Gunmen have killed 21 people in an ambush targeting a joint team of the Katsina State Community Watch Corps (KSCWC) and local vigilantes in Baure village, Safana Local Government Area of Katsina State.

The attack, which occurred on Tuesday at around 4:30 p.m., was confirmed in a statement on Friday by Abubakar Aliyu, the spokesperson for the Katsina State Police Command. According to Aliyu, the victims were ambushed while returning from a condolence visit.

“Police operatives from Safana Divisional Headquarters responded promptly to the incident and restored normalcy to the area. Sadly, 21 persons were fatally shot,” Aliyu said. He added that efforts were ongoing to track down the attackers, with updates to follow as investigations progress.

Eyewitness reports suggest that the death toll could be higher, with claims that 25 people may have been killed and many others still missing.

A witness who spoke anonymously described Baure as a stronghold of bandits and alleged that the attackers took advantage of a local market day to ambush the vigilantes and terrorize villagers.

“They laid an ambush on the road and opened fire on the vehicle conveying the vigilantes, killing many. They also trailed people to their homes, killing scores. From the headcount so far, over 15 people have been confirmed killed, while many others are still missing,” the witness said.

Another source reported that some of the victims were from neighboring LGAs, including Charanci, Burji, Jibiya, and Kaita. “We rescued over 20 people during the attack. So far, 25 people have been confirmed dead, and many are unaccounted for,” the source added.

This incident comes months after a similar attack in June 2024, when bandits killed 26 people in the Gidan Boka and Dan Nakwabo communities of Kankara LGA. That attack also claimed the lives of four police officers and two KSCWC members.

The latest ambush highlights the persistent security challenges in Katsina State, where bandits continue to wreak havoc on local communities.

Five killed in Israeli strike on southern Lebanon, health ministry says

Five people were killed and four wounded in an Israeli strike on the town of Tayr Debba in southern Lebanon on Friday, the Lebanese health ministry said.

The Israeli military said it had conducted an airstrike on vehicles loaded with weapons used by Lebanon's Hezbollah movement in southern Lebanon.

The army said it "continues to be committed to the ceasefire understandings between Israel and Lebanon, is deployed in the southern Lebanon area, and will work to eliminate any threat to the State of Israel and its citizens".

Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah agreed to a U.S.-brokered 60-day ceasefire that calls for a phased Israeli military pullout after more than a year of war, in keeping with a 2006 U.N. Security Council resolution that ended their last major conflict.

Israel launched an offensive against Hezbollah in Lebanon last September, following nearly a year of cross-border hostilities ignited by the Gaza war, pounding wide areas of Lebanon from the air and sending troops into the south.

The conflict began when Hezbollah opened fire in solidarity with its Palestinian ally Hamas after Hamas launched the deadly Oct. 7, 2023 attack on southern Israel.

Reuters

WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

US hits Russian oil with toughest sanctions yet in bid to give Ukraine, Trump leverage

U.S. President Joe Biden's administration imposed its broadest package of sanctions so far targeting Russia's oil and gas revenues on Friday, in an effort to give Kyiv and Donald Trump's incoming team leverage to reach a deal for peace in Ukraine.

The move is meant to cut Russia's revenues for continuing the war in Ukraine that has killed more than 12,300 civilians and reduced cities to rubble since Moscow invaded in February, 2022.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said in a post on X that the measures announced on Friday will "deliver a significant blow" to Moscow. "The less revenue Russia earns from oil ... the sooner peace will be restored," Zelenskiy added.

Daleep Singh, a top White House economic and national security adviser, said in a statement that the measures were the "most significant sanctions yet on Russia’s energy sector, by far the largest source of revenue for (President Vladimir) Putin’s war".

The U.S. Treasury imposed sanctions on Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegas, which explore for, produce and sell oil as well as 183 vessels that have shipped Russian oil, many of which are in the so-called shadow fleet of aging tankers operated by non-Western companies. The sanctions also include networks that trade the petroleum.

Many of those tankers have been used to ship oil to India and China as a price cap imposed by the Group of Seven countries in 2022 has shifted trade in Russian oil from Europe to Asia. Some tankers have shipped both Russian and Iranian oil.

The Treasury also rescinded a provision that had exempted the intermediation of energy payments from sanctions on Russian banks.

The sanctions should cost Russia billions of dollars per month if sufficiently enforced, another U.S. official told reporters in a call.

