WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Battle rages in western Russia as Moscow reports gains in Ukraine

Russia said on Monday its forces had made important gains in eastern Ukraine while continuing to fend off a new Ukrainian offensive inside the Kursk region of western Russia, where a second day of fierce fighting was under way.

The Russian defence ministry said its forces had captured the town of Kurakhove, 32 km (20 miles) south of Pokrovsk, a Ukrainian logistics hub toward which Russian forces have been advancing for months.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Moscow had suffered big losses in five months of fighting in Russia's Kursk region with nearly 15,000 killed. He made no mention of Kurakhove.

The Russian ministry said taking Kurakhove, which had held out for many weeks, would enable its forces to boost the pace of their advance in Ukraine's Donetsk region. It also said it had captured Dachenske, a village five miles (8 km) Pokrovsk.

Viktor Trehubov, spokesperson for Ukraine's Khortytsia group of forces, told Reuters that, as of Monday morning, Kyiv's forces were still engaging Russian troops inside Kurakhove.

The General Staff of Ukraine's military, in a late evening report, said Russian forces had launched 25 attacks on Ukrainian positions around Kurakhove, but said nothing about the town changing hands.

Ukrainian bloggers said servicemen were subjected to constant fire from multiple rocket launchers and guided, or glide, bombs. One report said that Kurakhove had been "practically lost".

Ukrainian monitoring group DeepState, which tracks the front line using open sources, showed most of Kurakhove under Russian control.

Both sides are fighting to improve their battlefield positions before U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, who has pledged to bring a quick end to the nearly three-year-old war, takes office on Jan. 20.

Ukraine's main achievement in the past five months of fighting has been its capture and holding of territory inside Russia's Kursk region that could prove a bargaining chip in possible peace talks.

Ukraine has not revealed details of the new offensive it launched in Kursk on Sunday, though a senior Ukrainian official said Russia was "getting what it deserves".

In his nightly video address, Zelenskiy said Ukrainian forces had established a buffer zone and inflicted heavy losses in Kursk, preventing Moscow from deploying its troops in key areas of the eastern front.

"During the Kursk operation, the enemy has already lost 38,000 of their soldiers in this direction alone, with nearly 15,000 of these losses being irreversible," he said.

Russia's defence ministry said the Ukrainian advance had been foiled and the main force had been destroyed near the settlement of Berdin, close to a road running northeast toward the city of Kursk.

A senior Russian commander said a further attack was expected.

"We are registering a concentration of enemy equipment in another direction and naturally we understand that (Ukraine) will try to strike in this direction. Right now I won't say where," said Major General Apti Alaudinov, commander of a Chechen unit fighting for Russia in Kursk.

Independent military analyst Franz-Stefan Gady said Ukraine was trying to hold its pocket of Kursk for as long as possible, even as Russia continued to push deeper into eastern Ukraine.

"There's a likelihood that we haven't seen the main thrust of this Ukrainian offensive operation just yet," he told Reuters. "We are essentially talking about platoon-sized, company-sized assaults with fairly limited gains thus far."

It remained to be seen if Kyiv's forces could open up another axis of advance, Gady added.

Ukrainian and Western assessments suggest about 11,000 troops from Russia's ally North Korea have been deployed in the Kursk region to support Moscow's forces. Russia has neither confirmed nor denied their presence.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Monday more than 1,000 North Korean troops had been killed or wounded. Reuters does not have access to the Kursk war zone and cannot verify casualty figures.

Reacting to the Ukrainian offensive, the United States, Britain and the European Union reaffirmed support for Kyiv.

"Ukraine has the right to defend itself, and under international law, this right extends beyond its borders," EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said in a statement to Reuters.

"Moscow's unlawful war against Ukraine has included numerous Russian attacks originating from the Kursk region."

A U.S. State Department spokesperson said on Sunday: "We are committed to putting Ukraine in the strongest possible position on the battlefield, including by surging security assistance and utilizing all available resources authorized by the Congress.

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

Russia ‘liberates largest settlement in southwest Donbass’ – MOD

Russian forces have “fully liberated” the strategically important transport hub of Kurakhovo in Russia’s People Republic of Donetsk, the Defense Ministry in Moscow has said.

Kurakhovo is “the largest settlement in southwest Donbass,” the ministry said in a statement on Monday. Before the escalation between Moscow and Kiev in February 2022, the town had a population of almost 19,000 people.

