Value Added Tax (VAT) is a regressive tax that disproportionately affects poorer families, who pay a larger percentage of their income. Unfortunately, under President Bola Tinubu’s tax reform agenda, which aims to increase government revenue, the plan to double the VAT rate will place the highest burden on the poor. With manufacturing, employment, and income declining, the expected 100% increase in VAT receipts is primarily targeting the telecoms sector, where the poor market their goods and ideas at relatively affordable rates. The next target is bank charges, with 90% of accounts holding less than N500,000.

In progressive societies that actively pursue equity and egalitarian values, the highest tax receipts typically come from progressive taxes, where the rich contribute a higher proportion of their income, followed by proportional taxes, where everyone pays a similar percentage. Since the telecoms and banking sectors already pay the highest progressive income taxes, why then should their customers be subjected to regressive taxes? Nigeria appears to be a regressive nation, not only in its tax policies but in nearly every aspect of its economy and politics. Since independence, the people have been pushed toward a state of regression, closer to slavery.

Neocolonial elites in Nigeria share the exploitative mentality of their colonial predecessors — governance is seen as an opportunity to exploit the masses with little in return. This warped social contract between the ruling elites and the people reflects a model of taxation without representation. The elites siphon off the country’s human and natural resources, giving back only a pittance. Public funds are largely consumed by the government’s administrative costs, leaving basic services like roads, water, electricity, education, and social housing woefully underfunded. The people are left to fend for themselves, much like slaves.

President Tinubu represents the archetype of a neocolonial elite — an emotionally detached leader who extracts the lifeblood of the people to appease the demands of global financial institutions like the IMF and World Bank. He sees himself as a reformer who can “squeeze blood out of stone” by increasing energy costs (removing petrol and electricity subsidies), devaluing wages through foreign exchange devaluation, and now by doubling regressive taxes. Though he began his political career with Afenifere, espousing the Welfarist ideology of the Action Group, his tenure as Governor of Lagos State saw the implementation of some of the most socially regressive policies in the name of increasing internally generated revenue (IGR).

In Lagos, Tinubu’s tax policies focused on taxing the informal sector through market and transport levies and other flat-rate regressive taxes. The low-wage informal sector bore the brunt of these taxes, but there were no visible benefits, as government investments in education, health, and social services remained neglected. While Tinubu prioritized luxurious housing projects for the super-rich in places like Banana Island and Eko Atlantic City, 70% of Lagosians lived in substandard conditions or were homeless. The majority of Lagosians survived by retailing imported goods, while the food, beverage, and tobacco industries — legacies of colonialism — remained dominant.

Instead of focusing on increasing productive capacity to raise tax receipts, Tinubu’s approach was that of a rentier system — extracting “Owo Omo Onile” from anyone trying to be productive. Instead of building the necessary 160 kilometers of metro rail to support heavy manufacturing, he empowered private transport collectors, or “Agberos.” Rather than fostering industry leaders from potential manufacturers of railway components and energy, Lagos became home to street warlords and transport touts, who acted solely to serve Tinubu’s economic and political interests.

While Governor Lateef Jakande invested heavily in tertiary education, building Lagos State University and several polytechnics, Tinubu did not build any. It is therefore unsurprising that Tinubu’s 2024 tax reforms not only increase regressive taxes but also break the social contract regarding education funding. The government is phasing out the National Education Trust Fund (NETFUND) — designed to fund universities and polytechnics — replacing it with the Tertiary Education Trust Fund (TETFUND), which will redirect tax funds into student loans. The government has no moral right to tax the productive use of skills unless it is a joint investor through subsidized education. If students are forced to take loans for their education, then taxes should also be treated as loans.

The public discourse surrounding the proposed tax reforms has been deliberately skewed by tribal and regional divisions. Northern leaders have protested that the new VAT distribution model unfairly targets their region, while Southern leaders have remained silent, even though the reform will negatively impact Southern states like Ondo, Osun, and Bayelsa. A devolution of power through restructuring is necessary, allowing states to control their economic resources before tax reforms can be considered under a unitary system.

Some Northern leaders claim that Lagos is attempting to colonize them in penury, while Southern leaders counter that Northerners are trying to feed off Southern consumption taxes. They point out that the Islamic North opposes alcohol consumption, which contributes only the seventh-highest VAT, while ignoring the fact that the North leads in tobacco consumption, which is frowned upon by the Christian South. These arguments pale in comparison to the telecoms sector, which suffers from overtaxation. Phone and internet services may soon become as unaffordable as petrol and electricity.