"There is not a step in the production and distribution chain that's untouched and that gives us greater confidence that evasion is going to be even more costly for Russia," the official said.

Gazprom Neft said the sanctions were unjustified and illegitimate and it will continue to operate.

U.S. 'NO LONGER CONSTRAINED' BY TIGHT OIL SUPPLY

The measures allow a wind-down period until March 12 for sanctioned entities to finish energy transactions.

Still, sources in Russian oil trade and Indian refining said the sanctions will cause severe disruption of Russian oil exports to its major buyers India and China.

Global oil prices jumped more than 3% ahead of the Treasury announcement, with Brent crude nearing $80 a barrel, as a document mapping out the sanctions circulated among traders in Europe and Asia.

Geoffrey Pyatt, the U.S. assistant secretary for energy resources at the State Department, said there were new volumes of oil expected to come online this year from the U.S., Guyana, Canada and Brazil and possibly out of the Middle East will fill in for any lost Russian supply.

"We see ourselves as no longer constrained by tight supply in global markets the way we were when the price cap mechanism was unveiled," Pyatt told Reuters.

The sanctions are part of a broader effort, as the Biden administration has furnished Ukraine with $64 billion in military aid since the invasion, including $500 million this week for air defense missiles and support equipment for fighter jets.

Friday's move followed U.S. sanctions in November on banks including Gazprombank, Russia's largest conduit to the global energy business, and earlier last year on dozens of tankers carrying Russian oil.

The Biden administration believes that November's sanctions helped drive Russia's rouble to its weakest level since the beginning of the invasion and pushed the Russian central bank to raise its policy rate to a record level of over 20%.

"We expect our direct targeting of the energy sector will aggravate these pressures on the Russian economy that have already pushed up inflation to almost 10% and reinforce a bleak economic outlook for 2025 and beyond," one of the officials said.

REVERSAL WOULD INVOLVE CONGRESS

One of the Biden officials said it was "entirely" up to the President-elect Trump, a Republican, who takes office on Jan. 20, when and on what terms he might lift sanctions imposed during the Biden era.

But to do so he would have to notify Congress and give it the ability to take a vote of disapproval, he said. Many Republican members of Congress had urged Biden to impose Friday's sanctions.

"Trump's people can't just come in and quietly lift everything that Biden just did. Congress would have to be involved," said Jeremy Paner, a partner at the law firm Hughes Hubbard & Reed.

The return of Trump has sparked hope of a diplomatic resolution to end Moscow's invasion but also fears in Kyiv that a quick peace could come at a high price for Ukraine.

Advisers to Trump have floated proposals that would effectively cede large parts of Ukraine to Russia for the foreseeable future.

The Trump transition team did not immediately respond to a request for comment about the new sanctions.

The military aid and oil sanctions "provide the next administration a considerable boost to their and Ukraine's leverage in brokering a just and durable peace," one of the officials said.

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

Moscow comments on latest US sanctions

US President Joe Biden’s only legacy will be the “mess” he leaves behind, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova has said in response to Washington announcing new oil- and gas-related sanctions on Moscow.

The sweeping US Treasury measures target two major petroleum producers – Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegaz – as well as their subsidiaries and entities providing various services, including insurance and transportation.

“Some people leave a mark on history, while others manage only a mess,” Zakharova told Russian media.

In addition to major oil and gas producers, the US has targeted more than 30 oilfield service providers, insurance companies, and over 180 vessels used to deliver Russian oil. That so-called “shadow fleet” has continued to operate after the US and its allies banned Russian ships from obtaining insurance in the West and tried to impose a price cap on oil sales, to no effect.

Gazprom Neft CEO Aleksandr Dyukov, LUKOIL head Vadim Vorobyev, Zarubezhneft head Sergey Kudryashov, Tatneft head Nail Maganov, Bashneft CEO Vladimir Chernov and Rosatom CEO Aleksey Likhachev have also been added to the US blacklist.

The latest sanctions come in the last 10 days of President Joe Biden’s administration. Another measure announced by the Treasury, stipulating that the US will be able to go after “any person determined to operate or have operated in the energy sector” of Russia, is scheduled to take effect at the end of February, weeks after President-elect Donald Trump takes office.

The US and its allies have imposed tens of thousands of sanctions on Moscow in multiple rounds since 2014, when a Western-backed coup in Kiev prompted Crimea to rejoin Russia by referendum and led to a conflict between Ukraine and the Donbass republics. The number of measures surged after the launch of Russia’s special military operation in February 2022.

