WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Ukraine's teenage boys fear a dark dilemma: Fight or run

A month before turning 18, Kyiv native Roman Biletskyi left his family and boarded a train westwards to escape Ukraine and any prospect of fighting in its grinding war.

"I delayed the decision until the very end," he told Reuters from his college dorm in Slovakia where he travelled to in February. "It was a one-way ticket."

Not all Ukrainian teenagers made the same call. Andriy Kotyk, by contrast, joined the army early in the war in 2022 after he turned 18.

"I thought everything through and decided I should sign up," Kotyk, clad in body armour and cradling an automatic rifle, said from his posting in Ukraine's northeastern Kharkiv region where he was awaiting vehicle repairs after surviving a drone attack.

"I said ... I will go to defend my homeland," he added. "It's better to serve than to run."

Ukraine has forbidden most adult males from leaving the country in the wake of Russia's full-scale invasion of February 2022. Reuters interviews with half a dozen young Ukrainians, as well as relatives, army recruitment officers and officials, point to a bleak dilemma facing thousands of boys and their families as adulthood looms: Should they stay or go?

Although most stay, some like Biletskyi have chosen to head abroad to avoid any prospect of injury or death in the trenches. As the war marches towards its third anniversary, Russia has the ascendancy and Ukraine is desperate to bolster its depleted and ageing ranks.

More than 190,000 Ukrainian boys aged between 14 and 17 have registered for temporary protected status in European Union countries since the conflict began, according to EU data, among millions of people who have fled the country.

While Ukraine's military call-up age is 25, having been lowered from 27 in the spring, there is growing pressure from allies to recruit more young people, a move Kyiv has rejected.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken told Reuters on Wednesday that Ukraine had tough decisions to make. "For example, getting younger people into the fight, we think, many of us think, is necessary. Right now, 18-25 year olds are not in the fight," he said in an interview.

The Ukrainian military and defence ministry didn't comment on recruitment details for this article.

'I GOT RID OF CHILDISH THOUGHTS'

Neither Biletskyi nor Kotyk said they regretted their choices.

"I thought I would regret it if I didn't go," said the former, who had been filled with dread as his 18th birthday approached. He recalled his family's agonising preparations to get him packed and on the road.

"The clock was ticking," added Biletskyi, who's now studying business management at a university in Slovakia's capital Bratislava. "We acted without any emotion. We all understood I had to go."

Kotyk had graduated from music school before the war made him feel duty-bound to enlist with the army along with four of his friends. His introduction to adulthood was to participate in Ukraine's liberation of the southern city of Kherson in late 2022.

"The first two military assignments were really, really scary," said the infantryman, who's now 21. "Then I got used to it."

He acknowledged the war had changed him profoundly - "I got rid of childish thoughts" - though still harbours hopes of returning to his passion of singing, someday, and marrying. He said he understood why many young men decided to leave the country, and didn't want to judge them, though the exodus stung because those who stayed to fight were stretched.

"All the guys are really tired, all need to be replaced."

Some senior officials, including then-foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba, have openly criticized men of conscription age living abroad while their compatriots are fighting and dying for their country.

This anger reflects an often-bitter debate in Ukrainian society over the rights and wrongs of fleeing the country during a war, raising the prospect of rancour and division when the war eventually ends and citizens begin to return from overseas.

FUTURES AT STAKE?

The average age of Ukrainian soldiers is in their 40s, according to the Canadian Ambassador to the country, Natalka Cmoc. Kyiv doesn't disclose such data.

The military needs more young fighters who can bring greater motivation and endurance to the campaign, said Volodymyr Davydiuk, a recruiter for the renowned Third Assault Brigade in Kyiv.

"Fighting for a 40-year-old and a 20-year-old are very different things," he added.

Kotyk's Khartia brigade is looking to boost recruitment among younger men who are reaching crossroads in their lives like leaving high school or graduating from university.

Danylo Velychko, who works in Khartia's recruitment, said young people made up just fraction of the brigade, with the average age of those applying running at above 32 years.

The need for more people is not restricted to the military in Ukraine, home to about 41 million people before the war, which has killed tens of thousands of people. The economy has been hit hard by the conflict, with severe labour shortages as citizens head to the frontlines, birth rates plummet and people flee abroad.

A total of 87,655 children were born in Ukraine in the first six months of 2024, down around a third from 132,595 born in the first half of 2021, according to state data.

Meanwhile, almost 7 million Ukrainians of all ages have left the country since the invasion, according to the United Nations. Almost 4.2 million were under the temporary protection of the EU at the end of September.

Kyiv is trying to stop more people leaving and encourage those overseas to return. On Tuesday, its parliament approved the appointment of a deputy premier to head a new ministry for national unity, which will work on policies to bring citizens back, government said.

It's not an easy sell, with Russia on the front foot, Ukraine's power system being shredded by missiles and uncertainty surrounding the future level of Western support after Donald Trump's U.S. election victory.