The tribal rhetoric obscures a critical analysis of the moral and economic implications of overtaxing the telecoms industry. Taxation should represent a share of the profits from government investments in productive capacities — from education to infrastructure. The Nigerian government’s failure to invest in telecoms contributed to the collapse of NITEL, but the government has continually used the telecoms sector as a cash cow, starting with exorbitant entry fees for mobile telecoms and continuing today as telecoms contribute the second-highest share of tax receipts, both corporate and VAT taxes.

Telecoms have been a major driver of economic growth, fostering expansion in retail, transport, and banking sectors. If Tinubu continues to overtax this sector, especially as the world shifts towards AI technology and governments lower telecom costs to make them more accessible, Nigeria could undermine its own economic potential. Meanwhile, excessive bank charges and high interest rates are stifling business growth. The government’s decision to remove subsidies for petrol and electricity, coupled with anti-business policies, is deflating economic activity, which has increasingly moved online.

We can criticize and advise the political class all we want, but it seems to fall on deaf ears. It is now up to the masses to rise and demand a favorable social contract, one that recognizes us as free citizens, not slaves. Before Tinubu imposes another tax reform, he must first reform his approach to governance and the social contract between the government and the people. We should not be expected to fund exorbitant government costs but instead pool our resources, in proportion to our income, to secure cheaper education, housing, healthcare, and employment infrastructure. If he cannot deliver this, then he should seek loans from those who helped him gain power.

** Justice J. Faloye, author of The Blackworld: Evolution to Revolution, President of the ASHE Foundation Think Tank, and National Publicity Secretary of Afenifere.

Majeed Javdani

Key Takeaways

• ISO 42001 provides a structured framework for AI management systems, ensuring businesses adopt AI responsibly.
• This guide breaks down the implementation process into practical steps, focusing on risk management, stakeholder alignment and continuous improvement to integrate AI seamlessly into business operations.

ISO 42001 establishes a framework for AI management systems, providing organizations with a structured approach to integrating AI-related practices into their operations. This standard emphasizes risk management, continuous improvement, and alignment with the requirements of all stakeholders, ensuring businesses can adopt AI responsibly and consistently while adhering to global best practices.

In this article, I will explain the implementation of ISO 42001, AI management systems, step by step using practical language.

What is ISO 42001?

ISO 42001 is a requirement standard for AI management systems. A requirement standard means that if you, as a business, want to be issued a certification to show your stakeholders that your organization is pursuing consistency in business practices through predetermined processes that take into consideration the requirements of all interested parties.

ISO 42001, like other ISO requirement standards, doesn't provide a body of knowledge on what you should do with AI. Instead, ISO management systems, including ISO 42001, provide a framework for consistency in understanding the context of your organization in a structured approach, identifying the boundaries of business practices that might be impacted by AI exposure, conducting risk assessment and management within the targeted scope, implementing controls to manage risks to an acceptable level, monitoring the effectiveness of these controls in alignment with the requirements of all interested parties, and continually improving the system accordingly.

Management systems, including AI management systems, are based on the PDCA cycle to uphold the principle of continuous improvement. ISO 42001, for AI management systems, is a generic standard, meaning it can be implemented by businesses regardless of their size or industry.

Today, all businesses, regardless of their size or the industry they serve, need to consider their exposure to AI. By exposure, I mean the level of AI adoption within their organization.

Step 1: Specify the implementation scope

It is not efficient, or even possible, to implement an AI management system for the entire organization as a single project. Therefore, the first step in implementing ISO 42001 is to define the boundaries of the implementation.

As a business organization, you deliver some products in the form of goods or services. Usually, you follow predetermined business processes for your productions whether a good or a service.

The critical point is that the management system needs to be integrated into your business practices to be effective, rather than functioning as a series of independent processes added to existing practices. You will add structure to your business processes by integrating the management system into them, so no additional processes are created. The result is structured business processes with the management system's related controls seamlessly integrated.

The first step in implementing an AI management system is to specify the scope of the processes with which the management system will be integrated.

The scope of the management system is the first question the a certification body will ask when auditing your conformance to the standard. The boundaries of the management system need to be clearly defined, as you will be certified for specific business practices consisting of their own processes, not for your entire organization.