Reuters/RT

Underlying the definitions of bullying in dictionaries is power imbalance. To bully someone is to direct aggressive behaviour at them, to intimidate or threaten them, to act cruelly towards someone, or to coerce them. For one to do these, there must be a power dynamic that makes the person at the receiving end vulnerable. Such a tilt of strength can either be embodied by an individual with a disproportionate physical or social power or a group of individuals converging on a weaker party to diminish them. Since the word “cyber-” got appended to bullying in Nigeria, it has acquired a new meaning that has virtually subverted the logic of power that underlies it.

Now, and no thanks to the police’s tendency to meddle in every matter in which a “big man” cries about being inconvenienced with public embarrassment activated by a previously unknown entity, a supposed victim of bullying these days is frequently someone who can commandeer the resources of the state. If you have enough clout to send the police on your errands, can you really claim to be a victim of cyberbullying?

Let us begin with the now infamous case of the singer Burna Boy (Damini Ogulu) at whose behest a singer cum comedian Darlington Okoye (Speed Darlington) has been reportedly incarcerated for months. As the story is told—and which Burna Boy has not denied—Speed Darlington is in jail because he taunted Burna Boy about his association with disgraced artiste Sean Combs (aka P Diddy). In December, the court ruled that his arrest and detention constituted “a gross violation” of his constitutional rights to dignity, liberty, expression, and movement. Despite a direct court order, the police have refused to release him. That makes you wonder, is Burna Boy really a “victim” if the police can sacrifice institutional integrity for his sake?

Meanwhile, the same insinuation Speed Darlington made about Burna Boy has been hurled at several US celebrities who as much as took a photograph with P Diddy. None has asked a man to be incarcerated indefinitely because they got butthurt. Please note that these are people whose reputation far outpaces that of an arriviste like Burna Boy. Yet, they will not take that track because they are self-assured enough to understand the price of celebrity. Unlike the quintessential African “big man”, they are also sensible enough to realise that power should have a more productive function than to abuse others cheaply.

Then, there is the case of Olamide Thomas, who was arrested and incarcerated for cursing the President’s son, Seyi Tinubu. This was another case of the police torturing logic just to satisfy a big man with small feelings. They claimed the curse “placed Seyi in fear of death, violence or bodily harm”. That would be hilarious if were not tragic. How does the law assess the effectiveness of a curse? If curses worked the way people who watch too many Nollywood films think they do, something should have happened to Seyi long ago, given that people have been cursing his father (and their family) since 1999! I am genuinely curious as to why Seyi would be so unsettled by curses that it would compel the police (and the court) to overreact to superstition.

Add to that the ongoing case of bloggers, Precious Eze, Olawale Olurotimi, Rowland Olonishuwa and Seun Odunlami, hauled before the Federal High Court in Lagos for “acts of cyberbullying” (some reports describe the allegation as “cyberstalking”) against the CEO of Guaranty Trust Holdings, Segun Agbaje, when they published uncomplimentary remarks about him. I am by no means defending those bloggers (who have long pulled down the publications anyway), but accusations of nepotism, power play, and self-enrichment are so commonplace in Nigeria that accusing a CEO will not elicit as much as a gasp. They certainly do not warrant holding people in custody for upward of three months. The police cannot fight cyberbullying with judicial bullying, sorry.

Even more laughable is the amended charge against them that states their alleged offence can potentially cause “a breakdown of law and order in the Nigerian banking system”? How can anyone cause a breakdown in law and order within the banking system when that sphere is not an extricable part of regular life? The officers who came up with that idea will surely have a profitable gig doing comedies in their police uniform. If they must know, the operational deficiencies and the decline of the high standards for which GTB used to be known (and renowned) will result in “a breakdown of law and order in the Nigerian banking system” faster than the opinion of a blogger no one would have otherwise read.

Add to the growing list of police overreach the case of Abraham Daniel, a former minister at Dunamis International Gospel Centre, Abuja. He was recently summoned for questioning regarding an “investigation” into “cyberbullying”’ following his accusations against his former principal, Pastor Paul Enenche, for reneging their “gentleman’s agreement.” While the police summons appeared civil enough, it is still intimidating, especially given that the issue at stake is a matter of personal differences between two individuals who should resolve their matter privately. If one party can get the police to act on his behalf even in a petty issue, can he still be “cyberbullied”?

