. As he puts it, “Population numbers dictate that the West is only 10%, the Rest 90%.”

To be sure, when it comes to GDP, the West has often punched well above its demographic weight. In 1950, the West (including Japan) accounted for just 22.4% of the world’s population, but 59.9% of global GDP. Meanwhile, Asia (excluding Japan) accounted for just 15.4% of world GDP, despite being home to 51.4% of the world’s people.

The Industrial Revolution, which afforded the West major economic advantages, together with colonial exploitation, help explain this discrepancy. In 1820, the shares were far more balanced: Asia (excluding Japan) had accounted for 65.2% of the world’s population and 56.4% of global GDP.

By the middle of this century, however, the Rest’s population will be 3.8 times larger than that of the West (including Japan), and its GDP will be 1.7 times larger. As Peyman notes, rising investment in the Rest, not least in education, has played an important role in boosting productivity and rebalancing global output and income.

These investments will continue to pay off. The McKinsey Global Institute predicted last year that in the new multipolar world order, “technology may move to the forefront of geopolitical competition.” Given that human capital, together with governance, is essential to translate technological progress into productivity growth, Asia has an edge: by 2030, the region will be producing more than 70% of the STEM (science, technology, engineering, and math) graduates in the G20, with China alone accounting for 35%, and India for 27%.

Moreover, while the Rest may lag in terms of cutting-edge research, they have proved adept at applying Western innovations to consumer products and services. Drawing on his experiences living in Chinese cities and studying Chinese companies, Peyman describes China’s transition to modernity, which is being emulated, to varying extents, elsewhere among the Rest. For every warning that China will collapse under the weight of a rapidly aging population, overbearing authoritarianism, a massive debt overhang, and slowing growth, there is an example in Peyman’s book of China successfully leveraging scale, entrepreneurship, and innovation to advance its goals and interests.

Unfortunately, Peyman laments, the US remains “blinded by pre-eminence,” making it “slow to see its power ebb.” In fact, it appears that most Westerners take for granted that the Rest are such a diverse lot that they would not be able to pose a coherent, sustained challenge to countries that have long dominated the world order.

But countries like China, India, Indonesia, Singapore, and South Korea have proven that given the chance, the Rest are at least as competent as many of their Western counterparts in manufacturing, exports, infrastructure investment, and governance. Indian executives are running some of the top companies in the West. Meanwhile, many Western countries are failing to achieve “social harmony, broad prosperity, and public health at home.”

Even if the West does recognize its weakening position, Peyman notes, adjusting to it will not be easy. With the vast majority of the world’s population living outside the West, the Rest will no longer accept “exclusion from global decision-making.” The Rest are not seeking to exclude the West in kind, but they do want to play a leading role in reshaping the global rules of the game – formulated by the West – for the twenty-first century.

Peyman concludes by urging US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping – the leaders of the West and the Rest, respectively – to reach a grand bargain, much like the one Richard Nixon struck with Mao Zedong in the early 1970s. Such a bargain would support greater cooperation on the major challenges of our time – beginning with climate change – while reducing the likelihood of devastating conflict.

But a bargain must also be struck between the state, whose power is growing, and market forces, which are becoming increasingly weak. Sudden, unilateral policy changes, such as the imposition or tightening of sanctions, are disrupting private companies’ operations and undermining their profitability. To uphold economic dynamism amid geopolitical tensions, the rules governing private-sector trade and investment – including any national-security “red lines” – must be clarified and respected. The country that provides such rules will shape the new global order, even if it does not have the largest GDP or population.

 

Project Syndicate

Creativity is the fuel that drives innovation, growth and vibrant work culture. It is a key element in discovering and utilizing the full potential of your team members.

If we, as managers, can help spark our employees' imaginations, we unlock an incredible force in propelling our businesses forward.

So how do we tap into that potential? We need to implement some basic techniques to ensure that we provide the right environment to encourage and nurture creativity. 

1. Share Your Own Ideas

A culture of open communication where everyone feels comfortable sharing their ideas and perspectives is ideal, but often easier said than done. A great way to encourage sharing ideas is to share your own.

Don't be afraid to say something. If you have an idea, mention it to a new employee and see what they think. Vulnerability is contagious. If you put yourself out there, others will feel comfortable doing so as well. 