Svitlana Biletska, the mother of 18-year-old Biletskyi who is studying in Bratislava, held back tears as she recalled the moment she waved farewell to her son as his train pulled away from the platform at Kyiv station in February. She is nonetheless determined he shouldn't return anytime soon.

"It was very hard to make this decision, but I am absolutely confident that it was the correct one because this is about him having a future. I can't see how that would be possible at home now."

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

Ukraine preparing for end to conflict – media

Kiev’s public opposition to Western calls that it draft 18-year-olds for military service is part of a strategy for winning an election if the conflict with Moscow ends next spring, the Ukrainian outlet Strana has claimed.

Washington and its allies have publicly demanded the expansion of the draft to mobilize the 18-to-25 demographic, most recently on Wednesday, when US Secretary of State Antony Blinken made the argument in Brussels.

According to sources in the Ukrainian presidency, however, Kiev has opposed this as part of “a strategy to prepare for the scenario of a quick end to the war and the election afterward,” Strana reported on Thursday.

One possibility considered by Vladimir Zelensky is a negotiated end to the hostilities shortly after the inauguration of US President Donald Trump on January 20, the outlet said. The other option is that the talks will fail and the fighting will go on “for a long time.”

Public statements about lowering the mobilization age “are being made in case the war ends soon and there are elections, so that they can talk about how they saved the gene pool of the nation,” Strana’s source in Kiev said.

In case the talks fail and the fighting continues, the mobilization will have to be expanded sooner or later, “and Bankovaya will go for it, finding hundreds of reasons to explain the change in position,” the outlet’s source added, referring to the address of the Ukrainian president’s office.

Speaking to Reuters on Wednesday, Blinken argued that Kiev had “hard decisions” to make about further mobilization. Even if Ukraine got all the money and the ammunition it wanted from the West, Blinken said at a NATO press conference, “there have to be people on the front lines,” he said.

“Getting younger people into the fight, we think, many of us think, is necessary,” the US diplomat told Reuters. “Right now, 18- to 25-year-olds are not in the fight.”

The Russian Defense Ministry has estimated Ukraine’s losses at more than 500,000 since February 2022, though Zelensky has publicly admitted to less than a tenth of that. Kiev has sought to mobilize another 160,000 fighters in the coming months, to replenish depleted frontline units, as Russian forces gain ground.

Reuters/RT

I was watching the evening news on Monday night when two presenters used a word at different times that jolted me. I’ve heard and seen that word used often, especially by millennials and Gen Z, but I didn’t entirely pay heed because they were mostly in informal settings.

Anyways – I meant to write, anyway – I was jolted to hear that word, anyways, twice from two TV presenters on different programmes on the same station just minutes apart! My Use of English teachers would have beaten the straying “s” out of me if I had used that word even in error.

But that was at another time, before young adults invented more new words and other tokens of social expression, including memes and abbreviations, than at any other time in recent lexical history, thanks to technology and the prevalence of social media.

Words avant-garde

I’m trying to adjust, but I’m not quite there yet. And in this transition to a brave new world of avant-garde lexicography dominated by young adults, it’s improbable that I would have considered, anyways, a jarringly colloquial word, as proper form.

However, Oxford United Press (OUP), the bastion of rectitude, is leading the world in de-sensitising squeamishness in the use of the English language. In other words, sooner than later, I might well find myself loving and even using, anyways, in proper communication.

In a language and literary study in 2023 for the Word of the Year, OUP crowned “rizz” as the winner. The Press said it created a shortlist of eight words “all chosen to reflect the mood, ethos, and preoccupations” of the previous year and “rizz” emerged as the favourite after over 30,000 language lovers worldwide pared down the word soup to four finalists: rizz, Swiftie, prompt, and situationship.

Rizz up, darling!

In case you’re interested in a brief history of the etymology of how rizz might soon become mainstream, OUP explained that just as the fridge was from refrigerator and flu was from influenza, rizz (a noun), which can also be used as a verb, as in “to rizz up,” meaning to attract, seduce, or chat up), has its roots the word “charisma.”

I’m unsure which word might win OUP’s crown in 2024, but I have an in-vogue word slate that would be difficult to ignore. Perhaps lovers of language, especially millennials and Gen Z, the generational curators of these species of unusual words, might help crown a winner from my list for 2024 and share that list on any of my social media handles @azu ishiekwene or email This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.. Or text Word of the Year to +234 805 210 0356.

The first candidate for me is “steeze.” I was confused the first time I heard it and couldn’t immediately determine its meaning. An English language coach and content creator on Quora, Jasveer Kaur, described “steeze” as “A slang term which is a mix of ‘style’ and ‘ease’, that means ‘looking effortlessly cool, i.e., charisma or grace.” It’s a cousin of rizz, or “composure”, another synonym for steeze from the Gen Z corpus.

The lit vs the ill-lit

And how about “lit?” When I first heard that someone was “lit”, I thought they were alight, literally burning! It turned out that I was hugely mistaken. “Lit”, I later found out, means something different. It’s a slang derived from African American Vernacular English, which gained popularity in the 2000s. It’s been around for quite a while, but somehow, the “ill-lit” like me never quite thought it would soon be making its way to the mainstream.