These cases are worrisome because they show a growing pattern of judicial abuse that began under the previous administration and is becoming gradually routinised. Do not forget that under alleged civilian President, Maj. Gen. Muhammadu Buhari (rtd), the DSS arraigned a man for treason in the courts for, among other spurious offences, insulting the President. Buhari’s wife also had a young man stalked, arrested, detained, and later charged to court for basically calling her “fat”. What astounded me most was that the police spent six months tracking the guy before they apprehended him. If they demonstrate a similar diligence toward their responsibilities to Nigeria, the country will not be so insecure.

Look at all the spheres all the supposed victims of cyberbullying represent—popular culture, politics, industry, and religion—and understand why this pattern is worrisome. Figures representative of virtually every sphere of our socio-political life are one-trick ponies whose only recourse is to use their clout with the police to perpetrate abuse. That is not good for society by any measure. Even worse, at the rate the police are going with their trivialisation of the law by filing sensational charges over minor issues, they will turn every rabble-rouser into an anti-establishment hero. We should properly delineate what constitutes “cyberbullying” (or “cyberstalking”) so that it stops being exploited by anyone who has some money in their pocket and can purchase justice.

No matter what you think or how you feel about any of those people standing trial for cyberbullying, we should not be so numb that we fail to ask if the issue is about legal protections against malevolent speech or just an increasing pattern of intolerance for human rights. When people who have commensurate power say nasty things against each other on social media, the police never swoop in to “investigate”. Regardless of how vicious the exchange by the warring parties gets, the police never take sides to lament “injurious speech” that therefore warrants filing charges of cyberbullying, cyberstalking or even criminal defamation. It is when the matter becomes a case of the top dog vs an underdog that they become animated. Their conduct calls into question the whole idea of “bullying” as an act of aggression and intimidation. If bullying (cyber- or wherever else it takes place) is about a powerful person preying on a weaker party, what constitutes it when the supposed victim is the one who can afford to hire the police?

Punch

If you've ever had the unfortunate experience of saying the wrong thing at a staff meeting or a friend's housewarming party, you know just how easy it is to bungle small talk.

The commonplace interaction can be tricky to navigate, but is incredibly important to master. Small talk can help you bond with an evasive CEO or hard-to-please in-law.

This year, CNBC Make It interviewed dozens of experts about what to say, which questions to ask, and what key mistakes to avoid if you find yourself in a room of nonfriends.

Here are 12 of their best pieces of advice.

1. Don't try to be cool or deep

Every long-lasting connection, whether it be personal or professional, probably started with a benign comment, speech trainer John Bowe wrote for CNBC Make It.

Instead of focusing on saying something "deep" or "cool," just make an observation about your surroundings. Saying "Do you know anyone here? I thought I'd know more people" or "What do you think of the venue?" is a risk-free way to get the conversation started.

"None of these openers are likely to win you the Pulitzer, but exchanging pleasantries doesn't mean you're being shallow or false," he says. "You're putting yourself out there. If your words aren't wildly original, so what?"

2. Tweak the boring questions

Just because your question is low-risk doesn't mean it has to be boring. There are easy ways to transform seemingly canned questions into more interesting inquiries, says Nicholas Epley, a psychology professor from the University of Chicago.

"It might seem hard to reframe questions in a way that's vulnerable, but it's actually pretty easy once you start looking for it," she says.

Epley suggests the following swaps:

• Instead of "Are you married?" try, "Tell me about your family."
• Instead of "Do you have any hobbies?" ask, "If you could learn anything, what would it be?"
• Instead of "Where did you go to high school?" ask, "What advice would you give a high schooler?"
• Instead of "Where are you from?" ask, "What's the best thing about where you grew up?"

3. Focus on the other person

It's easy to get caught up thinking "Am I being awkward?" or "Does the other person like me?" These inner commentaries can distract from actually engaging with the other person Bowe says.

"You've asked this person for their attention; now give them yours," Bowe says. "Concentrate on what they're saying and try to intuit why they're saying it."

Concentrate on what they're saying and try to intuit why they're saying it.

4. Use 'support responses'

People who are good at small talk use "support responses," Matt Abrahams, a Stanford University lecturer and communications expert, wrote last year.

When someone is telling a story, a person adept at small talk will respond in a way that shows they want to know more. Let's say a co-worker is talking about their annoying roommate. The opposite of a support response is a "shift response" which is when you direct the conversation back to yourself.