It can be a product, good or service. It can also be a special project or an initiative, such as a research and development joint venture. This refers to a practice consisting of a series of processes that may span across different sections of your organization to produce a specific result. Therefore, the scope does not mean a business section, such as human resources or marketing.

Step 2: Specify the interested parties

When you specify your scope for implementation, you map out the processes that define the determined scope. Next, you identify all interested parties related to these specified business processes — those who impact or might be impacted by them. According to ISO, interested parties include:

• Internal parties, such as investors and employees, where maintaining corporate governance policies is essential to keep them satisfied.
• External parties, such as business partners or suppliers.
• Regulatory parties, encompassing all laws and regulations relevant to the defined processes, which is especially critical in AI.
• The standard itself, as you need to meet its requirements to achieve certification.

Step 3: What are the requirements of interested parties?

What are the requirements of all interested parties? For example:

What do your own governance policies require in relation to your human resources practices?

What are the requirements of your business partners in an R&D initiative — these being contractual requirements?

What are the regulatory requirements that your determined processes must adhere to?

When you identify these requirements, you gain the information needed to determine whether your current processes meet the requirements of all interested parties or not.

In this step, you need to define different types of controls, whether technical or administrative, to be incorporated into your business processes. These controls will add structure to your processes, enabling you to integrate the management system into your business practices. The result is a business scope consisting of processes that are controlled in alignment with the expectations of all interested parties. This signifies that you have successfully implemented the management system.

Step 4: Monitoring and continual improvement

The final step in each iteration is monitoring for continuous improvement. An implemented AI management system needs to be kept alive. Keeping a management system alive means you must continuously repeat what you did during the implementation at predetermined intervals. This ensures that your business practice remains within scope, you have an up-to-date understanding of who your interested parties are, your understanding of their expectations is current, and your implemented controls continue to meet the expectations of all interested parties.

Implementing ISO 42001 is not a one-time task but a dynamic process that requires defining clear boundaries, addressing stakeholder needs, and embedding controls into business processes. By maintaining a cycle of monitoring and improvement, organizations can align their AI practices with strategic goals and stakeholder expectations, driving both compliance and innovation.

Entrepreneur

The National Human Rights Commission (NHRC) has revealed that it receives more than two million complaints annually regarding human rights violations across Nigeria.

NHRC Executive Secretary, Anthony Ojukwu, shared the information on Tuesday in Abuja during an awareness walk held to mark International Human Rights Day, observed every December 10. The walk, themed “Equality: Reducing Inequalities and Advancing Human Rights”, was organized by the NHRC in partnership with the Rule of Law and Anti-Corruption (RoLAC), the European Union, and the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (International IDEA).

Participants in the walk carried placards with messages such as “Stand for Equality, Fight for Humanity,” “Human Rights Are Universal Rights, Let’s Protect Them,” and “Break the Chains of Inequality, Advance Human Rights.”

Ojukwu emphasized that Human Rights Day serves as a reminder of human dignity and the importance of protecting fundamental rights. “Today is a reminder of your rights, the very essence of your being,” he said. “For Nigeria, the NHRC is the main institution set up by the government to ensure that your rights, as enshrined in the constitution, are protected.”

He further explained that the commission receives over two million complaints annually, a figure he described as “mind-boggling.” However, Ojukwu viewed the high number of complaints as a positive sign of increasing awareness and willingness among Nigerians to seek redress for rights violations. “This wasn’t the case during military rule, when we might have received 20 or 100 complaints a year. The fact that we’re now receiving over two million complaints shows that Nigeria has come of age,” he said.

Ojukwu also appealed for support for the NHRC’s Human Rights Fund, which remains unfunded. “Individuals, companies, and organizations can contribute in various ways — not just with cash, but by donating equipment like computers, vehicles, or office supplies,” he said.

Salamatu Suleiman, Chairman of the NHRC Governing Council, called for a year-round commitment to human rights, stressing that Human Rights Day should not be limited to a single occasion. She highlighted the need to focus on the education of out-of-school children, noting that improving access to education could help reduce social vices.

Mohammed Fall, the UN Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator in Nigeria, addressed the global rise in conflicts and suffering, which he said often leads to human rights violations. He reassured that the United Nations would continue to take action based on internationally adopted human rights principles.

Natalia Kanem, Executive Director of the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), emphasized the importance of prioritizing the rights of women and girls for a fair and prosperous world. She pointed out that while progress has been made, millions of women and girls still face violations of their fundamental rights. “Only 56% of women can make decisions about their sexual and reproductive health and rights,” she said.