But thanks to hip-hop and pop culture, it has become a favourite expression among millennials and Gen Z. If you say, “The concert last night was lit,” for example, or “Her performance in the game was lit,” there’s nothing more to add. It’s the highest expression of excitement and enthusiasm. In the same way, my father’s highest compliment was “noble”, as in “You’ve done noble!”

Rizz, lit, and dope, I’m told, are in the same class, with ritz (derived from the ostentation of Ritz, the famous hotel and hospitality brand) being at the higher end of the word spectrum.

Who’s the simp?

How about “simp”? It’s not exactly a new word. It has evolved, losing five original letters in the process, but gaining new meaning and currency with TikTokers. Back in the day, that word used to be “simpleton”, a man or woman generally thought or believed to be naïve, foolish. Hip-hop culture in the mouth of younger adults gave it a makeover.

They twisted it against men today, and now a simp is often used to describe a man who is overly anxious to please women. This seems to be the opposite of“demure,” a word formerly used to describe modesty in young ladies but now repurposed to convey cuteness in both sexes.

Instead of the ‘50-50 Love’, Teddy Pendergrass crooned about in his famous album, a “simp” is a man who doesn’t mind five percent or less back for his affection and empathy in exchange for 100 percent. He is if you get my drift, a woman wrapper.

If you are already “vibing”, millennial-speak for “losing oneself in great music or conversation”, or feeling “shook”, the colloquial noun or verb for “surprise”, then welcome to the evolving vocab world of young adults fostered by the Internet. From activism to fashion, sports and dating, the language topography is changing, leaving older adults in a trail of incomprehensible slang.

Simply steeze

In the slang line-up for 2024, anyways, steeze, lit, rizz, vibing, shook, and simp are in the race. But the stage would be incomplete without “ghost” (to suddenly stop communicating with someone, as in ‘he ghosted me after our last meeting’), “no cap”, (the damn truth, no embellishment), as in ‘petrol prices will never return to N470/litre, no cap, or “snack”, (someone attractive, as in ‘she’s looking like a snack in that outfit’).

While these words have a global resonance, one would undoubtedly be at the top of your final list if you were a Nigerian young adult—at home or in the Diaspora: “E choke!” The harsher, more menacing version is “Hunger dey!” However, this latter expression has a broader application and is quite popular among older adults.

When young Nigerian adults say, “E choke,” they express the country's severe economic hardship. This hardship has left many of them unable to have that sharwama or pizza, fix the braids they’d love to, or even chat for a long without resorting to data mincing.

This ethos was expressed in the streets of many Nigerian states in August, when protesters, mostly angry youths, staged demonstrations captioned #EndBadGovernance, the lightning rod for economic hardship. But the word is used in more than one sense. It also conveys overwhelming pleasure, as in “Give me more, even if it kills me!”

E choke!

My five finalists for the words that most captured younger adults' moods, feelings, imagination, and ethos in 2024 are e choke, steeze, no cap, vibing, and composure. I struggled to get the language tool on my laptop to accept these words. I had to overwrite them many times to retain them, as I wondered how examination bodies, like the West African Examination Council (WAEC), would cope with this lexical insurgency.

Is it an indication of the distance these words still have to travel in the transition from fad to mainstream? Or is society just too slow to catch up? No matter, as they say in millennia-speak, las, las, culture, language, and tool developers would be alright.

** Ishiekwene is the Editor-In-Chief of LEADERSHIP and author of the new book Writing for Media and Monetising It.

Key Takeaways

It's freeing to let go. Bruce Lee captured it perfectly: "It's not the daily increase but daily decrease. Hack away at the unessential." It's an idea that's turned businesses on their head and made life easier — one that's changed the definition of productivity and success in a world full of information and distractions.

In a time of endless options, every task and every decision can take our attention. But success isn't about doing more; it's about doing less and focusing only on what genuinely matters.

Now, let's discuss the daily decrease. This is about getting rid of every unessential task and distraction that takes us away from our core focus. When we let go of the excess, we have time, mental clarity and energy to build and grow. It's here where a thoughtful approach to delegation, process and minimalism really pays off.

The cost of the unessential

The problem is not that entrepreneurs don't have drive or ambition; it's that they spend their time doing unimportant, endless tasks. Non-urgent emails can be answered, you can get bogged down in micromanagement or do some minor administrative duties that steal precious hours that could be spent on strategic growth or creative work.

In essence, every unessential task robs you twice: It costs you, first, of the time it directly consumes, and second, of the compounded value you could have created with that time. It's a low-return, high-cost task and a distraction that needs to be eliminated.

Minimalism in business — focusing on the core

Minimalism isn't just about owning less stuff; it's about removing unnecessary actions, distractions and decisions. Picture yourself running your business with the mentality of only holding what actually brings value. All of a sudden, you're not weighed down by a thousand things to do. You're focused, present and making impactful decisions instead.

Minimalism in business means:

Hacking away at the unessential

But how do you know which tasks to keep and which to let go? The idea is to find the activities that are directly in line with your core vision and purpose. Below is a roadmap to get you started.

