Risk is uncertainty that matters. To prevent this, we try to control, mitigate, standardise and manage people and processes.

This principle was revealed to me years ago when I hosted a speaker at the South African Reserve Bank. He was an expert in risk, there to do a lunchtime presentation. What I learned that day has stayed with me over the many years since. 

What it ultimately boils down to is that risk is uncertainty that matters. There is one such kind of uncertainty with which we are all familiar – the risk that bad things will happen. 

A different perspective

However, there is a whole additional type of risk. It’s as real as the first kind, but it is hardly ever considered in how we approach life and leadership and the uncertainties surrounding us. It’s the risk that good things will not happen. 

If you think that this is just semantics, you’ve probably not fully grasped the implications of the point and what it opens up for all of us in terms of possibilities. 

How different might the world be if we spent the same amount of energy working to make possible the good, rather than only to prevent the bad? What if we focus on the goals we want to achieve – with and through others – rather than on the adverse outcomes we want to avoid? 

So now, when I am giving someone a new opportunity, I constantly ask myself some important questions: 

• Am I spending as much time imagining what they could do if they rise to the challenge as I am thinking about what could go wrong if they are out of their depth? 
• Am I putting as much effort into preparing them to succeed as I make contingency plans if they fail?

This applies to my work as a facilitator. If I suddenly realise things have taken a turn I wasn’t expecting during a session, and I don’t know how to navigate it, I no longer become paralysed by fear that my client will think that I am incompetent if I admit that I don’t have the answer.

Instead, I take the alternative path and embrace it as an opportunity for growth. By being honest about the situation, I’m creating a chance for something powerful to happen when I ask the team to step up and work through the challenge together.

Another scenario

All leaders at one time or another have had to manage an individual who is a high performer and toxic. Anyone who has faced that kind of dilemma will probably feel like I did – like I was being held hostage by someone whose skills were critical to the project but whose way of bringing those skills to their work was poisoning everyone else. 

It dawned on me that instead of feeling trapped, I needed to spend my time, effort and energy not being concerned about what risk I ran if I asked this person to leave. I needed to focus on what might be possible if he were gone. 

If the team had their confidence, competence and contribution restored by his going, we may well be able to figure it out together in ways that would surprise – and delight – all of us. 

Without question, the most rewarding experiences of my career have been seeing what people are capable of when I have created an environment in which I don’t just get the most out of them but also the best. It’s when their discretionary energy comes back to life, and they achieve things that no one, including themselves, thought possible. 

As leaders, we are elevated and entrusted not only with resources but with people’s lives. This is something we cannot help but take seriously. And sometimes, it’s worth the risk to avoid the possibility that good things will never happen. 

Geena Davis said it best: “If you risk nothing, then you risk everything.”

Niven Postma has enjoyed a wide and varied career, including being CEO of the Businesswomen’s Association of South Africa, Head of the South African Reserve Bank Academy, and Head of Leadership and Culture for the Standard Bank. The author of If You Don’t Do Politics, Politics Will Do You, Postma is a global strategy and culture consultant and works on women’s leadership development.

Inc

PRESS RELEASE

My fellow citizens,

I want to talk to you about our economy. It is important that you understand the reasons for the policy measures I have taken to combat the serious economic challenges this nation has long faced.

2. I am not going to talk in difficult terms by dwelling on economic jargon and concepts. I will speak in plain, clear language so that you know where I stand. More importantly, so that you see and hopefully will share my vision regarding the journey to a better, more productive economy for our beloved country.

3. For several years, I have consistently maintained the position that the fuel subsidy had to go. This once beneficial measure had outlived its usefulness. The subsidy cost us trillions of Naira yearly. Such a vast sum of money would have been better spent on public transportation, healthcare, schools, housing and even national security. Instead, it was being funnelled into the deep pockets and lavish bank accounts of a select group of individuals. 

4. This group had amassed so much wealth and power that they became a serious threat to the fairness of our economy and the integrity of our democratic governance. To be blunt, Nigeria could never become the society it was intended to be as long as such small, powerful yet unelected groups hold enormous influence over our political economy and the institutions that govern it.

5. The whims of the few should never hold dominant sway over the hopes and aspirations of the many. If we are to be a democracy, the people and not the power of money must be sovereign.

6. The preceding administration saw this looming danger as well. Indeed, it made no provision in the 2023 Appropriations for subsidy after June this year.  Removal of this once helpful device that had transformed into a millstone around the country’s neck had become inevitable.

7. Also, the multiple exchange rate system that had been established became nothing but a highway of currency speculation. It diverted money that should have been used to create jobs, build factories and businesses for millions of people. Our national wealth was doled out on favourable terms to a handful of people who have been made filthy rich simply by moving money from one hand to another. This too was extremely unfair. 

8. It also compounded the threat that the illicit and mass accumulation of money posed to the future of our democratic system and its economy.

9. I had promised to reform the economy for the long-term good by fighting the major imbalances that had plagued our economy.  Ending the subsidy and the preferential exchange rate system were key to this fight. This fight is to define the fate and future of our nation. Much is in the balance.

10. Thus, the defects in our economy immensely profited a tiny elite, the elite of the elite you might call them. As we moved to fight the flaws in the economy, the people who grow rich from them, predictably, will fight back through every means necessary.

11. Our economy is going through a tough patch and you are being hurt by it. The cost of fuel has gone up. Food and other prices have followed it. Households and businesses struggle. Things seem anxious and uncertain. I understand the hardship you face. I wish there were other ways. But there is not. If there were, I would have taken that route as I came here to help not hurt the people and nation that I love.