In commemoration of Human Rights Day, the Media Rights Agenda (MRA) called on both federal and state governments to uphold human rights as outlined in the constitution, regional, and international treaties. MRA Programme Officer Esther Adeniyi criticized the state of human rights in Nigeria, citing issues such as extrajudicial killings, police brutality, arbitrary arrests, gender-based violence, and restrictions on freedom of expression. “The government must fulfill its duties to respect, protect, and fulfill human rights,” she said.

In a joint statement, the Socio-Economic Rights and Accountability Project (SERAP) and the Nigerian Guild of Editors (NGE) condemned the use of repressive laws to target journalists and media organizations. They criticized the misuse of laws such as the Cybercrimes Act and the National Broadcasting Commission (NBC) codes, which they said are used to stifle free expression. Despite 25 years of uninterrupted democracy, they noted that press freedom in Nigeria remains under severe threat.

Chidi Odinkalu, former chairman of Nigeria’s National Human Rights Commission (NHRC), has criticized the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) for using protests to secure political power in 2015, only to later clamp down on demonstrations once in office.

Odinkalu made the remarks on Tuesday during an event organized by the NGO Global Rights, which was held on the X platform in observance of International Human Rights Day. The event’s theme was “Protest in Nigeria: A Democracy that Disqualifies Dissent.”

While addressing the issue of the right to protest in Nigeria, Odinkalu stated, “I’m not sure it’s within my pay grade to assess the performance of the Nigerian government on the right to protest. Partly because the right to protest is not granted by the government. It’s a right that belongs to the people.”

He explained that the government’s role should be to facilitate and protect protests, ensuring they are peaceful and that other people’s rights are respected. “What you do under the existing law… is liaise with the state, notify the state, so it can provide the necessary protection for the protest,” he added.

Odinkalu pointed out that the APC’s current leaders, from ex-President Muhammadu Buhari to President Bola Tinubu and key officials in the government, had a history of activism and protests. “They protested their way to an electoral victory in 2015,” he noted, underscoring that the APC’s rise to power was in part due to its protest-driven mobilization.

He added, “If you look at the past decade, the very fact that those who were once frequent protesters rose to political power is evidence that the right to protest in Nigeria, at least up until that point, was strong and respected.”

However, Odinkalu expressed disappointment that since the APC’s ascent to power, there has been a concerted effort to suppress protest movements. He pointed to the case of the “Bring Back Our Girls” campaign, which was instrumental in generating public pressure over the abduction of schoolgirls by Boko Haram. “That protest was part of the infrastructure used by the APC to gain political support,” Odinkalu said.

Yet, after assuming power, the government took steps to shut down the protest movement, including restricting access to the protest venue in Abuja. “They shut down that venue, effectively preventing further protests,” Odinkalu said. “And despite failing to make progress on the fate of the missing girls, they closed off that space for protest altogether.”

In summary, Odinkalu highlighted the irony of the APC, once a champion of protest, now undermining the very right it once championed in order to suppress dissent.

A Chief Magistrate’s Court in Ado Ekiti, Ekiti State, has adjourned until December 20 the ruling on the bail application of lawyer and activist Dele Farotimi, who is facing charges of criminal defamation brought by prominent Nigerian lawyer Afe Babalola. Babalola is the founder of Afe Babalola University, Ado Ekiti.

Farotimi was remanded in Ado Ekiti’s correctional facility last Wednesday, following his arraignment on 16 counts of criminal defamation. The court adjourned until Tuesday for the hearing of his bail application.

During the previous proceedings, Farotimi pleaded not guilty to all charges. His legal team made an oral application for bail, but Chief Magistrate Abayomi Adeosun advised that a formal written application be submitted. The case was adjourned until Tuesday for the application to be heard.

On Tuesday, after hearing the application, Magistrate Adeosun adjourned the ruling on the bail request until December 20.

Opposing the bail application, prosecuting counsel Samson Osobu argued that the defendant’s bail application was incomplete and not properly filed.

Prosecution Challenges Defence Counsel’s Appearance

Earlier in the session, the prosecution also objected to the appearance of Senior Advocate of Nigeria (SAN) Adeyinka Olumide-Fusika, who is leading Farotimi’s defence. Osobu argued that Nigerian law prevents a Senior Advocate of Nigeria from representing a client before a magistrate’s court. He cited a recent ruling by the Court of Appeal in Ibadan, Oyo State, which upheld this restriction.