“Over the past decade, the Kiev regime had turned it [Kurakhovo] into a powerful fortified area with a developed network of firing positions and underground communications. From the north, it was defended by a water basin, which significantly limited the maneuverability of Russian assault units,” the statement read.

The Ukrainian military deployed some 15,000 troops, including many foreign mercenaries, to defend the town, the ministry said. The manpower was reinforced with artillery and tanks, it added.

“As a result of the professional actions of the Russian units during the liberation of Kurakhovo, the enemy lost 80% of its personnel (more than 12,000 troops), about 3,000 units of various weapons and military equipment, including 40 tanks and other armored combat vehicles,” the statement read.

During the two months of fighting for the town, between 150 and 180 Ukrainian troops were killed or wounded on a daily basis, it said.

According to the ministry, the Russian capture of Kurakhovo will “significantly complicate”logistical support for the Ukrainian military in the Donetsk People’s Republic. It will also deprive Kiev’s forces of the ability to shell the regional capital, Donetsk, which had been under fire since 2014, it added.

“Following the takeover of Kurakhovo, Russian forces have significant room to maneuver. This will allow an increase in the pace of the liberation of the territory of the Donetsk People’s Republic,” the statement read.

Reuters/RT

As apprehension grows in China, Europe, and Japan about a possible trade war triggered by the incoming Donald Trump administration, one should also spare a thought for developing countries. Their tried-and-tested method of expanding beyond agriculture to achieve middle-income status has been to embrace low-skilled export-oriented manufacturing. How will these countries fare now?

Their prospects may be better than expected, especially if they choose alternative development paths. In the past, poor countries developed through manufacturing exports because foreign demand allowed their producers to achieve scale, and because abysmal agricultural productivity meant that low-skilled workers could be attracted to factory jobs even with low wages. This combination of scale and low labor costs made these countries’ output globally competitive, despite their workers’ lower relative productivity.

As firms profited from exports, they invested in better equipment to make workers more productive. As wages rose, workers could afford better schooling and health care for themselves and their children. Firms also paid more taxes, allowing the government to invest in improved infrastructure and services. Firms could now make more sophisticated, higher-value-added products, and a virtuous cycle ensued. This explains how China moved from assembling components to producing world-leading electric vehicles (EVs) in just four decades.

Visit a cell-phone assembly plant in a developing country today, however, and it is easy to see why this path has become more difficult. Rows of workers no longer solder parts onto motherboards, because the micro-circuitry has become too fine for human hands. Instead, there are rows of machines with skilled workers tending to them, while unskilled workers primarily move parts between machines or keep the factory clean. These tasks, too, will soon be automated. Factories with rows of workers stitching dresses or shoes also are becoming rarer.

Automation in developing countries has a variety of implications. For starters, manufacturing now employs fewer people, especially unskilled workers, per unit of output. In the past, developing countries moved steadily to more sophisticated manufacturing, leaving less-skilled manufacturing to poorer countries that were just embarking on the export-led-manufacturing path. But now, a country like China has enough surplus workers to undertake all manner of manufacturing. Low-skilled Chinese workers are competing with Bangladeshi counterparts in textiles, while Chinese PhDs compete with German counterparts in EVs.

Moreover, given the declining importance of labor in manufacturing, industrialized countries have come to believe they can restore their own competitiveness in the sector. They already have the skilled workers who can tend the machines, so they are raising protectionist barriers to re-shore production. (Of course, the primary political motive is to create more well-paying jobs for left-behind high school-educated workers, but automation makes this unlikely.)

Taken together, these trends – automation, continued competition from established players like China, renewed protectionism – have already made it harder for poor countries in South Asia, Africa, and Latin America to pursue export-led manufacturing growth. Thus, while a trade war would be damaging to their commodity exports, it would not be as concerning as in the past. It may even have a silver lining if it compels developing countries to search harder for alternative paths.

That path could be paved with high-skilled services exports. In 2023, global trade in services expanded by 5% in real (inflation-adjusted) terms, while merchandise trade shrank by 1.2%. Improvements in technology during the COVID-19 pandemic enabled more remote work, and changes in business practices and etiquette have minimized the need for physical presence. As a result, multinationals can and do serve clients from anywhere. In India, multinational firms ranging from JPMorgan to Qualcomm are hiring talented graduates to staff global capability centers (GCCs), where engineers, architects, consultants, and lawyers create designs, contracts, content, and software that are embedded in manufactured goods and services sold globally.