1. Identify your core tasks

Your core tasks are the things only you can do that directly contribute to the growth and vision of your business. This could be big-picture planning, relationship nurturing or innovating products and services.

Action: Write down every task you do in a week and highlight the ones that actually affect your business growth. These are your core tasks. Everything else? Elimination or delegation of candidates.

2. Embrace the art of delegation

Giving up control isn't delegation; it's an expansion of your reach. When you have a team that knows your vision, you can trust them to do routine or secondary tasks so you can focus on higher-value work. Done right, delegation allows you to focus on what's important.

Action: Begin with one or two tasks you do on a regular basis that don't demand your special contribution. Teach your team how to manage these with autonomy so you can focus on big-picture work.

3. Run systems without you

A scalable business is a process-driven business. Tasks run smoothly with a minimal amount of intervention, thanks to systems. Automate where you can and minimize human involvement where you don't need it, such as for repetitive tasks like reporting, email responses and scheduling.

Action: Automate things like invoicing, scheduling and even customer service queries. For this, tools like CRMs, scheduling software and chatbots are great.

4. Limit your daily decisions

Decision fatigue is real. The more decisions you make in a day, the less energy you have for important ones. Get rid of the decisions you don't need to make to simplify your day. Whether it's picking out your daily outfit or scheduling meetings, simplify your choices so you can spend more time on important decisions.

Action: Set up routines for low-impact areas of your life, like having a standard dress code, automating meal choices and a fixed daily schedule to be able to focus on work.

5. Batch similar tasks together

The mental toll of switching between different tasks is that you become less effective and more drained. Constantly switching between tasks is a drag, but batching similar tasks — like handling emails all at once or setting aside specific times for meetings — helps to mitigate this.

Action: Group tasks together and dedicate specific times during the day to handle those tasks. Set "no-meeting" days or "email hours" to protect your focus and increase productivity.

6. Audit and prune your to-do list regularly

To-do lists tend to pile up. Each week, take a hard look at your task list and prune out items that don't serve your core goals anymore. If you have a task that has been sitting there for weeks and doesn't help you in achieving your larger objectives, then let it go.

Action: Get into the habit of reviewing your task list every Friday. For every item you have, ask yourself if it still fits your goals. Delete it or delegate it if not.

7. Protect your creative space

Creativity and strategy need space to grow. When every moment is filled with tasks, that's impossible. Make time for reflection, big-picture thinking and rest. These moments of stillness and focus are where the most groundbreaking ideas come from.

Action: Carve out creative time each week where you can't be interrupted by meetings or routine tasks. This time is to be used to strategize, innovate or just recharge.

Reaping the rewards of time

What you end up with is a day full of purpose and clarity as you hack away at the unessential. This isn't about checking off a long list of tasks; it's about making sure the tasks you do are the tasks that move you closer to your vision. You reclaim time by delegating, automating and cutting out the non-essentials.

Focusing on fewer, high-impact activities isn't just freeing up your time; it's creating momentum. What if you could use that extra time to deepen relationships, explore new ideas or make strategic moves for your business? This focused attention on the things that matter is what makes a business good and then great.

Your time is your wealth. Money is always replaceable, but time is not. Don't let it be eaten up by the unessential. Instead, invest your time in things that are in line with your purpose, delegate the rest, and watch your impact and your satisfaction multiply.

Let go of the unnecessary. Hack away at the clutter.

Entrepreneur

The National Information Technology Development Agency (NITDA) has announced that foreign digital companies, including Google, Microsoft, TikTok, and others, paid a total of N2.55 trillion in taxes during the first half of 2024.

This figure was revealed in a statement issued on Tuesday by NITDA’s Director of Corporate Communications & Media Relations, Hadiza Umar. The data was sourced from the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) and the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

NITDA praised companies such as Google, Microsoft, X (formerly Twitter), and TikTok for their adherence to the Code of Practice for Interactive Computer Service Platforms and Internet Intermediaries. The Code, developed by the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC), the National Broadcasting Commission (NBC), and NITDA, sets guidelines aimed at promoting online safety and managing harmful content.

NITDA also emphasized that the regulatory framework has had a positive impact on government revenue, with digital companies contributing significantly through tax payments. The data showed that interactive computer service platforms and social media companies operating in Nigeria contributed over N2.55 trillion (around $1.5 billion) in taxes during the first half of 2024.

"This impressive revenue growth highlights how effective regulatory policies can foster compliance while driving economic growth in the digital sector," NITDA said.

Bitcoin has surpassed the $100,000 mark, continuing its impressive rally spurred by Donald Trump's election win. The latest surge follows a key announcement from the President-elect, who signaled a more favorable regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies with his choice of Paul Atkins as the next chair of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

Trump revealed on Wednesday that he plans to nominate Atkins, a former SEC commissioner during George W. Bush's presidency, known for his stance against excessive market regulation. This move has been seen as a positive signal for the crypto industry, fueling investor optimism.