In response, Olumide-Fusika argued that the law governing Ekiti State’s magistrate courts, as enacted by the state’s House of Assembly, allows all lawyers, regardless of their title, to appear before the court in criminal cases. He also pointed out that the appellate court judgment might not have considered all local laws governing magistrate courts across Nigeria.

Adeosun deferred his ruling on the matter, stating that he would review the cited judgment before making a decision. The magistrate then ordered Olumide-Fusika to step down from the defence team and allowed Taiwo Adedeji, the most senior non-SAN lawyer in the team, to continue representing Farotimi in the meantime.

Case Adjourned and Farotimi’s Remand Extended

The court ultimately adjourned the case to December 20 for a ruling on the bail application and ordered that Farotimi remain in prison custody. This decision extends Farotimi’s remand by at least 10 days, even though a federal court had granted him bail in a separate case on Monday.

Gunmen have abducted more than 50 women and children during a pre-dawn raid on Saturday in Kakin-Dawa, a community located in the hometown of Nigeria’s Minister of State for Defence, Bello Matawalle.

Eyewitness accounts reveal that the bandits arrived on motorcycles around 1:30 a.m. and systematically conducted a house-to-house search, targeting predominantly women and children in the Gidan Goga district of Maradun Local Government Area.

Hassan Ya'u, a local resident whose younger sister was among those kidnapped, described the terrifying incident. "The gunmen went from house to house, picking up residents," he said. Ya'u emphasized the urgency of the situation, calling on both federal and state governments to deploy additional security personnel to combat the escalating bandit activity.

The local police spokesperson, Yazeed Abubakar, was unable to provide immediate details, citing communication network challenges.

This latest incident follows a similar attack in September, when bandits abducted over 40 people from Janboka, another community in the same local government area. Residents have expressed growing frustration, noting that these attacks persist despite the presence of local security guards.

The targeted area is particularly significant as it is the hometown of Bello Matawalle, who previously served as the state's governor before becoming the Minister of State for Defence.

The ongoing security challenges highlight the persistent threat of banditry in the state in particular and the Northwest in general, raising serious concerns about the safety of local communities.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

Israeli airstrike kills at least seven Palestinians in central Gaza, medics say

At least seven Palestinians were killed and several others wounded in an Israeli airstrike on a house in the Nuseirat camp in the central part of the Gaza Strip, medics told Reuters early on Wednesday.

In Beit Hanoun town in northern Gaza Strip, where the Israeli forces have operated since October, medics said an Israeli airstrike killed and wounded several people. Rescue workers said several people were trapped under the rubble of a house.

There was no immediate comment from the Israeli military on the two attacks reported by Palestinian medics.

Israeli forces have been operating in Beit Hanoun, the nearby town of Beit Lahiya and the Jabalia refugee camp since Oct. 5, fighting Hamas militants waging attacks from those areas and preventing them from regrouping.

Gunmen led by the Palestinian militant group Hamas killed some 1,200 people and took over 250 hostages back to Gaza when they attacked Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, according to Israeli tallies.

More than 44,700 Palestinians have been killed in the 14-month-old Israeli military campaign on Gaza that has followed, Gaza health authorities say.

Reuters

WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Russia close to achieving goals in Ukraine war, Putin's spy chief says

Russian President Vladimir Putin's foreign intelligence chief said on Tuesday that Russia was close to achieving its goals in Ukraine with Moscow holding what he said was the strategic initiative in all areas in the war.

Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine has left tens of thousands of dead, displaced millions and triggered the biggest crisis in relations between Moscow and the West since the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.

"The situation on the front is not in Kyiv's favour," Sergei Naryshkin, the head of Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), told Razvedchik, the official publication of the foreign intelligence agency.

"The strategic initiative in all areas belongs to us, we are close to achieving our goals, while the armed forces of Ukraine are on the verge of collapse," Naryshkin said.

Naryshkin added that for Russia, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy had lost legitimacy and "the ability to negotiate".

Naryshkin, who heads the main successor organisation to the Soviet-era KGB's First Chief Directorate, is one of the few senior Russian officials to have relatively regular contacts with senior U.S. and Western officials.

His views give an insight into thinking at the top levels of the Kremlin - which views the West's support for Ukraine as evidence that the United States is fighting a proxy war against Russia aimed at toppling Moscow's rulers.