12. What I can offer in the immediate is to reduce the burden our current economic situation has imposed on all of us, most especially on businesses, the working class and the most vulnerable among us. 

13. Already, the Federal Government is working closely with states and local governments to implement interventions that will cushion the pains of our people across socio-economic brackets.

14. Earlier this month, I signed four (4) Executive Orders in keeping with my electoral promise to address unfriendly fiscal policies and multiple taxes that are stifling the business environment. These Executive Orders on suspension and deferred commencement of some taxes will provide the necessary buffers and headroom to businesses in the manufacturing sector to continue to thrive and expand.

15. To strengthen the manufacturing sector, increase its capacity to expand and create good paying jobs, we are going to spend N75 billion between July 2023 and March 2024. Our objective is to fund 75 enterprises with great potential to kick-start a sustainable economic growth, accelerate structural transformation and improve productivity. Each of the 75 manufacturing enterprises will be able to access N1 Billion credit at 9% per annum with maximum of 60 months repayment for long term loans and 12 months for working capital.

16. Our administration recognises the importance of micro, small and medium-sized enterprises and the informal sector as drivers of growth. We are going to energise this very important sector with N125 billion.

17. Out of the sum, we will spend N50 billion on Conditional Grant to 1 million nano businesses between now and March 2024. Our target is to give N50,000 each to 1,300 nano business owners in each of the 774 local governments across the country.

18. Ultimately, this programme will further drive financial inclusion by onboarding beneficiaries into the formal banking system. In like manner, we will fund 100,000 MSMEs and start-ups with N75 billion. Under this scheme, each enterprise promoter will be able to get between N500,000 to N1million at 9% interest per annum and a repayment period of 36 months.

19. To further ensure that prices of food items remain affordable, we have had a multi-stakeholder engagement with various farmers’ associations and operators within the agricultural value chain.

20. In the short and immediate terms, we will ensure staple foods are available and affordable. To this end, I have ordered the release of 200,000 Metric Tonnes of grains from strategic reserves to households across the 36 states and FCT to moderate prices. We are also providing 225,000 metric tonnes of fertilizer, seedlings and other inputs to farmers who are committed to our food security agenda.

21. Our plan to support cultivation of 500,000 hectares of farmland and all-year-round farming practice remains on course. To be specific, N200 billion out of the N500 billion approved by the National Assembly will be disbursed as follows:  

-Our administration will invest N50 billion each to cultivate 150,000 hectares of rice and maize.

-N50 billion each will also be earmarked to cultivate 100,000 hectares of wheat and cassava.

22. This expansive agricultural programme will be implemented targeting small-holder farmers and leveraging large-scale private sector players in the agric business with strong performance record.

23. In this regard, the expertise of Development Finance Institutions, commercial banks and microfinance banks will be tapped into to develop a viable and an appropriate transaction structure for all stakeholders.

24. Fellow Nigerians, I made a solemn pledge to work for you. How to improve your welfare and living condition is of paramount importance to me and it’s the only thing that keeps me up day and night.

25. It is in the light of this that I approved the Infrastructure Support Fund for the States. This new Infrastructure Fund will enable States to intervene and invest in critical areas and bring relief to many of the pain points as well as revamp our decaying healthcare and educational Infrastructure.

26. The fund will also bring improvements to rural access roads to ease evacuation of farm produce to markets. With the fund, our states will become more competitive and on a stronger financial footing to deliver economic prosperity to Nigerians. 

27. Part of our programme is to roll out buses across the states and local governments for mass transit at a much more affordable rate. We have made provision to invest N100 billion between now and March 2024 to acquire 3,000 units of 20-seater CNG-fuelled buses.

28. These buses will be shared to major transportation companies in the states, using the intensity of travel per capital. Participating transport companies will be able to access credit under this facility at 9% per annum with 60 months repayment period.

29. In the same vein, we are also working in collaboration with the Labour unions to introduce a new national minimum wage for workers. I want to tell our workers this: your salary review is coming.

30. Once we agree on the new minimum wage and general upward review, we will make budget provision for it for immediate implementation.

31. I want to use this opportunity to salute many private employers in the Organised Private Sector who have already implemented general salary review for employees.

32. Fellow Nigerians, this period may be hard on us and there is no doubt about it that it is tough on us. But I urge you all to look beyond the present temporary pains and aim at the larger picture. All of our good and helpful plans are in the works. More importantly, I know that they will work.

33. Sadly, there was an unavoidable lag between subsidy removal and these plans coming fully online. However, we are swiftly closing the time gap. I plead with you to please have faith in our ability to deliver and in our concern for your well-being.

34. We will get out of this turbulence. And, due to the measures we have taken, Nigeria will be better equipped and able to take advantage of the future that awaits her.

35. In a little over two months, we have saved over a trillion Naira that would have been squandered on the unproductive fuel subsidy which only benefitted smugglers and fraudsters. That money will now be used more directly and more beneficially for you and your families.

36. For example, we shall fulfill our promise to make education more affordable to all and provide loans to higher education students who may need them. No Nigerian student will have to abandon his or her education because of lack of money.

37. Our commitment is to promote the greatest good for the greatest number of our people. On this principle, we shall never falter.

38. We are also monitoring the effects of the exchange rate and inflation on gasoline prices. If and when necessary, we will intervene. 