Since Trump’s victory on November 5, Bitcoin has soared to new heights, climbing from $69,374 on Election Day to a peak of $101,512 on Wednesday. This marks a dramatic rebound from the cryptocurrency’s plunge below $17,000 two years ago, following the collapse of crypto exchange FTX.

While Bitcoin’s rise has been meteoric, it remains uncertain how long the digital currency will stay above the $100,000 threshold. As with all assets in the volatile crypto market, its future trajectory is unpredictable. While some investors remain optimistic about further gains, others continue to caution about the inherent risks.

Dele Farotimi, a prominent Nigerian human rights advocate, was arrested by the Ekiti State Police on Tuesday at his office in Lagos, sparking a wave of protests from legal experts, politicians, and civil society organizations. Farotimi is facing charges of defamation and cyberbullying linked to a petition filed by prominent lawyer Afe Babalola, after comments made by Farotimi in a book published in Lagos.

According to Ekiti State police spokesperson Sunday Abutu, the Ekiti police obtained an arrest warrant for Farotimi over allegations of libel. Farotimi was subsequently transported to Ekiti State, where he was arraigned in court on Wednesday, facing 16 counts of defamation. The activist, however, pleaded not guilty.

Farotimi had previously expressed concerns over the manner of his arrest, claiming that police officers from the Ekiti command were attempting to abduct him. He also emphasized that he had previously cooperated with the Zone 2 Police Headquarters in Lagos, where he was questioned about similar allegations. His comments about Afe Babalola were made in a book published in Lagos, not in Ekiti, raising questions about the jurisdiction of the charges.

The arrest has provoked widespread condemnation. The Nigerian Bar Association (NBA) has called for Farotimi's immediate release, arguing that defamation is no longer a criminal offense under Lagos State law. In a statement, NBA President Afam Osigwe pointed out that the Criminal Law of Lagos State, as amended in 2011, decriminalized defamation, affirming that the charges against Farotimi are baseless under the state’s legal framework.

"This troubling breach of the rule of law and the sanctity of the legal profession must not stand," Osigwe said, urging the authorities to investigate the police's actions and hold those responsible accountable.

Former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar also condemned the arrest, describing it as a “grim reminder of the dark days of military dictatorship.” He argued that the use of police power to address civil disputes, like defamation, was an overreach that undermined free speech and democracy. Atiku added that citizens should seek redress for defamation in court, not through the state’s security apparatus.

Femi Falana, a renowned lawyer and human rights activist, echoed similar concerns, stating that Lagos State had long decriminalized defamation, a position affirmed by the Supreme Court in 2021. He demanded Farotimi's unconditional release, calling the arrest an abuse of power and a violation of citizens’ rights.

Peter Obi, the 2023 presidential candidate of the Labour Party, also condemned the arrest, describing it as a misuse of police powers and an assault on democratic liberties. Obi emphasized that the right to free speech is constitutionally protected, and such actions are a worrying sign for the future of democracy in Nigeria.

The non-governmental organization Electoral College Nigeria (ECN) also weighed in, calling the arrest and detention a clear misuse of state power to intimidate and silence voices of dissent. ECN executive director Kunle Lawal expressed concern that such actions are undermining democratic values and eroding the rule of law.

As the controversy continues to unfold, many Nigerians are demanding the immediate and unconditional release of Dele Farotimi, stressing that his case is not just about one individual, but about safeguarding the broader principles of democracy and justice in the country.

Several travelers were killed on Wednesday in a tragic explosion along the Dansadau-Gusau road in Zamfara State, when bandits reportedly planted explosives on the road. The incident left lifeless bodies scattered by the roadside, sending shockwaves through the local community. The explosion occurred around 8 a.m. when a commercial driver, transporting passengers to Dansadau, accidentally detonated the device.

This deadly attack follows a similar incident just two days earlier. On Sunday, another explosive planted by bandits blew up a bridge in the Maru Local Government Area, claiming the life of one person. Residents believe the explosion was part of an attack by terrorists targeting Unguwar Galadima, a village in the area.

The Zamfara State Police Command has identified the newly emerging terrorist group, Lakurawa, as responsible for the explosions. Police Commissioner Muhammad Dalijan stated that the group had been under heavy pressure from Nigerian security forces and was attempting to flee to the Birnin-Gwari forest area. He said the Lakurawa group, suspected to be remnants of previous terrorist cells, has been planting explosives as part of their operations in the area.

“This is the second time within a week that explosives have been planted along the Dansadau road,” Dalijan said. He assured that security forces were intensifying efforts to track down and neutralize the terrorists. “We are confident that we will get them, and we urge the public to provide any useful information on their movements,” he added.

A local resident from Yar Tasha village reported that the bandits took advantage of recent community work on the road, planting the explosives at a spot where potholes had been filled. The residents, shocked and horrified by the rising violence, have called on the government to take decisive action to prevent further attacks and ensure the safety of road travelers.

Security forces, including police and soldiers, have been deployed to the area in response to the attacks. However, the fear of further explosions has made road travel increasingly perilous in the area.