U.S. President-elect Donald Trump on Sunday called for an immediate ceasefire and negotiations between Ukraine and Russia to end "the madness" of war.

Zelenskiy on Monday made the case for a diplomatic settlement to the war and raised the idea of foreign troops being deployed in Ukraine until it could join the NATO military alliance.

Trump, who has vowed to swiftly end the conflict, is returning to the White House at a time of Russian ascendancy. Moscow controls a chunk of Ukraine about the size of the American state of Virginia and is advancing at the fastest pace since the early days of the 2022 invasion.

Open source maps showed Russian forces pushing along the front, with fierce fighting in the towns of Kurakhove and Toretsk in Ukraine's east.

Reuters reported last month that Putin is open to discussing a Ukraine ceasefire deal with Trump but rules out making any major territorial concessions and insists Kyiv abandon ambitions to join NATO.

Putin has said Russia should be left fully in control of four Ukrainian regions his troops partially control at the moment for a peace deal to be done.

The West and Ukraine say the war is an brutal imperial-style land grab by Moscow - and have cautioned that if Putin wins, then the enemies of the West across the world will be emboldened.

The conflict in eastern Ukraine began in 2014 after a pro-Russian president was toppled in Ukraine's Maidan Revolution and Russia annexed Crimea, with Russian-backed separatist forces fighting Ukraine's armed forces.

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

Ukraine fires missiles at southern Russian city – governor

Ukraine attacked the southern Russian port city of Taganrog with missiles early Wednesday morning, acting Rostov regional governor, Yuri Slyusar, has said.

“An industrial site has been damaged,” Slyusar wrote on Telegram, adding that “15 cars were burned down in the parking lot.”

“Early reports indicate that no people were harmed,” he wrote.

Locals told Telegram news channel SHOT that they have heard air raid sirens and at least 10 explosions in the sky over the city.

Taganrog, a city of 242,000 people, is located on the coast of the Sea of Azov. It belongs to the Rostov region, which, like other regions bordering Ukraine, has been subjected to frequent drone and missile attacks.

Last month, the US authorized Ukraine to use American-supplied long-range missiles, such as ATACMS, to strike targets deep inside Russia’s internationally recognized territory. The White House previously restricted the use of such weapons by Kiev, citing concerns over possible escalation with Moscow.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned that such missile strikes would dramatically change the nature of the conflict and would be tantamount to NATO’s direct involvement in attacks against Russia.

On November 21, Russia used its brand new Oreshnik ballistic missile for the first time to hit a weapons factory in the Ukrainian city of Dnepr. Putin said that the strike was a retaliation against the lifting of restrictions on Kiev’s use of Western arms. During a government meeting on Tuesday, Putin described Oreshnik as a powerful alternative to nuclear weapons.

Reuters/RT

“It’s actually going to be easy to cure aging and cancer,” insists David Sinclair, a researcher on aging at Harvard University. Similarly, Elon Musk continues to claim that he will soon land humans on Mars and deploy robotaxis en masse. Major corporations have set carbon-neutrality targets based on highly optimistic forecasts about the potential of carbon-removal technologies. And, of course, many commentators now insist that “AI changes everything.”

Amid such a confounding mix of hype and genuine technological marvels, are entrepreneurs, scientists, and other experts getting ahead of themselves? At the very least, they betray a strong preference for technological solutions to complex problems, as well as an abiding belief that technological progress will make us healthier, wealthier, and wiser. “Give us a real world problem,” writes Silicon Valley doyen Marc Andreesen in “The Techno-Optimist Manifesto,” “and we can invent a technology that will solve it.”

But, as we note in our book How to Think About Progress, this attitude is heavily influenced by what we call the “horizon bias”: the propensity to believe that anything experts can envisage accomplishing with technology is imminently within reach. We owe this optimism to technology’s past successes: eradicating smallpox, landing a man on the moon, creating machines that can outperform chess grandmasters and radiologists.

While these highlights dwell permanently in our collective memory, offering strong inductive evidence for the power of human ingenuity, we forget (or are oblivious to) all the times that technology promised to solve some problem but didn’t. Just as history is written by the victors, the story of technological progress features mainly the breakthroughs that panned out, creating the impression that Technological Man consistently accomplishes whatever he sets out to achieve.