A support response would be to ask about how they met their roommate or how long they've lived together. A shift response would be to talk about your own bad roommate experience.

5. Nod more

Being good at small talk usually means having a high emotional intelligence. One thing those with a high EQ understand is that body language is just as important as spoken words, Abrahams says.

"People who have a higher EQ are more open in their posture, they are nodding more," Abrahams says.

6. Match the other person's energy

Another mark of a person with high emotional intelligence is they are able to read the vibe of a conversation and match that energy. This tool, called mirroring, can be helpful during small talk.

Take note of the other person's tone and facial expression. If they are excitedly telling you about their day, your response should reflect that sentiment.

7. Validate the other person

Small talk isn't the time to deliver hard truths. Regardless of whether you agree or relate to another person, you want to make them feel heard and seen.

You can do this by asking them more questions about themselves, Abrahams says, and giving more "backchannel" responses, like "uh-huh" and "I see."

8. Avoid controversial topics

Small talk is also not the time to solve the world's problems. Abortion, banned books, vaccines — all these topics are taboo and best avoided.

"If you gravitate towards those topics later on, great," Bowe says. "But for starters, aim for something simple and close at hand that you and the other person can observe together."

... for starters, aim for something simple and close at hand that you and the other person can observe together.

9. Prepackage some questions

Veteran TV journalist SuChin Pak has interviewed some of the biggest pop culture icons including Britney Spears and Oprah. It's rare, she says, to not know what to say to someone. When it happens, she has a "secret" for making small talk that anyone can use.

Her biggest tip for keeping a conversation going no matter the setting? "Always have a few questions in your back pocket that work for everyone," she told CNBC Make It.

Her top two favorite questions to ask new acquaintances are: "What do you want people to get out of what you're doing?" and "How did you start doing X?"

10. Ask for advice

An easy way to flatter someone while making small talk without offering up an outright compliment is to ask them for advice.

A series of studies from Harvard University and the University of Pennsylvania found that we like people who ask for our guidance more than people who wish us well. This is we tend to think, "They were smart to ask for my advice because I am smart."

The topic doesn't have to be profound. Let's say you're moving apartments soon. An easy way to make conversation and flatter the other person is to ask someone "How did you decide on which movers to use?"

11. Don't interrupt an ongoing conversation

Don't hop into any conversation, Bowe says. If someone is telling a very animated story, it's best not to chime in. "First, wait for a lull," he says. "Then once you have someone's attention and, ideally, receive a non-verbal go-ahead, that's your chance."

12. Put your phone away

Phones are constantly notifying us with items that aren't very urgent. You can probably go an hour without checking who texted you or the latest breaking headline. It might be smart to silence your notifications before entering a situation where you need to be present or attentive.

"If you're talking to someone, talk to them," Bowe says. "Don't stare at the floor or look over their shoulder at another person. Put your phone away. Be present and give them your full attention."

CNBC

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has announced that Nigeria’s rebased gross domestic product (GDP) will include data on illegal economic activities such as prostitution, drug dealing, operations of illegal refineries, etc. The updated GDP figures, scheduled for release by the end of January, aim to provide a more comprehensive picture of the nation’s economy by capturing both formal and informal sectors.

Speaking during a sensitisation workshop on GDP and consumer price index (CPI) rebasing in Lagos, Moses Waniko, technical assistant to the statistician-general, explained that the exercise would reflect economic realities previously omitted from official records. “Illegal activities such as sex work and drug peddling are real contributors to income generation in society, even though they lack legal backing,” he said.

Waniko emphasized that GDP rebasing involves recalculating the economy’s size using updated prices and weights, a process critical for accurate economic planning. The year 2019 was chosen as the base year due to relative economic stability compared to the shocks experienced in 2020-2022.

Inclusion of Hidden Sectors

Aside from illegal activities, the rebasing exercise will also cover modular refineries, the digital economy, the Nigerian Social Insurance Trust Fund (NSITF), domestic households employing labor, pension fund administrators, the National Health Insurance Scheme (NHIS), and quarrying activities.

Waniko highlighted that these inclusions are essential for understanding the distribution and contributions of various sectors to the economy. “The size of the economy will be bigger after the rebasing,” he noted, adding that this could lead to changes in key economic indicators such as the tax-to-GDP ratio, debt-to-GDP ratio, and per-capita income.