Lebanon's Hezbollah aims to rebuild longer term despite Israeli blows, US intel says

Lebanon's Hezbollah has been significantly degraded militarily by Israel, but the Iran-backed group will likely try to rebuild its stockpiles and forces and pose a longterm threat to the U.S. and its regional allies, four sources briefed on updated U.S. intelligence told Reuters.

U.S. intelligence agencies assessed in recent weeks that Hezbollah, even amid Israel's military campaign, had begun to recruit new fighters and was trying to find ways to rearm through domestic production and by smuggling materials through Syria, said a senior U.S. official, an Israeli official and two U.S. lawmakers briefed on the intelligence, speaking on condition of anonymity.

It's unclear to what extent those efforts have slowed since last week when Hezbollah and Israel reached a shaky ceasefire, two of the sources said. The deal specifically prohibits Hezbollah from procuring weapons or weapons parts.

In recent days, Israel has tried to undercut Hezbollah's ability to rebuild its military forces, striking several Hezbollah rocket launchers in Lebanon, bombing border crossings with Syria, and blocking an Iranian aircraft suspected of ferrying weapons for the group.

U.S. intelligence agencies assess that Hezbollah is operating with limited firepower. It has lost more than half its weapons stockpiles and thousands of fighters during the conflict with Israel, reducing Tehran's overall military capacity to its lowest point in decades, according to the intelligence.

But Hezbollah has not been destroyed. It still maintains thousands of short-range rockets in Lebanon and it will try to rebuild using weapons factories in neighboring countries with available transport routes, the sources said.

One of the lawmakers said Hezbollah has been "knocked back" in the short term and had its ability to conduct command and control reduced. But the lawmaker added: "This organization is designed to be disrupted."

U.S. officials are concerned about Hezbollah's access to Syria, where Syrian rebels recently launched an offensive to retake government strongholds in Aleppo and Hama. Hezbollah has long used Syria as a safe haven and transport hub, taking military equipment and weapons from Iraq, through Syria and into Lebanon through the rugged border crossings.

Washington is trying to pressure Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to limit Hezbollah's operations, enlisting other countries in the region to help, a senior U.S. official said. Reuters reported on Monday that the U.S. and the United Arab Emirates have discussed possibly lifting sanctions on Assad if he peels himself away from Iran and cuts off weapons routes to Hezbollah.

Hezbollah officials have said the group will continue to function as a "resistance" against Israel, but its secretary general Naim Qassem has not brought up the group's weapons in recent speeches, including after the ceasefire was reached. Sources in Lebanon say Hezbollah's priority is rebuilding homes for its constituency after Israeli strikes destroyed swaths of Lebanon's south and the southern suburbs of Beirut.

The U.S. National Security Council and the Office of the Director for National Intelligence declined to comment on the updated U.S. intelligence.

TRAINING CHALLENGES

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said last week that Hezbollah had not been weakened by Israel's killing of many of its leaders since January and by its ground assault against the group since early October. He said Hezbollah had been able to reorganize and fight back effectively.

However, U.S. intelligence indicates that Israel has taken out thousands of Hezbollah's missiles in Lebanon, pushing cadres of its fighters back from the border with Israel, the sources told Reuters.

While tracking the exact number of Hezbollah fighters remains a challenge, the intelligence notes that the group will likely face significant training challenges for years to come, the sources said.

U.S. officials say Hezbollah's breakdown points to a growing gap in Iran's military capacity and raises doubts about its ability to use its proxies to attack Israel and its other adversaries in the short term. Iran also backs Hamas militants in the Gaza Strip and the Houthi group in Yemen.

In the past, had Israel considered bombing Iran, it faced the prospect of Hezbollah in Lebanon reciprocating, said a second U.S. official, but with Hezbollah weakened, Israel can attack Iran directly without the same threat to its north.

In Gaza, U.S. intelligence indicates Hamas can only sustain small, guerrilla-style tactics after having lost at least half of its fighters. The Houthis continue to launch missiles and drones from Yemen, but the U.S. has been able to intercept most.

The updated U.S. intelligence - briefed to senior officials and lawmakers in recent weeks - emerges ahead of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's Jan. 20 inauguration. The U.S. charged an Iranian man last month in connection with an alleged Iranian plot to assassinate Trump. Iran has rejected the accusation.

During his first term in office, Trump embraced a "maximum pressure" campaign on Iran, imposing harsh sanctions on Tehran, its military complex and its most lucrative economic sectors. Trump in 2018 pulled the U.S. out of a 2015 international agreement meant to deny Tehran the ability to build nuclear weapons. In 2020 Trump was responsible for a strike in Iraq that killed top Iranian military commander Qassem Soleimani.

Reuters

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

US House speaker rules out more Ukraine aid

The US House of Representatives will not consider President Joe Biden’s request to include $24 billion in additional aid to Ukraine in a government funding bill, Speaker Mike Johnson has said.

In the absence of a formal budget, the US government has been funded through “continuing resolutions” periodically approved by Congress. The White House has requested the $24 billion as part of its latest proposed legislation, which the House would need to adopt before adjourning for Christmas holidays.