An excellent structure that provides this open community is one where there is little hierarchy or at least it isn't perceived. If employees feel comfortable broaching new topics, mentioning ideas and approaching management or founders with their thoughts and suggestions.

If they feel heard and worthy of an audience, they are more likely to consider brainstorming and being innovative. Why do we limit our companies to the ideas in the boardroom?

Let's branch out to all the individuals that make a business run and if we lead by example with humbleness and sincerity, we may just find ingenuity. 

2. Team Brainstorming 

Utilize team discussions and brainstorming. As the saying goes, it takes a village! Encourage brainstorming sessions during the day with an open floor concept where anyone can speak.

This is an incredible tool for innovation, but also problem-solving. Encourage everyone to share what they are working on, the setbacks and successes. You never know who may be able to help or have a solution. 

If one employee has a spark of an idea, what you need to turn that idea into a concept you can build on are structure, formatting and evaluation. With a team effort of constructive criticism, pros and cons and building up the idea, you may actually have something you can use.

 A safe space free of judgment is key. Obviously, not every idea will be considered or run with, but if you foster an environment of openness, you may just be able to discover that one-in-a-million idea that changes the trajectory of your business. 

3. Promote Independence

Encourage independence and autonomy so that each individual has the time and freedom to spark imaginative ideas and run with them. Individuals need the space to develop ideas without the risk of constant criticism.

I encourage employers to allocate time for creativity. This is the ultimate catalyst for imaginative thinking. If employees have designated time to explore new ideas, research, brainstorm and experiment, that's what they'll do. A healthy work-life balance is critical to this.

No one is going to be able to let their imagination run if they are burning the candle at both ends. An exhausted, overworked employee is not capable of doing anything more than getting their priorities scratched off the to-do list.

Once they have the freedom to explore their own creative approaches, if they take ownership of their own work, they will also have a larger connection or investment in the idea.

This will give them the confidence to develop the idea thoroughly and workshop mistakes and challenges, so when they do present an idea – hopefully, it is a well-crafted one. 

Consider why your employees should go above and beyond for you. Are you a welcoming company, ready to embrace ideas, give them the attention they deserve and build off each other's imaginations collaboratively?

By adding these techniques to your culture, you will be on the right track to having thriving employees and an advancing business that leaves nothing undiscovered.

 

Inc

Reports by JC Okechukwu:

A few hours after signing a defense agreement with Niger Republic’s new military government, the head of Wagner PMC, Yevgeny Prigozhin gave his take on the situation in Niger and the subregion, and said that he sees all these struggles as “liberating,” calling France and the collective west “thieves.” On the major problems that led to the coup in Niger, Prigozin said, “I will answer what the basis for the change of power in Niger is. The basis is the economy. The population of Niger has been driven to poverty for a long time. For example, a French company that mines uranium sold it in the market for $218 while paying Niger only $11 out of every $218 for it.”

He continues to unload on France and the west saying, “You can work with investors on a 50-50 or 30-70% basis, but it is impossible to return to the natives of the country, who were born in this country, who live in this country and who expect that the natural resources of this country belong to them, and which according to the constitution belong to them, only 5% of the wealth you receive from their land.”

Furthermore he said, “To cover up these financial crimes, the country has been infiltrated by huge number of terrorists. This huge number of terrorists, in theory, should be controlled by a huge number of different troops, funded by the UN (United Nations), the European Union, the Americans, the British and others. As a result, the population of Niger, who should be free and happy because of the economic opportunities that existed, was robbed, and kept in fear for decades to keep them silent .”

“To show that these thieves and looters are necessary on the territory of the state, I mean the western countries like France, the USA and so on, they sent their crowds of soldiers who did nothing but receive big budgets which were also misused in various levels. That is why the transformation (coup) in Niger was simply necessary,” he added.

Speaking further he stressed that “The power that was in alliance with Bazoum (the ousted Nigerien president) and his followers, simply covered up, allowing the coalition of people who looted the nation to be present on Niger soil. That’s all. So this is a liberation struggle, a liberation movement for the independence of this country, and May God grant them success,” he concluded.