Every developing country has a small but highly skilled elite who can profitably export skilled services, given the high wage differentials vis-à-vis developed countries. Workers who know English (or French or Spanish) may be particularly advantaged, and even if only a few have these capabilities, such jobs add much more domestic value than low-skilled manufacturing assembly, thus contributing enormously to a country’s foreign-exchange earnings.

Moreover, each well-paid service worker can create local employment through his or her own consumption. As more moderately skilled service workers – ranging from taxi drivers to plumbers to waiters – find steady employment, they will cater not just to elite demand but also to each other. High-skilled services exports only need to be the leading edge of broader job growth and urbanization.

All job growth, however, requires improvements in the quality of a country’s labor pool. Some “last-mile” training and upgrading can be done quickly; as long as engineering graduates have basic knowledge of their field, they can be trained in state-of-the-art design software that a potential multinational employer needs. But over the medium term, most countries will need to invest substantial amounts in nutrition, health, and education to augment their peoples’ human capital.

Fortunately, these investments can also create employment. With the right development-appropriate policies, governments can substantially improve learning and health across the population. This may mean hiring more high-school-educated mothers in daycares to help teach children basic literacy and numeracy at an early age; or training more “barefoot” medical practitioners to recognize basic ailments, prescribe medicines, or make referrals to qualified physicians when necessary.

Developing countries need not abandon manufacturing, but they must explore other paths to growth. Instead of benefiting one sector or another through industrial policy, they should invest in the kinds of skills that are important for all jobs.

Services are especially worth exploring, because developed economies are unlikely to erect protectionist barriers against them. As the world’s largest service exporters in 2023, the European Union, the United States, and the United Kingdom have much to lose from a trade war in this domain. Insofar as global services competition affects their own workforce, it would be felt most strongly by doctors, lawyers, bankers, consultants, and other high-income professionals, implying a boon for consumers of these services in developed countries and potentially even reducing domestic income inequality. Those would be worthwhile outcomes in themselves.

Project Syndicate

I’ve had my fair share of failed New Year’s resolutions. In the past, I’ve had unrealistic goals and expectations or forgotten about them altogether. Most people have had a similar experience: Over 60% gave up on theirs by February, according to a 2023 study from author and psychologist Michelle Rozen.
The problem for many of us who don't follow through is that our goals tend to be vague, unattainable or misaligned with our deeper values, says psychologist Chamin Ajjan. So we fail to create the emotional commitment needed for real change.
Ajjan recommends these five tips for successfully reaching your goals in 2025:
1. Set intentions that align with your values. Get clear on what you truly care about and why you want to make a change before deciding on a certain goal.
2. Remember to subtract. “Instead of adding to your long to-do list, try making a let-go list. Identify habits, thoughts or commitments that no longer serve you,” Ajjan says.
3. Get inspired. “Take time to journal, visualize or even create a vision board that reflects your values and intentions. By keeping your vision front and center, you reinforce your emotional connection to the changes you want to make,” says Ajjan.
4. Celebrate progress, not perfection. Be proud of your small wins and make room for your goals to change if needed.
5. Lead with love, not judgement. “Approach your journey from a place of self-compassion and empathy rather than harsh criticism,” Ajjan says.
For me, personally, the first tip is the most important. It’s easy to get someone else's expectations or goals for you mixed up with the life you want for yourself. I would have saved a lot of time, money and energy had I learned that lesson earlier. 
This year, I’m committing to prioritizing my mental and physical well-being and staying true to what matters most to me, whether it’s through setting boundaries with people, fostering new relationships or pursuing projects and hobbies that align with my passions.

CNBC

The Petroleum Products Retail Outlet Owners Association of Nigeria (PETROAN) has called on the Federal Government to provide a N100 billion grant to prevent the closure of approximately 10,000 fuel retail outlets nationwide.

In a position paper jointly signed by PETROAN President Billy Harry, National Secretary Adedibu Aderibigbe, and National PRO Joseph Obele, the association highlighted the financial strain on its members following the removal of the fuel subsidy.