The horizon bias affects us all, but it is most consequential in those with enough expertise to be able to offer scientific and technological solutions to big challenges in the first place – especially if they are trying to sell us something. The hazard lies in convincing yourself that you can anticipate every discrete step needed to reach an ambitious goal like “curing” cancer or colonizing Mars. Such “knowing” instills confidence in the speaker as much as it inspires hope in the non-expert listener.

Moreover, it is one thing to promise tourist trips to Mars, and quite another thing to claim that you will invent a time-travel machine. The first ambition at least seems doable, and that is more than enough for any optimist to run with. Mere possibility can be a powerful force in forecasting and decision-making, because we usually fail to recognize that our sense of possibility expands with ignorance. The less you know about biology or space travel, the more you believe can be achieved in those fields. For all we know, anti-aging research really will allow people who are alive today to live for hundreds of years.

This is the blind spot that Silicon Valley hype-artists love to exploit, especially after breakthrough moments like the release of ChatGPT or the success of mRNA vaccines against Covid-19. It is on such occasions that we look to the horizon and embrace or revise our ambitions. Perhaps the science behind the vaccines will also offer “the cure” for cancer? When even the experts are saying “For all we know, this latest advance could swiftly lead to X, Y, and Z,” that is a legitimate reason for the lay public to get excited.

But this is a facile mode of thinking: because we can only speculate about the later stages of the sequence needed to reach a hoped-for destination, we have a license to gloss over the messy contingencies that are inevitable in the course of research and development. Succumbing to the horizon bias, we can say things like, “All we would need to do to address climate change is ramp up R&D in carbon-capture technologies until we have found a way to make them affordable and viable at scale.” Precisely because we don’t yet know what technical and scientific advances this would require, we can imagine it as eminently feasible.

Doing so feels better than conceding that a problem may remain beyond our control, or at least for longer than we expect. But we should resist the temptation. The persistence of the horizon bias means that there is both a rational and an ethical case for maintaining a realistic skepticism about technology. Too much confidence can create moral hazard. Why worry about carbon emissions if we can anticipate that direct air capture or some kind of carbon-eating nanobot will eventually be deployed to reverse climate change?

Moreover, we should be wary of a psychological tendency that leads us systematically to overestimate our ability to solve big, generation-defining problems with technology. As the bibliographer of science fiction I.F. Clarke put it almost 50 years ago, we harbor an “eternal desire that the power of man over nature shall always be as instant and as absolute as his will.” Modernity has made it both easy and exciting to imagine technological solutions appearing out of nowhere. Though we know we should not bet everything on such expectations, it is all too tempting to envision solutions that would make problems like climate change, pandemics, and cancer just go away.

This tendency can hamper our ability to prepare for an intrinsically uncertain future. Proper preparation demands that we not rely on a grievously biased sample of past experiences. As we confront big global problems, we must avoid acting like gamblers who remember only those rare occasions when they hit it big, not the more numerous occasions when the house swallowed their money.

To be sure, the horizon bias does not imply that technological solutions to civilizational problems won’t emerge soon. Some lone genius could crack the problem of cancer or climate change tomorrow, falsifying pessimistic claims about the future. Nonetheless, claims about what our rational expectations ought to be will remain valid. If you announce that you have just bought a lottery ticket and simultaneously bid on a mansion that you cannot afford, no one will commend you for your financial judgment, even if you win.

Project Syndicate

British High Commissioner to Nigeria, Richard Montgomery, has highlighted the United Kingdom's significant visa engagement with Nigeria, revealing that approximately 300,000 new visas were granted to Nigerian nationals in the past two years.

Speaking on Channels TV's Sunrise Daily, Montgomery challenged perceptions of harsh immigration policies, emphasizing that Nigeria has been a major beneficiary of post-Brexit migration rules. He noted that Nigerians have been particularly instrumental in critical sectors such as social care.

The diplomat pointed out that Nigeria represents about 10% of the UK's total visa grants during this period. His statements follow the recent opening of a new Visa Application Centre (VAC) in Ikeja, Lagos, operated by VFS Global, which the British Deputy High Commissioner Jonny Baxter described as the largest such center in Africa.

Baxter previously confirmed that from June 2023 to June 2024, over 225,000 UK visas were processed for Nigerian nationals across various categories. Montgomery further emphasized the depth of bilateral relations, describing the visa relationship as unprecedented in its scale.

The High Commissioner praised the contributions of Nigerians in the UK, highlighting their "incredibly important" role in British society and workforce. His comments suggest a robust and growing migration pathway between the two countries, particularly in professional and skills-based immigration.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​