Few days ago, before this exclusive interview, Prigozhin had admitted that Wagner PMC fighters were all set to help the local government in Niger, and report has it that they’ve already taken position in multiple locations within the country and beyond. So, as far as Prigozhin is concerned, this isn’t just business as usual for him. It’s a fight for liberation, and one about which he is undoubtedly passionate. Now, that’s a very dangerous dimension because, all items will most definitely be on the table.

See the full video of Prigozhin’s interview below. This war is not gonna be a child’s play, if it happens. We can definitely do without it. The wind of change is already in full swing and unstoppable, and I believe this is why they need a war. We can refuse to be tools. We can.

Hopefully Tinubu can see this and read up a little on Wagner’s history and be better advised on what to do, rather than rushing to war after a mere 7 days ultimatum - a war that could engulf the entire region? Who does that? Stuff like this only happen when the war has been planned longer than the so called 7 days, probably even before TINUBU became president. So, if this is the case, who has been busy planning for this war that African brothers are about to execute on African soil against African brothers? Is it possible that the voice of reason can tear through the obstinate, bloodthirsty, hegemonic stranglehold on our political elites and shred the blindfold over their eyes so they can see we’re being set up for a genocidal implosion of historic proportions, at a time when we should be sweating blood and water to uphold true freedom and self preservation on the continent?

The senate has rejected President Bola Tinubu’s request for military intervention in the Republic of Niger.

On Friday, Tinubu, who is the chairman of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) wrote to the National Assembly about the military intervention in Niger, following the coup that removed President Mohamed Bazoum.

In the letter, Tinubu said the move to deploy military force was part of the bloc’s conclusions at the meeting held on Sunday in Abuja.

ECOWAS had given Niger a week from Sunday to reinstate Bazoum or face harder sanctions.

The regional body imposed sanctions on the coup leaders with Nigeria also cutting electricity supplies and closing its borders with the West African nation.

After a closed-door session on Saturday, Senate President Godswill Akpabio read the resolutions of the red chamber.

Akpabio said the senate condemned the coup and commended Tinubu and other heads of state for their prompt response and the positions taken on the situation.

He said the senate advised Tinubu to encourage other leaders of ECOWAS to deploy diplomatic options in addressing the situation in Niger.

“The senate recognises that Tinubu via his correspondence has not asked for the approval of the parliament of this senate to go to war as erroneously suggested in some quarters,” Akpabio said.

“Rather, Mr President has expressed a wish to respectfully solicit the support of the national assembly in the successful implementation of the resolutions of the ECOWAS as outlined in the said communication.

“The senate calls on the president of the federal republic of Nigeria as the chairman of ECOWAS to further encourage other leaders of ECOWAS to strengthen political and diplomatic options and other means intending to resolve the political impasse in Niger Republic.

“The national assembly to the ECOWAS under the leadership of Tinubu in resolving the political situation in Niger and returning the country to democratic governance in the nearest future.”

Akpabio added that the leadership of the senate is mandated to further engage with the president on how best to resolve the issue “given the existing cordial relationship between Nigeriens and Nigerians”.

“Finally, the senate calls on the ECOWAS parliament to rise to the occasion by equally condemning this coup and also positing solutions to resolving this compass as soon as possible,” he added.

 

The Cable

New military government seeks help from Wagner mercenaries against ECOWAS intervention, according to a report.

Niger’s coup generals have asked for help from the Russian mercenary group Wagner as the deadline nears for it to release the country’s removed president or face possible military intervention by the West African regional bloc, a news report says.

The request came during a visit by a coup leader – General Salifou Mody – to neighbouring Mali, where he made contact with someone from Wagner, Wassim Nasr, a journalist and senior research fellow at the Soufan Center, told The Associated Press.

Three Malian sources and a French diplomat confirmed the meeting first reported by France 24, Nasr added.

“They need [Wagner] because they will become their guarantee to hold onto power,” he said, adding the private military company is considering the request.

Niger’s military government faces a Sunday deadline set by the regional bloc known as ECOWAS to release and reinstate the democratically elected President Mohamed Bazoum, who has described himself as a hostage.