According to the group, high interest rates of 38–40% on bank loans have made it nearly impossible for members to purchase petroleum products, threatening their businesses and the stability of fuel supply chains.

“To make petroleum products affordable, borrowing costs must be reduced,” the statement read. “These high costs eventually reflect in the pump price of fuel, burdening consumers.”

PETROAN proposed that the Federal Government deposit N100 billion as operational capital in the Africa Energy Bank (AEB) to provide downstream sector players with access to loans at a single-digit interest rate of no more than 9%.

“This is not free money but a structured support system to help us stay in business while contributing to economic growth,” PETROAN explained. “Accessing funds at 9% interest will directly reduce pump prices and ease the financial burden on Nigerians.”

The association further urged the government to domesticate the AEB in Nigeria, enabling downstream operators to secure affordable financing and stabilize operations in the sector.

PETROAN emphasized that without immediate intervention, the survival of numerous retail outlets and the broader fuel distribution network is at risk, potentially worsening the economic challenges facing the nation.

The Federal Government of Nigeria has announced enhanced surveillance measures for inbound passengers from China in response to a surge in Human Metapneumovirus (HMPV) cases reported in the Asian nation. The measures, which include potential quarantine protocols, aim to curb the spread of the respiratory virus.

HMPV, which primarily affects children and individuals with weakened immune systems, has caused a wave of respiratory infections across northern China this winter. The outbreak has overwhelmed hospitals and sparked public concern, with social media showing images of overcrowded healthcare facilities.

John Oladejo, Director of Special Duties at the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (NCDC), confirmed on Sunday that Nigeria is taking proactive steps. “The Federal Government will activate surveillance measures, including quarantine, for passengers coming in from China,” he said.

HMPV: A Seasonal Threat

HMPV, first identified in Pakistan in 2001, is a seasonal virus similar to other respiratory pathogens like RSV. It spreads through respiratory droplets, close contact, and contaminated surfaces. While typically causing mild symptoms such as cough, fever, and nasal congestion, severe cases can lead to bronchitis or pneumonia, particularly in young children, older adults, and immunocompromised individuals.

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has highlighted that the incubation period for HMPV ranges from three to six days, with symptoms lasting for several days, depending on severity.

China’s Response

In China, authorities have implemented measures including mask mandates, social distancing, and the disinfection of public spaces to contain the virus. A pilot program to track pneumonia of unknown origin has also been launched. Despite concerns, Beijing has downplayed the situation as a typical winter respiratory illness cycle, noting that this year’s infections are less severe compared to previous years.

WHO and Global Monitoring

The World Health Organization (WHO) is closely monitoring the situation and remains in contact with Chinese authorities. WHO has recommended preventive measures such as vaccination against respiratory pathogens, good ventilation, regular handwashing, and staying home when ill. It has, however, advised against travel restrictions or trade limitations based on current data.

Nigeria’s Preparedness

With no recorded HMPV cases in Africa, Nigerian health authorities are taking preventive action to mitigate any potential risks. The NCDC has urged travelers to adhere to preventive guidelines and seek medical attention if they experience symptoms after traveling from affected regions.

HMPV, while not as severe as COVID-19, serves as a reminder of the importance of global health vigilance. The Nigerian government’s proactive measures aim to prevent a potential outbreak and safeguard public health.

The West African Examinations Council (WAEC) has launched a new initiative allowing students to resit their WASSCE papers as early as January and February 2025. This new system, known as WASSCE PC1, eliminates the long wait for the next private examination cycle and offers a faster path for students to improve their grades.

Announcing the initiative on JoyNews’ AM Show in Ghana, WAEC’s Head of Public Affairs, John Kapi, explained that students who identify the need to resit specific papers after receiving their results now have until January 8, 2025, to register online via WAEC’s website or accredited internet cafés. The exams will take place from January 24 to February 15, 2025.

To support candidates in their preparation, WAEC plans to release chief examiners’ reports earlier than usual. “These reports will provide detailed feedback on common mistakes and guidance on how students can better prepare for the exams,” Kapi said.

The program has been widely publicized through banners, WAEC’s website, and the results checker platform to ensure students and parents are informed.

Kapi also clarified that students whose results were canceled due to issues like malpractice can sit for the WASSCE PC1 exams if they are not under a ban. For now, the exams will be held only in regional capitals due to the limited number of candidates.