39. I assure you my fellow country men and women that we are exiting the darkness to enter a new and glorious dawn. 

40. Now, I must get back to work in order to make this vision come true. 

41. Thank you all for listening and may God bless the Federal Republic of Nigeria.

Organised Labour says its nationwide strike to protest the removal of petroleum subsidy will proceed as planned.

The strike is scheduled to begin on Wednesday.

The unions, comprising the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) and the Trade Union Congress (TUC), spoke after a meeting with government representatives at the presidential villa on Monday.

The unions expressed doubt regarding the ability of President Bola Tinubu to effectively control inflation and petrol price due to the unification of the exchange rate.

Joe Ajaero, president of the NLC, said the plan for workers to engage in a peaceful protest starting from Wednesday remains unchanged. 

He dismissed fears of the protest being hijacked by hoodlums, saying that such incidents have never occurred in the history of workers’ protests.

He, however, emphasised that it is the responsibility of the security agencies to ensure the safety of the demonstrators.

Regarding Tinubu’s plan to intervene in the exchange rate in an attempt to address inflation and the high cost of petrol, Ajaero expressed doubts about its effectiveness.

Given the reliance on imported energy and the absence of comparative advantages, he questioned how control could be exerted. 

Ajaero also highlighted the challenges faced by the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) in resisting tariff increases, as well as the significant increase in the price of corn in rural areas.

Participants in Monday’s meeting included Ajaero, representatives from the Trade Union Congress (TUC), and other delegates from the labour unions.

On the government side, attendees included Femi Gbajabiamila, the chief of staff to the president; Mele Kyari, group chief executive officer of Nigerian National Petroleum company Limited (NNPCL); among others.

The meeting of the labour unions and government representatives was then adjourned till 12 noon on Tuesday.

The Cable

The junta that seized power in Niger last week detained senior politicians on Monday, their party said, defying international calls to restore democratic rule, while fellow military rulers in West Africa expressed their support.

The overthrow of President Mohamed Bazoum has sent shockwaves across West Africa, pitting Niger's former Western allies against the likes of Russia and other junta leaders in the region.

The African Union, the U.N., the European Union and other powers have condemned the overthrow of Bazoum - the seventh military takeover in less than three years in West and Central Africa that has undermined democratic progress in one of the world's poorest regions.

Regional bloc ECOWAS has imposed sanctions, including a halt in all financial transactions and a national assets freeze, and said it could authorise force to reinstate Bazoum, who is still locked in his palace.

But the juntas of neighbouring Burkina Faso, Mali and Guinea all voiced their support for the coup's leaders on Monday.

"Mali and Burkina Faso warn that any military intervention in Niger will be considered as a declaration of war against Burkina Faso and Mali," said a joint statement read on both countries' national broadcasters.

Niger's junta on Monday arrested the ousted government's mines minister, the head of the ruling party and the oil minister, among others.

Meanwhile, a United States official on Monday said the coup had not been fully successful and that there was still an opportunity to reinstate Bazoum. France and Germany echoed those comments.

RUSSIAN FLAGS

Last Wednesday's coup has raised fears for the security of the Sahel region. Niger is the world's seventh-biggest producer of uranium, the radioactive metal widely used for nuclear energy and treating cancer.

The United States, former colonial power France and other Western states have troops in Niger and had been working with the government to overcome an Islamist insurgency by groups linked to Islamic State and al Qaeda.

But attacks on civilians and soldiers persist, fomenting discontent and straining relations with Western powers.

There have been four takeovers in neighbouring Mali and Burkina Faso during the last two years, all of which have come amid frustrations about growing insecurity. Both countries have turned increasingly towards Russia as an ally.

The coup leaders, who have named General Abdourahamane Tiani, the former presidential guard chief, as head of state, said they overthrew Bazoum over poor governance and discontent with the way he handled the Islamist threat.

On Sunday, supporters of the junta burned French flags and attacked the French embassy in Niger's capital, Niamey, prompting police to fire volleys of tear gas in response.

Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of Russia's Wagner mercenary group, last week welcomed the coup in Niger, and said his forces were available to restore order.

The Kremlin said on Monday that the situation in Niger was "cause for serious concern" and called for a swift return to constitutional order.

ECONOMIC PINCH

ECOWAS appears to have taken a tougher stance towards Niger than its junta-led neighbours, which have been sanctioned but never threatened with force.

Both the EU and France have backed the bloc's response suspended their own financial support, while the U.S. has threatened to do so.

"The EU and Niger share deep ties developed over decades. The unacceptable attack on the democratically elected government puts these ties in jeopardy," European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen posted on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter.

After days of turmoil, the International Monetary Fund said it was closely monitoring developments in Niger. But the IMF has not yet taken any specific actions in response to the coup.

It has yet to disburse a $131.5 million loan to Niger that was approved on July 5, it added.

The regional central bank has meanwhile cancelled Niger's planned 30 billion CFA ($51 million) bond issuance, scheduled for Monday in the West African regional debt market, following sanctions, sources said.

Reuters

Shell Plc has resumed talks to sell its stake in a joint venture that operates onshore and shallow-water oil and gas fields in Nigeria to local firm ND Western Ltd. about a year after the process was put on ice, according to people with knowledge of the matter.

The energy giant said in June 2022 that it was pausing the divestment of its 30% interest in the partnership with Eni SpA, TotalEnergies SE and the state-owned Nigerian National Petroleum Co. Ltd., which is known as SPDC, pending the outcome of a lawsuit at the West African country’s Supreme Court. A lower court had earlier ordered Shell not to sell any assets before the dispute with a community in the crude-rich Niger Delta over alleged pollution is resolved.