Defence chiefs from ECOWAS members finalised an intervention plan on Friday and urged militaries to prepare resources after a mediation team sent to Niger on Thursday was not allowed to enter or meet with military government leader General Abdourahmane Tchiani.

After his visit to Mali, run by a sympathetic military government, Mody warned against military intervention, promising Niger would do what it takes not to become “a new Libya”, Niger’s state television reported.

Niger has been seen as the West’s last reliable counterterrorism partner in a region where coups have been common in recent years. Military leaders have rejected former coloniser France and turned towards Russia.

Wagner operates in a handful of African countries, including Mali, where human rights groups have accused its forces of deadly abuses.

‘It’s all a sham’

Some residents rejected the military’s takeover.

“It’s all a sham,” said Amad Hassane Boubacar, who teaches at the University of Niamey.

“They oppose foreign interference to restore constitutional order and legality. But on the contrary, they are ready to make a pact with Wagner and Russia to undermine the constitutional order … They are prepared for the country to go up in flames so that they can illegally maintain their position.”

Niger’s military leaders have been following the playbook of Mali and neighbouring Burkina Faso, also run by military governments, but they are moving faster to consolidate power, Nasr said.

“[Tchiani] chose his path so he’s going full-on it without wasting time because there’s international mobilisation.”

One question is how the international community will react if Wagner comes in, he said. When Wagner came into Mali at the end of 2021, the French military was removed soon afterwards after years of partnership. Wagner was later designated a “terrorist” organisation by the United States, and international partners might have a stronger reaction now, Nasr said.

And much more is at stake in Niger, where the US and other partners have poured hundreds of millions of dollars of military assistance to combat the region’s growing security threat.

No details on possible intervention

It’s unclear what a regional intervention would look like, when it would begin, or whether it would receive support from Western forces. Niger’s military government has called on the population to watch for spies, and self-organised defence groups have mobilised at night to monitor cars and patrol the capital.

“If the junta were to dig in its heels and rally the populace around the flag – possibly even arming civilian militias – the intervention could morph into a multifaceted counterinsurgency that ECOWAS would not be prepared to handle,” said a report by the Hudson Institute.

While some in Niger are bracing for a fight, others are trying to cope with travel and economic sanctions imposed by ECOWAS after the coup that have closed land and air borders with ECOWAS countries and suspended commercial and financial transactions with them.

Residents said the price of goods is rising and there’s limited access to cash.

“We are deeply concerned about the consequences of these sanctions, especially their impacts on the supply of essential food products, pharmaceuticals, medical equipment, petroleum products and electricity,” said Sita Adamou, president of Niger’s Association to Defend Human Rights.

 

Aljazeera

Algeria is categorically against any military intervention in Niger, Ennahar TV said late on Saturday citing President Abdelmadjid Tebboune.

"A military intervention could ignite the whole Sahel region and Algeria will not use force with its neighbours," Tabboune said in an interview with local media.

 

Reuters

A West African bloc has given Niger’s military junta until Sunday to step down or face a possible military intervention. If such an operation were to happen, NatSec Daily has been told to expect one of two general outcomes.

The first is the “shit show” scenario, as described by former NSC director for African affairs CAMERON HUDSON. He argues that military moves by the Economic Community of West African States would lead to a conflict between inexperienced and relatively weak forces.

“ECOWAS has no recent experience undertaking this kind of operation. It’s not something they even train for,” Hudson added, noting that a country like Nigeria is still struggling to defeat the Boko Haram terrorist group inside its borders. There’s also the possibility of Mali and Burkina Faso intervening to help — not combat — the coup’s perpetrators. “An intervention now has all the makings of a regional war,” Hudson said.

The second scenario is still bad, but not as dire. J. PETER PHAM, a former top U.S. diplomat for the Sahel now at the Atlantic Council, contends the junta-aligned countries have militaries that would struggle even getting to Niger. Burkina Faso’s forces have seen nearly two-thirds of the nation’s territory taken over by insurgents, while Mali’s military only has one transport plane, he said.

Both those nations, per Pham, “will have trouble fighting their way out of the bag that they’re in.”

What he suspects instead is ECOWAS aims to pressure Niger’s military to root out the junta. After all, the coup leaders and their followers are a fraction of the Nigerien forces, meaning that the rest of the military would outnumber and overpower those holding ousted president MOHAMED BAZOUM — although doing so without endangering his life and family is another matter.