WAEC expressed optimism that the new initiative will help students quickly improve their grades, enabling them to qualify for the next admission cycle and avoid delays in their academic progress. Students are encouraged to complete their registration by January 8, 2025, to seize this opportunity.

Hamas and Israel wrangle over talks as Israeli strikes in Gaza intensify

Israel and Hamas wrangled on Sunday over the details of a deal to halt fighting in the Gaza Strip and return hostages home, as Palestinian officials said intensified Israeli bombardments had killed more than 100 people over the weekend.

A Hamas official said the group had approved a list of 34 Israeli hostages to be returned as part of a deal that could eventually lead to a ceasefire. But Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office swiftly issued a statement saying Hamas had not provided a hostage list.

Later on Sunday, the Hamas official provided Reuters a copy of the list showing the names of 34 hostages it agreed to set free in any possible ceasefire deal with Israel.

A renewed push is underway to reach a ceasefire in the 15-month warbetween Israel and Hamas, and return Israeli hostages who were taken to Gaza, before U.S. President-elect Donald Trump takes office on Jan. 20.

The effort comes amid a surge in Israeli military action in the enclave. This weekend, Israeli airstrikes in Gaza killed 105 Palestinians, medics said. The Israeli military said it had killed dozens of Hamas militants.

The U.S. State Department said Israel must comply with international law and do "significantly more to ensure the protection of civilians". It added, however, that it supports Israel's right to defend itself.

Israeli negotiators were dispatched on Friday to resume talks in Doha brokered by Qatari and Egyptian mediators, and U.S. President Joe Biden's administration, which is helping to mediate, has urged Hamas to agree to a deal.

Hamas said on Friday it was committed to reaching an agreement as soon as possible, but it was unclear how close the two sides were.

A Hamas official told Reuters any agreement to return Israeli hostages would hinge on a deal for Israel to withdraw from Gaza and a permanent ceasefire or end to the war.

"However, until now, the occupation continues to be obstinate over an agreement over the issues of the ceasefire and withdrawal, and has made no step forward," the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

Netanyahu has consistently said the war will only end once Hamas is eradicated as a military and governing force.

Israel launched its assault on Gaza in response to an Oct. 7, 2023 attack by Hamas militants on communities in southern Israel, killing about 1,200 people and taking about 250 hostages, according to Israeli tallies.

Israel's military campaign has since leveled swathes of the enclave, driving most people from their homes, and has killed 45,805 Palestinians, according to the Gaza health ministry.

FIGHTING RAGES

Israeli military strikes continued throughout the Gaza Strip on Sunday, with an airstrike killing five people in a house in the Nuseirat camp in central Gaza, Gaza health officials said, and another killing four in Jabalia in the north of the enclave.

Later in the day, an airstrike hit a police station in Khan Younis in southern Gaza, killing five people, medics said. It was not immediately clear if all the dead were police officers.

At nightfall, medics said an Israeli airstrike had killed three people in Bureij camp in central Gaza, bringing Sunday's death toll to 17.

The Israeli military said it had struck Hamas militants operating from the humanitarian area in Khan Younis, and an Islamic Jihad militant who it said had carried out attacks from the humanitarian area in Deir al-Balah.

In Gaza City's Sheikh Radwan neighbourhood, relatives and neighbours rushed to the Zuhd family's house, which was struck by an Israeli airstrike late on Saturday, killing seven people, medics said. The search continued on Sunday morning for four others believed to be trapped under the rubble.

Three men dug away debris with their bare hands to retrieve bodies and search for possible survivors.

The Israeli military said on Sunday its forces had attacked more than 100 targets across Gaza over the weekend, killing dozens of Hamas militants. It said it had also destroyed rocket launching sites that had been used to wage attacks on Israel in recent days.

Later on Sunday, it said it had killed last week in the Jabalia area an Islamic Jihad militant who had participated in the Oct. 7 attack on Israel.

Reuters

WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Ukraine launches new attack in Kursk region of western Russia

Russia said on Sunday that Ukraine had launched a new attack in the Kursk region, an area of western Russia from which Russian troops have been trying to eject Ukrainian forces for the past five months.

Ukrainian troops broke across the border in a surprise incursion on Aug. 6 and have managed to hold on to a chunk of territory there which could provide Kyiv with an important bargaining chip in potential peace talks.