Sale talks have resumed with ND Western in recent weeks and significant progress has been made, but there’s no certainty a transaction will be agreed or could proceed, the people said. The court order for SPDC to maintain the status quo remains in place and judges at Nigeria’s top court are currently in their summer vacation.

Shell declined to comment on any talks, but reiterated its intention to reduce involvement in onshore oil production in Nigeria, while retaining in its deep-water and natural gas positions in the country. The company said it respects the judiciary and takes the court order seriously.

ND Western declined to comment.

Shell announced its intention to sell the stake in 2021, saying its long-term energy transition strategy was incompatible with Nigerian operations prone to theft and oil spills. Then-Chief Executive Officer Ben van Beurden told shareholders that a significant increase in sabotage in recent years had resulted in a state of near-lawlessness that the company couldn’t control.

The stake had attracted interest from local producers including ND Western, Heirs Oil and Gas Ltd., Seplat Energy Plc and Sahara Group Ltd. before Shell paused the sale process, Bloomberg reported last year.

Since then, Nigeria has a new president, Bola Tinubu, who took office in late May. Advisers to the leader prepared a report in the run-up to his inauguration recommending that his administration “close out” outstanding divestments being sought by international oil producers in order to boost petroleum output.

Supreme Court on Monday mourned one of its justices, Centus Nweze, who died at 64.

A statement by the court’s Director of Press and Information, Festus Akande, said Nweze died on Sunday after a brief illness.

“He had been a formidable ally of his brother Justices, an admirable pillar of support to the staff and management of the Supreme Court; and indeed, a dependable father-figure to all,” the statement said.

He was also a doctoral degree holder and was Associate Professor of Law at the Ebonyi State University.

Nweze, known for his oratorical prowess and prodigious academic writings on issues of law, was also a Visiting Professor of Law, Enugu State University of Science and Technology.

Nweze was the fifth most senior judge of the Supreme Court.

CHIMA CENTUS NWEZE PASSES ON

It is with heart full of grief that we announce the sudden death of our amiable brother and colleague, Chima Centus Nweze, JSC, on Saturday, 29th July, 2023, after a brief illness.

Nweze was born in Obollo, Udenu Local Government Area of Enugu State on 25th September, 1958.

He had his LLB (Hons), LLM and PhD in Law at the prestigious University of Nigeria, Enugu Campus in 1983, 1995 and 2001, respectively.

He was also a recipient of LL.D. Degree; and was an Associate Professor of Law at Ebonyi State University and a Visiting Professor of Law, Enugu State University of Science and Technology. His Lordship was a Judge of the High Court of Justice, Enugu State, from 1995 to 2007; Justice of the Court of Appeal from 2008 to 2014; and was elevated to the Supreme Court Bench on 29 October, 2014, where he served until his death.

Nweze gave a sterling account of himself in the discharge of his official duties at the Supreme Court. He had largely made himself a pliable legal personality that had diligently sunk a pool of enduring legal knowledge and experience in all his judicial pronouncements. He had been a formidable ally of his brother Justices, an admirable pillar of support to the staff and management of the Supreme Court; and indeed, a dependable father-figure to all. It will be an understatement to say we are all going to miss him dearly.

Funeral arrangements would be announced by the family in due course.

Akande Festus
Director of Press and Information
Supreme Court of Nigeria

Islamist militants have beheaded at least 10 farmers in Nigeria's northern state of Borno after attacking their farms, residents said on Monday.

Last week, militants killed at least 25 people and wounded others in attacks on two villages in Borno state, a hotbed for insurgency and the center of a more than a decade-long insurgency in Nigeria that has spilled into neighbouring Chad and Cameroon.

Abubakar Masta, a farmer who escaped, said the assailants attacked their farms in Kawuri village of Konduga local government area of Borno State on Monday around 08:30 a.m. (0730 GMT), on motorbikes, carrying rifles.

"I saw 10 corpses of my friends who were slaughtered," Abubakar said, as security officials were recovering the bodies.

Residents said suspected Islamist group Boko Haram was behind the attack.

The Islamic State of West Africa (ISWAP), a regional affiliate of the Islamic state, is also active in Borno state.

The militants have been killing farmers, residents said, disrupting farming villages, which could lead to increases in food prices for a country already struggling with double-digit inflation.

A police spokesperson did not immediately respond to calls to confirm the deaths of the farmers.

One resident, Alkali Mommodu, said he helped the military in its response and recovered 10 bodies.

Reuters

WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

'The Russians were waiting for us': Ukraine troops describe tougher fight than expected

They rode into a kill zone. The timing was off. Many men were lost. In the end, they recaptured the ruined village of Staromaiorske, claiming Ukraine's biggest advance for weeks.

Troops at the spearhead of Ukraine's counteroffensive say a battle last week along the front in the southeast proved to be tougher and bloodier than expected, with plans going awry and an enemy that was well-prepared.

"The Russians were waiting for us," said a 29-year-old soldier using the call-sign Bulat, from a unit sent into battle in armoured vehicles during last week's assault.

"They fired anti-tank weapons and grenade launchers at us. My vehicle drove over an anti-tank mine, but everything was ok, the vehicle took the hit, and everyone was alive. We dismounted and ran towards the cover. Because the most important is to find cover and then move on.”