Challenges in Measuring Illegal Activities

Baba Madhu, assistant director at the NBS, acknowledged the difficulties in capturing data on illegal economic activities. “For example, drug peddling and prostitution are illegal here, but they contribute significantly to incomes,” Madhu said. “The challenge lies in how to quantify and validate this data without legal frameworks supporting these activities.”

The NBS had previously announced plans to rebase the GDP to account for structural changes in the economy and align with international standards. The last rebasing was conducted in 2010, and moving forward, the exercise will occur every five years.

With this comprehensive rebasing, Nigeria seeks to reflect its true economic size, including contributions from previously untracked sectors. The results are expected to support better policy formulation and more accurate development planning.

Governor Bala Mohammed of Bauchi State has urged President Bola Tinubu to address the growing hardships faced by Nigerians, asserting that the administration’s policies are not delivering the desired results.

Speaking during a meeting with a delegation of Islamic scholars led by Sani Yahaya Jingir, Mohammed expressed concern over the impact of federal policies on both citizens and state governments.

“I am not here to insult anyone or act arrogantly, but as leaders, we have a duty to speak the truth to one another,” he said. “Nigerians are suffering, and we governors are also struggling due to the president’s policies, which are clearly not working. The president must listen to the people and correct his mistakes.”

The governor pointed specifically to the federal government’s tax reforms, stating that while revenue generation is essential for governance, the current approach is exacerbating challenges for ordinary citizens and the economy.

“No government can survive without revenue, but blocking critical revenue sources and implementing poorly designed policies is unsustainable,” Mohammed explained.

A Call for Dialogue and Solutions

Mohammed also admitted to tensions between state governors and the presidency, adding that disagreements have arisen from the federal government’s perceived indifference to the plight of citizens.

“You’ve probably heard that we’re at odds with the president. It’s true. Our people are suffering, and the president has not been receptive to our concerns,” he said.

Addressing Jingir, the governor appealed for intervention, noting the scholar’s influence with the president. “You are one of the few individuals the president listens to. I was planning to meet with you personally to seek your assistance in conveying this message to him,” Mohammed said.

US House votes to sanction International Criminal Court over Israel

The U.S. House of Representatives voted on Thursday to sanction the International Criminal Court to protest its issuing arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his former defense minister over Israel's campaign in Gaza.

The vote was 243 to 140 in favor of the "Illegitimate Court Counteraction Act," which would sanction any foreigner who investigates, arrests, detains or prosecutes U.S. citizens or those of an allied country, including Israel, who are not members of the court.

Forty-five Democrats joined 198 Republicans in backing the bill. No Republican voted against it.

“America is passing this law because a kangaroo court is seeking to arrest the prime minister of our great ally, Israel,” Representative Brian Mast, Republican chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said in a House speech before the vote.

The House vote, one of the first since the new Congress was seated last week, underscored strong support among President-elect Donald Trump'sfellow Republicans for Israel's government, now that they control both chambers in Congress.

Trump will be sworn in on Jan. 20 for a second term as president.

The Senate's newly appointed Republican majority leader, John Thune, has promised swift consideration of the act in his chamber so Trump can sign it into law shortly after taking office.

The ICC is a permanent court that can prosecute individuals for war crimes, crimes against humanity, genocide and the crime of aggression in member states or by their nationals.

The court has said its decision to pursue warrants against the Israeli officials was in line with its approach in all cases, based on an assessment by the prosecutor that there was enough evidence to proceed, and the view that seeking arrest warrants immediately could prevent ongoing crimes.

Congressional Republicans have been denouncing the ICC since it issuedarrest warrants for Netanyahu and his former defense chief Yoav Gallant, accusing them of war crimes and crimes against humanity in the 15-month-long Gaza conflict. Israel rejects the allegations.

The Republican-led House passed the act seeking to sanction the ICC in June, but the measure was never taken up in the Senate, which at the time was controlled by a Democratic majority.

Reuters

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

Kremlin ‘would welcome’ contact from Trump

Moscow would be willing to talk to US President-elect Donald Trump if he sticks to his plan of restoring contacts, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told journalists on Thursday. It has not received any specific requests from Washington in this regard, he added.

Trump has promised on several occasions that he could achieve a negotiated settlement of the Ukraine conflict in just one day. In December, he also said that he would wait for a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin to bring an end to the hostilities.

Moscow has repeatedly said that it is ready for a dialogue about a potential peace settlement and accused Kiev of refusing to engage in negotiations.