“I’m not planning to do that,” Johnson said on Wednesday, at a press conference on Capitol Hill. “It is not the place of Joe Biden to make that decision now.”

The Louisiana Republican reminded reporters that he had predicted Donald Trump’s election would change the dynamics of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and make further US funding unnecessary, adding that this is precisely what’s been happening in recent weeks.

“We have a newly-elected president and we’re going to wait and take the new commander-in-chief’s direction on all of that,” Johnson said. “So I don’t expect any Ukraine funding to come up now.”

Since February 2022, the US Congress has approved more than $174 billion to prop up Ukraine in its ongoing military conflict with Russia. The latest batch of funding, amounting to $61 billion, was held up for several months amid a battle between Johnson and the White House.

The previous speaker, Kevin McCarthy, was ousted last October because a group of Republicans was outraged he had secretly negotiated with Democrats to get the Ukraine funding approved. The funding ended up stuck in Congress for almost six months, before it was approved in both the Senate and the House in April, with no concessions to the GOP.

WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Ukraine gives absconding soldiers second chance as forces dwindle

As Ukraine's military struggles to find enough troops, particularly infantry, to hold off Russia's much larger army, some units are giving a second chance to those who have absconded from service.

Data from the prosecutor's office shows nearly 95,000 criminal cases have been opened since 2022 against soldiers going "absent without leave" (AWOL) and for the more serious crime of battlefield desertion.

The number of cases has risen steeply with each year of the war: almost two-thirds of the total are from 2024. With many tens of thousands of troops killed or wounded, it is a depletion that Ukraine can ill afford.

Now, some units are replenishing their ranks by accepting soldiers previously declared AWOL.

One of them is Ukraine's elite 47th Brigade, which published a social media post last month inviting soldiers who had absconded to join.

"Our aim is to give every soldier the opportunity to come back into the fold and realise his potential," the post announced. In the first two days, the brigade said, over a hundred applications came in.

"There was a tsunami of applications; so many that we still aren't able to process them all before new ones come in," Viacheslav Smirnov, the 47th's head of recruitment, said two weeks after the announcement.

Two military units Reuters spoke to said they were only recruiting soldiers who had gone AWOL from their bases, rather than those who had deserted from combat.

The former is seen within the Ukrainian military as a lesser offence. A bill recently signed into law has in effect decriminalised a soldier's first disappearance, allowing them to return to service.

THOUSANDS OF UKRAINIAN SOLDIERS REJOIN AFTER ABSCONDING

Colonel Oleksandr Hrynchuk, deputy head of Ukraine's military police, told reporters on Tuesday that 6,000 AWOL soldiers had returned to service in the last month, including 3,000 in the 72 hours since the law was signed.

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Mykhailo Perets, an officer from the K-2 battalion of Ukraine's 54th Brigade, said his battalion had already hired over 30 men who had gone AWOL from other units.

"The reasons [for absconding] are very different: for some people it was too tough a transition straight from civilian life, others served for a year or two as qualified [drone] pilots but were then sent to the front line because there wasn't enough infantry."

Perets said those who had applied also included men who had become exhausted and run away after being at war for seven or eight years, having fought Russian-backed forces in eastern Ukraine before 2022.

Gil Barndollar, a non-resident fellow at the U.S.-based Defense Priorities think tank, said the increase in unauthorised absences was most likely driven by exhaustion.

Ukrainian service personnel have previously said how the lack of replacements for lost soldiers puts an unbearable strain on those remaining, exhausting them physically and mentally.

Barndollar also highlighted their average age as an additional strain.

"An army of men, often in poor health, in their 40s, all else being equal, is going to get exhausted sooner and is going to have morale problems faster than a reasonably fit army of 20- or 25-year-olds."

Zelenskiy has responded to questions about the manpower problem by arguing that Ukraine lacks weapons rather than people, and pushed back against U.S. pressure to lower the minimum draft age to 18 from 25.

He said in an interview with Sky News last week that Kyiv's allies had been able to provide the necessary equipment for only a quarter of the 10 new brigades Ukraine had formed over the past year.

RT/Reuters

After many years of guarding oil pipeline installations, the Nigerian Army finally made its first high-profile arrest. It turned out to be a journalist! Investigative journalist and founder of the Foundation for Investigative Journalism, Fisayo Soyombo became the face of the Army’s eventual success in apprehending oil thieves. Of course, they regularly announce arrests of some faceless and nameless people. Hardly anyone bothers to follow up on their prosecution. We have all been Nigerian long enough to know that some crimes persist in the country, not simply because the criminals are resilient but because the ring of perpetration is so institutionalised that it should be considered an extension of the civil service. That is essentially the story of oil bunkering in Nigeria.

We were all here in 2019 when the then Rivers governor Nyesom Wike accused the Nigerian Army of running illegal bunkering in Rivers State. He did not insinuate; Wike specifically accused the general officer commanding the Army’s 6 Division in Port Harcourt, Jamil Sarham, of using soldiers to steal and sell petroleum products in the region. In a country that takes itself seriously, that sort of accusation would neither be flippantly made nor lightly received. However, this is Nigeria. The only thing guaranteed to happen is nothing.