Tales of the battle of Staromaiorske, recounted to Reuters near the frontline in southeastern Ukraine, give an indication of why Kyiv's boldest counteroffensive of the war, soon entering its third month, has proven a slower and bloodier slog than anticipated.

"Our mission was planned to take two days. But we couldn’t drive in during the darkness at the right time, for a few reasons. So we drove in later and lost the right moment," said Bulat.

Kyiv, which has received billions of dollars worth of equipment and training from Western countries to mount its counteroffensive to recapture occupied territory this summer, has acknowledged that its campaign is unfolding more slowly than expected. Commanders say the deliberate pace is needed to avoid high casualties.

The Russians have had months to prepare their fortifications and sow minefields. The Ukrainian attackers lack the air superiority that their NATO allies normally expect in their training drills.

The Russian defenders had set up "pre-sighted zones" in anticipation of the attack, said a 24-year-old Ukrainian marine with the call-sign "Dub".

"They methodically destroyed the roads. They made pits that prevented driving in and out of the village, even in dry weather. Even walking was quite hard. You can’t use flashlights at night, but you still have to advance.”

Another soldier, using the call-sign Pikachu, said men in his unit "tried our best. We made it."

"The dismount was not great," the soldier acknowledged. "We advanced slowly but surely. They were shooting, everything was flying. It was scary, but we moved on. Nobody fell back. Everyone did a great job.

"Many of us who went will never return home."

** Drones target Moscow, high-rise building hit

The Russian military said its anti-aircraft units had thwarted a Ukrainian "terrorist attack" early on Tuesday and downed drones targeting Moscow, but one drone, sent out of control by its units, struck the same high-rise tower hit earlier in the week.

Video obtained by Reuters showed a fiery ball exploding amid a loud boom by high-rise buildings in the Moskva Citi business complex. A plume of smoke billowed into the night sky.

"On the night of August 1st, an attempted terrorist attack by the Kyiv regime with lethal drones on targets in Moscow and Moscow region was thwarted," the Defence Ministry said in a statement on the Telegram messaging app.

Two drones, the Ministry said, had been downed in suburbs west of the city centre.

"Yet another (drone) was hit by radio-electronic equipment and, having run out of control, crashed on the territory of the complex of non-residential buildings at Moskva Citi," the ministry said, referring to a business centre in the capital.

Vnukovo airport, one of three major airports serving the capital briefly shut down, but later resumed full operations.

Emergency services, quoted by Tass news agency, said debris from the falling drone had been located and would be sent for technical expertise.

Earlier, Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin said one of the drones targeting the capital had flown into the same tower at Moskva Citi that had been struck earlier in the week.

"One flew into the same tower at the Moskva Citi complex hit previously. The facade has been damaged on the 21st floor. Glazing was destroyed over 150 square metres."

Sobyanin said no injuries were reported.

Moskva Citi was hit by a drone attacks last Sunday -- one of several such incidents which have caused limited damage but generated widespread unease.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the day following that incident that Ukrainian attacks on Moscow and other Russian targets were "acts of desperation" and that Russia was taking all measures possible to protect against strikes.

Ukraine rarely comments on incidents that take place on Russian territory in its war against Moscow, now in its 17th month.

But this week, in an oblique reference to drone attacks, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said the war "is returning to the territory of Russia - to its symbolic centres and military bases".

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

Russian defense chief provides new estimate of Ukrainian losses

Russian forces have stopped Ukraine’s much-hyped counteroffensive dead in its tracks, inflicting tens of thousands of casualties on Kiev’s troops, Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu said on Monday.

Speaking at a conference attended by senior military commanders, Shoigu noted that Kiev “is desperately throwing new forces in a bid to storm our positions” but the Russian military thwarted all breakthrough attempts by relying on well-built and organized defenses, adding that the endurance of military personnel played an instrumental role in the success.

As a result, in July, Ukraine lost 20,824 service members and 2,227 units of military equipment, including 10 German-supplied Leopard tanks, 11 US-made Bradley infantry fighting vehicles, and 50 self-propelled guns from several Western countries, the minister stated.

According to Shoigu, on July 26 and 27 alone Ukraine lost more than 400 service members and 31 tanks and other heavy weaponry near the settlement of Rabotino in Russia’s Zaporozhye Region. Last week, a video surfaced on social media purporting to show a “graveyard” of Bradleys filmed at the same location.

“It is obvious that the Western-supplied weapons are failing to bring success on the battlefield and only prolong the military conflict,” Shoigu said.

Short of any combat accomplishments, “the Kiev regime, with the support of its Western sponsors, is now focused on carrying out terrorist attacks on civilian infrastructure” in Russian cities, Shoigu noted, adding that Moscow has introduced additional security measures and ramped up attacks on Ukrainian military facilities. 

Kiev launched its much-anticipated counteroffensive against Russian defenses in the early days of June, but failed to gain any ground, according to the Defense Ministry in Moscow. Ukrainian officials have attributed the difficulties to delays in Western arms shipments, extensive minefields, lack of air support and stiff Russian resistance. 

Meanwhile, several media reports have suggested that Kiev’s Western allies have grown “alarmed” at the slow progress on the battlefield, while being “jolted” by Ukrainian losses in armor. In addition, a Financial Times report from late June suggested that future Western support would depend on the results of the counteroffensive, which have so far been underwhelming.