On Thursday, Peskov said that Putin “would only welcome” a situation in which Trump would “retain his political will to restore contacts at the highest level” after his inauguration on January 20. The Russian president “has repeatedly spoken about his readiness for a dialogue” and the need for it, the spokesman added.

According to Peskov, Moscow has not received any specific requests from the US on the issue.

He suggested that “for obvious reasons” it would be prudent to wait until Trump assumes office.

Speaking to journalists at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida earlier this week, Trump said that he might need up to six months after taking office to help Moscow and Kiev reach a deal. His special envoy on the Ukraine conflict, retired US Army Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg, told Fox News that he would like to set a 100-day timeline to end the conflict.

According to some media reports, Trump’s team is considering a freeze of the conflict along the current front line. Moscow has repeatedly stated that it seeks to end the conflict, not freeze it.

In December, Putin told a press conference that he was ready to meet and talk with Trump. Earlier, he also outlined conditions for a peaceful resolution, including an immediate ceasefire and readiness for negotiations, if Ukrainian forces withdraw from all Russian territory, including the regions that joined the country following referendums in autumn 2022. Putin has also called on Kiev to abandon its NATO ambitions and adopt a neutral and nuclear weapon-free status.

WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Four dead in shelling incidents in Ukraine, officials say

Four people were killed on Thursday in instances of shelling in Ukraine, one blamed on Russia's military, the other on Ukrainian forces, regional officials said.

In Donetsk region, the focal point of Russia's slow advance westward along the front line, regional governor Vadym Filaskhin said on Telegram that two people were killed when Russian forces shelled the town of Siversk.

Further south, in a Russian-controlled area of Zaporizhzhia region, two people were killed when the town of Kamyanka-Dniprovska came under Ukrainian fire, the Russia-appointed governor, Yevgeny Belitsky wrote on Telegram.

The town is located on a large reservoir along the Dnipro River, which bisects Ukraine, not far from the Russian-held Zaporizhzhia nuclear power station.

Reuters could not independently confirm battlefield accounts from either side.

RT/Reuters

“Arsenal fans are currently over the moon, testosterone pumping – and why not? The story will not change in 2024… the odds are not in Arsenal’s favour… My forecast is that despite setting his ducks in a row, (Godwin)Obaseki’s candidate would lose in September. His biggest undoing would be the large army of political enemies he has created in the last eight years – some inevitably from the reforms he introduced, but others, and in a far larger number, avoidably from his mean-spirited, opportunistic politics.”

- What You Might Expect in 2024, December 29, 2023

This is the fifth in my series of annual forecasts. For a part-time Nostradamus, my record has been above average. The forecasts usually come earlier, in the last week of December. Yet, the potency of this edition is not diminished by the delay.

I made a particularly catastrophic forecast for last year, which has left a puree of tomatoes on my face and those of a significant segment of the liberal press in the US, led by CNN: that President Joe Biden would defeat Donald Trump. That didn’t happen—not because Biden didn’t beat Trump, but because Biden was not in the race.

There were a few other misses, but on the whole, whether it was about Arsenal, the value of the exchange rate by year-end, or when Dangote and the public refineries would start production, I was bang on the money.

A word for ministers

Let me start with some unsolicited advice for politicians, especially President Bola Tinubu’s ministers. Their biggest mistake this year would be to take the President’s statement during the December media chat that he won’t replace them at face value.

He said he wouldn’t replace them, not that he would keep them at any cost. I forecast that by May 29 or earlier, the president will replace ministers, especially those who have since outlived their IOU value. As pressure mounts ahead of the pre-election year, no fewer than five of them will be replaced or reassigned by the end of 2025.

Fighting Tinubu

It's 2025, but it feels like 2027. It has been this way since the end of last year. Leading politicians from the North, notably former Jigawa State Governor Sule Lamido, spent much of 2024 regretting that the region supported Tinubu and swooning over how to stop his reelection. The schemes will reach a fever pitch this year as the government presses ahead with the Tax Reform Bills,which are perceived as anti-North.

The tax bills won’t be the only thing over which Northern politicians would raise a battle cry, even though it’s unlikely that they will stop the passage of a watered-down version.

When the government’s deadline against keeping dollars outside the banking system expires in July, those saving the greenback for the next election will cry foul and demand an extension, if not an outright rejection of the policy. They will argue that 1) the government has no right to tell them what to do with their money and 2) it targets Northerners, who are dominant operators in Bureaus de Change.