“The best armed and trained units are the special force battalions the U.S. has trained and the French have trained,” said Pham, adding many of them aren’t in the capital, Niamey, because they’re out in the countryside fighting insurgents and terrorist groups.

KEN OPALO, a Georgetown University professor of African politics, said ECOWAS should prioritize non-military options. “They’d be much better off working on a face-saving off ramp through an African Union process,” he said, such as defining a fixed timeline for the return of civilian rule. “It’s a terrible situation and there are simply no good options on the table.”

The Biden administration is signaling it doesn’t want to see an uptick in fighting, though it considers any questions about a future intervention as a hypothetical scenario. “Nobody wants to see anybody get hurt, and certainly we don’t want to see any resolution of this that would result in violence of any kind,” NSC spokesperson JOHN KIRBY told reporters Thursday.

There are growing worries about what’s to come. Paris announced today that it has evacuated more than 1,000 French and other nationals from Niger. On Wednesday, the U.S issued an ordered departure for much of its embassy personnel in Niamey, with the State Department saying the mission had “suspended routine services.”

The Biden administration has yet to call the military takeover a coup, claiming there’s still room for diplomacy to put Bazoum back in charge. Just today, on Niger’s independence day no less, President JOE BIDEN said “the Nigerien people have the right to choose their leaders…I call for President Bazoum and his family to be immediately released, and for the preservation of Niger’s hard-earned democracy.”

Bazoum’s been on the phone with many foreign officials, including several calls with Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN. Still, the Biden administration hasn’t announced any such call by the president.

 

Politico

Nnamdi Kanu, leader of the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB), has directed Southeast residents to set aside Mondays as empowerment days in the region.

Spokesperson of IPOB, Emma Powerful, disclosed this in a statement on Saturday.

Powerful said Kanu gave the directive as a follow-up to his earlier cancellation of the controversial sit-at-home usually enforced by a faction of the IPOB on Mondays.

He did not, however, mention when the IPOB leader gave the directive.

“Economic Empowerment Day connotes a day set aside for mass mobilisation of Biafrans to devote their resources and means towards reversing the sharp and unprecedented decline in the economic needs of our people occasioned by the prolonged sit-at-home,” Powerful said.

Continuing, he said, “During this exercise, Biafrans are encouraged to embark on massive deployment of their resources for their empowerment of the educationally disadvantaged and poverty-ridden population of our people.

“Through education, employment, health services, a sense of identity and community, our people and indeed, the Eastern region, can begin to thrive and grow.”

The IPOB spokesperson said the decision was in response to an urgent need to reclaim the lost glory of the Southeast residents by empowering them with the resources they need to live beyond “mere subsistence.”

He pointed out that the people had long been noted for their hard work, resilience and greatness.

“Also, the implication of this Economic Empowerment Day, is that Biafrans are expected to devote significant time to adhere to their routine calendar schedule template strictly and uninterruptedly to make up for humongous time lost to the activities of misguided enforcers of the unsanctioned Monday sit-at-home order,” he added.‘Nnamdi Kanu’s letter authentic’

Kanu in late July, via a handwritten letter given to Aloy Ejimakor, his special counsel, had ordered Simon Ekpa, a pro-Biafran agitator, to stop issuing sit-at-home orders in the region.

But Ekpa, who has been issuing sit-at-home orders in the region, described the letter as “fake,” and maintained that the civil action would go on until Kanu speaks to him directly in Finland, a North European country, where he (Ekpa) resides.

Speaking on the issue, Powerful stressed that the handwritten letter from Kanu ordering the cancellation of all sit-at-home orders in the region was authentic and that it was not written “under any duress, compulsion or influence of any kind.”

The IPOB spokesperson said the State Security Service cannot influence the IPOB leader on what to do or say.

“Anybody questioning the authenticity of the handwritten letter suspending further Monday sit-at-home is patently dishonest and not worthy to be called a Biafran.

“Anybody who claims to know Kanu will also know that nobody will be courageous enough to coerce him to do anything that will jeopardise the restoration of Biafra,” he stated.

 

PT

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