** Ex-Russian president sees benefit in Kiev’s refusal to talk

Kiev’s refusal to hold negotiations with Moscow has advantages, as it allows Russia to push on with accomplishing all of its military campaign goals in Ukraine, former President Dmitry Medvedev has said.

Writing on Telegram on Monday, Medvedev, who now serves as deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, expressed delight that the “decaying corpse of Ukraine” is being led by servile and “corrupt hustlers and stoned clowns who pray for their Western masters.”

He went on to describe Kiev’s decision to “put forward an unviable ‘peace formula’ while rejecting all other options for holding negotiations with foam at the mouth” as “extremely beneficial.” 

“All this will allow Russia to see the special military operation through to the very end. To the end of the Bandera regime. To the end of neo-Nazi ideology,” Medvedev said, referring to the notorious Ukrainian nationalist who collaborated with Germany during WWII.

According to the former president, Kiev’s policies will enable Moscow to eliminate all those “scumbags who brought death to many of their citizens for the sake of the money they stole from the West and in order to satisfy their malign ambitions.”

Since the early days of the Ukraine conflict, Russian officials have repeatedly signaled that they are open to talks with Kiev. However, in October 2022, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky signed a decree prohibiting talks with the current Russian government. The move came after four former Ukrainian regions overwhelmingly voted to join Russia in public referendums.

Later, the Ukrainian president floated a ten-point ‘peace formula’ that would require Moscow to withdraw all its troops from the territory Kiev claims as its own. Russia rejected the proposal as unacceptable, calling it a sign that Ukraine was not serious about talks.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said last week that the hostilities between Moscow and Kiev are rooted in the threats posed to Russia by the US and NATO, which he said “refuse to negotiate on the issues of ensuring equal security.”

Reuters/RT

The current leadership of the Nigerian Institute of International Affairs (NIIA) deserves commendation for being alive to its responsibilities in catalysing discussions on issues of global relevance to Nigeria. Precisely on July 13, it hosted a seminar, most appropriately themed, “Nigeria’s Foreign Policy under President Bola Tinubu: Which way forward?” It was my privilege to speak, albeit virtually, on “President Bola Tinubu, Nigerian Foreign Policy and the Expansion of Democracy in Africa,” at the well-attended event. As expected, the directions in which the panelists felt Nigeria should be headed under the Tinubu presidency were fully explored. My interrogation of its outlook on the expansion of democracy, of necessity, touched on some of the factors and forces that combine to challenge the democracy project in Africa. I do not intend to delay us here on this. It thus suffices to reaffirm my thesis that it is basically the failure of (democratic) governance, and the overall dysfunctionality of our governance structures and processes, across the continent, that reproduce democratic backsliding, the most dramatic manifestation of which is the phenomenon of coup d’état. The coups have now occurred in such regularity – since 2020 – to make the West African subregion ‘the coup belt’ of the continent. My focus in this piece is on how Nigeria should approach the evolving fluid but very dangerous situation in Niger Republic.

The situation is made particularly important for Nigeria, not just because Niger Republic is one of our contiguous northern neighbours, but one that is also in the vortex of terrorism and insurgency, administered by sundry armed non-state actors, including Boko Haram and ISWAP. As well, Nigeria has just been appointed as Chairman of the Authority of Heads of State and Government of our regional integration body, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) – the overall budget of which Nigeria is responsible for, to the tune of some 63%. All of these make Nigeria the natural candidate to superintend ECOWAS’ regional action on Niger. This now includes, since the regional body’s 30 July meeting in Abuja, the possibility of armed intervention to flush out the junta, and reinstate deposed President Mohamed Barzoum. The passion with which Tinubu spoke at his July 9 investiture as ECOWAS leader could not be ignored. His determination to defend and expand the frontiers of democracy on the continent is almost palpable, and probably understandable; after all, this is one politician whose political trajectory was forged, as it were, in the anvil of struggles for democracy.

Yet, it is important that Nigeria treads very carefully on the Niger situation, for a number of reasons.

When cast against the backdrop of the very noble interventions of Nigeria to bring back order to Liberia via the ECOWAS Monitoring Group (ECOMOG); in Sierra Leone, to put an end to a military coup, and reinstate the Tejan Kabbar government; or in President Olusegun Obasanjo’s bold engagement of the coup plotters that overthrew the government of Sao Tome and Principe, while the country’s leader, Fradique de Menezes, was visiting Nigeria, one would not but be tempted to see Nigeria replicating some or all of these efforts in Niger Republic. Trust him, Obasanjo even added a dramatic twist to the whole matter in 2003, by personally leading Menezes back to his country, to resume duties as president! Even so, the question remains, is Nigeria in a position to undertake any of these types of foreign policy expeditions today? My answer is in the negative; and the reasons are not farfetched.

My first concern is with the state of the Nigerian military. I monitored a discussion on one of Nigeria’s more notable television networks on Sunday night, in which an analyst repeatedly cited Nigeria’s military as ‘the most powerful on the African continent!’ Such a line obviously sounds good to the ears, if you were a Nigerian; but is this really true? Many credible sources indicate that South Africa, Egypt, and probably Morocco and Algeria too, could indeed be ahead of the Nigerian military in overall capability. Considered here are not just the number of men and women under arms; but also the capacity at local production of weapons of war, of all categories. There is also the factor of access to such munitions produced abroad that a country’s military may need in the event of war. This is defined in multiple and delicate diplomatic contours, such as may make access difficult for a country, even when it has the foreign exchange to pay for the weapons its military needs. This is not to talk of the volume of foreign exchange a country is in a position to deploy for these purchases, even where producers are not citing one reason or the other (including human rights orientations) to deny one access. We should recall that Nigeria had to purchase 13 A-29 Super Tucano fighter jets, for a whopping US$593 million sometime ago, under President Muhammadu Buhari. The first set of the planes – six of them – was delivered only in 2021, four years after all commitments were made. Is Nigeria in any position to readily come up with such funds today, for just 13 units of a fighting device? Your guess is as good as mine!