In the same way, the census, as planned, is unlikely to be held this year. Some states, especially those in the opposition, would declare it an ingenious attempt at gerrymandering ahead of 2027. If the federal government goes ahead, they might repeat what happened in Lagos in 2006, when Tinubu was governor: mount a legal challenge, failing which the states would conduct their separate “census” and declare their figures valid.

Opposition in disarray

Yet, this is the year of the ultimate scramble for presidential favours, especially among politicians who can’t afford to wait for another four years in the cold. They’ve been joining the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) in trickles. As the shambles of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) becomes a ruinous heapand the Labour Party produces more heat than fire, more and more will flock to the APC.

Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar will remain the PDP's albatross despite his efforts to act as its best card. Those hoping for an opposition coalition to challenge the APC in 2027 will be disappointed. The likely arrowheads of such a coalition—Atiku, NNPP’s Rabiu Kwankwaso, Labour Party’s Peter Obi, and political strategist-in-a-limbo Nasir El-Rufai—would be unable to find a common ground.

Ambition, ego, and a perennial distrust of one anotherwill ruin these strange bedfellows. Whatever is left of their political remains will be buried by their heartbroken followers. The new exiting class of second-term governors, likely from the South West and the North East,with money, ambition and a desire for fresh conquests,particularly Seyi Makinde and Bala Mohammed, will overplay their reach.

Twice lucky

Governor Charles Soludo will likely be returned for a second term in November despite snippers from his party, APGA, and outside.

Where’s the money?

On the national stage, I worry about the economy. My advice is to view government officials' rose-tinted forecasts with caution. The coming onstream of the Dangote Refinery, especially, and the partial production from the Port Harcourt Refinery helped ease pressure on foreign exchange demand, mainly because crude was purchased in naira. It would be interesting to see how this naira-for-crude arrangement will hold, especially as Dangote Refinery expands its markets outside Nigeria.

Prices would likely be more stable, with marginal improvements in the macroeconomic outlook. However, with the relatively high debt level, more borrowing crowding out private sector credit, and 2,604 uncompleted projects inherited from previous governments, it will be hard to find cash.

Feeding the cash cow

Revenue will continue to be a problem for at least two reasons: First, the government’s main cash cow, crude oil earnings, is unlikely to reach the anticipated 2m bpd, and the benchmark oil price of $75 pb might prove overambitious.

Multiple sources told me that current production levels are around 1.4-1.5m bpd, discounting for condensate. However, unless the government radically restructures the NNPCL, the weak and heavily politicised structure will underperform.

Shell’s $5 billion investment in Bonga is good news but will not crystalise until 2028/29. There are no new investments in the country’s mineral mining leases that NNPCL incompetently manages to inspire confidence or significantly relieve the current budget cycle.

Second, the government’s effort to improve farm output and moderate food inflation—currently the most severe threat to social security—is still in its early stages. Food inflation will remain relatively high this year, likely around the five-year average of 35 percent. Retooling the value chain to deliver results beyond the current subsistence levels will require radical steps for at least another cycle to bear fruit.

Managing discontent

To stave off social discontent from hardship, governments at all levels must invest more in the weak and vulnerable, especially the growing army of urban youths who will drift more into cybercrimes in significant numbers this year. As for security, the final piece of the puzzle for establishing the state police will likely be completed this year, leaving only the paperwork for its implementation.

Between Arsenal and Trump

Is this finally the year broken Red Hearts will mend, the Year of Arsenal? It would be easier for Trump to take Canada as the 51st State of the US than for Arsenal to win the Premier League in May. If the club is exactly where it was this time last year (40 points after 20 games), the odds are that it will end up where it did in 2024: nearly there. The crown in 2025 is Liverpool’s to lose.

Trump 2.0’s pledge to execute the most extensive mass deportation in US history, just like his dubious promise in his first term to build a wall at Mexico’s expense, will be mired in litigation, logistics, and obstacles by some states and other institutions. It will hardly take off. However, he would have much greater leeway with his protectionist trade policies, potentially sparking retaliation from major US trading partners.

The great thing about Trump is that he won despite evidence that he would be the most unguarded US president in recent history. Nothing he does will surprise.

** Ishiekwene is Editor-In-Chief of LEADERSHIP and author of the book Writing for Media and Monetising It.