Russia's defence ministry said its forces were beating back the Ukrainian forces but some reports from Russian military bloggers suggested the Russian side had come under heavy pressure.

Andriy Yermak, the head of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy's office, posted on Telegram that there was "good news" from Kursk, adding: "Russia is getting what it deserves."

Andriy Kovalenko, the head of Ukraine's official Centre Against Disinformation, wrote on Telegram that Russian troops were attacked in several places.

The Russian statement said Ukraine attacked around 0600 GMT near the village of Berdin with two tanks, a mine-clearing vehicle and 12 armoured combat vehicles with paratroops.

"Artillery and aviation of the North group of (Russian) forces defeated the assault group of the Ukrainian Armed Forces," it added.

The statement said two Ukrainian attacks had been repelled. Reuters could not independently verify the situation on the ground.

Reports from Russia's widely read war bloggers, who support Moscow's war in Ukraine but have often reported critically on failings and setbacks, indicated that the Ukrainian assault had put Russian forces at least temporarily on the defensive.

"Despite strong pressure from the enemy, our units are heroically holding the line," the Operativnye Svodki (Operational Reports) channel said in the first hours after the attack.

In a later update, another influential blogger, Yuri Podolyak, said Russian units had gained control of the situation after initial "mistakes" and encircled Ukrainian forces north of a highway leading to the regional capital Kursk.

Acting Kursk governor Alexander Khinshtein told people to trust only official sources, and warned displaced residents not to return to unsafe areas without permission.

NORTH KOREAN PRESENCE

Ukrainian and Western assessments say that some 11,000 troops from Russia's ally North Korea have been deployed in the Kursk region to support Moscow's forces. Russia has neither confirmed nor denied their presence.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Saturday: "In battles yesterday and today near just one village, Makhnovka, in Kursk region, the Russian army lost up to a battalion of North Korean infantry soldiers and Russian paratroops."

He did not provide specific details. A battalion can vary in size but is generally made up of several hundred troops.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said in response to a question at his marathon annual phone-in last month that Russia would definitely drive Ukrainian forces out of Kursk but declined to set a date for when this would happen.

Russia currently controls about a fifth of Ukraine, but Ukraine's unexpected success in biting off and retaining a slice of Russian territory could boost its negotiating position as both sides gear up for possible peace talks this year.

Both have been striving to improve their battlefield positions before U.S. President-elect Donald Trump is sworn in on Jan. 20. Trump has repeatedly said he will bring a quick end to the war, but without saying how.

By committing some of its most effective units to the Kursk offensive, Ukraine has, however, weakened the defence of its own eastern regions where Russian forces have advanced since August at their most rapid pace since 2022.

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

Zelensky uses foul language, blames West for not providing help

Vladimir Zelensky used bad language when talking about Western partners in an interview with US journalist Lex Fridman.

Zelensky used profanities in Russian during the interview. He did not give the interview in Russian as the journalist had suggested but used Russian words many times talked obscenities several times on the video released by the Zelensky’s office.

In his opinions, Western partners were to attempt to "intimidate" Moscow by sanctions and arms supplies to Kiev even before February 24, 2022. "Everybody said something, forecasted and so on but I requested just one, primarily from the United States, <...> give me two things - reinforce us with weapons but the best thing is to reinforce us with preconditions. These are not the weapons; these are the sanctions in the first instance," Zelensky said.

"The fact is that we did not receive aid. If we consider that words are the aid, well then, we received plenty of that," he added.

Reuters/Tass

57 years ago almost to the month, celebrated Kenya political scientist, Ali Mazrui, observed that “for some reason a disproportionate number of the historic acts of violence in Africa since independence have tended to happen in the months of January and February.” He had good reason for this.

In January 1961, the Belgians and the Americans arranged to hand over to Moise Tshombe in Katanga, Patrice Lumumba, the inconvenient post-colonial Prime Minister of the country now known as the Democratic of the Congo. The following month, the world learnt of the brutal fate that befell Lumumba. The Congo and, indeed, Africa, have both paid a heavy price for those events.

Togo’s first president, Sylvanus Olympio, was killed in January 1963. Two years later, in January 1965, Pierre Ngendandumwe, Burundi’s Prime Minister, was assassinated.