Of additional importance is the fact that the Nigeria military today seems bogged down, if not overwhelmed, by the extensive nature of its internal security engagements. This is not in any way to underestimate the very heroic efforts of our men and women in uniform, in guarding the commonwealth, in all directions. Rather, it is to underscore the point that the overall (in)security situation in Nigeria is so dire, as to make the military to be involved in one form of operation or the other, against determined and morbidly effective armed non-state actors, in virtually all the states of the federation. What comes to mind from this is, how feasible is it for Nigeria to make a clinical, effective and efficient military intervention in Niger Republic, directed at reinstating President Bazoum to power? I ask this against the backdrop of the critical economic crisis in which the country reels today, and argue that it was possible in the 1980s/1990s to be so deeply involved in Liberia, and make the type of swift military intervention in Sierra Leone, which ECOWAS seems to be suggesting for Niger Republic today, because Nigeria’s economic outlook then was several notches better than what is abroad today. This calls for caution vis-a-vis the ECOWAS ultimatum to the Niger junta, which, if push comes to shove, would be completely left, by the other member-states, in the hands of Nigeria, to execute.

It is doubtful if the state of internal cohesion in Nigeria is good enough for the country to embark upon a foreign expedition, the type envisaged by ECOWAS. The Buhari government unquestionably left a rather abysmal record in the way it managed Nigeria’s diversity. He practically left the country in a cesspool of intense and mutual ethno-religious distrust. The Tinubu government has a duty to carefully negotiate the cleavages that define Nigeria, if the existential challenge posed by his predecessor’s arrant lack of capacity, and negative attitude on same, is to be rested. Associated with this is the very acrimonious 2023 election, the outcome of which is still in hot contestation at the courts.

There is a place for the Diversionary Theory of foreign policy in the scholarship on International Relations. This essentially speaks to a situation in which a government, going through the type of stress underway in the Nigeria of today, latches onto risky foreign policy acts, with a view to diverting attention away. Such foreign policy engagement is also made the basis for mobilisation of support for the government. It is, however, not in all cases that such high-stake gambles come out in the desirable or desired manner. In the situation in which Nigeria has found itself today, defined by gargantuan economic challenges, tough nation-building hurdles to cross, deeply conflicting perspectives on the direction of social policies, etc., it may be too risky to embark upon a foreign military adventure, the outcome of which is not easily predictable. Nobody needs to be reminded of how seriously the American political process convulsed by reason of the Vietnam quagmire. None should be tasked to recall how the Afghanistan debacle was a precipitating factor in the collapse of the former Soviet Union. US President Joe Biden’s withdrawal of American forces from Afghanistan soon after he got into office could be regarded as precipitate, but it arguably remains his smartest foreign policy decision thus far, given the volume of blood, number of limbs, and quantum of dollars his country had lost in the treacherous terrain of Afghanistan!

I note also that everything that we have seen thus far suggests that the coup in Niger is very popular with the citizens of the country. Granted that the Nigeriens could be making the mistake of their lives, in assuming that the military junta is going to govern their country better than the fledgling civilian government it sacked, the coup is nevertheless popular. This accords with what we have seen in other francophone countries in the region, where a chain of wrong public policies, especially the vacation of fixed presidential tenures in their constitution, had left the populace exasperated, thereby making military coups feel like refreshing experiences. To send in a military expedition to flush out such a government as the one digging in, in Niger today, may not be a piece of cake, especially when such is going to be led by a country, which is itself practically bogged down by a bouquet of nation-building challenges.

Our Borno State is contiguous with Niger Republic. What would be the implication of an armed expedition to the country, which could be long drawn out, on the security situation in the state, where Governor Babagana Zulum’s creative, non-kinetic and patriotic interventions, which are bringing peace back to the state, may be completely dismantled? It is hardly defensible, from the point of view of the long-suffering populations that border Niger Republic, for Nigeria to go into such a dangerous intervention in our northern neighbour.

Many commentaries would seem to have carefully avoided weighing in on the geopolitics of the evolving situation in Niger. One wonders in this regard whether the ECOWAS leaders factored into their projections the possibility that the Wagner group of mercenaries could be in Niger, even before the expiration of their one-week deadline. It is obvious that this unusual non-state actor remains an effective foreign policy tool in the hands of Moscow, and remains so in spite of the embarrassment its armed protestation meant for the highly strategic President Vladimir Putin a few weeks ago. That Wagner is already deeply involved in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Guinea – all in the Sahel with Niger Republic – makes this projection quite plausible. Meanwhile, in the light of the challenges faced by France in the region, deriving from extant hostility to it from the juntas running these countries, the ousted Bazoum government in Niger was, to all intents and purposes, the last outpost of the West in the Sahel. What this implies is the possibility of projection of the growing tension between Russia and the West onto Niger, with grave consequences for whichever countries in the region allow themselves to be used as canon fodders, to fight an inevitable proxy war in the African country. This doesn’t look like a pleasant place for Nigeria to be.