Wike did not say anything anyone did not already know. By the time you reach the end of organised crime in Nigeria, you will discover it is an appendage of the administrative state. Oil theft is run by legitimate state actors. When the government says it is looking for oil thieves, what they are searching for are the unemployed youths who carve out their own spaces outside of the massive extra-legal operations that the government has created for itself.

When finally released from detention, Soyombo granted an interview on AriseTV where he noted that the sensitive information he shared with the officers somehow ended up with the oil thieves. By leaking details of the information he gave them, they ensured they jeopardised the rest of his investigations. Still, congratulations! Even with that outcome, one can argue that the investigation succeeded in a way that would not have been so well-illustrated if you had published it in the most poetic language a poet could have mustered. If anyone was ever in doubt that the state and the so-called oil thieves are in cahoots, here is irrefutable proof.

But if there is something Soyombo’s series of explosive investigations has repeatedly proven, it is also that Nigeria does not take itself too seriously. Those serious enough about Nigeria and even demonstrating it by putting their lives on the line end up appearing to be doing too much. For instance, during his AriseTV interview, Soyombo mentioned his earlier investigation that revealed a child trafficking ring in the country and how the same state officials who should act have stonewalled him. I remember reading the publication open-mouthed, genuinely shocked that the process of giving a child out to adopters in the country was that lax. In a society where the earth has eyes, the jaw-dropping revelations should have led to reforms in the child adoption industry. Nigeria slacks in many areas, but you would be forgiven if you took it for granted that we would at least protect the most vulnerable among us. For nothing to happen, you realise that Nigeria cares for none of its children.

Then, in 2019, he investigated the corruption of the Nigerian Prison Service. He also put himself on the line for that fact-finding mission. One would think that the Nigerian government would at least meet him halfway, but for where? What eventually woke them up to the sordid reality of the NPS was Bobrisky. Yes, Bobrisky did that for us. Before you knew it, the interior minister, Olubunmi Tunji-Ojo, had announced an investigation. The National Assembly set up a fact-finding panel and even invited a social media rabble-rouser to testify before them. Then you wonder why the sudden seriousness. The knowledge they needed to act was available in the public sphere all along, but they were only aroused to their duties when the matter had to do with sex.

Come to think of it, maybe that is how the outcome of investigative journalism should be published in Nigeria. Perhaps that was what was missing all along! Attach sex to reports of investigation in any form, and the relevant agencies will be tempted to pay attention. Who knows, sex might finally motivate state officials to take decisive action over the rotten state of another bureaucracy where Soyombo has conducted a series of investigations: the Nigerian Customs Service. He has investigated the agency and published a series of reports, but the silence from the same administration that was awakened during the Bobrisky saga can wake even the dead.

The good book says we will know the truth, and the truth will free us, but Nigeria defies that hope. We know the truth, and even the truth knows us back, but we are not yet free. We have been compromised on every front by leaders who cannot bring themselves to even feign any interest in social progress. Under their watch, virtually every decadent institution is allowed to progressively decay. The lesser their structural integrity, the more pliable—and better readied—they are for the machinations of these tyrannical leaders. Their disinterest in arresting the rot means it keeps spreading, eating into every organ, every nerve, every cell, every bit of the society.

What is eating up our society from the inside is gnawing at the brains now, God help us! In several directions you look, nothing seems to be taken seriously. Here is a recent and unfunny example: The Nigerian Presidential Compressed Natural Gas Initiative employed the services of some comedians and singers (one, the musician Innocent Idibia, popularly called TuFace; two, Waris Olayinka Akinwande, the social media jokester popularly called Ola of Lagos; three, musician Dauda Kahutu Rarara, and comedian Bright Okpocha, whom everyone knows as Basket Mouth) on a fact-finding trip to India to learn about Compressed Natural Gas and convince Nigerians at home that it was safe for use. One wonders, if the FG is serious about swaying people towards CNG, why hire comedians and singers? Whatever happened to actual experts?

Imagine that you are an engineer with years of training in this area. You have been honing your skills (maybe even up to PhD level), waiting for the day you will be called to serve society with the knowledge. Then you wake up one day and learn that those called to the serious assignment are the amusers. Imagine the betrayal you will feel when you realise that you wasted time taking Nigeria too seriously. Please note that this is not an argument against entertainers as people who can also positively influence their society. There are countless examples of comedians playing the role of a society’s intellectuals, but expertise is expertise. If we have sincere questions about what CNG would mean for the life expectancy of vehicles that would need to be retrofitted, are comedians the right people to ask?

When it eventually dawns on you that Nigeria is not a serious country, it hits so hard that being struck by thunder would have been gentler. You realise that you have been investing your passion in a country that is not passionate enough about itself; you embarked on a redemption quest for a country that is just not ready. When the rage that seizes you finally subsides, you experience a calm within. That is the moment you come to full Nigerian maturity. And you know that because when they start another round of noise over one thing, one thing in the Nigerian streets, you just enter your own house and close the door.

The Cable