In the year before the assassination of Ngendandumwe, meanwhile, Ugandan, John Okello, led overthrow of Sultan Jamshid bin Abdullah in the very bloody Zanzibar Revolution. The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) would later record with clinical economy that the effect of the revolution was that “the Arab regime of Zanzibar vanished in a single day as its leaders fled, died or were interned.”

The year after the assassination in Burundi, it was the turn of Nigeria’s Prime Minister, Abubakar Tafawa Balewa together with the regional premiers in the Northern and Western regions. The following month, Ghana’s Kwame Nkrumah was overthrown while on his way to see Mao Tse Tung in Beijing, China.

Mazrui never did manage a dispositive answer to his question as to whether there is “any special reason why the opening months of January and February from year to year should have had such a disproportionate share of Africa’s great acts of turbulence?” Instead, he offered a telling insight, arguing that these events were the fallouts of the search for two forms of legitimacy essential to the trajectory of Africa after the colonial experience. One was the legitimacy of the state and the other was the legitimacy of regimes or of rulers.

Nearly six decades later, these twin problems of state and regime legitimacy continue to afflict African countries but the ways in which different countries now respond to them have arguably made our collective African Januaries a little more interesting.

In many countries, elections – rather than assassinations – have become the chosen path. In 2024, the people defenestrated ruling parties in Botswana, Ghana, Senegal, and even South Africa. Namibia’s ruling party edged a contest that produced the country’s first female president in an act of political survival for the ruling SWAPO that may just have postponed its day of electoral reckoning.

Some of the elections during the year, of course, re-enacted familiar scenes from a discredited part in Africa’s history. Tunisia’s election in October 2024 arranged to re-select law professor and incumbent president, Kais Saied, with 90.7 per cent of the votes cast. It was like a scene from the period before the Arab Spring.

Since the turn of the millennium, however, many of Africa’s elections have been increasingly decided by judges, not voters. In the latest example, in Mozambique, the ruling FRELIMO party procured a judicial validation of an election widely seen as heavily rigged in its favour. A country already ravaged by a murderous insurgency in its northern region of Cabo Delgado and a destructive cyclone must now live with self-inflicted ungovernability. The Botswana Democratic Party (BDP), in power since independence in 1966, made a different choice when the people rejected it.

Judicial involvement in elections is not without high risk to the judges involved or to political stability. To deliver their judgment nullifying the rigged presidential election in 2020, the Malawi Defence Forces arranged to clothe all five judges of the Constitutional Court of Malawi who sat on the case with bullet-proof vests.

In the same year, by contrast, the ruling party in Mali chose to steal through the courts 31 seats won by the opposition in parliament. The result was an uprising that led first to the dissolution of the Constitutional Court, and later the overthrow of the government in a military coup.

Ghana’s 2024 election was the first in nearly one-and-a-half decades not to end up in the courts. The candidate of the ruling party and incumbent Vice-President, Mahamudu Bawumia, conceded the race long before a far-from-credible electoral commission had got around to announcing any results. Ahead of the election, the opposition had made it clear that they would not contemplate going to court if they were denied victory. In his concession, Bawumia saved the country from what would have been an assured date with instability.

Judges do not always wait until after the ballot to weigh in with their own votes. In Burundi in 2015, President Pierre Nkurunziza was determined to run for a third term, even though it seemed clear that he was constitutionally barred from doing so. The case ended up before the Constitutional Court where the judges initially decided to uphold term limits barring the president from running for a third term. Under pressure from a barrage of very personalised presidential threats, the Vice-President of the Constitutional Court, Sylvere Nimpagaritse, fled into exile and “the remaining judges then changed their decision in Nkurunziza’s favour.”

The model of judicial overthrow of the popular will and its replacement with judges as the only eligible voters is, of course, an exclusively Nigerian invention. The politicians who control Nigeria’s Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) are quick to intone “Go to court” at the end of every rigged election, secure in the knowledge that they have also rigged the courts and have many of the judges safely locked away inside their bedrooms.

In the 2023 election cycle, over 81 per cent of the seats contested ended up being decided by the judges. This business model of managing elections is bad both for democracy and for independence of the judiciary.

First, it denies citizens the right to decide who governs them or on what platform.

Second, the way in which judges achieve this result is not much different from the toppling of elective government by soldiers with guns. The only difference when the judges do it is that they deploy the artifice of law, when in fact what they seek to do is to replace legality with corrupt whim.