Deriving from the foregoing is the need for Nigeria to be properly advised on the situation in Niger. No doubt, it is distasteful to have yet another coup in the West African sub-region, especially only a few days after Tinubu declared the phenomenon unacceptable on the continent. The lesson here is that government, especially in foreign policy matters, should be very circumspect in issuing whatever looks like ultimatums, or taking positions which have not been carefully thought through, and subjected to critical, nay, brutal examination vis-a-vis what capability the country possesses to deliver upon such. Secondly, it is my view that Nigeria’s focus now should be on encouraging African countries that are yet to fall under the threatening cloud of miliary coups to begin to prioritise the interests of their masses; desist from sabotaging their own constitutions; and strive at building inclusive systems, where no one is left behind from the entire political economy. This is the most important antidote to what Antonio Guterres, the UN chief, has now most aptly characterised as the coup epidemic sweeping through (West) Africa.

France obviously has the capacity to make an impactful intervention in Niger, including an armed one. In 2012 to 2013, it made such a clinical intervention in Mali, via Operation Barkhane, and saved Bamako from an impending jihadist onslaught. That Paris already has a standing force in Niger works to its advantage. Additionally, France has considerable strategic interests in Niger that are often marginalised in analysis. Niger is the fourth largest producer of uranium in the world. The industry is largely controlled by the French company, Areva (now Orano), and no less than 50% of the uranium produced in Niger ends up in France, providing some one-third of what powers the latter’s nuclear reactors. As one pundit puts it, graphically, every three out of four bulbs lighted in France, is through the grace of uranium imported from Niger. The Americans also maintain a drone base in the Sahelian country that could be in jeopardy as things unfold.

In the circumstances, it is in order for Nigeria to continue giving leadership to ECOWAS on the strong position it holds on Niger, including sustenance of the sanction regime already imposed, to wit ‘all measures necessary to restore constitutional order.’ It should, however, tread with caution on the subject of ‘the use of force’ directed at sacking the coup plotters. Ultimately, it would be safer for Nigeria to encourage French intervention in the incipient Niger conundrum, to flush out the junta and restore constitutional order, with Abuja offering only strong diplomatic backing to such an effort. By so doing, Nigeria would be able to achieve its specific objectives in Niger without having to risk further damage to its own internal processes, and global standing. Sending Nigerian troops into Niger Republic at these times, is, in my considered opinion, fraught with much danger. It should be avoided.

When, on 26th July, soldiers from the presidential guard deposed and detained Niger’s president Mohamed Bazoum, it became part of a concerning narrative about the growing frequency of coups in African countries in recent years. Since 2020, there have been coups in Chad, Mali, Guinea, Burkina Faso, Sudan and now Niger.

When you peel a little under the surface, you begin to unpack a telling pattern. The first is that all of the listed countries, except Sudan, are “former” French colonies. Except that they are quite “former”. The so-called Francophone  countries are routinely among the least developed countries on the African continent, with noticeably lower levels of human capital development when compared with the rest of African countries.

In recent years, social media platforms have increased awareness and growing debate among African youth and pan African intellectuals about the so-called “colonial tax”, which was a “deal” reached by France with “former” colonies, under which most of them have continued to use the CFA currency, even after France itself abandoned it for the Euros. This monetary arrangement effectively gives the French Treasury control of the foreign exchange reserves of “former colonies. As Senegalese development economist, Ndogo Sylla, noted, “the persistence of (this) neo-colonial monetary and financial relationships has favoured neither structural transformation nor regional integration, and has done even less for the economic development of the CFA countries, 9 out of 14 of which are among the Least Developed Countries.”

This neo-colonial arrangement meant that France has, for long, propped up de facto civilian dictatorships under the cover of pseudo democracies that have brought the countries nothing other than poverty and under-development. For decades on end, that is. Paul Biya of Cameroon, to mention one example, has now been “president” for 40 years. To maintain its hold on the continent, France has established military outposts in these countries.

The French approach is outdated and unenlightened, of course. It relies heavily on the assumption that the citizens of these countries, and other interested African countries, will remain perpetually ignorant and uninformed. A silly assumption in an age of social media. It also relies ostensibly on sheer force of might to maintain the status quo, against the current of growing public consciousness across the African continent. Opportunistic coupists are trying to latch onto simmering and growing anti imperialist fervour among Africa’s educated youth. They aren’t the only one, though.

Enter in opportunistic Russia, with its bands of ferocious mercenaries masquerading as anti-imperialist freedom fighters. Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner mercenary group, was waxing lyrical few days ago when he declared his support for the Nigerien coupists in their fight against “colonisation”. In truth, neither Prigozhin nor Putin is motivated by any lofty vision of emancipation and development of African countries. It is all about the desperate scramble for natural resources. No more, no less.

Africa is not the prospective bride courted by many suitors, noble and true. Rather. It is the bejeweled virgin that is struggling to break free from a gang of rapists and has now been offered help by a ruthless band of robbers hunting for jewels. Whither should she turn?

Nigerian president and other West African leader who met in Abuja must be well aware and wide awake. They will be foolish to launch an all out military intervention in Niger Republic, even as they should take a stand against unconstitutional usurpation of power by the milairy junta. There can be no lasting military solution to the Nigerien problem, like other countries that have witnessed similar coups in recent years. African leaders must look deeper to tackle the root causes of instability with a long term strategy, at the heart of which must be true and full independence of African states

and enthronement of genuine democratic order.