Third, the depth of judicial involvement in elections in Nigeria makes the judiciary a plaything of the politicians who have every incentive to capture and corrupt it.

Fourth, this creates an internal market in judicial business that casualises all but political cases where the judges involved increase their chances of trading in judicial power and legitimacy for cash or powerful networks at the hands of politically exposed litigants.

In 2025, Nigeria will enter the foothills of another major election cycle. With all the political parties all but defanged, the main theatre of activity will be the judiciary. In Imo State, for instance, where the National Judicial Council (NJC) has removed the Chief Judge for falsifying her age, the State Governor has chosen not to designate any replacement because, ostensibly, he does not find the options available politically palatable. 

In the elections in Tanzania this year and in Uganda at the end of the year, judges will be very active persecuting regime opponents. In Nigeria, that is already routine even before the electoral gong tolls. The upshot is almost assuredly to guarantee uncertainty instead of ending it.

When he wrote in 1968, Mazrui thought that the opening months of the year seemed to guarantee turbulence in Africa. Today, that tendency occurs all year round. Far from becoming less turbulent, Africa’s January may have infected the remaining months of the year with a turbulent contagion.

Chidi Anselm Odinkalu, a professor of law, teaches at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy and can be reached through This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it..

Ryan Ermey

It’s officially the time of year when you get around to that thing you’ve been putting off. And for millions of Americans, that means coming to grips with their finances.

If you’ve been avoiding funding your 401(k) or opening a brokerage account, you’re not alone. Nearly half of U.S. adults — 48% — report owning no investable assets, according to a 2024 survey from Janus Henderson.

And for many, the reasoning behind the procrastination is simple: Investing is (seemingly) too complex.

It’s a pattern of thinking that, if not overcome, could cripple many young people financially, says Amos Nadler, founder of Prof of Wall Street and a Ph.D. in behavioral finance and neuroeconomics.

“It’s a bias that we call ‘complexity aversion,’” he says. “And it’s the biggest barrier to building wealth for people who are not in markets or who have never invested before.”

Here’s how this cognitive bias could be costing you money.

The importance of overcoming complexity aversion

On a very basic level, people who put off doing essential financial tasks have the same fears as those who can’t bring themselves to start an exercise routine — they don’t want to make a mistake or feel foolish.

Just as someone might say they don’t know the first thing about how all that fancy gym equipment works, a financially avoidant person might say, ”‘Man, this is over my head,’” says Nadler. ”‘I’m just not a numbers person.’”

Feeling this way about money is tied closely with another common cognitive bias known as risk aversion. Essentially, not only are you afraid you’ll screw up, but you fear that you’ll lose out on money you put time and effort into accumulating. And because fear of losing what you have can outweigh the joy of building wealth, you stay put.

The impulse is, “I’ve worked hard for it, and I’m risk averse. I’d rather just have the cash,” Nadler says. “I know inflation is eating away at my cash, but the market so volatile, so I’m scared.”

But the need to start investing — especially among young people — extends beyond the need for your money to keep up with inflation. By procrastinating on this particular financial project, you’re losing what many experts call your most valuable asset: time.

The longer you’re in the market, the more time your money has to grow at a compounding rate. For every year you delay getting started in the market, you potentially shave thousands of dollars off your future net worth.

Play around with an online compounding interest calculator, and you’ll likely discover that sitting on the sidelines for even a few years can have a massive effect on your long-term gains.

Consider a 20-year-old who invests $200 a month into a retirement portfolio that earns an annualized total return of 8%. By the time she’s ready to retire at age 67, she’ll have $1.25 million saved. If she starts at age 25, with all other conditions the same, her total drops to about $830,000. And if she puts things off until age 30, she’d retire with $547,000.

How to move past complexity aversion

So, how do you get started? You could always open a brokerage account or self-fund a retirement account, such as an IRA. Doing so requires just a few easy steps.

But if your employer offers a workplace retirement account, such as a 401(k), opting in may be an even easier way to get started. Designate a percentage of your salary to contribute to the account out of each paycheck and select one or more mutual funds for your portfolio.

These plans commonly hold low-cost, highly diversified options, such as index and target-date funds, which give investors exposure to large swaths of the market.

CNBC